Sophia Gaston
@sophgaston
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Head of Foreign Policy at PX | Research: UK-US, Europe, Russia, China, AUKUS | + @UniofOxford , @LSEnews , @epc_eu | 🇬🇧 🇦🇺| mail @sophiagaston .com
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📣 Professional news! I'm starting a new role as Head of Foreign Policy and UK Resilience at
@Policy_Exchange
.
Continuing my research on UK-China relations, AUKUS, Euro-Atlantic geopolitics and security, public opinion and the intersection of domestic and international policy.
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Women! You will no doubt have been gifted, over the years, approximately 15,000 gift soaps as panic-buy last-minute presents over the years.
Guilt will have compelled you to keep them all, rendering one drawer an overwhelming grotto of bergamot and lavender. Now is your moment.
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☀️ GOOD NEWS ☀️
In just one month from now, the sun will set in London a full hour later than it has today, at 5.28pm.
A month after that, the combined longer day and the arrival of BST will see the sun set at 7.25pm 🥰
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In case anybody missed the latest shocking developments in Hungary this week - the Editor-in-Chief of Hungary's largest news website (the last major independent source) was fired in a brazen act of political interference & 70 of his staff have left in protest over press freedom.
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The predictable consequence of the PM’s astonishing decision to leave the D-Day commemorations early is that in Zelenskyy’s moving video of his attendance, Britain - Ukraine’s most ardent ally - is represented by the leader of the opposition.
The unity that defines history. Today in France, alongside our allies, we honored the bravery of the Allied forces who landed in Normandy 80 years ago. We remember. We thank them. We uphold the values of the defenders of life.
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People need to travel to be with families.
Holidays abroad are hugely beneficial, not just for cultural enrichment or dependent jobs, but for some people's mental & physical health.
Travel isn't important to you? Fine. But spare the relentless shaming of those for whom it is.
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Let's be clear:
1. A Biden presidency is GOOD for UK foreign policy. Our strategic objectives align & it reduces pressure on UK to take on America's moral mission.
2. Biden's transatlantic strategy will encourage close UK-EU relations, which may be uncomfortable for HMG.
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The weirdest thing about the Oprah interview, and there are MANY, is that there is not one reference (despite the exhausting chat about their security arrangements) to British taxpayers or the British people and the enduring compact between them and the monarchy.
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We should be proud as punch the UK is leading the way in Europe on vaccinations 🇬🇧
But gloating is misplaced. It is palpably in our interests for our neighbours to succeed too. We’re a connected, open nation. The quicker we’re all jabbed, the sooner we can all open up, safely.
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If you’re horrified by what’s happening to Ukraine and its people, there are many practical ways to help. The Ukrainian Institute in London has put together a list of charities needing donations, as well as reputable media sources to follow. Please share👇🏻
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Huawei situation is ultimately a failure of multilateralism in the West.
Why did the 5 Eyes & key EU partners not work together 5-10 years ago to devise a co-funded alternative provider, to rival the cost & speed of the services of an autocratic state?
And why not start now?
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I don't think it's well understood outside Britain how close the UK-Japan relationship has become. It is one of the most significant geopolitical developments of recent times - as shared guardians of the indivisibility doctrine between the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific theatres.
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Double jabbed! A very happy Oxford-AstraZeneca customer. A feeling of elation. The light is coming into view 🌟🦋
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Love this new French ad campaign to boost uptake of the Covid-19 vaccine 💋
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In Merseyside, the boycott of The Sun after Hillsborough & the subsequent shift to The Mirror, encouraged the area to be more pro-European & pro-Remain than other similar areas.
Fascinating new preliminary media effect findings trailed in the FT.
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As Sweden goes to the polls next month, 'refugees and immigrants' has leapt to the top of public concerns, ahead of 'health care' and 'law and order' (issues also linked to concerns about immigration).
Source: Aftonbladet / Inizio
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Public loos in St James’ Park closed at 7pm tonight. It got dark at 10.30pm. A queue formed to go to the loo on a pile of leaves hidden from public view.
You cannot move everyone’s social lives to parks & then create a new public health crisis, compromising basic human dignity.
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A year ago today, I lost one of the most important people in my life. Grief is a demanding and unpredictable companion.
