Kyle Pomerleau
@kpomerleau
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Tax Policy. Senior Fellow @AEI
Washington D.C.
Joined February 2011
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Reminder: if everyone put a small steel furnace in their backyard, we could overtake the UK's industrial output in 15 years.
REMINDER: if one in ten American households raised a 1/2 acre garden and kept 35 laying hens, there would be no industrial egg or vegetable production (level one)
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Rough estimate using IRS data:
The Structure of the Senate GOP Plan's Rebate would mean that roughly 64 million filers earning less than $50k would not receive the full rebate amount of $1,200/$2,400.
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It would be nice if an organization devoted to education wouldn't spread false information.
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You cannot deduct your mortgage from your taxable income nor can you deduct your rent.
You can deduct the interest, however, if you itemize. But landlords can also deduct the interest on debt financed rental properties.
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How much of the anti-vaxx movement are adults who can't admit they are scared of needles?
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These people entering the US will reduce the budget deficit by nearly $1 trillion over the next decade.
Buried in the news cycle - A new congressional report says that:
1. Biden's flood of illegal aliens will reach 8.7 million🤯
2. Which will cost taxpayers an additional $278 billion in welfare costs over a decade!
That's $2,100 per American household! 😡💸
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I am always wary of the "look at this price!" meme.
Why?
According to AAA, national average is $4.098 a gallon and $5.748 per gallon in CA.
Gas prices in California have hit nosebleed levels.
Nearing $10 per gallon.
Don’t believe me? See for yourself:
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Pretty much all of this revenue is coming from capital gains.
Mark Mazur is right: If scored by JCT, the revenue impact would be close to $0 due to sharply reduced realizations.
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If I understand correctly, the top capital gains tax rate will go from 23.8% to 31.8% (excluding state and local).
Statutory rate goes from 20% to 25% then add in 3.8% NIIT + new 3% surtax on AGI over $5 million.
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Terrible tax policy.
BREAKING: Gov. Ron DeSantis announces a plan to provide a sales tax exemption for one year for ALL household items $25 and less.
Also one year exemption for children's books and toys.
The legislature would need to approve it.
(More announcements coming)
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Biden's tax plan would raise about $4 trillion over a decade primarily from the top 1% of households.
The vast majority of households will pay less tax than they did prior to the 2017 tax law.
Biden will also raise your taxes like never before. Sad!
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L -and I can't stress this enough- MAO.
Last year,
@cpa_tradereform
modeled the effects of Trump's proposed 10% universal tariff—the very policy that the Biden campaign is dead-set on opposing. The results:
- Real household incomes increase by $7,000
- 3.3 million new jobs created
- 3.61% real GDP growth
(2/5)
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Is she shipping her groceries in from a foreign country with FedEx?
Why is it so expensive?
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Might try cutting tariffs first.
BREAKING from WaPo: Senior WH officials are considering a payroll tax cut to stimulate the economy.
Congress would have to approve, but it's another sign of WH worrying about a recession or deeper downturn in 2020.
Scoop by
@damianpaletta
#economy
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@nittiaj
Most people will have small indirect tax increases due to the corporate tax.
And for the small number of very high-income households taxpayers facing direct tax increases under Biden's proposal, It's no where near double.
New from me (w/assistance from
@kpomerleau
) is a look at how five households* might fare in the Biden tax plan.
(*These are not representative/typical households. That's because so much of the action in the Biden tax plan is above $400k.)
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I think it is great that my son exists and lives in America.
Roy: We have 51.5 million people who are foreign born in the US. They have about 20-25 million kids. That puts that well over 20% of our population. It's the highest such number in the history of our country. People say, isn't that great? Is it?
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For a single filer, income must be at least about $23k to get the full $1,200.
For married couple filing jointly, AGI must be about $47k to get the full $2,400.
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Some professional news: this Friday, November 8th will be my last day at the Tax Foundation.
Later this month, I will be joining
@AEI
as a Resident Fellow.
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Not very helpful context.
The $3.5 trillion is *on top* of existing spending.
$725.8 billion is total defense spending.
Some context on price tags:
The $725.8 billion defense spending bill is for 1 year.
The $3.5 trillion Build Back Better plan is over 10 years.
Apples to apples, Biden's economic and social policy bill is less than half of what Congress wants to spend on the Pentagon.
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Great joke about the difference between a tax and a user fee in this CBO report.
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Lol.
Not even close.
Do me a favor. Go look at your last pay check stub. Then look at the taxes that were taken out. Then realize that the Ukraine probably got 20-40% of that money. Ask yourselves... what could you do with that money? Better yet... what could you do with all of the taxes that were
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The real benefit of homeownership is that imputed rental income is tax free.
