Lance Brozdowski
@LanceBroz
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Player Development Analyst @WatchMarquee | Former Remote Vid Editor @DrivelineBB | NU + UMass
Chicago, USA
Joined August 2009
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Pinned Tweet
The fastball is dying. The Boston
#RedSox
are killing it.
New video on the downtrend in fastball usage, why it makes sense, and a sharp idea on how to think about sequencing just dropped. 🔥
(Includes the best thumbnail I've ever made.)
Tease ⬇️, full vid next tweet!
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Gerrit Cole's fingers literally stick to his hat here... Bro... 😂
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Ronald Acuna's reaction to Orlando Arcia trying to remove his hand from second base is priceless. 😂
#Braves
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I’m hearing the Rockies are paying $20m of Bauer’s 2021 salary.
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Wade Miley with an incredible, no-look catch of a cliff bar during an in-game interview.
@WatchMarquee
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Livvy Dunne in 2025: “The splinker he added is actually his best pitch. To be able to kill that much vert above 95 is a game-changer.
People who didn’t like his fastball shape in college just didn’t understand how much velo can help dead-zone shapes succeed.”
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Gerrit Cole fastball, knuckle-curve, slider overlay. 🔥⚾️🤢👑
Without a doubt, one of the most incredible pitching performances I have ever watched.
#Astros
33(!) swinging strikes, 15 strikeouts. Wow.
#ALDSGame2
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Walker Buehler fastball, cutter, curveball overlay. 🔥⚾️⚾️🔥⚾️
#Dodgers
6 IP, H, 3 BB, 8 K outing for the 25-year-old. 👑
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Wacha threw the greatest changeup ever (exaggeration ... maybe?) last season in a completely irrelevant game.
-10" iVB
15" arm-side
82.5 mph
6.6' release
1,443 rpm
Literal screwball. Hurts my brain.
Average CH from >6.3' release has 10" iVB.
This is dropping 20" more!
Passan name-dropped Michael Wacha as a potential target for the Cubs during his segment on ESPN 1000 just now.
Of course not an exciting name, but Wacha has a 3.27 ERA, 1.14 WHIP in 261.1 IP the last 2 seasons.
Pair him up with Bieber and it's solid for the rotation.
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Catcher framing has always fascinated me from an analytical & eye-test standpoint. I’ve watched some video and have thoughts -- give me your reactions.
First, Realmuto is INCREDIBLE at continuing pitch movement into zone. (1/6)
#Phillies
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69% of the pitches Trevor Bauer threw tonight were out of the strike zone, a career high.
#Reds
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Dodgers still have Ryan Pepiot (has always been the
#1
Dodger prospect arm, imo) and Bobby Miller after this deal.
Their depth is truly unfair.
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Best top 3 starters in baseball:
1A. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Bobby Miller
1B. Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert
2. Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez
Discuss…
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The
#Yankees
sacrificed 2 mph of velocity to pick up 6" of horizontal movement on Clay Holmes' slider between 2021 and 2022.
How? They flipped him to a 2-seam SL grip. 💫⚾️
Swinging strike rate on the pitch went from 17% ➡️ 31%.
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If you’re the 29 other teams in MLB, stop reading this and call Perry Minasian.
I beg of you. Do it before Detmers gets traded to the Dodgers and wins a Cy Young.
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It’s come to my attention that Ragans’ last K here to Neto was 101 mph with 20” induced vertical break (iVB).
Closest shape/velo he had last year was 98.9 mph with 20” iVB. He got up to 101 mph last year too but it was with just 15” iVB.
Yeesh. 🤢
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The first away game Shohei Ohtani will play as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the United States?
Wrigley Field
April 5th, 2024
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Outstanding slow-motion look at Mike Clevinger's (
@Mike_Anthony13
) mechanics from the stretch.
#Indians
@PitchingNinja
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Pulled some hitting data from the minor leagues. The stats below are from the 4 levels between Class A and Triple-A.
#MiLB
Here's xwOBA:
1. Yankees .358 💪
2. Mariners .358
3. Tigers .354 📈
...
28. Braves .331 🤨
29. Nationals .328
30. Royals .328 😬
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Spencer Strider started doing the exercise in his viral hip mobility video during his Freshman year at
@ClemsonBaseball
. They're called hip "CARS."
Credits Clemson strength coach Rick Franzblau.
On
@PitchingNinja
's "quadzilla" nickname: "I'm proud of my quads."
#ForTheA
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Lot of buzz around Robbie Ray these last few days. His arm-action change is pretty substantial. Sky is the limit if his walks come down.
