Erica York
@ericadyork
Followers
4,578
Following
1,071
Media
1,017
Statuses
7,732
senior economist and research director @taxfoundation . adjunct instructor @sterlingclife . mom of two.
Kansas
Joined May 2014
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Brazil
• 1302139 Tweets
Elon Musk
• 735973 Tweets
#BUS1stFANCON_KnockKnockKnock
• 325579 Tweets
Caitlin Clark
• 89467 Tweets
#GFRunTheWorldConcertD1
• 81308 Tweets
#WITHYOU_MV
• 62746 Tweets
GULF NEW SONG
• 54921 Tweets
Bluesky
• 50802 Tweets
#プレイバックガチャ
• 44933 Tweets
TEDDYTINT x POND
• 35717 Tweets
Djokovic
• 27710 Tweets
Gomita
• 27097 Tweets
札幌2歳
• 24149 Tweets
ドジャース
• 23608 Tweets
野菜の日
• 22058 Tweets
Stanford
• 17076 Tweets
Popyrin
• 16201 Tweets
JAMESSU FM IN QINGDAO
• 14929 Tweets
台風一過
• 13333 Tweets
SUNSET X VIBES WATCH PARTY
• 10693 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
🚨New
@TaxFoundation
estimates:
Trump’s 60% tariff on imports from China plus 10% universal tariff on all imports would reduce long-run GDP by 0.8%, the capital stock by 0.7%, and eliminate 684,000 jobs, not counting likely foreign retaliation.
14
304
561
What I don’t understand is how a bill that just sends $600 checks can take up 3,116 pages
19
36
577
Right, good luck milking $2 trillion of tax revenue out of $3 trillion of imports.
Most intriguing policy idea from the GOP meeting at the Capitol Hill Club this morning:
Trump briefly floated the concept of eliminating the income tax and replacing it with tariffs. 🧐
2K
4K
23K
63
55
480
When steel tariffs got raised by the Bush 43 admin, that made it HARDER, not easier, for them to be competitive. He was literally one of those hard hat steel industry guys that political ads get made about and the kind of person that people think gets helped by protectionism. 2/3
1
5
93
7
97
476
...for every steel-worker job saved by those tariffs—at a cost of $650,000 per job—more than eight were destroyed in the downstream industries that use steel and aluminum. So much for the “common good.”
12
99
448
Wrong. The United States International Trade Commission itself found the tariffs all passed through to Americans: “…econometric results and the academic literature, which both estimate the tariffs under Section 232 and 301 passed through fully into U.S. importer prices.”
Trump: A tariff is a tax on a foreign country. A lot of people like to say it’s a tax on us. No… It’s is a tax that doesn’t affect our country.
4K
1K
7K
95
87
356
Goods imports from Mexico totaled $346.5 billion in 2018 ()
A 5% tariff on that flow of goods amounts to a $17 billion tax increase.
29
218
254
Many economists have evaluated the consequences of the trade war tariffs on the American economy, with results suggesting the tariffs have raised prices and lowered economic output and employment since the start of the trade war in 2018.
4
32
94
3
38
248
“Please explain to the American people the mechanism by which your tariffs will not be tax hikes on consumers but your opponent’s tariffs will.”
THURSDAY, JUNE 27th -- CNN Presidential Debate Simulcast – LIVE at 9pm ET on C-SPAN2
34
57
95
11
59
230
an uncompetitive corporate tax code isn’t the only way to help pay for new spending
@StephenAD5
Crap you’re right, maybe something like this would be better (or what the other person suggested)
5
5
50
6
23
211
Erica York of the Tax Foundation, asked Tuesday about Trump's new statements, told MarketWatch in an email that it's "bonkers" to say that an across-the-board import tax hike would not cause prices to rise and incomes to go down.
9
79
207
Actual studies of the McKinley Tariff Act and following period:
Douglass North (1960b, 199) “on balance, it is doubtful if the tariff promoted American industrialization much more rapidly than would have occurred in its absence, and it is even more doubtful that it resulted in
8
83
211
KS Sen
@JerryMoran
: The Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs have failed to result in significant increases in production of domestic steel and aluminum, but have caused users to reduce manufacturing in the US or relocate production outside our borders
21
56
187
This week I reintroduced my Ultra-Millionaire Tax.
It’s time for millionaires and billionaires to start paying their fair share.
16K
3K
11K
14
44
193
The United States International Trade Commission disagrees:
Tariffs are taxes on FOREIGN producers, not American. Tariffs are what built America. Ripping down tariffs are how globalist elites gutted manufacturing towns in South Carolina. And restoring tariffs are how we bring those jobs back.
