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Defender of 9 wokey bins | Wikipedian 🏳️🌈
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In 2007, in order to help the transfer to democracy, the Bhutanese monarchy held a mock election across the country, with a Yellow, Red, Blue and Green party
The Yellow party swept both the first and second round, winning in all but 1 of the 47 constituencies
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This unfortunately aged well
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Before anyone asks if Yellow is just Bhutan's favourite colour, each "party" had a "manifesto":
- Yellow stressed traditional values
- Red stressed industry
- Blue stressed fairness
- Green stressed the environment
Druk is the name for the national dragon symbol (below)
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> 10+yrs in power
> Almost win majority in 2021
> Form cooperation agreement with a nationalist party
> Long time popular leader stands down
> Win leadership election 52/48
> Suffer corruption scandal
> Cooperation agreement breaks down in 2024
> Be Vaughan Gething
Pic unrelated
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@POTUS
I think I speak for all Brits when I say us over the pond absolutely adore your premiership. We wish our new PM could be 1% the leader you have been for America. You have saved democracy, lives, and you're entire nation from the grasps of Trump. Thank you Mr. Biden ❤️
🇬🇧🤝🇲🇾
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I got ChatGPT to create a 10 party system for the UK, and to generate the results of an election with said parties
Here is a table of the parties, and the election results, mapped
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What if states assigned their electors proportionally, 2016 edition
The result would have seen a complete tie between Trump & Clinton, and 3 non-major candidates would also have got electors. With a republican-controlled Congress, it is likely Trump would've got elected
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What is it with non-Brits and seemingly only seeing Stats 4 Lefties projections
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Very much off topic, but it always throws me off whenever Americans talk about swing
Like it's not a +14pt swing, it's 7.6pt
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I have nothing to do post election, so here's the runners up by seat in the 2024 UK GE
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What if the polls just don't narrow
Labour lead at 27 points in latest YouGov poll for The Times
CON 20 (=)
LAB 47 (+1)
LIB DEM 9 (+2)
REF UK 13 (-1)
GRN 7 (=)
Fieldwork 6 - 7 March
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Portugal update
uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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I asked ChatGPT for the details of a hypothetical presidential election in the UK, here are the results mapped:
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@RichardLWood_
@BritainElects
Here's a quick projection using party list PR with a 3% threshold:
LAB 40.8% - 275
CON 31.6% - 213
LDM 10.2% - 67
GRN 5.5% - 37
RFM 4.8% - 32
SNP 3.8% - 26
Total: 650
In reality there would probably be some NI seats & ones for Plaid Cymru, but this gives a rough picture 😄
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2023 European politics predictions:
🇨🇿 Babiš/Nerudová 2nd round, Nerudová wins
🇪🇪 Current government maintains majority
🇫🇮 KOK-led government (GroKo + Kesk)
🇪🇸 Somehow Sanchez stays in power
🇹🇷 Erdoğan loses
🇬🇷 SYRIZA-led government
🇧🇬 More chaos, no new parties enter parliament
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If you actually waited 1 day you would realise they are writing them one by one. Swinney's came out 10mins again
It's not bias
I never realised
@TheGreenParty
didn’t have Leaders!
@carla_denyer
and
@AdrianRamsay
must be mere figments of my strange imagination.
Complaint submitted to BBC.
>>
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This is genuinely an incredible model what tf do u mean "based on YouGov favourability poll" this is that poll how on earth do you get that result what
🚨 BREAKING: Jeremy Corbyn will reportedly confirm today that he'll run as an independent in Islington North.
Islington North is now Independent GAIN in my model.
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@TheGreenParty
@CarolineLucas
Short-termism is a major reason why we're in this crisis. The solution we need should include help now, and help 10 years down the line
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I have too much time at the moment, so may I present the 1953 Norwegian election
This was the second-last time Ap won an outright majority in the Storting. It was also the first time in Norway's history that Ap had come first in every constituency
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ALBA going into the next Scottish election with 20 MSPs and getting 0.1% of the vote
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Just realised one of my maps got used in a Romanian student's dissertation??
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This might be a hot take, but the magic money tree attack by Labour is quite good
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@adriaeln
@LinkofSunshine
Yeah they're literally doing that atm with this election, like saying "oh yeah I found the point it worked but you come up with a proposal" like just bad faith filibustering to keep their revision in place
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in the next installation of formerly tiny centrist party randomly surging in slovenia
Slovenia, Ninamedia poll:
European Parliament election
SDS-EPP: 27% (+1)
GS-RE: 18% (n.a.)
Vesna-G/EFA: 14% (new)
SD-S&D: 12% (-7)
NSi-EPP: 8% (-3)
L-LEFT: 6%
SLS-EPP: 4%
ZS-*: 4% (+2)
Resnica-*: 3% (new)
DeSUS/DD-RE: 3% (n.a.)
NOT-*: 2% (new)
+/- vs. 2019 election
Fieldwork:
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What if the 5 Star Movement allied with the Centre-Left coalition in the 2022 Italian General Election?
