Lance Brozdowski
@LanceBroz
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Player Development Analyst @WatchMarquee | Former Remote Vid Editor @DrivelineBB | NU + UMass
Chicago, USA
Joined August 2009
I got my hands on Roki Sasaki's 2024 NPB shape/velo data. Just dropped a video breaking it down. 👀. -Fastball velocity/shape regression.-Insanely distinct splitter.-Slider rework needed?.-Arm "injury" affecting mechanics?. Tease below, full vid within thread!
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Gerrit Cole's fingers literally stick to his hat here. Bro. 😂
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Ronald Acuna's reaction to Orlando Arcia trying to remove his hand from second base is priceless. 😂 #Braves
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I’m hearing the Rockies are paying $20m of Bauer’s 2021 salary.
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Wade Miley with an incredible, no-look catch of a cliff bar during an in-game interview. @WatchMarquee
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Livvy Dunne in 2025: “The splinker he added is actually his best pitch. To be able to kill that much vert above 95 is a game-changer. People who didn’t like his fastball shape in college just didn’t understand how much velo can help dead-zone shapes succeed.”.
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Gerrit Cole fastball, knuckle-curve, slider overlay. 🔥⚾️🤢👑. Without a doubt, one of the most incredible pitching performances I have ever watched. #Astros . 33(!) swinging strikes, 15 strikeouts. Wow. #ALDSGame2
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Walker Buehler fastball, cutter, curveball overlay. 🔥⚾️⚾️🔥⚾️ #Dodgers . 6 IP, H, 3 BB, 8 K outing for the 25-year-old. 👑
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Wacha threw the greatest changeup ever (exaggeration . maybe?) last season in a completely irrelevant game. -10" iVB.15" arm-side.82.5 mph.6.6' release .1,443 rpm. Literal screwball. Hurts my brain. Average CH from >6.3' release has 10" iVB. This is dropping 20" more!
Passan name-dropped Michael Wacha as a potential target for the Cubs during his segment on ESPN 1000 just now. Of course not an exciting name, but Wacha has a 3.27 ERA, 1.14 WHIP in 261.1 IP the last 2 seasons. Pair him up with Bieber and it's solid for the rotation.
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Catcher framing has always fascinated me from an analytical & eye-test standpoint. I’ve watched some video and have thoughts -- give me your reactions. First, Realmuto is INCREDIBLE at continuing pitch movement into zone. (1/6) #Phillies
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Sure, Roki Sasaki is cool, but can I interest you in Shunpeita Yamashita?. Averaged 96 mph with his fastball last season, 20" iVB with 10" arm-side (NPB ball). 6.6' extension 6.1' release. Curveball spin up to 2900, 87-88 mph split. Aesthetically pleasing power delivery >>>
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69% of the pitches Trevor Bauer threw tonight were out of the strike zone, a career high. #Reds.
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Dodgers still have Ryan Pepiot (has always been the #1 Dodger prospect arm, imo) and Bobby Miller after this deal. Their depth is truly unfair.
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Desi is a killer get for the Mets. Considered one of the best in the industry from a pitch design and seam orientation optimization standpoint. Have been lucky enough to have a few convos with him, learned something each time.
The Mets are hiring Desi Druschel as their assistant pitching coach, reports @martinonyc . Druschel has been with the Yankees’ MLB club since 2022
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Best top 3 starters in baseball:. 1A. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Bobby Miller . 1B. Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert. 2. Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez. Discuss….
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The #Yankees sacrificed 2 mph of velocity to pick up 6" of horizontal movement on Clay Holmes' slider between 2021 and 2022. How? They flipped him to a 2-seam SL grip. 💫⚾️. Swinging strike rate on the pitch went from 17% ➡️ 31%.
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If you’re the 29 other teams in MLB, stop reading this and call Perry Minasian. I beg of you. Do it before Detmers gets traded to the Dodgers and wins a Cy Young.
The Angels have optioned Reid Detmers to AAA.
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It’s come to my attention that Ragans’ last K here to Neto was 101 mph with 20” induced vertical break (iVB). Closest shape/velo he had last year was 98.9 mph with 20” iVB. He got up to 101 mph last year too but it was with just 15” iVB. Yeesh. 🤢.
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The first away game Shohei Ohtani will play as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the United States?. Wrigley Field. April 5th, 2024.