Also noticed his momentum towards home plate is direct. Still a 3B side fall-off but more controlled.
#DBacks
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Are we aware that Tarik Skubal has been the best pitcher in baseball since the All-Star break?
#Tigers
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I cloned
@ChristianYelich
so I could show you all the difference in his swing on high and low pitches.👍
Both hits are dingers mashed over 106 mph. 🔥
(Hey
@PitchingNinja
, can we get the hashtag
#quarantineoverlays
going?) ⚾️
#Brewers
#MLB
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The Nationals tomorrow:
“We’re going to hit to SOFT and we’re going to hit it ON THE GROUND.”
A new addition above the Red Sox batting cages, quote from Ted Williams: “We’re going to learn to do two things… we’re going to hit it hard and we’re going to hit it in the air.”
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Just got
@DrivelineBB
's first output of Stuff+ from
#OpeningDay
. Some standouts:
Cole Ragans 4S - 147 ➡️ 183
Tarik Skubal 4S - 112 ➡️ 170
Shane Bieber 4S - 87 ➡️ 120
Shane Bieber CH - 103 ➡️ 121
Brayan Bello SL - 148 ➡️ 168
Logan Webb SL - 171 ➡️ 194
Zac Gallen 4S - 124 ➡️ 90
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Working on a video about splitters.
Here are two different orientations I found that Shohei Ohtani uses.
#Angels
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The most interesting hitter in baseball is still ...
Isaac Paredes
-5th percentile bat speed (slow bat)
-5th pct swing length (long swing)
-62nd pct squared-up rate (avg barrel accuracy)
-80th pct ISO (hits tanks)
-As many HR as Ronald Acuna Jr, Julio Rodriguez since '22
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The weirdest thing the
#Rays
did w/ Zach Eflin is adjust his changeup.
He's now getting *more* backspin on it (10" iVB) than his sinker (5" iVB) & it's down 2 mph. Most CH have 5"+ *less* iVB than fastball.
7 swings, 6 whiffs today.
I'd like to coin this a "reverse changeup."
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Fun interview with Pete Crow-Armstrong and Matt Mervis (
@mmervis12
) during today's game. Great dudes, even better prospects.
#Cubs
PCA is scoping out CF. Mervis might eventually ask to move the right field corner in. 😉
@WatchMarquee
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Hayden Birdsong spikes his changeup? Super cool!
I was scratching my head on how he could possibly be getting negative vertical break at 88 mph from a 6.4' release without a splitter grip.
Spiked middle finger has to play a part in kicking axis down at release?
#Giants
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Aaron Ashby messing with Andrew Vaughn's timing. Three different motions on three consecutive pitches.
He caused some noticeably uncomfortable swings in his inning of work today - 3 Ks.
Nasty SL, high release point, FB seemed to work up in zone well. 📈
#Brewers
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84
617
10
90
597
"Bizarre training methods" have led the
#Yankees
to the following organizational ranks (combining the 4 levels between Class A and Triple-A):
#3
in 90th percentile Exit Velocity
#1
xwOBA
Bottom-10 Chase Rate
An objectively good organization at developing MLB hitters.
A) MLB
"There's no baseball being taught"
A former Yankees prospect leaked some bizarre training methods being used in their minor league hitting approach.
Yankee fans will not be happy.
▶️
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670
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Yoshinobu Yamamoto data from yesterday
#Dodgers
:
4S - 95.8 mph, 16.5" iVB, 8" run, 5.5' release
Two different splits, each thrown 2x...
SPL 1 - 90.6 mph, .5" iVB, 11" run
SPL 2 - 90.8 mph, 4.3" iVB, 6.7" run
CU - 76.7 mph, -19 iVB, 14" sweep
CT - 92.5 mph, 8.4" iVB, 2.5" sweep
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Think I found the Zach Eflin changeup tweak I've been looking for... and it's VERY subtle. Interesting they've pulled him off the seam.
Dropping 4" more, running 2" more, velo down <1 mph, whiff rate 10% to 36%.
#Rays
tweaking CH orientations, a tale old as time.
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Let's take a look at MiLB organizational ranks for offensive xwOBA this season.
Below includes the 4 levels between Class A and Triple-A:
1. Yankees
2. Tigers
t3. Reds - Mariners
t4. Cubs - Padres
....
28. Angels
t29. Athletics - Nationals
30. Royals
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Nerds: "sweet, love splitters. vertical separation from a fastball is so important!"
Old school: "pfft, good luck with those arm troubles"
NPB pitchers: "I have 54 splitter grips"
Sharp coaches: "where's the peer-reviewed research they cause arm troubles... DOESN'T EXIST"
Is the Splitter is Gonna Be This Year’s Sweeper? Some Cubs Are Giving It a Shot
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Nice look at David Festa's mechanics.
