bedouin
@bedouincap
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amateur historian and market dilettante. of the desert.
Joined November 2010
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It’s like the Japanese soldiers who never heard that WW2 was over
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Anybody in the gym at 10PM on a Saturday night is not here to get fit, they’re here for revenge
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Long CEOs who wear Apple watches or timex ironmans. Short CEOs who wear Rolex / Patek. Easy money
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Ruthlessly competitive, capital intensive, low customer loyalty, rising costs
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More Sequoia drama in the FT, and as usual the real story is in the comments section 🔥
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3 phases of investor bro
1. Graham. Buffett. Cigar butts. <1x book value.
2. Terry Smith. Wonderful businesses. Quality. Compounders.
3. Capital Returns. Druck. Grant’s observer. “It’s all just flows man.”
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I often think about how the U.S. economy overallocates talent to the financial industry, and the financial industry overallocates time to formatting. This is why we haven’t been on the moon since Nixon.
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If one more person quotes $FB on an EBITDA multiple to me, a company which plows 35% of EBITDA into capex, imma snap
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FAAMG spent $150Bn on R&D in 2021, most of it in America. That is significantly higher than DoD’s R&D spend of $105Bn. What an incredible thing for this country.
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“Spaniards retire young (at 60.7 on average), live long (83.5 years on average) and get generous pensions (80% of pre-retirement earnings against an average of 62% in the oecd, a club mostly of rich countries).”
Spain’s balance sheet very much ngmi
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Headcount efficiency comparison across high quality public names
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A moment of silence for all their VPs who not only get no proceeds from this but also now have to work at Blackrock
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We need to have a real discussion as to whether PE returns of the last 10 years have come from underlying fundamental performance of the investments, or from an ever-increasing amount of PE capital chasing a relatively fixed opportunity set
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“The world’s biggest 25 investors by assets under management—including pension funds, insurers and sovereign funds that together manage $22trn—now hold 9% of their assets in private markets, twice the share in 2011.”
We are so early $BX $KKR $APO
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Remember when Tiger breathlessly disrupted all of Silicon Valley by … simply working 12 hours a day
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Howard Marks selling Oaktree to $BAM for $5bn in 2019 right before multiples for all the public alts ripped higher
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One funny trend I've observed at my firm is the founders and partners wearing apple watches, while the analysts and admins wear Rolex, etc. Wonder what that means ...
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$SE is the GOAT "get paid in '20/'21 and shut down your fund in '22" stock
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Banking analysts on spaces spitting game with 80 anonymous listeners tuned in
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There is no alpha in listening to Invest Like the Best, for the same reason there is no alpha in reading Matt Levine
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House prices +20% YoY in America and Australia. Complete inelasticity of supply due to NIMBY-ism and regulatory capture. Buying out of reach for most and rents as a % of wages at all time highs. Residential real estate investors sitting on a powder keg.
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Marc Rowan is the smartest CEO in the financial services industry. That guy is not going to lose.
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Burberry is now at Mar-20 share price levels, currently 7x '24 EBITDA ex-IFRS. Sentiment and fundies at a trough, could be a long? Maybe it becomes an Arnault fixer-upper acquisition (he needs bigger deals and its chunky). Founded in 1856 and Arnault loves the 19th century...
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“Life’s barely long enough to get good at one thing, so be careful what you get good at.”
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The mid-range apartment rental market in NYC is not jiving with the weakness in the white collar labor market. Rents feel like they need to come down
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The seminal moment in your dietary life is when you shift from optimizing for how you feel while eating the food, to how you feel after eating the food.
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I’m increasingly convinced that the surest way to achieve right tail outcomes in PE is to find out what assets strategics want to own, and get to those before they do.
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I’m reluctantly coming around to the notion that living in a place with cold/gloomy weather is a critical productivity enhancer
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If London had good weather it would be the best place to live in the world
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I exclusively dine at ethnic restaurants in the outer boroughs. I refuse to eat anywhere that accepts Amex. I will not explain.
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$ALGN is down -70% YTD, trading at 21x fwd EPS vs. 50x L5Y average. Street is worried about volumes heading into a consumer recession given a discretionary, high-ticket product, but this is a 15% market share product that should be 90% (if you've ever had braces, you know this)
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Buying a compounder stonk is like buying this at a 2.8% cap. Same tiny entry yield. Same bet that your “quality” asset will compound earnings increases long enough to bail you out of your tiny entry yield. Yet all the twitter guys are clowning whatever boomer bought this deal
Never forget that someone bought this In-N-Out Burger at a 2.8% cap rate last year
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$DHR is purpose-built to compound EPS at low teens %. Anytime it gets close to long-term historical average multiples, becomes very hard to ignore. It's now ~2 turns off of 5-yr avg P/E.
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“I am asking 12x - 14x for my $1.5M EBITDA business with 70% customer concentration.”
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Boeing will absolutely not be allowed to fail. We Americans only believe in free markets when we are the ones dominating them
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California remains the best combination of economic opportunity and quality of life in the U.S. and, by extension, the world. Sentiment on CA is v weak rn so might be time to get levered long.
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Meat consumption was a key accelerator in human evolution. The concentrated protein provided by meat freed Homo erectus from continuously scavenging, and allowed for leisure and the gestation of early culture and language.
Veganism, not meat consumption, is regressive.
