Cern Basher
@CernBasher
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Playing with ideas. Co-Founder & Chief Investment Officer at Brilliant Advice - My posts here are Not Financial Advice
Sarasota, FL
Joined March 2011
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For those that may have missed my earlier posts on humanoid bots, here's a compendium of some relevant posts... a 23 part thread...
1) A deflation machine
2) An economic reboot
3) Humanoid bot motto
4) Bot napkin math at massive scale
5) Bot market vs EV market
6) Humanoid bots
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$25 Trillion Market Cap just from Bots - Why I Think Elon is Off by an Order of Magnitude
Yesterday, Elon took us through the math of how he arrives at a potential valuation of $25 trillion just for Optimus:
1) The bot industry could build 1 billion bots per year and if Tesla
Elon Musk Talks $TSLA Optimus Robots' Deployment at 2024 Annual Shareholder Meeting!
• Tesla's Optimus robots are currently in action at their Fremont Factory. These robots handle cells and place them in shipping containers.
• Elon Musk anticipates having over a thousand
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Imagine the affordability of leasing or renting a Tesla Bot once Tesla achieves large-scale production...
Picture this: a Tesla Bot could be yours for as little as $40 per day.
With bot working tirelessly for 16 hours a day, the cost breaks down to a mere $2.50 per hour.
It's
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Robotaxi Implications: Second and Third order effects
Here's how I see it...
1) Initially the Robotaxi undercuts Uber/Lift. This is easy pickings.
2) Then the Robotaxi undercuts vehicle ownership - increasingly leading people to ditch their vehicles. If the vast majority of
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On Investor Day a few months ago, Zach Kirkhorn, Tesla's CFO, mentioned that Tesla plans on spending $150 to $175 billion by 2030 to build factories so they can make 20 million vehicles and 1,000 gigawatt hours of battery storage per year. Currently, Tesla has built the capacity
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A Message to Tesla Investors
Recently, I received this reply to one of my posts:
"I don't think I can mentally or emotionally deal with it anymore. Maybe foolishly waiting for 10/10 to make a move, though at this point I'm sick of predictions and missed timelines."
As someone
Tesla's Major Stock Moves - Two Big Gains Came Quickly
First TSLA Epoch
The stock made a new high on 1/28/2013 at a split adjusted price of $2.53 and by 9/30/2013 it rose to $12.89 - for a 5x gain.
Second TSLA Epoch
The stock bottomed on 6/3/2019 at a split adjusted price of
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Cybertruck conversation with an almost 7-year old
My daughter: “Are we going to keep it forever, or are we just renting?”
Me: “It’s ours”
Daughter: “Yay!”
@cybertruck
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Is Tesla an Auto Company or an AI-powered Robot Company?
The answer depends on whether you’re looking at today versus the future. Or whether you rent ("trade") or own ("buy and hold") the stock.
Currently, Tesla derives most of its revenues from selling EVs, as the company will
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Is Tesla having an impact?
You betcha!
With more than 5.5 million Teslas sold since 2012 here's a rough estimate* of the annualized impact of all those Teslas:
1) 2.3 billion fewer gallons of gas consumed. With a corresponding reduction in carbon emissions, noise and brake
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Two takeaways from Elon's comments on 12.4.2 (see image)...
1) Training AI is not so straightforward - there's some trial and error. Tesla is still figuring it out.
2) AI doesn't learn in a linear way - there can be exponential jumps in its capabilities. We all could be
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Tesla - What Wall Street is Intentionally Missing...
... and how Time Arbitrage is your friend.
As we all know, Wall Street views Tesla as an auto company, with some energy storage on the side. They make projections about global EV adoption, Tesla's market share, profit margins
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Let's have some fun "valuing" Tesla FSD + Autonomy...
... Introducing the "CERN" Model for Tesla - a Conceived Estimate of Robotaxi Network.
Let's look at just the potential value of Full Self Driving "FSD" software + Autonomy. (Note: I say "potential" - as this isn't a company
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Apple vs Tesla - something to think about...
Let's say there are about 1.4 billion active iPhones in the world. All these phones generate annual revenue of about $400 billion per year - or about $285 of revenue per active phone per year (including sales of replacement phones).
