Jon Anderson
@JonPgh
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Christian :: Fantasy Baseball :: MLB Projections & Automation :: “MLB Data Warehouse” Substack and Podcast :: https://t.co/fvZTgtPnkg
Joined April 2009
Pinned tweet for the purposes of pointing people to my Substack. I run a fantasy baseball focused newsletter. There's a ton of stuff going on there. Some of the highlights. - MLB Projections (season long and daily).- Tableau Dashboards.- Automated reports and leaderboards.-
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Me at shortstop on my 0-9 men’s league team after my wife tells me I’ve lost a step.
Check this shit out motherfucker [I slide one foot out from under me, spin midair, throw the ball 20ft wide of 1st base & fall on my ass]
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The Rays will be like “Hey Joe Boyle, try to throw the ball in that little rectangle” and the guy will win the Cy Young.
Tampa Bay will be receiving right-handers Joe Boyle and Jacob Watters, outfielder Will Simpson as well as a compensation A round draft pick from the A's, sources tell ESPN. Jeffrey Springs and one other player are headed from Tampa to the A's.
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WHIP is an old stat. It's fine for what it is, but there are flaws. The biggest issue is that it penalizes singles the same as it penalizes homers. So I made WALKS PLUS TOTAL BASES PER INNING PITCHED (WTBIP). This multiples doubles by two, triples by three, and homers by four -
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Worst Luck Hitters, Last 2 Weeks.expected wOBA vs. actual wOBA. 1) Bobby Witt Jr. 399 expected, .220 actual. 2) Bryce Harper. 402 expected, .278 actual. 3) Pavin Smith. 378 expected, .283 actual. 4) Trea Turner. 374 expected, .280 actual. 5) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 400.
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Runs Scored Last 3 Weeks. 114: MIN.113: .112: .111: .110: .109: .108: .107: .106: .105: .104: PHI.103: .102: .101: .100: .99: .98: .97: .96: LAD, BAL .95: .94: .93: BOS.92: MIL.91: NYY.90: NYM.89: KC, DET.88: ATL, ARI.87: CIN.86: CLE.85: .84: .83: SD.82: HOU.81: .80: .79: .78:.
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I see this and immediately assume Pham is currently fist fighting the entire 25 man roster
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Hitters with contact rates above 80% (elite) and barrel rates above 10% (very good). - George Springer.- Wander Franco.- Yandy Diaz.- Masataka Yoshida.- Ketel Marte.- Max Kepler.
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Hyped Prospects Spring K%. Wyatt Langford: 25%.Evan Cater: 16%.Jackson Chourio: 22%.Jackson Holliday: 33%.Kyle Manzardo: 29%.Coby Mayo: 19%.Junior Caminero: 15%.Dylan Crews: 32%.Jackson Merrill: 8.5%.
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Father in law asked me what Paul Skenes record is and I’m like bro I can tell you 125 stats about Skenes in full detail but I do not know what his record is.
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Spring ERAs. Jared Jones: 0.00.Ranger Suarez: 0.00.Ronel Blanco: 0.00.Martin Perez: 0.60.Miles Mikolas: 2.14.Kyle Freeland: 2.37. Logan Webb: 10.98.Hunter Greene: 7.20.Freddy Peralta: 7.20.Logan Gilbert: 6.75.Corbin Burnes: 6.75.Cole Ragans: 6.75. Interpret this with the below
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The Bible verse on Paul Skenes' glove, for the millions of people wondering. 2 Timothy 1:7.For God has not given us a spirit of timidity, but of power and love and discipline.
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Isaac Paredes Expected Home Run by Park, 2024. Tampa Bay: 21.Wrigley Field: 13.Minutemid Park: 26.
