Random Muppet
@MuppetTrading
Followers
2,655
Following
977
Media
750
Statuses
6,237
I'm tweeting for entertainment purposes only. Before you act on any of my tweets, ask yourself - is "Random Muppet said so" really your thesis?
NOT in the GS Elevator
Joined August 2012
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
and more
• 1740239 Tweets
LINGORM PANTENE TRIP
• 639185 Tweets
Bruno Mars
• 569552 Tweets
#ROSÉ_BRUNO_APT
• 305346 Tweets
APT OUT NOW
• 200896 Tweets
Al Smith
• 155025 Tweets
Corinthians
• 132460 Tweets
Flamengo
• 132169 Tweets
Saints
• 93449 Tweets
Yankees
• 91482 Tweets
Schumer
• 75828 Tweets
CONGRATS CL IG1M400K
• 75470 Tweets
#NuNewJapanDebut
• 47173 Tweets
Broncos
• 45542 Tweets
Allan
• 36255 Tweets
NUNEW DEBUT IN JAPAN
• 31388 Tweets
San Marcos
• 30279 Tweets
Lakers
• 28865 Tweets
SB19 PIAYA NG MAYKAPAL
• 26629 Tweets
HOME IS WITH ENHYPEN
• 23418 Tweets
対象作品
• 23354 Tweets
超電ブレイカー
• 20699 Tweets
Dalton Knecht
• 17004 Tweets
Mookie
• 16564 Tweets
Bo Nix
• 16075 Tweets
Hayırlı Cumalar
• 15564 Tweets
Rattler
• 14304 Tweets
ARCARM PRESS TOUR
• 13544 Tweets
ミミッキュ
• 13050 Tweets
集英社秋マンガチャ開催
• 12644 Tweets
Dennis Allen
• 12012 Tweets
フラワー
• 10552 Tweets
This $CRWD take by Brad Zelnick should really be an instant classic.
Imagine being sell-sider wanting to publish $CRWD defend note but cannot hit send because the systems aren't working.
10
6
197
34
176
2K
"To put the 'weight debate' to rest, we consumed 75 like-for-like $CMG burrito bowls in NYC (half in store, half digital, various locations)." - Zachary Fadem and his Wells Fargo team
This is the hard work we'd expect from the sell-side into the final days of II voting.
30
109
2K
Oppenheimer's Chris Kotowski discussing BNPL impact on banks.. or lack of that.. "BNPL is really sub-prime in a new dress, a particularly non–consumer friendly version at that, while the banks' franchises focus on prime"
Fun read.
$AFRM $SQ
#klarna
etc
24
92
394
Imagine being sell-sider wanting to publish $CRWD defend note but cannot hit send because the systems aren't working.
10
6
197
Market: Sell-side, please cut your semi estimates:
John Pitzer: Fck off, I quit!
9
13
170
BofA $OKTA coverage. Thanks for the value add, Madeline!
4
5
150
Open thread.. who are the sell-side sector specialists whose emails you like reading.. I'll start:
Tech
Andrew Rocha, wells
Thomas Wigg, msco
Jordan Klein, mizuho
IMT
Sean Diffley, msco
Mark Schilsky, bernstein
HC
Jared Holz, mizuho
Noah Zurad, ubs
Michael Guba, wells
18
9
102
Semi sell-side analysts:
- we don't see cuts, buy stocks
- we still see no cuts but stocks weak so buy even more stocks
- oops we are seeing cuts but stocks have come in even more so buy stock
- oops more cuts but stock have been weak, buy them
- fuck, guidance cut, downgrade
7
7
66
Very helpful $AMD comment from Northland's Gus Richard. My II vote guaranteed!
8
6
58
MS Tech: Hedge Fund net exposure to the Software
space sits in literally the 0 percentile.
Me: chips without software are vegetables.
3
3
49
True story.. $CRWD @ Deutsche Bank: "Our initial reaction on Friday was seeing a 10%+ pullback in a high-quality stock as a buying opportunity, however, we were ironically unable to publish our original research note due to the outage itself."
