Upstream Ag Professional - Feb 9 25 ◼︎◼︎◼︎ This week's essential news and analysis includes: 1. FY 2024 Ag Equipment Manufacturer Earnings Highlights and Analysis | @JohnDeere @AGCOcorp @CNHIndustrial A look at the major equipment manufacturers FY 2024, 2025 Outlook, comments on Tariffs, how their precision spraying approaches differ and much more. Images attached. 2. John Deere Expands Options for Adding Precision Technology How does the revenue model change tech adoption for Deere? 3. FMC Q4 2024 Earnings Call Highlights and Analysis FMC stock dropped 35% last week. A look at what they shared during their earnings call and what it means for the future of FMCs product strategy, go-to-market strategy and where their future growth will come from. 4. Earnings Results Highlights and Analysis for @corteva , FMC, UPL, @NufarmUS , @LavoroAgro and @yara 5. Model Capacity and Agronomic Prowess: Measuring What Matters 6. @LandusAg and @TalusAg Deliver First Local Green Ammonia Production in North America How much does it produce? Is it viable? How will they sell product? + more. @UpstreamAg

@ConnorSible @OSU_NPK @Agronomy_Guy The group that put that chart together said they stopped counting at over 1,200 companies …@Mixingbowlhub

@OSU_NPK @Agronomy_Guy Thanks for sharing Brian! Very much appreciate it and the feedback. Will be continually updating that in the future, too.

John Deere 2024 Annual Report Highlights and Analysis ◼︎◼︎◼︎ The market was challenging for equipment dealers, including @JohnDeere , in 2024. Last week I broke down their financial results along with sharing some other details from 2024 earnings calls. Here are a few notable take aways: 1. Deere total company revenue declined 16%. Revenue is at just over $51 billion, back to 2022 levels. The outlook is for a challenging 2025. 2. Precision and Production Ag revenue down 22%, with margins down as well. The 2025 PPA business is expected to decline a further 15%, with the biggest headwinds in Canada and the United States. 3. Deere progressed towards their Leaps Ambitions targets, growing connected machines by 20% and digital engaged acres by 17%. Highly and sustainably engaged acres grew even at 36% and 23%, respectively. 4. Deere covered more than 1 million acres in 2024 with See & Spray. For 2025, Deere has received over 1,000 orders for the systems, between Premium and Ultimate. There are more than 25 images in the full highlights and analysis and a look further details within the John Deere business, and greater equipment market. Check out @UpstreamAg for the full breakdown.

Upstream Ag Professional - Feb 2 25 ◼︎◼︎◼︎ This week's essential news and analysis includes: 1. @JohnDeere 2024 Annual Report Highlights and Analysis 2. 2024 AgTech VC Trends Report 3. Where Are the Greatest Innovations for the Biologicals Market Coming From? 4. @themodernacre podcast team launches AgList: ‘It’s like Yelp for agriculture’ 5. Titan Machinery at the 27th Annual ICR Conference: Transcript Key Takeaways 6. Ichor Agriculture Announces Matt Crisp as CEO and Suggests New Fungicide Class 7. ICIG Ventures Invests in Ascribe Bio 8. GROWERS Revolutionizes Agriculture Loyalty Program Through Use of AI + more! @upstreamag

As highlighted in The Long Tail of AI by Contrary Research, artificial intelligence is not the central part of the vast majority of businesses, but most companies will be impacted by developments in AI technology. This long tail is directly applicable to agribusinesses: How will advancements in artificial intelligence impact agricultural companies whose business models and practices have long predated AI tools like ChatGPT? How are employees across the agricultural sector, from agronomists and researchers to operations managers and supply chain analysts, using artificial intelligence today? How might they use artificial intelligence in the future to enhance productivity, decision-making, and resource management? Where do they want to access these systems? How are agricultural companies positioning themselves in the AI marketplace? Are they building proprietary AI models tailored to agriculture, or are they leveraging third-party tools to support these applications? How should agricultural companies be strategically positioning themselves within the rapidly evolving AI landscape? The answer depends on whether it is an agricultural software company or a crop input/equipment manufacturer or an ag retail/dealership, however the point is that there is a need to understand and think through employee workflow, customer demands and product and support functionality to identify where challenges can be solved with AI. But that’s just one component. I believe it is important to understand what is occurring within the largest technology companies, the enablers, surrounding artificial intelligence to glean deeper insights into what the implications might be in the short, medium and long term for agriculture and for agribusiness professionals. Much like I do to understand the agriculture industry, I turned to earnings results and earnings call transcripts for pieces of information and context that could signal a trend or be important in assessing what comes next. In the full article you’ll find notable quotes, facts and figures surrounding artificial intelligence initiatives from the major technology and AI players along with additional commentary from me (where applicable) on what the potential implication might be for agribusiness professionals and enterprises. Note, this was before DeepSeek, but contextualizes a lot of what companies are doing and the implications on agribusiness. @UpstreamAg

