John W Lettieri
@LettieriDC
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Co-founder @InnovateEconomy * Interested in what makes people & places thrive * Husband, dad, & long-suffering fan of @DemonDeacons .
Washington, DC
Joined August 2013
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🚨 NEW: Leading the WSJ homepage this AM is an exclusive look at a new report from the team
@InnovateEconomy
on how American communities have become heavily reliant on income from government transfer programs.
We call this “The Great Transfer-mation.”
Let’s dig in.
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NEW: America’s left-behind counties have just notched their best 3-year stretch of job and business creation so far this century—and nobody saw it coming. 🧵
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This is no trivial matter. Americans now lose more property to civil asset forfeiture than to burglary each year.
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I worry that if we simply solve climate change through technological innovation, we’ll be missing an opportunity to subvert capitalism.
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Folks, it’s really difficult to remain a first-rate global superpower while being hostile to productivity gains.
The port union is demanding "total ban on the automation of cranes, gates and container movements that are used in the loading or loading of freight at 36 U.S. ports".
This is bad. Should policymakers really allow this?
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This image says a great deal about the future of America’s economy, politics, and culture.
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This is an absolutely infuriating look at America’s failure to design an immigration system that prioritizes ambitious, skilled, and educated people who could make enormous contributions to our society. Truly a must-read.
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Reminder: When bad things happen, there are only two possible explanations.
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The fact that law-abiding citizens are routinely deprived of property without due process has led to widespread calls for reform. And yet...
FORFEITURE SIREN: In speech today, AG Sessions says he'll be issuing a new directive to increase asset forfeiture
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This analysis looks at counties that experienced less than half the national pace of population and median household income growth from 2000 to 2016.
All told, that’s over 1,000 “left-behind” counties home to about 18% of the U.S. population.
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The largest Toyota manufacturing plant in the world is in Kentucky. “Foreign” and “domestic” automaker categories don’t mean what they used to.
Toyota outsold General Motors last year in the U.S., the first year in recorded history that a foreign automaker sold more cars and trucks than an American one.
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🚨HUGE win for competition and worker mobility: the New York state assembly has passed a ban on nearly all noncompete agreements--regardless of industry or salary level.
NY joins OK, ND, and CA as the only states with sweeping restrictions on noncompetes.
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While left-behind counties areas saw an extremely weak recovery from the Great Recession, they have surged back following the COVID crisis, creating jobs and business establishments at rates not seen in decades.
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Left-behind areas are *heavily* concentrated in the Midwest and Northeast. 13 million swing state residents live in such places.
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NEW: Senators Young (R-IN) & Murphy (D-CT) just introduced the first bipartisan bill to limit the use of non-compete agreements nationwide. This is huge.
Non-compete reform would boost wages, entrepreneurship, innovation, & worker mobility.
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It’s hard to overstate the surge business establishments in left-behind counties, which now exceeds what the rest of the county was seeing at the *peak* of the pre-COVID business cycle. Absolutely remarkable.
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On the jobs front, it’s rural areas leading the pack.
From 2016-2019, rural left-behind areas created a net 10k jobs. In 2023 alone, they added 104k.
In total, these rural areas have almost fully recovered to pre-COVID employment levels.
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I will never forgive Jerome Powell for repealing the SALT cap instead of passing a carbon tax.
.
@SenWhitehouse
&
@JeffMerkley
come out against a 2nd term for Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair. They say Powell doesn’t do enough on climate change
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Just kidding, this is awesome.
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Asset forfeiture has been used to pillage poor neighborhoods in Chicago, as documented by
@cjciaramella
@reason
.
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The stories of forfeiture abuse are heartbreaking and yet totally predictable. It is a practice that invites abuse.
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Well, this is huge.
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If I were the governor of New York, I would have simply signed the noncompete ban.
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🚨🚨A bipartisan, bicameral group of lawmakers just reintroduced legislation to ban noncompetes nationwide.
Noncompete reform would be a huge win for American workers, entrepreneurs, & the innovation economy. And it can get done *this year*.
Read more👇
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America’s lack of housing abundance isn’t some deep mystery. It isn’t a failure of late stage capitalism. It isn’t the result of blind faith in free markets. It’s not Blackrock’s fault.
It’s just vetocracy.
Want a great case study of why "affordable housing" does not exist? I'm 12-months negotiating with neighbors and city officials, and $100k+ into attorney, engineering and city costs before having my first official city meeting.
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Future generations will look back on the use of civil asset forfeiture and wonder what the hell we were thinking.