#Twins
7 feet of extension on his fastball is greater than ~90% of MLB right-handers.
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BREAKING: Sources telling me Jarred Kelenic has been promoted to High-A Modesto (
@ModestoNuts
).
Slashed .304/.394/.558 with the West Virginia Power. Doesn't turn 20 years old until July. 👀🔥
#Mariners
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Brent Honeywell has averaged just 8% screwball usage in his career.
In his last 2 outings with the Dodgers, he's thrown the pitch 22% and 41%.
Usage changes are often some of the lowest-hanging fruit. It feels like the Dodgers always exploit this.
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Saw Seiya Suzuki walking into Wrigley Field this morning, fwiw. Took live BP in Arizona on Saturday.
#Cubs
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Tommy Nance might have the best pure "stuff" in the
#Cubs
bullpen.
Only one other curve in MLB thrown >85 mph gets as much drop as he gets.
No slider in MLB thrown >88mph gets as much drop as he gets.
Both spinning ~2,900 rpm & he's throwing 60% fastballs? Mix change coming?🤔
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Everybody wants the next Spencer Strider.
There probably isn't one this year. BUT if anybody has a shot, it's
#Athletics
Mason Miller.
4S: 100.0 mph, 16.5" ride, 6" arm-side, 144 Stuff+
CT: 95.7 mph, 7" lift, 3" cut/sweep, 116 Stuff+
SL: 86.5 mph, -3" drop, 9" sweep, 120 Stuff+
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Joey Cantillo's vulcan changeup is filthy.
#Guardians
The pitch has generated 49% swing-miss in MLB vs righties since his MLB debut (31% is avg). It's 78 mph with 14 mph velo separation from his fastball.
Cantillo also has 7.5' of extension (99th percentile). Lots of funk.
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Jacob Webb since the Angels DFA'd him late last year (for some reason): 34 IP, 2.91 ERA, 2.87 FIP, just 1 HR allowed
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Mike Trout adjusting to high and low pitches.
#Angels
A fun addition
#QuarantineOverlays
.
@PitchingNinja
Live baseball is back tonight, 1 am EST on ESPN. Get excited. (1/3)
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Yordan Alvarez's swing is GORGEOUS. First homer already in the books. 10/10 would recommend.
#Astros
🔥💪📈
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George Klassen and Samuel Aldegheri for Carlos Estevez. Wow.
#Angels
Klassen sits 97 mph, 2-plane fastball (14" iVB, 14" arm-side) from a near-average release height (5.7').
His premiere pitch is about as pure of a bullet slider as you can find. It's ~0" vertical and ~0"
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Here’s my in-depth breakdown on Shota Imanaga.
#Cubs
It’s a pretty unique fastball, big carry, he just threw it down in the zone too much in NPB.
Splitter is filthy. Some kind of cutter/gyro ball is where the most room for pitch design is. Fun signing!
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Nola has -13 catcher framing runs above average over his last 162 games.
If I know anything about the Brewers, Austin Nola will be a plus framing catcher next season. Book it.
Free-agent catcher Austin Nola has signed a minor-league contract with the Milwaukee Brewers that includes an invite to spring training. He was previously non-tendered by the Padres.
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MLB teams have been using a pitching machine called Trajekt to replicate in-game shapes, which was previously impossible to do.
Why is it revolutionary? Can it save hitting? Should fringe MiLB hitters even play in games anymore?!
Tease below, follow thread for full video.
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Cade Horton is working on a new changeup. He’s going with the Kevin Gausman-inspired split grip, rip it off the middle finger.
#Cubs
Threw a side with it today. Spin down to ~1,600 rpm. Easy to dream on the upside with this added to this mix.
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Garrett Crochet's new sinker is insane.
We're in the honeymoon phase of the pitch, BUT FanGraphs Stuff+ of 126 (plus-plus), 3rd highest in MLB (min 100 IP).
23 pitches, -53° launch (lol) on 3 balls in play, 30% swinging-strike rate.
Cool look at the spin below.
#WhiteSox
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Fascinating conversation w/ Owen Caissie in Myrtle Beach about his swing for
@WatchMarquee
.
Below he talks about how the
#Cubs
stood him up in his stance to free up his lower half.
Bet on Caissie to make adjustments at higher levels. Stud. 🔥
Full vid:
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This Triston Casas' quote from
@enosarris
's piece on the bat speed rollout is really good.
I hadn't thought about the stress implications of training hitters from a speed-of-movement perspective.
