Negotinec12
@HurryRainer
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@kos_data
Nationalism wont stop young Albanians from leaving the country en masse and it wont save from the coming collapse in births once their fertile population starts its decline.
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@nonebusinesshey
Based and ultra-conservative South Jeolla province with a TFR of almost 1 vs Gay and liberal Seoul
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@BirthGauge
Macedonia
Births / Deaths = Natural increase
Sep 2022 - 1,624 / 1,625 = -1
Sep 2023 - 1,407 / 1,581 = -174
-217 (-13.4%) / -44 (-2.7%)
Jan-Sep 2022 - 13,344 / 17,332 = -3,988
Jan-Sep 2023 - 12,128 / 14,710 = -2,582
-1,216 (-9.1%) / -2,622 (-15.1%)
* - preliminary data
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@SigurimiShtet
So you just unite the 2 places, doesn't really fix the problem.
What will happen is Kosovo will be forgotten and underdeveloped so even more will emigrate to Tirana and west.
So TFR will decrease even more and the 1,5m extra people will be gone by 2050.
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@BosqueAli
@BirthGauge
i mean they are getting a huge suppy of migrants every year who have more kids on average then them
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@BirthGauge
Serbia births / deaths = natural increase
May 2021 - 4762 / 10525 = -5763
May 2022 - 5007 / 8387 = -3380
+245 (+5,14 %) / -2138 (-20,31 %)
Jan-may 2021 - 23656 / 56719 = -33063
Jan-may 2022 - 24171 / 52602 = -28431
+515 (+2,17 %) / -4117 (-7,26 %)
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@Europeandream46
The overwhelming majority of undeclared or unknown are Russians, around 3-3.5m kids under 15 once again overwhelming majority Russian also werent registerd on the cencus. With all this Russians are about 82-83% of the population and with the new territories and refugees 85%
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@BirthGauge
Greece
Births / Deaths = Natural increase
April 2022: 5,716 / 12,885 = -7,169
April 2023: 4,843 / 9,808 = -4,965
-873 (-15.3%) / -3,077 (-23.9%)
Jan-Apr 2022: 23,956 / 54,147 = -30,191
Jan-Apr 2023: 22,758 / 46,795 = -24,037
-1,198 (-5.0%) / -7,352 (-13.6%)
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@BirthGauge
Uzbekistan
Births / Deaths = Natural increase
2021 - 905,211/ 174,541= 730,670
2022 - 932,192/ 172,075 = 760,117
+26,981 (3.0%) / -2,466 (-1.4%)
TFR - 3.2
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@BirthGauge
Tunisia
Births / Deaths = Natural growth
I-VI 2021 - 76,449 / 46,943 = +29,506
I-VI 2022 - 58,354 / 33,393 = +24,961
-18,095 (-23.7%) / -13,550 (-28.9%)
Probably problems with registrating births since the last 3 months all have 30-40% declines
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@BirthGauge
Macedonia - Final data
Births / Deaths = Natural increase
2022 - 18,073 / 22,459 = -4,386
2023 - 16,737 / 20,187 = -3,450
-1,336 (-7.4%) / -2,272 (-10.1%)
TFR most likely fell from 1,59 to 1,5
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@Jug_Skoplje
@cristian__dobre
Emigration will continue to eat Bulgaria forever because no matter how much changes Bulgaria will always be poorer then the rest of the EU and life will always be better outside of Bulgaria, and joining the Schengen will only make it worse
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@BirthGauge
Macedonia
Births / Deaths = Natural increase
Jan 2022 - 1,093 / 2,228 = -1,135
Jan 2023 - 1,110 / 1,706 = -596
+17 (+1.5%) / -522 (-23.4%)
All data is preliminary
- page 71
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@BirthGauge
Hungary
Births / Deaths = Natural increase
Feb 2022 - 6,090 / 12,450 = -6,360
Feb 2023 - 6,526 / 10,760 = -4,234
+436 (+7.2%) / -1,690 (-14%)
Jan-Feb 2022 - 12,705 / 25,656 = −12,951
Jan-Feb 2023 - 14,057 / 22,546 = −8,489
1,352 (+11%) / −3,110 (−12%)
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@BirthGauge
Macedonia
Births / Deaths = Natural increase
January 2023 - 1,110 / 1,706 = -596
January 2024 - 1,145 / 1,874 = -729
+35 (+3.2%) / +168 (+9.8%)
All data is preliminary
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@BirthGauge
Macedonia
Births / Deaths = Natural decline
March 2022 - 1,557 / 2,162 = -605
March 2023 - 1,279 / 1,833 = -554
-278 (-17.9%) / -329 (-15.2%)
Q1 2022 - 4,009 / 7,427 = -3,418