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In spite of a strong jobs recovery, left-behind areas are still falling behind relative to the rest of the country. But this relative gap is far less important than the strong absolute performance, IMO.
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People are *deeply* underestimating how much weirder American politics is about to get. Uncharted terrain. 2017 is not done with us.
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This is very worrisome. Geographic mobility has historically been a key ingredient in the dynamism and adaptability of the US economy—and an crucial way for individual workers and families to seek out a better life. Now it is evaporating before our eyes.
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No analysis of left-behind places could be complete without examining the political angle, and here there’s not much ambiguity. Trump dominates in these areas—including ones in solidly blue states.
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@WillRinehart
They are fascinating creatures.
My favorite thing about them is how much creativity they display in killing sharks.
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I can’t get over this. SBA is straight-up circumventing the plain reading of the PPP statute by limiting the most important benefit for borrowers.
“While Congress passed a law saying X, we have a better idea.”
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The
@nytimes
has a nice write-up by
@jimtankersley
on the economic surge in America’s left-behind places.
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Maybe, in light of yet another strong jobs report, reporters will push leading presidential candidates who claim the economy is "fundamentally broken" to produce some stronger evidence.
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🚨The momentum continues: A bipartisan group of lawmakers in the House and Senate just introduced legislation to restrict non-compete agreements nationwide.
This is pro-market, pro-worker, pro-innovation policy—and would cost taxpayers $0.
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“The destiny of the U.S. heartland may be to go from farming and manufacturing towns of 5,000 people to college towns of 50,000.”
Strong case for second-tier research institutions as regional revitalizers, by
@Noahpinion
.
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It’s hard to overstate how big a factor this phenomenon is for the success of the American economy.
Out of the 1,000 top scorers on the entrance exam for the Indian Institutes of Technology, 36% have migrated eight years later (primarily to the US).
Out of the top 100, 62%.
Out of the top 10, 90%.
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This is jarring.
“Major cities like New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco have seen some of the largest declines among young families… all greater than 10 percent. New York City’s under-five population was 12.5 percent smaller in July 2022 than April 2020.”
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How can policymakers boost wages and make life better for workers?
***Ban noncompetes.***
Important research out of Oregon by
@evanpstarr
and
@MichaelLipsitz
.
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We’re in the golden age of old, unproductive incumbent firms.
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Great paper examining a seismic shift in the U.S. economy:
-non-college workers now effectively face a housing-inclusive urban wage penalty
-native-born cross-state migrants, especially non-college workers, have become less likely to live in the highest-productivity areas
Recent short paper in the
@JPubEcon
:
"Moving to Density: Half a Century of Housing Costs and Wage Premia from Queens to King Salmon"
Vol 222 (June 2023)
by Philip G. Hoxie (
@phoxie58
), Daniel Shoag (
@caseweatherhead
), & Stan Veuger (
@stanveuger
)
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smh how did this project ever get approved? The Sphere clashes with the character of a historic Vegas neighborhood, casts an enormous shadow, disturbs the migratory patterns of local birds, and contains ZERO affordable units.
The Sphere in Las Vegas, which is the largest spherical structure in the world, lit up for the first time Tuesday night showcasing a dazzling display to celebrate Fourth of July.
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It’s almost as if the conventional wisdom on gentrification and neighborhood change is hopelessly flawed.
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Quick take on the Senate’s small business lending plan...
Shallow/short crisis: it’s probably enough to keep most affected businesses afloat.
Deep/prolonged crisis: falls well short of what’s needed to stave off insolvency, & we’ll see a large-scale wipeout of small businesses.
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This is very Good Signaling that the WH is attuned to the harm caused by noncompetes & onerous licensing.
But regulators’ have limited ability to take sweeping/lasting action on these issues. The ultimate goal—the one that makes reform stick—should still be to pass legislation.
Biden's upcoming executive order on competition is going to have a serious labor market component. He's directing regulators to go after noncompetes, occupational licensing, and monopsony labor markets more generally.
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Nationwide lead remediation is absolutely Good Policy—and it needs to go way beyond replacing pipes.
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Guys, I am starting to wonder if the U.S. has the right approach to the war on drugs.
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This is a seismic moment for those of us working to make national noncompete reform a reality. Restricting noncompetes is good for American workers and employers alike, and will broadly boost dynamism and innovation. Competition is good!
However, the work isn't finished yet. 1/
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This by
@ezraklein
on the effect of skilled immigrants — and the nature of labor markets more broadly — is 🎯.