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How I personally rank the top 20 SPs right now. 1. Tarik Skubal.2. Paul Skenes.3. Zack Wheeler.4. Logan Gilbert.5. Jacob deGrom.6. Blake Snell.7. Cole Ragans.8. Garrett Crochet.9. Corbin Burnes.10. Yoshinobu Yamamoto.11. Michael King.12. George Kirby.13. Shane McClanahan.14.
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2024 Projected Rotation Collective Stuff+. 120: LAD.119:.117:.116:.115:.114: MIA, SEA.113:.112:.111: NYY, SD, CIN.110:.109: TOR, BOS.108: HOU.107: .106: .105: BAL.104: .103: CWS, ATL.102: MIL, MIN.101: PHI, TB.100: CLE, ARI.99: OAK.98:.97:.96:.95:.94:.93: STL.92:.91:.90: DET.89:.
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The Cubs are looking extremely good, and I doubt they're done adding on.
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My Updated Top 50 SPs, With Tiers. 1. Strider.~~~~~~.2. Cole.3. Wheeler.4. Burnes⬆️.5. Gausman⬇️.6. Castillo.7. Lopez.~~~~~~.8. Gallen.9. Glasnow.~~~~~~.10. Kirby.11. Peralta ⬆️.12. Webb.13. Valdez⬇️.14. Fried.~~~~~~.15. Rodriguez.16. Yamamoto⬆️.17. Gilbert.18. Skubal.~~~~~~.19.
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Yesterday's Slowest Pitches. Ernie Clement Knuckleball: 48.5mph.Ernie Clement Knuckleball: 53.3mph.Ernie Clement Knuckleball: 53.8mph.Ernie Clement Knuckleball: 54.8mph.Ernie Clement Knuckleball: 55.9mph.Ernie Clement Other: 62.2mph.Ernie Clement Other: 65.5mph.
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Projected OPS for Projected 2024 Lineups. 1. LAD .829.2. ATL .828.~~~~~~~~~.3. HOU .793.4. NYY .784.5. LAA .773.6. PHI .772.7. BOS .770.~~~~~~~~~.8. ARI .765.9. COL .760.10. SD .759.11. CIN .755.12. MIN .755.13. BAL .754.14. STL .752.~~~~~~~~~.15. NYM .747.16. SF .747.17. PIT.
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3 homers, 10 rbi, 2 steals. That’s an excellent two months for Luis Arraez
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New Top 25 SPs. 1. Strider.~~~~.2. Cole.~~~~.3. Wheeler.4. Burnes.5. Castillo.6. Lopez.~~~~.7. Gallen.8. Glasnow.9. Kirby.10. Peralta.11. Webb.12. Valdez.13. Fried.~~~~.14. Yamamoto.15. Tarik Skubal.16. G Rodriguez.17. Cole Ragans.18. Logan Gilbert.19. Aaron Nola.20. Joe Ryan.
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Highest xwOBA against Stuff+ above 125. Yoshida .432.Acuna Jr. 427.Guerrero Jr. 418.Chapman .406.J Ramirez .391.Arozarena .372.Mountcastle .372.Y Diaz .362.Goldschmidt .362.Y Grandal .362.S Perez .361.Torres .360.Bichette .157.Friedl .357.Alonso .357.
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This is a bad rotation.
Current New York Mets rotation:. 1. Sean Manaea .2. Kodai Senga .3. David Petetson.4. Frankie Montas .5. Clay Holmes . How do we feel?
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Average distance traveled of a barrel. 2019: 390 feet.2021: 386 feet.2022: 383 feet.2023: 385 feet.2024: 381 feet.
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Increased Velo Alert!.Jared Jones is averaging 100.3mph on his FF today. His season average on the pitch is 97.2mph.
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FanGraphs Stuff+ Leaders - 2024.SPs only. 1. Jared Jones 145.2. Hunter Greene 139.3. Nick Pivetta 126.4. Jordan Hicks 125.5. Grayson Rodriguez 122.6. Cristian Javier 121.7. Garrett Crochet 121.8. Ryan Pepriot 120.9. Corbin Burnes 118.10. Tarik Skubal 117.11. Keaton Winn 117.12.
