Brian McGough
@HedgeyeRetail
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Co-founder of Hedgeye with 30 years of experience covering retail. Was Executive Director at Morgan Stanley, ran the consumer franchise at Copper Arch Capital.
Stamford, CT
Joined May 2010
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Did I just see a tweet that Cardi B is the new Creative Director for Playboy? $PLBY
Can't find the tweet now...did someone fat-finger it then delete?
If true, it's HUUUUGE!!!
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Did I just hear
@HedgeyeRetailJM
say that a bull case on $GME from here is pushing $1,000?
Not the call we're making rn, but be careful if you're one of the many institutions calling us saying that it's time to short it on 'valuation'.
GME Black Book TODAY
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Sorry $GME shorts. I tried to get you to go the other way at $14. There's still time to preserve your clients' capital and limit losses. Console cycle alone taking this over $30 -- will be blowing away comps as 2021 progresses. Then the
@ryancohen
turnaround starts to take shape
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$W out with a $600mm convert. You wondered why management was so bullish on 2Q revenue and EBITDA targets? It had to get the stock up. Now you know.
@AlderLaneEggs
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It's both funny and intellectually dishonest that $AMZN perma-bulls claim that 75% of the value is in AWS. And yet, when it implodes (first sub-20% growth rate EVER with margins down 1,100bps) they look the other way and applaud corp cost cuts. Pitiful.
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If one of the Institutional $GME shorts who fired me bc of our long call wanted back in the flow of our research. I'd turn down the money. Full stop.
#Integrity
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$AMZN and $NKE don't buy businesses just bc the stock is down ($PTON). That's not how they do deals. I used to vet deals when I worked at Nike. Not how they roll. At a $10bn val it'd be $1,612/ user. When $UAA overpaid for MapMyFitness it paid $7.50/user.
PTON not 'on sale' here
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Not if it's going to $100...
$GME
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$PLBY -- only $200+ to go before it hits my 10-bager target I laid out for RetailPro subscribers...
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This stock is going to $250...said it before, will say it again.
$PLBY
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This intra-day chart on $PLBY is a beauty! Accelerating...just like the business model.
It's not too late folks...headed to $250 over a TAIL duration.
@HedgeyeRetailJM
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I know nobody cares about fundamentals at $GME...but don't ignore key hires. CTO from AWS. Chief Customer Officer from $CHWY -- the best cust service on the planet -- VP fulfillment from AMZN/WMT.
@HedgeyeRetailJM
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I love it...$GME finally has a down day after ripping the faces off the short community, and now bears are pumping their chests for being right on the day. The catalyst calendar throughout '21 is both bullish and fierce. Short it here...I dare ya...
@HedgeyeRetailJM
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$NKE absolutely bringing the thunder in its 4Q print. Street was at $0.51. We were at $0.79, and said our bias was to the upside. Company launched up a $0.93. This company is unstoppable. Best Idea Long.
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I (McGough) got timing wrong on going long $BYON at $27. Not my team. Gotta stay accountable. Do I still think this is a $70 stock in 2-years? Yep. Would I be buying all day on this whiff? Yep. Expectations just got rebased, and the P&L is grinding higher. Would be nice to see
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Yep...$PLBY just touched its SPAC price. Core Playboy brand being valued at ~$200mm at this price. Ridiculous. Bring it haters...
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Taking $PLBY a notch higher on our Best Idea Long list today. The reality is that the business is getting better, the
#HoneyBirdette
deal was bank, and the stock acts like death. Many ways to get paid here...Buy the damn dips.
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$PLBY renegotiated with their beauty licensing partner to take fragrance, skin care, bath and grooming back in house. That's big...
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Just going through $HELE call notes...most glaring statement "Recession is not included in outlook."
@AlderLaneEggs
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Even on a Saturday night I'm getting hate mail on being long $GME. Bring it!
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I told $PLBY's CFO that I'll get a bunny tattoo when the stock hits my $250 TAIL price target.
Two weeks ago we hosted the mother of all events for the little guy interested in $PLBY. Hedgeye RetailPRO subs got CEO, CMO and CFO all on a one hour video. It was money. Still available to watch if you are a subscriber.