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Krugman sides with
@ModeledBehavior
on what’s behind declining labor productivity. You love to see it.
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Minutes ago, the FTC approved a rule banning new noncompete agreements for all workers going forward and rendering most existing ones unenforceable.
I've been working on this issue for years and want to offer a few thoughts.
🧵
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Myrtle Beach being virtually tied with Los Angeles in housing permits is incredible.
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13 days, folks. That's how long it took to burn through $349 billion.
NEW: SBA expects to run out of money for emergency coronavirus loans for small businesses imminently—*this afternoon,* sources tell me. The $349 billion in the PPP program is meant to help cover payroll.
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American policy is premised on the notion that the best and brightest will always be willing to tolerate the kafkaesque nightmare that is our immigration system.
It’s wrong, and our failures are a gift to other advanced economies like Canada, Australia, and the U.K.
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New York’s economy is on a dangerous downward trajectory. By vetoing noncompete reform, Gov. Hochul is rejecting a generational opportunity to get back on track.
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You know you’ve lost the plot when this is the result of your immigration policy.
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For absolutely no reason in particular, let's take a look at the economic well being of congressional districts throughout the United States. How do local distress and prosperity correspond with the party holding the seat, and what does that really tell us?
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NEW: A mountain of research shows that high-skilled immigration is good for the economy. But what do voters think?
A new survey from
@InnovateEconomy
&
@EchelonInsights
finds overwhelming support from voters of all stripes for expanding high-skilled immigration. Let's dig in.
🧵
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This research confirms what has been known in DC for a long time: large incumbent firms pursue onerous regulations as a weapon to stifle competition from newer/smaller firms.
New paper finds that increased regulatory costs explain about a third of the increase in market power over the last 50 years.
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The future will be amazing if we just don’t screw it up.
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Would love to find the nonprofit responsible for this innovative seating/shade bus stop combo I discovered in DC today.
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The great stagnation is OVER
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I love that you can trace the birth of the semiconductor industry back to a series of key events that were only possible thanks to California’s 1872 decision not to recognize noncompete agreements.
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This is incredibly important new research.
“Three-generation poverty occurs among 1 in 100 Whites but describes the experience of 1 in 5 Black adults. Black adults in their 30s are over 16 times more likely than Whites are to have had both a parent and grandparent in poverty.”
Here's a new paper I'm proud of on the black-white gap in multigenerational poverty, with
@RichardvReeves
@ChrisLPulliam
@ArielGelrud
&
@santideambrosi
It's the first study to look at black-white differences in income mobility over 3 generations
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Let's be really clear on what happened here: SBA and Treasury came up with a rule that contradicts the plain language of the law, and in doing so, eviscerated the program's ability to provide relief to vulnerable businesses. It's astonishing that they continue to defend it.
Small businesses that spend more than 25% on rent, mortgage interest and utilities—as they often do in expensive cities like LA and NY—can't get PPP loans from the SBA that will be forgiven. Many will close
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City governments own a shocking amount of vacant/underutilized property—often with essentially zero strategy for putting it to productive use.
The city of Chicago alone owns 10,000 vacant lots concentrated in distressed and disinvested neighborhoods.
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America’s inability to master the boring-but-important stuff is literally going to kill us.
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Don’t look now, but Open Table data seems to be hinting at a significant, widespread drop in seated diners as a result of the new variant. The drop from 12/19 to 12/20 can be seen clearly in cities across the country—not isolated to any particular region.
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The big demographic advantage the U.S. once enjoyed over other rich nations has evaporated. Now there are more Americans 80 and older than 2 or younger.
The case for pro-family and pro-immigrant policies has never been stronger.
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No better indicator of a sclerotic society than “bans tall buildings.”
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There has been a major—and almost entirely unnoticed—advance in the research on the most significant place-based incentive on the books. That’s right: it’s time to update your priors on Opportunity Zones!
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The most striking thing to me: This survey finds no category of voters in which a majority—or even close to it—favor “higher taxes, more government” at any level.
Said differently: large majorities of voters across the political spectrum oppose “higher taxes, more government”
@AmerCompass
6/ Of course, government isn't free and, when asked about taxes and spending in combination, Republicans are more likely to opt for "lower taxes, less government." But even then, at the federal level, it's only 61%. At state and local levels, it's not even a majority view.
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Conservatives: toss out Coulter, D’Souza, & Milo and instead acquaint yourself with
@JDVance1
,
@SykesCharlie
, &
@JeffFlake
.
You’ll thank me.
