Abe Murray
@abemurray
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General Partner @Alley_Corp | Deep Tech 🤖 🦾 | Founder · Builder · Eng | Android · Google AI · Verily · k12 dropout | Stoic techno optimist 📈
Cohasset, MA
Joined January 2008
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Contradiction alert - 90% of VC dollars target software, yet 60% of VC returns will come from deep tech hardware such as robotics. 🔬 🤖
So why aren't more VCs digging deep tech? Lux Capital, among others, has been telling us it's where the cool kids are! 😎 📈
If this is
New Alley Robotics Ventures newsletter dropped this morning - give it a look over here and let us know what you think! Trying something new - splitting news rollup (next week) with synthesis and fund update (this week).
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No. I will not use cold water all the time. I will build a future of abundance and fix the problems in the way of living a comfortable life - for myself, for everyone. This attitude is giving up. I will not give up.
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Non consensus view: AI is already a commodity. OpenAI was not as good as Google’s best internal stuff (I know, was there, worked with teams building Google’s stuff). But they shipped faster and better.
No one is 10x better, and OSS models are following fast. The winner will
Apple will probably win LLMs.
They'll release a model that runs locally/native on your iPhone, is good enough, has great privacy/security and has access to all your personal data.
The advantages of larger foundation models will be negligible for 99% of tasks.
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I hate regulation but …. hear me out on this one.
The US *must* make it illegal to show those stupid cookie popups all over the web.
We can’t allow the EU to export its stupid paternalistic pollution to us here in the land of freedom.
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@bengrossbg
@Zach_A_Palmer
So then make your own billion and donate it. I can’t give a crap how other people spend their money. Nor do I want to confiscate it and force different choices if I disagree with them. Just don’t get this outrage / upset.
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So my kid's private school had a speaker today speaking favorably about degrowth 😡💢
This at an awesome STEM school where kids build cool shit. These are e/acc kids! 🤖📈
I have already offered to give a pro-growth pro-capitalism e/acc talk as a rebuttal - guaranteed my talk
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@cloverhogan
Strong disagree. We'll keep solving these problems. I'll take this bet all day long. 50, 100 years from now - more humans, thriving more, and we'll have tackled the real challenges you're raising.
@JKSteinberger
@design_robot
Jumping in here to say that a human cognitive failure is to see things as worse than they are. This feels like more of the same. Books like Progress Paradox, Factfulness, Numbers Don’t Lie and so on show all of this hand wringing to be knocked down by numeracy.
We need more
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@andrewglynch
@MPrinParr
Original thread excellent. Mid 40’s, 1st of 3 kids just graduating high school. Very happy family life. Few thoughts:
1. Have more kids. Just do it.
2. Carve time for wife and kids. No excuses. Be as consistent as possible, show up. Stay fit too.
3. I gave up “hobbies”
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@erikbryn
Huge CHIPS and IRA impact I’d think - and both of those are still ramping. Nearshore / reshore seems real from conversations I’m having.
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@paulg
The stoics spoke on this - I think Seneca said it’s our job to make people comfortable around us. I try and keep that in mind.
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@thechosenberg
Atheist or not (and I am) I often think how Jesus explained heaven is all around us - we just have to choose to experience it.
Conversely so too is hell. Many choose suffering when they could choose joy.
You can be happy now, or miserable now. Choose well!
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I'm here to build up the robotics / smart hardware community. 🤖🧑🏽🤝🧑🏼❤️
This community will grow by orders of magnitude in coming years. 🤖📈🔥
Folks playing this game now will be huge in years to come! 👩🏽💻🧠💡
So - who's out there that I don't know yet?
Tag them in / send
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Professor today: “IQ is way down”
Professor in 1970s*: “IQ is way down”
Numerate / empirical evidence: “IQ is way up”
—-
* my grandfather, Duke prof, complained students were worse each year - I think all teachers complain about this since forever, yet overall IQ is up
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I'm a bit grumpy because degrowth doesn't deserve equal time as a philosophy.
Also grumpy because of all the mis-truths represented as fact in the talk. "Only 1% of the world lives well" / "capitalism is bad" / "we have too many humans" / "you should read Karl Marx" and on and
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@pritika_mehta
Reminiscent of the "industrialist telling fisherman to build a fishing business" story that is so popular.
