Michigan Value Investor
@Michigan_Value
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$ATKR spun from Tyco 2010. Crapco then. CD&R put DHR vet as CEO. Big changes made. Public 2015, EBITDA/sh $2.61, grew at 28% CAGR through 2019. Windfall 2021-2024. 2022 EBITDA $1450M, half windfall! 2025 EBITDA/sh ~$30, zero windfall. 10yr EBITDA/sh CAGR ~27%. Moat. Moat. Moat.
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$HROW bbg Iheezo Q2 data up 2.65x from Q1. Question for any of the shorts out there: 165% growth in a quarter, not annualized... is that considered good? ;-)
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$HROW Vevye is ramping 20% faster than Miebo where HROW actually has a sales rep. Most people think Miebo is a slam dunk 1B+ drug, and I agree. HROW revenue in 2024 is $180M, and HROW's market cap is $625M. HROW is too small to have enough reps, but this is changing...
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$HROW May IQVIA data is out for Veyve. Two questions: First, who here had 37% MoM growth in their model? And second, is that considered good? ;-)
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New article from yours truly on $HROW:
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$HROW announced 3e successfully manufactured. Some are confused, referring to an outdated 86k units sold in 2018 and $180 price, or $15M revenue. But... the price is now $944, and there are now 400k US vitrectomies. 3e is the only drug indicated on label, and it has a J-code...
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$HROW 2025 revenue likely > $400M. But they won't, and shouldn't, guide to $400M. Guidance is a silly activity that needs to be properly handled if it's done at all. Buffett famously doesn't like guidance, and he's right... yeah, real brave of me to agree with Buffett, I know ;-)
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$HROW is "initiating... discussions with strategic accounts to pre‑order... TRIESENCE."
3e, Iheezo customers overlap. Giant buyers have to meet with them if they want 3e - ofc they all do - an incredible sales opportunity for Iheezo. Iheezo TAM 20x 3e TAM.
You're welcome! ;-)
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$HROW Vevye Rx up 50% in June vs April, up ~2.5k/month. Pace => $11.4M Dec 25. This is with 35 reps compare to 300 Miebo at BLCO - hiring more now - also no Medicare coverage yet. Likely they get that 1H 25.
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$ATKR = deep moat. Midwits think it's a crapco that got lucky on PVC pricing. PVC pricing was lucky, and is ending. Everyone agrees on that. The Jedi are right about the moat though. The midwits don't even know what moat the Jedi are claiming. Well, maybe now they do ;-)
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$HROW expanding Vevye its sales force by what looks to be ~33%. This is great news and will facilitate even more rapid growth. IQVIA data for April shows Vevye at a 1.9% DED Rx share after only 3 months, but most territories have no reps. DED a $20B TAM, HROW $650M market cap
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$HROW reading off a chart but Vevye Rx data from IQVIA looks up about 20% in June over May. Is 20% growth in a month considered good?
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Easiest moat to see is Oligopoly. Exited some lines, rolled up industry in others. Either one or two large competitors across most SKUs. Moat.
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Just posted a new $HROW article. Damn, I'm good ;-)
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$HROW has grown from $10M revenue in 2015 to $180M guidance in 2024. Guidance for 2027 is $1B, and imho $2B in 2029. In January 2018 share price was under $2, now $21, heading for $200 in 2027, and then up from there. If this doesn't excite you, you're not awake.
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$ATKR will benefit from the huge increase in spending on data centers, 2x in 2025 v 2024. Data centers = best customers. I could write an article as a "picks and shovels" play on AI if I wanted to... 8 PE, EPS CAGR of 20% for as far as the eye can see, leverage < 0.4x
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Is it just me or are the objections on $HROW starting to sound a bit desperate? How many times does one have to be wrong before one starts to question the bear thesis?
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Also low cost provider. Shipping is a big part of expense here. $ATKR has the most product breadth - single order, single delivery. Shortest supply lines. Lowest cost, fastest and most reliable delivery. Moat.