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Outstanding slow-motion look at Mike Clevinger's (@Mike_Anthony13) mechanics from the stretch. #Indians @PitchingNinja
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Pulled some hitting data from the minor leagues. The stats below are from the 4 levels between Class A and Triple-A. #MiLB . Here's xwOBA:.1. Yankees .358 💪.2. Mariners .358.3. Tigers .354 📈. 28. Braves .331 🤨.29. Nationals .328 .30. Royals .328 😬.
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Spencer Strider started doing the exercise in his viral hip mobility video during his Freshman year at @ClemsonBaseball. They're called hip "CARS.". Credits Clemson strength coach Rick Franzblau. On @PitchingNinja's "quadzilla" nickname: "I'm proud of my quads." #ForTheA
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Lot of buzz around Robbie Ray these last few days. His arm-action change is pretty substantial. Sky is the limit if his walks come down. Also noticed his momentum towards home plate is direct. Still a 3B side fall-off but more controlled. #DBacks
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Are we aware that Tarik Skubal has been the best pitcher in baseball since the All-Star break? #Tigers.
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I cloned @ChristianYelich so I could show you all the difference in his swing on high and low pitches.👍. Both hits are dingers mashed over 106 mph. 🔥. (Hey @PitchingNinja, can we get the hashtag #quarantineoverlays going?) ⚾️ #Brewers #MLB
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The Nationals tomorrow: . “We’re going to hit to SOFT and we’re going to hit it ON THE GROUND.”.
A new addition above the Red Sox batting cages, quote from Ted Williams: “We’re going to learn to do two things… we’re going to hit it hard and we’re going to hit it in the air.”
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Cam Smith (potentially) to the Astros for Kyle Tucker hurts…. But it will much less if the #Cubs have the green light to obliterate their previous record total value contract ($184m) come next year’s free agency. Tucker is a ~$300m player. Pay that man.
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Just got @DrivelineBB's first output of Stuff+ from #OpeningDay . Some standouts:. Cole Ragans 4S - 147 ➡️ 183.Tarik Skubal 4S - 112 ➡️ 170.Shane Bieber 4S - 87 ➡️ 120.Shane Bieber CH - 103 ➡️ 121.Brayan Bello SL - 148 ➡️ 168.Logan Webb SL - 171 ➡️ 194.Zac Gallen 4S - 124 ➡️ 90.
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Working on a video about splitters. Here are two different orientations I found that Shohei Ohtani uses. #Angels
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The most interesting hitter in baseball is still . Isaac Paredes. -5th percentile bat speed (slow bat).-5th pct swing length (long swing).-62nd pct squared-up rate (avg barrel accuracy).-80th pct ISO (hits tanks).-As many HR as Ronald Acuna Jr, Julio Rodriguez since '22.
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Here's the orientation & resulting spin change the #Yankees made this offseason to Luke Weaver's changeup. Swinging-strike rate rose from 16% to 25%. xSLG dropped 100+ points. Vertical separation from his fastball went from 8" to 14". FanGraphs Stuff+ from 83 to 107. 🔥
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The weirdest thing the #Rays did w/ Zach Eflin is adjust his changeup. He's now getting *more* backspin on it (10" iVB) than his sinker (5" iVB) & it's down 2 mph. Most CH have 5"+ *less* iVB than fastball. 7 swings, 6 whiffs today. I'd like to coin this a "reverse changeup."
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Fun interview with Pete Crow-Armstrong and Matt Mervis (@mmervis12) during today's game. Great dudes, even better prospects. #Cubs. PCA is scoping out CF. Mervis might eventually ask to move the right field corner in. 😉 @WatchMarquee
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Hayden Birdsong spikes his changeup? Super cool!. I was scratching my head on how he could possibly be getting negative vertical break at 88 mph from a 6.4' release without a splitter grip. Spiked middle finger has to play a part in kicking axis down at release? #Giants
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Aaron Ashby messing with Andrew Vaughn's timing. Three different motions on three consecutive pitches. He caused some noticeably uncomfortable swings in his inning of work today - 3 Ks. Nasty SL, high release point, FB seemed to work up in zone well. 📈 #Brewers
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"Bizarre training methods" have led the #Yankees to the following organizational ranks (combining the 4 levels between Class A and Triple-A):. #3 in 90th percentile Exit Velocity.#1 xwOBA .Bottom-10 Chase Rate. An objectively good organization at developing MLB hitters. A) MLB.
