Yassine Elmandjra
@yassineARK
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crypto @ARKInvest | #bitcoin | Disclosure
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Pinned Tweet
1/ There are so many hidden gems in Bitcointalk threads and p2p foundation posts from back in the day. Here are some of my favorites:
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1/ Bitcoin critics continue to assert that mining is wasteful and disproportionately damaging to the environment.
Contrary to consensus thinking, we believe the impact of bitcoin mining is a net positive for the environment.
Here's why:
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- FTX secretly insolvent
- BTC testing new lows
- Alameda toast
- Binance planning to acquire FTX
- FTT down 80% headed to 0
- CZ announces proof of reserves
- Su Zhu re-emerges
- Do Kwon and Martin Shkreli on UpOnly
- Coinbase temporarily down
How was your day at the office?
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Your college economics professor doesn’t know why Bitcoin is up today.
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I’ve never heard of anyone who quit Bitcoin to join a bank.
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“The price of a single bitcoin could exceed $1 million by 2030.”
- Cathie Wood
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Bitcoin's hash rate hit an all time high 500 exahashes/s this month.
To highlight the enormity of this number:
- For every star in our galaxy, the Bitcoin network is calculating 5 billion computations per second.
- It would take ~2000 years for the entire global population,
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“Cars are not a form of transportation,” says Head of Horse Carriage Division
"Cryptocurrencies are not currencies. Full stop," says ECB President Christine Lagarde
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The price of a single bitcoin could exceed $1 million by 2030.
We are still early.
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Over the weekend, Bitcoin settled ~$33 billion, facilitated ~600k transactions, & issued 2,037 new BTC at a steady & predictable ~1.8% inflation rate. ~1 million new addresses were generated & miners earned $43 m producing 326 blocks.
Banks were closed. The Fed was not needed.
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Bitcoin has fully recovered from a >50% drawdown for only the 5th time in history
If bitcoin returns half of what it returned the last time this happened, btc will hit $125,000
If it returns half of what it has returned on average, btc will hit $300,000
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Even down 40% from its peak, Bitcoin is up 400% in the last year.
Where is the perspective?
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We will look back at China’s ban on BTC mining as one of the greatest things to ever happen to Bitcoin.
With hash rate fully recovered, the “China controls Bitcoin” narrative can finally be put to bed.
China did not ban Bitcoin mining. China banned itself from mining Bitcoin.
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A lot has happened since this chart was made ~3 years ago.
I believe Bitcoin is now very close to achieving "reliable store of value" status.
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Bitcoin miners collect 1 cent for every $100 the Bitcoin network settles.
Visa collects 22 cents for every $100 it settles.
Visa is inefficient.
In 2021, the Bitcoin network's take rate from transaction fees was significantly (over 20x!) lower than that of Visa.
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In my first 6 months at ARK, I went out of my way to live in the cheapest place I could find so I could buy BTC w/ my savings
Found a place on craigslist deeeep in Brooklyn. Lived w/ 3 random strangers. No closet so had to rent out a locker at the gym to fit most of my clothes.
Bitcoiners will live like this to buy an extra $100 worth of btc each month
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This is going to be a conversation for the ages. No question is off limits.
Live this Wednesday. 2 PM ET.
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Bitcoin hit $50k.
Meanwhile, Google search volumes relative to price are at all time lows.
This is a new era.
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Analyzing BTC's price action without using on-chain data is like valuing a company without using its financials
On-chain data is BTC's ultimate valuation tool
Just published “A Framework for Valuing BTC” w/
@kenoshaking
feat 5 new ARK on-chain indicators
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4/ Even so, Bitcoin’s energy consumption is trivial compared to legacy financial systems. As measured by electricity costs alone, Bitcoin is much more efficient than traditional banking and gold mining on a global scale.
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Bitcoin is trading at $52,000 and not a single nation-state has fully embraced it.
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Bitcoin’s 30-day net change of supply liquidity is at its lowest point over this entire bull market, reaching levels not seen since August 2017.