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Redbook Retail Sales Index just went negative for the first time since March 2020. Lower lows... 2Q retail reporting season is gonna be a hot mess.
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This $TGT guide down -- the second in 3-weeks -- isn't just a Target problem. It's an industry-wide retail inventory problem. What a disaster...
@HedgeyeRetailJM
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People wigging out about an 'impossible to model' qtr. $PLBY's smallest of the yr, with no reported nums in 1Q20 to model against. Yest we presented the value of all the current initiatives. Mid-point is $14.7bn market cap. 'Failure' is $5bn cap. Today = $1.5. Buy the damn dip.
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$CPRI just annihilated the consensus. $1.65 vs the Street at $0.98. Even smoked our Street-high $1.25. Best Idea Long. Old Wall's targets are too low.
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...reason for $WMT puke is...wait for it...APPAREL. Synchs perfectly with the short apparel call and 'negative inflation spread' narrative we've had all year. Still more misses/negative preannouncements to come. $RVLV, $DDS, $JWN, $RL, $GIL, $HBI, $GOOS, $OXM, $M, $HNNMY, $URBN
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Keenly aware...Also aware that PLBY is going to show a massive accel in top and bottom line in FY22. I know I'm flat-out wrong today on the stock. I'm a big boy, I can take it. But for people that like multi-year 'double then double again, and double again' stories, $PLBY is it.
Are
@HedgeyeRetail
and
@KeithMcCullough
aware of the documentary series called Secrets of Playboy airing this month on A&E? Can’t be good for the $PLBY brand even though it focuses on Hugh Hefner’s behavior with the young women since the Playboy magazine’s inception.
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I love this
#honeybirdette
deal by $PLBY. Insanely profitable. Int'l exposure. Luxury price pts. Now filled out portfolio with Yandy at the low-end, Playboy at mid, and Birdette at High end. 50% of sales e-comm, with global store/experiential growth plans. Love this name here.
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$PLBY revenue engine is on fire. Odd that EBITDA missed. But EPS smoked... $0.12 vs the Street at -$0.06 and our high on the Street model of +$0.05. Gotta peel back the EBITDA onion, but GAAP earnings ahead of plan on strong revs is never a bad thing...
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What does it tell you about $RH sentiment when the CEO says "the housing market is collapsing at a rate I've never seen" and yet the stock isn't trading down?
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I lived this story before -- like when people called me a moron for round-tripping $RH from $26 to $105 and back again -- until it went to $700.
$PLBY
You're 100% right. I'm accountable for all my calls. I'm my own worst critic. Round trips suck, and market style factors rn for $PLBY are not good. But fundamentals are getting better. This is a multi-year call...gotta have a strong stomach. LT this is a big winner.
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Two Old Wall upgrades this morning on $W. Seriously? I've been short this name since $270 and still think it gets cut in half from here. These firms upgrading are probably jockeying for the equity deal W will have to do at a lower price...
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$PLBY (Best Idea Long) revenue beat, in line with our bullish model. Check. $200k EBITDA miss -- which is nearly meaningless given magnitude and range of estimates.
It's what management says about the outlook that will move the stock from here.
We'll be live-tweeting the call.
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We're going deep tomorrow in a presentation to outline the opportunity for $GME in the next generation of gaming. NFTs, Metaverse, etc...
@HedgeyeRetailJM
going to bring the thunder on GameStop...
"The Anniversary Call"
Open to RetailPro subscribers...
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OnlyFans has gotta be quaking in its boots...$PLBY going to severely disrupt its core business. Today's Dream acquisition is a critical piece of the puzzle to launch CENTERFOLD, which is core to its domination and commercialization of the sexual wellness category. Best Idea Long.
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It's time to bring some hard-hitting analysis back to the $GME debate to justify buying/selling at this price. This thing blew through out PT in just 6 weeks. Moving it to our Long Bias list from Best Ideas list while we sharpen our fundamental pencil.
@HedgeyeRetailJM
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$RH crushes it. The REAL EPS number is $7.21, vs our $7.15, and the Street at $6.48. Solid revs. Raised rev guide for the year. NOT pushing out RH England, which was a risk that did not materialize. Best Idea Long
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$PLBY 2022 guide ahead of Street on both revenue and EBITDA. I think they'll beat that...