"There's no baseball being taught". A former Yankees prospect leaked some bizarre training methods being used in their minor league hitting approach. Yankee fans will not be happy. ▶️
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Yoshinobu Yamamoto data from yesterday #Dodgers:. 4S - 95.8 mph, 16.5" iVB, 8" run, 5.5' release.Two different splits, each thrown 2x. SPL 1 - 90.6 mph, .5" iVB, 11" run.SPL 2 - 90.8 mph, 4.3" iVB, 6.7" run.CU - 76.7 mph, -19 iVB, 14" sweep.CT - 92.5 mph, 8.4" iVB, 2.5" sweep.
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Think I found the Zach Eflin changeup tweak I've been looking for. and it's VERY subtle. Interesting they've pulled him off the seam. Dropping 4" more, running 2" more, velo down <1 mph, whiff rate 10% to 36%. #Rays tweaking CH orientations, a tale old as time.
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Let's take a look at MiLB organizational ranks for offensive xwOBA this season. Below includes the 4 levels between Class A and Triple-A:. 1. Yankees.2. Tigers.t3. Reds - Mariners .t4. Cubs - Padres . 28. Angels .t29. Athletics - Nationals .30. Royals.
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Nerds: "sweet, love splitters. vertical separation from a fastball is so important!". Old school: "pfft, good luck with those arm troubles". NPB pitchers: "I have 54 splitter grips". Sharp coaches: "where's the peer-reviewed research they cause arm troubles. DOESN'T EXIST".
Is the Splitter is Gonna Be This Year’s Sweeper? Some Cubs Are Giving It a Shot.
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Nice look at David Festa's mechanics. #Twins . 7 feet of extension on his fastball is greater than ~90% of MLB right-handers.
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Tomoyuki Sugano had a 1.67 ERA last year in 156.2 IP with a low strikeout rate. Zone-pounding, 4S-SL-CT-SPL-CU mix. Let's dig into his 2024 NPB shape and velocity data. A thread. 🧵
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BREAKING: Sources telling me Jarred Kelenic has been promoted to High-A Modesto (@ModestoNuts). Slashed .304/.394/.558 with the West Virginia Power. Doesn't turn 20 years old until July. 👀🔥 #Mariners.
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Brent Honeywell has averaged just 8% screwball usage in his career. In his last 2 outings with the Dodgers, he's thrown the pitch 22% and 41%. Usage changes are often some of the lowest-hanging fruit. It feels like the Dodgers always exploit this.
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Saw Seiya Suzuki walking into Wrigley Field this morning, fwiw. Took live BP in Arizona on Saturday. #Cubs.
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“Yeah, so his fastball has vert and velocity but his release is below average so it just crushed Ohtani in the postseason. The approach angle is too flat. “See how much knee flexion he lands in here? I think that’s the key, $18m AAV for Tanner Scott is worth it.” #Dodgers
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Tommy Nance might have the best pure "stuff" in the #Cubs bullpen. Only one other curve in MLB thrown >85 mph gets as much drop as he gets. No slider in MLB thrown >88mph gets as much drop as he gets. Both spinning ~2,900 rpm & he's throwing 60% fastballs? Mix change coming?🤔
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Everybody wants the next Spencer Strider. There probably isn't one this year. BUT if anybody has a shot, it's #Athletics Mason Miller. 4S: 100.0 mph, 16.5" ride, 6" arm-side, 144 Stuff+.CT: 95.7 mph, 7" lift, 3" cut/sweep, 116 Stuff+.SL: 86.5 mph, -3" drop, 9" sweep, 120 Stuff+.
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Joey Cantillo's vulcan changeup is filthy. #Guardians . The pitch has generated 49% swing-miss in MLB vs righties since his MLB debut (31% is avg). It's 78 mph with 14 mph velo separation from his fastball. Cantillo also has 7.5' of extension (99th percentile). Lots of funk.
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Garrett Crochet's new sinker is insane. We're in the honeymoon phase of the pitch, BUT FanGraphs Stuff+ of 126 (plus-plus), 3rd highest in MLB (min 100 IP). 23 pitches, -53° launch (lol) on 3 balls in play, 30% swinging-strike rate. Cool look at the spin below. #WhiteSox
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Jacob Webb since the Angels DFA'd him late last year (for some reason): 34 IP, 2.91 ERA, 2.87 FIP, just 1 HR allowed.