Q1 2023 - 3,656 / 5,233 = -1,577
-353 (-8.8%) / -2,194 (-29.5%)
* - All data is preliminary
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@SigurimiShtet
Not as much in Macedonia and also Pustec and golo brdo are forgotten in Albania
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@BirthGauge
Macedonia
Births / Deaths = Natural increase
Feb 2023 - 1,267 / 1,694 = -427
Feb 2024 - 1,314 / 1,742 = -428
+47 (+3.7%) / +48 (+2.8%)
Jan-Feb 2023 - 2,377 / 3,400 = -1,023
Jan-Feb 2024 - 2,459 / 3,616 = -1,157
+82 (+3.4%) / +216 (+6.3%)
All data is preliminary
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@people_silly
@LouieWIII
in that 57% youre counting jews, arabs, central asians (incl afghans, persians), armenians, azeris and north africans so the real number is probably 52% or 53%
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@BirthGauge
Slovakia
Births / Deaths = Natural increase
Jan 2022 - 4,398 / 5,662 = -1,264
Jan 2023 - 3,968 / 5,045 = -1,077
-430 (-9.8%) / -617 (-10.9%)
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@BirthGauge
South Korea
Births / Deaths = Natural increase
Jan 2022 - 24,665 / 29,848 = -5,183
Jan 2023 - 23,179 / 32,703 = -9,524
-1,486 (-6.0%) / +2,855 (+9.6%)
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@BirthGauge
You should look at Bulgarias data as well their TFR for 2021 has been revised up to 1.8 from 1.6
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@BirthGauge
Macedonia
Births / Deaths = Natural increase
Dec 2022 - 1,261 / 1,753 = -492
Dec 2023 - 1,299 / 1,696 = -397
+38 (+3,0%) / -57 (-3.3%)
2022 - 17,771 / 22,375 = -4,604
2023 - 16,313 / 19,738 = -3,425
-1,458 (-8.2%) / -2,637 (-11.8%)
All data is preliminary
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@BirthGauge
Bulgaria
Q1 2022 - 12,393 / 36,173 = -23,780
Q1 2023 - 12,550 / 24,611 = -12,061
+153 (+1.3%) / -11,562 (-32.0%)
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@nusjaemaleve
"and cannot speak their mother tongue" - 99%+ speak their own language
"are forcibly assimilated" - Not happening
"are subject to state discrimination" - Why would the Albanian led government do such a thing??
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@BirthGauge
@andreau1990
Yea makes sense their fertile population is very low smt like 23-24% and most of the decline since 2021 has been among them.
With this their population would range from 7,494,134 with a TFR of 1,4 to 8,064,134 with a TFR of 1,3
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@BirthGauge
How much will this raise TFR among foreigners since 1m for them is 5-10% of their population while 400k for Germans is less then a %?
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@BirthGauge
bosnians tfr use to be close to 2 now its around 1.5-1.6 maybe. there is massive emigration thats not counted in bosnia that country on wiki has 3.4m but in reality its around 2.5-2.6m
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@Aaronal16
The fertile population in Serbia will decrease by over 160k in the next 10 years, possible even to 200k with emigration. If Serbia can hold their births at their 2022 level (62,7k) by 2032 they should have a TFR of 1.8-1.85
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@BirthGauge
@dousris3
Macedonia
Oct 2022 - 1,556 / 1,533 = +23
Oct 2023 - 1,503 / 1,654 = -151
-53 (-3.4%) / +121 (+7.9%)
Jan-Oct 2022 - 14,912 / 18,810 = -3,898
Jan-Oct 2023 - 13,631 / 16,364 = -2,733
-1,281 (-8.6%) / -2,446 (-13.0%)
All data is preliminary
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@BirthGauge
Belgium
Births / Deaths = Natural increase
Jan 2022 - 9,416 / 10,476 = -1,060
Jan 2023 - 9,159 / 11,127 = -1,968
-257 (-2.7%) / +651 (+6.0%)
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@BirthGauge
@andreau1990
This would give them a population of 7,700,186 for a TFR of 1,3 and 6,940,186 for a TFR of 1,4 if we estimate that for every 1 fertile women that has emigrated 3 others have also (1/4 25%)
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@BirthGauge
Macedonia - Final data for births and deaths
2021 - 18,648 / 28,516 = -9,868
2022 - 18,073 / 22,459 = -4,386
-575 (-3.1%) / -6,057 (-21.2%)
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@KMaminski
Their birth rate is so low 2 years of births wont make up 1% of the population and for 1% male and female they would need 5 years.