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Oh no! A Republican who could peel off votes from the Democrat and win an election! The horror!
Nikki Haley supporters are all voting for Biden in November — in their own words
This should absolutely terrify you
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If hospitals actually save lives, why do so many people die after being admitted to the hospital?
If mask mandates and lockdowns actually work, why are we seeing states with the strictest “safety” measures reach record high infection rates?
🤔
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I, for one, believe income should be subject to the income tax.
New: In an appeal to service industry voters, Donald Trump in Las Vegas today will call on Congress to eliminate tax on tips for restaurant/hospitality workers, according to speech excerpt.
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Another group falsely claiming that tariffs will reduce the trade deficit.
They will not. Higher tariffs will make imports, exports, and total U.S. output decline.
The adoption of a universal basic tariff, of 10% or even higher, would help to balance the trade deficit, increase domestic production, & secure or reshore strategic industries.
READ HOW:
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This is not well designed.
At $500,001, the taxpayer will face a marginal tax rate of at least 3,200%.
The Rules Committee is expected to meet tomorrow morning on a SALT bill, per a source
Here’s text of the SALT bill in play here, which is a very limited, temporary deduction increase for married couples
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15% of what?
It's one thing to agree on a rate. Need to agree on the base, which will be the tricky part.
The G7 Finance Ministers have made a significant, unprecedented commitment today that provides tremendous momentum towards achieving a robust global minimum tax at a rate of at least 15%.
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Warren's framing of "the wealth tax is just 2%" is misleading as it is as a percent of wealth, not income and applies year after year.
2% of wealth is ~40% income tax on an asset with a 5% return.
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Pretty remarkable that America temporarily constructed a pro-growth tax code -- including 100 percent bonus depreciation, lower statutory tax rates, and incentives to locate IP in the U.S., etc -- and then just systematically and slowly demolished it
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Speaking of regressive tax changes.
This is a ...novel... approach to address the coronavirus.
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LOL. The TCJA lowered the cost of capital which increases the incentive to invest. That's good, but that's not going to magically make people want to buy the Chevy Cruze.
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Vaxxed?
Ron DeSantis just pulled all of his events off his website.
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.
@AndrewYang
is correct that a VAT would not "drive business out" of the United States.
The tax is paid on all goods and services purchased here, regardless of where they are produced.
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Profits.
Someone please explain to me, like I am a five year old, precisely what the incentive is for the private sector to build houses in such quantities that the amount of money they can charge us for those houses goes down
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Not to be the baseline police, but this "tax hike" is part of current law and will happen regardless of who is president--unless Congress stops it.
Joe Biden is proposing the biggest middle class tax hike in modern times.
Here's his plan:
- A lower standard deduction
- A new 20% hike in small business tax rates
- Families forced to pay alternative minimum tax
- Families forced to pay estate tax
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Another entry into "the more wrong it is, the more viral it is" series of tweets.
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The Chinese corporate income tax rate is 25%.
China has a business tax rate of 15%. We should do everything possible to match them in order to win with our economy. Jobs and wages!
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The new bill has updated the rebate: it no longer has a phase-in.
It is treated like a refundable tax credit and filers no longer need at least $2,500.
Here is an updated chart.
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Back of the envelope: A 25% VAT *in addition to* the $14 trillion Sanders proposed during campaign would not be enough to double fed revenue
Sanders health care proposal would require essentially doubling federal tax revenue. As it stands the bill is benefits without costs.
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The don't treat the accounting identity as a function that explains GDP challenge.
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"A small group of Democratic and Republican House members plans to introduce a carbon tax bill this week, the first bipartisan climate legislation in a decade."
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The gas tax is Good and shouldn't be eliminated.
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Sen. Romney has released a big, serious proposal for a child allowance:
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1. This really limits Biden ability to make many changes to the tax code, especially the corporate tax.
2. His tax plan already violates this pledge.
Joe Biden vows not to raise taxes on anyone making under $400,000.
Biden on CNBC: "Nobody making under $400,000 would have their taxes raised. Period. bingo."
(Context: Obama said he wouldn't raise taxes on anyone making under $250,000)
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I have no problem with this line of argument.
Too bad the administration didn't use it to support a carbon tax.
The House bill doubles cigarette taxes from $1/pack to $2/pack and raises other tobacco taxes. The direct effect of this is regressive but the indirect effects are much larger, more important and very progressive--conferring larger health gains for lower-income households. A 🧵.
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If anyone is curious, the OP is completely made up.