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Who is better at running Tesla, Wall Street or
@elonmusk
?
Much hot air has been released by the yammering heads on CNBC over Tesla’s declining auto gross margins. Tesla’s gross margin – the profit the company garnered after the costs associated with producing and marketing its
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What Wall Street will miss with Tesla's 4680 Battery Ramp
In just 101 days Tesla has produced 50 million 4680 batteries for a lifetime total of 100 million.
This means that Tesla produced an average of 495,000 per day (blue bars in the chart).
But Tesla probably didn't start
4680 Battery Ramp - Better than it Looks!
Over the last 101 days Tesla has made about 50 million 4680 batteries - this implies an average battery production of about 495,000 per day.
But that's an average of the last 101 days. It doesn't tell you where they entered and, more
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Peter Diamandis with Cathie Wood - "Tesla is the unsung hero of the decade ahead"
Peter - "In the next 10 years we are going to see as much progress as we've seen in the past century."
Cathie - "The equity markets mosey along like nothing much is going to change...these
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"And we will license the tech to other car companies" - Elon Musk
Here's how I'm thinking about it...
Let's assume the two parties are Ford and Tesla.
If I'm Ford: I want my customers to use FSD because it helps me sell more vehicles and helps my customers see the Ford
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I think Elon is saying:
Information Compression Efficiency: This refers to how effectively an AI model can compress or simplify the information it learns without losing important details. It's about how the model manages to represent complex data with fewer parameters while
@CernBasher
@BeerandTesla
Yeah, so long as the information compression efficiency is held reasonably constant, a higher parameter count is a representation of how well it understands the nuances of reality
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For those that may have missed my earlier posts on Tesla's Robotaxi future, here's a compendium of the relevant posts...
1) Robotaxi Implications
2) What happens to the value of existing Tesla EVs
3) Saving lives and saving $340 billion/yr
4) Transformation from an Auto company
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When people say that Elon has "lost all credibility" ... this makes me think that they are using the wrong word.
Credibility definition: "the quality of being believable or worthy of trust."
Elon has more credibility than any other CEO I can think of.
Of course, one can
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Tesla - Ignore it All!
1) Tesla reports record Regulatory Credits - "ignore them, they will go away one day"
2) Tesla reports record Energy revenue - "it's too small to matter, Tesla is a car company"
3) Tesla reports that they are building capacity in existing factories to
Tesla - What's Better: Autos vs. Energy vs. Robotaxi vs. Bots?
Answer: You'll soon be calling 911 (foreshadowing)...
Okay, put yourself in Elon's shoes - you can make autos, or your can make battery storage products, or you can operate a robotaxi network, or you can offer
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Tesla - A Day in the Life
On an average day in Q4 2023 Tesla...
Made 5,380 vehicles.
Sold 5,266 vehicles.
Produced $273 million in revenue.
Generated $47 million in operating cash flow.
Spent $25 million building new factories and buying new equipment.
Generated $22 million
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How is Tesla tracking against their "we will grow annual deliveries by 50% per year target"?
It was set at the end of 2020, just after Tesla delivered about 500,000 vehicles - 499,647 to be precise.
As of Q3 2023 the 50% per year target would mean that Tesla needed to deliver
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I think
@BrianFeroldi
observations regarding Tesla are fair:
(Beginning of Brian's quote)"... we've noticed a lot of misunderstanding about changes in Tesla's strategy over the past year -- namely, its price reductions. Some investors think it's a bullish sign ("Tesla is playing
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"Tesla is a broken stock"
Nvidia was once a broken stock.
As was Amazon.
As was Microsoft.
As was Apple.
As was Meta.
As was Netflix.
... and the list goes on.
A "broken stock" doesn't mean a "broken company", but more likely it's associated with a negative
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The stock price is a TERRIBLE WAY to evaluate the progress of any company.
Let's look at Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft and Amazon...
As Benjamin Graham said (and often repeated by Warren Buffett): "In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a
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Tesla Energy - Accelerating
Digging into the growth in Tesla Energy it appears to be even stronger than reported.
Reported Revenue in 2023 rose 54%.
But Indicative Revenue (my term) rose 125%.