Korea will soon see a 0-14 age structure of 7-9%.
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@BirthGauge
New Zealand births / Deaths = Natural increase
jan-march 2021 - 14,070 / 8,235 = +5,835
jan-march 2022 - 15,555 / 8,700 = +6,855
+1,485 (+10.55%) / +465 (+5.64%) = +1,020
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@BirthGauge
@dousris3
Slovenia
Births / Deaths = Natural increase
Nov 2022 - 1,317 / 1,832 = -515
Nov 2023 - 1,438 / 1,808 = -370
+121 (+9.2%) / -24 (-1.3%)
Jan-Nov 2022 - 16,260 / 20,237 = -3,977
Jan-Nov 2023 - 15,590/ 19,246 = -3,656
-670 (-4.1%) / -991 (-4.9%)
All data is preliminary
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@BirthGauge
Bulgaria
Births / Deaths = Natural increase
Q3 - 14,267 / 23,812 = -9,545
Q3 - 12,810 / 22,067 = -9,257
-1,457 (-10.2%) / -1,745 (-7.3%)
Q1-3 - 40,438 / 85,288 = -44,850
Q1-3 - 36,881 / 64,016 = -27,135
-3,557 (-8.8%) / -21,272 (-24.9%)
Sofia has a decline of 2,285 or 19%
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@Aaronal16
Bosnias population in reality is closer to 2.6-2.8m then the official 3.35m
If the fertile population which is estimated at 755k is reduced to 500k as younger people emigrate the most the TFR of BiH would increase from 1,23 to 1,65.
This all depends on how big the decline is.
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@BirthGauge
Albania
Births / Deaths = Natural increase
2021 - 26,314 / 29,280 = -2,966
2022 - 23,575 / 22,900 = +675
-2,739 (-10.4%) / -6,380 (-21.8%)
Q4 2021 - 6,911 / 7,809 = -898
Q4 2022 - 5,963 / 4,916 = +1,047
-948 (-13.7%) / -2,893 (-37.0%)
*All data is preliminary
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@BirthGauge
Macedonia
July 2022 - 1,601 / 1,528 = 73
July 2023 - 1,403 / 1,563 = -160
-198 (-12.4%) / +35 (2.3%)
Jan-July 2022 - 9,989 / 13,715 = -3,726
Jan-July 2023 - 9,078 / 11,526 = -2,448
-911 (-9.1%) / -2,189 (-16.0%)
All data is preliminary
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@JReputu4955
@BirthGauge
@Balkandemograph
@ZmajDespotVuk
@Aaronal16
You are comparing preliminary data with final data, you should compare preliminary with preliminary for both years because Albania adds a lot more births in final numbers.
Births are down -108 / (-2,1%) in q1 2024 compared to q1 2023 and deaths -20 / (-0.4%)
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@BirthGauge
bosnia also has massive unreported emigration their real population is closer to 2.6m then the 3m+ thats official
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@albanianstats
If the decline among the fertile pop was proportionately the same as the overall population decline then the TFR would be revised upwards by 9,9% from 1,11 to 1,22.
If the decline was bigger among the fertile population which is likely the TFR would range from 1,25-1,3.
