Jon Bryant
@JonBryant421
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Opinion, analysis of interesting topics; not investment advice. CFA, former buyside, sellside securities professsional. Startup survivor.
Joined February 2019
@motown5203 @LemonSturgis Would love to hear specifics. If anything Obama was too diplomatic and cautious. This does not square with reality. It's a rewriting of history.
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@PossiblyReality @Lisiecki_ @grimpost @JasonWard23 @iamcogs No one has ever seen an accidental fall by a QB be called down in that situation. This is the dumbest argument. The intent of the rule is clear. Additionally, it was not an immediate kneel.
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None of them can explain why a CEO deserves a pay package that is greater than the cumulative earnings of company. This is particularly egregious when the pay package was earned on the back of underinvestment that is causing current earnings to collapse. The fans have no answers.
BREAKING: The Norway State Pension Fund, one of the world’s largest pension fund, has just said they will vote against Elon Musk’s new $TSLA Tesla $56B compensation package. They own about 1% of all shares outstanding. I can’t imagine what Elon is feeling. This is
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Tesla is blackberry, the upstart independent that had the lead and blew it.
Tesla's FSD is like the iPhone rocking up to the Nokia/Motorola/Blackberry party. Wall Street is panicking. The Media is printing 100 Elon Bad news stories every day. Stock is selling off. "OMG! Q1 gross margins!". "Sales were a bit low in March!". "Oh no! Layoffs!".
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So Tesla bragged all these years about having a data advantage. Now they tell us they couldn't train on all that data?. It's a joke what this investor base will buy.
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@motown5203 @LemonSturgis That is true as a general statement. I have asked for specifics for years. I have never been offered it. At some point, you began to believe it is a story that is without basis. Happy to reconsider but I paid close attention and folks got upset about the mildest comments.
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Tesla has no major breakthroughs in battery tech or autonomy after 20 years. Please think before you call Tesla a great innovator. It’s impressive to start a successful car corp but the stock is a bubble. Toyota sell 5x more vehicles at a higher op mgn yet has 1/3rd the mkt cap.
@elonmusk @astro_greek Absolutely! Shorting Tesla, with its consistent innovation and growth, seems counterintuitive. @elonmusk's vision and determination drive success.
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The delusion of Tesla fans is unrelated to Tesla actual performance. Tesla is not in the conversation on autonomy. It is not in the top 5. It’s not relevant.
Cars are about to go through their “iPhone moment,” as it all converges down to two companies, Tesla and Google.
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@PossiblyReality @Lisiecki_ @grimpost @JasonWard23 @iamcogs Yes. That’s twitter. Wasn’t replying to you.
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Your tweet is a disgrace. You don’t even attempt to discuss the legal merits of the case. You just add to the rage and ignorance that is killing this country. I hope you are proud.
Delaware judge ruling is a disgrace. Activist judges should not be able to overrule shareholders. This should be obvious.
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Musk seems to be melting down. Bad news coming….
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That's not investing, That's a religion.
Investing in $TSLA comes down to 1 question:. Do you trust Elon Musk?.
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If you are casual observer of Tesla, this video tells you everything you need to know about many Tesla fans. They are unwilling to admit facts that are even on tape if it might mean something negative about Tesla. This is negative for the stock & dangerous to others.
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No, Tesla is not using price as a strategic weapon. It’s much simpler. Tesla has promised a certain amount of unit growth. It can’t achieve that growth without repeated price cuts. Anyone who says different is being dishonest or delusional. This isn’t a close call. $tsla.
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Elon killed Tesla yesterday. He wanted to make this bet with the Y. This is a do or die decision for the company. Not worth putting all eggs in one basket. Even if the tech could get there soon (unlikely) the legal and regulatory challenges are unpredictable.
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Hard to believe he actually believed that. If he did he is not really that smart.
"If you buy a Tesla today I believe you are buying an appreciating asset, not a depreciating asset.” fElon 4/2019 to support a multi-billion $ capital raise & perpetrate a fraud. Video where he claims:
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When does he lose credibility in autonomy? 10 years of promises? 15 years?. When?.
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Tesla is six years ahead of everyone else…except the leaders.