Rib/Obliques are the new UCLs for hitters?! I hope not. 😬
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Walker Buehler fastball-curveball overlay, spin differences, home-plate view. Enjoy!
#Dodgers
🔥⚾️👌
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Let's talk changeups. ⚾️
Data suggests vertical mvmt separation from a fastball makes elite CHs MORE than velo separation. (h/t
@LanginTots13
)
With that in mind, Patrick Sandoval becomes a tough one to explain. But I have a theory! 💡
Tease below. Full:
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One pitch apart, but this is an unfair sequence from Cole Ragans to Jordan Westburg.
95-mph cutter
88-mph changeup
Stop it.
#Royals
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385
Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s splitter is filthy.
90 mph, 2” iVB, 10-12” arm-side, ~1500 rpm, 48% whiff in the WBC. Had ~15” arm-side, 38% whiff in NPB.
Dropping 14-15” more than his 4S, only ~5 mph slower. Money combo for whiffs.
WBC plot below showing large variance in the shape,
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Ohtani 2B in first Wrigley AB
Bobby Miller pulled after 5 ER in 1.2 IP
@FoolishBB
and I met
These things are all connected.
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Jeremiah Estrada has been stellar this year.
He's adjusted his fastball (more cut) & slider (harder), but my favorite tweak? His splitter
He told me he learned the grip by watching videos of Eric Gagne and added his own subtle tweaks.
It's wacky & nasty.
#Padres
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Me: “That’s what I’m keying in on, do you get balls above that 104 mph area at the right launch angles.”
Harold Reynolds: “It drives me crazy to hear that…” 😂
Fighting the good fight. Bat speed matters. A lot.
@MLBNetwork
’s Draft Combine coverage was a blast.
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Edwin Rios just took Drew Smyly 400+ ft deep to CF, easy barrel.
Left-left. Might be a dude.
#Cubs
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Slam dunk here. DJ is an 80-grade dude, gonna miss him. If Nats can get him in zone, could look bad long term. Tracking more as RP.
Made’s 90th EV has never inspired me + Cubs couldn’t get him to lift the ball. I never really understood the hype there from certain list-makers.
SOURCE: I'm hearing the Cubs are sending prospects DJ Herz and and Kevin Made for Jeimer Candelario.
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Fun moment on a broadcast when you can spot some seam effects (direction of the ball’s spin changing in flight) in a strikeout replay. 👀
#Cubs
#Guardians
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Josh Hader has never allowed two, two-strike home runs in any appearance of his career.
#Brewers
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Kris Bryant adjusting to up/in and low/away pitches.
@SeanMarshall45
killed it breaking this down on
@WatchMarquee
. 👑⚾️
#Cubs
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327
Joe Ryan's new split-changeup is pretty filthy.
#Twins
Old changeup was only separating itself from his four-seam by 5-6".
New split-change is all the way down to 1,300 RPM, averaging 10" of separation from his four-seam, 0-2" iVB. Whiff-maker.
@DrivelineBB
Here are a few...
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Bo Bichette's swing on his long, two-strike homer. Notice how hard he hits this ball without his standard leg kick. 👀💪🔥
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Here's presumably a look at the moment Andy Green told Chris Paddack through Eric Hosmer, per
@sdutKevinAcee
, he officially made the
@Padres
. Starting Sunday against the Giants at Petco Park. What a story, what a player.
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Garrett Crochet looks filthy.
There's a cutter in there with the four-seams. It'll be something like:
4S: 98 mph, 16" vertical, 8" horizontal
CT: 94 mph, 9" vrt, 1" hrz
And a sweeper with 12"+ sweep at 84 mph? Yes. 🔥
3 plus or better pitches.
#WhiteSox
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FERNANDO TATIS JR. HOME RUN
#Padres
#SpringTraining
Line drive, open-face swing, hustle out of the box. 😍😍😍
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Michael Kopech's release point was down 3-4" today relative to the average in his prior 3 starts.
He was able to maintain fastball shape (~17.5" iVB), pick up 1 mph of velo, and add 1" of arm-side run.
So yeah. That's a pretty good way to make your fastball better.
#WhiteSox
📈
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316
It looks like Pete Fairbanks is working on a splitter... and it's beyond filthy.
#Rays
He's separating it from his four-seam by about 11" (of induced vertical break), but it's only ~4 mph slower, elite CH/SPL territory.
Here's the only pair we have on video right now:
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Cubs are aggressive with fastball usage. Astros said, "lol stop that."
Neris cut his fastball from 50% to 40% vs lefties, from 48% to 31% vs righties, and double his sinker usage with HOU.
