PaxB
@PaxHODL
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#Bitcoin Math | Charts | Self Optimization
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Of 19.3 million
#BTC
, only 964k Bitcoin have been created since May 2020 halving. So basically 18.3 million were mined between 2009 and 2020. Still
#bitcoin
did a $5 to $28k in last 10 years w/o being too scarce.
This scarcity doubles in 2024.
Hyperbolic possible
@w_s_bitcoin
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@100trillionUSD
Btc s2f of 56 translates to 288k.
I dare you to find another asset that is so undervalued.
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@Mangan150
India also has super high rate in diabetes t2 and high blood pressure. Practically everyone is popping blood pressure meds.
Another fun fact about India - seed oils are thought to be healthy.
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@100trillionUSD
I miss your forecasts.
Do not get distracted by detractors.
Please do a 2023-25.
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@BritishHodl
If 10-20 billion came into Bitcoin in 2020/21 there should be no surprise if 50 billion came in 2024/25
50 billion in a year => up by 300k
400k - 1M is also what the s2f model says about 2024/25
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A man without purpose is a dying man.
Let me explain in this thread 🧵
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@kurtsaltrichter
He is unemployed that's why he can see things hidden in plain sight.
If he was employed in a 9-5, I'd never take him seriously.
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Why Yoga is THE TOOL you need in your toolbox to become a SOLID man🧵
== Thread ==
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@100trillionUSD
Cycle top approx (July 2025) ~800k
Cycle crash after (Dec 2026) ~135k
I used fib channel to get this approximation. The exact path taken would be unpredictable in between.
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@AlpacaAurelius
Disagree.
This advice might be good for a fully healthy person but definitely NOT for people suffering from insulin resistance or pre diabetes like the vast majority.
Need to avoid carbs for insulin resistance, no other way.
Insulin resistance leads to all chronic diseases.
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@Ledger_Support
@NewWageCrypto
If this possibility existed before, your users were under the wrong impression that nothing could extract/compromise their seed from the hardware.
Now you have made it abundantly clear that if you want, it is possible for you to extract their keys out of their hardware wallet
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@martypartymusic
@saylor
This is lit 🔥
Basically we are witnessing the building of the interstate highways for institutions to drive to
#Bitcoin
from any direction.
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@leecoyne
@Mangan150
@LDLSkeptic
Eggs and dairy are part of Indian diet but not in "large amounts"
All food is 100% carb or drenched in seed oils or both.
Ghee is considered good but is expensive and supposed to be "fattening" in India.
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@WatcherGuru
@nayibbukele
People who got in after El Salvador but before Blackrock got the cheapest
#Bitcoin
🚀
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@TheMoonCarl
After next halving in May 2024, the s2f becomes 56x2 = 112 which translates to >100 trillion market cap for
#Bitcoin
100 trillion market cap => 5 million USD/coin.
It still follows 10x every 4 years on average.
So by 2028, it should be 10000 trillion market cap => 500 million.
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@TheMoonCarl
Possibly confluence of two or more of these
But one way or other, ATHs coming soon
Nothing can stop an idea whose time has come
#Bitcoin
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@BritishHodl
Even Bitcoiners underestimate the amount of cash that will be printed in immediate short term.
Economists fear deflation much more than inflation.
A tsunami of fiat is coming.
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@TheMoonCarl
Since most people expect 100k so it could to be 250k
Based on gold fractal of 1970s (end of Gold standard) and previous cycle high log fib levels 😉
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@SteveOnSpeed
@simulx
FEAR
Fear of making mistakes
Fear of losing it all
Fear of being alone in an investment
Fear of sticking to one's own research
Fear stops people from building wealth
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@MDBitcoin
This is wrong.
$1 entering net buying
#bitcoin
increases market cap by $118.
There is solid math behind this multiple.
Even in bearish scenario, the multiple is 100.
So 1 trillion entering would raise the market cap by 100 trillion (5 million per coin).
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@AlpacaAurelius
Being an Indian, I know this is unfortunately true.
Without enough meat/eggs, people are hungry 24x7 for tea, coffee, papad, peanuts, namkeen, rice flakes (poha) and other assorted nonsense.
Result - almost everyone in every family is popping pills for diabetes and blood
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@100trillionUSD
I'd be happy if this happens.
But 3-4 data points can only predict the general direction, NOT the price like 500k average in 2024-28.
