Demographics Now & Then
@Aaronal16
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Proud American.Covers demographic trends,geopolitical topics & future projections+great power dynamics. Supporter of family,faith & future for our civilization.
Joined August 2020
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Pinned Tweet
Culture is the most substantive battlefield for any nation. The cultural battlefield is the one on which identity is maintained or lost.
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@JuliaDavisNews
@oryxspioenkop
Honestly Russia is in a terrible spot. They are in real existential danger of their own making. The world will take further and further actions against Russia as it is now viewed as weak. The only way for them to change the situation is to do something unprecedented.
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Canada immigration targets are unsustainably massive. They have set a goal of 400,000 immigrants a year. That’s 1% of their national population a year every year. All this while Canada faces a housing shortage just trying to accommodate their existing people.
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@Arslon_Xudosi
@oryxspioenkop
Seeing the products of the Turkish defense industry in action during the war in Karabakh in 2020 and in Ukraine in 2022 really made me respect the quality and effectiveness of their products. It really appears Turkey had built a top tier defense industry.
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Last year Germany had only 795,517 births. That is just a little more than half of the total births it had in 1871, the year of Germany Unification, when 1,414,248 Germans were born and the population was only 41M.
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In this article the General Secretary of India’s ruling BJP said the party saw the role of the international Indian Diaspora being akin to “the way the Jewish community looks out for Israel's interests in the United States.”.
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@DeskPopper909
@nowthisnews
I have not seen any evidence that he was doing anything wrong or suspicious when he was attacked and killed. But the fact you had to throw that out there says a lot about you. These three broke the law and that’s all there is to it.
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@CNN
The US would be making a mistake of epic proportions if we forced India to pick a side. They prize their independence and nonalignment and are a pivotal counterbalancing power to China in Asia. This is not a relationship we should risk damaging.
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The demographic fall in Latam is almost unreal. Ecuador now has a lower TFR than the United States.
In 2023, Ecuador recorded 238,772 births, 4.6% fewer than in 2022. The TFR declined to 1.60 kids per woman, a bit lower than neighboring Peru, but higher than Colombia.
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@cjp077
@JackPosobiec
That’s Nursultan Nazarbayev. He was president of Kazakhstan at the time and was meeting with Donald Trump who was president of the United States. How does this show anything but that?
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Almost all of these projections fail to take into account falling African and Middle Eastern fertility rates. As a consequence they are almost all wrong. Populations of African and Middle Eastern countries will likely be much smaller than projected here by 2100.
Population in 2100, as projected by UN Population Division.
🇮🇳 India: 1,533 million
🇨🇳 China: 771 million
🇳🇬 Nigeria: 546 million
🇵🇰 Pakistan: 487 million
🇨🇩 Congo: 431 million
🇺🇸 US: 394 million
🇪🇹 Ethiopia: 323 million
🇮🇩 Indonesia: 297 million
🇹🇿 Tanzania: 244 million
🇪🇬
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The Brothers of Italy should look into a program to incentivize larger scale immigration of ethnic Italians from Brazil and Argentina to Italy. If the incentives were done right this could bring 1,000,000 or more ethnic Italians back to Italy by 2050.
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@RALee85
The capture of the pilot is likely of equal or even greater consequence as it takes years and year to train a pilot and Russia has now lost around a dozen SU-30, SU-34 and SU-35 pilots KIA or POW during this conflict.
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Births in Greece from January-October 2022 have fallen 14.2% year on year. This looks like the largest year on year decline across the EU in 2022. Greek TFR looks set to be far below 1.3 this year & is rapidly converging on Italian & Spanish levels with obvious consequences.
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Italy looks set to have fewer than 400,000 births for the first time since unification in 1861. While births did not see a dramatic decline in 2022 (likely only falling by 2-4%) it is yet another milestone in a continual decline since 1965 when Italy recorded 1,017,944 births.
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Albania has both a low TFR and a high emigration rate. The population may fall below 2M by 2050 in the most extreme scenarios. Their population structure is also headed in the wrong direction. Around a quarter of the population will be above age 65 by 2050.
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There’s a myth of high Muslim TFR in Russia & particularly in the Kavkaz area. As this map shows,Chechnya (population only~1.5M)is the only one with high TFR+the only one above replacement.Even Ingushetia+Dagestan are far below. Biggest Muslims groups (Tatar+Bashkirs) much lower.
Map illustrating the total fertility rate in the Caucasus region.
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Thailand has become old before it got rich. Sri Lanka will be aged by 2028. India & the Philippines may come soon after. Indonesia as well as the remainder of developing Asia are likely to follow. Welcome to the future we have been warning you about:
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Reminder that Kazakhstan went from 82.9% ethnic Kazakh in 1897 to just 30% in 1959. At independence in 1991 only 38% of the country was ethnic Kazakh. By 2009 63% of Kazakhstan’s population was ethnic Kazakh & by 2023 70% were.
