The Real Norseman1
@Norseman1
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1/22/20 = 100% Cash (not short) tweeted it.
11/4/21= 100% Cash (light short) tweeted it.
6/7/24 = 100% Cash (light short) posted it(X now, do we still say tweet?).
I’m probably early. I’d prefer to not be 10 weeks early. We went on to make more ATH’s post my going cash on the
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$SPX TIMER-
I believe I now have enough evidence that $SPX will break 4280.
I have too many things too list why. Chart has a decent scratch list in it.
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This is the last post from me for what will probably be months. I have large projects that require I withdraw from
#fintwit
screen time.
My style has been pretty well posted in thousands of tweets.
FTD rolls in I go to 35%+ invested per IT Timer
IT Timer fails I go 100% Cash
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1/22/20 I went to cash and tweeted it.
11/4/21 I went to cash (& light short) and tweeted it.
Looking for -10% + in Q1 and a lid. This chart will get more notes as we go.
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Forget 3800 targets. Means nothing to me. Corrections non-recession r “average” -15.4% (exceeded now). Recession “average” -36%. $SPX 3900-3400 is AIR.
Bulls need robust broad DEMAND now! 90/90 at minimum..A rally is expected here & now. I’ll report if I think it’s good or not.
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Quick pop in…Looks like 84% UVOL closed and it is a FTD confirmed! So FTD/80 Combo. 35% long.Bears you better be careful here. 4300 is first overhead target. We watch weakness there..
FTD was early Day 4, which is better than I have drawn. I had Day 6.
This is the last post from me for what will probably be months. I have large projects that require I withdraw from
#fintwit
screen time.
My style has been pretty well posted in thousands of tweets.
FTD rolls in I go to 35%+ invested per IT Timer
IT Timer fails I go 100% Cash
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$SPX Long-Term “Timer”
Why? ……………….The “R” Word triggered.
I had thought we could get through to August without triggering thus the 41k $DJI target from the 8 straight leg (that has failed btw).
Sept+ for NBER to make it official (election will make this tricky) for
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92.4% UVOL ……the first 90/90 for a lot of you virgins!
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$SPX IT “TIMER”-
A “close” below 3908.19 triggers 3750 gets printed. P/A into that will be critical.
The 90% DVOL yesterday is active & suggests a series could be underway. 3900 can only hold so long,..& only so many times.
I believe we must probe lower for Demand to stick.
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Bullish or Bearish set-up into 3900?
My vote Bearish…looking for rally to stall out and fail. Retest lows at minimum…. Q3 capitulation still due. This is opportunity to clean up and clear out…
@HamzeiAnalytics
@WalterDeemer
@CMTRandazzo
@mnkahn
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$SPX “TIMER”…ST pullback expectation. IT play back down and the crosses.
Hedged up today for this expected move.
I appreciate the requests for a chart and yes it was overdue. Thanks..
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Looking for 2nd 90/90 now above 3900. I’m long 50%.
I’m super busy and do not have time to spend on
#fintwit
…I appreciate the comments, dialog etc. wish I could spend more time,..but I just can’t. Hopefully I’ve laid enough groundwork you know what I’d be doing here anyways.
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1/ Quick drive-by. 3900 refuses to go down “closed”. No way we go 8 weeks straight w/losses. …and $DJI 9.
Everyone I mean everyone is calling this a Bear Market and Recession……I’ve never seen this many people with a R view.
I’m not uber bearish until 3900 goes down.
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This is con’t chart to the main $SPX Timer chart.
I’m liking the next swing up is weak due to last leg was weak and failed to create a powerful move.
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We’ve exceeded 2014-2016 consolidation in % correction. 2010 had 10% month ranges. We’ve just done that. & -16% is now doable since seller exhaustion is lacking at current levels.
I’m liking a flush early in week and big bounce. $SPX 4070 holding closing basis Monday-Wednesday
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After review this weekend I’m most likely going back all cash on longs soon. Tight monitor &/or half off Monday am. let rest ride if they wanna keep going.
This leg up has failed to produce Demand as I monitor it to produce the next major bull leg. Yes FTD only, not enough.
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A lot of bottom callers on
#fintwit
today. Kiss 14200 again? Maybe….March lurks and too many distracted from main event imo..
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The NASDAQ COMPOSITE “IT/LT Timer” says price top imminent and still searching for the 50-100% invested major price low put in since selling the 80-100% invested into 11/4/21.
1 year into this for me now.
