Rennie Yang
@MarketTells
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$SPX McClellan Oscillator +54.71 (preliminary), about as high as it gets. Market has taken some big hits following previous readings >54
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97% down volume day for $SPX, third 90% down day in last six sessions. SPX McClellan Oscillator not even close to oversold.
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$VIX down w/ $SPX -1.5% pretty unusual, 16 occurrences since 2000 (none prior). Tends to precede a bounce, unlike the 30 VIX study from Tuesday that has negative implications
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Cumulative NYSE TICK set to close above +100,000 for the third consecutive session. That's only happened one other time - Jan 5 2009. $SPX was down over 10% next two weeks
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AAII - it's not just the super-negative readings over the last couple of weeks but the consistency of the negativity over the past few months. It's been 14/15 weeks w/ more bears! That's LT bullish. Twelve weeks later $SPX higher 52/54 times, avg gain 8%
@Norseman1
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$SPX performance next 1, 2 & 3 months...
1/2 My volume data only goes back to 2011.
@McClellanOsc
generously shared his volume data dating back to December 1968 with me. So with a deep bow to him, here are the times when the market staged back-to-back-to-back 80% upside days since 1968:
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Noteworthy that $SPX down volume exceeded up volume Friday despite the 1% up day. 14 similar occurrences since 2000, most led to a sizable rally over the short-term...
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For only the 12th time in history, NYSE TICK held above zero for the entire first hour of Monday's session. That's consistently led to further upside for $SPX over the next two months. Average gain was 4%...
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Total $SPX component volume 2.18 billion Wednesday, lowest in over two months. Incredibly rare to see a 1% down day on such low volume. Only 6 cases since 1990...
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$SPX working on third consecutive session with zero new 52wk highs. Historically sign of a washout. 10% moves were 21-1 six months later...
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$SPX two lower closes after a 3% down day. 19 occurrences since 1990, two weeks later S&P up only 7 (37%). Avg loss 9%...
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This never occurred prior to 2016. Since then we've seen 20 occurrences, all but one led to a sharply higher $NDX one month later. Average gain 6.5%…
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$VIX closed under 30. If we look for instances when VIX exceeded 30 intraday ahead of the Fed, it would add these four dates to the original note...
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Looking at 1min NYSE TICK data since 2014, I show eight other sessions when TICK held above zero the entire first hour...
Pretty impressive buying pressure today. An hour in, and TICK has not gone negative yet. Traders are seeing the downtrend line break, and piling in.
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$SPX -1.5% pre-Fed announcement hasn't happened in over a decade. Only twelve occurrences since 1990, avg gain next day 1.6%, avg loss 0.3%...
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Spread below -10 indeed a wipeout. $SPX higher eight weeks later every case but one since '87 crash. Avg gain 7.6%...
Investors Intelligence Sentiment Poll:
Bulls: 27.6%
Bears: 40.8%
Lowest Bulls since Feb. 2016! Sentiment is wiped out here. That was the final low in 2016 w/90DVOL/90(w/back to back high 80UVOL) then eight 80UVOL sessions.
Last Week:
Bulls: 30.9%
Bears: 39.3%
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$QQQ below recent low at 358.59 would represent roughly 3% drawdown from Monday. Could be a good spot to start buying if this recent McClellan signal is right...
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A look at short-term $SPY performance when it opens higher after a 3% up day...
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$SPX zero new 52wk highs ystd and so far today. If we hold at zero through tomorrow, only 6th time since 2010 w/ three consecutive zero new highs. Others: 03/24/20 (SPX +14% in 1mo), 12/20/18 (+7% in 1mo), 09/03/15 (+2% in 1mo), 11/25/11 (+9% in 1mo), 8/9/11 (+1% in 1mo)
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Interesting to note with $SPX +1% we haven't seen a single NYSE TICK minute >+1000. If this persists into the close it would point to a down day Tuesday...
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A look at all recent instances when $SPX fell 0.5%+ in the final ten minutes of regular trading hours...
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Since 2015, 8/9 led to a lower $SPX two weeks later. Prior to 2015 almost the complete opposite, with the S&P 3x more likely to rally...
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Watching this one from last Thursday, so far so good. Max DD only 0.5% but still three sessions to go.
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S&P500 finished w/ 31 new highs & 26 new lows. Since 2000, nineteen separate occurrences of 25+ new highs & lows. $SPX 5-14 next week...
