Kyle Saunders
@KyleLSaunders
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Professor of Political Science (behavior/polpsych/parties/elections/policy) and NCAA Faculty Athletics Representative @ColoradoStateU #firstgen #GoRams
Fort Collins, CO
Joined April 2008
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Pinned Tweet
Our (w/
@itserinfitz
) latest work at Public Opinion Quarterly
@AAPOR
) is out for your coffee read!
"Distrusting the Process: Electoral Trust, Operational Ideology, and Nonvoting Political Participation in the 2020 American Electorate"
The abstract:
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This presser going to be a Rorschach test that doesn't lead to definitive action on its own.
The problem is that this isn't fatality bad, it's just not that good either. Right in that no win zone.
Exactly what the Ds did not need.
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@asymmetricinfo
Sure, they could, but the GOP is still suffering from being a weak party in early '16 when they could have cleared Trump out of the field (many party elites wanted it), but didn't because he was making in-roads w/ the white working class.
Since then they've only gotten weaker.
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This result is where
@ColoGOP
is now in Colorado & it's completely in line with my assessment from years ago that Trump's '16 nomination/election would do generational damage to the COGOP because of how educated the state is--a demographic DJT does poorly with. (1/2)
#copolitics
Colorado's GOP primary voters handed an utter humiliation to party chairman Dave Williams and the party's hand-picked candidates. Williams lost his CO-5 GOP primary by -33%.
@ColoGOP
lost on 15 of 19 endorsements in contested primaries, by an average margin of -28%.
#copolitics
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@ikuziemko
So many "nopes" here, but probably the biggest nope is at step 3b, Whitmer (and any other choice, not just her) gets blocked in the Republican controlled House of Representatives.
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I just published a new paper with my excellent colleagues Adam Enders,
@CFarhart
,
@PoliPsyProf
,
@JoeUscinski
and
@HDrochon
; it's called "Are Republicans and Conservatives More Likely to Believe Conspiracy Theories?"
Link () and summary to follow...
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Good morning colleagues. Our department (
@CSUPoliSci
) is hiring in American Politics/Political Communication. App deadline is 9/8. Tell your friends.
Here's the APSA eJobs listing:
Or direct to CSU:
Happy to answer questions.
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One thing I have learned about American politics over my 30+ years of studying it intently:
Never, ever, ever assume that it can't get any worse.
Ever.
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(For those of you not on the GeriatricBook): my friend, colleague, and co-author Scott McClurg has lost his long-drawn and difficult fight against cancer.
He is one of the strongest, most inspirational people I've had the privilege of knowing. His memory will always inspire a
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Allen Lichtman is widely regarded as an unrigorous charlatan in my discipline.
C'mon
@CNN
, be better.
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Once more, for the people in the back: it’s either Biden or Harris or chaos. Those are your choices if you're the Ds.
Short version of why:
-The DNC delegates are freed up by Biden stepping aside, but if he does so (and it's a BIG IF STILL) politically he and the Ds are locked
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In 2024, the CO Rs will likely keep three districts this year (3, 4, & 5), but that's it.
No statewide offices. No statehouse control. No real prospects on the bench. No apparent ability to adapt.
I'd argue that while Trump leads GOP, this is their *ceiling*.
#copolitics
(3/x)
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Finally, some will point to
#copolitics
demographic changes that have helped the Ds over this period--sure that is a part of the story!
But Trump turns off educated voters & especially for statewide elections, that means that unaffiliated voters have broken D. Hard to undo!
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Congratulations Chris! Well earned.
@cbwlezien
Congratulations to
@CBWlezien
, just elected to the American Academy of Arts & Sciences!!
@americanacad
@UTAustin
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And...well...VP Harris has pulled ahead of the sitting POTUS in the eyes of the bettors for the Democratic Party's nomination for president.
An earthquake of a week folks.
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Manuscript (that was already conditionally accepted, but is now accepted-accepted) accepted! (cc:
@itserinfitz
).
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Subtweet: Instead of tweeting, some/many of you should probably take a breath and read this article of ours, which demonstrates that, when it comes to political conspiracies across the spectrum, identifiers on both sides engage in conspiracy theorizing.