Reported Revenue: One year ago (as of Q4 22) Tesla Energy generated $3.9 billion
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Robotaxi Implications - First, Second & Third Order
I recently had an in-depth discussion about this with Herbert Ong (video link in the comments below), but here are some highlights...
1) It fundamentally changes Tesla's business model. Wall Street will need to fire the auto
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Diving a little deeper into the growth in Tesla Energy... it appears to be even stronger than reported.
Tesla Energy comprises of two parts: Energy storage products like Powerwall and Megapack, and Solar energy offerings. The main driver of this business line is the Megapack, an
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@andrewrsorkin
@elonmusk
Next time, please stop interrupting him when he's answering your questions.
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Musk Inc --> A Disruption Machine
Elon's companies - Tesla, SpaceX, X, xAI, Neuralink and The Boring Company - are likely going to disrupt more than 100 companies in the S&P 500 Index that account for more than 50% of the index's market capitalization.
The companies that are
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@BeerandTesla
A parameter is like a setting that the AI adjusts to learn from data and make decisions. Each parameter holds a bit of information that the AI uses to understand patterns and generate outputs. The more parameters an AI model has, the more detailed and nuanced its understanding
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Two Different Valuation Approaches for Tesla
Is there a right way?
1) It's mostly an Auto Business: One approach is to look at what Tesla is selling today - mostly EVs - so you look at the global auto market, EV adoption rates, Tesla's market share and project out a growth rate
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@elonmusk
has said that humanoid robots “will probably be worth significantly more than the car side of things long-term."
Have you ever wondered how much more?
Let’s take a look at Tesla’s humanoid robot opportunity.
... Introducing the Boundless Optimus Transformation at
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Tesla Energy is quickly becoming a solid profit contributor - since Q3 2018 Tesla Energy has generated over $900 million in gross profit.
Tesla Services and Other is also clearly becoming a solid profit contributor, after years of losses.
Together, Tesla Energy + Services &
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Tesla's Regulatory Credits - means factories are "built by your competition"
While many analysts tend to minimize the revenue generated by Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) regulatory credits received by Tesla from other automakers, it is important to consider the significance of this
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Humanoid Bot Market - Who are the Players?
It's a rapidly evolving space, but here are the top contenders as Scott Walter and I see it today.
We haven't ranked the companies on the list, so please don't get upset if your favorite humanoid bot is not listed at the top.
Note:
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Tesla - What's Better: Autos vs. Energy vs. Robotaxi vs. Bots?
Answer: You'll soon be calling 911 (foreshadowing)...
Okay, put yourself in Elon's shoes - you can make autos, or your can make battery storage products, or you can operate a robotaxi network, or you can offer
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The World's 50 largest corporations generate more than $12.5 trillion in annual revenue. Interestingly, Tesla, with its emphasis on the automotive and energy sectors, is targeting nearly half of that colossal sum.
While it's not implied that Tesla is going to extract a direct $6
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@garyblack00
Nice to see that you agreed with this:
@garyblack00
@DivesTech
It’s not Tesla’s job to spoon feed Wall Street. Do your own research.
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Many analysts like to exclude the money that Tesla receives from Zero Emission Vehicle regulatory credits paid to them from other automakers. The thinking is that one day this source of revenue will go away. While that is true, ignoring the reg. credit revenue is missing
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Tesla - "Dead Money"
936 trading days ago, Tesla's stock price was the same price it closed at today - so the stock has been "dead money" for over three and a half years.
Some things to keep in mind:
1) This is not abnormal - very successful stocks can have very long periods of
The stock price is a TERRIBLE WAY to evaluate the progress of any company.
Let's look at Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft and Amazon...
As Benjamin Graham said (and often repeated by Warren Buffett): "In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a
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The CEO's of big companies that employ a lot of workers should be calling Elon Musk now and paying Tesla a lot of money to be first in line to receive Tesla's Optimus Robot.
If they are not first in line, they could be waiting for years - and watching as their competition
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@gigafactories
Amazing, but surely you aren't yet making 6.3 million drive units per year, right?!
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Tesla's Regulatory Credits - the gift that keeps on giving
While many analysts tend to minimize the revenue generated by Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) regulatory credits received by Tesla from other automakers, it is important to consider the significance of this income.
