Rays Ranter
@RaysRanter
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I like the Rays and stats. Creator of @wikibaseballgs. MiLB prospects & baseball analytics 📊 #FantasyBaseball Dynasty ⚾️
Joined July 2019
🚨 2025 K% Projections - Pitchers 🚨 Check out my strikeout rate projections for the upcoming season‼️📈 I’ve made a Tableau where I’ll be posting data visuals and stat dashboards Profile link in bio 🔗
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Best & Worst xwOBA - wOBA in 2024 Top 5 (w/ wOBA >.230) 📈 1) Juan Soto 2) Bo Bichette 3) Patrick Bailey 4) Christopher Morel 5) Lenyn Sosa Bottom 5 📉 1) Tyler Fitzgerald 👀 2) Xavier Edwards 3) Jonah Bride 4) Jose Iglesias 5) Daulton Varsho
How good of a predictor is xwOBA? Let’s look at the 2023 xwOBA-wOBA leaders and how much their wOBA went up/down in 2024 Aaron Judge (+0.056) 📈 Vladdy Jr. (+0.058) 📈 Jake Bauers (-0.003) 📉 Alec Burleson (+0.019) 📈 Michael Massey (+0.034) 📈 ~min. 250 PA
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How good of a predictor is xwOBA? Let’s look at the 2023 xwOBA-wOBA leaders and how much their wOBA went up/down in 2024 Aaron Judge (+0.056) 📈 Vladdy Jr. (+0.058) 📈 Jake Bauers (-0.003) 📉 Alec Burleson (+0.019) 📈 Michael Massey (+0.034) 📈 ~min. 250 PA
Players who had 73+ mph average bat speed and xwOBA-wOBA > 0.040 in 2024 Juan Soto Christopher Morel Javier Baez Michael Harris II J.D. Martinez ~min. 200 PA & competitive swings only
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Pepiot 👀📈
Fastball Miss Rate - 2024 Season (Starting Pitchers) Ryan Pepiot - 31.5% Garrett Crochet - 31.4% Luis Gil - 28.5% Yusei Kikuchi - 28.0% Grayson Rodriguez - 27.0%
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Englert was 3rd in Whiff% in Triple-A for pitchers 24 & younger FB velo increased in 2024 with 5.4 BB% in 21.2 IP in MLB He throws 6 pitches with CH being most frequent (29%)
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Top 5 K% risers in 2025 in my projection model 1) Camilo Doval (+3.1%) 2) Hunter Greene (+3.0%) 👀 3) Osvaldo Bido (+2.7%) 🎥 4) José Buttó (+2.6%) 5) Hunter Gaddis (+2.6%) Bido is also 99th percentile or better generating weak contact. Deep sleeper.
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Triple A starters (23 & younger) with best Whiff-K% and K%>20 Nick Nastrini - 8% Ty Madden - 7.2% Mason Montgomery - 7.1% 👀 Quinn Priester - 6.3% Cristian Mesa - 5.5% ~min. 250 PA against
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Two players that weren’t mentioned here but I also expect to improve in 2025: - Lenyn Sosa - Michael Harris II Both had xwOBA-wOBA > 0.045* last season under age 25 *Top 10 in MLB for players with 200 PA
Just did a piece predicting which hitters will have a better year in 2025 using regression of Barrel%, check it out:
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Players who had 73+ mph average bat speed and xwOBA-wOBA > 0.040 in 2024 Juan Soto Christopher Morel Javier Baez Michael Harris II J.D. Martinez ~min. 200 PA & competitive swings only
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@Andrew_FBB I’ve been bullish on Ramos. Powerful and compact swing. Only 2 players 24 & younger had ISO > .200 and avg EV > 90 with a short swing (<= 7 ft). The other is Colton Cowser. He was top 10% of league in: - Avg EV - xSLG - Bat Speed
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Comparing 2023 Whiff-K% leaders (SPs) to see if their K% went up/down in 2024: Shane McClanahan - 25.6% (injured) Buck Farmer - 23% 📈 23.4% Tanner Houck - 21.7% 📉 20.7% Matthew Boyd - 24.3% 📈 27.7% Charlie Morton - 25.9% 📉 23.8% So it’s not the best predictor
Starters with best Whiff-K% in 2024 (min. 20 K% and 250 PA) Jesús Luzardo - 8.7% Reese Olson - 7% Max Scherzer - 6.6% John Means - 6.3% José Buttó - 5.6% Reese Olson was 2nd in FIP (3.17) for players 24 & younger. Top 15% in Chase%, GB% and Barrel%
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It’s also possible that Whiff-K% regresses to the mean (which is 2.3% league-wide) in a way where Whiffs decrease 📉 rather than Ks increase📈 Other factors go into predicting K% other than Whiffs 74% of the variation of K% can be predicted by Whiff% based on 2024 data
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