Graham Doeren Bracketology
@GrahamDoeren
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Co-host of the Unnamed Bracketology Podcast:
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Last Seen Profiles
Butler and Kentucky's resumes are closer than you might think...
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I can't call Kansas a lock for the overall number one seed.
But I don't know how the committee can say results matter and not have them there.
The Jayhawks are an absolutely awesome 17-6 vs Q1 with 8 Q1A wins.
Kansas is putting together one of the best resumes of all-time.
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February 3rd will be a gigantic hoops day, including:
Houston at Kansas
Duke at UNC
Tennessee at Kentucky
UConn at St John's
Iowa St at Baylor
Utah St at San Diego St
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Only ten teams have 3+ quad one wins.
While you probably expected to see Purdue, Houston, Arizona, etc. in this list, you might not have expected to see Grand Canyon & Dayton.
Both are in good shape for an at-large bid, especially the Flyers.
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154
How is Kansas still in a dead sprint with Iowa State and Baylor for the last 2 seed?
Just look at their wins against the field. They have five elite wins, three of which are against one seeds.
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148
Comparing Kentucky vs Kansas this morning.
Kansas's resume metric average = 12.5
Kentucky's = 18.5
Kansas is 15-9 vs quads 1/2
Kentucky is 8-8
Kansas OOC SOS = 37
Kentucky's = 167
The Jayhawks also won the head to head. The variable is injuries, but the resumes point to KU>UK
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146
Alabama and Auburn have been absolutely brutal against high level competition.
Other than playing each other, they're a combined 2-9 in games vs quad one.
#SEC
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129
The Maui semis are set.
1 Kansas vs 4 Marquette
2 Purdue vs 7 Tennessee
Other than the all one seed Final Four in 2008 (UNC, Memphis, UCLA, & Kansas), this Maui semifinal field is arguably better than any Final Four.
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121
Eight teams are top 15 in both their resume metrics average and their efficiency metrics average:
Purdue
Arizona
Marquette
Houston
Kansas
UConn
Tennessee
Baylor
Give me those eight vs the field for the national title.
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120
Final Four picks:
UCONN over Iowa St
BAYLOR over North Carolina
GONZAGA over Creighton
MARQUETTE over Houston
UCONN over Marquette for the title.
UPSET SPECIAL: Oakland over Kentucky
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The bubble picture in the ACC, Big Ten, and Big 12 entering Monday night's games.
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The Butler Bulldogs have more elite wins than the Wisconsin Badgers, Alabama Crimson Tide, Illinois Fighting Illini, BYU Cougars, and Auburn Tigers put together.
BUTLER - true road wins at Marquette & Creighton
WISCONSIN - win vs Marquette at home
ALL OTHERS: no elite wins
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I am one of only 6 bracketologists on Bracket Matrix to have Iowa in the field.
In the NET era, no top 45 team in Strength of Record with two true road wins over tournament teams has missed the field.
The Hawkeyes are 43rd in SOR and have road wins vs Northwestern & Michigan St
My last team in the tournament right now is Iowa, narrowly edging out St John's.
The Hawkeyes have road wins over Northwestern and Michigan State, as well as a neutral court win vs Seton Hall.
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98
Kansas simply isn't the same team without a healthy Kevin McCullar. The committee will have to evaluate his health.
BYU defeats Kansas to lock up a tournament bid. The Jayhawks move to a 3 seed with the uncertainty surrounding McCullar.
Iowa State's the beneficiary & moves up.
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95
Seton Hall replaces Nebraska in the bracket after picking up a monster road win at St John's.
Nebraska, Utah, Drake, and Wake Forest are the first four teams out.
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84
Marquette has the best win in college basketball, a dominant neutral court win vs Kansas.
But this FAU win is right behind it.
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There are five teams in the country with more quadrant 1 wins than overall losses.
Purdue, Houston, UConn, Kansas...
And the South Carolina Gamecocks.
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79
🚨 New Bracket
The last two teams in the field are Ole Miss and Villanova, just behind Virginia and New Mexico.