Meloni's Centre-Right coalition would've lost its majority in both the Senate and the Chamber
Results breakdown below
(Base map credit -
@_JeanLannes
)
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2023 Ecuadorian Presidential election:
With over 90% of the results counted, the establishment leftist Luisa González and the businessman Daniel Noboa will face off in the 2nd round in October
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The opposite of a shout out to whatever these EU fptp constituencies were
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France's election yesterday had a worse proportionality score than the 2019 general election - drawing comparisons with the French system to Proportional Representation is just plain wrong
89 parliamentary seats for Le Pen’s far right in France. Should the UK introduce proportional representation, similar happening here becomes far likelier – people may regard it as a price worth paying, but PR doesn’t guarantee a progressive majority.
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@Nassreddin2002
They are gaining, just in their target seats. Unlike Swinson, Davey is not running a national campaign and is putting all efforts into their top 30-40 seats. This isn't very likely to be shown in opinion polls
The Lib Dems are also practically invisible to the average voter
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If any left of centre party in Europe won an election with ~35% of the vote people would be hailing it as a great victory
Cant wait for opinion articles in European newspapers on how the left should copy Keir Starmer because he won a landslide majority without realising their own countries’ PR elections don’t work like that.
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It isn't lol
The youth abandoning the right is a largely Tory phenomenon.
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After quite a wait for the official results, here are the results of the 2024 Bulgarian parliamentary election, mapped
After years of chaos, it seems like the primary anti-corruption force (PPDB) has collapsed and it paves the way for a GERB & DPS-led government
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It's insane how a centrist populist personality cult centred around a criminal with no policy other than vengeance might actually win the proportional list vote in Korea
ROK, Realmeter poll:
Proportional list vote
PFP (Conservative): 30% (-1)
KIP (Liberal): 28% (+1)
DAK (Liberal|Centre-left|Left): 20% (+2)
NFP (Centre): 5% (+1)
+/- vs. 14-15 March 2024
Fieldwork: 21-22 March 2024
Sample size: 1,004
➤
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@HeerJeet
@PopulismUpdates
@electo_mania
They were (and even achieved 2 poll leads for the first time since 2016), but the prospect of a right wing victory drove further left voters to support the Socialist party. Also, turnout was much higher than expected, which has seemingly favoured the Socialists 😄
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Green messaging this election is so funny like "we are only targeting 4 seats we won't win anywhere else" and then saying everyone should vote Green
Vote green. We are ready to win 4 green MPs.
If you want green, you have to vote green.
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@BritainElects
On the Mail's analysis, this would be between a disappointment & a disaster for the Tories, and between gaining ground & a triumph for Labour
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As the first round results were found by
@21five_public
, here's the winning margin by constituency
Note that because the blue party was not in the top 2 nationally, only yellow & red candidates could contest the second round
In 2007, in order to help the transfer to democracy, the Bhutanese monarchy held a mock election across the country, with a Yellow, Red, Blue and Green party
The Yellow party swept both the first and second round, winning in all but 1 of the 47 constituencies
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3K
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I asked ChatGPT to create a political system for an independent Cornwall and the results of its first election. Here's what it suggested, and the election results mapped
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I have too much time on my hands, so here is a thread of the highlights amongst the parties which received fewer than 500 votes
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@pfil1312
@PopulismUpdates
@electo_mania
Their centre-right party is called the Social Democratic Party soooo 😄
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NEW:
Anne Marie Morris, Conservative MP for Newton Abbot, has had the whip restored after voting for an opposition motion in January.
She has also resubmitted her letter of no confidence in Boris Johnson.
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Decimals
Tory: 18.41%
Reform: 18.34%
Still waiting for second crossover poll
Labour leads by 25%.
Tied-lowest Conservative % (worse than Truss).
Highest Reform %.
🇬🇧 Westminster VI (14/6-17/6):
Labour 43% (+1)
Reform UK 18% (+1)
Conservative 18% (–)
Lib Dem 12% (-1)
Green 5% (–)
SNP 3% (–)
Other 1% (–)
Changes +/- 12/6-13/6
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@FrancesW05
@JamieWallisMP
Banning conversion therapy is a one sided debate. It's bad. Hence we should ban it. End of.
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@CanadianPolling
'What would make the CPC more appealing to you?'
30% of canadians - if they were the Liberal party
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@BritainElects
The 'this council by-election means Labour are doomed' crowd are awfully silent tonight...
Note: please don't make national conclusions off council by-elections, they mean nothing
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i want to know what makes a Labour MP create his own party and win again on a socialist platform, then create another socialist party, then join the Tories
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shoutout to the 1% of Scots voting for Plaid Cymru in the most recent PeoplePolling poll
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🇵🇱 PiS loses its majority
🇬🇧 No election, but Boris's seat will go to by-election (Lab win). Tories will lose out a bit in the locals, the Lib Dems will lose significantly too. NI will see Alliance gain ground, and the DUP recover a bit
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@etonmessuk
@EuropeElects
Macron is likely to do well, sincd areas that supported him in the first round are going out to vote on a large scale
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@BritainElects
@YouGov
This poll achieves a larger lead than Corbyn ever had. The last time Labour got a +11 lead was December 2013 😄
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@theabsolutetom
@BritainElects
@OpiniumResearch
Have you got any actual polling data to prove Labour are losing those groups?
Looking at this poll in particular, 55% of 18-34 would vote Labour, compared to 56% of 18-24 (54% for 25-29, 46% for 30-39) at the 2019 election according to YouGov
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