🚨 Publication update: Happy to share I have a book chapter, co-authored w
@Rudra_81
, on the Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW) in the recently published 'Institutional Roots of India's Security Policy' edited by
@MilanV
& published by
@OxUniPress
. (1/12)
🧵 on my interview with
@srinathraghava3
on his book 1971: A Global History of the Creation of Bangladesh for
@UChicago
's Committee on South Asian Studies [from April '22] - (1/10)
CIR students & staff are in Taiwan for an intensive
@UChicagoCIR
Asia Seminar!
🧵 on our visits + experience: Day 1 started with a super informative session on Taiwanese politics by
@lnachman32
@nccu1927
, followed by a visit to the American Institute in Taiwan
#CIRinTaiwan
Challenges around becoming the ‘+1’ in a China+1 strategy: Global mfg firms in 🇮🇳 rely on 🇨🇳 workers & technicians but visa rules have been tightened since COVID & the Galwan clash. via
@ft
1/5
This conv. between Srinath Raghavan &
@amitvarma
- released after the Pulwama attack in 2019 - remains one of the most thoughtful and nuanced ones on the history of the India-Pak conflict.
The hidden dynamics of the India-Pakistan conflict are so crazy complicated, aren't they? The game theory, the geopolitics, the yada yada yada.
Not any more.
Listen to
@srinathraghava3
give me a masterclass in ep 111 of The Seen and the Unseen:
I reviewed 2 books (authored by
@clary_co
& Satinder Lambah respectively) on
#India
#Pakistan
for
@lawfare
. The books shed light on peace and conflict between 🇮🇳 & 🇵🇰, and as I argue in the piece, hold insights for the future of bilateral ties:
Two decades ago India and Pakistan reached a cease-fire agreement.
@Shreyas_Shende1
reviews “The Difficult Politics of Peace,” by Christopher Clary and “In Pursuit of Peace,” by Satinder Lambah which look at how the CFA was achieved & what may happen next.
From
@washingtonpost
's Afghanistan Papers: then ISI head Ashfaq Kayani to Ryan Crocker on the Pakistan & Haqqani + Quetta Shura relationship (p. 35-36)
The Committee on Southern Asian Studies
@UChicago
recently hosted Amb.
@ShivshankaMenon
to discuss 🇮🇳's place in a world adrift. I had the privilege to moderate this conv. & we touched upon strategic autonomy, 🇮🇳-🇨🇳 ties & intelligence reforms:
@UChiDelhi
This thread shows the amount of work it takes great outlets like
@reporters_co
to hold the govt accountable.
Read
@tapasya_umm
's report in
@Article14live
on the govt's move to make aadhar mandatory for children to access nutritious meals -
In March
@UChicagoCIR
students had the opportunity to interact with journalists in Taiwan who prev reported from China. All of them highlighted how coverage on 🇨🇳was becoming distant and reporting on pol. elites became much more difficult after journalists were made to leave 1/2
Two years after the Taliban rose to power, what is India's Afghanistan strategy?
In my latest for
@SAVoices
, I argue that there is a lot more that India can do to tend to🇮🇳🇦🇫people-to-people ties.
1/ What might the return of the Labour Party mean for 🇮🇳🇬🇧 ties? I analyze this qn & more in the latest edition of Indialog (link in image & bio). The last time the Party was in power, things didn't go v well.
@MohanCRaja
provides a helpful historical context:
The Committee on Southern Asian Studies
@UChicago
is hosting Amb.
@ShivshankaMenon
for a conversation on the various security challenges to India on 19th Feb at 8:30 pm IST/9 am CST. Registration link:
@UChiDelhi
@UChicagoNews
This day marks 4 years since the Galwan border clash bw 🇮🇳 & 🇨🇳 that resulted in the death of 20 🇮🇳 soldiers. To better understand the state of bilateral ties, I spoke with Amb.