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Morel for Paredes feels like the real life version of a smart fantasy baseball player taking advantage of a dumber one (the Rays are the smart one).
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Imagine your wife went into labor right before a Coors series.
Manny Machado placed on paternity list.
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Notable xBA-BA under-performers. Josh Naylor. 212 actual, .290 expected. Alek Thomas. 193 actual, .256 expected. Luis Garcia. 222 actual, .279 expected. Ryan Mountcastle. 244 actual, .299 expected. Ke'Bryan Hayes. 231 actual, .282 expected. Vinnie Pasquantino. 279 actual, .325.
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Average Hitter Bat Speed by Count. 3-0: 74.4.3-1: 72.2.2-0: 71.7.2-1: 70.9.1-0: 70.8.3-2: 70.1.1-1: 70.0.0-0: 69.6.0-1: 69.0.2-2: 68.9.1-2: 68.1.0-2: 67.4.
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Number of Relievers with 120+ Stuff. 5: Padres.3: Twins, Pirates, Astros, Dodgers.2: Brewers, Yankees, Mets, Braves, Red Sox, Rays, Guardians.1: Cardinals, Giants, Cubs, Angeles, Rockies, Phillies, Orioles, Marlins.0: Tigers, Nationals, Reds, Athletics, Royals, Blue Jays,
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@MikeDro_ “She’s worked with the Giants org for almost ten years”.^almost entirely in “health and wellness”. “has a master’s degree in sports management”.^ so do hundreds of thousands of other people, the degree is meaningless. “and has been a big league coach since 2020”.^a first base.
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New Juan Soto projection with Mets. - 102 R.- 40 HR.- 97 RBI.- 10 SB.- .289 AVG.- 425 OBP.
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Hard Hit Balls Leaders. Jake Cronenworth: 17 Hard Hits (55% HH%).Bobby Witt Jr.: 16 Hard Hits (80% HH%).Mookie Betts: 16 Hard Hits (55% HH%).Jung Hoo Lee: 15 Hard Hits (58% HH%).Shohei Ohtani: 14 Hard Hits (48% HH%).Matt Chapman: 14 Hard Hits (64% HH%).Juan Soto: 14 Hard Hits.
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Remember that Jacob deGrom has posted a 43.2% K% and 3.4% BB% in the Majors with a 2.02 ERA and a 0.65 WHIP since 2021.
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Yamamoto owners rolling over and checking their phones this morning
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Pitchers Targets. Pitchers Who:.- Are projected to be in the rotation.- Had 4 or more pitches above a 100 Stuff+ last year. Listed Alphabetically:.A.J. Puk.Blake Snell.Bobby Miller.Bryan Woo.Corbin Burnes.DL Hall.Eury Perez.George Kirby.Grayson Rodriguez.Jesus Luzardo.Jose.
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Royce Lewis has now homered in 33% of his games since 2023 (including postseason).
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Top 100 SPs by ADP. I've highlighted my price-considered targets in green and my fades in red
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Imagine if other careers were like this. Like you’re so freaking good at accounting but you’re only 23 so you get like 5 weeks extra forced paid vacation.
Report: Marlins considering 'pausing' Eury Pérez
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Tarik Skubal season debut. - 83 pitches.- 6 strikes.- 0 walks.- 20 whiffs.- 24.1% SwStr%. Cy Young contender in the making.
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@ComicDaveSmith @LauraLoomer @zerohedge I like how they put you in front of the Palestine flag as if your argument is just that you support Palestine haha.
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Opening Day Prediction Contest.Win $100 of my Money 💰. To enter:.- Follow my account.- Like & retweet this tweet.- Reply with a player you think will hit two homers on Opening Day (3/28/2024). If your predicted player hits two homers, you win. Terms:.- Submissions due 3/28/2024.