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$SPX Timer: I’m looking for this type of set up into Q1. Get that one more 90DVOL with a Market In Correction to reset and then thrust. No thrust,.. of course no trust. Can’t flip LT Bullish (2-3 months+) just yet.
Santa Rally window is yellow. Starts the 23rd and - Jan 4th.
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1/ As you know I’m looking for the hold above $SPX 4070 Closing basis for a pause, (no recession). On that hold & rally the bulls will absolutely have to bring it. Major thrust/Demand. A few things suggest they won’t. I go back to 100% cash on that non confirm as the R-Word is
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A fresh 90DVOL is threatening to print here today. It’s structurally be low 8/26’s 90DVOL. This means 3900 prints again. What happens there will be critical. Why demand there again?
I’m open to a 1962 type bottom. That means 9/6 gets probed. Sentiment is absolutely murdered.
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1/ I’ve been on this platform to engage in constructive dialog related to market. I’ve never blocked anyone.
I’ve always felt the market is like street ball. Have to take trash talk if you want 2 give it, I like to give it, so np.
Problem is the sheer volume of comments, etc.
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Confirmed: 83UVOL/87UVOL (surrogate 90)/FTD thus another 90/90(FTD combo).
This is a cluster now and says Demand is being found here at $SPX 3900. Is a clear line in the sand. I’m bullish and optimistic 3900 holds. In the meantime watch for bullish and bearish divergences.
Looking for 2nd 90/90 now above 3900. I’m long 50%.
I’m super busy and do not have time to spend on
#fintwit
…I appreciate the comments, dialog etc. wish I could spend more time,..but I just can’t. Hopefully I’ve laid enough groundwork you know what I’d be doing here anyways.
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1/ I’m going to flash my mentor’s work. Christopher Cadbury the former
#1
Timer. Retired in late 2013. I have 8 years compiled..and I’ll show 1 letter. A period with a very important 90/90.
The Mc Osc. just fired +230.53 on Friday’s close.
Note the 5 days straight in chart.
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This is what my homework produced as the bullish outcome to this 90/90. It comes with a gut check at 3991.24 a few times. This is analog w/similar 90/90’s w/6 straight weeks w/losses, & -20%.
Main point 3991.24 needs too hold. Chart speaks for itself. Price & Time.
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Heck of a grind…fear lurks. $SPX 5 minute. Imo we are coiling for final move out of the hole.
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Today would be day 4 if we close red. If we close red I’ll look for a whoosh into tomorrow and possibly a day 6 on Friday. That’s where I expect a 90% DVOL to arrive. On day 5 or 6.
I’d consider it a 1st leg down…then we bounce and go get “the low” into end of March.
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Time to get the measuring sticks out for more
#SPX
“Timing”.
This is a follow-up post to the one earlier today. Friday was the 64th session on a “Confirmed Uptrend” (CUp). That is a very solid run.
100 session runs are rare. 107 sessions out of the 2020 bottom, and 100+
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Many are thinking it’s the Elon bottom,…… no it’s Gartman Bottom.
Not even Jimmy Chill can compete with Dennis.
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Month later and at low end of the box in Time and Price. The dip was BOT in 2 segments. I like the action down into the box. No serious Supply. I’m looking to start move out of the box no later than next week.
IT “Timer” now says no serious move south of box and move up out.
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$SPX TIMER: I wanted a 90DVOL parked at bottom of box. Close on both. Yesterday posted expected bounce off that w/90UVOL. I like 80+ now. 2 sessions to get to 4300 & then back down on a full 90DVOL which will appear to be the one that is the DOOM we are going to die 90DVOL needed
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The narrowness and divergences continue to worsen. Only 2 times since 1940 have they not led to a major drawdown. Odds favor a minor drawdown at minimum (-5%+). I have significant gains to pull or hedge. This almost happened Friday. Like to see exhaustion into the news and sell.
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$SPX “TIMER”
A-D Lines I track made new lows 7/14 setting up negative divergences w/Price. This is one piece that says lows tested at minimum & 3339 still active target. 7/7 was a 90UVOL & so there is a 90/90, but it’s a late 90UVOL out of “sweet spot”. Continue w/mostly cash.
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$SPX “Timer”…big move coming. Bulls to be in charge soon in my opinion.
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4/30/22
So close..
@WifeyAlpha
. Great job on your levels. $SPX 4070 is big bounce level for me. BUT…. We did not “poke the eye” react to it and that’s a problem. I expect this will be a big cover area on tag.
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If you’ve followed me for awhile you must be wondering how I’m not near fully invested. So many things I follow are screaming extreme pessimism etc. and buy both hands.