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Here's a look at $SPX performance following a 1.5% drop for $TLT on a Monday. Since 2010, S&P up only 32% of the time next day...
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$SPY nice move so far since trading back through today's open. Avg gain from study below (+2.5% from open) suggests more to come
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$SPX adv/dec very strong at 425/75. If S&P finishes w/ <0.5% gain and 400+ advancers would be only fifth time in history. Others: 05/15/17, 03/28/14, 08/20/13, 09/28/10 (FWIW S&P higher 1,2,3 mo later)
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It's been over a decade since we last saw a 2%+ start to options expiration week...
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Our version of $SPX McClellan since Jan 2020. Oscillator has a shot at hitting oversold territory (<-50) for first time since late-January. Need to see roughly 430+ decliners Thursday
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$NDX -1.5% intraday on Fed day, how does it close? Last twenty cases (most recent first): +0.4%, -2.8%, -1.7%, -1.3%, -2.3%, -0.8%, -2.5%, -1.0%, -1.6%, -1.4%, -0.8%, +0.4%, -2.4%, -1.8%, -2.4%, +1.5%, +1.5%, +0.1%, -3.3%, +0.4%. Last time w/ +1% gain was 2002/03
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Buying $SPX after a 2% up day not a great trade short-term. Recent occurrences...
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Sorry everyone, last note was incorrect, rushed it out without double-checking. Corrected table below. Interesting to note $SPX rallies on Fed day were almost all sold the next day...
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@Norseman1
Took a quick look at six down days for Dow & didn't find much. As you said probably better w/ confirmation. Six down weeks for the $SPX is also occurring and is bullish. S&P 9-3 six weeks later since 1970, avg gain 4.5%, avg loss 2%
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Equity curve of buying $SPX after 2% up day and holding two sessions. 2000-present. 50% loss
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$SPX RSI over 80 Monday. If S&P posts a higher close within a week of 80+ RSI, rally tends to persist another week (although often not much more). Close >4740 would be only 8th occurrence since 1990...
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$NDX -1.5% & Naz volume 50-day low: One week out NDX up 2 times, down 10 times. Avg gain 1%, avg loss 4%
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Recently mentioned daily Cumulative NYSE TICK was near a new all-time high. Today it added another +54k pushing it to a new ATH. Positive sign for stocks heading into early November...
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With $SPX -1%, we haven't seen a single NYSE TICK reading below -900 with about 90 minutes to go. That's only occurred six times in history, with five of the six in 2008...
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Starting to overhaul our data section to better highlight certain indicators...
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NASDAQ volume 4.4b Monday, a 50-day low. Always interesting when big selloffs occur on low volume
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At midday, $SPX working on a 99% up volume session. Would be only the tenth occurrence since 2000 (no occurrences before). Positive outlook for the very short-term (2 days later 9-0) and the longer-term (6 months later 9-0, avg gain 15%)...
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Bank Index ($BKX) working on its seventh consecutive down day. Only happened nine other times since inception...
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$SPX down before & after holiday. If down Tuesday also, would be only 10th occurrence since 2000...
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A look at every 2%+ up day for $SPX on first day of month since 1990...
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I measure program activity through S&P500 TICK. When 400/500 $SPX stocks move higher or lower in the same minute it suggests institutions are involved. Historically, it's hard to get that many components to move in same direction. When it does occur it's deemed significant.
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$SPX currently +3% since last Friday's big drop in $TLT. Would be the biggest three-day gain in many years if it holds but suggests the potential for a negative reaction to Fed...
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$NDX close below 12285 will be fourth consecutive session under lower bollinger band. Since 1990, 16 separate occurrences, interesting that 3-day and 3-week returns very similar. When NDX up/down three days later, still usually up/down 3 weeks later...
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@Norseman1
You know what's interesting - take that study he mentioned and invert it, looking for 120+ new 52wk lows instead of highs, it's also bullish looking out twenty sessions! That just triggered today w/ new lows hitting 143
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$AAPL next-day performance when stock hits a 20-day low with a big spike in volume (>3 standard deviations bollinger band)...
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Yesterday's $SPX volume was lowest of 2022. Here's a look at other times S&P500 volume hit an eight-month low (not within three days of a holiday)...