2K
1K
3K
5
34
190
U.S. goods imports amounted to nearly $3.3 trillion in 2022.
At that level, a 10% tariff would amount to an annual tax increase of $330 billion.
That's on par with the tax increases President Biden proposes in his budget, but would be significantly more regressive.
New: Trump is vowing an "automatic" 10% tariff on *ALL* imports to US
Calls for "ring" around US economy
Would likely mean global trade war far surpassing his 1st term's
Came up at Bedminster dinner last week w/ top aides, including Kudlow & Gingrich
378
477
1K
11
53
176
Tax reform should simplify the tax code. Instead, Congress is debating new ways to raise revenue that would make the tax code more complex and more difficult to administer.
6
21
171
Our local farmer raised her prices by 50% several months back.
Why? Small town farmer greed, of course, nothing to do with higher feed costs.
Egg prices are up 60%. That’s absurd. People are paying up upwards of $6 and $7 for a dozen eggs.
Why? Corporate greed.
Cal-Maine, the largest egg producer in the US, is raking record profits — $198 million in its latest quarter.
That’s a 65% increase from a year ago.
6K
8K
21K
7
8
170
Hey
#TaxTwitter
! After a great maternity leave with this little gal, I am officially back at
@taxfoundation
today!
3
16
164
Haley is right. Trump’s first trade war hurt American manufacturers, farmers, and consumers—and it didn’t change China.
Doubling down on that failed strategy makes no sense.
Donald Trump wants to tax every American with a 10% across-the-board tariff, costing families an average of $2,600 a year. They’re already paying skyrocketing prices thanks to Biden and Trump’s inflation. We can’t afford this.
6K
567
4K
20
29
157
A new 10% tariff on all imports would reduce GDP by 0.7% and eliminate 505,000 full-time equivalent jobs.
Unfortunately, that would be the tip of the iceberg. Imposing an across-the-board tariff would threaten the entire system of global trade.
14
52
158
Have you ever thought about maybe reevaluating some of those beliefs.
JD Vance: “We believe that a million cheap knockoff toasters aren’t worth the price of a single American manufacturing job. We believe in rebuilding American factories and rebuilding the American dream.”
458
830
4K
19
7
159
And here’s a really fun part. Mexico is our largest supplier of agricultural products: fresh vegetables ($5.9 billion), other fresh fruit ($5.8 billion), wine and beer ($3.6 billion), snack foods ($2.2 billion), and processed fruit & vegetables ($1.7 billion).
11
81
136
Hey Senator, the economists were right about the effects of the 2018-2019 trade war.
Whether you look at the academic literature, Fed studies, or USITC reports, there’s no question that the tariffs cost Americans billions in higher taxes plus lost jobs and output on net.
4
40
141
CBO: Rescinding $14 billion of IRS funding would decrease tax revenues by $26 billion, leading to a deficit increase of $12 billion.
13
46
135
Mexico was the second largest supplier of imports to the United States in 2018. So, we’re imposing a tax on *everything* Americans buy from one of our largest trading partners.
2
74
121
Tariffs are legally paid by the US importer and the burden of the 2018-2019 tariffs fell on US importers, downstream users of imported goods, and consumers.
Also, here's a
@CatoInstitute
primer on how tariffs work from
@ericadyork
:
Key section on who paid Trump's tariffs:
6
42
69
15
41
134
No policy rationale for excluding certain types of labor income from tax.
Why create a tax benefit for the 2.2 million workers employed as waiters and waitresses (median wage of $31,940), but not for the 3.2 million workers employed as cashiers (median wage of $29,720)?
Trump's push to eliminate taxes on tips made it into the RNC platform
8
6
36
9
35
125
The 2018-2019 tariffs have had a net negative impact on the U.S. economy, whether measured by employment, income, or production.
A small sampling of the literature:
Federal Reserve economists Aaron Flaaen and Justin Pierce found a net decrease in manufacturing employment due to
@scottlincicome
3/3
But whether or not they reduce employment, wages, consumption, investment and overall aggregate welfare depends wholly on whether or not those tariffs raise production. That's where the discussion should focus.
3
0
4
8
41
119
Here is a dynamic estimate of Trump’s tariff proposals from
@TaxFoundation
, note the sign on the estimated jobs impact.
Likewise, every credible empirical study of Trump’s imposed tariffs has found higher costs for US consumers and a negative impact on the U.S. economy.
Welker: Do you acknowledge that consumers will ultimately pay more if there are more tariffs. Do you acknowledge that?
Vance: No, I don’t. Economists disagree about the effects of tariffs..