How hard it is to get a book read by both sides. Thanks to colleagues and
@ValdisKrebs
for a great infographic.
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“It is our thankless job to remind the world that GDP is much more than just a line on a chart — and at the same time, to draw this line on this chart again and again, ad infinitum.”
Amen!
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Politics aside, Biden’s love for this country and belief in what it can accomplish is pure and unmistakable. God bless him.
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It’s time to build (in a far more cost effective manner because we cannot possible carry on like this as a country)
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There is something very clarifying about watching American government and industry achieve a previously unthinkable breakthrough in a matter of months. A Warp Speed/XPrize for energy innovation should be next.
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Over time we‘be come to accept pervasive interference in labor market competition as the norm, vs a sometimes necessary exception.
Glad to see this report address the harmful effects of noncompetes, no-poach agreements, occupational licensing, and more.
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I don’t think it’s sunk in yet that we have a miracle drug that can effectively end the pandemic as we know it. All we have to do is produce enough quantity and make it ubiquitously available. That’s it! Game over!
Where is the plan to make this happen on a global scale?
“The efficacy is high, the side effects are low and it’s oral. You’re looking at a 90% decreased risk of hospitalization and death in a high-risk group — that’s stunning.”
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This plus a decline in immigration are likely to have far-reaching consequences for the U.S. economy, which was already facing major demographic headwinds before the pandemic.
When unemployment rises, birth rates fall.
(In econ: birth rates are pro-cyclical.)
When income falls, birth rates fall.
(In econ: kids are "normal" kids.)
Hence - Half a million fewer children? The coming COVID baby bust , by
@phil_wellesley
& me
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My hot take is that having major ports ranked in the bottom 10% of global efficiency increases the likelihood of supply chain disruptions, and, as the world’s most advanced economy, the US should instead develop port infrastructure/operations that are up to modern standards.
Sounds familiar: "California ports, key to U.S. supply chain, among world's least efficient, ranking shows"
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This story—which will only become more common in the years ahead—underscores why a heartland visa would be such a game-changer.
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“The Canadian government … is already benefiting from U.S. visa restrictions. Since 2020, Vancouver and Toronto have seen the largest high-tech job growth in North America, outpacing Austin, Seattle and every other U.S. city.”
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Can’t describe how happy it makes me to see
@ModeledBehavior
referred to as a “bowling-alley tycoon” in the Washington Post. This is his dream come true.
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Join me in imagining a future where this is the norm for ~all occupational licenses. It could be ours!
MA Gov Baker: nurses and medical professionals from other states will be able to get licensed in MA in one day - just happenwd today. Will make it easier for hospitals with staffing
#CoronavirusPandemic
#wbz
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The proof that nothing will ever satisfy hardcore immigration restrictionists is that they twist themselves in knots to oppose high-skilled, high-wage legal immigration—in spite of overwhelming economic evidence and ***wild popularity with voters***.
I promise you, the fundamental problem with our immigration system is *not* that we take in too many 20 and 30somethings making six-figure salaries.
This is not consistent with the rest of the NatCon worldview, either.
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I’m glad to see
@Noahpinion
bring attention to perhaps my favorite
@ModeledBehavior
policy idea: replacing company-sponsored immigration with a regionally-based system.
The benefits could be huge — including helping tackle regional economic challenges.
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Greatly exaggerated, yes. One could even say it's a completely ...manufactured... story.
I'll see myself out, thanks.
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I’m thrilled to announce that
@CardiffGarcia
is joining
@InnovateEconomy
as Editorial Director—and coming with him is The New Bazaar podcast!
Cardiff’s remarkable talent for exploring economic trends and ideas will add exciting dimensions to EIG’s work.⬇️
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Important to note: Biden promised to *work with Congress* on noncompete reform.
And guess what? There is a bipartisan, bicameral bill to restrict noncompetes awaiting action.
But the White House ignored it and instead deferred to FTC rulemaking.
This is the predictable result.
NEW: Texas federal judge grants summary judgment against FTC’s noncompete ban, says rule is “set aside” and will not go into effect on September 4.
Opinion here:
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Demographic decline will be one of the defining issues of our time—and our institutions and political leaders are completely unprepared.
New county-level population data is out today. Wide swaths of the country are shrinking.
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We’re certainly not out of the woods yet, but the small business sector appears increasingly stable.
In a sign of stabilization, a majority of small businesses now have at least one month’s cash on hand and more than three quarters have received some sort of federal assistance. Read more insights from EIG's weekly analysis of the
#SmallBiz
Pulse Survey:
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