Trevor Phillips
@TPLevine85
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Flies and writes occasionally. All things close air support. Proponent of smart automation. @nuclearpolicy & Space Policy Fellow ‘23. Senior Editor @CIMSEC
Joined September 2020
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Pinned Tweet
What does the introduction of the machine gun and the drone to the modern battlefield have in common?
@WDMills1992
and I discuss in our latest piece.
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The end of an era. The last flight of the west coast’s C-2 Greyhound was yesterday.
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It did not really hit me until today as I picked up my logbook, jacket, and flight gear. Friday likely was the last time I will touch the controls of the F/A-18. She took good care of me on multiple deployments and was a dream come true to fly for 17 years.
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They probably looked at the wrong service record…board results are out.
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Congratulations
@WDMills1992
on becoming the USMC’s newest UAS officer! Also, a good excuse to get most of the writing group together.
@JooseBoludo
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@CcibChris
Unsurprising if you know the Argentines. My brother was an exchange pilot there and they liked to fly through wind turbine farms for fun. I’ll hand it to them though, their pilots really love to fly.
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Big thanks to
@warontherocks
for publishing our article regarding resistance within the Navy to fielding carrier-borne autonomous systems.
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@BobLovesData
We do. You get one every time you leave a command. But my next command before retirement is non-flying.
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Should the Navy keep its FAC(A) program in the current resource constrained environment? If so, is it’s value proposition highest with the fast jet community? Thanks to
@WarOnTheRocks
for publishing.
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Making night sausage over Houston. Pass/complete. Tomorrow will be their cross country solo.
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@CowboyShepherd2
I am just waiting for my next shock - seeing it only museums and by pure dumb luck, recognize the buno number of the bird on display.
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Coffee ✔️ Student ✔️clear skies ✔️ Time to make some sausage
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One of the operators in my shop gave me this. Not sure what he’s trying to tell me...
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@WDMills1992
and my latest with
@WarOnTheRocks
. Is the US Navy overtraining its pilots in the age of automation?
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@johnkonrad
@TrentTelenko
Instead, especially based on the report that a nearby Iranian spy ship helped queue in the Red Sea, it is more likely the drone was launched and controlled from a ship within LOS of the drone. It is just easier from a technical and logistical standpoint.
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1/ History may not repeat itself, but it rhymes. A 🧵.
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@GodLovesUgly22
@KofmanMichael
There’s a few reasons why jets would be flying low. 1) Avoidance of more capable and longer range SAMs 2) Performing visual attacks below an overcast 3) De-confliction from their own AD or a combination of all three. (1/2)
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@WDMills1992
some data for you know what.
1/ Quick thread on reflections from Russian Telegrams on the impact of FPV drones on unit movement: "The infantry movements occur in small groups, and not even 5-15 people, but in twos or threes. Both we and the Ukrainians are watching each other’s every move. Therefore,
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@mercoglianos
@johnkonrad
Question. Why is CTF150 not being used for this role, a TF in existence since 2004, currently commanded by the French? Its mission: “ensure that legitimate commercial shipping can transit the region, free from non-state threats.”
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The next step is a mesh network, where each drone acts as a relay with others within the network. Mesh networks are the backbone for concepts of seal-healing networks and combat edge computing. In terms of autonomous systems, meshes allow a collective sensing and reactions.
Very useful explanation of FPV signal repeaters used in growing numbers in Ukraine.
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@johnkonrad
@TrentTelenko
Launching drones from merchants has precedence. Drone swarms that harassed US warships off of California were traced to a nearby HK cargo ship. To hit a moving target from shore over the radar horizon is no small feat. It requires infrastructure.
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@david_alman
@MAGTravF
Aren’t some of these ships makeshift arms transports? The one that just blew up in spectacular fashion is speculated to have been carrying artillery or explosives for drones.
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Thank you
@WarOnTheRocks
for publishing our latest article. War is a voracious consumer of precision munitions. The use of risk-worthy drones may negate some requirements to use them to achieve precision effects.
@WDMills1992
@JooseBoludo
@CReevesFox
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No. 8 struck a chord with me. Americans have a history of discounting foreign tech as inferior. We did it with the AK-47, the rivets found on the MiG-25, and now with foreign drone tech. The reality is, thoughtful engineers made do with what they have.
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New CIMSEC
#podcast
just dropped! Colonel Noah Spataro, Lieutenant Commander Andrew Tenbusch, and I discuss our article “Winged Luddites” and the integration of unmanned aerial systems into naval air wings. Hosted by Marine Captain Walker Mills.