5
10
44
@jaksburner
That would be a fun stock game.. show a chart for 2 seconds and have to guess what stock that is
4
0
35
So nobody is bothered about $ENVX 's new "partner" being $40m market cap company? No zeros missing. YBS has $40 million market cap. Somehow they are supposed to finance a fab that costs like $200-$300m?
17
6
36
If there is any logic to what US gvt is trying to achieve, I cannot see how EDA software names $SNPS $CDNS aren't the next ones getting hit with China sales ban. Makes no sense to ban selling AI chips but continue to allow selling software / tools to develop their own.
6
5
35
So, basically what we learned from $NVDA numbers is that $TSM is freaking impressive with their ability to so quickly ramp up supply. And that's pretty much it.
7
1
30
Resi HVAC checks sound horrible - demand faltering, inventories piling up at distris, pricing starting to soften.. $LII looking the worst of the bunch.
But the best name to short imho is $WSO - once they lose the pricing tailwind the numbers going to get ugly..
7
3
30
$RH since "Colossal beat from Best Idea Long".
Colossal beat from Best Idea Long $RH. $3.93 vs $2.65E. Put up better than 20% EBIT margin. But holding the year and taking down 3Q materially. Looks like Gary wants to buy back more stock. I still think the sell side will be upgrading this stock at $500+ over 9-12 months.
19
5
51
4
1
29
Overheard in the Truist office..
"Joel, there are already 50 sell-side analysts covering $MSFT. How does your work differentiate?"
"Well, I am using three-year price target vs everyone else with one-year targets, that will show them!"
3
1
27
$JNPR set its 4Q earnings date last night, meaning no negative pre-announcement this time. This probably bodes extremely well for $AAOI
2
1
2
@CapitalObserver
I don't agree with the rearview mirror. FED needed to bring down inflation expectations too, not just inflation.
Today was relatively fine job by FED in path to correct past mistakes. Not out of the woods of course but one step in right direction.
0
1
27
$NVDA eps day / conf call is the new Friday after hours..
If you want to sneak something by the market, that's the window.
Case in point:
*Supermicro Announces Proposed Offering of $1.5 B of Convertible Senior Notes Due 2029
2
6
25
* $AMZN REPORTS STRONG BEAT ON SPLIT EXPECTATIONS, REPORTING 20-for1 SPLIT, TWICE THE EXPECTATIONS OF 10-for-1 SPLIT
2
3
27
One quote from the Reuters $TMO article stood out to me: "There are multiple issues with the culture of the organization. They are not looking at the long term and have a fix-when-caught mentality versus a culture of prevention," said David Talmage, vice president of education
2
2
27
One of the most successful job application letters.
As a financial advice, less so.
5
3
26
@CheddarFlow
Only reason they are not going with $7700 strike is that those aren't listed yet
4
0
23
First time in a while I see incrementally better DRAM checks, via Cowen semis team..
Not sure if the current downcycle will indeed be shorter and shallower than usual, but all that metaverse does require a shitload of memory..
Not yet ready to call "all clear" for $MU but intg.
3
3
20
$CRM eps previews: "we are cautiously optimistic into the eps"
$CRM eps reviews: "as a reminder, we were cautious into the eps"
3
0
23
Great qtr, semicap guys! Once again all of you gained market share, impressive!
0
0
21
Software sell-side coverage is so stale and stupid. Keep complaining about downward estimate revisions throughout the year - HEY GUYS YOU ARE THE ONES AT FAULT OF THAT.
Cut the fucking estimates already, nobody will notice, stocks will not react to that, simply revise your
7
0
21
Semi excess inventory must have become really bad.. because that's when the fabs usually start burning/drawning/getting hit by power outages etc.. first one is here..
1
1
20
In light of the $CEG Three Mile Island nuclear plant restart, obviously the question is, who else has idle plants..