See pinned tweet. We are in a Taper environment and I believe we have not bottomed the cycle out yet. I wait
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Updated $SPX Timer for this week+.
Scaling into more longs at 21ema -50dma. 200dma is just.5% from 50dma IF we even make it to the 50 for a touch.
I look for leading stocks through this pattern. What held up the best etc.
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$SPX w/ UVOL and DVOL. Two 80 UVOL’s off yellow highlighter holds. 2 partial 90DVOL, high 80DVOL and a full 90DVOL and can’t smash Feb lows closed. I expect 80UVOL + next session or two. FTD to follow.
Sentiment, oversold(enough).
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6/13/22 Drive-by post.
Edits in yellow, box target in Price & Time for end of 2022, after trip to 3339-3242 zone. Total Capitulation move incoming on move there/or before it, big yellow curve is Price & Time. 3900 to act as resistance.
Plan is in yellow text edits. Stay safe..
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-31% 3339 in Q3 on track.
$SPY where we are vs past bear markers since 1929.
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999
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$NDX 101 Session CUp if today goes out without Distribution.
2018 Post 100+ Session CUp = -10.2% “Closed”
2020 Post 100+ Session CUp = -9.9% “Closed”
2024 Post 100+ Session CUp= ?
The prior two 100+ Sessions CUp’s ended abruptly w/sharp drops to and eventually through or to
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I’ll post when I’m going in for the LT reverse in a big way. Don’t get confused people on ST/LT plays.
Since 11/4/21 I’ve never made mention of being LT bullish and calling for Major Bottom in. I will when I believe it’s in and I’ll be piling in..we aren’t there yet.
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BOOYA !! 7 straight averted on $DJI!
A very bullish set-up now. Got all three of my reversal criteria met off bell. It was nasty down there but history said this Bull wasn’t ready to die yet. Black eye , but not die. We should see a decent rally from here.
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Investors Intelligence:
Bulls: 60.3%
Bears: 17.6%
60% is frothy….even in Bulls. Yes, we can trend above for a bit. Normally I’d be
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Expectation was $SPX 4070 would hold “closing” basis (Daily). I didn’t expect it too hold even on the 10 minute time frame which I keep on the screens.
Market needs to rip hard out of here. Slight pull-back off bottom of box then rip back up into it.
#levels
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Well here we are…$SPX 4070 tested twice “CLOSED” w/one half of the equation complete. 90DVOL in…No 90UVOL. This week will be wild. Blue= edit.
On 15% Long into the bell, light hedges if 4070 breaks.
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$SPX IT “TIMER”. Weekend 3/31/24
Expectation more than ever is that a …Pull-Back is Imminent!!
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Bulls can all thank me for bottom ticking w/ the 1st vote.
I’m not afraid to voice my opinion as you’ve seen. Many on this platform will not.
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$COMP “TIMER” -
After mulling everything over I see a rip to the 200dma. Chop it up.. then down for a retest in March swing.
I’ll be scalping long up into 200dma and then setting up a short position there.
Of course I’ll be watching everything internally up into that area.
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I’m going 100% CASH here today! I’m probably early.
Already light short. Most likely shorter on pops. More later…
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$SPX Weekend Update:
The 3/31/24 “Timer” hit its objective in Price and Time. I didn’t think we would hit it once $DJI hit its 5th straight session w/losses. And in the end we hit 6 straight on $DJI , $SPX and $NASDAQ and got $SPX in.
For me it’s been more important that I
$SPX IT “TIMER”. Weekend 3/31/24
Expectation more than ever is that a …Pull-Back is Imminent!!
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$NYSE ST/IT “Timer” suggests more bullish action expected.
Closed 81UVOL right at the 50dma. Two bullish objectives achieved today and a win for the bulls. This is going to put the Mc Osc over 0 line. Bulls are back in charge on the $NYSE although with some more work to do.
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UVOL/DVOL
I want penetration below the red line closed (90% DVOL). We’ve done it numerous times w/out $NYSE A-D Lines leading down.
Correlate that..
I expect busy spikes above yellow and below red like other past ares of volatility.
Starting to hand out a lot for free.
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3900 failed as support as I expected it would on the next trip down to it w/out massive Demand found at it.
“From failed moves come fast moves”..
@alphatrends
3339 is -14% + below it and major wealth destruction for most. It’s the Full Recession Target per pinned tweet. -30%+
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#SPX
ST/IT “TIMER”
Sniffing long now down into the box. Yellow = high risk w/out confirmation.