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Gotta be Mitt Romney, right?
🚨
#BREAKINGNEWS
There is a scheduled gap in tonight's DNC schedule that the special guest is only known by a handful of people. 🚨
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This is absolutely beyond the pale,
@SenWarren
.
It is sad how far you have devolved from being a beacon of hope inside the Democratic Party to this low point--it's not just this travesty, but your behavior/stances on many other important issues of the day are an embarrassment.
I know we should just expect brazen cynicism from her but it really is remarkable that Warren who brands herself a champion for women is defending Gruenberg who presided over a culture of rampant sexual harassment
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New published piece of ours in Nature's
@SciReports
, with
@itserinfitz
,
@decustecu
, and
@matthewhitt
(a 🧵):
We use a Prospect Theory-style experiment to test whether numeracy + need for cognition moderate framing effects re: the May 2023 debt ceiling debates in Congress. (1/8)
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Many are coming to understand how "resistance money" is a neutral tool that can help many who are vulnerable to financial censorship.
I think who uses it/who benefits from it is going to be a big question of the coming age, and I find it fascinating.
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I will be teaching my 31st offering of my Parties and Elections course this fall.
It'll be my 7th presidential general election semester, which of course, is always right in the heart of the storm.
Anyway, your thoughts, prayers, & most definitely your vibes, are appreciated.
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@Ivelongui
It is not without its risks, but I would argue that a vibrant candidate like Harris who can actively campaign for 16 hours a day, sure she might not win the presidential election (though I think KH will run as well as Biden would have net-net)-but she will help Ds down
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(cc:
@itserinfitz
)
Our soon-to-be-out article, coming soon to a Public Opinion Quarterly volume near you, might have something to say about all this...
Trump Claims 2024 Election Will Be Rigged, Putting Republican Turnout At Risk - WSJ
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Just lol. Why anyone listens to this dude's unrigorous, vibe-laden rants when he clearly doesn't squadoosh about anything in political science--well, it's a mystery.
That's not how this works, simply because if Biden resigns, the House and Senate must approve the new VP by
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For those of you on the outside looking in, here's the evidence: After 2014,
#copolitics
had a D Gov but some Rs in statewide office, a 4R-3D congressional delegation, 18R-17D CO S Sen, and a 34D-31R CO S House. Things were tight and contested. (2/x)
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This is all George McGovern's fault, by the way.
Get out the cigars, smoke up the room, RE-make the decision, and get this thing over with.
Shorter: we need stronger political parties, not weaker ones.
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I don't have the words to articulate how sad this is making me.
My heart aches tonight.
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Gotta call 'em as I see 'em, sir.
I just imposed a series of tariffs on goods made in China:
25% on steel and aluminum,
50% on semiconductors,
100% on EVs,
And 50% on solar panels.
China is determined to dominate these industries.
I'm determined to ensure America leads the world in them.
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I have every confidence that Nancy Pelosi can beat Hunter and Jill Biden in a game of chess.
I'll say it again: never, ever, bet against Nancy Pelosi.
Tara Palmeri: "Hunter is dug in, I'm told"
Alex Thompson: "That is my understanding"
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Just imagine how different the world would look today if the Republican Party had "been a stronger party" in 2016.
Many party organization/elites did not want Trump to be their candidate, but the RNC were unable to act... (1/x)
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This is not going to just go away, people.
It is apparent that this is all we will talk about until a decision is definitively RE-made by the Ds.
The door has been opened. That's a hard thing.
We all saw what we saw--gaslighting your way through this will not suffice.
Biden
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@ezraklein
I missed you on here Ez. Welcome back.
But
@ezraklein
's right. The uncertainty in this middle ground is the worst place the Ds can be.
Nomination processes, whether a smoke filled room or an open primary process, is supposed to leave its adherents with a definitive decision on
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With Schiff’s call for Biden to step aside we are at 2 D senators and 21 D MoCs by my count.
I’m watching for 8-10 D senators and around 50 MoCs for this thing to cascade.