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My Favorite Price-Considered Safety & Upside Pick at Each Position.inside the top 250 ADP. Catcher.Safety: Cal Raleigh (ADP 135).Upside: Logan O'Hoppe (ADP 157) . First Base.Safety: Vlad Guerrero Jr. (ADP 30).Upside: Christian Encarnacion-Strand (ADP 159). Second Base.Safety:.
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For anybody interested in Python + MLB Savant stuff, I started making this little intro course last year. Never finished - but it's still out there. I've had quite a few people talk about their interest in this stuff, so this will help you if that's you!.
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Most pitches thrown without allowing a barrel. Starting Pitchers in bold. 1. Dauri Moreta's Slider: 404 pitches.2. Kodai Senga's Forkball: 374 pitches.3. Justin Verlander's Slider: 368 pitches.4. Gregory Santos' Slider: 360 pitches.5. Tyler Rogers' Sinker: 338 pitches.6. Julian.
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Best rotation in baseball and it’s not close.
Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert, Miller, Woo is absolutely ridiculous and we don’t talk about it enough.
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Tarik Skubal today. - 41 pitches.- 6 strikeouts.- 0 walks.- 14 whiffs (34.1% SwStr%).- 25 strikes (61.0% SwStr%). Spring Training or not that's really impressive
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If Schanuel suddenly adds 70% to his bat speed WATCH OUT.
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Julio Rodriguez is the only Major League player surnamed Rodriguez to have a plate appearance this year. That stuns me.
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Unluckiest Hitters - Last 3 Weeks.Using xwOBA - wOBA. Marcus Semien. 182 wOBA, .286 xwOBA. Paul Goldschmidt. 301 wOBA, .375 xwOBA. Anthony Volpe. 224 wOBA, .285 xwOBA. Marcell Ozuna. 300 wOBA, .358 xwOBA. Tommy Pham. 283 wOBA, .336 xwOBA. Ozzie Albies. 333 wOBA, .364 xwOBA.
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My Tiered Top 31 RPs.for non-holds leagues. 1. Hader.2. Williams.3. E Diaz.~~~~~~~.4. Clase.5. Doval.6. Duran.7. Iglesias.8. Bednar.9. Romano.~~~~~~~.10. A Diaz.11. Sewald.12. Munoz.~~~~~~~.13. Fairbanks.14. Helsley.15. Phillips.16. Scott.17. Holmes.18. Jansen.19. Kimbrel.20.
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Second Half Bad Luck Hitters. 1. Fernando Tatis Jr. 222 wOBA, .362 xwOBA. 2. Willy Adames. 245 wOBA, .312 xwOBA. 3. Brandon Nimmo. 258 wOBA, .320 xwOBA. 4. Will Brennan. 230 wOBA, .292 xwOBA. 5. Salvador Perez. 284 wOBA, .342 xwOBA. 6. Spencer Torkelson. 306 wOBA, .360 xwOBA. 7.
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My Rookie SP Ranks for the Rest of the Year. 1. Jared Jones.2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto.3. Shota Imanaga.4. Paul Skenes.5. Christian Scott.6. Keaton Winn.7. Kyle Harrison.8. Gavin Stone.9. Cade Povich.10. Cade Horton.11. Drew Thorpe.12. Jack Leiter.13. Jordan Wicks.14. Robert Gasser.
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The fact that Giancarlo Stanton swings the bat THAT much harder than the entire rest of the league and is not a clear first ballot hall of famer is so disappointing. Guy could have been an absolute legend. On the other hand, if Statcast didn’t exist almost nobody would know who.
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Highest Implied JA Model Odds of a Homer Today. 1. Ohtani 26.7%.2. Schwarber 26.7%.3. Aaron Judge 25.2%.4. Jake Burger 24.4%.5. Teoscar Hernandez 23.7%.6. Danny Jansen 22.9%.7. Marcell Ozuna 22.1%.8. Christian Walker 22.1%.9. Matt Olson 22.1%.10. Davis Schneider 21.3%. If all ten.