Green = Confirmation of 90UVOL (following a 90DVOL) and a FTD. Must FTD out of the hole at minimum. That’s a buy for me . A STRONG buy is 90/90(FTD).
FTD= Follow-Through Day (which
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$NASDAQ ST “Timer”
We are in the “Sweet Spot” for a 90UVOL/FTD. It looked like we might get one Friday on the $NASDAQ. Came up short.
I think we can pause Monday and go for one Tuesday.
If we haven’t 90UVOL(or two 80’s)/FTD’d by next Friday then the odds increase we are
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90% DVOL off open. Looking to tag 5dma and possibly close over it today for the reversal. Coiling…
Don’t wanna touch $SPX 4070 again unless we are going down into a recession(revisit this subject later). Double bottom for now up into a mid May IT top. Has to rip.
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We are within 1-2 sessions of a ST/IT bottom in my opinion. Will it be retested into the end of March yes.
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$SPX 3969 is mattering for my personal hold level here through 2 sessions playing at it...gotta stay closed above it (and the sandbox isn’t completely wrecked)…and get our rally underway. Whether that rally is a false rally remains to be seen.
60%+ favoring a recession now.
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$SPX ST/IT “Timer”
One man’s right shoulder is another man’s Dragon. Thrusty neck too.
I cannot recall a time traders were this set on the bearish seasonal train as with his August and Sept.
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2 to 1 odds we close down -1.7% or more. That’s should get us our 90% DVOL close. Puke guts out Friday off open…and then on green hammer watch.
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I’m going to change my profile, pic and sig line etc. Too many imposters! Real problem on
@twitter
with this now and I don’t like my face and name being associated with scams trying to con people out of money.
Please always look out for
@Norseman1
spelled as you see it here.
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Viking Fund ‘22 is being built now:
Long
$AAPL
$MSFT
$DE
$NUE
$RMBS
$COST
$JBHT
$REGN
$TMHC
$UNH
$ANTM
$ANET
$ODFL
$ACLS
$PSTG
$VRTX
$PKG
$GOOGL
$NEM
$UPRO (scaled down Friday at bell)
$LLY
Short w/:
$SDS (will add more today if no Whaley)
$QID (today on no Whaley)
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16.4% Bulls!
3 straight weeks below 20%!
Bears at 59.4%! That’s the highest reading since 3/5/09(crash lows) which was 70.27%
Wow!
We are going to build a floor.
@MarketTells
15/16 weeks more Bears than Bulls,…and way more.
@AAIISentiment
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Never got the 5 straight days w/losses on $SPX and $COMP. Yesterday was for $DJI. But no 90% DVOL.
Last night & premarket it looked like we were going to finally get 5 straight and 90% DVOL combo. It looked promising to end the first move down.
No dice..and it’s bounce only
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$SPX close = 4348.87 for the week and no signs of selling exhausted.
Large Caps starting to roll now. They are always the last. Smalls did not improve… but actually ended the week w/ small negative divergence as well.
$SPX TIMER-
I believe I now have enough evidence that $SPX will break 4280.
I have too many things too list why. Chart has a decent scratch list in it.
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$SPX 3900 holding closing basis.
Total of four 80UVOL(s) & one 90UVOL on defense of it. There is more to trading 90/90’s than just looking for them as a potential reversal.
What is happening at said very important level? Like I said 3900 is the “it’s a broken market” below it
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Don’t confuse my going back 100% cash as an instant waterfall is due. A bounce is due.
I respect the -10% level broke ( $SPX 4337) closed just made the market less predictable from my vantage point.
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“Market In Correction”…finally! ✅✅
Next up..the final push down w/another 90DVOL. Today’s action just prolongs the inevitable ‼️
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Outflows rhyming with the sentiment. Just need that wash. I don’t see new lows needed on $SPX to do it.
I think we are getting very close now.
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No Fizzy Lifting Drinks found this week/month. So I continue to Watch and Learn.
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$SPX “closed” low weekly & cross of 10W/40W. Expect choppy 1st half of March w/climax into end of the Month. I’ll take sooner & break the 2018 analog tho.
I like 4070 but there is a gap from March ‘21 at 4019.87. When looking for exhaustive move I just want the spike not level
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No $NYSE 90DVOL on the bottom of box. Only running 81 as I type... This means I must revise lower. Back to my original low expected from month+ ago. $SPX 4070 “Closed”. I still think we are close to finally puking it up.
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Started in on the secondary adds here as we continue on to the approach of the 50dma. Looking for $SPX 3985 too hold closing basis…. and then start crawl out of hole this week, early next week at the latest.