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73
Bracket drop:
Texas A&M, New Mexico, Providence, Iowa, Pitt, Wake Forest, & Kansas St are the first seven out.
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73
To me, the early story of the season from a bracket perspective is the rise of the Mountain West.
San Diego St & Colorado St are very likely going to be in.
New Mexico & Nevada should be in, too.
Utah St & Boise St are both in position to make at-large runs.
5+ bid league?
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The race for one seeds is shaping up. Here's how I see it.
NEARLY 🔒: Purdue
LIKELY: UConn, Houston
RIGHT THERE: Kansas, UNC, Arizona, Tennessee
STRONG CONTENDER: Marquette
LONGSHOTS: Wisconsin, Alabama, Baylor, Iowa State, Duke, Illinois, Creighton, Auburn, BYU
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@AdamZagoria
It's not the committee's fault that Seton Hall, St John's, and Providence didn't have better resumes.
Part of getting a 1, 2, and 3 seed is those teams running through their conference.
There are many valid reasons to criticize the selection committee this year. This isn't one.
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What the bracket MIGHT look like:
EAST
(1) UConn vs (5) San Diego St
(2) Iowa St vs (3) Illinois
WEST
(1) UNC vs (4) Alabama
(2) Arizona vs (3) Baylor
SOUTH
(1) Houston vs (4) Duke
(2) Marquette vs (11) NC St
MIDWEST
(1) Purdue vs (5) Gonzaga
(2) Tennessee vs (3) Creighton
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New bracket before tonight's games.
Feel really good about where I landed with these teams.
There's enough data that everyone kind of fell into place.
First Four Out: Cincinnati, Memphis, Drake, Providence
#bracketology
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Three teams have done as much damage against Q1A as the rest of the country combined:
Purdue (3) - Marquette (n), Tennessee (n), Gonzaga (n)
Marquette (3) - Kansas (n), UCLA (n), at Illinois
Kansas (2) - Tennessee (n), Kentucky (n)
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🚨 Announcement - 20 top bracketologists are launching a new competition this year.
It will consider not just what seeds teams get, but their exact overall seed and region/pod. These bracketologists were selected because they provide updates throughout the year and are proven.
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@SethDavisHoops
He was on the court in a defensive stance.
It should have been a technical.
I don't care who won that game, but how is this even debatable?
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50
Providence is in worse tournament shape than you probably think. The Friars only have 11 losses and they own home wins over Marquette, Creighton, & Wisconsin, along with road wins over Seton Hall & Xavier.
But they're just 8-11 vs quads 1-3 due to 10 of their 18 wins being Q4.
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Virginia's resume is not impressive, frankly.
But they've avoided bad losses and their resume metrics are relatively strong.
The Hoos have likely done enough to dance after their OT win over Boston College.
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UConn was number 1 in the NET this day last year.
Kansas was number 5 in the NET on December 13, 2021.
Virginia was number 1 in the NET on December 13, 2018.
So far, every national champ since the NET was released has been ranked top 5 of the NET on this date.
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Why are the Dayton Flyers 9th in KPI and 10th in Strength of Record?
1. Only 3 Q4 games played
2. An 8-2 record vs Q1/2/3
3. Five wins over quality competition away from home, three of which were true road games.
Dayton is in really terrific shape for a tournament bid.
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Robbie Hummel just said 'there's no bottom of the league this year' in the Big Ten.
🤔
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The committee either doesn't know about elevation being baked into BPI and Strength of Record or they simply didn't care.
The Mountain West got no love.
5
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In an absolutely wild turn of events, UVA went from looking like a tournament team with such nice resume metrics that they couldn't realistically be out to being my first team out of the tournament.
I am projecting that Oregon just stole Virginia's tournament bid.
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Trying to make sense of Purdue above Kansas, and it just doesn't make sense.
Kansas has four true road wins vs tournament teams with margins of victory between 9 & 28 points.
