Inaugurating my new applied history essay series at
@WarOnTheRocks
with an examination of the tragic fall of Crete in 1941, and its lessons for contemporary Asia watchers and defense planners--particularly vis-a-vis Taiwan.
Saddening and alarming to see a once-respected scholar shamelessly spouting Chinese state-sanctioned propaganda on Chinese state-affiliated media. What a complete and utter moral collapse.
"America🇺🇸 has functionally become a PLUTOCRACY, a government of the 1% by the 1% and for the 1%.”
“China🇨🇳 has functionally become a MERITOCRACY, the society that picks the best brains in the society to run the society.”
——
@mahbubani_k
A few words on this much-discussed (but IMHO problematic) piece in FP. First of all, I share some of the author's frustration. Trotting out the same passages of Thucydides when commenting on Sino-US rivalry has become something of a tired trope, not (1/25
Some exciting news--I will now be writing a regular applied history column for
@WarOnTheRocks
. Every six weeks, I'll be publishing a new essay on the history of strategy and warfare--always with an eye to applying insights to our troubled present. Thrilled about this partnership.
Some professional news: later this month I will be joining
@RANDCorporation
as a Senior Political Scientist. Honored to join such a storied institution & looking forward to working alongside colleagues whose research on Asia, strategy & defense I have long followed & admired.
Some personal news: from mid-July I will be taking on a new position as Senior Fellow for Strategic Studies at the American Foreign Policy Council
@afpc
, where I will be initiating a new research effort on applied history, grand strategy, & great power competition in Asia. (1/4)
"Just because you plant your flag somewhere doesn't mean that territory changes hands," France's defense minister said in relation to China's "fait accompli politics" in the South China Sea"
"It is vital that the younger generation of Chinese, who (..) have no experience of China's tumultuous past, are made aware of the mistakes China made as a result of hubris and excesses in ideology." Interesting to re-read this 2013 discussion with LKY.
So immensely proud of my better half, *Dr.* Jennifer Mcardle
@jlmcardle01
I’ve always envied Finland’s custom of giving swords to freshly minted PHDs & decided to follow our new NATO ally’s excellent tradition.
For the curious, it looks like the table of contents of the new Makers of Modern Strategy is now visible online, along with
@HalBrands
´s elegant introduction.
"The review is also likely to recommend a more visible UK presence in China’s sphere of influence. This means going beyond Nato, Britain’s traditional military focus, to work more closely with allies on China’s doorstep, such as South Korea and Japan."
Honored to have been selected by the NATO Defense College in Rome as the Senior Eisenhower Defense Fellow for 2024. From September 2024 to February 2025 I will be temporarily based in la città eterna, working on the future of NATO’s engagement with partners in the Indo-Pacific.
In my latest long-form essay
@WarOnTheRocks
I discuss the enduring relevance of Tacitus, the most intellectually rewarding of Roman historians, and of his insights on the mechanics and psychology of authoritarian rule.
New US polling in the New York Times shows panic over Nazi conquests: almost as many believe Germany will win as the Allies- 32% to 38%- & number who believe USA should do more to help France & Britain has surged to 71%.
Three of my great-grandfathers fought in WWI. Eric Fawcett 🇬🇧 stormed the limestone cliffs of Gallipoli. Hippolyte Durand 🇫🇷 was severely wounded in a trench in Northern France. And Nek Alam 🇮🇳/🇬🇧(below) left his beloved Himalayas for the Western Front. A truly global conflict.
In my latest for
@EngelsbergIdeas
I argue that immigration & naturalization policies have always been at the heart of great power competition & that 🇺🇸 policymakers urgently need to begin taking a far more strategically informed approach to this issue 1/9
My latest in
@EngelsbergIdeas
. For all the doom & gloom surrounding the future of historians, their ability to sift through & process vast amounts of information renders them uniquely suited to jobs in policy in an era of cognitive overload & distraction.
Hard copies of the New Makers of Modern Strategy have arrived, and it’s a beautiful, hefty tome. Delighted to have contributed a chapter on three towering figures of early modern statecraft. Kudos to
@HalBrands
for his remarkable work leading this project.
Thrilled to be joining
@KissingerCenter
as an Ax:son Johnson Institute for Statecraft and Diplomacy Fellow in July. Looking forward to working alongside friends & colleagues whose research I admire, & to making headway on two long-gestating book projects.