In December, I attended the Agricultural Retailers Association Conference. Some common questions I heard were “What technologies are you watching?” or “Is there a new technology out there that we should be watching closely?” The question that I think is more relevant is “Are there companies to watch?” It’s a subtle difference, but an important one. It’s not the technology. Companies make the difference. People solve problems with technology. Teams find ways to elegantly change human behavior. Companies, full of smart people, with a unique world view, experience and tools to solve a specific need in a customer set are the ones that change industries. Often tools are the application of new technologies, usually multiple in a unique combination that gives them an edge in solving an unmet need, or improving the delivery of the solution. Being able to effectively integrate various technologies together is what drives success and change in an industry. New Technology is Required, But Insufficient. Consider the Haber-Bosch Method— Fritz Haber developed the process at laboratory scale. BASF and Carl Bosch turned it into a scalable, industrial process that could be used to produce nitrogen fertilizer. That’s where the impact came from. We need the technology, but companies effectively scale and deliver it into the market. Or consider gene editing— the technology itself is compelling. However, the technology will only contribute meaningfully if a company knows the problems they need to solve at commercial scale, have a deep knowledge of plant genomes to understand where to edit and the ability to bring that product to market effectively, navigating regulatory hurdles and distribution hurdles. It’s not just about cutting-edge technology in agriculture—it’s about ensuring that technology is applied effectively, integrates seamlessly into diverse farming or agribusiness operations and delivers practical value while also being able to capture some of that value from a business model perspective. Technology alone won’t do that. People can do that. Teams can do that. Companies with the right culture do that. Therefore the better type of question to ask is, what companies stand out to you and why?

RT @PFDeditors: Shane Thomas, agribusiness analyst for @UpstreamAg, dives into @JohnDeere’s patent portfolio and what it could mean for the…

Upstream Ag Professional - Jan 26 25 ◼︎◼︎◼︎ This week's essential news and analysis includes: 1. Beyond Retrofits: The Growing Importance of Tech Stacks in Ag Equipment and the Consideration of Integrated vs. Modular 2. Unlocking Loyalty: The Evolution of Grower Programs in North America with Data from Stratus Ag Research Are Manufacturers Getting the Results They Want from Their Incentive Programs? 3. 3BarBio Announces Concept to Creation, Microbial Delivery Innovation Challenge | + what 3Bar is doing for the future of microbes in ag. 4. 2025 in AgTech… So what? with Shane Thomas | @svnoles A look at what makes agtech companies successful, and a look at CVC and VC. 5. A Distinguished Expert and Senior Science Fellow’s Observations and Insights about Bayer’s DSO Reorganization 6. Algorithms, Agents and Agriculture - The Future of AI will Transform Everything - AI or die? AgTech leans into the future - How AI Agents Fit Into Agribusiness 7. @AGCOcorp Precision Planting Conference Highlights 8. @JohnDeere Announces its 2025 Startup Collaborators + more! @UpstreamAg

RT @ShaneAgronomy: What is @AGCOcorp up to? Answer: A lot. But what's most interesting to me is their focus on service evolution for farm…

RT @JanetteJoyB: I recently interviewed Dr. Kee Jim, founder of Feedlot Health Management Services, GK Jim Farms, and Blackshirt Feeders —…

Upstream Ag Professional Big Four Stories of the Week ◼︎◼︎◼︎ An overview of what agribusiness leaders will find in this weekend's edition: 1. Integrated Tech Stacks and Precision Technology in Ag Equipment When I first meaningfully wrote about autonomy and automation of smart equipment in August of 2021, I talked about my view that integration in the equipment space will win out. While this view isn’t universally agreed upon, and there is ample rationale to be bullish on multi-color, retrofit solutions, I think it is worthwhile to dive deeper into what "integration” means and why it is compelling in terms of performance in the context of equipment manufacturers with precision and autonomous functionality. 2. Unlocking Loyalty: The Evolution of Grower Programs in North America Recently @group_icl 's GROWERS shared an article on the "minimal" impact from manufacturer grower programs. The data I have read from Stratus Ag Research suggests that might not be the case, but there is opportunity in evolving these programs nonetheless. Where is the opportunity for retailers? Where is the opportunity for start-ups? One image of the dozen charts from the article shared below. 3. @3BarBiologics Announces Concept to Creation, Microbial Delivery Innovation Challenge A look at 3Bar as a Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization (CDMO) and what we can learn from the pharmaceutical industry. 4. Algorithms, Agents and Agriculture There was a lot of buzz on AI agents this week and news from @OpenAI. How might AI agents fit into agribusiness and farmers efforts? Plus more, including a podcast with @svnoles and Matthew Pryor of @TenaciousVentures and a look at VC, CVC and companies catching their attention and news from @JohnDeere and @AGCOcorp