But that story misses what matters.
The goal is about doing something bigger than ourselves driving societal value - not stacking chips to live large.
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@Austen
Not sure which side you’re arguing for but I am 100% team simpler more effective words.
People using fancy words are not communicating better in most cases.
Aim for high SNR, people!
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@netcapgirl
Having worked with a handful of amazing folks from Turkey, I think they just make them different (better) over there.
Iconic pic!
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@haxrob
Speed is a feature. I sooo appreciate everyone who is working to get latency down and cares about this. And I love that it found a back door.
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@peterrhague
So the scary thing here is the OP is an avowed communist and got a crap ton of likes for their post. And has a ton of followers.
How can there be so many folks on board with this failed ideology? Socialists I can a little bit understand - most of them want EU style socialism
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@ireann15
@victormustar
This was my fave scene - the “dance off” segment of every Jedi/sith battle
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Plus there are the 2nd order effects of teaching a generation of humans that stupid ineffective regulations are an ok thing and should be quietly accepted. That is a massive negative cost.
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How much has this cost us in lost time and attention as a society? The milliseconds must add up to weeks of lost productivity across millions of people.
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@DanielleFong
At Google Research we told folks "we don't care if you publish, we care if you ship, if your work is used by billions"
We were trying to avoid folks who put publishing on a pedestal / chase it at all costs. It has a place and matters.
But impact matters more. Much publication
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Got my hands on the degrowth deck. It is CRINGE. And also wrong. Blugh.
Got my hands on a BANGER e/acc deck. Would love a few more. Can't wait for the talk.
Inspirational == builders and fixers.
Grump-inspiring == degrowthers.
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I was raised with this attitude: use less, turn the heat down, use cold water.
I reject this. No human wants this, really.
And we can deliver hot water, cold water, hot air, cold air, wherever and whenever it is wanted.
We can desalinate water and make more. We can fix the
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@alz_zyd_
Yes. We all live better than kings of old - even the poorest amongst us.
We are more equal than ever in the ways we experience life.
A billionaire can’t eat more calories than we do.
We all have the same internet and info access. The same opportunities.
Life is amazing! 📈
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Ok I 💯 endorse this concept. Think
@yacineMTB
would approve.
For the EE / computer engineers they have to program an fpga on it to accelerate ML training runs too.
There should be a university cs program where all freshmen are given a cheap laptop with no OS on it, have to install Linux on it themselves, then do all of their programming work on that with no web browser for the first two semesters
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PS - got full context, on the plus side was presented as something to debate / kids got into it, and not as something to take on the face of it.
Getting on the schedule to give the e/acc version :D
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@byersblake
He also called mobile and shifted the entire company to play that game, in the face of fierce resistance. He had bought and invested in Android years before iPhone so was ready to fast follow and scale.
I’m biased - former Googler - Android guy and Google AI guy - but lived
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@saranormous
The most pro freedom anti-socialism anti-communist folks in my HBS class* were from former USSR client states or other fun places like Venezuela / Argentina.
You don’t live through this (or have your parents experience it) without worrying seriously about the slippery slope and
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@Andercot
I have never liked papers or patents as the measure. Certainly without a meaningful quality filter.
But more importantly most of our wins have been outside the world of papers. In the world of markets and entrepreneurial endeavors.
Publish by shipping and building great
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@Noahpinion
@JDVance1
If we reindustrialize with high automation then strong dollar less of an issue.
If we can drive price of energy towards zero with tech progress, same.
I want it all - strong dollar, strong exports, strong employment.
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@tferriss
My grandfather was a Nobel prize winner. Spent many more than 2-5 mins with him.
Mostly took away: no magic other than smarts + hard work. Also in it for purpose, not money.
Newbies should have asked him: how did you pick this path, and how did you keep going?
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@businessbarista
My father basically did this for decades as he built his business, and the takeaway for me was "never accept that trade". Build a business that can afford its team - you're hiding from the true costs of the business if you avoid this.
The impact on the family of not having
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@misha_saul
Having built FDA regulated medical software this is why I think it’s harder than folks think to get LLMs there. It will happen but safety is P0.
