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Change of births in the Balkans by provinces in last 4 years compared to previous 4 years.
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It is interesting how quickly demographics can change.
Few years ago no one would believe that 🇧🇬 and 🇷🇸 will have higher TFR than 🇹🇷 in 2023.
Also ratio of birth between 🇬🇷 and 🇷🇸+RS was 1.49 in 2008 and 1.03 in last year (if we add 🇲🇪 to the last it changed from 1.36 to 0.94)
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TFR in municipalities of Netherlands in 2021.
Second map shows Orthodox Calvinist schools in 2012.
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TFR in Italy.
First map: average number of children from women born in 1940, 1950, 1960, 1970
Second map: TFR in Italy 2021 (darker color doesn't mean it is good but that is not that awful like in other parts)
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On last census in 🇦🇱 children 0-14 years are 15.57% of population while in 🇷🇸 they are 14.37%
In 2011 in 🇦🇱 they were 20.66% while in 🇷🇸 14.26%
When it comes to children 0-4 years old they % dropped in 🇦🇱 from 5.84% to 4.66% while in 🇷🇸 slightly grew from 4.57% to 4.68%
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% of 3rd and higher birth order among newborns in 🇷🇸 for period 2015-2018 and 2019-2022 (only among Serbian mothers, so this is without minorities).
This increase is probably main reason why TFR increased in this period and also why drop of births wasn't drastic.
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Result of SGP (Calvinist party) and right-wing combined on Dutch elections by municipalities.
Compared to map of TFR in 2021 we can see that lowest TFR in most cases is in municipalities where right-wing is weakest.
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Places with over 1.000 inhabitants on Census 1953 and 2022 in 🇷🇸
Result of massive emigration from villages after WW2 and low TFR in most of villages (below replacement rate).
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In the period 2020-23 there were 48,068 births of 3rd or next children by birth order in 🇷🇸 (9.51% more than in 2016-2019 when there were 43,893 such births).
Here is total number for these periods for municipalities and also their % in total births which is represented by color
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TFR in 🇷🇸 2023 by municipalities according to Statistical office. I added explanations for some possible inaccuracies.
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Croatia - Census 2021
Average number of children. There is not much change in number of kids for women who already have kids but there is increase of childlessness with lower total average.
Among women born in 1940's childlessness was 7.8%, and among women born 1970's is 16.9%
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On 1 women 30-34 years old there were 1.35 children 0-4 years old in 🇷🇸 on Census 2011.
On Census 2022 that ratio was 1.57
Here is how it looks by municipalities in 2011 and 2022.
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TFR of some municipalities in 🇳🇱
First part of table are municipalities with significant Calvinist (SGP party won >10% on last elections), and second part are biggest cities in Netherlands.
At the bottom there is explanation what % next to name of municipality means.
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Demographics of Denmark 2022 in maps. Source is Statistics Denmark.
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Here is table that compares TFR with election results.
First group places where right-wing won >50%.
Second group places where right-wing won <20% and strongest party is centre-left/left-wing. Where VVD was strongest are not included
Result of SGP (Calvinist party) and right-wing combined on Dutch elections by municipalities.
Compared to map of TFR in 2021 we can see that lowest TFR in most cases is in municipalities where right-wing is weakest.
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Immigrant population in 🇷🇸: 2022 - 2023
🇷🇺 22,351 - 41,644
🇨🇳 11,993 - 12,157
🇹🇷 6,174 - 6,099
🇮🇳 1,847 - 3,431
🇲🇰 1,130 - 1,099
Data are from Ministry of Interior.
There were 22,981 newly admitted citizens in 2023. Almost all from neighbouring countries, rest from 🇪🇺🇦🇺🇺🇲🇷🇺🇨🇦
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Top 10 most registered baby names in 2022 in Serbia 🇷🇸
♂️ Luka, Lazar, Vasilije, Bogdan, Vuk, Stefan, Aleksa, Vukan, Mihajlo, Pavle
♀️ Sofija, Dunja, Mila, Teodora, Sara, Una, Nađa, Milica, Helena, Maša
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Average number of children to women 40-49 years old by ethnicity of mother on Census 2022 in Serbia.