Since
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Just curious,
@elonmusk
are the first two bots that are autonomously performing tasks in the factory named Adam & Eve?
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Year to date, Tesla is the WORST performing stock in the S&P 500 - down 29%.
Yeah, that makes sense - there’s nothing going on at Tesla - no innovation, no leadership, no growth.
#sarcasm
The Best and Worst Performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year...
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The value of the Tesla bot call option just increased...
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Gary's comments about Tesla are laughable.
I'm usually mild-mannered / forgiving about these things, but sometimes the BS is just too great.
To illustrate: This is what he allegedly said when Amazon transitioned from just a book seller: "To increase our AMZN position we need to
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Tesla's Competition has Paid for Tesla's Entire Compute Spend
Since inception, Tesla has spent a total of $5.1 billion on Compute - including both spending on AI infrastructure ($2.5 billion) and Computer Equipment - Hardware & Software ($2.6 billion).
Over just the last three
Tesla's Regulatory Credits - means factories are "built by your competition"
While many analysts tend to minimize the revenue generated by Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) regulatory credits received by Tesla from other automakers, it is important to consider the significance of
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Tesla Energy: What it Means in Model Y Equivalents
With Q2's Production and Delivery report Tesla Energy should no longer be ignored by Wall Street.
But if they do ignore it, here's what they're missing...
430,000 Model Y's
The stated production capacity of Tesla's Lathrop
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Tesla is already making 74 million "bot equivalents"
As of the end of Q2, 2024, over the last 12 months, Tesla delivered about 170 GWh of energy --> 150 GWh in Autos and another 20 GWh of battery storage products.
Since Tesla will one day primarily be a bot company, that's
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What if your Tesla could earn money while parked?
Elon Musk’s new idea could turn your car’s downtime into a cash machine, … or will it?
Some have suggested this might be Tesla’s next multi-billion dollar market opportunity.
How much might a Tesla owner make by allowing
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And here it comes...
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Tesla - Befuddling Wall Street
This chart shows Wall Street's expectations for Tesla and the rest of the "Magnificent 7" stocks out to 2028.
This steady growth is wrong and here's why...
1) Revenue: Few companies see revenues grow in a straight line. The Magnificent 7
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If you could buy a machine that could save you $615,000 over ten years, what would you pay today in order to do that?
This is the exact question that global manufacturing firms and big companies who employ many workers will soon have to answer.
What is clear to me: once one
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Tesla Energy - Q1 Bright Spot
"We deployed 4,053 MWh of energy storage products in Q1, the highest quarterly deployment yet."
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Humanoid Robots - How Big Could the Market Become?
Prediction Alert: I believe that we are seeing a new industry forming that will become the largest in the world - humanoid robots will transform how we make things and create a massive new industry.
Labor vs Oil: Today, the oil
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Humanoid Robots - ARK Invest Big Ideas 2024
In my models I've been assuming that humanoid robots only work as fast as a human worker. It appears that I will need to rethink that assumption...
Even working at human speed, a humanoid robot has a 3.5 to 1 advantage, as the bot can
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This is one of many recent comments that Elon has made about the potential future value of robotaxi (and bots) … is anyone paying attention?
This reminds me of Jensen at Nvidia talking about the potential growth of AI a couple of years ago - no one listened to him.
Maybe
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Tesla - a $100 billion revenue run-rate
Tesla has produced $96.773 billion in revenue over the last 12 months - so close to $100 billion.
In the fourth quarter of 2023 Tesla saw revenue cross $25 billion for the first time - pushing the annual run-rate over $100 billion.
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"FSD will be much safer than humans"
What does Elon mean when he says this?
FSD would need to more than 99.9998% reliable.
Let me explain...
In the USA there are about 6,000,000 accidents reported each year and American's drive about 3.3 trillion miles per year.
This means
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Here are some key highlights from Tony Seba's post "This Time, We Are The Horses" on Humanoid Robots (see his original post below) - there are so many key insights... here are a few:
1) "This time, we are the horses: the disruption of labor by humanoid robots" - This is
This time, we are the horses: The
#disruption
of labor by
#HumanoidRobots
. 👤 🤖 〰️ 🚘 🐴
Our first longread in this series is now available via the
@rethink_x
blog.