An estimated 77% of Bitcoin’s supply is currently illiquid.
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i’ve learned more from pseudonyms on twitter than professors in college
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The Truth About Bitcoin: A Comprehensive Thread Debunking Common Myths
This last week has revealed that despite growing institutional acceptance, Bitcoin remains highly misunderstood:
- Jamie Dimon claims Satoshi controls Bitcoin
- Vanguard claims bitcoin is too volatile and
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If you don't want bitcoin now, did you ever really want it?
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3/ The costliness to produce bitcoin is fundamental to its value.
Unlike the US dollar, Bitcoin cannot be printed with the stroke of a keyboard.
Instead, it converts the output from cheap stranded energy sources into something with monetary value.
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Square is fully committed to remaining Bitcoin focused
Q&A from yesterday's call:
Q:"Are you looking to expand into crypto beyond Bitcoin like buy & sell other cryptocurrencies?"
Jack: "No, we're not. Our focus is on helping Bitcoin become the native currency of the internet."
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2/ First, proof-of-work mining is critical to Bitcoin. In the Bitcoin network, trustworthiness is protected by computation, and mining is what gives Bitcoin its ability to coordinate trust and facilitate the transfer of value without relying on a centralized authority.
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12/ In summary, Bitcoin does not waste energy.
It is clear that because Bitcoin’s footprint is so easy to quantify, it is singled out for special treatment.
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7/ In reality, renewables account for the largest percentage of bitcoin’s energy mix. In the search for the cheapest form of electricity, miners flock to regions offering a glut of renewable electricity, unlocking stranded energy assets.
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Bitcoin doesn’t need the support of any single individual. That is its greatest value proposition.
You can buy it. You can support it. You can adopt it.
You can ignore it. You can bash it. You can dump it.
Either way, Bitcoin will keep chugging along.
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Everyone wishes they'd bought BTC at $10 in 2011, since it's now up 4200x
-But who would have held on when it hit $2.20 six months later?
-Who would have continued to hold when it hit $1k in 2013, up 100x in 2 yrs?
-Who wouldn't have sold by 2015, when price fell 90% from highs?
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Bitcoin’s conservatism is its most important feature.
A system that aims to provide a scarce, decentralized, global, borderless, non-sovereign money SHOULD be boring and predictable.
If you aren’t boring and predictable, you aren’t competing against Bitcoin.
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Wealth concentration in PoS is far more problematic than in PoW.
In PoS, inequalities compound over time and wealth can be transformed into political power.
In PoW, the exact opposite happens. Miners are forced sellers and have little to no discretion over system features.
In proof of work, influence is dictated by possession of hashpower
In proof of stake, influence is dictated by possession of native tokens
Hence concentrated ownership has a significantly greater impact on censorship resistance in POS than in POW
This is underappreciated
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My friends have stopped asking me if they should buy the dip.
We’re close.
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Do not underestimate the role
@jack
will play in bringing bitcoin to the masses.
Square is considering making a hardware wallet for
#bitcoin
. If we do it, we would build it entirely in the open, from software to hardware design, and in collaboration with the community. We want to kick off this thinking the right way: by sharing some of our guiding principles.
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Stop ordering books online if you care about the environment.
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You can’t actually ban bitcoin. You can only ban yourself from using it.
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The number of short-term Bitcoin holders is at an all-time low.
A record ~84% of Bitcoin's supply has not been moved in over 3 months.
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6/ Another common mistake energy detractors make is to naively extrapolate Bitcoin’s energy consumption to the equivalent CO2 emissions. What matters is the type of energy source being used to generate electricity.
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Track 1 of
#theBword
has dropped.
Could not be more thrilled about the lineup of speakers you will hear from today.
More than 8 hours worth of content that will live on the website forever.
A special thanks to Bitcoin for making this all possible.
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Cryptocurrencies now trade more volume than the largest public equities in the world.