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@BoyanSlat
@OurWorldInData
Read Factfullness, Numbers Don’t Lie, Progress Paradox - covers much of this well.
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Great data from
@endeavor_global
on what unicorn founders look like empirically. Not what you’d expect from your basic Zuck / Gates pattern matching. Tracks with my expectations as a state school person scrapping to get stuff done that matters.
Thanks to
@mundiventures
via
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I am so here for this. Bottom row all day. 😅
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I hate video content. Just want to read. Subtitles make video slightly less terrible.
Anyone else with me in the cranky old person just wants to read things fast department?
Don’t want your fancy tok toks just want to baseline ideas into my brain as fast as possible. Video
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This demo seems qualitatively different than every other video I’ve seen to date.
If truly 1x speed / no teleop / all AI … then I’m properly impressed.
My guess is still quite brittle at generic tasks with a a lot of work to make these demos seem fluid. But still…
So then -
Am I being pragmatic, being another typical stupid human, or what?
I know we screw up exponential understanding - so should hold more mental space for these.
And yet still decades since self driving any minute now … have this spidey sense we’ll follow this path with LLMs and
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Banger to end the year on. Capitalism - still the best way to allocate resources and grow the pie.
I think another critique OP misses is the concept of pie expanding invention. Can’t imagine how a central planner could ever figure out what new ideas to test and build.
Hard
TLDR AI can't plan communism either, as 8 billion humans with constantly shifting preferences are inherently unpredictable.
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This is exactly what so many get wrong.
Wealth is not finite. It is nearly infinite - the pie expands. The universe is large.
We’ve barely scratched the surface of the resources on this planet - and most wealth is not resource based, but is idea based.
We create wealth
@Rothmus
@beinlibertarian
If money is finite...which is the only way it has value...someone amassing billions has to take it from others in the system.
PS - income disparity, the top 1% hoarding the wealth was one of the top causes of the depression. It isn't sustainable.
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@annaarthoe
I just use the regular dash - can’t be bothered to dig up the emdash version - and I think it’s great.
But then I own my midwittery.
My goal is always max parsing speed for a sentence. Commas aren’t great. Visual spacing helps.
Periods, dashes, or go home. (Unless you
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@levelsio
They need an Elon / X style reboot there, where they stop worrying about public opinion and acting conservatively. Burn the bridges and the boats, win or die trying.
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@girdley
And the dad jokes, like this post itself. Full meta.
Fatherhood is a blink of an eye, and everything. My babies were just born. Now they tower over me and are young men.
The fewer days left of time together in one household, the less I worry about lights and details
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@JenLouiseWilson
Don’t read bad books.
Don’t let others define good or bad books for you.
The zeitgeist is often wrong about whether a book is good.
If a book is bad, you should stop reading it
Critics and the masses are frequently wrong about what is good - their memetic filters are broken
Read what you like. Stop reading if it’s crap. Life is too short and there are an infinity of books to read 📚
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Today is a fun day for
@kevinryan
and our
@alley_corp
team! Kevin announced our new $250M fund, bringing external investors in for the first time.
Timing is everything, and I am lucky and humbled to have joined at the right moment to go on this journey with them.
Exclusive: AlleyCorp raises a $250 million fund, taking on external investors for the first time
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I don’t care if other kids catch up, or if my kids are ahead.
I care deeply whether my kids are challenged each day.
I care deeply that they aren’t taught “education is dumb and boring” - which is the takeaway most capable kids get from today’s system.
And I care deeply that
"Kids who were ahead slow down and everyone else catches up" is a common argument against supporting accelerated education.
But those kids slow down BECAUSE we don't support accelerated education.
If you have a kid capable of learning algebra in 4th grade, but San Francisco
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@JayNDonde
I’m in the older camp here and remember the 90s, and have many friends who were in IDF as well. As an outsider have never known what the right answers are but appreciate it isn’t clear and easy.
I like your analysis and focus on not giving in to terrorist goals of an ugly full
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My robotics buddy Anand Lalwani tipped me off to an article in Fortune his co-founder Adi wrote titled "Why do so many robotics companies fail?"