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Jack Suwinski.21-23: 32 K%.2024: 17% K%. Christopher Morel.21-23: 32% K%.2024: 18% K%. Brett Baty.2023: 27% K%.2024: 19% K%.
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Wyatt Langford since coming off the IL. 299/.348/.495. 843 OPS.3 HR.9% Brl%.15.7% K%.6.1% BB%. 323 xwOBA
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not to beat a dead horse, but. ~~~~~~~~~~~.Elly De La Cruz .~~~~~~~~~~~.54 PA .18 Strikeouts .30 Balls in Play .22 Ground Balls.2 Fly Balls .1 Popup.2 Barrels.
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No offense meant to big Ross but if somebody offers you Skubal for Sasaki in dynasty - you take it lol.
My top 10 SP for dynasty!. 1. Paul Skenes, 22. PIT.2. Roki Sasaki, 23, LAD.3. Spencer Strider, 26, ATL📸.4. Tarik Skubal, 28, DET.5. Garrett Crochet, 25, BOS.6. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 26, LAD.7. Logan Gilbert, 27, SEA.8. Cole Ragans, 27, KCR.9. Hunter Greene, 25, CIN.10. George
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My Top 20 SPs for 2024 with Tiers. 1. Strider.~~~~~~.2. Cole.3. Wheeler.4. Castillo.5. Gausman.6. Burnes.7. Lopez.~~~~~~.8. Gallen.9. Kirby.10. Valdez.11. Webb.12. Glasnow.~~~~~~.13. Fried.14. Nola.15. E Perez.16. Gilbert.17. Peralta.~~~~~~.18. G Rodriguez.19. Ryan.20. Skubal.
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Yeah I started Jesus Luzardo, Reese Olson, and Blake Snell last night. But at least none of them are having elbow surgery today.
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Projected PA/HR Leaders - Catchers. 1. Logan O'Hoppe 17.3.2. Danny Jansen 18.1.3. Yainer Diaz 19.1.4. Cal Raleigh 19.9.5. Francisco Alvarez 20.3.6. Sean Murphy 23.7.7. Gary Sanchez 23.8.8. Mitch Garver 23.8.9. Rene Pinto 24.5.10. William Contreras 24.7.
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Elly De La Cruz skill projections in my model. ➡️ 34.3% K%.➡️ 6.3% BB%.➡️ 10.8% Brl%.➡️ 23.2% SB Att%. Most similar to Jo Adell, Adalberto Mondesi, & Jose Siri.
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Worst OPS of May. 1. Burger .160.2. Baez .197.3. T Anderson .222.4. J Turner .229.5. Mullins II .245.6. Harris II .265.7. K Hayes .290.8. K Ruiz .294.9. Kirilloff .303.10. Grissom .310.11. Goldschmidt .312.12. Beck .314.13. Butler .334.14. Springer .343.15. Nido .366.
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Highest Stuff+ among relievers not currently listed as a closer. Jonathan Loaisiga NYY.Matt Brash SEA.Ben Joyce LAA.Steven Wilson SD.Bryan Abreu HOU.Jeff Hoffman PHI.Jose Soriano LAA.Joe Kelly LAD.Gregory Soto PHI.Trevor Megill MIL.Miguel Castro ARI.
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Top 100 SPs (by ADP).(Last 4 NFBC Drafts, since Saturday). 1. Spencer Strider.2. Gerrit Cole.3. Corbin Burnes.4. Zack Wheeler.5. Kevin Gausman.6. Luis Castillo.7. George Kirby.8. Pablo Lopez.9. Tyler Glasnow.10. Zac Gallen.11. Yoshinobu Yamamoto.12. Tarik Skubal.13. Aaron Nola.