A ways to go. Still more likely he stays than goes even with that latest
@AP
NORC data…
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I find this to be one of the most rigorous & insightful books that I have ever read (on a topic (
#bitcoin
) that most in academia will (imho wrongly) dismiss out of hand).
Kudos to Professors
@resistancemoney
,
@rettlerb
, &
@craigwarmke
.
Pre-order here:
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Congratulations to my friends,
@resistancemoney
,
@rettlerb
,
@craigwarmke
, on the release of their excellent new book today.
I have read it, and it is a novel, rigorous, yet accessible, and very much a compelling read.
Resistance Money: A Philosophical Case for Bitcoin
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@leedrutman
I buy it but it's bad strategy-why?
It will take a crucial mass for Biden to not run. The slower that happens, the worse off for the Ds and the further they are from coming to a definitive decision about their nominee, which is the entire goal of this now uncertain process.
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@Tyler_A_Harper
Simply because if Biden resigns, the House and Senate must confirm the new VP by majority vote, and so I can see scenarios where either a vote isn't brought to the floor--result de facto VP Johnson, or a vote is taken--result, not passed, de facto VP Johnson.
Besides Johnson
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I am very excited to have
@kthorson
joining us here
@ColoradoStateU
. Many congratulations Dr. Thorson!
Many thanks also to
@MKUnderwood01
for your leadership on this search.
We have very good leadership (including
@CSUAmyParsons
!) at this institution. Let's do this.
#GoRams
Yesterday, we announced that Dr. Kjerstin Thorson, an accomplished scholar and visionary leader from Michigan State University, will begin serving as our next Dean of the College of Liberal Arts starting 8/1.
Congrats, Dr. Thorson!
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@JasonPLowery
@lopp
@gladstein
The link should have been in your bio from day one if you actually wanted to contribute to the intellectual discourse on this matter. Instead you wanted the money.
That's all I needed to see to understand both your motivations & your character. Thanks for showing us who you are.
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@AllanLichtman
Just lol. Why anyone listens to this dude's unrigorous, vibe-laden rants when he clearly doesn't squadoosh about anything in political science--well, it's a mystery.
That's not how this works, simply because if Biden resigns, the House and Senate must approve the new VP by
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Manchin gives someone for Harris to “beat” in a “contest” and nothing more.
I doubt anything comes of this, but it’s very likely not a bad thing for Harris anyway!
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It’s the right move.
It may not lead to Ds regaining the presidency but down ballot has a better chance now with whoever ends up the nominee engaging a vibrant campaign.
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CC:
@JoeUscinski
@CFarhart
@PoliPsyProf
@HDrochon
(and the X-less Adam Enders).
Really happy to see this one of ours getting a bit of traction--it's a very important set of findings!
Leftists and conservatives are both prone to conspiracy theories; they just prefer different ones.
>0 = more common among conservatives
<0 = more common among lefties
0 = equally common on both sides
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I've been blocked by Lichtman (likely because I've been so critical of him these last couple of weeks),
@ronaldklain
, but if this is true--and I really hope it's not--then, Ron, my friend, then I worry you have fallen prey to someone you probably shouldn't pay much attention to.
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You're never the same after your mom is gone, that much I have learned.
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I can't tag Lichtman since he blocked me, but this had to get posted.
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Not an easy thing this, especially in this moment.
When half of your side isn’t on your side, there is a problem to address--one way or another.
At best these numbers, if they last, will be a challenge to mobilization efforts that will require definitive party consideration.
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Whether it was part of the strategy or not, Biden waiting to step aside until Trump had picked, and picked badly in Vance, is going to be one of the biggest choices of this cycle—again purposeful or not.
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lord give me the confidence of a congressperson in a D+20 congressional district or an economist measuring feelings.
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So, as
@Peter_Turchin
's overproduced elites immiserate culture, start the fire with all the fuel that late postmodernism has given us via its epistemological relativism, ontological irrationalism, ethical nihilism, aesthetic populism, and political pessimism, let us look forward
35% of American elites (people with postgraduate degrees, earn $150K+ per year, and live in large cities) say they would rather cheat than lose an election compared with only 7% of ordinary voters.