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2/ is picking up few more confirms. I will one up everyone targeting 3800.
We hold in this general area (and I like it for a Bear rally if that’s all it is) and then make next leg down this summer.
3339 or less. That’s the Bear Market via Recession target.
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Lowest Bulls in many many years! (I’m going to go dig!) I know right now it’s lower than the entire 2008 Crash! WOW!!
Bears are gonna get burned here!! Mom and Pop are Beared UP on the next 6+ Months!! I’ll be reporting more..
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It’s not my ideal set up although a 90/90 is booked for ST/IT. Bulls must produce a Power Trend next for LT. That requires no early distribution/90DVOL,… i.e. can’t drop below the 21ema for next 8 sessions. It’s defined risk and I’m looking for this FTD to fail ultimately LT.
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2018 w/ IBD Signals and UVOL/DVOL.
90 DVOL has to be negated with 80/80 or 90 UVOL. So note that in the structure.
IBD signals all chopped up. Blown FTD’s when not w/90UVOL
Currently here in 2022 there is not one 90 DVOL session since $NYSE ath. This event has not climaxed.
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Trolls don’t know what to do with this…
Now we watch…$SPX
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NASDAQ COMPOSITE TIMER:
Distribution Day today on what is day 2 after FTD. This is already hinting at a FTD dud. Next task for bears is a close back below 21ema. If so,.. resets power trend count.
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The study by which we triggered a recession last week was grounded in GS’s original work/data. It’s unerring since 1950. Is this time different? Of course it could be…but the odds. It’s always about the odds.
Either they’ve lost sight of it(doubt it), or they wanna hand you
Goldman increase year end $SPX target to 5,600 from 5,200, their 2nd target raise this year.
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I’m not seeing anything on
#fintwit
in regards to $GOOGL this weekend. Which I like!
GOOGL has snuck in a potential “Diamond Reversal Top” w/in a larger rounded top. The earnings really set up the trap.
You saw I did not chase that. I’m licking chops for Gen Buys w/Both hands
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While this is a nice little leg up. No 90 DVOL on way down….AND not even an isolated 90% UVOL here on way up.
It’s going to become all about the next swing low. It always is ..
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No 90/90 reversal,…& I DO NOT trust it long. I’m not talking day trades here…I’m watching the structure for Major positional entries starting to be built.
The 5 straight 90% dive here doesn’t rhyme with Time (end of the month). So if we do go green here… I sit on my hands.
I posted the $SPX 2019 chop w/ 90Down/90Up.
Here is the 2015 series of 90% DVOL w/ 90/90 reversals & 2 sets of 5 straight sessions w/losses.
Prepare for total battle imo..as a bottoming process could be brutal. Below is just the first low in 2015 data. Undercut by 1% in 2016.
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Orderly sell…looking for 5 straight sessions w/losses (today would be 3 and no panic yet is good). That’s Wednesday closed 90% DVOL for 5th. Throw a probe deep Thursday am & leave tail to rip out.
That’s the perfect set-up imo. Market will give us what it wants. I stay alert..
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I’m looking for $SPX to just close green today. That’s all I need. Tomorrow rippy rippy
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Drive-by:
6/24 had a FTD, but not 90/90 combo off recent lows from $SPX 3636.87. Day 2 had Distribution. 95% odds this leg fails as the new bull leg or even a major bear rally now. I cleared out of all longs under performing. $SSO and $QLD positions are flat as of yesterday am.
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For those worried they are going to miss a bottom….
1- Series of 90DVOL into true Bear oversolds
2- 90UVOL(no early distribution)
3- 90UVOL w/FTD combo 4-7 sessions
4- Power Trend triggers
@mwebster1971
5- Price remaining above 21ema & 50dma
6- High % above 200dma before pause
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$DJI IT/LT “TIMER”
Going to be watching very closely for this potential scenario to play out in Price and Time.
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We are still bleeding south w/new swing lows intraday and closed on $DJI $SPX, new closed on $NASDAQ. All this happening w/price below declining 5dma, 21ema, 50dma (flat), 200dma. All time frames trend is down.
We have not exhausted ALL selling in order for new bull to emerge.
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We lose 3900 and especially “how” we lose 3900 it’s 3339. Minimum Recession Target. Price and Time. 🩸⬇️
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If I was bullish, and I’m not YET,… I’d want 90/90 reversal and Price closed above 4300 asap. 5dma right at neck line. I expect this to be a battle zone! Bears are still in charge IT imo. $SPX
Bulls can rip from here w/a 90% UVOL and a FTD next week. I don’t think it sets up
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