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GIP deal is yet another reminder the Marks and team absolutely bottom ticked GP valuations when they sold Oaktree
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I absolutely love the little stylistic / grammatical edits I get from K&E/Latham, it's like the world's most egregiously expensive spellcheck.
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[Web3 is] “a hustlers’ paradise with a 24/7 non-stop casino built on a Cambrian explosion of slot machines, with each machine grown out of a different facet of human culture whose likeness has been co-opted to seduce you into gambling more.”
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Don't let current events distract you from the fact that Defense is generally a low quality business. Lumpy, unpredictable, highly concentrated, challenging profitability dynamics (e.g. cost-plus work), historical liabilities, high-skill labor intensive, politically fraught.
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Guys you know you can just back lever $GOOG with a non-mark to market PLOC from First Republic right?
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There is no pain in sports like hearing “Westbrook, shot clock at 3…”
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Doordash, Postmates, Uber et al. all going to shit these days. Maybe business models predicated on abusing unskilled labor are not that durable after all…
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Is there any reason Berkshire Hathaway should continue to exist in its current form after Buffett is gone?
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10-page LOIs are the performance art of the buyside. Spending a weekend wordsmithing like we’re Nabokov when the seller is going flip straight to the purchase price section....
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Lol $SMIT. So let me get this straight, ex-military activist investor guy installs himself as CEO of microcap measurement device co., divests a chunk of the biz with talk of returning capital, etc. Then turns around and acquires
@amplehills
, a money losing NYC ice cream parlor?
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$SPY 3-yr CAGR = 19%.
$NFLX and $FB well below that now, $AMZN could join soon. The game is hard.
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Remember the era of straight-up candy (gushers, fruit roll-ups, etc.) masquerading as nutritious school snacks for kids? Big CPG companies have a lot of answering to do
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Unless he has some gnarly non-compete in place (doubt he would given his legal acumen), I struggle to understand why Matt Levine doesn’t pull a Ben Thompson and sell an independent newsletter. Economics of 100k subs paying a couple $ / month get pretty wild pretty fast.
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Tax receivable agreements are such shenanigans lmao how do public investors let this slide
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"India’s total fertility rate has fallen below 2.1, which is below the “replacement” level."
"Last year the number of deaths in China, at 10.1m, approached the number of births, suggesting that the Chinese population may soon start to shrink."
Scary for LT economic growth.
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@IgnoreNarrative
The venn diagram of people who are into lumber and people who dig Bon Iver is just one circle
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In an incredible reversal of fortunes vs the past couple centuries, the UK has become underrated. Their cinema, clothing, hotels, parks all still hit. Food also way outperforms reputation
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I don’t know anything, but listening to Druck talk out of both sides of his mouth for an hour and then having the VC guys on here bowing down is a bit confusing
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Elon next time TSLA is in danger of missing its numbers
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$HEI is bulletproof, man. One of the few compounders that’s green YTD. It’s like a boomer NFT that never goes down.
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Even the lawyers aren’t wearing ties in their meetings with us anymore. Short Hermes
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Adobe Acrobat is becoming increasingly unstable / glitchy. How can a $250bn company not get a PDF reader perfectly right?
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Nothing holds value like a black Toyota Camry, basically gold bars at this point
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I’ve been thinking recently about the merits of multi-generational households, which are the norm in much of the global East, but are rarer in the West. Does anyone have experience living with both your kids and their grandparents under one roof?
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The world’s richest man title should really be called “guy whose business is over-earning the most at the moment”
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I wonder what the iPhone product roadmap looks like. Literally, what format the doc is and where it is stored
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Your reminder that the enforceability of the claim is as important as the underlying asset you are buying
$baba 👀
RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK ORDERS MARKET PLAYERS TO REJECT FOREIGN CLIENTS' BIDS TO SELL RUSSIAN SECURITIES FROM 0400 GMT ON FEB 28 — CENTRAL BANK DOCUMENT SEEN BY REUTERS
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We haven’t had a sunny saturday in NYC this entire autumn. Taxes are too high for this bs
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It’s deep winter aka where I only listen to Bon Iver for 3 months straight
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Someone said that NYC is more akin to the great Asian cities (HK, Tokyo, Singapore) than it is to the great European cities, and the more I reflect on it the more I agree. The verticality + shallowness
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Heico's valuation has never made sense but the stock just goes up and up and up
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Everybody wanna be an alpha male, but nobody wanna generate alpha smh
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Been too long since I’ve been yelled at for 75 minutes about how Young Thug is a musical genius. The LA homies are slacking
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Every week before the housekeeper comes, my wife insists we do a pre-clean. Can someone decipher this phenomenon
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Me: Can we issue this new hire some options?
Latham: "Now, therefore, in consideration of the premises and the mutual covenants set forth herein and for other good and valuable consideration, the receipt and sufficiency of which are hereby acknowledged ..."
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I think it’s lost on people how if the pandemic happened just 10 years ago, how much worse the economic impact would’ve been. Internet speeds and cloud applications are so recent and really saved our bacon
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$DPZ being able to maintain their pricing in the face of 8% - 10% inflation in their food costs is remarkable, and a testament to the scale advantage and efficiency of the business. Competitors unlikely to be able to hold the line in the same way, widening DPZ's moat.
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@guessworkinvest
Just eat it and get your deal done man. If you picked a good asset won’t matter in the long run.
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