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Contact Rate leaders among hitters with at least an 8% barrel rate. 1. Vinnie Pasquantino 85%.2. Mookie Betts 84%.3. Nolan Arenado 81%.4. Will Smith 81%.5. Juan Soto 81%.6. Freddie Freeman 81%.7. Josh Naylor 81%.8. Kyle Tucker 80%.9. Justin Turner 80%.10. Daniel Vogelbach 80%.
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Francisco Lindor has been quite unlucky of late. Last 53 PAs:.- 19.4% Brl%.- 20.8% K%.- 11.3% BB%.- .386 xwOBA.- 52.8% Hard Hit%. And yet, just a .170/.264/.447 slash line. Being crushed by a .125 BABIP.
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Hitter xwOBA vs. Actual wOBA.last 3 weeks. 5 Unluckiest:.1. Austin Riley.2. Fernando Tatis Jr. 3. Lars Nootbaar.4. Corey Seager.5. Vinnie Pasquantino. 5 Luckiest:.1. Josh Smith.2. Wilyer Abreu.3. Ryan Jeffers.4. Alec Bohm.5. Trea Turner
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I have this theory with Elly De La Cruz. Everybody says his upside is a 30-homer, 50-steal season. But if he hits 30 homers, that would mean he significantly lowers his GB%. And there's no way his K% comes in below 26% or so. So if he's hitting 30 homers, he's hitting a lot of.
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The 25-25-.25 List. Players that can feasibly go:.- 25+ homers.- 25+ steals.- .250+ batting average. Obvious:.Ronald Acuna, Julio Rodriguez, Corbin Carroll, Fernando Tatis, Jose Ramirez, Bobby Witt Jr., Trea Turner, Francisco Lindor, Kyle Tucker, Michael Harris II. Less Obvious:.
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Rest of Season Catcher Ranks. Tier 1.1. Adley Rutschman.2. William Contreras.3. Will Smith.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.Tier 2.4. Francisco Alvarez.5. Salvador Perez.6. Logan O'Hoppe.7. Cal Raleigh.8. Yainer Diaz.9. Willson Contreras.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.Tier 3.10. J.T. Realmuto.12. Shea.
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A.J. Puk had eight more strikeouts in 5.1 innings yesterday. His spring line:.56 batters faced.41% K%.7% BB%.0 homers allowed.
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Top 25 MLB Prospects from 10 Years Ago. 1. Byron Buxton.2. Xander Bogaerts.3. Oscar Taveras (RIP for real, tragic).4. Miguel Sano.5. Archie Bradley.6. Taijuan Walker.7. Javier Baez.8. Carlos Correa.9. Kris Bryant.10. Francisco Lindor.11. Noah Syndergaard.12. Addison Russell.13.
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Batting Average Leaders - June.40 PA minimum. 1. Steven Kwan .489.2. Rowdy Tellez .447.3. Carlos Correa .418.4. Aaron Judge .404.5. Jesse Winker .400.6. Amed Rosario .378.7. Ceddanne Rafaela .377.8. Josh Smith .370.9. Michael Busch .366.10. Yordan Alvarez .365.
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The difference between Wyatt Langford and other struggling rookies. - 19% K%.- 40% GB%. The two biggest problems you typically see with rookie hitters is whiffs and driving balls into the ground, not the case with Langford. The XBH should start coming soon.
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Least Lucky SPs so Far.wOBA vs. xwOBA. 1. Hunter Greene. 331 wOBA, .236 xwOBA. 2. Ryan Feltner. 360 wOBA, .268 xwOBA. 3. Kyle Freeland. 470 wOBA, .387 xwOBA. 4. Kyle Hendricks. 476 wOBA, .399 xwOBA. 5. Alex Wood. 448 wOBA, .375 xwOBA. 6. Hunter Brown. 457 wOBA, .387 xwOBA. 7.
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The most amazing thing about Ohtani this year might be that he's 13th in the league in plate appearances and second in the league in starts made.
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