The Hyundai Ioniq 6 is the fastest charging EV we've tested at almost 900 miles per charging hour, with the fastest Tesla barely making it into the top 10.
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Tesla battery tech is years ahead…oh wait.
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BYD isn’t so much undervalued as Tesla.is overvalued. Many Tesla investors are not aware of the basic financials of the company. The margin.story is flipping towards BYD and Tesla ‘24 estimates continue to be cut.
Interesting comparison, if BYD is an America company what would the market cap be? $TSLA
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He is lying.
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Stop pretending this is a question. This is idiotic management. Tesla’s operating margin has been decimated. Other OEMs have not suffered like Tesla many have improved financial performance. The desire to want to make it genius is truly amazing. It’s brand destroying and dumb.
The most dramatic price cuts the world has ever witnessed. Crazy or genius. You decide.
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So, let's get this straight. Likely no EV tax credit in the US in 2022, a 30% reduction in China, lower incentive in Britain and no new models for $tsla. Meanwhile, competitors are launching dozens of models and will benefit from an easing of the chip shortage.
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There is delusion and then there is this. Tesla has failed at autonomy. This is a desperate lie. Zoox is a follower in autonomy, 171k miles/disengagement, and Tesla is at 150 miles. This is an insanely stupid and dishonest post. Tesla is an unadulterated joke in autonomy.
Every auto boardroom, every c-suite exec at every auto company has a fiduciary responsibility to decide quickly if they should be spending a dollar more on their own R&D effort or partner w/ @Tesla_ai … FSD V13.2
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Reminder - There are multiples companies that are at Level 4. The competition is between the current Level 4 companies. Level 2 companies like Tesla.are irrelevant.
Zoox (Amazon) is launching fully autonomous passenger rides in SF “very soon”. They’re SW limited to 45MPH, in the city only to start. Car has no steering wheel and is fully symmetrical- it can drive in either direction. They are launching their own network, not partnering.
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This can not be real. Someone really thinks Tesla can compete at all in this market. Just unbeleiveable.
CNN thinks the competition, in this case, is Boston Dynamics. Why is Boston Dynamics a competitor? Do people want to buy a robot for $100k to watch them do gymnastic tricks? How big is that market? . Such a stupid headline. There is no market or competition for Bot.
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@JamesSurowiecki Yes that will just take an extra 30-60 minutes a day. Just lets rich folks move around more easily.
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Most investors lose money because they are afraid to admit they are wrong. Tesla is not on track to be a leader jn auto volume. Tesla is not even in the autonomy discussion. Its time to believe your eyes and stop listening to the cult.
Prediction:. $TSLA will become the most valuable company in the world within 5 years. Most likely, much sooner. We are in a dark storm. Sometimes… one must walk through the storm, and in doing so will come out stronger on the other side. People who use or understand the
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Imagine if in 2019, I said that Tesla’s self-driving abilities would be so bad that in 5 years it would cut the price to $99. The fans would’ve screamed FUD, FUD and tried to have me strung up. Now they are saying it’s bullish. Very intellectually flexible, I guess.
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missing the main point aren’t we? This is a no growth stock that trades at 200 times PE in an industry that trades in single digits.
Ross Gerber says the $TSLA delivery numbers “suck”. They missed expectations by 2% lol. I get that they used many incentives, but if they had missed by 10-15%, I could understand the reaction being as negative. Street wanted 505K, they did 495K in a year that started with them
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Tesla is buying batteries from the world’s leading EV manufacturer. I remember when bulls said that Tesla was worth more than all the other auto OEMs because it would be the top EV seller &be selling batteries to others. Does BYD now deserve that valuation? $tsla is overvalued.
BYD is now the world's largest EV manufacturer.
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This is accounting fraud.
@Tesla @handelsblatt @CNBC @lorakolodny @faizsays @BradMunchen @bayamaya68120 @Presserom @Reuters @specialreports @StanphylCap From the recent @Reuters whistleblower report we got confirmation of the $TSLA suspension claims reported by @tesla drivers over the yrs. The last confirmation we need’s the one of accounting fraud, related to scrap parts misreporting. Here🧵 from 2018 ‼️
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Tesla has next to no chance to be one of the earliest with autonomous vehicles. It is so far behind that it should stop the effort.