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@thinkdefence
TBH, its because the majority are still locked into the past 20 years of warfare. The bureaucracy is slowly coming around, with schools devoted to CUAS popping up in the USMC and Army. Netting may prevent the drone from delivering a shape charge, not so for a burst with fuse mod.
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@WDMills1992
, seeing a recurring theme observed with the Israeli attacks on Syrian forces using Russian SA-22 (Pantsir) systems back in 2019.
⚡️At night, a large-scale fire strike was carried out at the Saki military airfield in the temporarily occupied Crimea
According to Censor NET sources in the Security Service, there were at least 12 combat aircraft (Su-24 and Su-30) at the airport, as well as the Pantsir air
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@WDMills1992
makes you wonder if they’re using their “cheaper” and less-sophisticated weapons or depleting their slow-to-procure missiles we’ll need against a peer. One $20,000 drone =/ $2.1M SM-2 that has a 30-mo lead time for production. Beware magazine depth.
BREAKING: The USS Mason has shot down a drone in the Red Sea, U.S. military official tells me.
Comes days after the USS Carney shot down three drones there during an hourslong firefight during which Houthi rebels launched missiles and drones at commercial ships.
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Drone integration for close air support. At JCAS, we try to keep training as realistic and forward-leaning. Students are exposed to the utility of ‘spotter drones’ to make corrections and assess BDA on distant targets. We plan to grow our fleet and add capabilities.
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I was digging through some of my old kits and found a recce guide that had been made and issued to the JTACs. At the time, we just threw it into the bottom of our bag and didn’t think twice about it...
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@Osinttechnical
@AncientSubHunt
Usually, it’s the inertial reel that fails to retract properly (hitting the basket fast or improperly can also), causing a sine wave that snaps off the basket. If you’re not quick on the disconnect, boom.
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@johnkonrad
@WDMills1992
@CTReese2
@bill_hamblet
@tc_quinn07
@USNIProceedings
@DOTMARAD
A start would be more shipyard capacity. Next would be an aggressive merchant marine industry recruiting strategy.
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It is scary how closely the opening act of this wargame aligns with today’s reality. If you know how this wargame ended, you know that’s not a good thing.
Iran launches its first direct drone attack against targets within Israel, a scenario an NPEC Israeli-Iranian nuclear war game predicted and detailed months ago and reported on here
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@br4s1d4s
The Air Force might have ended the light attack experiment, but SOCOM still got the OA-1K for armed overwatch.
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(1/2) People are asking what lessons can we draw from the ongoing Ukraine conflict. One that stands out to me is the continued proving that relatively low-cost UAVs are having tremendous effects against regular forces.
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@johnkonrad
@david_alman
@BA_Friedman
@SebastianBae
@WDMills1992
@mercoglianos
@WWATMD
@Heather_at_ACTS
@cdrsalamander
@FarvaPrice
@JABell27
@CreggeKyle
@jwsc03
@McCainJack
@BDHerzinger
@a2NavArc
@DOTMARAD
I’m not sure discouraging people to write is the correct solution either. Open discourse is how problems are solved. If we’re singling out DOT & MARAD, throw our whole government in there. They’re all subordinate to someone as political appointees.
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Big thanks to
@aupress
for publishing my article, "Redistributing Airpower for the Spectrum of Warfare." As the peer competition heats up, some worry that air power retooling will leave a capability gap in the low-end/COIN. Is there a solution?
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@JackMurphyRGR
First step for them would be to not have a fire marking their position for us air cowboys.
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@JayMcvann
There was a story floating around in aviation-mil circles of a Marine that absconded with unclassified ops manuals like CV NATOPS to sell to the Chinese. Wonder if this was the guy. If not, we unfortunately have more than one bad apple.
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@ElbridgeColby
@USNIProceedings
@CReevesFox
@CreggeKyle
Mr. Colby, appreciate the clarification and the shoutout.
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@JerryHendrixII
From AP News: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was asked to evacuate Kyiv at the behest of the U.S. government but turned down the offer.
Zelenskyy said in response: “The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride.”
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The Japanese just did their cost benefit calculations about OWA Drones/Propeller cruise missiles
Japan decided use a uncrewed 155mm anti-aircraft gun, because missiles are too expensive for dealing with OWA Drones/Propeller cruise missile threat.
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Big thanks to
@NavalInstitute
for publishing our article! Check it out when you can. Written with
@WDMills1992
,
@JooseBoludo
, and
@CReevesFox
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@WDMills1992
@br4s1d4s
Having just come from there, I think they’re ready for anything on their border.