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$RH is the ultimate 'Buy on Dips' stock. Newsflash...this is a dip. Buy it...
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$PLBY is officially making the rounds on
#WallStreetBets
Best Idea Long
$250 over TAIL duration...
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So many $PLBY haters on the twittersphere. I love it...that's what makes a market.
Our call for a TAIL-duration $10+bn cap on this PLBY is well on track. Fully quantified in our Black Book that we presented to subscribers.
Doubters are gonna cover at a painfully high price.
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$PLBY sells the private jet...looks like they made a profit on it too. Props to
@plbygroupceo
and team for protecting liquidity and listening to shareholders.
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I respect the Stifel analyst...he's smart to get on the $PLBY train. But his PT of $52 is too low by a country mile. Gotta thing BIG about the TAIL opportunity here.
Next datapoint will be what PLBY acquires with recently raised cash.
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So Canada Goose $GOOS closes its Aspen store -- one of the best cold weather markets in the World, and opens a store in...wait for it...HAWAII! Don't get me wrong, I love HI, probably my favorite place on Earth. But it's 70 degrees there on a bad day. Rent is 3x normal. Probably
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The market's current implied value in $PLBY stock price for CENTERFOLD = $0
Honey Birdette = $0
NFTs = $0
Call options galore here...
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I'd rather jam an icepick in my ear than listen to
@CNBC
's 'expert opinion' about $PTON's future. They were wrong in pumping it at the peak, and they're wrong in defending it after the selloff. Just stick to reporting the news guys...leave the analysis to real professionals.
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My goal w all my big calls like $GME isn't to 'squeeze the shorts' or (w $BBY) 'burn the longs.' Losing money sucks - I wish it upon very few. I go deep in the research process then convert clients over to the money-making side of the call. That's the ultimate
#win
.
#RetailPro
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Hey
#RetailPro
subscribers...I'm feelin a new idea crystalizing...it's been brewing for two months now. I officially have a weekend project to see if I can get you a money-maker for Monday. Anyone game?
@HedgeyeRetailJM
#ChallengeAccepted
Subscribe
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$RH is the most transformational model in all of retail. I've said it since the stock was $30, but if I could only own 1 retail stock over a TAIL duration, RH is the one. This is morphing into a legit global luxury brand with no AMZN risk and no peers.
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The doubling of the $PLBY revenue guide from $300mm to $600mm is all organic. No future M&A embedded in that.
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These $HD comps just look abysmal -- comps -4.5% vs the Street looking for flattish and our -3%. $LOW has more to lose here as it competes with whatever HD is going to do to get people back in the stores. Both are Best Idea Shorts.
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$PLBY management crushed it on our call today. So many growth and margin levers here... Best Idea Long
"The growth opportunities are endless. I put my career on the line for this." - Kohn
@HedgeyeRetail
hosted
@playboy
CEO Ben Kohn, CFO Lance Barton & CMO Rachel Webber.
Watch the interview to learn why $PLBY is a
@Hedgeye
Best Idea Long; get Retail Pro:
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You're 100% right. I'm accountable for all my calls. I'm my own worst critic. Round trips suck, and market style factors rn for $PLBY are not good. But fundamentals are getting better. This is a multi-year call...gotta have a strong stomach. LT this is a big winner.
@spotcrawford
@KeithMcCullough
@HedgeyeRetail
Great. I made good money on RH. When you pump a stock at $52 and it goes back to today's PLBY@$29.8, you own the pump at $52, just like you own the original recommendation at $25. No whining here, just stating facts.
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Word has it that
@Hedgeye
just added $GME -- the most hated stock on the planet -- as a Best Idea Long. Calling for at least a 2-bagger.
@HedgeyeRetailJM
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For those who think things can't get worse in Retail...think again. Redbook sales just hit a re-opening low after creeping higher in prior weeks. Wouldn't be surprised to see this turn negative by the end of May. 2Q Retail Themes deck tomorrow at 12:30ET. Be careful what you own
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This move won't be linear, but its got juice like I haven't seen in any name since $RH -- which we called at $30 -- now at $700). Even a better call than $GME at $14 bc it's got the killer fundy's to match a $250 stock, if not more over a TAIL duration. Buy the damn dips. $PLBY
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Progress this morning at tZERO by $OSTK. This asset currently valued close to nil. Massive call option here for OSTK holders, or a strategic buyer like $HD or $LOW that wants to accelerate digital, home furnishings, and put $W out of business.
