Stanphyl Capital
@StanphylCap
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Value investor with some opinions. Registered Independent. Beware of copycat scammers using my profile! My name is Mark B. Spiegel.
Joined October 2020
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Pinned Tweet
1) Last Wednesday at 5:59PM I had a brief (if you blinked you missed it!) slot on Fox Business to talk about EV tax credits being an egregious waste of money.
This was NOT $TSLA-specific, and in fact I'm long more $GM & VW combined than I'm short Tesla and GM would benefit most.
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Even though Trump is a vile human being, his policies are better than Biden's and while I was previously planning to abstain, I may now vote for him just as an F-U to the Democrats who brought a political case that wouldn't have happened against any other person in America.
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@elonmusk
But you've been doing this for 7 years already! I mean you wouldn't lie to us, would you?
Welcome
@Chiefboltkennyh
to
@TeslaMotors
. He will apply Formula 1 techniques to revolutionize servicing mainstream cars.
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Mercedes operating margin: 11.9%
Mercedes PE ratio: 5.5x
BMW operating margin: 10.7%
BMW PE ratio: 6.2X
$TSLA operating margin: 9.6%
$TSLA PE ratio based on .78 GAAP Q2 annualized to $3.12 and today's close of $291.26: 93x
THIS SCAM HAS A PLUNGE IN ITS FUTURE
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@KeithOlbermann
@AOC
Keith, did you really go to Cornell? (I know you did- I'm a VBR alum too.)
Did you know all 1.4B cars & light trucks in the world COMBINED contribute only 12% of man-made CO2?
Have you done a "temperature cost-benefit analysis" of spending TRILLIONS on (half fossil-fueled) EVs?
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If the Fed does 75bp, then 50bp then 25bp then "pauses"@ 4.625% while continuing $90B/mo of QT, is there anyone with an IQ > room temp who doesn't realize that most asset prices will continue sliding into the toilet?
Do you think current valuations can withstand that environment?
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In case my suspension is near, I at least feel that a large part of my work here is done: it’s now widely understood that Elon Musk is a pathologically lying fraud & scumbag, and his professional demise surely approaches.
And oh, $TSLA was the biggest bubble-fraud in history!
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This Twitter deal will wipe Musk out.
He's borrowing HEAVILY in LTV terms against $TSLA stock that will literally be down 95% before this bear market is over (and, at $50/share/$55 billion the company would STILL be grossly overvalued).
He's DONE, slow-motion train wreck style.
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Congrats to every human who actually READ the $AMZN earnings report and saw through the algo-driven action and shorted the stock in the high $3200s. That's what makes this game worth playing.
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@zerohedge
Dude's about to go on trial on 100 different counts of fraud, and what does he say?
He wishes he could have pulled off another one!
Genius!
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At $112/sh $TSLA market cap is STILL around $360B
$TSLA reached a Q4 1.6M annual delivery run-rate ONLY by slashing prices to the point of ZERO profit
BMW sells 50% more cars (2.5M/yr) and they're ALL profitable and its EVs are BETTER. Its market cap is around $60B
That is all
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Remember, investors:
Musk cheats with his best friends' wives, but NOT on $TSLA's financial statements!
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On this "blow-out quarter," $TSLA operating cash flow was down almost $600M vs. last quarter, despite payables being up $1.146 billion while receivables were only up $393 million.
Yeah, these "earnings" are bullshit.
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@DanRather
I know you'd love to keep him in the headlines as a distraction but THAT guy lost.
Now we have someone (a nice guy) mentally & physically unsuitable for the job. If he were a Republican you'd be all over it.
That's why media credibility among independents these days is ZERO.
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@elonmusk
@erikbryn
@ericschmidt
@CondoleezzaRice
@scsp_ai
@Ukraine
Yes, but MY fictional mode of transportation could do it in 15 minutes!
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All joking aside, Musk is CLEARLY hiding SOMETHING by suddenly dropping litigation and offering to pay full price.
