Kimberly Clausing
@KClausing
Followers
10,739
Following
822
Media
134
Statuses
4,530
Economist; Professor @UCLA_Law ; sr fellow @PIIE ; former tax DAS at Treasury; Author, Open: The Progressive Case for Free Trade, Immigration, and Global Capital
LAX; PDX
Joined January 2012
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
REBECA
• 208624 Tweets
フランス
• 200744 Tweets
Simone
• 199303 Tweets
UNFAIR EVICTION OF KATARIA
• 191829 Tweets
अनुराग ठाकुर
• 136977 Tweets
julia
• 131148 Tweets
#AkatsukiJapan
• 119975 Tweets
Prisca
• 116637 Tweets
Beirut
• 105398 Tweets
Flavinha
• 74797 Tweets
#GinasticaArtistica
• 45156 Tweets
ファール
• 44085 Tweets
flavia
• 43249 Tweets
男子バスケ
• 34618 Tweets
Green Day
• 33329 Tweets
永瀬選手
• 21363 Tweets
震源23区
• 21279 Tweets
#ArtisticGymnastics
• 20551 Tweets
東京23区
• 19939 Tweets
Mourinho
• 19562 Tweets
VIOLETA IS COMING
• 16929 Tweets
Suni
• 16187 Tweets
ブラジル戦
• 15117 Tweets
Krunic
• 14663 Tweets
ファウル
• 13697 Tweets
アンスポ
• 11863 Tweets
八村退場
• 11012 Tweets
オーバータイム
• 10804 Tweets
Julinha
• 10370 Tweets
ディフェンス
• 10164 Tweets
Update: Sworn in today as deputy assistant secretary for tax analysis in Treasury. Tax policy is a key tool for tackling our biggest challenges, incl. pandemic relief & recovery, climate change, and inequality. Grateful to be part of Biden policy team! Fired up and ready to go.
141
136
2K
Here's a paper that deserves more downloads, on the 1918 flu.
Findings in short: Cities that intervene more aggressively grow faster afterwards. More early/aggressive interventions lower mortality *and* reduce negative economic consequences.
20
460
978
Net 175,000 missing manufacturing jobs due to Trump's reckless trade wars, plus higher prices for consumers and slower growth. Excellent summary of recent research from
@Kadee_Russ
.
“The Trade War Has Cost 175,000 Manufacturing Jobs and Counting”
17
307
424
Time to reread this, folks.
God Help Us if Judy Shelton Joins the Fed
20
156
291
Vote by mail is ALWAYS a good idea, and it is the only sensible solution now. It has worked beautifully in Oregon with no issues of fraud, and it enables busy people to participate in democracy. Every state should adopt. And while we're at it, automatic voter registration.
Senators push to let every American vote by mail as coronavirus keeps people at home
45
353
867
10
70
295
Everyone had their own way of copying with the 2016 election; this was mine. I'll be relentless tweeting about it later, but it's exciting to get author copies today. Available for pre-order from or .
24
52
283
(1/9) How to make a more equitable globalization? The tax system is essential. Of late, the labor share of income has fallen, yet capital is difficult to tax due to its international mobility. In a new draft,
@gabriel_zucman
, Emmanuel Saez and I propose a coordinated minimum tax.
11
88
252
Trump's pushing all-around inflationary agenda. (1) Tariffs = regressive, distortionary tax on consumption (2) less immigration => price pressures, (3) unfunded tax cuts => price pressures , (4) threatening Fed independence, and (5) weak dollar policy.
Trump: "Prices will start to go down"
But Wall Street analysts expect inflation to RISE if Trump becomes President while they expect it to FALL under Biden.
2
23
41
9
131
236
Update: I’ve finished my service at Treasury. I have so much respect and admiration for the Treasury team, and most especially our leader, the inimitable
@SecYellen
, who has done so much to move us forward over the prior 17 months. More later, but for now, rest.
11
20
233
Terrific policy. A carbon tax, 70 % rebated to those with low&middle incomes and 30% used for green infrastructure, R&D, and adjustment. Nice.
Senators to unveil carbon tax bill to generate $2.5 trillion in 10...
11
48
213
Good piece from
@Noahpinion
: Centrists like Klobuchar are right that free college is not ideal policy. But free college for low-income kids, and free community college, is achievable. "This is a case when big promises should give way to smart policy."
27
43
207
Nice to see the public focusing on facts that were there all along. The Tax Policy Center, the JCT, and the CBO analyses all back public's perception.