If Tesla solves autonomy with FSD, they'll very likely solve general purpose humanoid robots with Optimus.
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Imagine being a $700 billion mkt cap company and selling away your last moat for a few billion dollars over 5-10 years.
Tesla stands to earn as much as $3 billion by 2030 thanks to deals with Ford and GM for their electric vehicles to use its charging network, according to Piper Sandler
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Tesla isn’t ahead anywhere. Tesla isn’t restricted geographically because it’s only Level 2. If Tesla ever applied for a Level 4 permit, it would be geographically limited. What an incredible.self-own. Tesla fans try to muddy the waters to distract from the fact that Tesla failed
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Extremely delusional. Tesla has received more unwarranted favorable coverage than just about any company in history.
CNBC is working overtime to push anything negative they can regarding $TSLA. Until that ends, it's hard for Tesla to climb. They know certain keywords said online or printed get picked up by the trading bots and they are clever at using them. It's legal but they are out of line.
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Compete with Optimus? There is no Optimus available.
Do you believe Figure 02 can compete with @Tesla's Optimus? The company previously collaborated with @BMW, and this upgraded version integrates speech communication capabilities through a collaboration with @OpenAI. See the video. I wonder what your thoughts are! #AI
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A thread on Tesla’s regulatory credit situation. $FCAU reported today and it clears up much of the mystery on two big issues. Was there some new source of Tesla’s regulatory credits?.How much more is $tslaq likely to get paid from FCA after this year?.Answers-No, much less.1/.
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Tesla gets no revenue from AI/Robotics. If you want to incluse those as moonshots for a company that can’t consistently get wipers to work correctly, ok. To call it an AI Robotics company is just false.
BYD & Tesla are not similar. @Tesla is an AI/Robotics company that have their first mass produced robot on 4 wheels. BYD is a battery company that make cars. Highly manual assembly, huge company headcount, & hardware focused vs software / AI / robotics centered ala $TSLA.
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Good thing there is no IP just faked videos of college level robotics assignments.
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Tesla is nothing at all like Apple. Tesla has low quality. Apple has high quality. Tesla pushes vaporware. Apple is secretive about products. Apple successfully refreshes its products. Hard to think of two companies so diametrically opposed to each other.
TSLAQ cultists constantly compare Tesla to legacy automakers. They probably forgot Apple used to be compared to Nokia because they both make phones. The question they need to ask themselves is which legacy automaker pledged to spend $10B on AI infrastructure in 2024 like Tesla.
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So incredibly absurd. An AI company?.
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@Bullskickass She has been the leading candidate pretty consistently if you look across the various outlets.
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This is sad and will end in tears. There are no reasons to believe that Tesla will have share and high margins long term. Say you like Tesla a lot. That’s great but don’t pretend like you have done fundamental work and determined it’s likely to perform well from here.
Feeling sad for all who cannot see the amazing investment opportunity that $tsla offers today for at least the next decade. The margin. revenue and profits will be unbelievable and unreal to most, but unfortunately, not all have the skills and ability to see through the noise.
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Tesla has gotten a little 1% share over 10 years. Now it has multiple months backlog and this analyst claims that is reason enough to expect it to dominate the industry. That is clearly not a serious argument. $tsla.
The case for $TSLA: “The facts are: The auto industry is a $2.5 trillion market. @Tesla is one of the few companies that is a leader there. And, they have an outsized demand for their products.”
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“Every Tesla has failed to hit its EPA est.”. Tesla’s stated EPA ranges are misleading.
Real-World EV range test latest:.* Ford Lightning Lariat goes 345 miles on a single charge.* Jaguar I-Pace is more efficient than expected.* There are now 18 EVs that can go 300+ miles.* Every Tesla has failed to hit its EPA est.
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Tesla is valued at multiples of Toyota. Tesla sells 1/5th at lower margins and has no growth. It is insane.
Toyota aims for a new production record: 10.2 million vehicles worldwide this year.
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The robotaxi business has next to no relevance for Tesla. Dozens of companies are testing or operating Level 4 vehicles. Tesla is not one of them. It is absurd to believe it will leapfrog all of these firms when it has yet to start any autonomous testing.