Purdue's only road win vs a tournament team is by 1 at Michigan St.
There's simply no defending it
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Nevada takes down Georgia Tech in Hawaii.
The Wolfpack's at-large hopes are in "don't screw it up" territory.
They're 12-1 with wins over Washington, TCU, and Georgia Tech.
On that note, that's a solid collection of wins. But they don't yet have a win over a team in the field.
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BPI's elevation adjustment seems to be negatively impacting not just Mountain West teams' BPI, but also the Strength of Record resume metric the committee uses.
Every single
@MountainWest
team is rated worse in Strength of Record than KPI or Wins Above Bubble (WAB).
@GloNevarez
ESPN's BPI, a predictive metric used on NCAAT team sheets, factors/seems to penalize altitude into its metric. Here's the highest-altitude arenas & their team's KP & BPI. A startling 40% diff on avg between them.
Affects teams in the Mountain West, Pac 12, Big 12, WAC & Big Sky.
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New bracket 🚨
First 6 Out: Villanova, Colorado, Drake, Texas A&M, James Madison, Pitt
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New bracket before Saturday games.
New Mexico, Arkansas, Michigan St, and UCLA are just out of the field.
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Live look at the top of the bracket:
1 - Purdue, Arizona, Houston, Kansas
2 - UConn, UNC, Tennessee, Wisconsin
3 - Baylor, Marquette, Kentucky, Memphis
4 - Illinois, Duke, Auburn, Creighton
Dayton is waiting just outside the four line.
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Remember before the season when people questioned if Kansas & Purdue should still be ranked 1st & 2nd since they lost exhibitions to Illinois & Arkansas?
They have since combined to defeat UConn, Arizona, Marquette, Tennessee (twice), Kentucky, Missouri, Xavier, Iowa, & Indiana.
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Texas Tech is up 4 late in Norman.
The Red Raiders are much closer to being in the bracket than they're being given credit for.
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39
St John's was the last team in my field today. It's clear they're good enough to be in the tournament.
But have they done enough to earn a bid? I would argue they haven't. Other than Creighton at home, their second best win is against Villanova in Philly (a non-tournament team).
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39
I'm going out on a limb and having Iowa St as my last 1 seed over UNC. The Tar Heels now have 4 losses in quad 2 to just one for Iowa St.
The Cyclones possess six Quad 1A wins to UNC's 4. The Cyclones have 9 wins vs single-digit seeds to just 4 for UNC.
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37
Think it's still early for bracketology?
At this time last year, 14 of my top 16 teams ended up 1-4 seeds in the actual bracket.
Of my top 46 teams, just 6 ended up missing the tournament.
The field is really starting to shape up.
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38
Let me be clear.
South Carolina is closer to a lock for the NCAA Tournament than Kentucky, Auburn, and Alabama.
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34
Tennessee, owners of the 4th ranked Strength of Record in the country, have 6 Q1A wins against top 7 seeds (including elite road wins vs Alabama, Kentucky, & Wisconsin).
Put into perspective, UNC has 5 wins against tournament teams while Arizona has 4.
Tennessee is a 1 seed.
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35
New tournament bracket.
Ole Miss, St John's, Colorado, Kansas State, and Memphis are the first five out.
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34
Both Memphis and Ohio State have re-emerged as serious bubble contenders.
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35
@trillydonovan
There is nothing more UConn than having just as many titles as conference opening wins the last 20 years.
0
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35
Don't tell me there's 'no elite teams' in college basketball.
Purdue, UConn, and Houston are all AWESOME.
1
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35
Below is my February 19, 2023 bracket.
Only 3 of my top 46 teams missed the final field. Every top 8 seed made the final bracket.
Two 9 seeds (Oklahoma St & Rutgers) missed the final bracket, but were 2 of the first 3 teams out. 11 seed WISC also missed.
March is near...
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32
The NCAA should make the Selection Show a draft.
The committee seeds the field 1-68, and then the four number 1 seeds select which teams they want in their region.