“survey commissioned by RNC has glum conclusion: voters overwhelmingly believe Trump tax cut helps wealthy instead of average Americans. by 61%-30%, respondents said the law benefits ‘large corporations and rich Americans’ over ‘middle class families’ “
201
1K
2K
7
72
187
The Economist endorsement.
"[Biden] would enter the White House with the promise of the most precious gift that democracies can bestow: renewal."
America’s election – Why it has to be Biden
1
40
183
There are (so) many smarter ways to be pro-labor than putting the Jones Act before the people of Puerto Rico.
NEW: White House under mounting pressure - from Dems & Rs - to grant Puerto Rico a waiver for shipment of diesel just off island
4 PR officials went to WH today to press case
Huge danger w/ water & sewage plants not operational
Biden aides noncommittal
48
206
702
3
24
176
Score one for the betting markets. Here are the predictit markets from just before the election. So far they've been right about *every* state that's been called.
10
18
165
Attacks on higher education save $69b and hurt millions; estate tax repeal costs $172b to help 1/5 of 1%; this makes America competitive???
2
121
147
(1/10) What do we learn about profit shifting from the new country by country data? At least five important lessons!
My new paper from Tax Notes (Fed/Intl) is now publicly available on SSRN.
6
62
157
The Senate’s tax bill is a sweeping change to every part of federal health care via
@voxdotcom
23
139
134
🧵[1/11] In our new
@PIIE
paper (forthcoming, summer JEP), Catherine Wolfram and I consider the frictions created by asymmetric climate change policies. What happens when some countries subsidize, and others impose costs?
2
58
141
Given capital's increasing role in the economy over the prior decades, and increased inequality, any net tax cuts should be directed toward labor. Business tax reforms should be revenue neutral.
5
62
136
D candidates shouldn't be scared to repeal the tariffs. They're ineffective in their stated aims, they're harmful to our workers and firms, and they are a regressive consumption tax.
6
35
134
(1/6) My former Treasury colleague
#CatherineWolfram
on why blocking permitting reform is both inefficient and inequitable.
Progressives should have supported Manchin’s permitting reforms: Here’s why
5
32
129
🧵 (1/6) In a just released
@PIIE
blog, Maurice Obstfeld and I examine the limits of Trump’s desire to replace income taxes with tariffs. In short, a full replacement is impossible. And, if you push this policy to its limit, it would be bad by any metric.
5
83
130
Do you love data, taxes, and research? And do you have serious experience in same? Apply to be the Chief Data and Analytics Officer at IRS.
3
59
124
Somehow all my intro econ students know this but no one in the Trump administration does.
Trying to address the trade deficit using trade policy is the economic equivalent of trying to use bleach or hydroxychloroquine to treat covid.
3
17
40
2
30
119
I couldn't agree more. Great facts, figures, and arguments in this terrific piece from
@mattyglesias
Immigration makes America great via
@voxdotcom
0
30
119
A carbon tax should be part of every climate plan.
Taxes aren't popular, but a carbon tax can pay for lower rates elsewhere in the system, offsetting (or more than offsetting) any effects on distribution.
4
26
114
As voting starts, I fully expect to lose to the many followers of
@webdevMason
. But I literally wrote the book defending free trade and immigration, and fully support Taco trucks on every corner. Even if you vote for the opposition, check out the book.
The Meetup Region
---
Reed Economics Professor
@KClausing
(3)
vs.
Bay area graphic designer and caterpillar rancher
@webdevMason
(14)
1
2
4
5
10
111
More evidence that anti-immigrant policies generate tremendous economic self-harm: 83% Of America's Top High School Science Students Are The Children Of Immigrants via
@forbes
4
46
105
A nice defense of the CRS from Ed Kleinbard.
(Just because you don't like the findings of a CRS report, it doesn't mean the CRS is to blame.)
Chuck Grassley is bullying the Congressional Research Service
6
41
104
🧵 (1/10) In today’s new brief,
@melovely_max
and I analyze key Trump proposals, viewing tariffs as fiscal policy. Trump's new tariffs & tax cut extensions combine regressive tax cuts & regressive tax increases, increasing the deficit & harming workers.
4
52
101
Not only is there no evidence an investment boom from TCJA, but trade wars have made US investment less competitive. Throwing sand in the wheels of international supply chains is not a way to improve competitiveness.
A core promise of President Trump's economic policies -- on trade, taxes and regulation -- is that they will bring back a wave of jobs that had been outsourced and investment that was driven offshore.
So far, there is no evidence of that.
115
687
1K
1
48
95
And thanks to everyone for their well wishes; I got scooped while I was sorting out paperwork and techology :).