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It would be pretty great if just a few of the academics on this here bird app would self-administer the dark triad/tetrad instrument and then sit and reflect while considering how what is in those results has affected their careers and how they handle themselves in public.
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Another thanks and cheers to
@SteveStuWill
for mentioning our (cc: Enders,
@cfarhart
,
@PoliPsyProf
,
@JoeUscinski
,
@HDrochon
and myself) work in
@PolBehavior
. The full paper (no paywall) can be found here:
Leftists and conservatives are both prone to conspiracy theories; they just prefer different ones.
>0 = more common among conservatives
<0 = more common among lefties
0 = equally common on both sides
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American politics is playing out the plot line of The Fifth Element: both sides continue to try to destroy the evil entity because each thinks it's the correct move, just making it stronger & stronger until it consumes us all.
Worse, we don't really have the stones to fix it.
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@MattGlassman312
I agree with this, Matt. I think if there's any way Biden can make it 'til November, they're going to explore it, simply because the Rs control the House, and there's very little guarantee that they'll validate the Harris/D VP choice to replace him.
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Gaslighting, even in the name of preserving democracy, is always going to lead us down a dark path of authoritarianism.
We should not normalize gaslighting from either side.
We must be better than this.
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He has no shot, but that was an interesting Kennedy ad.
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So, here's some questions about the logistics and mechanics of the "mini-primary" idea as I am tossing it around in my head:
1. So, um, the DNC pays for it?
2. How are we counting the votes? Is electronic voting possible? (Doubtful, but an interesting ponder.)
3. Do states
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There are moments that require a single decision maker, and they happen every single day.
We are supposed to have democratic accountability for that single decision maker, not for a team of handlers. The presidency is the ONLY officeholder in the American system who
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Sure, they could, but the GOP is still suffering from being a weak party in early '16 when they could have cleared Trump out of the field (many party elites wanted it), but didn't because he was making in-roads w/ the white working class.
Since then they've only gotten weaker.
Republicans mad about the unfairness of Democrats swapping in a new candidate at the last minute whom they hadn't prepared to campaign against--you know, you could turn the tables, pull the same stunt, and even the odds again ...
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These...these are the data that will decide the 2024 election right here folks. Get 'em while they're hot.
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The NYT leak about the "ally," and well, that's about it folks. Harris ascending, Biden falling.
This would have taken weeks to play out in previous races...but in this era? Poof.
Amazing earthquake of a week in American politics.
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@NateSilver538
Please don't call Lichtman a social scientist. He's an interpretivist humanist who states unfalsifiable horseshit and then sells it to people who need his narrative to justify their beliefs. Worse than a charlatan.
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Your now daily Allan Lichtman PSA:
Don't. He's a joke.
Unless you really dig vibes, vibes, and more vibes all the way down the unrigorous, interpretivist rabbit hole.
And if that's you, well, you're already lost. That includes any network like
@CNN
that gives that fool
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Not an easy thing this, especially in this moment.
When half of your side isn’t on your side, there is a problem to address--one way or another.
At best these numbers, if they last, will be a challenge to mobilization efforts that will require definitive party consideration.
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It doesn't happen very often, but when I review a paper that is just exceptional in the first round, I have feelings like a) am I missing something? or b) jealousy that someone does what I do this well.
But seriously, author-who-shall-remain-anonymous-for-a-while-yet, good job!
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If everyone could stop trying to gaslight everyone else, that would be great.
Thanks.
--The Management
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Wow. The Trump campaign must be absolutely scared by whatever it is that they're seeing to make these moves.
And after this presser today...well, I am not sure he's up to it.
TRUMP says they've agreed for the following debates:
Fox Sept 4
NBC Sept 10
ABC Sept 25
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been trying to make this case for years...
It’s possible to shorten the work week without losing productivity.
4-day week pilot for 15 months w/full pay:
-Performance improved or sustained on 22/24 measures
-Motivation & mental health climbed
-Turnover dropped by 39%
It's better to have 4 focused days than 5 distracted.