Robotaxi Implications - First, Second & Third Order.I recently had an in-depth discussion about this with Herbert Ong (video link in the comments below), but here are some highlights. 1) It fundamentally changes Tesla's business model. Wall Street will need to fire the auto
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Sometimes I think Alex is an undercover parody account. Tesla has done nothing to show any real capabilities in robotics.
If you believe the humanoid Robot Atlas from Boston Dynamics is ahead of the Tesla Optimus because of its admittedly impressive movements, ask yourself when was the last time you saw two workers in a factory doing a simultaneous backflip onto a table.
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Why would Buffet buy a cash flow negative car company with declining earnings and potential liability for vaporware for a PE of more than 8?.
Imagine asking a value investor who's hoarding records amount of cash these days to invest in $TSLA now.🤦♂️
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Wow! Even Dan Ives says Tesla has a demand problem. When you lose Dan Ives, the writing is on the wall. Don’t worry he still clowns himself by saying it is a short-term demand problem in China. When does the ENDING of an EV subsidy coincide w/short term demand problems?.
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Factually false. Tesla is losing EV share in every major market even with massive price declines.
The most under-hyped vehicles right now:. Hybrids. Consumer adoption has been sky-rocketing. Market share of Hybrids has grown from 6.5% to 11.4% since last year. EV market share has grown at ~1/5th of that rate, for context. Look, here’s the deal -. Tesla will likely.
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This is brand destruction in action.
Congrats to the Model S, the first $TSLA vehicle line to see its used price index on CarGurus fall in half from the peak! Model X on pace to be there this month as well.
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@DrDGrossman Seems like maybe he should have searched for peer reviewed papers before making such a strong statement.
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So stupid on so many levels. How does using your car 5x more per day increase the utility by 5x? Vehicles have a useful life that’s primarily constrained by the distance and type of driving. Using it as a robotaxi does not change that.
BREAKING: Elon Musk says he thinks $TSLA is “quite close” to achieving full autonomy with Full Self-Driving. 👀. The next 5 years will be fascinating. This is from a recent speech at Bosch Connected World Conference, discussing the impact of AI, Tesla FSD, and other topics.
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This is one of the things that is the most annoying about the Tesla bulls. They are completely self-unaware. They make unfounded bullish speculation that usually is proven wrong (4680s, CT launch). They call well-informed analysis FUD. I believe they honestly don’t even get it.
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Lol! whatever you think of Elon, he is not cautious. Nor does he believe that anyone is as smart as he is. The chance that Elon isn't just winging it is low. Elon has a signed deal. The most likely situation is that Elon believes he is above the law.
Elon wouldn’t have terminated the Twitter deal without prior consultation with the best lawyers in the world. Twitter is screwed. And truth will come out how much of a scam Twitter is. Will be in court for years. $tsla.
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Tesla has no major breakthroughs in battery tech or autonomy despite promises to do so. It has failed at its first non-auto business. Why are we still pretending like it’s a tech company that will dominate other verticals? That thesis has been tested. It’s just a niche auto OEM.
The Tesla $TSLA community keeps comparing Tesla to legacy automakers. This is the wrong comparison. Tesla is a technology company. They are valued more than every other auto company combined. They must execute on their past promises and communicate effectively to investors to.
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If this product doesn't get shutdown than something is really wrong. Recalls have been made for much, much less.
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Tesla fans - FSD is safe because drivers are hyper aware given how bad it is. 🤦♂️.
And yet, we don't hear about crashes causing injury with Tesla FSD. That's bc the drivers must be hyper-aware and in control of their vehicles. $TSLA FSD is safe.
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I can't stop laughing. Remember when Tesla was not just a car company but a chip company? Now its an AI company because it buys a lot of chips, lmao. The company's identity pivots faster than the announcements in 1984. Sadly, the fans believe just as much as they always do.
These are called moonshots. You assign a low probability and add a small premium to the valuation. This is particularly true if you failed as badly at your fist nonauto biz as Tesla did with Solar. Also, if you can't get windshield wipers to work reliably AI may be a stretch.