FIP vs lefties went from 4.42 w/ CHC to 2.09 w/ HOU. But wait! There's more...
Hector Neris with the ...
Cubs: 23.5 K%, 13.5 BB%
Astros: 25.9 K%, 3.7 BB%
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5
8
315
#OpeningDay
pitcher shape metrics of note.
Quick thoughts on Shane McClanahan, Logan Webb, Hunter Harvey, Reynaldo López, Pablo López, & Luis Castillo.
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30
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#Mariners
continue to be fascinating developmentally.
-2nd lowest swing rate
-Lowest chase rate
-2nd highest xwOBA
-Highest wOBA
On the pitching side, they were
#1
slider usage,
#1
sinker usage, lowest 4S, lowest release.
Pulled some hitting data from the minor leagues. The stats below are from the 4 levels between Class A and Triple-A.
#MiLB
Here's xwOBA:
1. Yankees .358 💪
2. Mariners .358
3. Tigers .354 📈
...
28. Braves .331 🤨
29. Nationals .328
30. Royals .328 😬
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What if every catcher had ONE universal target when receiving any kind of pitch?
The idea isn't crazy and teams like the
#Rays
are already doing it.
A video on why it works and how command tracking can help. Teaser below. Enjoy. ⚾️
Full video:
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Reid Detmers is an easy breakout call for me in 2023.
It’s due to a progressive change in his slider last season, which settled on a true gyro shape at 87+ mph.
#Angels
So why do gyro sliders work? And why is Detmers’ nasty?
Tease below. Full 🎥:
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36
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Matt Strahm's 🎱 strikeouts on 5⃣6⃣ pitches tonight against the Reds gives us 30 seconds of absolute carnage. You should be paying attention to this guy. 👀🔥⚾️
#Padres
#SpringTraining
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Oh my. Freddy Peralta had 23" of induced vertical break on this 4S to Alonso in the 1st from a 5.3' release. Melting my brain. 🤯
Average vertical from a 5.3' release is just 14.5".
Peralta averaged 15.2" in 2023. His release height is up 2.5" in this game.
#Brewers
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13
297
Man, I rewatched Tyler Glasnow’s first inning numerous times, recorded footage, slowed it down, chopped it up and I had trouble spotting his tip.
And I KNEW beforehand his glove was lower on curveballs.
Baseball players are incredible. 🤷♂️
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Name to watch in the
#Whitesox
pen: Jordan Leasure
4S - 97 mph, 18" iVB from 5.8' release at AAA
Comp: Ryan Helsley minus 2 ticks
SL - 88 mph, 6" sweep
Comp: Adbert Alzolay plus a tick
Stuff+ will likely have the 4S near ++ & SL as +. All aboard the random RP hype train. 🚂
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18
284
Awesome vantage point today for Shōta Imanaga’s start.
I had 10 splitter whiffs + 6 fastball whiffs. 3 sweepers + 4 curves thrown.
Elevating 4S well. Split pretty invisible.
#TeamSplitter
Some pitches below. ~5.5’ release (4” below MLB average) with ~18-20” iVB plays.
#Cubs
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Dustin May's final line: 3 IP, H, 3 K. The hit was an infield single that made it halfway down 3B line.
Faced Machado, Hosmer, Myers, Reyes, Tatis Jr.--aka major league talent.
Some NSFW sliders within. FB sat 94-95 with life. ⚾️🔥👀
#Dodgers
#SpringTraining
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Bigge is nasty. Put him in leverage spots ASAP. 4 plus pitches from a Stuff+ perspective.
Four-seam (49%): 98 mph, 17-18" vertical, 5.9" release. Above-average velo and carry.
Cutter (34%): 88 mph, 5-6" sweep. More tight slider than cutter. 70% whiff at AAA is laughable.
Curve
Sources: Cubs are calling up Hunter Bigge, the 26-year-old relief pitching prospect.
The
@HarvardBaseball
alum has been dominant with a 0.77 ERA at Triple-A.
@MLBNetwork
@MLBPipeline
@670TheScore
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Jackson Ferris going to the
#Dodgers
. Here's his shape data from July 1 onward (~600 pitches):
What LAD might do to the 4S scares me a bit. Averaged 6.6' extension, 5.7' release, 1.5' rel side.
4S - 93 mph, 15-16" iVB, 9" arm-side, 55% zone, 21% swing-miss, .330 xwOBA, 52%
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Nerded out with
#Cubs
starter Hayden Wesneski today.
Pitchers who are comfortable chatting seam effects & intent-based command training are the best.
@WatchMarquee
Will thread some of his comments below. First on seam effects & how they help his slider...
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