There's no way $TWTR wouldn't have settled for, say, $52.
This makes Musk even dirtier than he ALREADY was.
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So $TSLA SG&A was EXACTLY $961M in both Q2 and in Q3, despite selling 90,000 more cars in Q3???
LOL!
Coincidence, mistake or fraud?
Pick one.
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What kind of fucking idiot levers 5:1 to get long an obvious fraud because he thinks he can "squeeze shorts"??? What's his exit strategy???
How did someone that dumb get so rich in the first place? (It can't be ALL "insider trading"!)
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@zerohedge
Wow, that's weird! What was it before Putin invaded?
Checks data...
Oh yes: 7.5%
Yup, it's all "Putin," alright!
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I'm increasingly convinced we're in a roughly 18-month bear market since January's peak that by the fall of 2023 will take the S&P down at LEAST 35% from its ATH (to 3130) and more likely 50% (2400).
Look at the bears of 1973-74, 2000-02 & 2007-09.
Thus we're short a ton of $SPY
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A guy at the $TSLA shareholder meeting just said he "became a marine because he wants to help defend Elon's base on Mars."
You can't make this shit up.
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52 years ago we landed men on the moon, and they walked on it and returned in perfect health.
Today the founder of a giant stock promotion will spend a few seconds flying slightly higher than 65 year-old U2 spy planes do every day.
This country is really dumbed down, lol.
$SPCE
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Narrator: buying call options isn’t “investing in America.”
It’s pure short-term insider speculation from the most plugged-in “public servant” in America, and a goddamn fucking DISGRACE.
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When Musk is inevitably removed as the CEO of $TSLA (maybe even this weekend!) it will still just be a car company with fraudulent financials, stalling sales growth and a market cap of around $475 billion.
See you down another 90%!
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I still can't get over the fact that after $TSLA's CEO said they'd have 1M robotaxis on the road LAST YEAR, it's using DRIVERS for a *0.8*-mile taxi in an ISOLATED TUBE with no cross-traffic, pedestrians or weather!
Lol, Musk is the most in-plain-sight fraudster in history!
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Reminder:
The Fed is still PRINTING $30 billion this month, lol.
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🚨🚨🚨As predicted, Mr. Fraudsperger's just filed 2 massive Form 4s🚨🚨🚨
The motherfuckier started dumping stock the day after the annual meeting when he said $TSLA could be the world's most valuable company and everything was going amazingly.
He is a vile piece of shit.
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Revenge is best served cold.
I think it's time
@JeffBezos
took a 14.9% stake in $TWTR and forced the board to sue Musk for "specific performance," sending $TSLA into a death-spiral liquidation as Musk tries to come up with the equity.
Just an idea, Jeff!
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Toyota just reported Q3:
Operating margin: 12.6%.
Tesla: 7.6% INCLUDING emission credits; 5.3% ex-credits
Revenue: +24% year-over-year
Tesla: +9%
Operating profit: $9.52B
Tesla: $1.76B
$TM market cap: $235B
$TSLA: $640B
$TSLA is *still* the biggest bubble-fraud in history!
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I know it's hard (for politicians) to believe, but running $2 trillion annual budget deficits might be inflationary.
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Apparently, shelling a nuclear power plant is good for the price of gold.
This was previously unknown, because NO ONE IN HISTORY WAS EVER FUCKING STUPID ENOUGH TO SHELL A NUCLEAR POWER PLANT.
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Fun fact:
In Q4 $TSLA recalled twice as many cars as it sold!
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1) With 84% of S&P 500 companies having reported as of February 15th, Q4 GAAP earnings came in at just $38.38/share, which annualizes to $153.52.
A 16x multiple on that would put the S&P at just 2456.
TTM GAAP = $171.52. 16x that = 2744.
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Today's $TSLA one-minute pre-market stock chart is incredible. Between when the split announcement hit at 6AM and 18 minutes later, the stock added around $65 billion in market cap. That's an entire $GM or $F based on absolutely NOTHING, lol.