In my latest essay for
@WarOnTheRocks
I examine the writings of Sallust,one of Rome's most renowned & historically influential historians,& his enduring insights on great power competition, democratic decline, & the role of values in foreign policy.(1/12)
My latest
@WarOnTheRocks
This was a lot of fun to write (and incorporates one of my favorite paintings by Hans Holbein) Part I today, Part II tomorrow.
Are you a historically-minded practitioner or a policy-minded historian with a love of ancient history, & a deep interest in grand strategy & military history more broadly? Then this book is for you. Coming out on March 7 in the UK (Thames & Hudson) & Sweden (Bokförlaget Stolpe)
As we approach the centenary of the WWI armistice, and honor the memory of that brave, battered generation, I wrote a little something for
@WarOnTheRocks
Some news: IISS has commissioned me to write an Adelphi book on an issue I’ve been working on for the past few years for ONA but which has now gained a new salience: the history & future of protracted war. If all goes to plan, expect it to be released in the late spring/summer.
European ships in the Pacific will do little to change the military balance of power there. Much better for European navies to focus on Europe (and the Middle East), so the United States can focus more of its attention eastward. Pure symbolism only goes so far now.
Students of IR—Thucydides is far from being the only Greek historian you can learn from. My latest for
@EngelsbergIdeas
, with a somewhat self-explanatory title.
"International Relations theory is mostly a parlor game that is neither descriptive nor predictive of what actually happens in the world. It is least persuasive when arguing that all nations behave similarly irrespective of their unique histories." A strong piece by
@KoriSchake
How did Rome manage to control such a vast empire with relatively small forces? How did its military machine adapt its force structure & tailor its operations to different theaters & adversaries? What can we learn from the period?
Out today in the UK:
I’ve noticed that this notion—that US grand strategy toward the PRC should not be grounded or articulated in terms of democratic values—has been gaining traction in some quarters. A 🧵 on why I think this particular argument is both unrealistic and unsound (1/24)
Tom is much more attuned to
@POTUS
& Admin thinking - & he seems to validate that
@POTUS
has *profoundly* ideological thinking.
Very worrying over-ideologization that could go really wrong - abroad & at home.
..a thin veneer of cultural sophistication. However, I would argue that the problem is not that too many people draw on Thucydides, Clausewitz or Sun Tzu, but rather that they often do so superficially, self-servingly, & seem to not have actually read the texts in question.(3/25)
In the latest issue of
@TXNatSecReview
I engage in a detailed and interdisciplinary analysis of Cardinal Richelieu's grand strategy during the Thirty Years War.
On this day, remembering my great-grandparents from Normandy, Hippolyte & Marcelline Durand. The day before D-Day, Hippolyte, with a gleam in his eye, whispered to his ten-year old daughter (my grandma) that something wonderful was about to happen.
Late to this welcome statement on the issue of the Dalai Lama’s succession/reincarnation. Thread on why this is important and on why it deserves more attention from Asia-watchers and students of contemporary authoritarianism more broadly. (1/16)
As I shared yesterday, Beijing must not interfere in the succession of Tibetan Buddhist religious leaders, including the Dalai Lama. Any attempt to do so – as the PRC has already done with the Panchen Lama – is an outrageous abuse of religious freedom.
“ What is undeniable is that war and human society are so deeply interwoven that we cannot understand the development of one apart from the other.” The great Margaret MacMillan making a strong case for the importance of war studies & applied history:
Coming in 2026 with Hurst/OUP--my book on the epic lives, blood-soaked times, and momentous careers of three titans of French statecraft: the Duke of Sully, the Huguenot lord who accumulated a variety of ministerial roles under Henri IV, Cardinal Richelieu, chief minister under
“In this case, China doesn’t need the land it is settling in Bhutan: Its aim is to force the Bhutanese government to cede territory that China wants elsewhere in Bhutan to give Beijing a military advantage in its struggle with New Delhi.”
Love this photo. My Kashmiri great grandfather was one of the many Indian soldiers sent to fight on the western front. Little did he know then that his son would earn a scholarship,leave the Himalayas for rural Kent,train as an engineer.. & then marry a French woman living in 🇬🇧
An elegant, thoughtful review essay on two recent books on Chinese elite politics by
@vshih2
&
@JosephTorigian
--and which also does a good job at highlighting the recurrent pathologies & inherent brittleness of personalized autocracies. via
@nybooks
Delighted to publish my first longform essay for the great folks
@EngelsbergIdeas
on what the quarrel of the ancients and moderns can tell us about the enduring value of applied history.