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@stckpkr7000
@Norseman1
Here's the record from 2000-2010. Obviously not as good, but not bad either! Pretty good sign of a washout when it happens
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Sell programs hitting the tape last half-hour, sending $SPX up-dn volume to new lows...
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$AAPL currently trading just north of today's open. Would be a sign of short-term strength if we see a higher close today...
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Big series of buy programs between 3-3:15 ET. Nearly triggered first program cluster since June
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Bullish activity recently in the corporate bond space. High-yield and investment-grade both triggered longer-term buy signals for stocks. IG signal has been particularly good at calling for a higher $SPX six months later (100% accuracy since 2011)...
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$USO +5% last eleven times all led to further gains next two sessions, avg gain +4%. Next eleven cases almost exact opposite, USO 3-11 w/ avg loss of 11%
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With $SPX currently +1.3%, this $VIX study suggests limited upside into Thursday...
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$SPX working on an unprecedented fourth consecutive 'all or nothing' session w/ 400+ advancing issues. Tuesday was only the 12th occurrence of three 400+ advancers...
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420+ decliners today would generate first oversold $SPX McClellan reading (<-50) since January. After first hour here's where we stand...
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Almost did it again, ended w/ 26 NH 24 NL
S&P500 finished w/ 31 new highs & 26 new lows. Since 2000, nineteen separate occurrences of 25+ new highs & lows. $SPX 5-14 next week...
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Third consecutive 95% down volume day for $SPX components. Never before seen, not even during 2008
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Only the sixth occurrence since $SPY inception...
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$SPX component volume 1.76b on Monday, lowest daily volume of 2022
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$SPX working a 99% dn volume day. 15 other 99% days since '05, only 3 marked exact bottom (no lower close next month
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$SPX -0.9% w/ 2:1 positive NYSE breadth? Never happened prior to Friday. SPX -0.5% w/ 2:1 pos breadth happened once (4/28/20)
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@Norseman1
@AAIISentiment
Interesting to note when the bull-bear spread goes below -30, it's usually only 4-5 weeks before the spread goes positive. Sometimes only 1-2 weeks! But in the meantime another 12wk buy signal.
AAII - it's not just the super-negative readings over the last couple of weeks but the consistency of the negativity over the past few months. It's been 14/15 weeks w/ more bears! That's LT bullish. Twelve weeks later $SPX higher 52/54 times, avg gain 8%
@Norseman1
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$NDX outperforming $SPX for the 16th session out of the last 17. Number of other occurrences since 1990: zero
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Pretty rare to see that many new 52-week highs and lows on the same day $SPX
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$BKX approaching a 5% down day. Since 2000, only 17 occurrences of a 3% down day pre-employment report. $SPX quite volatile next two weeks...
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+50k Cumulative $TICK pre-CPI is short-term bullish (we're running around +36k currently). Here's the table from the last occurrence in July...
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Cumulative NYSE TICK trending higher all day, currently at +52,000 with 20 minutes to go. I've plugged in a +51k close in the daily chart below to highlight the new all-time high it would make. (Daily = running summation of EOD readings since '07).
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@Phytolucy
It takes unusually strong & sustained buying to send the McClellan this high. Short-term, market is vulnerable to a pullback. But looking out one quarter, market usually higher as buyers remain active
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The note below was sent out to clients about an hour after Wednesday's close. Get unique research like this and our new $SPX swing trading model (which has been long since Feb 15th). 50% off for the first three months...
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Cumulative NYSE TICK down to -25k at midday. A close below -50,000 would be fourth in a row, has led to rough market over next two days to two weeks...
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We've opened up the program trading/market internals page to the public for the next few weeks. Access via this link... - updates once a minute from 10am-4pm ET
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Gotta go back to 2008 to find the last time $SPX closed up 75bp w/ negative NYSE breadth
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$BKX will close at a fresh 1yr low today below 112.39. Just looking for a 3mo low three days ahead of FOMC only turns up five occurrences since inception. Over next 3 sessions BKX -4.1%, -6.5%, -1.2%, -0.2%, +1.3% (dates: 12/14/18, 08/04/11, 10/30/09, 06/20/08, 04/29/04)
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$RUT +3% last five days, $SPX up <0.5%... Since 2000, S&P returns over next month: -5%, -25%, -5%, +3%, -4%, -5%, -2%, -2%, +10%, -1%, -7%
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