2K
905
6K
19
60
117
Asked about competitiveness with China at Ways and Means, Phil Gramm says, "Well first of all don't imitate China. Don't implement industrial policy here where you assume government knows more about investment than people who are investing their own money. I have been stunned at
2
25
111
This mischaracterizes Tax Foundation's model. When
@oren_cass
asked what our results would be if Trump set the money on fire, I explained that the use of the federal revenue raised doesn't change the tax wedge a tariff creates. It does, however, change the effect on deficits.
@TaxFoundation
Sounds bad! But wait, new tariff revenue goes somewhere. By default, if it's just a tax increase, it would reduce our massive budget deficit. Or you could provide offsetting tax cuts. Trump hasn't specified, but surely an economic model would have to assume something? Nope.
1
1
18
2
28
101
Debt is too high, we’re not reducing the deficit enough, we must take a principled stand and…increase the SALT cap.
*New*
@TaxFoundation
preliminary estimates of
@Jim_Jordan
's proposal to raise the SALT deduction cap from $10,000 to $20,000 (and to $40,000 for joint filers).
This proposal would cost about $54 billion through 2025 and mostly help those earning over $100,000 annually.
47
129
342
6
15
98
Calling the latest round of tariffs “strategic” does not change the underlying reality: these policies are just another form of protectionism, and therefore, subject to all the same economic problems.
6
35
98
Candidate Trump has proposed significant tariff hikes on the campaign trail. We estimate that if imposed, they would hike taxes by $524 billion annually and shrink GDP by at least 0.8%, the capital stock by 0.7%, and employment by 684,000 jobs.
5
46
96
~ e x t r e m e ~ center
Joe Biden is signaling he has no intention of offering cabinet slots to Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. It's the latest sign that the Biden team is planning to govern from the extreme center—and that we'll have to push him to win any progressive gains.
2K
270
1K
4
4
97
Sometimes people ask how the tax code can be so complicated.
You think the tax code just fell out of a coconut tree? It exists in the context of all in which we live and what came before us.
2
7
97
Tariff revenue indeed doubled under the Trump administration but it was paid almost entirely by Americans!
USITC finds full pass through of tariffs to U.S. consumers and notes that their findings are consistent with the academic literature on the tariffs.
President Trump in New Hampshire: "I took on communist China like no administration in history, bringing in hundreds of billions of dollars, pouring right into our treasury -- when no other president in all of these years had ever gotten ten cents."
2K
624
2K
7
25
95
When everything is infrastructure, every week is infrastructure week.
Health care is infrastructure.
Housing is infrastructure.
Child care is infrastructure.
Elder care is infrastructure.
361
2K
12K
9
6
90
If the tariff on imports from Mexico reaches 25%, we’d be looking at a significant tax increase—nearly $87 billion.
6
48
83
Many economists have evaluated the consequences of the trade war tariffs on the American economy, with results suggesting the tariffs have raised prices and lowered economic output and employment since the start of the trade war in 2018.
4
32
94
when we said the campaigns needed to talk about policy, this is not what we meant
7
8
91
did you try looking?
i'm seeing a lot of econ people dunk on the Harris campaign for a silly anti-price gouging policy, which i do agree is silly
but i can't help but wonder why i haven't see anywhere near this level of pushback against Donald Trump's proposed 20% universal tariff
242
282
5K
1
13
88
New
@TaxFoundation
distributional estimates:
Trump's proposed 10% universal tariff plus 60% China tariff would reduce after-tax income by 1.5% on average, and by a smaller 1.2% for the top 1% of taxpayers.
4
41
89
"While the U.S. has never been a laissez-faire paradise, more than other countries it believed in free-market capitalism and let efficiency and profits determine the allocation of capital.
"Neither Donald Trump nor President Biden believe in that. Both are happy to use all the
4
23
87
Trump’s new tariffs alone would offset about three-fourths of the benefit of full TCJA permanence. Factor in foreign retaliation and it turns a net loss for the economy. Trade wars are not a way to pay for tax reform.
5
28
85
In 2018, we imported $93 billion of vehicles, $64 billion of electrical machinery, $63 billion of machinery, $16 billion of mineral fuels, and $15 billion of optical and medical instruments from Mexico.
4
37
75
Yesterday
@adameyork
and I were afraid we were coming down with something. Turns out he mistakenly brewed decaf coffee beans two days in a row.
3
1
80
The individual income tax raises about $2 trillion annually on a tax base of personal income of roughly $15 trillion.
Customs duties currently raise about $80 billion annually on imports of $3.4 trillion.