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@BirthGauge
Macedonia
Births / Deaths = Natural increase
XI 2021 - 1,594 / 2,403 = -809
XI 2022 - 1,610 / 1,757 = -147
+16 (+1.0%) / -646 (-26.9%)
I-XI 2021 - 16,736 / 26,246 = -9,510
I-XI 2022 - 16,510 / 20,622 = -4,112
-226 (-1.4%) / -5,624 (-21.4%)
* - All data is preliminary
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@BirthGauge
remeber in macedonia there was a boycot by the ministry and many births and death went undeclered. they will most likely be reported in the coming months or the end of the year
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@JReputu4955
@BirthGauge
@Balkandemograph
@ZmajDespotVuk
@Aaronal16
Albania - final data
Births / deaths = natural increase
2022 - 24,688 / 23,998 = +690
2023 - 23,617 / 21,286 = +2,331
-1,071 (-4.3%) / -2,712 (-11.3%)
The TFR most likely stayed the same at 1,21 or increased to 1,22 due to the big decline in the fertile population (-4,8%)
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@BirthGauge
Bulgaria
Births / Deaths = Natural increase
2021 - 54,587 / 140,439 = -85,852
2022 - 53,257 / 114,130 = -60,873
-1,330 (-2.4%) / -26,309 (-18.7%)
Q4 2021 - 13,791 / 44,389 = -30,598
Q4 2022 - 12,819 / 28,842 = -16,023
-972 (-7%) / -15,547 (-35%)
~ - all data is preliminary
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@SigurimiShtet
Butel and Jegunovce are majority/plurality Macedonian.
Kicevo as of 2023 has a slight Macedonian majority if it didnt in 2021.
Brvenica and Struga have big Macedonian minorities (35-45%)
Mavrovo is majority muslim Macedonian, and CZ has a big muslim Macedonian minority.
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@BirthGauge
Macedonia
Births / Deaths = Natural increase
May 2023 - 1,565 / 1,741 = -176
May 2024 - 1,259 / 1,592 = -333
-306 (-19.6%) / -149 (-8.6%)
Jan-May 2023 - 6,361 / 8,528 = -2,167
Jan-May 2024 - 6,184 / 8,339 = -2,155
-177 (-2.8%) / -189 (-2.2%)
All data is preliminary
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@Aaronal16
96% Muslim and 55-60% Roma majority Šuto Orizari had a TFR of only 1,97 in 2022.
Roma in Skopje in 2022 most likely have a TFR around or lower then 2.5
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@BirthGauge
Macedonia
Births / deaths = natural increase
April 2023 - 1,140 / 1,554 = -414
April 2024 - 1,293 / 1,548 = -255
+153 (+13.4%) / -6 (-0.4%)
Jan-Apr 2023 - 4,796 / 6,787 = -1,991
Jan-Apr 2024 - 4,925 / 6,747 = -1,822
+129 (+2.7%) / -40 (-0.6%)
All data is preliminary
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@saleskopski
@OpstinaKarpos
Opstina so 6-7% muslimani i 90%+ hristijani ke ima poveke dzamii nego crkvi
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@BirthGauge
Macedonia
Births / Deaths = Natural increase
Aug 2022 - 1,731 / 1,992 = -261
Aug 2023 - 1,643 / 1,603 = +40
-88 (-5.1%) / -389 (-19.5%)
Jan-Aug 2022 - 11,720 / 15,707 = -3,987
Jan-Aug 2023 - 10,721 / 13,129 = -2,408
-999 (-8.5%) / -2,578 (-16.4%)
All data is preliminary
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@albanianstats
Albania
1990: 3.3m pop. / 82k births / TFR - 3
2022: 2.5m pop. / 24.5k births / TFR - 1.4
From 1990-2022 Albania had a total natural growth of 840k but the population declined by 800k which means that over 1.6m people have emigrated from Albania or 2m+ with their descendants.
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@BirthGauge
data results for Bulgarias 2021 cencus
Age structure for Bulgaria by ethnicity 2021
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@BirthGauge
Faroe Islands
births / deaths = natural increase
jan-may 2021 - 304 / 172 = +132
jan-may 2022 - 271 / 230 = +41
-33 (-10.9%) / +58 (+33.7%)
may 2022 - 60 / 32 = +28
may 2022 - 67 / 45 = +22
+7 (+11.7%) / +13 (+40.6%)
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@Malesori4
@Aaronal16
Thats a -2.7% decline from 2018 to 2022 which is not bad at all and WOCBA definitely declined more then births in %. 🇷🇸 TFR in 2022 - 1.6
In the same time
🇧🇦 - -13.7%
🇲🇰 - -16.7%
🇽🇰 - -2.0%
🇭🇷 - -8.0%
🇦🇱 - -18.5%
🇸🇮 - -11.2%
All data for 2022 is preliminary for all countries.