Wolfe Research had a note yesterday with helpful table - $ETR seems to stand out to me. No idea how realistic it is for them to get them back online but something
3
1
20
$ENVX can basically sell their cells on Etsy because they are hand-crafted apparently..
185 personnel were laid off. All these people were needed to make 24,000 cells in a quarter.
24,000 / 185 persons / 90 days = 1.44 cells / person / day.
6
2
18
$AEHR getting slammed 20% after earnings should really create some worries about $ON as well.. $ON is by far the largest customer for $AEHR - if they are ordering less, I guess their own outlook is less bright as well. Rhymes with SiC lead times coming in as per Susq this week.
4
3
17
@BillAckman
@federalreserve
Hey if you want to fight inflation, you can do your part - dump $CMG position immediately to send a message that they are raising prices too far while reducing portions. Help the people out!
1
0
16
@HedgeyeRetail
Colossol beat? Are you fcking kidding me? Did you even take a slightest glance on the shareholder letter?
2
0
18
Also, we are close enough to the " $OKTA hits 4x EV/sales" levels.
0
0
16
I mean, sure, EPS season takes a toll on all of us.. but seriously, Gus? $ENPH and $ENVX aren't the same companies..
2
2
16
@LeviathanCapit1
Are you sure about that $146.26? I keep trying to model it but just cannot get a penny above $146.24
0
0
14
@EnergyCredit1
I'd say the lack of operating leverage is the nastiest open secret for so many SaaS names. Incremental op margins are so much worse than the generic idealized views of printing money at some point in the future.
2
0
14
Amazing how fintwit barely discussing $MYGN after such horrible reports from
@RodBoydILM
/
@SIRF_Report
and Barclays. GeneSight is a joke and noone can have any trust in the rest of the company either.
0
1
13
*BIG TECH SOFTWARE VENDOR CARAHSOFT RAIDED BY FBI IN VIRGINIA
So what happens $NOW ?
For color, snippet from Bernstein Jule 25 note..
2
2
13
@UpslopeCapital
That's probably accretive to shareholders, paying actual invoices with worthless paper :)
1
0
11
I have turned positive on $CHGG stock. Clearly catching a falling knife in a shaky market isn't for everyone but feel like the risk/reward skews to the upside. No single reason so a little thread:
1
0
11
Fun thing on $STX is that there IS a need for HDD storage. Pricing for nearline storage at cloud providers is absolute insanity, way way too high. 16TB nearline HDD costs.. basically nothing. Try to have that at AWS/Azure/whatever and it becomes massive cost real soon.
1
2
12
*NVIDIA IS SAID TO REACH DEAL TO BUY SOFTWARE STARTUP SHORELINE
This seems to be observability play. So what does it mean for incumbents like $DDOG $DT $NEWR $SPLK $PANW etc? "Validates the market" or "new disruptive force entering the field"?
I would say the latter.
4
0
11
I really enjoy when out of consensus field checks turn out to be exactly correct..
Massive kudos to UBS' Karl Keirstead for nailing $SPLK with his cautious commentary / checks. Always enjoy reading his raw field check commentary.
2
1
11
@MidwestHedgie
You don't call a fish at the poker table fish, you just take the money and smile.
0
0
12
Note that China Smartphone data was out this morning and looks good - sell-side notes on that starting to come in. Here's Wells Fargo for example saying positive read for $SWKS $QRVO $QCOM
I agree with Mizuho's Jordan Klein's pitch of $SWKS $QRVO.. those names are way too washed out + smartphone datapoints improving.
Klein was ahead of the street with strong $MU pitch last week so think people should listen. Better to be ahead of the crowds..
0
0
1
0
2
10
$ROKU sell-off after $NFLX seems ridiculous to me. Yes, their qtr may be bad as well - but that's irrelevant now. $NFLX going ad-supported is what matters. You really think Hastings will waste 1.5-2 years before coming out with ad-supported tier like he said on call?
2
1
10
@WallStCynic
TSLA peer group consists only of TSLA and since TSLA is best in class, it deserves 2x peer group multiple.