Trump brought up the idea of an “all tariff policy” that would lead to getting rid of the income tax, per sources in the room.
161
92
301
7
23
79
A consumption tax, of course!
I get being upset about the unrealized capital gains tax. Especially, like, startup/VC people.
But if we didn’t have it, what would stop wealthy investors from simply borrowing against their assets, allowing them to consume tax free in a way that’s unavailable go wage earners?
1K
229
3K
4
19
79
We have a new
@TaxFoundation
report out today detailing how a permanent overhaul of the income tax system could reduce economic, administrative, and compliance costs and lead to improvements in the well-being of families and children.
4
29
80
New
@TaxFoundation
modeling: we estimate the tax proposals in President Biden’s FY2025 budget would substantially increase marginal tax rates on investment, saving, and work, reducing economic output by 2.2% in the long run, wages by 1.6%, and employment by 788,000 full-time
5
38
74
Almost like
@scottlincicome
was right—Tariffs not only impose immense economic costs but also fail to achieve their primary policy aims and foster political dysfunction along the way.
3
10
71
The mistake I see being made is to go from “tariffs aren’t inflationary” to “tariffs don’t impact prices.” Tariffs increase relative prices of tariffed goods, and that’s like the whole point!
But to Oren's point, there's a difference between one time price level jump (tariff effect) and inflation
3
0
16
7
11
76
Lincoln Russell York
Born at home on July 29
6 pounds 3 ounces
20 inches
👶🥰👶🥰
7
0
73
It's my last week of work before going on maternity leave for the rest of the year. (!) Incredibly grateful to
@TaxFoundation
for providing ample time off to spend with our new little guy, who could come any day now!
4
0
72
🚨 New
@TaxFoundation
estimates:
Trump's proposed combination of tariffs and tax cuts could shrink the economy and grow the national debt.
5
40
72
Reducing the deficit will require tough choices, but whether to raise the corporate tax rate is not one of them. It should be an easy payfor to cross off the list.
5
14
68
Or, hear me out, we could tax carbon and maybe, you know, tax consumption of wealthy individuals?
5
7
66
Friday news dump: failed solar panel tariffs renewed for another four years.
1
11
65
A 28% rate would result in a combined rate that is higher than every country in the OECD, the G7, and all our major trading partners and competitors including China.
.
@POTUS
says "no one should be able to complain" about a 28% corporate tax rate. Says 35% was too high, but 21% is too low.
3
3
9
6
24
66
One argument for higher corporate taxes is that the capital share of income is at a historic high. But the argument relies on gross income measures, ignoring that some of what is counted in income doesn’t actually accrue to labor or capital. 🧵
2
13
64
Income transfer programs amplify the U.S. federal tax system’s progressivity, move the state and local system from moderate regressivity to moderate progressivity, and result in a highly progressive fiscal system overall.
The lowest quintile of Americans receives a net of 127
This should really be more progressive than it is. I don't see much of a reason to make the poorest 20% of people pay 17% of their income to the government.
239
94
2K
1
29
65
my favorite shill receipt, in reference to a blog post I wrote about Trump's 10 percent universal tariff idea. vote for me!
1
7
59
Break it down. Tariffs make foreign goods more expensive. We substitute toward more expensive domestic goods + send fewer $ abroad. Currency appreciates so exporters bear some burden + higher domestic costs reduce real income. Net result is lower output.
@TaxFoundation
@AEI
Another way tariffs aren't regular taxes is that they specifically make domestic goods relatively more attractive than foreign-made goods to consume. What effect might that have on the economy? The model can't tell us, because it doesn't even recognize this effect is occurring.
7
2
26
3
19
64
The Republican plan to increase middle class taxes by hiking tariffs is not only a huge tax increase but also mathematically implausible and economically devastating
136
218
955
0
18
64
Ten-year cost of permanent ARPA CTC = $1.6 trillion
Ten-year cost of permanently canceling R&D amortization = $131 billion
A one-year extension of the Child Tax Credit expansion would cost roughly the same amount as another corporate tax break for research that the Senate almost unanimously approved.
2
0
4
4
8
62
A higher corporate tax rate is one of the worst ways to raise revenue. If your plan is to cut one distortionary tax, only to partially replace it with an even more distortionary tax, you’re not doing tax reform.
“There’s a bubbling-up concern that we should not be doing the bidding of corporate America,” said Rep. Chip Roy, who says he’d consider kicking the corporate rate up to 25 percent.. if it means extending breaks for individuals and small businesses.”
5
24
66
3
19
63
Lots happening today, including my first day back at
@TaxFoundation
after 5.5 months of maternity leave! I’m thankful to have had so much time off with my family, and I’m very excited to get back to work!