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There is no evidence that Tesla can get close to a successful Level 4 car. Their disengagement rate is a joke. Comparing imaginary products to real one is absurd. Let me try. Waymo’s sensor cost will decline to be just $200 more than Tesla’s cameras. Tesla can’t match the safety.
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Not one objective person is waiting on Tesla. Its game over.
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This is absurd. Tesla is much more likely to have FSD recalled than licensing it. It is dangerous software that needs to be pulled. Features need to be tested more rigorously before release.
Elon has used the term 'Supervised Full Self-Driving' in a recent interview. To me, this sounds like a realization that Driverless FSD is still years away. Therefore, they want to promote Supervised FSD and maybe try to license it to other manufacturers.
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Four times more likely to get into an accident than other hertz cars, but please do go on with the anecdote.
Teslas are the safest cars. I was at a huge modeling job when the photographer stood up with a microphone and told all the models and crew that Tesla had saved his life and those of his family. A truck had slammed into the back of his Tesla and landed on top of his car. He and.
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Tesla has never created a breakthrough in battery tech or autonomy. The improvement in FSD is extremely slow. Energy storage is not a great long term business. There is $600b in mkt cap related to nonauto, non storage biz. Tesla is not close to justifying that mkt cap.
$TSLA has been *basically* flat for the past 4 years. You can buy it for the same price as you could buy it in 2020 December. But let's compare some numbers and the business itself. 2020 June EPS: $0.42.2024 June EPS: $0.03.BUT: for the past 6 quarters, the EPS has been
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This is delusional. Tesla has failed at autonomy. It has an ADAS. Waymo is at 500k between crashes. Tesla is at 82 miles between critical disengagements. Not even its own customers want it. These folks are shameless. The SP already includes the assumption that Tesla solves RTs.
Tesla has built Windows for cars. The stock market hasn’t figured it out yet. Consumers have no idea what this means. For decades every car has needed a human operator to drive manually, wasting hours of time every day. In a few years every single new car in the world will be.
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You can smell the desperation as everyone realizes what those paying attention knew, FSD is an overhyped fraud. Elon said Level 5 when feature-complete just before raising money last year. Now feature complete is Level 2. @GerberKawasaki defend something else. FSD is indefensible.
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This is a joke. This is Apple saying it’s a terrible business. Tesla has no stranglehold. Not not #1 in China the largest market, not #1 in the 2nd largest EV market, not #1 in the world. Not meaningfully growing revenue with low and collapsing operating margins.
We also believe this is an indirect nod to EV leader Tesla with Apple recognizing that the stronghold grip on the EV market would make it very difficult for Apple to emerge as a very successful OEM (even with a partner). Softer EV environment and price wars also key factors 👇.
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The cope is amazing. Tesla has a joke of a product, if any at all. The fans think that if they compare Tesla against the leader that makes Tesla a player. Tesla is irrelevant in robotics. Comparing FSD to Waymo doesn’t make Tesla relevant in autonomy either.
Help me understand the use case of the Boston Dynamics Atlas bot from this demo? Men’s gymnastics Olympic team?. I’ll take @Tesla_Optimus hand dexterity and uneven surface walking demos in terms of real world value…
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This is about the law. Do you have any shame whatsoever? Are independent BoDs American? What about truth?.
I believe the Delaware court decision, forcing #Tesla to void the March 2018 vote on Elon Musk’s performance-based pay package, is un-American, an assault on investor rights, and an insult to the Board of Directors of one of the most stunningly successful companies in US history.
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Why do fans keep repeating easily debunked lies? Tesla has some of the lowest margins in the industry. Ex-EV credits their op mgns are well below GM and near Ford’s.
@BradMunchen The prices are supposed to go down over time. That's the plan. As production numbers go up, prices will inevitably be reduced. This ensures that the company sells every car it produces. Tesla has some of the highest margins in the industry. They won't be losing money.
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This argument that the car can be used more hours of the day is completely idiotic. Car longevity is based primarily on mileage.
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Toyota has higher margins and much higher revenue. Tesla shouldn't be close to the market cap of Toyota. Energy is lumpy and tiny.