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African American TFR worse at a national level than American Whites or Hispanics (even though TFR at roughly the same level as Non Hispanic Whites). The majority of the ten counties with the highest black TFRs are below replacement. No truly high TFR African American groups.
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Unlike India we only need to feed 336 million and can export A LoT of food. US is incredibly blessed. In croplands, natural resources, population size (particularly young population size),& geography which protects us from foes. Yet our policymakers squander these advantages.
"This map shows U.S. croplands ... derived primarily with Landsat imagery for the year 2015. The United States has 166 million hectares of net cropland area and is ranked second in the world after India, which has 180 million hectares."
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Well Charlie Munger may have been right short and medium term but was decisively wrong long term. Such a culture kills birth rates and does so incredibly efficiently. South Korea (& Japan & Taiwan & Singapore) already ruing their work till you drop, work über alles culture.
Charlie Munger:
Don’t be surprised when you lose to people like this
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The capital of Mozambique is already at replacement level TFR. This is happening to all of sub Saharan Africa. The continent will be at or below replacement by 2060.
NEW
#Mozambique
DHS 2022-2023
TFR dropped at 4.9. It was 5.9 in 2011 and the decrease was registered for both urban and rural areas. Northern regions have higher fertility than southern ones.
In the capital Maputo TFR is already at replacement level!
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@disclosetv
Lindsey Graham. No kids. No regards for anything beyond his own remaining lifetime.
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Ghana TFR probably~3.5. It was~5.0 in 2000,~4.0 in 2015 &~3.75 in 2018. By 2030 it will be ~2.75 at this rate & replacement before 2040 if smartphone proliferation+education improvement trends continue. Well ahead of all forecasts. Anyone saying Africa immune was foolish.
Ghana reports 663,223 registered births for 2023, which when adjusted for a registration rate of "over 70 percent" implies total 2023 births of no more than 950,000.
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We are seeing huge declines in the fertility rates of non Western immigrants across Europe. From France to the Netherlands to Denmark. This is the norm. In 2022 non Western immigrant TFR in Denmark was just 1.39 compared to 1.56 for Danes.
Denmark's TFR (~children per woman) declined to 1.50 in 2023, down from 1.55 in 2022.
2023 TFR by ancestry (2022 in brackets):
Danish: 1.56 (1.61)
Western immigrant: 1.18 (1.22)
Western descendant: 1.42 (1.42)
Non-W. immigrant: 1.39 (1.52)
Non-W. descendant: 1.60 (1.57)
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@extradeadjcb
Destroying traditional culture & replacing it with consumerism & materialism directly led to a rise is such instances. My wife and I started having kids well before achieving financial stability.Many chided us for having kids while we were still in university but we are fine now.
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@bernieshq
Kadyrov announced on his social media that Chechen forces will withdrawal following losses. Will look for active link.
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@YoussefSaab20
@AP
That’s not true, we managed to spend $2.5 trillion against the non-existential threat in Iraq and Afghanistan while completely ignoring existential threats from Russia and China. That is something. W was the worst President…
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Urban East Asia crushes fertility like no other. The wrong kind of high density. Instead of low rise garden style with a good work life balance it is often huge 50+ unit buildings coupled with an aggressive 60 plus hour workweek. It’s not a mystery why TFR is at historic lows.
South Korea's TFR (~children per woman) sunk to an ultra-low value of 0.72 in 2023, declining even further from 0.78 in 2022.
Lowest TFR in 2023:
Seoul: 0.55
Busan: 0.66
Incheon: 0.69
South Koreans are on the brink of extinction. TFR is literally heading towards 0.
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By 2050 the order of nations economically, demographically and politically will be profoundly different and have gigantic implications: 1.) 3 of 7 current G7 countries will be economically stagnating and rapidly depopulating and the organization will be near irrelevant.
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@ndcarson
Central Asia (Uzbekistan is a regional breadbasket) could very well over perform under almost any scenario, Africa is anyone’s guess. Many SSA countries have more than enough fertile land to be fully self sufficient in food but have neglected to develop it.
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This would be similar to the United States setting a goal of 3.3M immigrants a year. I simply don’t see how a country can assimilate and integrate that many new immigrants a year without serious economic, political and social problems. Maybe someone can enlighten me…
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In Japan the average age of business owners has risen to ~62 & approximately 60% of businesses have no succession plan & some owners are thus giving away their businesses & land for free.
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According to estimates from the Tokyo-based National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, between 31.6% & 39.2% of Japanese women born in 2000 will remain childless throughout their life. That is up from 27% for women born in 1970:
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@StatisticUrban
Honestly you can live quite decently in Italy or Spain on $35,000 annually. In most of the US today in 2024 you are struggling at $60,000 or less a year & near the poverty line @ $35K. In Massachusetts you may even struggle with $90,000 a year. Try buying a house or decent car.