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Mike Trout adjusting to high and low pitches. #Angels. A fun addition #QuarantineOverlays. @PitchingNinja. Live baseball is back tonight, 1 am EST on ESPN. Get excited. (1/3)
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Yordan Alvarez's swing is GORGEOUS. First homer already in the books. 10/10 would recommend. #Astros 🔥💪📈
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George Klassen and Samuel Aldegheri for Carlos Estevez. Wow. #Angels . Klassen sits 97 mph, 2-plane fastball (14" iVB, 14" arm-side) from a near-average release height (5.7'). His premiere pitch is about as pure of a bullet slider as you can find. It's ~0" vertical and ~0".
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Here’s my in-depth breakdown on Shota Imanaga. #Cubs . It’s a pretty unique fastball, big carry, he just threw it down in the zone too much in NPB. Splitter is filthy. Some kind of cutter/gyro ball is where the most room for pitch design is. Fun signing!
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Nola has -13 catcher framing runs above average over his last 162 games. If I know anything about the Brewers, Austin Nola will be a plus framing catcher next season. Book it.
Free-agent catcher Austin Nola has signed a minor-league contract with the Milwaukee Brewers that includes an invite to spring training. He was previously non-tendered by the Padres.
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MLB teams have been using a pitching machine called Trajekt to replicate in-game shapes, which was previously impossible to do. Why is it revolutionary? Can it save hitting? Should fringe MiLB hitters even play in games anymore?!. Tease below, follow thread for full video.
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Cade Horton is working on a new changeup. He’s going with the Kevin Gausman-inspired split grip, rip it off the middle finger. #Cubs . Threw a side with it today. Spin down to ~1,600 rpm. Easy to dream on the upside with this added to this mix.
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Fascinating conversation w/ Owen Caissie in Myrtle Beach about his swing for @WatchMarquee. Below he talks about how the #Cubs stood him up in his stance to free up his lower half. Bet on Caissie to make adjustments at higher levels. Stud. 🔥. Full vid:
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This Triston Casas' quote from @enosarris's piece on the bat speed rollout is really good. I hadn't thought about the stress implications of training hitters from a speed-of-movement perspective. Rib/Obliques are the new UCLs for hitters?! I hope not. 😬
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Walker Buehler fastball-curveball overlay, spin differences, home-plate view. Enjoy! #Dodgers 🔥⚾️👌
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Let's talk changeups. ⚾️. Data suggests vertical mvmt separation from a fastball makes elite CHs MORE than velo separation. (h/t @LanginTots13). With that in mind, Patrick Sandoval becomes a tough one to explain. But I have a theory! 💡. Tease below. Full:
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One pitch apart, but this is an unfair sequence from Cole Ragans to Jordan Westburg. 95-mph cutter.88-mph changeup. Stop it. #Royals
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Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s splitter is filthy. 90 mph, 2” iVB, 10-12” arm-side, ~1500 rpm, 48% whiff in the WBC. Had ~15” arm-side, 38% whiff in NPB. Dropping 14-15” more than his 4S, only ~5 mph slower. Money combo for whiffs. WBC plot below showing large variance in the shape,
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Ok, I’ll play along. I’d guess this is either Jesus Luzardo or Luis Castillo. (Galaxy brain: what if it’s Sandy Alcantara 👀).
"The Cubs are working on a big deal for a starting pitcher right now.". Could more moves be on the horizon 👀
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Ohtani 2B in first Wrigley AB.Bobby Miller pulled after 5 ER in 1.2 IP.@FoolishBB and I met. These things are all connected.
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Jeremiah Estrada has been stellar this year. He's adjusted his fastball (more cut) & slider (harder), but my favorite tweak? His splitter. He told me he learned the grip by watching videos of Eric Gagne and added his own subtle tweaks. It's wacky & nasty. #Padres
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Edwin Rios just took Drew Smyly 400+ ft deep to CF, easy barrel. Left-left. Might be a dude. #Cubs.
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Me: “That’s what I’m keying in on, do you get balls above that 104 mph area at the right launch angles.”. Harold Reynolds: “It drives me crazy to hear that…” 😂. Fighting the good fight. Bat speed matters. A lot. @MLBNetwork’s Draft Combine coverage was a blast.