Caution is advised to all.
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Man is built to seek happiness through release of the hormone Dopamine.
Dopamine is an essential hormone BUT there are only 2 ways dopamine is released -
1. Making progress towards one's purpose
OR
2. Cheap entertainment (will elaborate on this)
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@AlpacaAurelius
Muliple studies show this -
Increases baseline dopamine level without crashing it later.
Nothing else raises higher dopamine baseline without crashing it later.
Higher baseline dopamine = higher motivation, tendency to act and work hard, feel good
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Man was born to BUILD.
Man was born to burn in his passion, follow his purpose, build the life of his dreams and earn his daily dopamine the HARD way.
A man with a purpose is building his life and is earning his dopamine.
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@100trillionUSD
United States SEC has approved
#Bitcoin
as a legitimate asset tradeworthy enough for retirement funds and Wall St.
Europe and rest of the world will follow this precedent and accept Bitcoin as a commodity that can be traded.
Historical is an understatement.
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@thekaipullai
Bitcoin is not backed by YouTubers
Bitcoin cannot be printed like socialist governments print fiat money for welfare
Issuance of new bitcoin is governed by math coded in open source code and can be verified by anyone on a laptop.
Please learn more. Only 21 million can exist.
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@AlpacaAurelius
Fruits don't make you fat.
Fruits only give you insulin resistance.
Prehistoric man did not have access to "absurd amount of fruit".
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If you do not have a purpose that makes you jump out of bed every morning, you need to find a purpose.
Finding purpose should be your life’s purpose until you have one.
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@tonythebullBTC
This is misleading because the long term holders selling is most likely GBTC outflows that shows up on chain as long term holders selling m
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Bitcoin on base layer is the savings account
bitcoin on lightning is the checking account
Both are dilution-proof, globally accessible and censorship-resistant
FOREVER
Think of bitcoin on Lightning like a chequing account that doesn't suck.
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@Bitgrow_Lab
We buy
#bitcoin
when we accept that we were wrong about
#bitcoin
.
No humility = no coiner
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@stats_feed
Only members can buy hotdog and soda combo at Costco.
Costco annual membership -
1985: $25
2024: $60
Assuming quality of ingredients in hotdog and size stayed exactly the same -
Total inflation - 140% in 39 years
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Choose a life of purpose.
It might be hard but way better than the alternative.
Do not squander life’s infinite possibilities and all your energy on cheap pleasures or meaningless jobs from which you want to retire.
Find the purpose of life today.
Thank me later.
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FOCUS comes naturally to man with purpose.
He is gratified by the progress he makes and therefore does not care about cheap pleasures that money can buy.
Only people with purpose actually enjoy life, others are just going through the motions.
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@FelicityHannah
When you use words "crypto" and "Bitcoin" interchangeably, you understand neither.
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@100trillionUSD
2024 Timeline could look like this -
Jan - Spot Bitcoin ETF approval
Feb - First ETFs start trading
Mar - First interest rate cuts
Apr - Halving (Bitcoin highest stock to flow asset)
June to Nov - Further rate cuts and QE begin
Dec - FASB accounting rule goes into effect
Do
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@NeilJacobs
Question is moot without start date and location of retirement.
If plan is to retire in 10 years in Mexico, even 1 Bitcoin may be a lot.
But if you plan to retire in a western country in 5 years, you would need 10 btc.
In 20 years, 0.1 Bitcoin would be a s&p500 company.
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@luke_broyles
Combined effect of halving + ETFs takes
#bitcoin
to $328,000 at equilibrium
Assumptions -
1. ETF approval happens around halving date in April 2024.
2. Assume ~180 billion (1% of 17.7 trillion) is coming to Bitcoin in the epoch duration 2024-28.
3. Present daily supply of 900
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@LifeMathMoney
Anything that releases rivers of dopamine (cheap pleasures) makes you lazy and demotivated.
That's the chemistry of dopamine.
Weed, alcohol, sweets, masturbating, social media.
Abstain and you shall be unstoppable💪
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@MasculineTheory
Dopamine in the brain is good when it is released in a steady baseline flow for motivation and hardwork.
Spikes of dopamine released due to weed, sugar or other substances leave not enough for steady baseline casing loss of motivation and feeling of wellness.
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EASY DOPAMINE is a mirage and no lasting happiness comes from it.
Easy dopamine kills motivation because he gets his daily dopamine from easy sources.