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@johnkonrad
@mercoglianos
@FreightAlley
Aircraft carriers are useless after about two weeks without those oilers coming to keep those hungry air wings fed.
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@johnkonrad
U.S. dominance is not assured and the underdog has the attacker’s advantage. If you want to maintain your advantage, you have to continue to innovate and create new products customers want. Repackaging and iterating on old designs only gets you so far.
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The Range Problem: “We’re short on fuel, but we’ve come this far; I’m not turning back now.” Our new article discusses how the MQ-25 and other autonomous aerial refueling platforms change the game for a CVW.
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@mercoglianos
@johnkonrad
my main question is if we can modify VISA to help subsidize the building of a new merchant ship. For example, gov pays 15-20% of build cost and automatically enrolls ship in MSP.
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@BrianKerg
Despite coming out with DoD ID numbers and scrubbing official records of socials, the first thing they ask when you check-in for a dental appointment is “may I have your social?”
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Regarding the increasing capabilities of the missile age and concentration of fleet firepower in supercarriers, “we should not plan on the perfect defense for such a priceless ship.” ME proxies show that modern defenses still do not guarantee protection.
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Exactly. Regional hotspots are always going to pop up at inopportune times. But this was the reason John McCain advocated for a high-low mix of weapons. You don’t burn your best capabilities against threats that don’t require it.
So when we burn a 100 or 200 rounds on the Houthis, especially in this budget environment, we are harming our ability to fight in the first days of a Taiwan conflict.
For extra context, a single DDG can carry 90ish rounds. (Note: mission changes loadout here).
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@BDHerzinger
@FlyinGidget
I’m suprised no one caught that the M4 has a blue barrel on it for simunition training.
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@WDMills1992
@AndrewBGreene
@rwpallas
And I saw a report in which the PRC is trying desperately to attract talent to its military. One statistic is that academic tests for military entrants maintained scores around 10% lower than the top universities in China.
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Thank you to
@WarInstitute
for publishing our article regarding the future of organic, lethal air support for ground combat forces. Co-authored with
@WDMills1992
and
@JooseBoludo
. Let us know what you think.
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@WDMills1992
@JooseBoludo
@CReevesFox
@BrianDefNerd
@david_alman
Suddenly all the float plane instructors in Alaska are in high demand. Sign me up!
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@DaniellaCheslow
While cost plays a huge part, I was reminded by others that cost of the counter isn't the sole deciding factor. The ability to sustain (even if it's cheap), and the value of the protected entity all factor into the true value of the defensive system.
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@SebastianBae
@MikeBlack114
@david_alman
My understanding is that the PLAAF envisions their backseater role to help control AI agents. We need to figure out how to do more with less. China has a lot more people to throw at their problems. Plus, you give up something which equates to range, payload, or both.
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@MAGTravF
@WDMills1992
By war's end the UK was producing millions from the 1915 numbers. The Germans were producing Maxim derivatives well ahead of the war, and Russians had bought large numbers. The UK had Maxims in service with the colonies, but felt the gun was not for 'civilized warfare.'
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@TrentTelenko
@brentdsadler
@NextNavy
@JerryHendrixII
@stavridisj
@Lazarus_Navy
@HunterStires
@GordianKnotRay
@cgberube
@WWATMD
@naval_gazing
@salisbot
@SebastianBae
@CTReese2
@MAGTravF
@ElbridgeColby
@JoshuaSteinman
@MaritimeAmerica
@BDHerzinger
@mercoglianos
@maphumanintent
Obsolescence and ill-equipped are not equal. DEW is cited as the future of close in weapon systems; HPM in particular for drone swarms. These haven’t been added to our tier one combatants yet - does that also make them obsolete? Ships are platforms. Platforms carry systems.
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We should ask ourselves, if such low-tech taxes our interceptors, and creates such headaches, why are we not fielding similar systems against countries that a possess smaller industrial bases with limited air defense? Its a double-edge sword, yet we won’t wield it the other way.
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@david_alman
It should bear the lesson that operating within a WEZ, in a predictable manner, and under constant surveillance is asking to get shot.
Rules for not getting shot:
1) Don’t be seen.
2) If seen, defend.
3) If defending, be unpredictable.
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@mercoglianos
@Honer_CUT
Still have that patch from when all the 2007 USMMA Navy flight students wore them. Also, Disney helped illustrate our training film about celestial navigation.
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1/ I agree with CAPT
@FarvaPrice
assessment. Well written article, but not possible with the Navy’s current trainer. But ENS Bell’s underlying arguments regarding the utility of flying certain phases for young pilots is spot on.