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@BirthGauge
🇲🇰 MKD
Births / Deaths = Natural increase
Nov 2022 - 1,610 / 1,757 = -147
Nov 2023 - 1,383 / 1,678 = -295
-227 (-14.1%) / -79 (-4.5%)
Jan-Nov 2022 - 16,442 / 20,720 = -4,278
Jan-Nov 2023 - 15,014 / 18,042 = -3,028
-1,428 (-8.7%) / -2,678 (-12.9%)
All data is preliminary
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@BirthGauge
Egypt births / deaths = Natural increase
jan 2021 - 168,000 / 69,500 = +98,500
jan 2022 - 185,300 / 69,000 = +116,300
+17,300 (+10.3%) / -500 (-0.8%) = +17,800
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@AccurateCaption
Wonder if the decline in births back home is made up for in the US by the new migrants.
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@Malesori4
@kos_data
Much closer to Macedonians then either Bulgarians or Serbs we even have 2 gorani villiges in Macedonia.
But with most muslim Macedonians identity and politics are mixed and most of them identify as either Turkish or Bosnians.
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@Malesori4
@BirthGauge
When you take into account the mixing among Whites the TFR for NHW is closer to 1,3-1,35 then to 1,54 while the BM TFR would be larger due to more mixing compared to BW.
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@demomkd
6k Makedonci nemaat dovolno deca za 1 paralelka od 30, zatoa vo narednive godini da ne se cudime koga ke ima masovno zatvaranje na skoli niz cela Makedonija i po sekoe selo.
Vo site opstini kade VMRO+VLEN koalicija tepaa na poslednite lokalni Makedoncite imaat kolaps vo rodeni.
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@BirthGauge
the 2020 cencus shows an average of 2.3m births in the Philippines but if we take the average from 2016-2020 we get 1.7m births per year meaning that around 35%+ of all births in the Philippines are not reported.
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@chandu4kalyann
@LaGazzettaEuro
@BirthGauge
doubt its probably mostly from balkan (kos,alb,srb,bos,mkd) maybe ukraine turkey and other places
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@ComteWasRight
@EurocentricTuga
Black births when we count all births including mixed are 21%+ nothing to celebrate.
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@MaximoMustero
@Aaronal16
Births are counted by the ethnicity of the mother.
There is more detailed data for births by ethnicity though you can find here -
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@BirthGauge
Macedonia
Births / Deaths = Natural increase
March 2023 - 1,279 / 1,833 = -660
March 2024 - 1,173 / 1,583 = -304
-106 (-8.3%) / -250 (-13.6%)
Q1 2023 - 3,656 / 5,233 = -1,577
Q1 2024 - 3,632 / 5,199 = -1,567
-24 (-0.7%) / -34 (-0,6%)
All data is preliminary
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@LisKastrioti
@JReputu4955
@masagget
@BirthGauge
Dagestan and Ingushetia also have a TFR above 2,1 Ingushetia maybe even bigger then Chechnya its just their population is overestimated so the TFR is underestimated.
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@DardanianGOD
@kos_data
Where exactly? Covid helped young Kosovo keep its births stable for a few years and even grow but now it seems the trend is slowly returning.
Other then the diaspora, Albanian births are declining.
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@BirthGauge
Macedonia
Births / Deaths = Natural increase
Oct 2022: 1,556 / 1,533 = +23
Oct 2021: 1,577 / 2,213 = -636
-21 (-1.3%) / 680 (-30.7%)
Jan-Oct 2022: 14,900 / 18,865 = - 3,965
Jan-Oct 2021: 15,142 / 23,843 = - 9,701
-242 (-1.6%) / -4,978 (-20.9%)
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@Aaronal16
Since 2017 births in Colombia have declined by -13.2% but biths to Colombian mothers have declined a lot more since Venezuelan mothern in 2017 made up 0% of births while in 2021 they made up 9.5%
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@nonebusinesshey
I think the TFR is a bit higher, their fertile pop is currently seeing huge generations leave and smaller ones join.
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@nonebusinesshey
@romainSG47205
@ausgov
@PewReligion
Indians in Australia or any other country outside India will most likely enter natural decline much later then when they are supposed to due to the constant stream of young migrants which will keep the death rate to a very low level even as the elderly population grows.
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