The distribution looks more like this:
@a_Mexican_guy5
They made that up. Completely.
In 2023, the JCT finds that it would *cut* taxes for households earning under $200k, on average.
So, *more than 100%* of the tax increase is coming from those earning more than 200k.
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I think Alan understates how burdensome a 2% wealth tax would be!
A 2% wealth tax on an asset with a real return of 3% is equivalent to a 67% income tax, which would be on top of existing taxes on saving and investment.
Me in Bloomberg Tax. The global wealth tax idea being promoted at the G20:
❌taxes deferred consumption more than immediate consumption
❌is difficult for even enthusiastic countries to administer faithfully
❌will be easily circumvented by low-tax countries
❌has constitutional
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With apologies to my new
#YangGang
followers, but his 10% VAT would not come close to paying for his YangBucks.
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You don't become a high-ranking shaman without consuming a large number of misleading fiscal policy memes.
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This plan (smartly) eliminates the SALT deduction.
Which, unfortunately, means the new Manchin would be Menendez!
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The phrase "conservative economics" used by NatCons has the same vibe as "alternative medicine." And you know what they say:
If conservative economics were right, they'd just call it economics.
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It's really too bad that the supply of housing is fixed and there is absolutely nothing we can do about it.
Letting in too many people drives up housing costs for normal Americans. Stop Biden’s border crisis, and stop his war on home affordability.
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I wish I knew about these immigration loopholes during my wife's immigration process. Would have made my life easier!
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I liked it better when the R's climate change talking point was "what about nuclear?"
Coal is bad! Sorry, it's true!
End electric vehicle subsidies. Stop measuring CO2 emissions. Drill. Frack. Burn coal.
The climate emperor has no clothes.
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Plz stop.
Did the GOP tax cut increase the deficit? No! Tax revenues are up.
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If anything, the gas tax should be increased.
As prices rise, the cost of repairing and maintaining roads and bridges will rise.
However, the gas tax, which helps finance these investments, is not adjusted for inflation, resulting in a real cut in the tax rate.
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For anyone keeping track, we are now estimating that the negative effect of the enacted and proposed tariffs completely outweighs TCJA's positive impact on the labor force in the long-run.
U.S. reaffirmed plans to impose
#tariffs
on all Chinese imports, totaling approximately $500 billion.
Our economic analysis of total enacted and announced tariffs already included this latest announcement.
See it here:
@ericadyork
@kpomerleau
#Trade
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"Hi, I'd like to discuss some minor inconsistencies with your policy proposal."
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For background, this group uses a model that isn't based on any macro or micro theory. It just assumes this policy grows the economy because they want it to.
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What if there is a legal challenge to The Coin?
"send troops to the Fed."
Truly remarkable stuff.
I asked
@rohangrey
&
@NathanTankus
— 2 of the leading theorists behind the “Mint the $1 Trillion Coin” idea — about some of the concerns I’d been hearing from those close to the White House about their plan Their responses, shared w/ permission, are worth reading
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HSAs are not good tax policy.
HSA are more than just tax free saving, they are double tax exempt and are equivalent to a sales tax exemption.
They are also annoying to comply with.
🚨 Today, the House Ways and Means Committee is scheduled to mark up two bills expanding Health Savings Accounts (HSAs).
The bills will reduce revenue by a combined $71 billion over FY 2024–2033, $12 billion in 2033 alone.
Unpaid-for tax cuts make little sense in the current
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A take: if Biden wins and Rs control the Senate, this timeline will be the driving force behind the tax policy debate over the next couple of years.
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Are we in for another "why did my refund shrink so much?" news cycle?
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Sorry friends, a flat tax is not going to address a lot of this.
It still requires defining income and addressing multi-year investments, which is complex and can result in business taxpayers with no tax liability in certain years.
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It's getting harder and harder to distinguish between the GOP's and Bernie Sanders's Tweets.
In 1993, Biden supported NAFTA & downplayed arguments against it—calling them “vastly, vastly, vastly overblown.”
NAFTA killed THOUSANDS of American jobs & put other countries' workers before our own.
Pres. Trump's
#USMCA
—to be put into effect today—puts
#AmericaFirst
!
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One way to measure the compliance cost of the US tax code is to add up the profits of all the major tax prep and accounting firms.
Shares of the company H&R Block are plunging because tax reform made filing your taxes easier
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I don't think I'd call a policy choice a loophole.
Nearly 2 in 5 Americans will receive an inheritance in their lifetime.
They're most likely to be white and well off already.