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Question for anyone short $HROW. Why did Greg DiPasquale leave Regeneron, where he was NBD for Eylea, a $6B drug, to lead the Iheezo/3e team at $180M revenue HROW?
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$AMZN will spend $100B on data centers for their cloud business. Will AMZN and others pay one one thousandth more to avoid supply risk and gain efficiency of fast delivery/single order? $ATKR EBITDA margin up 3 points for each 1/1000 customers are willing to spend. Moat.
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$HROW Vevye Rx > Cequa in territories where HROW has deployed a sales rep, 4 months after launch. 35 reps now, heading to maybe 200? The math is inexorable.
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Competitors let customers down during supply chain crisis. $ATKR was reliable. Products are essential and cost 2-3% of build. W/O them, customers have idle workers. ATKR now preferred supplier to major cost insensitive customers. Moat.
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$BCLO and $HROW clinical trial data. Adverse events profile: Xiidra 51.7%, Miebo 11.4%, Vevye 10.2%. Efficacy data also superior for the SA drugs, Miebo & Vevye. How obvious is it that drugs that work faster and better and don't hurt to use will win market share?
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Seeking Alpha must have liked my recent $HROW article?
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3e requires zero marketing, demand is already there. Look for $1/sh incremental FCF in 2024, $2 in 2025, and $3-$4 in a few years. 3e likely worth $20/sh all by itself. Rest of the company is free. This will be obvious to everyone someday guys
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Others are confused on the patent expiration in 2029. 3e is super hard to manufacture. No way a generic is going to jump in at a low price in 2030. Short thesis seemed to be 3e is too hard to ever manufacture, but in 2029 a generic will manufacture it for a low price? Puh. Lease.
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Do the math guys. Demand is multiple hundreds of $M. Supply will be constrained to perhaps $100M to $150M for a while though, starting in 2025, with perhaps $50M in 2024.
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$HROW hiring more Vevye reps. It means either they are hitting their ASP target for Vevye, or they are generating a ton of EBITDA outside of Vevye and can subsidize an investment in more reps for that reason. There's no way this isn't good news.
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@valador83
Your reasoning is impeccable. I stand corrected and am forever in your debt. Alternatively, there is a deep moat at ATKR and I saw that a few years ago and am sitting on 6x returns. Got the same pushback then, too. Lively discussions with someone short $ATKR... good times.
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Is it obvious that $HROW would be cheap even if Vevye were their only product and they were losing money as they ramp it up? That would be obvious, right?
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Something like 5% of political ad spending winds up as pre-tax FCF at $NXST. Who thinks political ad spending will do well this year? And who thinks political ad spending is going to grow - every other year ofc - from here?
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Plenty of you know how important it is, and how hard it is, for a small company to even get a meeting with a giant buyer. For those that don't, well, ask a friend. Anyway, this free pass to meet with giant Iheezo prospects may be more valuable than the ~$100M 3e EBITDA itself.
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Let's think this through. Pretty frickin' obvious that the value of Miebo >> Xiidra. BLCO paid $1.75B for Xiidra. $HROW EV is $965M. Vevye prolly worth ~ Miebo. How long before everyone looks back and agrees Vevye alone is worth more than HROW?
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EBITDA/share is up 10x in 10 years since they went public on 2025 non-windfall numbers, including 2.6x in the first 4 years before the windfall. Nothing new, just more of the same coming.
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And the clinical trial data that doesn't suck? Well, there are two, and they are both SA drugs, both developed by Novaliq and licensed in the US. Miebo to $BCLO and Vevye to $HROW. The data are not hard to read. I am a scientist, but you don't have to be one to read these.
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$BLCO showing with Miebo what a semiflourinated alkane DED drug can do, now guiding to well over $500M. No reason $HROW can't replicate this with Vevye, the only other SA DED drug, launched 6mos later. Miebo 300 reps, Vevye only 35, headed to 50. But as that sales force grows...
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But if it's absolutely necessary to guide, the right way to do it is to guide conservatively, so the odds of beating are high and the odds of missing are low. And the only way to do that is to guide to a number that's less than the number management actually expects.