2
0
60
🧵The tax code has historically contained two provisions to incentivize R&D: 1) the ability to fully recover the cost of R&D expenses with immediate deductions and 2) the R&D tax credit.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 directly changed 1, it did not directly change 2.
3
12
57
Odd behavior from American businesses if tariffs actually have no effect on the U.S. economy.
Fox host: Economists are saying Trump's plan to exact tariffs on things like gas, clothing, and other basic goods will drive up prices for Americans
Vance: Well, Shannon, I don't buy that
2K
3K
11K
1
16
58
Trade wars are not good, nor are they easy to win.
Canada already in talks to avoid Trump tariffs
Fearing difficult negotiations, Canadian official sends retaliatory tariff warning
12
40
76
0
4
59
Here’s a tip: don’t do that.
New: GOP senators Ted Cruz, Rick Scott, Steve Daines and Kevin Cramer just introduced the “No Tax on Tips Act.”
It is an idea Trump recently embraced and has sparked chatter among Republicans.
Full text of the 3-page bill 👇
92
56
198
3
5
55
Our tax code is bewilderingly complex. Americans will spend more than 6.5 billion hours complying with IRS filing and reporting requirements. That's equivalent to more than 3.1 million full-time workers doing nothing but filing tax forms all year long.
7
17
55
Not surprising! This was the campaign’s response when my analysis at
@TaxFoundation
said the 10% tariff would raise taxes on American consumers by hundreds of billions of dollars per year.
Here is the Trump campaign response--like the "blood bath" comment, they make it about electric vehicles.
This demonstrates they can't defend the 10% tariff itself--$1,300 of the $1,500 tax increase is in *non-auto* imports. They want to tax bananas and coffee because of EVs?!
2
7
13
6
17
55
You mean nearly all of the increased tariff revenue paid by US importers in 2018 and 2019 went to compensate US producers who lost agricultural exports because of the trade war?
5. US provides $20B in legally-dubious subsidies to politically powerful farmers that lost export sales
5
9
65
3
16
54
Developer is proposing a few more duplexes and fourplexes in the neighborhood across the street. Local neighborhood Facebook group is blind with rage, except for me.
0
2
53
No it doesn’t.
Let me give you the facts.
In 2020, 55 corporations made $40 billion. And they paid zero in federal taxes.
My Inflation Reduction Act puts an end to this.
13K
9K
39K
2
3
48
The Biden Admin and Trump are both bad on tariffs.
A cool thing is that Katherine Tai also says this and it's extremely not true
3
11
50
5
14
65
🧵 IRS data on taxes paid for 2021 shows shows the federal income tax system continues to be progressive.
6
29
51
Biden and Trump Are Both Disastrously Wrong About Tariffs
1
7
50
Great news: Biden’s tariff proposal is only a fraction as dumb as Trump’s tariff proposal.
The ~$2 billion in Chinese steel the President is targeting is less than 0.1% of the $3,200 billion in imported goods the Trump across-the-board tariff targets.
1
3
14
3
11
49
Covered
@TaxFoundation
's presidential tax tracker on
@SquawkCNBC
Unfortunate reality: candidates lack detailed tax plans, have no clear answers on TCJA expirations and worsening fiscal situation, and some are floating harmful ideas like universal tariffs.
2
7
47
This is not breaking news, it is how the tax system already works.
That video has now been removed
JD Vance also said: "If you are making $100,000, $400,000 a year and you've got three kids, you should pay a different, lower tax rate than if you are making the same amount of money and you don't have any kids. It's that simple"
@wsteaks
195
30
153
1
12
48
Proponents of tariffs will tell you the goal is increasing production or employment, but tariffs in practice are never about accomplishing that for the economy overall—their purpose is to enrich protected firms at an exorbitant price to others.
Biden calls for tripling of tariffs on Chinese steel as he tries to boost his union support in key swing state of Pennsylvania
17
53
98
2
24
47
My
#CatoGlobalization
essay on tariffs is out today.
Some talk of tariffs as if they can raise revenue for the government and make citizens more prosperous and business endeavors more productive. But it is dubious to claim tariffs can be imposed with no economic trade‐offs. 🧵
4
26
48
It’s not silly to explain how tariffs affect prices when one of the oft-repeated arguments from proponents of tariffs is that tariffs don’t affect prices.
8/8
goods, for example, can benefit factory and office workers at the expense of farmers.
But to argue against tariffs because they raise the price of imported goods is just silly. Of course they do. That is precisely how they work.
8
9
113
4
9
47