I appreciate ENS Bell’s effort, but unfortunately the T-45 does not have the digital flight controls that are required to integrate PLM into the jet.
Rather, there is no need to send student naval aviators to the boat for CQ anymore.
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@VonHitchofen
@AncientSubHunt
@JPPFRUS
@FirstFalklands
True. A lot of Argentinas more advanced air to air fighters remained behind for home defense after the Black Buck raid. Argentina was nervous about a similar raid on the mainland.
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@mrfolse1
100%. Sometimes you get to align your personal desires with the needs, but never doubt for a second that you’re being accommodated. It’s just that your
desires meet the needs.
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@AncientSubHunt
@IACTwo
I’ve seen a lot of literature covering Vietnam referring to both Navy and Air Force FAC(A)s simply as FACs. Before Vietnam, the Air Force called them TACs, not to be confused with the modern day TAC(A). Most FAC(A) missions were actually SCAR, but CAS controls did occur.
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@TrentTelenko
@johnkonrad
@TrentTelenko
not sure how we all missed the insurance rate spikes. Some of us were involved in discussions about the implications of insurance premiums and uninsurable commerce. Before the Red Sea, the most recent example was commercial shipping to Ukraine in the Black Sea.
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I recently returned from a trip to Europe, where I spent four days in Poland. Warsaw displayed some interesting artwork in their major city park.
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@MichaelJKanaan
@CogentRAS
@barronstone
That’s it? I’ll trade you my NMCI one for one of yours. They call it Flankspeed but I’m not sure what speed benchmark they’re using.
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@MAGTravF
@CTReese2
@WDMills1992
DIU Submission - Production-Ready, Inexpensive, Maritime Expeditionary (PRIME) Small Unmanned Surface Vehicle (sUSV) and Collaborative Intercept Capability
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@mercoglianos
and
@johnkonrad
, I noticed Egypt isn’t participating in the task force in the Red Sea. Considering they made around $9.4B from canal revenue, I would think that Houthis threatening one of their key revenue streams would have prompted action. Instead, they watch?
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@johnkonrad
You haven’t lived until watching your containers get stoved in, green water cover your bridge windows at 80 feet up, and thrown across the bridge because you suddenly heeled over 35 degrees.
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“AI can’t do the things a real pilot can, and if it eventually can, it won’t be anytime soon.” Don’t let the future hit you in the face there, buddy.
@WDMills1992
@JooseBoludo
@CReevesFox
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Check out our new article on
@WarOnTheRocks
, where we discuss the implication of Kasparov’s Law on military talent recruitment, training, and retention!
@WDMills1992
@JooseBoludo
@CogentRAS
@MichaelJKanaan
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@david_alman
Near term we are now in the realm of finding asymmetric counters. Long-term, don’t allow your critical industries (ship building) to offshore by creating and supporting a clear-eyed, long-term strategy. What we can probably do quickly though is make a crap ton of decoys.
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@AdrianP1978
@Aviation_Intel
False. The hangar bay is typically for more intensive maintenance like phase inspections. Hangar decks are crowded and unless they need more deck space, they’ll keep them on the “roof.” Bad weather may also force more downstairs.
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@GrayConnolly
@Navy_Hipple
@johnkonrad
@KurtBW_News
@JerryHendrixII
@SFByers13
@brentdsadler
@BDHerzinger
@cdrsalamander
@MaritimeAmerica
@mercoglianos
@tshugart3
@naval_gazing
@TrentTelenko
@McCainJack
@lawofsea
@david_alman
@DavidLarter
@BA_Friedman
@WDMills1992
@IMOHQ
I feel people were looking for scapegoats when the failures were a team effort. People blamed McNamara for trying to turn warfare into business analytics but in the end, ill defined strategy leads to ill consequences.
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@JeffVandenengel
@USNIProceedings
@bill_hamblet
Good points
@JeffVandenengel
. Nicely done. Also, congrats on command!
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Wow, time flies. Five years ago in Anbar, Iraq, calling in an AC-130. While short, my time attached to NSW was the most rewarding tour of my naval career and couldn’t recommend it higher to any aviator. Good people and lifelong friends.
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Check out the
#Midrats
podcast with
@cdrsalamander
and co-authors
@CogentRAS
and Andrew Tenbusch as we discuss the War on the Rocks article, carrier drones, autonomy, and culture.
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The first picture is a misfired cruise missile used in the attack against Al Asad AB. The other picture is of the Czech PBS TJ100 turbojet. Look familiar? Foreign designs smuggled or copied and put into weapon systems in the ME.
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