Is a Super App Possible in North American Agriculture? What is a Super App? The concept of the “Super App” was first introduced by BlackBerry founder Mike Laziridis in his 2010 Mobile World Congress address. He described Super Apps as platforms that create seamless, integrated experiences, blending core applications into a single, intuitive interface that becomes a natural part of daily life. Originally, Lazaridis envisioned BlackBerry as the Super App, a one-stop solution for essential needs and routines. This is the core foundation of Super Apps: they are built around convenience—providing a central hub where users can access most of what they need with ease, all in one place. Where are they popular and why? Super apps gained popularity in Asia, especially with WeChat and AliPay in China. In many cases, these apps arose from unique market dynamics and constraints: Limited computer / internet penetration — Many consumers in these regions skipped the desktop/laptop era and jumped straight to mobile, creating an opportunity to build centralized mobile solutions. Demand for convenience — Given the fast-paced lifestyles and the high adoption of smartphones, people sought an all-in-one solution that minimizes app-switching. The nuance here is also a lower demand for privacy and data sharing as compared to what North Americans expect, on average. Lack of infrastructure — In certain regions, traditional banking, logistics, and service providers had limitations, which super apps could address, integrating everything from payments to shopping within one app. These apps have a general starting point: A single essential service that meets a need, has high utility and has frequent usage, which is why they tend to start as messaging— you talk to your friends every hour of every day leading to habit creation and data acquisition. What could a Super App in North American Agriculture Include? For agriculture, a farmer super app, theoretically, is where they can buy and pay for insurance, access financing, purchase inputs, order parts, view profitability, manage operations, look at land for purchase, sell their grain, get program rebates, include a farm decision dashboard, a job workflow for an AI agent to perform various tasks and a host of other things. @BushelOnTheFarm and @jakefromfargo see a future Super App in North American agriculture. Jake said the following in a conversation with @rpethe: "What I think is interesting, I think a trend that's going to be happening is what is agriculture's super app? There is not a super app for agriculture. What's the farmer's super app that every farmer pretty much has and needs to have, particularly in the US? That's going to be a trend that has happened in consumers in all these different parts of the consumer industry. I think agriculture is going to have a moment like that too. The question is how far are we from it." Will we see a "Super App" in North American agriculture?

For more on what AGCO is up to, including a look at their "farmer-centric" messaging, how the PTx Trimble initiative is trending, a look at their digital initiatives and adoption, their view on Precision Spraying ("See & Spray"), and their view of retrofit first, check out the full analysis:

RT @ShaneAgronomy: Monopolistic Inertia and the Agribusiness Value Chain ▪️▪️▪️ What is Monopolistic Inertia? It refers to the phenomeno…

Monopolistic Inertia and the Agribusiness Value Chain ▪️▪️▪️ What is Monopolistic Inertia? It refers to the phenomenon where oligopolistic firms, dominating sequential points in a value chain, develop a mutual reliance, reinforcement and benefit of their established roles, behaviors, and practices. This interconnected dependence discourages innovation or evolution within an industry, leading to only incremental improvements instead.

RT @ShaneAgronomy: FMC Restructures VC Arm: What does it mean and what are the implications? ◼︎◼︎◼︎ FMC Corporation has restructured its V…

FMC Restructures VC Arm: What does it mean and what are the implications? ◼︎◼︎◼︎ FMC Corporation has restructured its VC arm, FMC Ventures, leading to the elimination of key roles. While the company states its commitment to agricultural innovation, the changes align with broader R&D cuts, reflecting the pressures in a challenging market. Despite the depriortiziation of the venture division, FMC Ventures has shown its potential, driving strategic acquisition and collaboration from its portfolio companes. However, with FMC facing financial challenges and reducing innovation investments, questions are sure to arise about the long-term implications of its innovation capabilities. Can they ever evolve beyond being effectively an insecticide company? 59% of their revenue is from insecticides, and 39% of their revenue comes from the diamide insecticides, which they didn't discover, but acquired when DuPont and Dow merged. FMC needs innovation - whether it comes from internal, or external sources. Their initiatives as of late have reinforced that delivering innovation long term will be more difficult.

Yes. It’s an integration challenge. Which leads to an adoption opportunity. Which is where the John Deere patent comes in. They didn’t patent the testing tech, but the system around making it systematically integrated. To me the question becomes - what company(ies) does Deere decide to integrate into their ecosystem?