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This is why the UN and many many heads of state are not interested in the crisis of falling birth rates. They wrongly think mass migration is a sustainable solution. It is not. Good thread BTW.
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Vietnam’s current demographics (especially compared to neighbors at similar levels of development) are excellent. TFR is well above 2.0 (and increased between 2020 and 2021) and the country enjoys more than 1.5M births a year (almost double Japan’s total).
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Egypt on track to have a TFR of less than 2.5 for the 1st time in history. TFR was 3.5 as recently as 2014 & 3.0 in 2018. Egypt is likely to fall below replacement TFR before 2030 as urban and secular couples see TFR plummet just as religious couples also have smaller families.
Egypt
The Egyptian government reports a drop in first quarter births.
2023: 509.5
2024: 491.8
If maintained, that implies a drop in TFR from 2.58 in 2023 to ~2.49 in 2024.
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Albania has an absolutely terrible 2022 demographically with a record low of
23,575 births. Albania has 10,000 more births in 1934 when its population was only 1M. TFR likely fell to an official level of ~1.2 but when adjusting for population overcounting real likely TFR of 1.4.
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Absolutely massive -16.66% decline in January 2023 births in Taiwan. As a reminder Taiwan had a TFR of only 0.89 in 2022 so they’re really having a go at displacing South Korea for world worst fertility rate crown. Births typically lower in the year preceding the Dragon Year.
@BirthGauge
Taiwan
January 2022
Births 13,137
Deaths 15,954
Marriages 11,189
Natural increase -2,817
January 2023
Births 10,948 (-16.66%)
Deaths 17,770 (+11.38%)
Marriages 10,414 (-6.93%)
Natural increase -6,822
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There is a huge problem with the political polarization of fertility in the United States+other western countries. TFR has plummeted so far recently in Poland, the UK, Spain & many other countries due at least in part due to a cultural & political disconnect.
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Significant+growing list of countries are signing immigration agreements with India. Australia,Israel,Portugal, Germany,Austria have all signed mobility+migration agreements with India. Greece just the latest. Elites have determined migration’s solution to demographic crisis.
Greece to soon sign mobility migration agreement with India
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Germany is highly likely to have seen fewer than 700,000 births in 2023. Their TFR will be sub 1.4. The lowest levels for over a decade despite Germany’s population growing due to largish levels of immigration. Germany turning Canadian with high immigration and very low TFR?
Germany 2023 full year births:
Milupa nutricia has published its list of hospital births in Germany in 2023.
The number of hospital births declined by 6.14% from 710,933 in 2022 down to 667,299 in 2023.
If the percentage of births occurring outside of hospitals remains
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South Korean births were below 250,000 in 2022 for the first time in modern history. Korea had more than twice as many births during the 1920s when their population was only 13M & four times as many births in the 1960s (~1M annually) when their population was 25-30M.
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@Kdenkss
I’ve been to Japan, enjoyed it, respected it but did not feel at any time that it was my country. I felt there were lessons America could learn from Japan but I never felt a sense of ownership but ran into a few Americans who seemed to. Very weird.
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Mass emigration should be viewed as an equal demographic threat with low TFR. Emigration has basically destroyed Albania & Bosnia. Many countries (from Bulgaria to Romania to Moldova and beyond are sadly on a similar trajectory).
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Small countries that sign open migration agreements are sowing the seeds of their own demographic destruction. High emigration devastated many small Caribbean countries too. EU free movement agreements put Bulgaria on the ropes & will do the same with Moldova, N. Macedonia etc.
@HurryRainer
Wow. The USA signed open migration agreements with the Marshall Islands, Palau and Micronesia, each of which was followed by mass emigration and a collapse in fertility. Palau even had natural population decline in 2022:
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Lebanese TFR has long been collapsing. Doubt any major groups of citizens in the country (be they Shia, Christian, Sunni or Druze) have above replacement TFR anymore. Lebanon could have around half level of citizen TFR of Israel.
Number of births in lebanon:
2018: 92.9k
2019: 86.5k
2020: 74k
2021: 68.1k
2022: 62.8
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Bahia now has a lower TFR than the rich southern States of Brazil,like Santa Catarina, Paraná, & Rio Grande do Sul. The rich,urban,& heavily ethnic European South has stabilized demographically while the poorer more ethnically mixed Northeast sees its fertility fall like a rock.
The TFR of Brazil of 2023 was just published and turned out to be 1.57 kids per woman. The TFR of Brazil used to be the lowest among the major Latin American countries, but is now higher than Argentina, Colombia and Mexico.
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South Korea likely not exiting its demographic doom loop anytime soon. Surveys show only 34% of women consider marriage & having children “necessary in their lives” compared to 60% for men. In addition, divorces point to women rejecting patriarchal men.
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South Korea’s workforce is projected to shrink by almost 10 million by 2044. It will fall from 36.57M in 2023 to just 27.17M in 2044. South Korea will no longer be an economic powerhouse but their offshoring will provide opportunities for many.
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