Cryptocurrency exchange volume is on pace to reach $16 tr this yr, up more than 8-fold from last year
For perspective, FAANG stocks are on pace to reach only $12 tr of trading volume this year
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Just published the ultimate manifesto on the power of on-chain data w/
@kenoshaking
This is the culmination of all the work we’ve done this year developing a framework to assess Bitcoin’s fundamentals.
On-chain data = alpha
Enjoy.
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8/ In some instances, Bitcoin mining is even helping to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by consuming methane that would have been leaked into the atmosphere via flaring.
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Dogecoin's market cap today is greater than Bitcoin's market cap in March 2020.
What a difference a year makes.
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Excited to introduce the first official issue of “The Bitcoin Monthly”
Starting this month, ARK will be publishing an in-depth report covering Bitcoin’s market action and sharing where we think the market's headed.
Here are the major highlights from this month’s report:
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Bitcoin is digital real estate.
If Bitcoin’s 21 million units represented the surface area of habitable land on Earth, each unit of bitcoin would be equivalent to 750 acres of land.
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On a returns basis, a $30,000 BTC price today is equivalent to a $1,800 BTC price in 2017.
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You at all-time highs: “I want to buy more bitcoin”
You now: “I’m scared to buy more bitcoin”
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This lineup is going to be epic:
-
@jack
-
@CathieDWood
-
@moneyball
-
@nic__carter
-
@TheBlueMatt
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@ODELL
-
@adam3us
-
@jfnewbery
-
@HesterPeirce
-
@arjunblj
-
@LynAldenContact
-
@gladstein
-
@neha
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@lopp
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@valkenburgh
-
@adamcjonas
-
@APompliano
Cannot wait.
JUST IN –
@jack
and
@CathieDWood
to host “The ₿ Word,” a one-day summit designed to “destigmatize”
#Bitcoin
narratives for business leaders.
@adam3us
,
@nic__carter
and
@neha
will speak.
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1/ We often forget how the
@FederalReserve
, America’s central bank and the heart of the country’s banking system, truly came to be.
In this thread, I will lay out a fascinating, often overlooked, part of history:
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1/ Bitcoin is trading below its 200 WMA and short-and long-term cost bases for only the fourth time in price history.
These levels have historically marked generational bottoms.
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Bitcoin solves Square’s biggest problem. The future is bright.
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A reminder that China's crackdown on Bitcoin has been happening for years.
Identical narratives. Identical headlines. Identical FUD.
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Bitcoin’s yearly moving average price is about to break an all time high.
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10 years ago, Bitcoin mining was a hobbyist activity.
Today, it generates more annual revenue than some of the largest publicly traded companies in the world.
Spotify, eBay, Hermes, Chipotle, Hertz, and Hilton all generate less annual revenue than bitcoin miners.
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The previous two times Bitcoin saw a >40% daily gain, it was trading at $0.40 and $5.65.
Today, Bitcoin’s 42% swing is the 3rd largest daily gain in price history.
Data via
@coinmetrics
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Two years ago — when bitcoin was trading under $4,000 — no one would have believed you had you told them bitcoin would be in a bear market in two years… trading at $30,000
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9/ "That energy would have been wasted, as is evidenced by the existence of flare stacks. That gas is flared because it can't be brought to market. Bitcoin miners are incentivized to show up and consume that wasted energy."
-
@martybent
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10/ "If Bitcoin ends up being worth substantially more in the future Bitcoin’s energy expenditure may end up looking rather cheap in the final analysis." -
@nic__carter
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1/ For the first time in history, bitcoin is less volatile than both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
The last time volatility was this low, bitcoin rose from $9,000 to $60,000 in less than a year.
New edition of The Bitcoin Monthly is out, led by
@dpuellARK
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A 10% cash allocation by S&P 500 companies into bitcoin would have a $400,000 impact on price.
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11/ Coins only need to be issued once. And it’s better for the planet that they be issued when the coin price was low, and the electricity expended to extract them was commensurately low.
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My landlord just called me. She’s a very sweet, older lady.
"I want to talk to you about Bitcoin. You said there were only 21 million of these things? I want to learn more. And then I want to buy some. Where do I start?"