So TSLA is always worth 2x TSLA
0
0
11
Predicting a spike in Google searches for "slurry" as investors trying to undestand what $ENTG does
0
1
10
How it started.. and today, how it ended.
I respect the Stifel analyst...he's smart to get on the $PLBY train. But his PT of $52 is too low by a country mile. Gotta thing BIG about the TAIL opportunity here.
Next datapoint will be what PLBY acquires with recently raised cash.
8
5
99
2
0
11
@quantian1
"Our polling excluded the responses that had lolol in any of the fields"*
* completely made up disclosure that actually should be there
0
0
9
Official drink for the $MU eps call. Should be mixed 1-1 with vodka and take a shot every time they say "this time is different".
3
0
11
Morgan Stanley's Asian semi team with some cautious comments on $ON:
1
2
11
$TNDM should be heading back to $70.. while the approval well expected, the story is now de-risked and one of the most exciting med-tech names out there.
0
3
10
@HedgeyeRetail
"See, this is what sets us apart from the Old Wall. We tweet absolute nonsense minutes after earnings release without even looking into the actual press release or shareholder letter. Old Wall is the worst!"
2
0
10
SiC quickly getting crowded.. I think $IFX validating low-cost chinese players in SiC important negative for US players like $ON $WOLF
$IFX signs a SiC material agreement with a Chinese company (TanKeBlue) for 150mm and eventually 200mm wafers.
Infineon has said that they are seeing excellent performance from low-cost suppliers.
$WOLF $STM $ON
6
3
13
1
2
10
$ROP gotta be joking with the Frontline acquisition.. they really think they can improve on something that has been owned by Bravo for 5 years?
Imho they are buying something that really has zero synergies with the overall co. What do industrial guys know about educational mkts?
1
0
10
I am sick and tired of seeing gazillion excuses on why FED should do dovish pivot.
~4% INTEREST RATES ARE PERFECTLY NORMAL!
Need to have a STRONG reason to be below that. Having ZIRP for more than a decade was dumb shit, not normality.
2
1
9
Another day, another weaker $CRWD datapoint, this time via Keybanc VAR survey. More and more starting to look like SP500 add was THE top.
2
3
10
@OptionsHawk
Lower than expected capex by $MSFT likely the trigger for the $ANET put buyer.. largest customer for $ANET
1
3
8
OK I have to admit, $TWLO 's Signal '21 event converted me into a believer.. with the new product combining everything they do/have acquired, this all makes sense now. Good color by Wolfe Research overnight:
0
1
9
Stephens has found interesting nugget in $TTWO 10-K that was posted Friday after close.. has $TTWO pushed out GTA VI timing by a year? At least looks like marketing commitments were pushed out from F23 to F24..
1
0
8
Canaccord's Tony Dwyer: While there can be further financial market uncertainty until the final results of the 2020 election are in, the most powerful person in the world remains the Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
0
1
9
Is the market really gone insane? Now people chasing $DG because they are bringing back the old CEO. The very same CEO who created the current mess by underinvesting for years and creating the most misarable shops imaginable.
5
0
9
Of course $MSFT deal with $CEG to revive Three Mile Island has no direct read for $OKLO etc small reactors.
But.. it does serve as a reminder that with so many billions getting thrown around, someone will open their wallet to make Altman and $OKLO happy as well.
$OKLO situation is fascinating for me. I am totally sympathetic to the bear views (so many years out, questionable economics of SMR's even when they become a reality etc etc)..
That said, it is still an instrument to "get onto
@sama
good list". With billions getting thrown
2
0
5
0
1
9
American eater wins again! Looks like Wells Fargo's $CMG portion size activism has made a difference, at least according to them. Today's update showing less variance in the bowl sizes.
"To put the 'weight debate' to rest, we consumed 75 like-for-like $CMG burrito bowls in NYC (half in store, half digital, various locations)." - Zachary Fadem and his Wells Fargo team
This is the hard work we'd expect from the sell-side into the final days of II voting.
30
109
2K
2
1
9