For whole country there are all ethnicities which have data and for regions only those ethnicities with over 500 women in age group 40-49.
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It is preliminary data but I made change of population in Kosovo between Census 2011 and 2024 by municipalities.
Growth only in Priština and its surroundings (small growth in Uroševac and Mamuša). Also Serbian municipalities, but it is because of boycott in 2011.
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@BirthGauge
Federation BiH: livebirths
Jan-Mar 2023: 3,455
Jan-Mar 2024: 3,264 (-5.53%)
Republika Srpska: livebirths
Jan-Mar 2023: 1,986
Jan-Mar 2024: 2,067 (+4.08%)
FBih vs RS - ratio of births
Jan-Mar 2023: 1.74
Jan-Mar 2024: 1.58
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On 1 women 30-34 years old there are 1.51 children 0-4 years old in 🇦🇱 on Census 2023
Situation is better in northern part and NE is quite good but doesn't help much since emigration from there is huge.
I did same this for 🇷🇸 earlier and probably will do for some other countries.
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TFR of states in USA and average margin of victory on last 3 elections.
States in which Republican candidates won by biggest margin have highest TFR and states in which Democrat candidates won by biggest margin have lowest TFR with some exceptions.
Similar pattern to Netherlands
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Something different from demography.
Strongest party by constituency in Germany on elections 2021 vs today projection (Wahlkreisprognose)
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TFR in some of these municipalities in last few years, compared to Netherlands national TFR.
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% of population that immigrated to 🇷🇸 from ex-Yu countries (left map) and from other countries (right map) according Census 2022.
From other countries are counted also returnees from W. Europe. That is reason why eastern Serbia is so high (many of them are probably pensioners).
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Не видим неки смисао увођења мера за 5 и 6 дете. Боље је додатно побољшати мере за 2 и 3 с обзиром да је већи потенцијал у смањењу броја породица са једним дететом него у повећању оних са 5+
Породице са 5+ деце полако постају реткост и у Африци.
Наравно, ово је само моје мишљење.
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Average no. of children ever born to women aged 50-54, 45-49 and 40-44 in Russia on Census 2021
Women 40-44 have highest average so in general there is improvement despite still being bad. For women 35-39 is 1.61 so they can be higher than 40-44
Urban areas much worse than rural
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Approximate TFR by municipalities of Serbia (2021). I used data from vital statistics and made some corrections based on Census 2022 (big cities have overestimated births in vital statistics).
Some municipalities have few births so their TFR can vary lot from year to year.
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Births in municipalities of BiH by ethnicity of mother (unknowns and undeclared are excluded, although wouldn't make much difference).
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Number of people declared as Atheists in 🇷🇸 fallen from 80,053 to 74,139 between Census 2011 and 2022.
However their % among those who declared religion slightly increase from 1.17% to 1.21%.
Here is % of Atheists in municipalities in 2022 (among those who declared religion)
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TFR in 🇷🇸 increased from 1.4 to 1.6 in last 15 years. It is mostly driven by stronger increase in small places.
Do you think that increase of trust in Church among youth has anything with that since more religious socities tend to have more children or it doesn't matter here?
Youth in Serbia - trust in institutions (rating from 1 to 5): 2018 - 2023
Army: 2.8 - 2.8
Church: 2.1 - 2.7
Police: 2.3 - 1.74
Media: 1.6 - 1.53
President: 1.6 - 1.48
Government: 1.7 - 1.43
Parliament: 1.7 - 1.41
Political parties: 1.5 - 1.32
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In most places in Serbia families with 3+ children are now more common than 40 years ago. Exception are places which then had high proportion of large families.
On the other side this is pretty much annuled by rise of childlessnes.
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Some historical data. Total fertility rate (TFR) in Kingdom of Serbia calculated from Census 1890 data by age and sex was 5.63. Here are data by administrative divisions.