Interesting that Putin mentioned WWI & the 1917 revolution.
As Thucydides continuously reminds us throughout his History of the Peloponnesian War, drawn-out conflicts have a tendency to breed stasis, i.e. internal factionalism and disarray. (1/12)
The danger is the emergence of a form of post-historical hubris & epochal exceptionalism--one which sadly leads to a lot of IR work simply reinventing the wheel & restating what our predecessors had already articulated, often with far greater sophistication & eloquence.(25/25)
A genuine problem--not only in London, but also in many other parts of Europe, i.e. parts of the 🇫🇷 Riviera where I grew up. For a gripping immersion into the murky world of Russian oligarchs and money laundering, highly recommend this excellent BBC show:
🚨NEW 🚨Welcome to Eaton Square - the oligarchs' favourite address in the money laundering capital of the world
Watch
@OliverBullough
explain how Russian money & the
#LondonLaundromat
threaten our security, our democracy and our power to intervene in global affairs 🇷🇺🇬🇧👇👇
Sadly, imperial powers have long relied on ethnic auxiliary forces—often drawn from populations they earlier savagely oppressed—to engage in the uglier aspects of colonial policing, frontier warfare, and general expansionism.
Imagine taking a time machine to 2002 and telling people that in 20 years Vladimir Putin would be sending Chechens to wage war in Ukraine in the name of protecting Russian speakers
Absent a forceful response from the United States and the EU, this runs the risk of setting a very dangerous precedent. Other authoritarian actors with a taste for kidnapping, arbitrary detention & general thuggery will be watching
“Some people realize in their 30s that their formal education has left big gaps. The shows also create a sense of community—and tap into ancient traditions of storytelling. For all these reasons history podcasts are enjoying a golden age.” Amen to that.
Richelieu in his Political Testament on how overly subtle minds sometimes make for poor diplomatic negotiators. In some of his other writings he also provocatively notes that “the greatest minds may be more dangerous than useful (…) if they have not more lead than quicksilver.”
On this day, re-upping my 2018
@WarOnTheRocks
essay on how some of England’s most beloved and timeless classics emerged from their authors’ harrowing experiences in the trenches of World War I
"France’s decision to regularly deploy military assets in the South China Sea must be taken for what it is: an exercise in signaling. (...) The first signal is directed at China. It can be summarized in one word: 'counter-intimidation.'"
Yep.Those who sneeringly dismiss French anger and dismay as driven by commercial considerations or domestic politics are missing the forest for the trees. It’s the sustained campaign of deception that is the crux of issue,& that will have the most corrosive long-term effects.
Secrecy by key allies behind another key ally's back is entirely comparable. Alas. Reminder: in 1956, when it realised the scope of its allies' mischief, US came down on London and Paris like a ton of bricks. Not without reason
Yet again my wife knocks it out of the park with birthday gifts, as custom-made Sully & Richelieu bobble heads gaze down at me from my bookshelves, sternly reminding me to finish writing the book about them already. Once Mazarin joins them, the pressure will be overwhelming.
I thought I knew a fair amount of Australian military history, but am ashamed to say that until venturing into a DC cocktail bar this evening I had never learned of the great emu victory of 1932.
My latest for
@WarOnTheRocks
on Polybius, one of the fathers of applied history, and on his enduring relevance for national security practitioners & students of grand strategy:
Do you often think about the Roman Empire? Are you looking for an entertaining weekend read on grand strategy & military history? My book “Iron Imperator” is now available on kindle at the *extremely* reasonable price of $7.50
"Policy makers recognized that the efficiency of armies was intimately bound up with the educational ability not only of a small elite, but of the entire population." Interesting piece on the legacy & ramifications of the Franco-Prussian war.
Re-reading Marshal Foch’s war memoirs. While no English translation can fully capture the French Sphinx’s verve, this translation by Colonel Bentley Mott, the American liaison officer between Marshal Foch and General Pershing, is probably the best 1/5
Today is my first day as an Ax:son Johnson Fellow
@KissingerCenter
. Looking forward to working alongside Frank Gavin,
@HalBrands
, Andrew Ehrhardt, Mary Bridges,
@DrRadchenko
,
@wc_quinn
and the rest of the Center’s team of terrific scholars.