After the quick burst of fun wears off, man has to seek the next thrill.
Like a lab rat.
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@LifeMathMoney
Yeah look into TRT if you have already done all things below -
1 Optimized sleep 7 hours / night
2 Lost body fat to <15%
3 Don't eat sugar and wheat flour products
4 Get plenty of sun exposure
5 Optimized sleep/wake cycle
6 Lift weights 3-4 times a week
7 Can do 10 pull ups on
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@AlpacaAurelius
Clear message from Lord Krishna to eat more ghee/makhan/butter
But everyone in India is avoiding these for "health reasons"
Result - everyone is hungry round the clock
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@DylanLeClair_
Create fiat out of thin air and dump it into Bitcoin.
Everyone's gonna follow Saylor's playbook.
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A prehistoric man’s found purpose in protecting his family or hunting game for his survival.
A modern man might find purpose in building his business, building his muscles or building his empire.
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@elonmusk
@yassineARK
It should be that hard to create new money.
At that level, money is energy as it should be.
If it comes out of thin air, it is trash not money.
Everyone is sleeping on this.
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@BitcoinMagazine
Common people will consider Bitcoin a scam/fraud/ponzi until $100,000 when they would suddenly be interested in dipping their toes to see what it is.
10% down and they will sell it all.
They would come back again at $800,000 and start buying at all time highs.
Rinse and
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@AlpacaAurelius
Warm showers keep you in the doom loop of comfort zone.
Cold shower 1. Warm shower -1
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@saylor
@charliebilello
Last 10 years -
All currencies fall against USD.
USD falls against Bitcoin.
A sane person would try to find the root cause.
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@100trillionUSD
Cross asset s2f model had a R2 of >99%
How do we explain it's inaccuracy in this cycle?
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@AlpacaAurelius
None of these tribes drink gallons of factory made seed oils or fluoride ridden tap water or distract themselves 24x7 with phones and video games
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Why Vitamin K2 is the powerhouse nobody talks about.
But everybody needs it 🧵
== THREAD ==
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@ChristianAfana1
@100trillionUSD
s2fx does not guarantee a market price on a set date.
Price could stay low for months, eventually form a new cluster near the s2fx line.
Over the long term, the price tends towards that value.
The spiral chart indicates 10x every 4 years but that is on average.
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🚨🚨 My math for price target in 2024-28 👇
Assumptions -
1. ETF approval happens around halving date in April 2024.
2. Conservatively assume ~180 billion (1% of 17.7 trillion) is coming to Bitcoin in the epoch duration 2024-28.
3. Current daily supply of 900 bitcoin (mined
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@thomas_fahrer
If you own anything other than
#bitcoin
you will own less and less
#bitcoin
over time.
Therefore investing in anything else makes you feel good about diversification but is just an exercise in futility.
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@MasculineTheory
Books I'd give to my son -
The Wall Speaks by
@jerr_rrej
The Fountainhead
The Bitcoin standard
The Almanack by
@naval
Bhagawat Geeta (concise version)
Guns, Germs and Steel
The Black Swan
The Obesity Code by Dr Fung
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When a man has no purpose or no life goals, there is no way of earning his daily dopamine.
Without daily dose of dopamine, life is painful because there is no satisfaction.
Man has no way but take easier and faster ways to get his dopamine.
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@morganhousel
Government bonds down by 75% since 2020.
Bitcoin up 300% since 2020.
But Bitcoin is risky and volatile.
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Pretty soon man finds himself in a never ending cycle of dopamine quests.
Every action is aimed at seeking the next thrill, the next comfort.
Physical comfort becomes a life goal.
Physical comfort is a meaningless drug just like opioids - both are addictive as hell.
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Stocks - We are at historic high multiples and we don't like inflation
Bonds - We are a fiat contract, designed to debase
Real Estate - We are not liquid or fungible, we suffer from property taxes not to mention - we don't move anywhere
Gold - Guys, hold my beer 🍺
Gold is a scam, you can’t run a full node and fully verify it cheaply
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Free market is building itself the rails for global free trade.
We got front row seats for this show.
Bitcoin transaction fees are trending down, forever!
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@100trillionUSD
This 2025 price of
#Bitcoin
= 1000 oz Gold = 1.8 million
This 2025 price target of 1.8 million fits NICELY within the long term price channel.
Funny coincidence.
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