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@BirthGauge
🇷🇸 final data for 2023 shows 61,052 births (-2.63% vs 2022) and TFR 1.61
Births by ethnicity (vs 2022 %)
🇷🇸50,804 (-1.99)
☸️3,097 (-3.07)
🇧🇦2,121 (-6.81)
🇭🇺1,200 (-12.79)
🇦🇱523 (-19.79)
☪️420 (-18.45)
🇸🇰335 (+6.69)
🇭🇷222 (-5.53)
🇷🇺172 (+126.32)
🇷🇴155 (+8.39)
Other: 632 (+3.43)
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Youth in Serbia - trust in institutions (rating from 1 to 5): 2018 - 2023
Army: 2.8 - 2.8
Church: 2.1 - 2.7
Police: 2.3 - 1.74
Media: 1.6 - 1.53
President: 1.6 - 1.48
Government: 1.7 - 1.43
Parliament: 1.7 - 1.41
Political parties: 1.5 - 1.32
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@BirthGauge
According this Turkey had 1,047,975 births in 2021 (1,112,859 was in 2020 which is drop of 5,83%).
TFR from 1,76 to 1,66
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TFR in 2022 in Serbia.
First value is official estimate, while value is bracket is value if we correct differences among children on Census vs vital stat.
Due administrative errors small cities are underestimated in vital stat. so second value is probably closer to real situation
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TFR by municipalities in Serbia with correction from Census data.
Some small municipalities can vary lot from year to year because 10-20 births changes a lot, but this is what we have for 2022.
Yellow is about national average, more red is worse, and more green is better.
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Based on natural growth and change of population I counted migration saldo per year between Censuses for Balkans, Baltics and C. Europe in ‰
🇪🇪+4.4
🇸🇮+3
🇭🇺+1.2
🇨🇿+1.2
🇸🇰+0.8
🇲🇪+0.7*
🇬🇷-0.1
🇵🇱-0.2
🇷🇸-1.5
🇷🇴-2
🇱🇹-3.4
🇱🇻-4.1
🇧🇬-4.7
🇲🇰-5.9
🇭🇷-6
🇽🇰-14.6*
🇦🇱-15.3
*preliminary data
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🇲🇪 again has more 1st grade pupils than birts in that generation.
Northern region obviously has high emigration, mostly to the coast, capital of Podgorica and probably 🇷🇸
Coastal region has high immigration, probably there also lot of 🇷🇺 and 🇺🇦
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TFR in urban areas of Serbia is low but growing and better than most of Europe and that is probably the main reason why Serbian TFR is rising.
Rural TFR should be better, especially in few districts. Some villages are showing that TFR over 2 is achievable.
Last one for vital statistics of Serbia in 2022. TFR by urban and rural places for districts (again corrected by Census data).
Villages in eastern Serbia still have pretty low TFR, problem that last for almost a century.
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Last post in this year.
Population of Serbia at the end of 19th century and beginning of 20th (in borders before Balkan wars).
WW1 was devastating for its population and it is pretty safe to say that population without WW1 would be about 30% higher in 1921 than it was.
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% тзв. грађанске и националне опозиције на изборима 2022 по општинама. У ,,грађанску'' сам рачунао УЗС, Морамо и СДС, а у ,,националну'' НАДУ, Двери, Заветнике и ДЈБ.
ЗЗВ нисам ставио код првих јер су били мањинска листа, а СРС код других зато што нема никакве сарадње међу њима.
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@BirthGauge
Serbia: livebirths
Jan-Apr 2023: 19,230
Jan-Apr 2024: 19,372 (+0.74%)
April 2023: 4,304
April 2024: 4,849 (+12.66%)
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@BirthGauge
Final birth data for 2022 (vs 2021)
Bosnia and Herzegovina: 26,516 (-1.77%)
Bosniaks: 13,831 (-2.28%)
Serbs: 8,721 (-1.90%)
Croats: 2,678 (-3.84%)
Others, undeclared and unknown: 1,286 (+10.39%)
Here is last 10 years for country, entities and Distrikt Brčko.
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I've analyzed births in last decade in Dutch municipalities where conservative Calvinist party (SGP) won more than 5% in last elections. Those municipalities mostly have better performance than country most probably because of Calvinists.
It's detailed, summarized in last table
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Average birth order in BiH 2022
Federation BiH: 1.82
USK: 1.85
PK*: 1.80
TK: 1.71
ZDK: 1.83
BPK: 2.02
SBK**: 1.93
HNK**: 1.93
ZHK*: 2.05
KS: 1.73
K10*: 2.14
*Croat majority canton
**Mixed canton
Rest are Bosniak majority
Republika Srpska: 1.81
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Last one for vital statistics of Serbia in 2022. TFR by urban and rural places for districts (again corrected by Census data).