At an antique store here in Savannah, Georgia, stumbled upon a veritable treasure trove of Harper’s Weeklys spanning the tense, dread-filled period leading from March 1861—barely one month before the beginning of the Civil War—to July 1861. A short 🧵 of highlights: (1/6)
A final goodbye in the form of the Chant des Partisans (song of the partisans) to one of France’s great WWII résistants. Hard not to feel a certain shiver up one’s spine.
..As Quentin Skinner & other members of the so-called Cambridge School have argued, before analyzing the work of a thinker, one should first acquire a fine-grained understanding of the intellectual "eco-system" and of the specific historical context within which... (5/25)
Potentially unpopular (but hopefully balanced) opinion: one can celebrate 🇦🇺´s decision to finally acquire SSNs & AUKUS’s clearly transformative nature, yet disapprove of the singularly underhanded way in which the Morrison government led their 🇫🇷 partners on.
Good piece by
@JackDetsch
on the urgency of “the almost Sisyphean task of rebuilding the trans-Atlantic—and trans-Pacific—defense industrial base to fight three wars not during a world war, but when much of the Western world is at peace.”
Late to this good (and slickly designed)
@CFR_org
study on the sizable challenges the PLA would confront if it attempts a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. A few brief comments, however (1/5)
“A central irony of Washington’s approach to competition is that the same challenges that activate its ideological energy make it harder to keep 🇺🇸 diplomacy pure.” A thoughtful piece by
@HalBrands
in
@ForeignAffairs
(with some welcome references to Reinhold Niebuhr,among others)
“Asked who his spiritual leader was, a monk at Lhasa's historic Jokhang temple named Xi Jinping. (..)I speak freely to you," said the monk named Lhakpa, speaking from a courtyard overlooked by security cameras and government observers.”
Wonderful to launch “Iron Imperator” in a packed room in London today. Thanks to the Ax:son Johnson Foundation &
@KCL_CGS
for their organizational prowess & to
@NevilleMorley
for his generous and thoughtful commentary.
On this mild autumnal morning in DC, thinking of them & the millions of other young men from across the world who found themselves suddenly catapulted into years of hellish conflict.
Three of my great-grandfathers fought in WWI. Eric Fawcett 🇬🇧 stormed the limestone cliffs of Gallipoli. Hippolyte Durand 🇫🇷 was severely wounded in a trench in Northern France. And Nek Alam 🇮🇳/🇬🇧(below) left his beloved Himalayas for the Western Front. A truly global conflict.
Fascinating review essay by one of the world’s finest living historians, discussing a spate of recent scholarship on Spain’s conquest of the Aztecs. via
@nybooks
"By creating ties with host-country militaries & pre-positioning weapons,ammo & heavy equipment,those forces can be multiplied to the size of a brigade in days,said🇫🇷's senior national representative in🇷🇴" Good piece on evolving Black Sea security dynamics
For instance, Kautilya's Arthashastra is rife with fascinating perspectives on balancing, state formation & covert warfare, and we are in dire need of more detailed examinations of the text & its era (Although this provides a solid introduction:) (12/25)
I am heartened, however, by the fact that a new generation of security scholars have begun producing excellent work on these hitherto neglected strategic traditions. See, for example,
@manjeetsp
's fascinating exploration of Mughal statecraft (13/25)
..said texts or ideas were produced. For an introduction to this approach--one I personally largely subscribe to, and which puts a strong focus on reading the author's intellectual influences and contemporaries--see Skinner's seminal article here: (6/25)
With regard to the "constant challenge" of reading Thucydides, in particular, and the humility with which one should go about it, this essay by
@NevilleMorley
in
@eidolon_journal
is--in its degree of nuance and thoughtfulness--really worth reading: (19/25)
This piece, by Conor M. Kennedy and Col. Scott Stephan
@ChinaMaritime
--which delves into Chinese & PLA assessments of evolutions in US planning, posture & force design for operations within the first island chain--is an absolute must-read.
Remarkable interview. One of the twentieth century’s more interesting leaders. A complex character, full of shades of grey, but also a formidable stateswoman—cultured, on occasion charming but always imbued with a steely resolve and a strong sense of realpolitik.
“Americans have a tendency to mythologise the past into a time when 🇺🇸 politicians were statesmen, unhindered by the grubbiness of domestic politics.(..)As a historian, I keep looking for that time and can’t find it.” Powerful piece by
@KoriSchake
The enormously influential but strangely under-examined Sallust would be another.I fully agree with the article's emphasis on the need for more work focused on Asian diplomatic and military history. For ex, Julia Lovell's magnificent overview of China's strategic behavior..(10/25