If our friends over at @truflation are on to something, Bond yields have certainly peaked here! Huge signal..

Politics aside, if the rolling net fiscal flows continue to dry up (i.e. deficit continues to narrow), it could contribute to a negative liquidity shock to markets as we roll into the teeth of tax season...

$ETH – Is This the Deviation Before the Breakout? Let’s Dive In! As I highlighted in a previous thread, $OTHERS.D recently deviated below a 9-year+ support level, a signal that could precede this altseason, as it leads to everyone capitulating. (Read here: At the same time, $ETH has also formed a significant deviation, leaving behind a massive wick to the downside. Now, the focus is on whether we’ll see a Wick Fill or if this was the final capitulation before the breakout. Let’s break it down! 👇🔥 The concept behind wick fills is that wicks represent market imbalances, leaving behind unfilled orders and untapped liquidity. Typically, the price tends to revisit these areas to take that liquidity before reversing. However, given how popular this idea is, my contrarian perspective suggests a different outcome. If the wick were to fully fill, I wouldn’t see it as a bullish signal. Instead, I believe it would invalidate the idea that this was merely a deviation below support and would instead suggest a confirmed breakdown. This is why I don't agree with this view, now let's see the confluences that confirm my thesis! As shown in the chart above, over $3 billion in short liquidations are stacked just above $2.9K, clearly, the idea of a wick fill is very "popular". But wait, there's more! On February 3rd, during the massive crash, we witnessed the highest spot volume in ETH’s history. Notably, when ETH tested the $2.1K level, it bounced over 20% within minutes, an indication of significant buying pressure at that level. This suggests that someone intentionally drove the price lower, made massive buys, and flipped market sentiment bearish, leading to everyone shorting in the process. Now, you might be wondering, why? Why would someone make everyone think we won't have an altseason this cycle, while accumulating in the same time? Makes no sense, right? 🤔

Spot on. Have had two mammoth alt seasons in the last year. There will be more. Just short-lived. Identifying inflection points of bipolar alts is much more challenging than doing so for bitcoin. There's a major edge to be had there. Funding + time + trigger.

So to put some simple TA arnd this $ETH nuking: See top chart $ETH: The Aug 5 nuking formed a range at the 38.2% retrace of the nuking and lasted until the downtrend was broken. If this logic is applied to the current nuking - ie a range forming at 38.2% retrace of the nuking and then breaking out once the downtrend is broken... this could place the breakout arnd end of March. I have overlaid parts of the Aug to Oct 2025 fractal to help visualize what may happen. The middle chart is BTC with all events marked out. If you look at $ETH Q1 2021 on bottom chart the $ETH breakout didn't occur until 31 March 2021, so while this cycles ETH is def weaker - its possible something similar plays out. Could well be a scary drop - poss pump into CPI then drop? Then range? However provided this range/base and the wick hold we could just well be ok and we just have to wait it out.

So to put some simple TA arnd this $ETH nuking: See top chart $ETH: The Aug 5 nuking formed a range at the 38.2% retrace of the nuking and lasted until the downtrend was broken. If this logic is applied to the current nuking - ie a range forming at 38.2% retrace of the nuking and then breaking out once the downtrend is broken... this could place the breakout arnd end of March. I have overlaid parts of the Aug to Oct 2025 fractal to help visualize what may happen. The middle chart is BTC with all events marked out. If you look at $ETH Q1 2021 on bottom chart the $ETH breakout didn't occur until 31 March 2021, so while this cycles ETH is def weaker - its possible something similar plays out. Could well be a scary drop - poss pump into CPI then drop? Then range? However provided this range/base and the wick hold we could just well be ok and we just have to wait it out.

So to put some simple TA arnd this $ETH nuking: See top chart $ETH: The Aug 5 nuking formed a range at the 38.2% retrace of the nuking and lasted until the downtrend was broken. If this logic is applied to the current nuking - ie a range forming at 38.2% retrace of the nuking and then breaking out once the downtrend is broken... this could place the breakout arnd end of March. I have overlaid parts of the Aug to Oct 2025 fractal to help visualize what may happen. The middle chart is BTC with all events marked out. If you look at $ETH Q1 2021 on bottom chart the $ETH breakout didn't occur until 31 March 2021, so while this cycles ETH is def weaker - its possible something similar plays out. Could well be a scary drop - poss pump into CPI then drop? Then range? However provided this range/base and the wick hold we could just well be ok and we just have to wait it out.

So to put some simple TA arnd this $ETH nuking: See top chart $ETH: The Aug 5 nuking formed a range at the 38.2% retrace of the nuking and lasted until the downtrend was broken. If this logic is applied to the current nuking - ie a range forming at 38.2% retrace of the nuking and then breaking out once the downtrend is broken... this could place the breakout arnd end of March. I have overlaid parts of the Aug to Oct 2025 fractal to help visualize what may happen. The middle chart is BTC with all events marked out. If you look at $ETH Q1 2021 on bottom chart the $ETH breakout didn't occur until 31 March 2021, so while this cycles ETH is def weaker - its possible something similar plays out. Could well be a scary drop - poss pump into CPI then drop? Then range? However provided this range/base and the wick hold we could just well be ok and we just have to wait it out.

So to put some simple TA arnd this $ETH nuking: See top chart $ETH: The Aug 5 nuking formed a range at the 38.2% retrace of the nuking and lasted until the downtrend was broken. If this logic is applied to the current nuking - ie a range forming at 38.2% retrace of the nuking and then breaking out once the downtrend is broken... this could place the breakout arnd end of March. I have overlaid parts of the Aug to Oct 2025 fractal to help visualize what may happen. The middle chart is BTC with all events marked out. If you look at $ETH Q1 2021 on bottom chart the $ETH breakout didn't occur until 31 March 2021, so while this cycles ETH is def weaker - its possible something similar plays out. Could well be a scary drop - poss pump into CPI then drop? Then range? However provided this range/base and the wick hold we could just well be ok and we just have to wait it out.

So to put some simple TA arnd this $ETH nuking: See top chart $ETH: The Aug 5 nuking formed a range at the 38.2% retrace of the nuking and lasted until the downtrend was broken. If this logic is applied to the current nuking - ie a range forming at 38.2% retrace of the nuking and then breaking out once the downtrend is broken... this could place the breakout arnd end of March. I have overlaid parts of the Aug to Oct 2025 fractal to help visualize what may happen. The middle chart is BTC with all events marked out. If you look at $ETH Q1 2021 on bottom chart the $ETH breakout didn't occur until 31 March 2021, so while this cycles ETH is def weaker - its possible something similar plays out. Could well be a scary drop - poss pump into CPI then drop? Then range? However provided this range/base and the wick hold we could just well be ok and we just have to wait it out.