Villages in eastern Serbia still have pretty low TFR, problem that last for almost a century.
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@BirthGauge
Republika Srpska: livebirths (prel.)
Jan-Sep 2022: 6,238
Jan-Sep 2023: 6,330 (+1.88%)
Jul-Sep 2022: 2,318
Jul-Jun 2023: 2,348 (+1.29%)
In fin. data there are 8-9% more births. Probably in prl. they don't count births from RS occured in maternity hospitals in Serbia
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Children under 14 years old in Serbia by settlements on Census 2022.
Another picture is relief map of Serbia which shows that far worst situation is mostly in remote mountain villages of SE Serbia which doesn't have any youth. Their colapse started in 1960's with mass emigration
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Most common names of babies born in 2023 🇷🇸
♂️ Luka, Vasilije, Lazar, Bogdan, Vuk, Vukan, Stefan, Aleksa, Mihajlo, Dušan
♀️ Sofija, Dunja, Mila, Teodora, Maša, Sara, Nađa, Milica, Tara, Lenka
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@BirthGauge
Republika Srpska: livebirths (final)
2022: 9,118
2023: 9,309 (+2.10%)
Share of 3rd children grew from 14.4% to 14.9% and 4th+ from 4.6% to 5.6%
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@BirthGauge
Republika Srpska: livebirths (preliminary)
2022: 8,381
2023: 8,457 (+0.91%)
Oct-Dec 2022: 2,143
Oct-Dec 2023: 2,127 (-0.75%)
Republika Srpska had 9,118 births in final data 2022. For last year final data will be published on 25th april.
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Republika Srpska had 9,118 births in 2022 (-1.68% vs 2021)
Births by ethnicity of mother (vs 2021)
Serbs: 8,260 (-1.69%)
Bosniaks: 470 (-6.19%)
Croats: 62 (-32.61%)
Others: 71 (+20.34%)
Undeclared and unknown: 255 (+15.91%)
Here you can find data
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@BirthGauge
Serbia - final data for 2022 shows 62,700 births (+0.84% vs 2021) and TFR 1.64
Births by ethnicity (vs 2021)
Serbs: 51,840 (+534)
Romani: 3,195 (+21)
Bosniaks: 2,276 (+264)
Hungarians: 1,376 (-146)
Albanians: 652 (+11)
Muslims: 515 (-22)
Slovaks: 314 (-70)
Croats: 235 (-23)
...
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Interethnic marriages in 1990 and 2021 (undeclared and unknowns are excluded here, although wouldn't change much).
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One table that showing how villages in Zaječar district (eastern Serbia) are dying out much faster than in other parts of Serbia. Drop of youth is crazy😲
At the end of 19th century these villages were among larger in country. Youth from Census 1890 largely died during WW1...
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Children in rural areas of 🇷🇸🇲🇰🇧🇬 on last Censuses.
Also we can see trend in last 10 years (0-4 vs 5-9 years old).
🇷🇸🇧🇬 has green areas (increase of children in rural areas), although 🇷🇸 obviously have more children on villages (except eastern part where is also worst trend).
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@BirthGauge
Livebirths - City of Belgrade Residence of mother in Belgrade
Jan-Jul 2023: 9,643
Jan-Jul 2024: 9,686 (+0.45%)
July 2023: 1,479
July 2024: 1,596 (+7.91%)
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Final data of Serbian Census 2022 show 6.647.003 inhabitants. Here are data for ethnicity which are only released for now.
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@BirthGauge
Montenegro: livebirths
Jan-May 2022: 2,670
Jan-May 2023: 2,791 (+4.53%)
May 2022: 522
May 2023: 594 (+13.79%)
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@BirthGauge
Federation BiH: livebirths (prel.)