I have learned two things:
1. You will never feel more human and alive than when you are grieving.
2. Love recklessly - to the very edges of your heart.
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I haven't seen two of my closest family members for 10 months now due to the pandemic. It hurts. I'm sure many are the same.
My mother sent me this extract from a letter Keats wrote to family on overcoming distance. I hope it will bring comfort to others as it has done for me.
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Astonishing graph of the political dimensions of Covid-19 vaccination uptake rates in the USA, via
@nprpolitics
.
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Just had my first AstraZeneca vaccine! Super efficient and a joyful atmosphere. NHS is doing an amazing job 🌟
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Astonishing to think that in the space of just seven years, we have had seven Foreign Secretaries...
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I made the mistake of suggesting on telly this weekend that, rather than simply a glowing record of community spirit, the Blitz also saw violent & petty crime spike dramatically - and have now activated the ‘Blitz purists’... whom I imagine are stockpiling like maniacs.
I hope all the people who assured me Britain was far too Blitz Spirit Dunkirk Agencourt to worry about supply chain impacts of No Deal are enjoying the sight of their fellow citizens fist fighting over toilet paper in the face of an yet entirely imaginary shortage.
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Three questions to ask of the proposed UK hotel quarantine system:
1. How will exemptions (ie. deaths, births, funerals) be managed & what will they be?
2. What provisions will be in place for mental health, fresh air, exercise?
3. What is the roadmap to abolishing the system?
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Downgrading the prestige of our official buildings is the last thing Britain should be doing. Imagine the French having this conversation?! In 9/10 cases it adds to our influence, not detracts. No reason for our history to impede our agility or effectiveness as a 21st C power.
Excl: senior former UK officials call for FCDO to be abolished & replaced by new Department for International Affairs with “fewer colonial era pictures on the wall".
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Question: why is quitting smoking not a big part of the govt's COVID-19 public health message? It's a respiratory illness, anxiety is rife, smokers confined to homes with children. Surely the longer-term public health benefits if even small % quits could mitigate other set-backs?
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I would 100% watch a Westminster version of Wife Swap, where journalists, SpAds, think tankers do a month in the job they are suggested on the Government's retraining careers website, and bemused plumbers, librarians & football referees find themselves in the corridors of power.
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If the vigil had been given the green light, I have no doubt it would have been a peaceful and pretty Covid-secure event. Women needed, and deserved, that catharsis. The ban heightened tensions and a sense of injustice. All of this is utterly unnecessary, but will be costly.
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Much jubilation around this, but I’m afraid it’s the other side of the erosion of the conventions upholding our liberal democracy. If you’re concerned re. populist incursions, then this break with impartiality should trouble you too. Tit for tat won’t strengthen our democracy.
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Spotted in North London: lockdown park wine decanter 💁🏼♀️
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Good news!! In just 33 days, the sun will set in London a full hour later than it will tonight. In 65 days from today, it will set a full two hours later, at around 7.30pm, after nearly 13 hours of daylight ☀️☀️
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The one dividend of the lack of European conferences this past year is not having to stand awkwardly around with a tiny espresso cup of Lipton Yellow Label - a vessel completely unsuitable for the consumption of tea, and a tea completely unsuitable for consumption.
2021. And this is - still - being sold across the world.
No, Europe. When I want tea I don't want this. Ever.
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Thrilled to think that any weary delegates who do finally make it up for COP26 tonight in Glasgow will stumble out of the train station into the dystopian scene of thousands of drunk, sodden, gleeful teenagers staggering around in Halloween costumes. A truly British welcome 🇬🇧
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Hilary Benn: "If you want to be completely sovereign, go find an empty room, shut the door and sit inside it alone."
#Brexit
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This is appalling. Seeking to draw such preposterous moral equivalence does nothing to strengthen our democracy and serves only the interests of authoritarian and totalitarian states.
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Many of the nations that have performed “best” in the pandemic have strong regional governance frameworks.
The UK remains in the infancy of its devolution story, and efforts to pivot mid-crisis from a national to regional approach highlight how far we have to go.
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* is how families come together and are reunited
* opens hearts and minds to different cultures and histories
* challenges the frankly disturbing, insular world views being expressed here.