For example, this year Alabama might have Kansas St as their 3, then Houston chooses Xavier, Kansas chooses Baylor
3
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34
New bracket before Thursday night's games...
Richmond, Butler, Virginia Tech, and Cincinnati are the first four out.
5
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32
@HeatCheckCBB
Best college basketball season of my lifetime.
EVERYONE IN 2008: I know there's never been an all 1 seed Final Four, but I'm still picking UNC, Kansas, Memphis, & UCLA to get to San Antonio.
1
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29
I believe all of Indiana State, Virginia, and Seton Hall had their bids stolen today.
That means FAU, Michigan State, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma are First Four-bound.
10
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32
No team has made March Madness with a NET ranking of 40+ and a Strength of Record (SOR) of 60+.
Current ranks:
🦬Colorado (NET 42, SOR 60)
👨🌾Texas A&M (NET 50, SOR 61)
⛈️St John's (NET 49, SOR 68)
🦃Virginia Tech (NET 52, SOR 70)
😾Pitt (NET 56, SOR 67)
3
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31
The bubble picture in the Big East, Mountain West, and Pac 12.
The Mountain West looks almost certain to have more tournament teams than the Pac 12.
6
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32
Of the teams I had in the bracket at this time last year, all but 6 finished seeded on that exact seed or within 1 seed.
Today cleared up a lot. I am seeing separation at every level of the bracket.
Your team will likely finish within 1 seed line of where I have them tomorrow.
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31
My current bracket. The only possible change now involves Temple pulling an upset and altering the 13-16 lines.
5
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31
Gonzaga is 0-4 vs the NET top 80.
That's not a tournament quality resume. Gonzaga drops all the way out of the field after losing at home to San Diego State.
The Aztecs move up to a 6 seed.
2
3
30
I'm blown away by this committee reveal.
They don't seem to have vision of what they're looking for; inconsistent.
For some teams, efficiency seems paramount. For others, irrelevant.
For some teams, quality wins seems to completely carry them. For others, not given much value
1
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29
Below's the bracket I'd create if I were in charge of selection & seeding.
It is NOT my prediction of what the committee will do.
Teams in green are those that I think should be higher seeded than I predict the committee will seed them.
Red = a worse seed than I'm predicting
5
2
29
Texas A&M has quickly turned around their season.
Their terrific wins may be enough to overlook their bad losses.
5
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29
don't get too excited about Auburn picking up their 2nd quad 1 win of the year.
South Carolina is going to lose by so much that this will become a Q2 game.
3
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29
Barring a major comeback by Temple, below is my final bracket for the season.
Thank you for following this season. Love the interaction & giving me a platform to share my passion. Enjoy March Madness.
My current bracket. The only possible change now involves Temple pulling an upset and altering the 13-16 lines.
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28
Me: Holy cow! Purdue is absolutely killing it against quadrant 1.
Committee: Yeah, but did you see Houston beat Louisiana-Monroe, 84-31?
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28
One thing that makes me no sense to me is why the selection committee uses road record now instead of road/neutral record.
Nobody plays a true road game in the tournament.
If anything, aren't neutral court games the best indicator of all?
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27
It appears more likely than not that a six-bid Mountain West will happen.
Lots of ball to play, but Nevada, Boise St, and New Mexico all look likely to join San Diego St, Colorado State, and Utah State in the bracket.
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27
If UConn's all-time Final Four win percentage was a college basketball season, they'd be 33-3.
1
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26
New Sunday morning bracket for you.
I feel good about where every team is at. We have enough data that teams are naturally starting to settle into their spots on the overall seed list.
The Drake Bulldogs capture the last at-large spot, giving the Missouri Valley two bids.
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27
The NCAA Tournament is wild.
As a reward for the most Q1 wins ever, Kansas draws Arkansas.
Meanwhile, their rival Missouri gets Princeton.
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27
Nevada has a road win vs Utah St, San Diego St has a road win vs Gonzaga & a neutral court win vs St Mary's, and Boise St has a sweep of SDSU.