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Great news!
Both Tesla shareholder resolutions are currently passing by wide margins!
♥️♥️ Thanks for your support!! ♥️♥️
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By effectively excluding humanoid bots, Ark's 2029 price target is artificially low (and they know it).
On Optimus, they say: "We assume that Optimus will have minimal impact on our price target. Over the next decade, we expect Tesla to become a leading manufacturer and service
BREAKING: ARK’s Expected Value For $TSLA In 2029: $2,600 Per Share
• Bear and bull cases for Tesla's valuation in 2029 range between ~$2,000 and $3,100 per share.
• ARK estimates nearly 90% of Tesla's enterprise value and earnings in 2029 will be attributed to the robotaxi
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Tesla's Growth Rate and Inventories: two things that some people like to find fault with.
1) Nothing grows in a straight line: Year over year Tesla saw growth in deliveries of 37.6% - very solid growth during difficult economic conditions for auto makers.
The 50% CAGR target
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Optimus will be sold AND offered as a service/rentals.
@CernBasher
Bots would be offered both as rentals as well as to buy, but the former first
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To those fretting about Tesla delivering 46,561 fewer vehicles than they produced this quarter...
When Tesla makes a vehicle they can't just instantly deliver it to the end buyer.
It takes time to transport the vehicle on trains & trucks all over the country. In the case of
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Bot Napkin Math at Massive Scale
Per Elon, if there are 1x, 2x, 3x or 4x bots for every human on the planet, what might the humanoid bot industry look like?
Well, let's just say, it would be a colossal industry - nothing like we've ever seen (warning this gets extremely nutty).
Elon on the number of humanoid bots in the future...
"I think the ratio will be at least 2 for every human, maybe 3 or 4, as there will be many in industry producing goods & services, often for other robots in the supply chain."
Let me do the math for you:
1 bot per human on
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How much is a used Tesla worth on Day 1 of a robotaxi network?
More than you might realize...
Once a robotaxi network is up and running, a used Tesla - one without purchased FSD - goes from being a depreciation machine to a money printing machine.
This means that the value
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The ramping of Tesla's quarterly production is truly impressive (and Berlin and Texas barely contribute). But the potential production ramp ahead is even more exciting...
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Robots as a Service - a 24/7 on-demand workforce
Today, when we think of labor, we think of people working 8ish hours a day, five days a week. Our GDP is based on a human work week.
In the future, labor will be robots working 22ish hours a day, seven days a week. Our GDP will be
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They say you should surround yourself with people smarter than yourself - I did just that today!
Anyone over-hearing our conversation on humanoid bots would have been inspired.
Had to go to Miami to find guys as enthusiastic as me to talk
#humanoids
over lunch.
@CernBasher
@derekwall
@GoingBallistic5
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Optimus Bot Production Ramp
Smoke-away wrote:
"Optimus Production Ramp
- 2024: 1,000
- 2025: 10,000
- 2026: 100,000
- 2027: 1,000,000
- 2028: 10,000,000
- 2029: 100,000,000
- 2030: 1,000,000,000"
and Elon replied: "Not quite that fast, but not far wrong"
By comparison,
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@DoctorJack16
Agreed. As for the bathroom, the vehicle can stop whenever you'd like it to - so no need to come up with anything too creative on that front!
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4680 Battery Ramp - Better than it Looks!
Over the last 101 days Tesla has made about 50 million 4680 batteries - this implies an average battery production of about 495,000 per day.
But that's an average of the last 101 days. It doesn't tell you where they entered and, more
Tesla just reached 100 million 4680 cells produced! 🎉
The last update was on the 5th of June where they announced 50 million cells produced.
There were 101 days in that time span, which means that on average, they produced 495,000 cells/day.
In terms of Cybertrucks, that's
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🔍 A Closer Look at Tesla's Multifaceted Revenue Streams
Tesla is transcending its image as just an electric vehicle manufacturer. It's a tech innovator with a complex array of current and future revenue sources. Let's break them down into three primary categories: Hardware,
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Funny how the risk from fires is the exact opposite of what you see in the media.
$TSLA
In the last six years of data, there have been zero recalls due to Tesla's fire risk.
Legacy media reports Tesla vehicles as dangerous, but they are actually the safest vehicles.