@VGokhale59
, the former Foreign Secretary of 🇮🇳, for my newsletter Indialog. 1/6
"The R&AW has played a crucial role in every major diplomatic maneuver since the early 1970s. From the creation of 🇧🇩 & Rajiv Gandhi’s reset with 🇨🇳 in 1988 to rebuilding human assets in 🇵🇰 in the 21st c. & shaping international negotiations, the R&AW’s hand is clear." (9/12)
@CNNnews18
has an explainer on India's interests in Afg that quotes a
@CarnegieIndia
paper authored by
@Rudra_81
and me: How Invested India Is In Afghanistan. What Taliban In Kabul Means For New Delhi
🧵 on my interview with Dr. Srinath Raghavan on his book '1971: A Global History of the Creation of Bangladesh' for
@UChicago
's Committee on South Asian Studies: (1/6)
🧵 on my interview with
@srinathraghava3
on his book 1971: A Global History of the Creation of Bangladesh for
@UChicago
's Committee on South Asian Studies [from April '22] - (1/10)
Can the no. of ceasefire violations shed light on how 🇮🇳🇵🇰 ties are faring? It's been two decades since the ceasefire agreement and I dug into the numbers to understand the state of bilateral ties for Indialog, my weekly newsletter on 🇮🇳's national security. Link in bio.
The refusal of visas for Afghan students is a real tragedy. I argue in
@SAVoices
that strong people-to-people ties are an imp. factor in🇮🇳🇦🇫 ties and while security concerns persist, there is a lot more that India can do to further support Afghan citizens:
Afghanistan embassy announces shutdown citing lack of resources since Taliban takeover, accuses MEA of withdrawing support from the embassy appointed by the previous Ghani government, refusing visas for 3,000 Afghan students. Reporting
@the_hindu
Fascinating conversation bw
@adam_tooze
&
@pbmehta
at
@CPR_India
that touches upon various responses to COVID and what it signifies, liberal politics, tech solutionism, & statistics and the state - via
@YouTube
Recently,
@TheEconomist
&
@business
have written about geopolitical risk, and the heads of
@WorldBank
,
@UN
, &
@jpmorgan
have warned about it. Can geopolitical risk be measured and how does it affect 🇮🇳? I have covered this & more in the 4th edition of Indialog. Link in bio.
India “might not have the levers to pull Russia away from China, but they want to give it as many opportunities as they can to stop them from putting all their eggs in the Chinese basket.”
@AlexGabuev
. The primary challenge remains 🇨🇳 as Amb. Saran notes.
🧵 on interesting/inspiring art I've come across:
Discovered Shiva Lal's depiction (from the mid-19th century) of the British opium trade thanks to
@GhoshAmitav
's 'Smoke & Ashes.' Some of his work is housed
@V_and_A
: ; (1/n)
India looks at reopening mission in Kabul minus senior diplomats via
@IndianExpress
: "The Indian security team that visited Kabul in Feb would have sought travel clearances from Taliban, and according to sources, met officials in the Taliban government."
This is similar to a recent arg. by
@ajay_shah
&
@IlaPatnaik
. Trade barriers against 🇨🇳 imports are imp but need to take place alongside an array of other measures that boost local capacity: 5/5
🚨I just published the first issue of my Indialog newsletter: 'India & G20 in the Global Context'!
I place 🇮🇳's G20 presidency in a broader global context & explain the concerns around a joint statement. You can read & subscribe to the issue here:
1/n
One of the key terrorism-related security challenges that
@Rudra_81
and I had written about in our (2020)
@CarnegieIndia
working paper on 'Dealing with the Taliban: India's Strategy in Afg' was the rise of ISKP following U.S. withdrawal:
An Indian govt official quoted in the report (speaking anonymously): We are aware China is the world’s factory” & “It cannot be dispensed with.”