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Can confirm that Europe still exists and is magical. Do recommend.
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The misogyny and careless sexism that continues to fester in large parts of our political life has been seamlessly matched by the misogyny and careless sexism of large swathes of the media coverage & social media debate around the recent events in question. Well done all.
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“I’m glad you changed your glasses as otherwise this would have looked like a father-son reunion” -
@SebastianEPayne
to
@michaelgove
at the packed launch of Broken Heartlands at Tory conference.
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Anyone who chooses to allow Russian efforts to interfere in our politics to be framed in partisan terms & only of concern when the ‘other side’ is targeted, is undermining the collective responsibility to protect our democracy and contributing to its vulnerability. That’s it.
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Extraordinary speech by the UK Foreign Secretary on China last night. Its objective appears to be to give clarity on UK's position to domestic and international audiences, and make the case for UK-China 🇬🇧🇨🇳engagement.
Remarkable for a few reasons... 🧵
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The BBC's tangible attributes - ie. upholding a shared objective reality, projecting British culture - are only possible because of its universality. It may not always perform to its potential, but its very existence is a huge structural UK advantage that could never be regained.
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Increasingly convinced that socialising in London this winter will be limited to hovering around in duffle coats, warming our hands over a wheelie bin fire in the park.
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New data from the National Grid shows just 2% of UK energy output now comes from coal, down from 75.5% in 1990. Nearly half of our energy now comes from renewables.
In Australia, three-quarters of energy is still produced by black and brown coal alone. (via
@BevanShields
)
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Could not be more proud of my almost-97-year-old grandfather, WWII veteran, marching in today’s ANZAC parade in Melbourne to honour the memory of his fallen mates. Lest we forget. 🇦🇺
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📢JOB NEWS: Delighted to launch the Centre for Social and Political Risk, exploring the social/economic forces destabilising Western democracies, based at
@HJS_Org
I'm also now a Visiting Research Fellow at the LSE, focused on polarisation & misinformation🙂
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18 months after Theresa May stepped down and my iPhone autocorrect is still clinging on, capitalising “may” in an act of stubborn defiance.
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The British are instinctively optimistic people. Around 75% of life in in the UK is spent waiting for a favourable Gulf Stream ocean current, which almost never arrives.
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This is extremely apparent in focus groups as well. These slogans, as well as media language - 'saboteurs', 'traitors' - are now fundamentally embedded in vocabulary and have become an obstacle to any degree of reasoning or compromise.
Brexit party rally thread by
@lewis_goodall
which suggests how Theresa May’s use of binary language - brexit means brexit, no deal is better than a bad deal - now contributes to her own political pain
👇
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A truly global capital: London's migrant population positively dwarfs every other European city - via
@ECThinkTank
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Back from a break in Europe. Travel can be essential for many reasons, but just to affirm there’s absolutely nothing wrong with valuing holidays abroad, nor believing that immersion in other cultures and landscapes can be hugely beneficial to one’s mental and physical health.
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These kinds of surveys are beginning to feel quite irresponsible. Without conjoint analysis and/or contextual information, they are not producing meaningful data-sets from which citizens' behaviour should be anticipated nor policy choices should be made.
68% of Britons say they would support a two-week nation-wide "circuit breaker" lockdown at the start of the school half term later this month
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Miserable watching border snap shut around the world. Many of us still have not reunited with family & loved ones abroad, and after nearly two years of learning not to hope, it finally felt firmly in sight. There’s another layer of emotional strain to this new variant panic.
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Much in life I will never conquer, but god I do miss the tactical thrill of being a high-skilled traveller. The strategic triumph of a fortnight’s clothes in cabin baggage. Optimum Heathrow Express scheduling. Manoeuvring around security like a choreographed dance routine.. 😢
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Very simple litmus test for this turbulent decade has always been: if your message aligns with Vladimir Putin, or your campaign's success is celebrated by the Kremlin, you should probably reflect on what that means.