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Tesla’s Optimus Bot represents a paradigm shift in computing platforms
While Tesla’s Optimus has the potential of revolutionizing labor, it could also make computing more human… posing a formidable challenge to the supremacy of tech behemoths like Apple, Alphabet (Google),
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Tesla's Humanoid Robots could create a Win-Win-Win situation...
What if Tesla offered their Optimus robots as a subscription service AND put 50% of the gross profit into a Not-For-Profit entity we'll call "AMPLIFY"?
What would AMPLIFY do? - It would provide money for basic
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Kudos to Ford for being transparent about their EV business - how does it compare to Tesla's experience at the same stage in their business?
Let's take a look...
Last quarter Ford had "wholesales" of 34,000 EVs and produced $1.8 billion in revenue. They lost $1.08 billion for a
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Tesla - The Profitability of Selling an EV
In Q4 2023 Tesla made an average of $7,233 in Gross Profit per vehicle sold.
During the quarter the Average Selling Price was $43,528 and the Cost to Make an EV was $36,295 - both continuing the long-term downtrend, making EVs more
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For those interested in how Tesla might clean/sanitize a robotaxi... it's clear they've thought deeply about it.
$TSLA
#Robotaxi
Tesla's patent WO2023/163943A1 presents a system and method for automatically sanitizing enclosed spaces, particularly vehicle interiors, that can be shared by multiple people.
The core of this patent is detecting the current environmental conditions of the
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How big could FSD licensing revenue become?
Haven't thought about it in depth yet, but the opportunity is with the other 7.5 million EVs (and growing) sold each year that aren't Tesla's.
If the subscription price is $200/month and the revenue is split 60/40 (might not be the
Interesting.
We should some math on this, what's your calculation of potential FSD licensing revenue?
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Tesla inspires the next generation with the new Cybertruck!
He asked if he could get a robot 🤖 to clean his room!
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Q2 Inventories - back to abnormal
By my calculations, Tesla's global vehicle inventory will be back down to about 19 days for Q2 2024.
This will be a welcome decline from Q1's 28 days. This will materially boost Q2's cash flows.
But even 19 days of inventory is not the true
Some thoughts on Tesla's Vehicle Inventory...
Chances are Tesla's global vehicle inventory will jump to 26 - 30 days for Q1 2024 (I estimate it to be about 28 days). Coming off very low inventory levels, this looks like a big increase.
But is this bad?
To try to answer that
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Tesla: Lessons for individual investors from this year's price action
1) Market volatility is common - Despite what Charlie says below, what Tesla's stock has experienced isn't abnormal. Stock prices can fluctuate significantly over short periods - fluctuation is normal.
2)
Tesla was down 43% on the year at its closing low on April 22. But after a 77% rally, it has turned positive and is now up 1%. One of the most incredible short-term comebacks you'll ever see. $TSLA
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40 years ago some knew there was a problem ...
@invest_answers
constantly brings it to our attention.
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Let’s imagine a point, in the near future, where Tesla does disclose some info about their bot business. They tell us that bots, starting in late 2025, will be offered as a subscription service for $7,500 per month, bots cost $20,000 to make and they will have capacity to make 20
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We are about to enter the age of AI-powered Humanoid Robots...
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It's 2030 - can you spot the car company?
Again, not financial advice - please do your own research.
/end
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Listen to What Jensen Huang Says
Not what the media writes about what Jensen says, but what Jensen actually says.
Here are some of Jenson's comments on tonights earnings call with analysts...
Let's start with these comments from Jensen: "The world is moving from general purpose
Nvidia - Profit and Cash Flow Machine
Gross Margins in Q2 were 75.1%, down from 78.4% in Q1.
Net Margins in Q2 were 55.3% vs 57.1% in Q1
Nvidia's CFO states: "Sequentially, gross margins decreased primarily driven by inventory provisions for low-yielding Blackwell material and
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Tesla Energy - Q2 Deployment Surge
"We deployed 9.4 GWh of energy storage products in Q2, the highest quarterly deployment yet."
Trailing 12-month storage deployments crossed 20.6 GWh.
Trailing 12-month storage deployments have now reached about 50% of the stated capacity of the
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