@BaldwinRE
had a piece in
@voxeu
(Jan 2024) outlining the extent of 🇨🇳’s reach in global mfg: 3/5
Another insightful edition of
@CarnegieIndia
's 'Ideas and Institutions' newsletter by
@suyashrai
&
@AnirudhBurman
. Interesting takeaway on what may happen when the govt.'s fiscal space reduces: -
The 7th issue of 'Ideas and Institutions' deciphers the BJP government's strategy for using
#welfare
expenditure to reach potential voters, and includes a review essay on the book Survival of the City: Living and Thriving in an Age of Isolation. 👇
Strong people-to-people ties is an important factor of the India-Afg bilateral relationship and while security concerns from the region persist, there is a lot more that India can do to further support Afghan citizens. Read:
@SAVoices
List of key Afghan-related initiatives and select interactions between the Indian government and the Taliban (Aug. 15 '21 - Nov. 30 '23):
Data compiled for the latest edition of my newsletter on Indian natsec:
.
@CarnegieIndia
's Interpreting India podcast consistently hosts really thoughtful guests and this episode with Mr. Shyam Babu is no different. Learned so much about the politics of social justice in India & what makes a 'community'.
I learnt a lot from this podcast conversation with Mr. D. Shyam Babu of
@CPR_India
on the caste census and the politics of social justice in India. His deep understanding based on many years of research and experience shines through. Please do listen:
Alongside the sheer trauma of & challenge around retaking
#exams
, what is one to make of the 🇮🇳 v 🇨🇳 debate when you’re reading
@TheEconomist
on how 🇨🇳 is a R&D juggernaut & otoh you find that the 🇮🇳 govt can’t conduct exams that determine the future of millions of students.
Short 🧵 on the chapter below --
While the R&AW has been in the news a lot recently, few texts look at the agency's history, objectives, or structure with a critical eye. This chapter aims to correct that & delves into the agency's organizational aspects. (2/12)
- GCCs in 🇮🇳: 700 in 2010 >> 1580 in 2023 (acc. to
@nasscom
)
-
@MercedesBenzInd
employs ~6000 ppl at its Bengaluru R&D centre (largest such op. outside 🇩🇪)
- 🇺🇸 MNCs exp. on R&D activities in 🇮🇳: $1.7 bn in 2010 >> $5.5 bn in 2021 (
@BEA_News
)
The off-the-record conversation touched on the history of democracy in 🇮🇳, federalism, the role and scope of apex institutions, & what the future holds.
Insightful
@CSISIndiaChair
report on pvt sector distribution companies (discoms) in 🇮🇳: .
@RichardRossow
&
@akshatco
look at the history of electricity distribution reform & provide a roadmap for states that want to open their distribution sectors. (1/2)
Day 2: Conversations on key security issues plaguing Taiwan with CAPS’ Andrew Yang (previously in the Def Min) & INPR’s Yujen Kuo followed by a visit to the Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall
#CIRinTaiwan
🇮🇳 has “expedited visas for some Chinese citizens for projects that fall under the Modi government’s production-linked incentives scheme — the billions of dollars’ worth of subsidies earmarked to promote manufacturing.” 2/5
In the book,
@srinathraghava3
argues that the nuclearization of the subcontinent can be traced to 1971. I asked him about other major changes that came about bc of the crisis, and he notes the shift in how 🇮🇳 &🇵🇰 chose to address their issues post-1971 (7/10) -
Even as India is recalibrating its relationship with China, issues that prevent the rise of domestic mfg (such as visa restrictions) could be streamlined while ensuring there is a plan in place to build up local capacity so that reliance on foreign technicians is minimized 4/5
🚨Recent revelations by a senior 🇮🇳 def. official of
#India
#UnitedStates
intel ties & certain dev. in joint def. production (INDUS-X) raises interesting questions about the state of India-US bilateral ties. I cover this & more in the latest issue of Indialog. Link in bio >>
A few actors played a crucial role in creating the agency incl. PM Indira Gandhi, P. N. Haksar (then secretary to PM Gandhi & "arguably one of the most influential civil servants," per
@Jairam_Ramesh
), and R&AW's first chief, R. N. Kao. (4/12)
Detailed ground reporting on West Bengal's ambitious coal mining project and its impact on the environment & local population by
@tdeoll
in
@down2earthindia
's latest issue + protests by the local community:
For the latest ed. of Indialog (my weekly newsletter), I spoke w/ Amb.