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There's this rapper tonight at Summerstage named Kenny Beats. Every 10th word out of mouth is "the N word."
Can someone please explain to me why this isn't a terrible societal double-standard?
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The vast majority of $TSLA's alleged "free cash flow" came from a huge increase in accounts payable.
As usual, this company barely has any REAL free cash flow.
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$TSLA has 1.123 billion diluted shares.
That means that at today's closing price of $1023.50 its diluted market cap is approximately $1.15 trillion.
IT IS STILL BY *FAR* THE BIGGEST BUBBLE-GARBAGE-STOCK IN THE HISTORY OF THE STOCK MARKET.
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I just found out Hermès is publicly traded. (I'd always assumed the Hermès family owned it, but they own 67% and most of the rest trades.) Check out the margins on this crack dealer for rich women trying to fill their empty lives with handbags!
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We've gotten *killed* this year running VERY net short, yet we remain as net short as we've ever been.
From MANY perspectives, this stock market has the greatest disconnect from reality I've ever seen.
That which cannot continue, won't continue.
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It seems clear as to what fraudster Musk is now doing with $TSLA:
He's essentially putting the car business into "runoff mode" (because once Tesla had real competition he couldn't handle it) and is betting everything on maintaining a massive market cap based on FSD vaporware.
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Narrator:
Elon Musk prides himself on never, ever, ever settling lawsuits.
He paid this woman $250,000.
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I've often wondered if $TSLA is like Worldcom, with phony profitability making all the auto OEMs wonder why THEY can't be as "profitable as Tesla" in EVs, & thinking something was wrong with THEIR companies (the same way Worldcom did to other telecom companies in the early 2000s)
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This is incredible!
Apparently Tesla downgraded the brake calipers on the "Performance" Model Y to the same size as on the regular Y, but put a fake cover over them to make it LOOK as if it hadn't done that!!!
$TSLA is truly the world's scummiest company!
h/y:
@BradMunchen
As we took delivery of our 2023 Model Y last month. At some point Tesla decided to put caliper covers on the Performance Y. What does that mean? It's a smaller caliper and a smaller rotor which is the same on LR. So now you are just paying for the same brakes just red.
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ROFLMAO!!!
"I see a potential path for $TSLA to be worth more than $AAPL and Saudi Aramco combined."
ROFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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I just want to say that $TSLA operating margin was *500*bp (5%!) lower than the year-ago quarter when it sold >200,000 FEWER cars.
TESLA IS JUST ANOTHER CAR COMPANY.
CAR COMPANIES GET SINGLE-DIGIT PE MULTIPLES.
THAT IS ALL.
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This $TWTR deal proves once again that Elon Musk's word is his bond...
...a defaulted junk bond!
But I'm sure the $TSLA financials are totally legit!
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"Elon Musk: Tesla boss praises Chinese workers and says Americans try ‘to avoid going to work at all":
And that, my far-right "friends," is your new hero.
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@chamath
Hey Chamath,
In case this drug doesn't work, can you get a discount on an Uyghur replacement?
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$TSLA perspective:
Tesla needs to grow sales volume by around 50% just to be the size of BMW.
If it WERE valued as highly as BMW, it would have a market cap of $50 billion, which would be around $16 share.
I'd rather own BMW than $TSLA @ $16/share
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@DeItaone
How many times can a crack addict get vaxed before it kills him?
We're about to find out!
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I usually avoid tweeting THIS kind of political stuff but this Greenwald piece is remarkable.
With just a handful of exceptions (mostly Murdoch-owned stuff), America's media companies are now 100% dishonest re covering Democrats (and, of course, climate). It's all "advocacy."
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Gold selling off on a hot CPI report (because of fear of higher rates) is the wrong LONG-TERM move.
The market will gradually realize that central banks will NEVER raise rates enough to slay inflation, which means that the higher the CPI number, the better gold will do.