6
3
95
A nice review of the evidence here. In short, immigration is a boon for economic growth and innovation (and the immigrants themselves), but there is no good evidence of harmful effects on native-born workers. See also chapter 8 of my book Open, now in paperback.
Let this post be your one-stop shop for evidence on why immigration doesn't hurt wages.
31
132
638
6
21
99
(1/6) I have posted a research note titled “How Big is Profit Shifting?” It is available here:
This note responds to a recent critique that argues that profit shifting is much smaller than we thought. In short, it is not.
1
34
98
Don't let the rest of last week's news distract you from this stunning story.
Fewer Than 0.5 Percent of Very High-Income Households Paid as Little Tax As Donald Trump: via
@TaxPolicyCenter
2
38
92
Making corporate inversions great again.
JUST IN: Treasury Department officials are considering rolling back a tax rule aimed at preventing American companies from moving money offshore to avoid U.S. taxes.
22
156
125
2
21
89
(1/11) I have new updates to my profit shifting work. In a revision of “Profit Shifting Before and After TCJA”, I investigate the size of profit shifting, and how it is likely to change (or not) after TJCA.
2
30
88
This is your reminder that tariffs are regressive consumption taxes (even more than VATs).
And that companies and their workers benefit from open trade in a variety of ways (exporters avoid retaliation; imported inputs are not more expensive, risking competitiveness, etc).
New: Trump is vowing an "automatic" 10% tariff on *ALL* imports to US
Calls for "ring" around US economy
Would likely mean global trade war far surpassing his 1st term's
Came up at Bedminster dinner last week w/ top aides, including Kudlow & Gingrich
378
476
1K
3
16
87
Pete Buttigieg is more electable than Bernie Sanders — and more progressive than you think via
@voxdotcom
6
7
86
(1/6) Today, on tax day, I was delighted to testify at the
@SenateBudget
hearing on the importance of collecting more tax revenue. My testimony, linked below, focuses on the importance of international tax reform.
9
23
86
"It’s particularly important to audit the wealthy well, and not simply because that’s where the money is. That’s where the cheating is, too. Studies show that the wealthiest are more likely to avoid paying taxes. "
2
67
83
(1/4) People often underestimate how much IRS funding will help compliant taxpayers. This piece by
@crampell
helps explain why.
5
35
84
From Mankiw: Why positive externalities should be subsidized (and negative ones, taxed).
Pay People to Get Vaccinated
2
29
85
Family separation is a moral stain on this country that we will never forget.
2
16
84
🧵 (1/12) My new paper, “Capital Taxation and Market Power”, , argues that market power makes the entity level of tax especially important, that we should consider graduated corporate rates, and that intl. tax reform is essential to that vision.
2
39
83
Opinion | If the tax bill is so great, why does the GOP keep lying about it?
2
39
77
Who would have guessed it? (Nearly everyone.)
GOP leader concedes tax cuts may not pay for themselves as 2019 deficit grows
3
34
77
My latest piece. In short, Congress should reject the bill. If they fail to do so, they should brace themselves for large deficits & the gimmicks and mistakes that come from a reckless tax policy process.
The GOP's final tax bill has four fatal flaws:
7
74
77
Strong piece from
@gregmankiw
calling for freer trade, market-based solutions to climate change, sensible improvements in healthcare access, and an embrace of our common humanity.
Why a ‘Republican Economist’ Plans to Vote in the Democratic Primary
3
25
79
I'd facepalm but we're not supposed to.
What me worry? “We're going to have Americans staying home instead of going and spending the money in other countries," Trump said. "And maybe that's one of the reasons the jobs numbers are so good.”
4
9
18
2
10
78
The Economist says it well: In any democracy, a party that considers pursuing a lower turnout to be a legitimate electoral strategy does not deserve to win elections.
Voting in a pandemic –
0
20
80
This administration's ability to shoot own-goals is breathtaking. Yet another disastrously wrongheaded choice that leaves America weaker, dumber, and less respected. Also, less innovative, less entrepreneurial, and less dynamic.
President Trump will freeze green cards for new immigrants and sign an executive order to suspend H-1B, L-1, J and other temporary work visas for skilled workers, managers and au pairs through the end of the year.
21
39
52
5
19
78
Nice application of elasticity from
@austan_goolsbee
. Stringer Bell would be proud.
Passengers May Pay a Lot More. Drivers Won’t Accept Much Less.