Breaking just now. Vladimir Putin Will not recognise Joe
#Biden
as president —at least not yet. “There are ongoing legal processes,” says his spokesman Dimitry Peskov
#USElection
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I’m screaming into the dark but can I pls draw attention to the costs associated w/ implementing mandatory hotel quarantine. It creates bottlenecks. Australia has 40k citizens stranded. Funerals, deaths, births missed. Families separated. This is not an easy win without a price.
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This is precisely why framing allegations of foreign interference in our democracies as partisan isn't just reckless towards our institutions, but also frankly stupid.
Your side may be the beneficiaries today, and then find itself under attack tomorrow. And we all lose.
🚨 Huge. Reddit security team believes the Reddit post of leaked US-UK trade documents used by Jeremy Corbyn and Labour was part of a co-ordinated campaign coming from Russia
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Agree 💯 that debates should be embedded as uncontested aspect of UK elections. We are total global outliers on this.
Just one caveat - American debates commission is essentially a Dem-GOP collusion to entrench two-party system. So we could probably do with our own model!
The BBC Neil/Johnson debacle really shows why, like the Americans, we need to make TV debates/election events independent. No parties playing games, no broadcasters competing with each other, just an independent commission which sets this stuff up in advance. Fair and transparent
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Fascinating new
@ASPI_org
report ranking Western vulnerabilities to Chinese dominance in critical technologies. Great to see some of the UK's core strengths highlighted. But there are some sobering conclusions and an urgency to act. A must-read.
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Incredible stats from
@bbcworldservice
on its reach this past week since Russia invaded Ukraine:
- Russian-language audience > tripled to 10.7m
- Russian BBC website visitors up 252%
- Ukrainian-language BBC traffic > doubled
- Social media audiences expected to be even higher
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A reminder of the seriousness of the allegations at the heart of the Geoffrey Boycott knighthood storm.
(from a 1998
@Independent
article on the trial)
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One of the most astonishing things about this is the lack of soft power benefit the US is receiving for this generosity. Nobody in my UK focus groups seems to know that America is contributing in this way at all.
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French & Spanish are two of the most widely spoken languages in the world. And, like English, unique in stretching across the globe outside of their 'home' nations. Increasing knowledge of these, AND other, languages in the UK should be a critical component of 'Global Britain'.
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Divine to see so many gorgeous faces last night in Westminster for the launch of Broken Heartlands by
@SebastianEPayne
.
Having witnessed the writing process first-hand 🥰 I know it was a labour of love, producing a tome that seamlessly straddles the personal & societal. Bravo!
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Delighted to publish
@thebfpg
’s 2021 public opinion report – the most comprehensive survey undertaken on UK views on foreign policy. It's also a study that reveals so much about the UK’s social fabric & political landscape.
Some highlights... (thread)
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🇬🇧🇺🇸🇦🇺 AUKUS Day 🇬🇧🇺🇸🇦🇺
What do the British people think about the trilateral AUKUS security pact?
I designed a survey put to the field this past weekend with my friends
@OpiniumResearch
to find out.
Short thread of the findings:
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There's been lots of talk about Brexit forcing a choice between US or EU alignment. It looks as though Govt is keen to inject a third party into the mix: Australia.
So what's the rationale behind the spotlight on a nation of 25m people on the other side of the world? [Thread..]
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This is interesting - follows Australia's move to submit all foreign investment proposals for review during the pandemic, to avoid distressed local companies being snapped up 'against the national interest'.
The Swedish parliament has agreed to introduce new legislation to stop foreign investments that harm the country's security interests. Sweden now lacks a national investment-screening mechanism. Growing Chinese investments have spurred the debate.
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"The truth is that this country cannot have a sensible discussion about defence", says Owen Jones, opening the most deeply unserious and nonsensical article about defence spending I have ever seen.
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How successful has integration been in your country?
Britain: 55% successful vs. 36% unsuccessful
Germany: 31% successful vs. 63% unsuccessful
Sweden (w/ election this year): 24% successful vs. 73% unsuccessful
(
@EurobarometerEU
)
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On the subject of statues, may I draw your attention to a modern masterpiece, 'Cow Up a Tree', in Melbourne's docklands.
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#Brexit
revealed profound attitudinal diffs: 80% of ppl against gender equality & 79% against gay equality voted Leave:
@GoodwinMJ
@UKandEU
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Very welcome to see some focused thinking directed towards our engagement with China. We urgently need a long-term strategic plan for UK-China relations, which learns from our allies, and better balances our security, economic interests, and our values.