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Slam dunk here. DJ is an 80-grade dude, gonna miss him. If Nats can get him in zone, could look bad long term. Tracking more as RP. Made’s 90th EV has never inspired me + Cubs couldn’t get him to lift the ball. I never really understood the hype there from certain list-makers.
SOURCE: I'm hearing the Cubs are sending prospects DJ Herz and and Kevin Made for Jeimer Candelario.
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Fun moment on a broadcast when you can spot some seam effects (direction of the ball’s spin changing in flight) in a strikeout replay. 👀 #Cubs #Guardians
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Josh Hader has never allowed two, two-strike home runs in any appearance of his career. #Brewers.
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Kris Bryant adjusting to up/in and low/away pitches. @SeanMarshall45 killed it breaking this down on @WatchMarquee. 👑⚾️ #Cubs
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Joe Ryan's new split-changeup is pretty filthy. #Twins. Old changeup was only separating itself from his four-seam by 5-6". New split-change is all the way down to 1,300 RPM, averaging 10" of separation from his four-seam, 0-2" iVB. Whiff-maker. @DrivelineBB. Here are a few.
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Bo Bichette's swing on his long, two-strike homer. Notice how hard he hits this ball without his standard leg kick. 👀💪🔥
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Here's presumably a look at the moment Andy Green told Chris Paddack through Eric Hosmer, per @sdutKevinAcee, he officially made the @Padres. Starting Sunday against the Giants at Petco Park. What a story, what a player.
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Garrett Crochet looks filthy. There's a cutter in there with the four-seams. It'll be something like:. 4S: 98 mph, 16" vertical, 8" horizontal.CT: 94 mph, 9" vrt, 1" hrz. And a sweeper with 12"+ sweep at 84 mph? Yes. 🔥. 3 plus or better pitches. #WhiteSox.
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Bucket List: Throw a few pitches off the Wrigley Field mound ✅. Still have some juice, but man do I have ZERO layback (what happened?! 😭). Don’t get old, kids. No, the Trackman wasn’t turned on. 🥲
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FERNANDO TATIS JR. HOME RUN #Padres #SpringTraining . Line drive, open-face swing, hustle out of the box. 😍😍😍
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Michael Kopech's release point was down 3-4" today relative to the average in his prior 3 starts. He was able to maintain fastball shape (~17.5" iVB), pick up 1 mph of velo, and add 1" of arm-side run. So yeah. That's a pretty good way to make your fastball better. #WhiteSox 📈.
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It looks like Pete Fairbanks is working on a splitter. and it's beyond filthy. #Rays. He's separating it from his four-seam by about 11" (of induced vertical break), but it's only ~4 mph slower, elite CH/SPL territory. Here's the only pair we have on video right now:
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Cubs are aggressive with fastball usage. Astros said, "lol stop that.". Neris cut his fastball from 50% to 40% vs lefties, from 48% to 31% vs righties, and double his sinker usage with HOU. FIP vs lefties went from 4.42 w/ CHC to 2.09 w/ HOU. But wait! There's more. .
Hector Neris with the . Cubs: 23.5 K%, 13.5 BB%.Astros: 25.9 K%, 3.7 BB%.
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Cecconi has a two-plane fastball that got pounded and 3 average secondaries that underperformed their stuff grade. Break the slider into 2? Back off the tailing four-seam?. Rays targeted Cecconi at last year’s deadline too. A pair of sharp teams wanting him has me intrigued.
Full trade, per ESPN sources:. Arizona acquires: 1B Josh Naylor. Cleveland acquires: RHP Slade Cecconi and a competitive balance Round B draft pick.
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#OpeningDay pitcher shape metrics of note. Quick thoughts on Shane McClanahan, Logan Webb, Hunter Harvey, Reynaldo López, Pablo López, & Luis Castillo.
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#Mariners continue to be fascinating developmentally. -2nd lowest swing rate.-Lowest chase rate.-2nd highest xwOBA.-Highest wOBA. On the pitching side, they were #1 slider usage, #1 sinker usage, lowest 4S, lowest release.
Pulled some hitting data from the minor leagues. The stats below are from the 4 levels between Class A and Triple-A. #MiLB . Here's xwOBA:.1. Yankees .358 💪.2. Mariners .358.3. Tigers .354 📈. 28. Braves .331 🤨.29. Nationals .328 .30. Royals .328 😬.
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