$GLD
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Guy who used Twitter to tweet the largest securities fraud in American corporate history is now on the board of Twitter.
Welcome to 21st century American securities law enforcement, where $50k insider-traders go to jail and billionaire fraudsters tell the SEC to suck his cock!
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This is HILARIOUS!!!
Apparently the crown prince bought a bunch of $TWTR in the open market last week when he though Musk was buying the company, then dumped it all today at a loss!!!
Sooner or later, EVERYONE gets Musked!
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It's absolutely astounding that on 9/30 $TSLA had capitalized "Construction in progress" on its balance sheet of $4.5 billion, despite holding "grand openings" for its only 2 big construction projects (the Texas & Berlin factories) *6 months* earlier.
This company is a fraud.
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Hey, I have a question:
If an army of home-invaders overwhelms Elon Musk's private security force and gang-rapes him, steals his possessions, and blows up his house, should he forget about it and negotiate a settlement?
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$F lost 700,000 units of Q2 production due to the chip shortage, which is 3.5x as many cars as Tesla PRODUCED in TOTAL.
$TSLA's market cap is around 13x that of Ford.
That is all.
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@$225/share, $TSLA still has a market cap of $720 billion.
BMW (as just one example) sells 50% more cars than Tesla at HIGHER margins and now makes nicer EVs, yet it has a market cap of $67 billion.
Over time, $TSLA is headed down >90% from here.
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“Hear me out on this one: we’ll connect 100 separate containers on rails, but instead of needing 100 people to drive them we’ll do it with just TWO! We’ll call it…. a FREIGHT TRAIN!”
“It’s a great invention! Just like Elon’s ‘tunnel”!
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You're about to see HUGE, MARGIN-DESTROYING $TSLA price cuts WORLDWIDE!
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I am now officially on the lookout for Morgan Stanley-filed Musk $TSLA Form 4s.
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I'll repeat what I said this morning:
If you put more than $250K in a bank you should be FORCED to pay into an insurance fund to cover your potential losses, the same way you're forced to buy auto insurance.
That, combined with COMPETENT regulation, solves the problem forever.
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$TSLA doesn't 8-K SEC subpoenas, factory closings, giant hardware recalls, etc., but within MINUTES of announcing a stock split that will happen SIX MONTHS from now, lol...
This is the biggest bubble-stock promotion in history, and we remain short!
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At $117 x 3.2B shares= a $374B market cap, what exactly is the $TSLA "story" now?
It's no longer "demand."
It's no longer "margins."
It's no longer "the CEO." (In fact, he's a giant NEGATIVE.)
It's no longer "the product." (There are now MANY better EVs out there.)
See ya -85%!
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Ponzicoin melting down nicely—now in the $44,000s.
Saylor better issue another convert, lol.
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Basic math for Teslemmings:
If a company sells 1.5M cars @ $60K @ $15K gross margin, gross profit = $22.5B
If that company then cuts prices 10% ($6k/car) & thus sells 30% more cars: 1.95M cars @ $9K gross margin = gross profit of $17.55B
See the problem for $TSLA?
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Um, $TSLA is now just an average car company.
Average car companies are selling at 4x to 7x earnings.
That is all.
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165,000 $TSLA $700 call contracts traded TODAY for options that expire TOMORROW. Those underlying shares represent approximately 50% of an entire day's volume.
Additionally 40,000 695s traded, 98,000 690s, 47,000 685s, and 82,000 680s. Another day's volume.
ALL EXPIRING TOMORROW
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Musk: "We dug our own grave with CyberTruck."
ROFLMAO!!!
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The market hasn’t bottomed until this dummy is the oldest waitress at Hooters.
Ark CEO Cathie Wood is incredibly bullish on Twitter and Elon Musk: "The verification, that little check, is very important to people and could clean up the platform considerably"
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This was posted while he was dumping Tesla stock.