Jan-Sep 2022: 11,624
Jan-Sep 2023: 11,418 (-1.77%)
Sep 2022: 1,564
Sep 2023: 1,406 (-10.10%)
Birth ratio FBiH vs Rep. Srpska: Jan-Sep
2017: 2.08
2018: 2.02
2019: 1.94
2020: 1.92
2021: 1.93
2022: 1.86
2023: 1.80
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Some historical data before new results of Serbian census which will be released in two days.
Approximate TFR in Yugoslavia in 1936 (and vital index 1936-1939) and 1971.
There are not detailed data for births so exact TFR cannot be counted but approximate can.
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% of ethnicities by Serbian oblasts in last 3 censuses. Undeclared und unknown are excluded from this analysis.
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In 2023/24 there were 27,783 pupils in 1st grade in 🇧🇦 (7.58% less than births in 2017).
Drop in Federation BiH was 8.65%, in Republika Srpska 3.28% and in Brčko district 28.73 (due bad birth data here).
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@BirthGauge
Croatia: livebirths
Jan-Mar 2023: 8,124
Jan-Mar 2024: 7,934 (-2.34%)
March 2023: 2,771
March 2024: 2,518 (-9.13%)
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In 2022/23 there were 381 more pupils in 1st grade than there was births in 2016 in Montenegro.
Visible migration from north to coast. Some places on coast has huge growth of pupils vs births, my guess because of Russian and Ukrainian kids. Difference was lower in earlier years.
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@BirthGauge
Serbia: livebirths
Jan-Aug 2022: 40,244
Jan-Aug 2023: 40,376 (+0.33%)
Aug 2022: 5,855
Aug 2023: 5,891 (+0.62%)
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First grade pupils in 2023/24 vs births in generation that started school according vital statistics in Serbia.
We can see that Belgrade is overrated in vital statistics while some districts are underrated.
Also pretty large difference in municipalities with minority population.
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@BirthGauge
Republika Srpska: livebirths (prel.)
Jan-Jun 2022: 3,920
Jan-Jun 2023: 3,982 (+1.58%)
Apr-Jun 2022: 1,930
Apr-Jun 2023: 1,996 (+3.42%)
In final data there are 8-9% more births. I guess that in prel. they don't count births from RS occured in maternity hospitals in Serbia.
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Медији пишу како је све мање студената на државним факултетима. Спомињу пуно разлога за то, али изостављају можда и главни, демографију.
Генерације које сада уписују факултет су доста малобројније, а број места на факултетима је остао исти.
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Here is detailed average birth order by municipality for Serbia in 2017-2019 and 2020-2022
Distribution of births by birth order (whether it is a first, second, etc. birth) by countries in 2021 (or 2020 or 2019, depending on what the most recent figures are). There are some interesting patterns that plain TFR numbers aren't showing.
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@BirthGauge
>66% Orthodox places
Jan-Sep 2022: 3,645
Jan-Sep 2023: 3,839 (+5.32%)
Mixed places
Jan-Sep 2022: 809
Jan-Sep 2023: 795 (-1.73%)
>66% Bosniak places
Jan-Sep 2022: 372
Jan-Sep 2023: 328 (-11.83%)
>66% Albanian places
Jan-Sep 2022: 299
Jan-Sep 2023: 284 (-5.02%)
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Serbia - Census 2022
Occupied dwellings by occupancy status
Ownership: 87.3%
Rent: 6.3%
Relatives: 6.0%
Other and unknown 0.3%
% of houses/apartments under the rent by municipality in the map
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First map show average number of children from women born in different decades and second map show average number only for women who gave birth.
For women born in 1970's there will be small change since women from 40-44 still have children.
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Промена броја бирача на дан 23.10.2023. у односу на прошлогодишње изборе.
На основу демографских параметара једино реални раст могу имати већински бошњачке општине, НС и поједине општине Београда.
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@BirthGauge
Livebirths - City of Belgrade
Residence of mother in Belgrade
Jan 2023: 1,468
Jan 2024: 1,516 (+3.3%)
Residence of mother outside of Belgrade but gave birth in maternity hospital in Belgrade
Jan 2023: 272
Jan 2024: 304 (+11.8%)
Data for whole 🇷🇸 will be published on Monday
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Како је изгледала интеграција досељеника у другој половини 19. века у Србији.