7
26
78
I'm thrilled to be joining
@PIIE
as a nonresident senior fellow. I've admired PIIE work for decades, and I look forward to collaborating with PIIE's many amazing researchers on today's pressing economic policy problems.
9
9
75
My kind of tax avoidance!
1. Trump admin imposes tariffs on bottles of French wine
2. Florida company imports truckloads of bulk wine from France, bottles the product at its own plant
3. Et voilà! no tariff
80
574
2K
4
13
73
#EconTwitter
: Do you want to teach intellectually curious undergraduates and live in Portland, Oregon? Reed College is hiring! Tenure-track assistant or associate.
4
18
71
Taxpayers paid once for the bailout. And they paid a second time in higher prices for tariffed goods.
3
17
72
(1/8) A Thread on What I Hope We Learn from This.
I hope we see that we are all from New York, Wuhan, and Lombardy, and we share our common humanity. I hope human suffering stirs compassion, and human generosity is met with admiration.
12
10
61
Very happy about this nomination. (And, also, about the first woman Treasury Secretary.)
NEWS: Joe Biden intends to nominate former Fed chair Janet Yellen to serve as Treasury secretary. If confirmed, she will be the first woman to have the job
2
62
153
3
7
66
🧵(1/7) In today’s Hill op-ed, Catherine Wolfram and I argue that: while no politician will run on increasing taxes, a carbon fee is something that should be on the table in 2025, for a few key reasons.
2
22
68
Trump: My tax plan would grow the economy. Tax Policy Center: No, it would shrink it by 4%. via
@voxdotcom
7
60
59
Congratulations to the inimitable
@HBoushey
on the NYT profile. I highly recommend her must-read book on these themes, Unbound.
A Gen-X Adviser to Biden Argues Equality Is Good for Growth
0
15
63
(1/2) At the one year anniversary of Inflation Reduction Act, it's time to celebrate adequate funding for the IRS.
@NatashaRSarin
explains five reasons why.
1
29
63
Another ridiculous US policy stance. Hopefully the next administration will see the wisdom of a carbon tax.
US threatens retaliation against EU over carbon tax via
@financialtimes
3
11
62
A strong estate tax will ensure equal treatment of wealth and wages
5
12
61
This is truly terrible economic policy.
Trump takes yet more steps to keep skilled foreigners out of the country.
13
35
35
2
28
58
Countries that spend more than they earn run trade deficits. Those that earn more than they spend run surpluses. Understanding that simple logic would reduce hurt feelings re trade deficits.
For more detail see ch 6 of Open:
4
17
58
Looks like I'm going down. But, out of respect for all those Super Tuesday voters, I plan to get out of the race and endorse Joe Biden.
The Meetup Region
---
Mercatus urbanism research fellow
@ebwhamilton
(6)
vs.
Reed Professor of Economics and
@KClausing
(3)
2
3
2
5
5
58
Worth a careful read! A reminder that, as the research clearly shows, tariffs are a regressive consumption tax paid by Americans. (And they don't help workers.)
Trump’s Tariff Would Cost the Typical American Household Roughly $1,500 Each Year
2
16
60
(1/5) In my new working paper just posted on ssrn, , I look at U.S. multinational company profit shifting before and after the TCJA. Before the TCJA, I estimate that profit shifting by US MNCs generated an annual revenue loss of more than $100 billion.
2
29
59
Why Ds should not follow Trump down the protectionist road. It is not just bad economics, but bad politics.
Useful thread on trade polling data:
Pretty brutal new national
@QuinnipiacPoll
on Trump & trade:
-14 (39%-53%) on trade;
-10 (40%-50%) on China;
+8 (48%-40%) on trade policies bad for US economy;
+8 (44%-36%) on trade policies bad for personal financial situation;
11
151
383
4
13
58
My interview with NPR today. (Spoiler: R tax bills won't help workers as much as shareholders.) Economist Takes Deep Dive Into The Effects Of Slashing Corporate Taxes
1
36
56
1/7) In my piece today for the LA Times, I argue there is no time like the present (or, let’s say, soon) to replace TCJA, recession or not.
3
30
58
fwiw, I have a much bigger problem with forecasts that TCJA would boost wages $4,000-$9,000 (or dow 36,000) than with the use of the words "human capital", which were certainly not fitting to the situation but, at the same time, are common econo-speak.
6
3
58
This is an enormously effective anti-poverty policy. It would even better to get this done permanently.
0
7
57
@ne0liberal
bracket voters: I Iiterally wrote a book defending free trade and immigration... useful reading now more than ever. Whether or not I have your vote, check out the book!