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The exception was that they missed guidance last year. Even then they grew 46% YOY instead of 52%, which was the low end of guidance. And that's the best evidence bears have. That's it. Nothing else. Everything else that can be tested has gone the way of the bulls.
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@LionsWatson
I may write it up again on SA. Here's the first article, a bit dated, but maybe a place to start:
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Hiring Vevye reps is great news for EBITDA and FCF in 2025 and beyond, but a negative in 2024. A loss leader, as I said.
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@Biomaven
$400M seems a bit high. Net revenue likely 75% WAC, so $700 per unit. Demand clearly in excess of $200M and I'd believe $300M. Supply limited to maybe half that for a few years though
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The conditions under which they would do that include a higher ASP for Vevye - more insurance coverage - or more EBITDA coming in from other sources. They were quite clear about this. New Vevye hiring is very, very good news for $HROW
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company over-earned for a while due to PVC windfall, which is ending. Midwits think the Jedi don't know about this.
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The only problem is that hiring reps is a loss leader. $HROW wants to be FCF positive during the growth phase despite the inevitable cash burn in the early stages of a new drug launch. And they want enough EBITDA to meet their leverage target of under 4x for 2024.
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@elonmusk
What is the point of posting this? You know we all have google and can try it for ourselves, right?
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Midwits think $ATKR doesn't have a moat bc it sells mostly commodity products. $COST sells mostly commodity products. Does $COST have a moat?
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In territories where they have a rep, Vevye share in April exceeds that of Cequa's 4.6%. Again, IQVIA data. That's a faster pace of adoption than Miebo btw, where they actually have a rep, despite the fact that they don't have a large advertising budget like $BLCO.
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Meanwhile Xiidra sucks, and BLCO is lowering guidance there. BC Xiidra is not an SA drug. And we all knew this already, right? There's clinical trial data. Xiidra data sucks. Restasis data sucks, same with Cequa, and all the other DED drug data for everything except the SAs.
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@FishtownCap
I'm not comparing them. I'm pointing out that a company can sell commodities and also have a moat.
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As a scientist, I simply note the results and report them. Investors love management that lies to them. For those who insist on truth, there is a way to be honest and conservative. Pick a number that's too low, and say you will get that much or more. That's what $HROW should do.
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I certainly field a lot of skeptical questions about the bull thesis. And so far, with one exception, the bull thesis has met every test.
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But what I don't understand is this. Why not just join the winning team? It's a serious question. What is it about the psychology of human misjudgment that causes people to stick with the wrong answer after the facts come in?
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The way that's accomplished, usually, is to lie. Investors love that. Investors should ask themselves if there's a "conservative" management that always seems to make or beat and never misses, and then ask if that gives them warm feelings about that management team...
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But there is a way to guide without lying. And that way is is pick a number well below what management actually expects, and then offer guidance of at least that number. That way one can guide both truthfully and conservatively. And that's exactly what $HROW should do for 2025.
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Hard to fathom why. Even with the guidance reduction, growth was still stellar and it's not like they were burning cash. And the stock is up 2x from there, but there's also been a ton of good news, and once again, what's the logic for being short at this point?
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Not that I'm complaining. Their foolishness is my profit, and I'm up 4x in two years and obviously heading for a lot more. No complaints here.
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The idea that one would be short $HROW on purpose at this point is just weird, Ofc I was saying that at $8 too. ok, they lowered guidance, some longs bailed, you can close your shorts and be a winner. Congratulations to those shorts! And yet, they stuck around for some reason!
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@Fond_Investor
no opinion on PVC, except that it's the wrong thing to be looking at. And of course gets the most attention.
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Then get real about how that management team is able to do that. They are lying. That's how. For most investors, they love to be lied to, and they admire companies that do it. Psychology of human misjudgment on full display here, front and center.
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Vevye up and to the right, and which short had Iheezo month over month growth penciled in at 30% in May? It's just so odd to me.
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