Awesome article - loved this in particular - basically Build Stuff People Want:
"Other key success factors include focusing on
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@Austen
The Law of Infinite Opportunities states that we have so much more to do, make, create. Even if these tools literally 10x us, which I doubt, there is still 1000x more to do.
I was told not to learn to code and be an eng for these reasons. Also because my job would be
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@JKSteinberger
@design_robot
Jumping in here to say that a human cognitive failure is to see things as worse than they are. This feels like more of the same. Books like Progress Paradox, Factfulness, Numbers Don’t Lie and so on show all of this hand wringing to be knocked down by numeracy.
We need more
Optimism solves problems while cynicism complains. 🌞 >>> ⛈️
I've noticed a vibe split here - some folks focused on what they can do, what they can make better, what needs to be done, and how best to do it. Call them optimists. The e/acc group def counts here, but they're just
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@levelsio
I love you so much for this was always embarrassed by my code but could make stuff work fast and never cared what language framework etc like yeah I can make whatever you need go. Fun to learn it more fun to make a thing work fast and get users on it.
Thank you for bravely
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@yacineMTB
I mean, yeah?
The good news is 90% plus is about fitness. Have visible abs in todays day and age and you are top 1% attractive full stop.
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@Dan_Jeffries1
This is 💯 my interpretation. But then I never thought these AI alignment people made any sense in the first place. It was always performative silliness.
Just build great tools, ship them usefully, control them via existing governance and legal system. Gonna be just fine.
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@blader
My uncle directed ocean science funding under Obama. He is def competent. Many around him were.
Hearing how they had to interact with fundamentalist politicians was mind blowing
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@Andercot
Yes and also half my electricity bill is not for kWh but is for transport costs etc. So even free kWh (which nuclear is closest too) needs more innovation beyond that to move to free energy future I want.
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@paulg
Convergent evolution, they all independently identified that as the ideal response through a thoughtful first principles exploration of the possible reactions.
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@netcapgirl
Sorry imma let you finish but … right answer not pictured! 📺
I’ll take the bait. The best isn’t pictured - it’s option ten - a 40” high res tv/monitor. Ideally with a cat somewhere in there.
Need vertical pixels for big thinking. No one is happy with a tiny whiteboard why would you want a tiny screen?
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@sweatystartup
Same - my partner supported us through business school and through startup times. All the feels and all the appreciation - huge unlock for taking risk.
She also saved like crazy into a nice 401k throughout her tech career - so even though she 'retired' after my MBA, she's still
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@netcapgirl
Google did this on purpose knowing this might happen. They want ideas to be free, and believe they should win by being best (not by IP) or don’t deserve to win.
This is a thing I love about Google. Really was a real ethos while there. And had they not done this progress would
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I'm soooo frustrated with our public school system. Sitting here in a wealthy town, "top tier" public school, and they will not accommodate my children's math needs.
Middle child is a freshman by age, taking AP Calc B/C right now, and the public school's position is "your kid
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@exitperfect
Amazing PMs are amazing. Terrible PMs are terrible. Mediocre PMs are terrible too.
If you haven’t worked with an amazing PM go get one - have a high bar!
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Replying to myself - amazing to see so many folks jumping in here! Love it :D. First viral post - thanks everyone - you're awesome. 🦄
I'd love to be wrong - and certainly leave room for being wrong. Strong opinions weakly held and all that. Just calling it as I see it - so
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@zebulgar
And if you're really doing it right, actually the majority of the returns will happen in years 20-40.
This was a great example from the OG Thiel himself in Zero to One - where all of Paypal's value was in the NPV exit value in year 10, and then was still true when rerunning the
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@sweatystartup
I grew up in a sweaty family business, ran fishing boats and factories, drove forklifts, trucks.
Now VC investing in robotics companies doing hard stuff. Founders in this space often have similar real world experience, know what it *means* to work in that messy real world.
So
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@IterIntellectus
Is anyone taking this while building and maintaining muscle mass? My biggest concern is the muscle loss associated with taking it 💪🏋��
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@waitbutwhy
Yep we did same yanked kids from school drive north. I don’t think any photo captures the experience.