(6) UCLA Law Economics Professor
@KClausing
vs (11) Guy that told us he changed his username 5 minutes after we tweeted out the bracket
@spktrvc
(formerly known as
@manicpixieDyIan
)
1
0
13
3
4
54
Revenue is one good reason to move forward on the international tax agreement, and OECD revisions (due to better data and rising corporate profits) show that there is a lot of revenue at stake.
2
20
55
This is an incredibly dumb policy choice; I suggest moving in the exact opposite direction in my book Open. Foreign students are a huge boon to US economic growth, innovation, and entrepreneurship; we'd be foolish to squander these advantages.
0
12
57
Big mistake. Huge.
In Washington, efforts to withdraw from the trade body are gaining momentum. That would be a big mistake.
0
17
56
(1/7) I'm working on a detailed response that I will post soon, but there are many issues here, some of which are quite technical. Double counting (in some BEA data) was known by me and others and was corrected for/dealt with in more recent papers.
The magnitudes are pretty big!
This potentially reduces
@KClausing
's estimate by between $67 to $79 billion per year (in 2012)!
1
0
3
2
17
55
🧵 (1/6) Enjoyed testifying before the Joint Economic Committee today. Some highlights:
We have an imbalance between our fiscal needs and our tax revenue. We cannot afford to simply extend TCJA tax cuts (or reverse TCJA baked-in raisers) w/o a broader tax policy rethink.
1
19
56
Today's reminder that the United States is a low-tax country.
Total tax revenue (including federal, state, and local taxes) as a share of GDP was 24.5% for the US in 2019. The US ranked 32nd out of 36 OECD countries and below all other G7 countries.
#FiscalFact
via
@aravindbodu
7
39
49
1
11
54
@BetseyStevenson
And if you compare the do nothing strategy, where most everyone gets it and 2% die, you end up with numbers that are closer to 3x GDP, from
@wwwojtekk
, ignoring lung damage. (Your number is closer to 0.2% of people dying.)
3
6
50
So happy to see Open among this terrific list of books.
1
4
53
(1/9) Congress should pass the Inflation Reduction Act: it funds key efforts on climate change mitigation, it makes healthcare more affordable, and it provides funds to modernize the IRS. It will also reduce deficits, something that Congress typically lacks the courage to do.
1
21
50
I agree, but I'm worried that legal challenges could stymie this tax. If expending political capital on taxing the rich, it would be ideal if success didn't come down to the judgement of John Roberts. Closing loopholes/raising rates in the existing tax structure may be easier.
Today's
@bopinion
post is about wealth taxes. There is a very real possibility that they'll raise less revenue than proponents think. But that doesn't mean they're a bad policy!
16
21
84
10
10
53
The taxpayers paid for the farmer bailouts necessitated by Trump's reckless trade wars.
1
13
52
The perils of trade wars for Ohio, from
@TimothyNoah1
. Wherein, I note that Trump doesn't seem to understand the intensely global supply chains of auto manufacturing.
Trump faces failing strategy on auto jobs as he heads to Ohio via
@politico
2
27
48
My piece in Foreign Affairs on why protectionism is harmful to workers. There are far better ways to address slow wage growth and economic inequality. For the longer version of this argument, read my book Open!
2
29
51
Excellent piece on tariffs. No boost to US jobs, but higher costs for companies. And consumers.
A Winter-Coat Heavyweight Gives Trump’s Trade War the Cold Shoulder
0
25
46
What a huge moment as the Senate passes IRA, making crucial investments in climate change mitigation, modernizing the IRS, and lowering health care costs. IRA also reduces deficits, something never easy to do. A big shout out to everyone who did the hard work to get this done!
2
7
49
(2/6) As fiscal policy, it would drive large deficits. Tariffs would raise nowhere near the revenue needed to replace income taxes ($2 trillion), maxing out at less than $800 billion. In contrast, recent CBO analysis shows full TCJA extensions costing about $5 trillion.
5
27
48
So thrilled for the Fed, the country, and for
@Austan_Goolsbee
. Well-deserved!
Economist Austan Goolsbee Is Named to Lead the Chicago Fed
2
4
48
My former student
@KittyRichardsDC
(and some Nobel prize winner) on why state&local governments cause less recessionary impact raising taxes on those doing well than cutting jobs/programs.
(And Congress should aid S&L govts!)
3
12
48
The minimum tax in this plan is much stronger than the TCJA minimum tax; TCJA's min tax exempts first 10% return, allows blending, and is at half the US rate.
Biden unveils plan to penalize companies that offshore jobs ahead of Michigan visit
3
13
49