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And one of my stock lines in my parties and elections class was for many years, "never, ever, bet against
@SpeakerPelosi
."
I wouldn't start betting against her now.
Nancy Pelosi is on a single-minded mission to maximize Democrats’ odds of beating Trump in 2024 even if the effort to do so has other costs or downside risks.
It’s something many Democrats have spent years saying the party should do, but few have actually done.
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It is not without its risks, but I would argue that a vibrant candidate like Harris who can actively campaign for 16 hours a day, sure she might not win the presidential election (though I think KH will run as well as Biden would have net-net)-but she will help Ds down
Is there any political scientist out there who thinks replacing the Democratic ticket is a good idea?
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Always be appreciative of an event or stimulus that stirs you and incentivizes to raise your game. Always.
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3. Finding 1: we find that the correlation between conspiracy theory beliefs and partisanship/ideology is dependent on which conspiracy theory we are looking at. Here are 52 conspiracy theories in the US context.
(You will see this one flying around a lot. But keep reading!)
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I could not be more excited for my friend and colleague.
You rock sir.
Huge congratulations to our own Prof. Matt Hitt (
@matthewhitt
) for being named a Colorado State University Monfort Professor! Only 2 faculty members at
@ColoradoStateU
receive the award each year! Dr. Hitt will receive $100,000 in research support over the next two years
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This Fall,
@dweitzel
& I look forward to joining
@ColoradoStateU
as Assistant Professors. We know how hard it is to get ONE tenure-track position, let alone TWO, so we're honored that
@CSUPoliSci
will welcome us both!
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@harari_yuval
The problem is your cynical mode of thinking, which is rarely more than deconstruction and hyperpostmodern bullshit that destroys trust and creates decay and disorder.
You have done much more damage than good with your work.
I hope you realize that someday. I doubt you will.
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My goodness that Trump interview today was beyond horrible. There is no discipline, no awareness, no nothing. So very bad for the RNC, etc.
Between Biden dropping out of the race to now, including the Vance pick, that period has been an mitigated disaster for the Trump
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The chance that Kamala Harris is not the Democratic nominee for the office of the President of the United States is now less than 5% in my humble opinion after all the D coordination we’re seeing.
(As many of us said/predicted.)
Sure something crazy could still happen, but the
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In case you missed it, our department is hiring in REP...
Happy to answer any questions.
Don't hesitate to ask my awesome colleagues on here as well!
(We've hired so many in the last few years that their handles won't all fit in this tweet--I tried!)
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@mcnisbet
@Sander_vdLinden
@Nature
@pnas
after what we have seen from him on here, putting
@Sander_vdLinden
in charge of, well, anything--but especially anything to do with giving him any power to decide what actually is information and misinformation--would be ... an ironic use of his skill set.
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A couple of thoughts this morning:
Biden's stubbornness may be about power and self-interest, sure, but it may also reflect concern among the Ds that he's the only person to resolve the D coordination problem. Is the concern that that Ds won't unite behind Harris enough? (1/x)
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Onward to Charlotte.
#Stalwart
x
#CSURams
x
#GoRams
x
#MarchMadness2024
x
#Wowtheselectioncommitteereallysuckedeh
?
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The basics for those of you just tuning in and wondering about what happens next:
The DNC nominates the person who wins a majority of delegates at the convention.
Right now, all those delegates are pledged to Biden.
Unless he withdraws, Biden will be the nominee.
If Biden
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My friends
@resistancemoney
,
@rettlerb
, &
@craigwarmke
are doing a pretty hardcore Reddit
#AMA
for their book release on Friday. If you want to ask them some deep dark philosophical questions about
#Bitcoin
or their work see below.
Their excellent book:
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What an absolute own goal by the idiots at
@CNN
.
Was it a bit self-indulgent on Stanley's part? Sure, but that was the schtick! And it worked.
That said it was beautifully done, well produced, and well, I like Stanley's haircut a lot.
CNN reportedly looks to say "Ciao" to Stanley Tucci: Searching For Italy
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