@VGokhale59
about his book 'After Tiananmen: The Rise of 🇨🇳.' The conv. touched on lessons that 🇮🇳 can draw from China's rise, bilateral ties, and challenges to Chinese leadership:
1/7 Recently, there have been several illuminating conversations about
#Afghanistan
. Some of the ones I found helpful include:
@SteveCollNY
on the distinct phases of the 20-year war & how the Feb. 2020 agreement gave the Taliban a battlefield advantage:
Interesting intervention on electoral bonds by
@AnirudhBurman
. How does one balance confidentiality & transparency when it comes to electoral financing:
In Issue
#44
of Ideas and Institutions, I write about Daniel Chandler's book "Free and Equal: What Would a Fair Society Look Like?", which introduces, defends, and applies John Rawls's ideas. And
@AnirudhBurman
writes about electoral bonds. Read/subscribe:
1/ "Our FTA negotiations is the floor not the ceiling of our ambitions"
@DavidLammy
on 🇮🇳🇬🇧 trade talks. What does the return of the Labour Party mean for India-UK ties? I analyzed this and more for my newsletter Indialog. Link in image & bio.
UK foreign minister
@DavidLammy
says he'll push for reset of India-Britain ties during visit to New Delhi, including by reiterating commitment to securing FTA.
Survey results from
@GallupNews
on how Indians think about the future, standard of living, and climate change.
Inside India: World's Most Populous Nation Looks Ahead
Long term aid packages to Afg and assistance to the ANA can "serve as a deterrent" and, crucially, act as a morale booster: How US can exit Afghanistan and still avoid the ‘betrayal’ tag via
@ThePrintIndia
@Rudra_81
@CarnegieIndia
The chapter traces the origins of the R&AW. Created after 🇮🇳's defeat in the 1962 war with 🇨🇳 & 🇵🇰's covert military infiltration in J&K in 1965, the R&AW's initial priority was to strengthen the agency's capacity for collecting intel in & on China & Pak. (3/12)
This
@BJP4India
post is another marker of the increasing interplay between domestic politics and foreign policy. Drawing on 2 recent incidents, I try to make sense of the dynamic between domestic politics & FP for the latest edition of
#Indialog
—
(1/3)
🧵 on
#PakistanElection
- 🇵🇰 is heading to the polls tomorrow. In the latest edition of Indialog, I look at how 🇵🇰 elections might shape 🇮🇳-🇵🇰 ties. While ties have deteriorated over the past decade, recent shifts might augur well for the 2 states: (1/3)
Articles on how the developing 🇷🇺-🇨🇳 partnership can impact Russia's defense ties with India. Former FS Saran: "China now has the capacity to limit Russian engagement with India, including in defence. This must now enter our own foreign policy and security calculations." 1/4
Fmr 🇮🇳 FS Saran:
Ukraine gives China "much greater leverage over Russia and on the latter’s capacity to pursue independent relations with other states such as India. China now has the capacity to limit Russian engagement with India, including in defence."
Fascinating conversation on Indian democracy -
@ProfVarshney
talks about the imp of leadership, how subculture diversity helps (!) democratization in India, democratic backsliding under the current gov. & more:
🎙️Episode 104🎙️
India is perhaps the original democracy in a hard place.
@ProfVarshney
from
@WatsonInstitute
&
@SouthAsiaBrown
explains why India's democracy thrived despite such "inhospitable conditions" as well as the threats to its democracy today.
In a
@CarnegieIndia
working paper (June 2020), co-authored with
@Rudra_81
, we highlighted a set of mitigation strategies that could help India protect its interests. One of the recommendations was to reach out to certain parts of the Taliban.