Love your write up- far better than mine- now I don’t need to write more :)
Follow up thoughts day after:
1. I haven’t found a video or picture that does the experience justice.
I didn’t know this was on my bucket list but retrospectively it was. The experience of full totality was magical
2. We sat in 6 hours of traffic (we were the traffic!) and
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Someone asked me how to move from SW to HW / robotics as a kickass builder excited to jump in. Love it 🤖🦾
My response: robotics needs more great SW leaders who treat HW like a commodity, figure out a huge market need / GTM path, then pull in a team to unlock that. With a SW
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I am, checks notes, a deep tech investor. And I am, checks notes, thinking hard about the coming shift of human capital.
If you’re thinking about this - hit us up. Restoring, nearshoring, automation everywhere.
We will always be rate limited by humans who can make the
If I were some sort of self-styled "deep tech" investor, I'd be thinking less about actual tech and more on massive shifts in human capital that have to occur in next 10y. Who's building the Udacity for controls engineering, industrial automation, working w/ AI solutions, etc?
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Follow up thoughts day after:
1. I haven’t found a video or picture that does the experience justice.
I didn’t know this was on my bucket list but retrospectively it was. The experience of full totality was magical
2. We sat in 6 hours of traffic (we were the traffic!) and
Total nerd family - ran up to VT for spring snowboarding 🏂 and eclipse viewing 🌘
I was in a board meeting through the totality, but since our entire board is a bunch of nerds too :D, we all took time to appreciate the moment. Thanks
@RenovateRobot
!
I think a board meeting
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@pmarca
We should regulate doomerism with federal czar and everything, can’t get the job done for less than a few billion a year
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@levelsio
Also see: rent seekers are not great for an economy; pie expanders make the world move forward.
We should be working to reduce rents and make assets cheaper so we can create more value on top of them.
We need more inventors and builders, less folks turning capital into rent
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@antoniogm
The US says thank you, we’ve been screwing up lots of obvious stuff over here and could use every leg up we get, especially if it supports and maintains our historic strength in innovation
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Anyhow, in the spirit of “don’t complain”, and trying to avoid being a hypocrite - posting my solution here of countering the EUs stupid regulations with smarter US immune reactions :)
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@kasratweets
My take: just do stuff and make things better anyways!
@netcapgirl
Just build stuff anyways since smart is overrated (above a competency threshold) and banging your head against the world until stuff works is underrated and makes all the difference
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@Scobleizer
The conversation here is at least 5x better than LinkedIn, and Threads isn’t even competing in the same league. All the builders and founders are here, investors, thinkers. The access is killer.
Never understood people counting X out since Elon bought it… was not something
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@sarthakgh
It's almost like we should trust that price is a market discovery mechanism! And if we feel price is hiding externalities, we should appropriate capture that via taxes / other societally imposed costs, so the price signal works.
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If a book is bad, you should stop reading it
Critics and the masses are frequently wrong about what is good - their memetic filters are broken
Read what you like. Stop reading if it’s crap. Life is too short and there are an infinity of books to read 📚
Reading a much lauded book that is so terrible, I feel disconnected from my life and everyone in it. How is it possible that I am surrounded by people who can enjoy something so false, hollow and self-involved? I want to fake my own death and leave New York, it's so bad.
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@tracewoodgrains
@charlesmurray
This is banal and people are afraid to say it so it’s worth saying.
My tweak: there is a threshold above which it doesn’t matter anymore.
You said it well with “curious and like talking in abstractions” - ie interesting and useful conversation and thinking partner.
Another
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I’ll take the bait. The best isn’t pictured - it’s option ten - a 40” high res tv/monitor. Ideally with a cat somewhere in there.
Need vertical pixels for big thinking. No one is happy with a tiny whiteboard why would you want a tiny screen?
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@jspujji
1. My college electrical eng program banned calculators for first year - calc, physics, chem, etc - made us all mental math beasts. Hated it now love it.
2. My kids did a variant - Russian math, now Art of Problem Solving. & Beast Academy - also killer outcomes, love it.
Don’t
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@Punutoso
THIS! This, this, this. Don't even need to blame it on safety folks - they'll nerf it for "big slow company" reasons and "let's do it 5 different ways and unlaunch each after a quarter" and "let's have 3 competing teams each do it differently" reasons 😭
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