@AlderLaneEggs
is right on this one.
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I'm loving these $RH numbers...
Score
RH Bulls = 1
'The Credit Card Data is Horrible" Bears = 0
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Retail sales miss on the same day that Capital One delinquency rate spikes. But don’t worry, the consumer is just fine.
#shortretail
.
@HedgeyeRetailJM
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Friedman gets option-related stock sale out of the way -- in lightning speed. This was an overhang precluding $RH from buying back stock. Now he can put his balance sheet to work and repo the hell out of the stock. Best Idea Long.
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$HELE at $107 is just ludicrous. Even IF you believe the Street's numbers, this should be a $70-$80 stock. Fake non-GAAP, non cash earnings start to mean revert and the spread w GAAP earnings closes. Then this levered dog has a serious problem.
@AlderLaneEggs
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$WEBR on the tape with a horrible 3Q preannouncement. CEO out. Pulls FY guidance. I said it before and will say it again...this equity is worth ZERO. Best Idea Short.
@HedgeyeRetailJM
@KeithMcCullough
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The only place I want to be popular is with my subscribers' P&Ls...
@HedgeyeRetail
If it is like $GME, gonna be fun, and not just from the price appreciation. If I were to guess, I would imagine that by now you must be hugely popular on Reddit
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Massive squeeze on $HELE. Great opportunity to short more. I won't cover this name until it's a $20-$30 stock. CEO leaving a month after CFO left. They see what we see...GAAP and Non-GAAP (ie fake) earnings are going to converge. This company has no more levers. Game over.
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Playboy Rabbitar event tonight in NYC. Gonna be some good tasting opportunities for new Playboy spirits -- yet another business opportunity that's under the radar for investors here. I'm long $PLBY HUGE here. Ecosystem mgmt is building is underappreciated massively.
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Hey Gary $RH...And I know you're reading this, bc your ego is too big NOT to care about what people on X think...don't get on this call and complain about the Fed. The Fed isn't the problem. You're 40% price increase over 4 years is the problem. Fix it. Get your prices sharp,
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Best Idea Long $PLBY is doing its first ever NFT drop TODAY titled “Liquid Summer” with six works done by artist Slimesunday to be auctioned off on the Nifty Gateway NFT platform.
I can get to a $250 per share value, or $10bn cap even without NFTs. Big kicker here...
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Is it me, of did $PLBY just MASSIVELY take up revenue expectations by 2025? Definitely a positive change in messaging there...Thesis Validator.
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I've covered $RH from the IPO -- and have had THE call on it (tho wrong for 1 painful year). This company is executing like I've never seen. It's putting other luxury biz models to shame. Don't bet against when white space meets passion and a plan. RH = $1,200 over TAIL duration.
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$PLBY management confidence in the biz definitely better than the call 13-weeks ago.
While our BIG call on this name is over a TAIL (3-year) duration, the reality is the we're well ahead on a TREND duration as well.
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Best Idea Short $HELE CFO resigning. When you lever up doing deals, can't manufacture any more special charges, and your stock trades at 25x underlying earnings, it's time to 'move closer to family'.
@AlderLaneEggs
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I'm on the clock 24/7. Only $CPRI news is that it is being moved from S&P Small Cap to Mid Cap. Could cause some nt disruption in fund flows, but definitely should be bullish on the margin. On it's way to doubling market cap which puts it in Large Cap. I'm a buyer on weakness.
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So $ULTA CEO is selling $6.3mm in stock while the company is buying stock at the top? Someone explain that to me. Maybe he sees what I see -- a stock with a 2-handle over 18 months.
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Still HUGE bulls on $PLBY. The market hates it, but we're getting more institutional interest on this weakness. The catalyst calendar over the next year is ripe...
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Re-tweeting this again. Most important tweet I've seen all week. Great find by Elad.