@suhasinih
: Officials confirmed that "India is engaging all stakeholders in Afghanistan, including some parts of the Taliban, as part of a “multi-track” strategy necessitated by the advance of the Taliban militants"
On the new iPhone having a USB-C port, as
@_jessicamendoza
notes when it comes to tech regulation: "whatever happens in Brussels doesn't just stay in Brussels" +
@samschech
on changes Big Tech will be making because of EU's tech regulations -
IPhones w USB-C are just the latest example! Now more EU rules are coming, and big tech May have no choice but to bend.
@kimmackrael
and I have more on
@wsj
’s The Journal podcast.
“So despite being the fifth largest economy in the world, India’s ability to fund health, education, and public services is severely constrained by low individual prosperity” -
@EmergingRoy
@UzairYounus
Also
@srinathraghava3
's '1971: A Global History of the Creation of Bangladesh' which places the event in the global context of the late 1960s and early 1970s (link to my interview with the author: )
🧵 on my interview with
@srinathraghava3
on his book 1971: A Global History of the Creation of Bangladesh for
@UChicago
's Committee on South Asian Studies [from April '22] - (1/10)
Great opportunity for those interested in India's policy-making space & tech policy roles!
@CarnegieIndia
@Rudra_81
@SuryaValliappan
Check out the work Carnegie's Tech & Society program does here:
Carnegie India's Technology and Society initiative is inviting applications to select a suitable candidate for a year-long "Young Ambassadors Program" based in New Delhi.
For more details and to apply 👇
🚨 Hurry, last date to apply is March 17, 2023!
We argue that "a balance needs to be struck between maintaining secrecy and providing a necessary degree of oversight" & recommend 5 measures that can help improve the R&AW's administrative functioning. Pick up a copy of the book to know more! (10/12)
When
#NordStream
was bombed in Sept, Russia was immediately blamed for the attack.
Five months later, Hersh reported that the US carried out the attack.
Four weeks later, NYT & WaPo quote anonymous US officials to report that some nameless Ukraine group carried out the attack.
A striking aspect of the crisis was the biases held by Pres. Nixon and Kissinger, then the NSA, about India & Pakistan. For Nixon, Indira Gandhi was a "witch" while Yahya Khan was an "honorable man faced with an impossible situation" (8/10) -
"As much as we talk about the phrase “energy transition,” the history of energy is not one of transition — it’s one of addition" -
@JasonBordoff
What Happens When Great Power Conflict and Climate Action Collide?
@ezraklein
@OSullivanMeghan
We are not in an energy transition. We are in an energy addition.
Energy demand keeps going up, and only a small portion of that is being covered by the increases in renewable energy. 82% of the worlds energy still comes from fossil fuels.
@prateekkapil
Really interesting. This
@CarnegieEndow
paper by
@CChivvis
&
@beatrix__gb
on middle powers (incl India) also shows the different approaches that states have taken while navigating geopolitical fault lines. Tough choices for India indeed -
By the 1980s, "the R&AW’s purview had shifted from India’s immediate land borders to include 🇱🇰,🇦🇫, & even further afield to Africa."
@PaliwalAvi
has authored one of the few texts on the institutional links between 🇮🇳 & some African spy agencies: (6/12)
First Draft: Been working on this one-off intelligence history piece about India's creation of Ghana's secret service at the peak of the Cold War. R.N. Kao and S. Nair were the first unofficial (but acknowledged) chiefs of Accra's Foreign Service Research Bureau (FSRB). 1/n
Imp investigation on electoral bonds: "only 19 parties in India received donations through bonds" + "BJP got the largest share of the pie-67.9% or Rs 4,215.89 crore of the total electoral bonds purchased between financial years 2017-18 and 2019-20"
In 2019 the SC asked for details of Electoral Bonds from parties that got it. In sealed covers. 105 parties replied. Then SC forgot the case.
@shreegireesh
,
@poonamjourno
&
@someshjha7
dug the data out. BJP got 68% of funds. Only 16 other parties got bonds