But with a sweep of Boise St, no bad losses, an 8-4 road record, & a MWC outright title, I think Utah St is best positioned for seeding.
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27
Here's the complete list of every team to ever get an at-large with a 40+ NET & a 60+ Strength of Record:
...
Here's teams that have a 40+ NET & a 60+ Strength of Record:
Texas A&M
Wake Forest
Nevada
Miami
Villanova
Drake
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11 seeds:
41 Colorado 🦬
42 Michigan St 🪖
43 Drake (🔒) 🐶
44 St John's 🌩️
45 Indiana St 🌲
46 Richmond 🕷️
Other than Drake, these teams are desperate to perform in their conference tournaments.
Colorado lacks top notch wins, but their metrics are pretty strong.
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26
Only one team has missed the tournament in the NET era with 16+ quad 1/2/3 wins and 7+ quad 1/2 wins (2019 TCU).
A team that might be looking better for a bid than they're getting credit for is Drake.
The Bulldogs can reach those marks if they win at UNI and beat Bradley twice.
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26
UConn, Alabama, Illinois, or Clemson will play in the National Championship. 🏆
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26
It'll be fascinating to see what the committee does with Kansas.
The Jayhawks are 8th in Strength of Record and 9th in KPI. Without McCullar and Dickinson, they're not able to score vs Cincinnati. My gut is the committee will hold the result against them and drop them to a 4.
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25
Illinois loses at home to Maryland and drops to a 5 seed.
The Dayton Flyers replace them on the 4 line.
Utah falls at Stanford, dropping to a 7 seed. Villanova replaces the Utes as a 6 seed.
1
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25
Overall seed list entering Tuesday's games...
Iowa St tumbles to 26th overall (7 seed).
West Virginia rises to the 9 line (35th overall).
Nevada moves to the first team to avoid the First Four, falling to 42nd overall (11 seed).
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24
Here are my 3 seeds, and why I have them there. Feel free to ask questions & I'll try my best to respond.
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24
I'm in the minority for bracketologists, but I have Michigan State in the First Four right now.
I think they may miss the field entirely if they lose to Minnesota today.
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24
The bracket has opened up for Illinois.
Morehead State & Duquesne is their Sweet 16 path.
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24
Before the tournament, I predicted Houston to beat Duke, Marquette to beat NC State, Gonzaga to beat Purdue, and Creighton to beat Tennessee.
May as well stick with it.
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My last team in the tournament right now is Iowa, narrowly edging out St John's.
The Hawkeyes have road wins over Northwestern and Michigan State, as well as a neutral court win vs Seton Hall.
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Thanks to everyone who has followed & interacted w/ my brackets.
I do this because I love the debate & discussion. I try to show my reasoning for decisions so you at least get where I'm coming from, even when I'm wrong
I keep making new bracket friends. For that, I'm grateful
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My predictions for today's winners. Make sure to laugh later today.
Miss St
BYU
Creighton
Arizona
UNC
Illinois
Oregon
Nevada
Texas
Oakland
Gonzaga
Iowa St
Tennessee
NC State
Kansas
Washington St
4
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23
Alabama's defense is shockingly bad.
I don't even know if 'defense' is the right word for what they do.
3
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23
New Sunday bracket.
FAU and Virginia take big tumbles.
3
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23
Current six line:
21 San Diego St
22 Nevada
23 Texas Tech
24 Gonzaga
There's a gap between 23 and 24 overall. SDSU, Nevada, and Texas Tech all fit perfectly as 6 seeds.
The Zags have a diverse profile that could be anywhere between a 5-8 seed. Their awesome road wins carry.
2
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23
Vegas's 2025 college basketball consensus top 12 rankings (based on title odds):
1. Kansas
2. UConn
3. Duke
4. Houston
5. UNC
6. Alabama
7. Gonzaga
8. Baylor
9. Arizona
10. Auburn
11. Kentucky
12. Iowa State
John Calipari's Arkansas Razorbacks are 13th.
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