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@mtracey
His Bitcoins & rockets massively outweigh tiny lifetime CO2 savings from his cars, while he treats workers & customers like disposable cannon fodder.
I think it's hilarious how the right has now adopted him, seeing as his ENTIRE EMPIRE depends on government mandates & subsidies!
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$TSLA has 1.1 billion diluted shares outstanding.
It bought $1.5B of Bitcoin.
If the value of that Bitcoin DOUBLES, Tesla's profit is $1.36/share.
The stock rallied around $20/share on the news.
That tells you all you need to know about the stupidity of Tesla stock buyers.
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BMW (selling around 2 million cars/year at very high margins) has a market cap of $46 billion.
If $TSLA (now barely growing at around 1.3 million cars/year) had a market cap equal to BMW's, it would sell for $16/share.
Think about that, you idiot Teslemmings.
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$QS (Quantumscape), a zero-revenue development stage solid-state battery company (i.e., "a science project"), now has a fully-diluted market cap of >$50 billion, roughly equal to that of $GM.
Think about that.
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I've never before had a $GME position, but when I see an incredibly shitty business with a Chairman who tweets about "the evils of short sellers" soar on a stock split at the beginning of a nasty bear market, well...
I just threw on a 2% short position at around $191.
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Countdown to Elon Musk going on Twitter to deny the Reuters story, before it's proven true a few weeks or months from now, lol.
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Musk just said AGAIN that "it's possible to sell cars at ZERO profit and make it up later on autonomy."
INVESTOR BEWARE!!!
$TSLA
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So Musk (in response to Tony Sacconaghi) just:
a) refused to provide any more details about the lower-cost car, and
b) refused to commit to staying with $TSLA for at least three years.
Carry on, suckers!
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**'Elon Musk ordered Nvidia to ship thousands of AI chips reserved for Tesla to X and xAI' - CNBC**
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
$TSLA
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If this crypto carnage continues, the Winklevosses are gonna get surgically reattached to save money on rent, hookers and toilet paper!
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@elonmusk
@stoolpresidente
Lol, yeah, “to prove liquidity”!!!
Not to cut your non-credit losses, of course!
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"Tesla ( $TSLA) Keeps Cutting Prices While Being Supply Constrained, Something Doesn't Fit - Bernstein"
FINALLY, SOMEONE CALLS OUT THE BULLSHIT ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM!
ht:
@Street_Insider
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Thought of the day:
This kind of stock market insanity (completely decoupling from the fundamental data & leading indicators) wasn't supposed to be able to happen with 5%+ interest rates and quantitative tightening.
In DECADES of following stocks I've never been this surprised.
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$TSLA conference calls continue to amaze me!
Has there ever been a $100 billion+ market cap company (much less one still > $400 billion) that spewed so much nonsense about things such as "Optimus" and "robotaxis"???
Lol, this is PINK SHEET PENNY-STOCK STUFF!
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So despite massive price cuts EVERYWHERE, $TSLA could only deliver 405,000 cars.
GAME OVER for anything but a low-priced car company.
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Doug Field, who left $TSLA as Director of Engineering a few years ago "to spend time with his family" just took a senior position at Ford, lol.
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I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again:
If you’re running institutional money and are long $TSLA in light of what an obvious pathologically lying securities fraudster the CEO is, you fully deserve the onslaught of career-ending investor lawsuits coming your way.
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I have no $NVDA position but it's now selling for over 25x its FY 2024 revenue estimate.
To paraphrase Scott McNealy, at 25x revenue, to get a 25-yr payback it must pay you 100% of revenue for 25 straight years in dividends!
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Several people excitedly point out that this is Nasdaq's best January since 2001. Uh oh!
Nasdaq 2000: -39%
Nasdaq January 2001: +11%
Nasdaq *full-year* 2001: -21%.
Nasdaq 2022: -33%
Nasdaq January 2023 (so far): +10.7%
Nasdaq full-year 2023: place your bets!
$QQQ
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