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I have been fortunate to spend the past few weeks in Europe, and I have never been more conscious of the privilege inherent in the freedom to travel, nor more certain of its value.
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With a great majority comes great responsibility. The Conservative Party made itself the party of Brexit & will now be fully accountable to the public's scrutiny as it unfolds. They will own any 'dividends', but they will also fully bear its challenges. The next chapter begins.
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10. More Brits would prefer a closer UK-EU relationship than the Brexit deal provides (49%), than the proportion who back the deal (24%) or favour a looser relationship (12%). This shows the space for a more pragmatic public debate about UK-EU cooperation in the future.
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📢 Foreign policy/security/defence people:
Who are the best **female experts** in the field? Who should be invited to speak and chair debates?
UK, US, Europe - all names gratefully received.
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So wonderful. A candid, very human moment that goes well beyond the procedural theatre of politics that dominates most of what citizens will ever see.
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Still haunted by this extremely cursed Sunday Times Travel section front from March 15...
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2020 sure is wild: this is currently the front page of the Daily Mail.
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Is anybody talking about the gender balance problem in UK political podcasts? We’ve created a whole new arena of political public speaking, where the burgeoning awareness of women’s absent voices in broadcast & panel events doesn’t seem to apply.
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Extraordinary chart. Although, it would have been useful to also have the EU as a bloc in here.
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Deep concern I have with many of the focus groups parties have been doing in recent years, is they are confirmatory and/or superficial. Never interrogating whether participants understand the true nature of policies, nor presenting their trade-offs. Not healthy for governance.
I don't think they focus group actual policies. They focus group slogans. 'Get Brexit Done'; 'Australian-Style Points-Based Immigration'; 'Full Life Terms For Child Killers'; '20 New Hospitals'. They're not just false or misleading, they're abject denials of reality. Like Brexit.
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It is absolutely nuts that we can be trying on clothes in shops, running maskless at the gym and jostling in supermarkets, and there are still WEEKS until we can wander through a spacious art gallery. I'm so glad we have the freedoms we do - but why are galleries still closed???
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First ANZAC Day without my beloved grandfather Frank. He died last year at 98. Marched unassisted in the annual parade until the end.
At War’s end, Frank treated Japanese POWs in his care so kindly, their captain gave him this watch. He was integrity embodied. Lest We Forget 🇦🇺
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Ahead of the big EU Council meeting, worth noting that considerably more Hungarians support democratic conditionality of EU funds than oppose it. Orbán at odds with the mood of his population.
Source:
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Ready availability of affordable taxis in London not only facilitated economic productivity but transformed women’s safety. The crisis afflicting Uber & black cabs (plus tube stations on skeleton hours) is leaving women stranded on the streets. It’s not just an “inconvenience”.
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We often talk about culture war divides between parties. It's important to remember the splits within them too. On many of these thorny issues, young Tories have more in common with young Labour voters than their older Tory counterparts.
(via my 2019 survey w/
@OpiniumResearch
)
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There are more Marks (3) than women (1) on the International Trade Select Committee. There's also a Matt, Mick & Martin.
Our trade policy will be one of the most important social & economic issues of this political term. This shouldn't have happened.
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These videos are a hugely positive contribution of the FS Cameron era, and I hope they are embraced and expanded by his successors. We consistently insult the intelligence of the British people by refusing to involve them in the conversation about our foreign and security policy.
NATO’s 75th … a Foreign Ministers’ meeting … and what needs to happen next
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Fascinating details in
@nytimes
of the factors weighing most heavily on Chancellor Merkel's decision not to attend Trump's hastily convened G7 summit.
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In a week’s time, we will have just willingly chosen to bring forward the rapidly advancing nightfall, until the concepts of ‘night’ and ‘day’ lose their distinction and we become creatures of the menacing darkness for six gruelling, interminable months 🙃
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Would be a moment of national madness to relinquish this platform that provides incredibly good value-for-money returns for our society, our democracy, and our global influence. It's brilliant we have a thriving commercial media marketplace, but the BBC plays a distinct role.
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