Today, her Bitcoin journey officially began.
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This is how bitcoin’s price would behave if the current bull market dwarfed the 2017 bull market in the same way the 2017 bull market dwarfed the 2013 bull market.
The top would be around $390,000 per bitcoin.
The red dot is where we’d be now.
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Bitcoin is not a get rich quick scheme. Those with a short term time horizon will be purged.
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Insurance companies have an estimated $40 trillion in client assets. A 1% allocation into Bitcoin by every major insurance company would take Bitcoin's price beyond $50k
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1/ Bitcoin's short-term holder cost basis has crossed below its long-term holder cost basis for only the 4th time ever.
This cross historically marks a cyclical bottom.
New edition of The Bitcoin Monthly is officially out, feat guest author
@WClementeIII
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We've reached a point where embracing bitcoin and being wrong has become less risky than ignoring it.
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A sensible allocation into bitcoin by institutions would have a $500,000 impact on price.
Consider the opportunity cost of ignoring this.
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Since inception, 6.9 billion BTC have been transferred on chain, settling ~$60 trillion dollars of cumulative value at the price of each transfer and ~$400 trillion of cumulative value at today’s prices.
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Fed Chair Jerome Powell: "You wouldn't need cryptocurrencies if you had a digital US currency"
Me: "A digital US currency is the exact reason why you need cryptocurrencies."
A US Digital Dollar is so antithetical to Bitcoin that it will end up being the largest Bitcoin onramp.
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Bitcoin is on pace to settle twice as much value this year as all of its previous years combined.
Bitcoin annual settlement volumes are now ~4 times that of Visa’s and ~6% of the Fedwire.
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It took me 3 months to understand how Bitcoin works.
I could spend a lifetime and still wouldn’t understand how the dollar works.
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1/ Bitcoin has reclaimed its 200-week moving average after breaching it for only the 7th time in price history.
Bitcoin's 1-year return after reclaiming the 200 WMA is on average ~240%.
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“Everybody should have 1% of their assets in Bitcoin specifically.
When you see the amt of leverage the financial industry is running, there is a lot of risk to the downside. Now, an average individual citizen of every country in the world has an uncorrelated hedge.”
@chamath
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Bitcoin’s value proposition has never been so apparent.
Unclear whether that’s good or bad.
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There are far fewer bitcoin in circulation than there are millionaires, making it impossible for each millionaire in the world to own at least 1 bitcoin.
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No, Bitcoin is NOT destroying the environment.
A world with Bitcoin is a world that generates more electricity from renewable, carbon-free sources.
If bitcoin needs anything, it’s more white papers. In this one,
@Square
and
@ARKInvest
team up to argue for bitcoin as a key driver of renewable energy’s future:
Hate reading? Here’s the nutshell version:
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Bitcoin has experienced five price declines of over 75% and has still outperformed equities, bonds, and gold.
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crypto is to fintech what fintech is to traditional banks.
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Today, Bitcoin and Ethereum’s combined market cap surpassed 1 trillion USD.
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The last time BTC traded at ~$45k:
-Terra/LUNA was a ~$45b market cap
-FTX was valued at ~$30b
-3AC was managing ~$18b
-Celsius had ~$30b on platform
None of these entities exist anymore, and we are on the verge of witnessing the biggest catalyst for institutional adoption BTC
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2/ As ARK has noted in the past, cash transactions account for a larger share of illicit activity than do cryptocurrency transactions, on both absolute and relative terms.
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times like these make you realize just how humble satoshi was
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This is a big reason why classifying other chains as competitors is unproductive.
Bitcoin cannot compete with other chains, nor should it want to.
Other chains are losing to competition for not being “progressive” enough.
Bitcoin will win by not being “progressive” at all.
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if you don't want bitcoin now, did you ever really want it?
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A man has been arrested for writing code.
Can you see why this is a huge issue?
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"Bitcoin alone is more valuable than every unicorn over the last decade combined." -
@balajis
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