Long and strong $PLBY
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Nearly impossible to poke holes in this $CPRI print. Revenue and margins both look outstanding. Guided up the year to $4.50 -- that'll head higher as the year goes on. CPRI will earn better than $5 this year. Stock is an absolute steal here. Best Idea Long
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Short Idea $GIL misses.
Short Idea $LESL misses.
Best Idea Short $RVLV misses.
But don't worry folks...the consumer is doing great.
@KeithMcCullough
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$W out with a massive revenue miss, but guides to positive EBITDA in 2Q. It must be burning the office furniture. Cutting your way to profitability rarely works in retail.
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The 'Lemonis Premium' in $BYON has completely evaporated. That's justifiable based on today's call. But this name traded in the teens when it was a lesser asset with less upside/optionality in owning three banners.
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The wrong C-Level Exec is leaving $PLBY. Super bearish. Barton was/is the right CFO for PLBY. If Kohn doesn't deliver on this mysterious $25mm in 'pro forma' EBITDA, he's out. Win/win, lose/win. But still, this CFO development is a thesis changer for me. Worst call of my career.
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And why we thing $PLBY is a 10-bagger…
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$HD hasn't comped negative in 12 years.
#boom
. It's not too late to short this name. More top line decline to come at a time where the company is investing heavily in SG&A (doing the right thing, but it will still hurt margins). Best Idea Short
@HedgeyeRetailJM
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You gotta love
@DiMartinoBooth
.
"THE FEDERAL RESERVE WAS THE TREASURY'S B*TCH" 🔥🔥🔥
On Day 2 of the Hedgeye Investing Summit, Danielle
@DiMartinoBooth
dropped the TRUTH BOMBS Wall Street doesn't want you to hear...
💣"After the pandemic, you gave people the money directly, and they spent it directly. That's
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$ULTA, Best Idea Short, the co that NEVER misses a qtr (and blew away nums every qtr for 2 yrs by a country mile), just put up a miss. $6.74 vs Street at $6.82. Exit rate in this quarter looked terrible, and the stock not priced for it. I still think numbers here are too high.
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Absolute blow out quarter by Best Idea Long $RH. But guide down the year's revs...while Gary gives a $2bn finger to the Street with enough repo authorization to buy back ~60% of the adjusted float. He's gonna do it...FAST!
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you have a problem with vibrating butt plugs?
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@KeithMcCullough
I wish you could hear this $RH call. Friedman bringing it w Macro Process. Talking about mkt vol, bad fed decisions, unreal in inflation, Yellen/Powell gaffes, and how it leads him to plan biz and chg status quo. A rarity to find a CEO that actually 'does Macro'
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Why bother? Only a $29 target? C'mon man... The analyst is TOTALLY missing the big picture and the ecosystem that the team is building around the brand(s) -- and how the economics will flow over a TREND and TAIL duration. $PLBY Best Idea Long. Ultimately a $10bn EV.
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Best Idea Short $ULTA getting smoked. The company is presenting at JPM this morning and doing 1 on 1s. They're obviously whispering bad news to those who paid for access. Makes me sick how this is tolerated
@KeithMcCullough
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I'm liking what I see from this $DUFRY print. Was facing some severe investor pushback that the co would miss rev big and take down the year. But revs roughly in-line, FY intact. Sequential improvement in revs, and cost cuts WAY ahead of plan. Best Idea Long.
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I know I've been dead wrong this year on $PLBY -- I'm accountable to that call -- but am sticking with it for MANY reasons. The Old Wall downgrade this am is senseless. And downgrading $BIRD here? C'mon man...! I'm a buyer of both...
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$5-$6 in EPS power is going to come sooner than people expect for $CPRI. Old Wall won't see it until it smacks them in the face.
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Just worked on an earnings model for the past 2hrs over 5 cups of coffee. Had a major 'a-ha' moment. Thesis changer. BIG one. Writing the research now...stay tuned...
@HedgeyeRetailJM
#RetailPro
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I don't think I've ever been more bullish on $AMZN in my career. Lesser companies ease off investing in SG&A and capex when business slows. AMZN is stepping on the accelerator. That's what GREAT companies do. Setting up for outstanding 2022.
@HedgeyeRetailJM
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