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Ratio 0-14 vs 15-29 years old in Serbia
2002 - 2011 - 2022
Serbs: 0.76 - 0.74 - 0.89
Hungarians: 0.74 - 0.72 - 0.85
Bosniaks: 1.00 - 1.05 - 1.03
Romani: 1.21 - 1.29 - 1.17
Albanians: 1.27 - / - 0.72
Slovaks: 0.80 - 0.77 - 0.83
Croats: 0.70 - 0.62 - 0.77
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@BirthGauge
Serbia: livebirths (preliminary)
Jan-Feb 2023: 10,083
Jan-Feb 2024: 10,088 (+0.05%)
Feb 2023: 4,682
Feb 2024: 4,777 (+2.03%)
Since Feb 2024 had one more day it is actually drop of 1.48% on daily basis.
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@BirthGauge
>80% Orthodox municipalities have increase of 6% of births (similar with mixed municipalities) while majority Muslim municipalities have drop of 7% births in first five months.
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Average birth order of Roma mothers compared to total average birth order in districts of Serbia for two periods.
Roma mothers have quite more children on average but we can see that in most districts their average is decreasing while in total we see increase.
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@BirthGauge
Montenegro: livebirths
Jan-Sep 2022: 5,125
Jan-Sep 2023: 5,246 (+2.36%)
Sep 2022: 586
Sep 2023: 565 (-3.58%)
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Average no. of born children to women 50-54, 45-49 and 40-44 years old in 🇨🇿
Contrary to 🇷🇺 average has decreased among 40-44 vs 50-54 but still is higher (among 50-54 it was 0.3 higher and among 40-44 is 0.1 higher)
Quite low childlessness rate among these generations in 🇨🇿
2
2
20
If ethnic composition in municipalities stayed same it would be 53.86% Bosniak, 31.49% Serbian, 10.60% Croat and 4.05% other pupils.
Bosniaks were 55.87% among newborn in 2017, Serbs 30.22%, Croats 9.71%.
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0
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@BirthGauge
Montenegro: livebirths
Jan-Aug 2022: 4,518
Jan-Aug 2023: 4,670 (+3.36%)
Aug 2022: 626
Aug 2023: 612 (-2.24%)
0
0
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@MoreBirths
In 🇲🇪 68% of young adults 25-34 years old lives with parents and TFR will be >1.8 this year while in 🇫🇮 4% of young adults 25-34 years old lives with parents and TFR will be <1.3 this year so obviosly it is not same in different cultures.
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1
18
Estimated TFR of >85% Serbian villages in KiM on censuses 1971 and 1991 (only villages south of Ibar river and with >500 inhabitants at that time).
Serbs in KiM had solid TFR which was pretty much higher than among Serbs in other parts of ex-Yu.
0
0
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@BirthGauge
Montenegro: livebirths (preliminary)
2022: 7,008
2023: 7,002 (-0.09%)
Dec 2022: 646
Dec 2023: 557 (-13.78%)
1
0
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@Nassreddin2002
According Ipsos it is different
18-24 years old
🔴 Left-wing NFP: 48%
⚫️ RN + allies: 33%
🟠 Macron’s ENS: 9%
🔵 LR: 4%
25-34 years old
🔴 Left-wing NFP: 38%
⚫️ RN + allies: 32%
🟠 Macron’s ENS: 13%
🔵 LR: 8%
0
2
17
% of births in 🇩🇰 by origin of mother in last 15 years. Origin of mother is divided by this UN geographical regions.
Among mothers of foreign origins are both those who are immigrants and those who are descendants of immigrants.
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17
@BirthGauge
Serbia: livebirths
Jan-Mar 2023: 14,926
Jan-Mar 2024: 14,523 (-2.70%)
March 2023: 4,843
March 2024: 4,435 (-8.42%)
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0
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@BirthGauge
Serbia: livebirths
Jan-Jun 2022: 29,334
Jan-Jun 2023: 29,203 (-0.45%)
June 2022: 5,163
June 2023: 5,003 (-3.10%)
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0
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@BirthGauge
Serbia: livebirths
Jan-Oct 2022: 51,401
Jan-Oct 2023: 50,964 (-0.85%)
Oct 2022: 5,462
Oct 2023: 5,413 (-0.90%)
0
0
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