Yet almost no one has to pay an "estate tax" anymore. It's one of the biggest loopholes for the rich in the US tax code
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NEW: An updated analysis of Joe Biden’s Tax Proposals. w/
@Grant_Seiter
@AEI
-Raises $2.8 trillion between 2021-2030
-Cuts taxes for bottom 95% and raises them for top 5% in 2021
-Reduces GDP this decade by -0.16%
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How would "orienting free enterprise in support of the common good" impact a country's ranking in Heritage's Index of Economic Freedom?
NEW REPORT: Conservatives are rethinking the relationship between free enterprise & the common good. The question isn't whether to jettison free enterprise in favor of the common good, but rather how to orient free enterprise in support of the common good.
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Have single payer advocates ever considered financing their plans the way they are financed in other countries?
This proposal here is *terrible*.
A 2.3%(!!!!!) gross receipts tax. Unreal.
California
#SinglePayer
funding proposal:
-2.3% excise tax on businesses, minus first $2mil in receipts
-1.25% payroll tax for businesses with 50+ employees, more for those making $50K+
-Personal income tax, increases starting at 0.5% for $149K, rising to 2.5% for $2.4 million+
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@a_Mexican_guy5
They made that up. Completely.
In 2023, the JCT finds that it would *cut* taxes for households earning under $200k, on average.
So, *more than 100%* of the tax increase is coming from those earning more than 200k.
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The return of a classic (misleading) talking point!
An annual tax of 2 percent on wealth is actually a very large tax!
"two cents on the dollar" is equivalent to a 67% income tax on an asset with a 3% pre-tax return.
It is time for a
#WealthTax
on fortunes greater than $50 million. With just two cents on the dollar from ultra-millionaires, and just a few more pennies from billionaires, we can fund a future for all of our kids.
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[WWII plane meme]
So 88% of those forced on ventilators died. These people are fathers, mothers, grandfathers, most of them far younger than those who died from Covid alone. It was a murderous calamity about which hardly anyone writes. No one takes responsibility.
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Wait until ProPublica learns about the tax treatment of homeowner occupied housing.
New: A massive tax break allows owners to report huge losses to the IRS, even if their teams are profitable, and save themselves hundreds of millions.
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Other tax increases the Biden admin is thinking about for the next package.
Would total about $1.8 trillion over ten years.
Relies a lot on getting that corporate rate to 28%!
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@AlecStapp
Am I reading that right, or is that really not that bad?
Are they saying that all gas stoves in the US have the same climate impact in a year as ~1/5th of one percent of all registered cars in the United States?
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I feel like we have been over this before, but:
Indexing capital gains for inflation:
-Would provide little boost to the economy.
-Would invite tax avoidance if not paired with indexing of other assets.
-Would not provide relief to those in need.
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Progressivity is not a meaningful concept for entity-level taxes.
Corporation one: $500,000 in profits, owned by a single doctor.
Corporation two: $1 billion in profits, owned, in part, by a 85 year old retiree that lives off $20,000 in dividends.
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There must be nuance I am missing, but being upset about a state using their rainy day fund for a rainy day is hilarious.
Despite Maine being in a surplus, Governor Mills and the Democrats seem poised to raid the rainy day fund to pay for recent storm repairs.
Read our full blog:
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All of you urbanist/transportation nerds are learning about what I call the "law of public intellectuals:"
They sound knowledgeable and well-researched until they start talking about your area of expertise.
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I regret to inform anyone who liked either of these tweets: both are cringe.
Listen to the kids to determine the optimal size of the public sector, they say.
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@scottlincicome
Life was so much better when a fungus could wipe out a country's food supply.
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There is a serious tax policy lesson here:
A flat benefit is progressive because it covers a smaller portion of a high-income households' budgets!
Is she shipping her groceries in from a foreign country with FedEx?
Why is it so expensive?
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Uh oh. The tech people are talking about tax policy again!
It’s difficult to describe how insane a 25% tax on unrealized capital gains is.
Not a one-time 25% hit. It’s compounding, annually taking 25% of every dollar of potential increase before it can grow.
Not an exaggeration to say it could single-handedly crush the economy.
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Good thing they exempted those hard-working middle-income households that only earned $399,999.
Hundreds of thousands of rich people think they're above the law and don't even bother filing taxes. Glad to see we're cracking down on this crime wave
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Looks like they are cutting them through tighter eligibility requirements. This is new!
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This is a bad tweet.
Yeah, withholding changes have caught some people off guard, but the TCJA is not a middle class tax increase.
The average tax refund is down about $170 compared to last year. Let’s call the President’s tax cut what it is: a middle-class tax hike to line the pockets of already wealthy corporations and the 1%.
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