$TSLA is almost being valued as Toyota. While $TSLA is:. 1. Growing 80% YOY in energy. 2. FSD human-like rollout. 3. Has the highest EV profit margins in the game. 4. Compact car around the corner. 5. Growing a solid 30% YOY (will be higher once FSD, energy, and compact car
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@SawyerMerritt Literally, almost nothing in this tweet is true. -Tesla is losing share in the important mkts (Ch, EU).-Tesla missed expectations for earnings & rev growth by Wall ST every year ( more than a year ahead).-You can argue the Berlin factory is on time (VW has 10 plants building EVs).
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When do Tesla fans stop tweeting ridiculous graphs like this?. It’s sad.
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Thanks I needed the laugh. How many cars will they sell then?.
$TSLA will be the only automaker by 2025.
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Elon - Tesla is basically worthless without FSD success. ARK - Tesla is worth 50% of the US GDP without FSD. ARK is just amazingly irresponsible. (I am being kind.) I am furious that these folks get treated like serious people.
According to @TashaARK’s and @skorusARK’s research, $TSLA does not need autonomous ride hail to be a success: the EV opportunity alone is enormous.
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This delusion is thick. A year when profits are falling and revenue is flat a fan says this. Tesla has next to zero chance.
Tesla is the only large-cap publicly traded stock I know of that has the realistic opportunity to grow 10-fold, or 100% per year, over the next 10 years. $tsla. Don't complain in the future that you missed it because I told you so today.
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Remember when Tesla fans claimed EM was fighting big oil. Good times. Now he is pals with the biggest of big oil Russia and Saudi Arabia. Still his fans will defend him.
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This is sad. A car stock that trades at 135x GAAP earnings and has failed to.deliver promised breakthrough tech. Tesla.has to do so much to justify the current valuation it is almost impossible.
Is 300 shares of $TSLA going to make you a millionaire in 10 years?
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Complete and utter disrespect for those that believe him. Three years from now…Your honor he lied about autonomy for 10 years. How could any person take him seriously?. Yet fans will argue that he is.
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is this a joke? Tesla has had to slash prices to stay at a whopping about 2.5% market share.
"Electric Vehicles aren't selling", they say. "Electric Vehicles are not in Demand," they proclaim. "People don't want EV's," they shout. Meanwhile as some car companies may be pulling back on production, Tesla Is blowing out expectations, selling nearly 500,000 vehicles in a
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Show me someone that doesn’t understand that robots have been used in car production for several decades. It’s amazing how easily you can fool people when they want a stock to rise.
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The rate of SUA complaints is off the charts. It doesn’t matter who doesn’t buy it. There is a lot of smoke. Why should anyone take the risk that there is a problem?.
So she tapped on the accelerator and her car somehow went full launch mode, was unable to brake, and slammed in the back of another car? Yeah I don’t buy it. Thoughts on this?
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@rkorny This is correct. From an economic standpoint this will not be anything like 2008. There is not the same kind of leverage. We risked a global depression. This is more akin 2000 when indescribably dumb valuations were taken outback and shot. Same thing. It’s predictable & warranted.
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@SemenzaMatthew1 @Bullskickass Yeah, sure buddy. That's when people started giving her a hard time. What did you think of the cheap shot that CC gave Chennedy and the trash talk?.
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Why, because it is securities and consumer fraud. It is a stain on the US that it has gone on this long.
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@CourtneyRCronin Some discount character. This kid has it. It’s an intangible and I think it’s why he hasn’t been broken by his experience in. Chicago. The losing streak could’ve completely killed him.
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It's almost like Tesla is not a key AV player. It has lost ground.
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Teslas don't drive autonomously! Never have! Tesla said they won't anytime soon. This is pure fiction. Tesla is the first to admit it. Just stop the nonsense.
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Aren’t all Teslas going to be robotaxis?. What is the dedicated robotaxi for?. Will Tesla compete with its owners?. Will Tesla give these cars better hardware?.
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OMG, the last season of twitter is the best.
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I am just so disgusted with this behavior. They are clueless or lying or both. This thing does well, no it does not. Going for an hour without a disengagement is not good. Going for three years without a minor disengagement is a good thing. Tesla is so far away from that.
These guys are trying to prove that Tesla FSD is better than Waymo and their car attempts to murder them no less than 3 separate times lmfao. You gotta see the ending too
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