Andrew Freedman, CFA 🦅
@HedgeyeComm
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Comms Sector Head @Hedgeye (Internet, Media & Cable/Telco) Also Software with @HedgeyeTech @HedgeyeSoftware For research, click the website link below!
NOT Investment Advice
Joined December 2018
Best Uber story yet!!! 5-min ago. On my way to the airport. Noticed my driver nervously looking at his phone. Turns out he is looking at stock prices. I ask him if he could please pay attention to driving. He then asks if he could pull over. I ask why. To sell stocks!.
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Lol "just get half of Gmail users to switch".
Ran some numbers on this. Gmail apparently has 1.8 billion users. If Elon launches XMail as part of the Basic $3/mo subscription and gets just half of Gmail users to switch over that’s $2.7 BILLION A MONTH in new revenues for X. Wow!.
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If you told me last week that $GOOGL would be down 9% on earnings, $MFST -8% and $META -19%, and $SPY would be up I would have thought you were crazy. Are we setting up for the biggest rug pull of the year? Just as everyone getting sucked back in long for a "technical" rally?.
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How is this for a wall of worry? Absent fresh stimulus, gravity takes over in Q3 as:. 1) Unemployment Insurance Expires. 2) Rent/mortgage Forbearance Ends. 3) $1,200 Checks Spent. 3) Election Uncertainty . 4) China Tensions. 5) Unemployment Rate 20%. What else am I missing? $SPY.
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Hillarious if we wake up tomorrow and futures up 1%.
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Incredibly excited to introduce Cole Freedman to the world!. aka Baby Freebird 🦅. Mom is doing great!
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7% Terminal Rate.6% 10-Year Treasury.9% 30-Year Mortgage.28% Corp Tax Rate.40% Cap Gains. 🚀🚀🚀.
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New investment process:. Has the company filed for Chapter 11?. Yes. Best Idea Long.
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I may just renounce my CFA. Renewal coming up in July.
Buying NVIDIA shares today costs you 40 times historical annual revenues. That's 40 years to get your money back, assuming $0 cost, 0% tax and a 100% payout ratio. Good luck!
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Here is a brief history of the 2007-2008 economic crisis and the timing of government intervention programs. The "Financial stability and recovery act" was signed on Feb. 17, 2009. The $SPY bottomed 18-days and ~15% later on Mar. 6, 2009.
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Be right back. I have to adjust all my company models and take my 2023 revenue and EPS estimates up because Core CPI came in at 6.3% vs 6.5% expected.
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COMING SOON:. Communications Pro @Hedgeye . Internet. Media. Telecom. $NFLX $ROKU $DIS $TWTR $PINS $TTD $FB $GOOGL $SNAP $TMUS $T $CMCSA $CHTR $ATUS $LYV. Use the link below to sign-up and be among the first notified when the service goes live!. 👆👆👆
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Tired of seeing so many charts on Twitter comparing the absolute number of #COVID19 cases by country, without any consideration for population size. So. here you go:. U.S. ~135k cases = ~0.04% of population.Italy 98k cases = ~0.16% of population
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Buddy of mine opened up his first brokerage account in April on Webull, is up about 120% and I am pretty sure thinks he is an investing God. He told me (with confidence) he was buying more shares of $TSLA since the stock-split news because. Wait for it. "It is free money".
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How this guy isn't in jail and going right back at it is INSANE. That judge ruling in Texas dismissing @SECGov case basically declared open season for stock manipulation and fraud. Everything you were told not to do legally and ethically in this industry has been turned on its.
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My favorite part of the $SNAP release is they announced a $500M share repurchase. but the company has deeply negative free cash flow and EBITDA if you include SBC. They have been funding the deficit through SBC and convertible issuances. .
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'Twas the night before $NFLX. When all over the street, analysts updating models - wondering, will they beat?. The alt data collected & scrubbed with care, in hopes that alpha will be there. The bears nestled, snug in their beds, with visions of sub losses swirling in their heads.
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The funny thing is. for all of you hating on $META right now. It is probably the better long from here relative to $GOOGL.
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Love it. Stock misses revenue by 5% and it is down 30% so of course it is an overreaction. But when it beats by 5% and up 30% on pure multiple expansion it is justified!.
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"So, of course we only accept #bitcoin and other cryptocurrency cause, you know, it's the future. We've all decided centralized banking is rigged, so we trust more in fly-by-night Ponzi schemes.". 😆😆😆
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We are saying goodbye to $ROKU this morning - still believe in the long-term opportunity, but risk/reward is less attractive with the stock up 350% in 6-months and many of our positive catalysts (e.g., HBO Max and Peacock) have played out.
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Markets go up and they go down. But I will always be a #permabull on family and this little guy.
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At a restaurant. sitting next to a table of millenials talking about buying stocks on robinhood. There is NO escape!.
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TCI Letter to $GOOGL. "In a new era of slower revenue growth, aggressive cost management is essential.".
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Maybe it is just me. but my Twitter feed has really gone downhill. Barely showing me any tweets from folks I follow and engage with the most. Much less utility. Frustrating. .
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Debt does not equal growth. Debt does not equal growth. Debt does not equal growth. .
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$AMC Adam Aaron is effectively orchestrating a massive pump n dump scheme, no?. Insiders know the stock is completely overvalued. They are gaslighting retail investors into believing their selling is because of "prudent estate planning". Anyone else see the irony in this?.
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OMG if $FB putting up 3-11% 1Q22. God help $SNAP $TWTR $PINS.
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I asked my wife tonight, would you be okay if we cancelled $NFLX? After some deliberation, she said yes, that would be fine. 6 months ago the answer was a quick no.
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Whatever happens at 4:05 pm ET. Just remember. $SNAP is the economy. It is the only thing that matters.
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We are at the point where pumpers are calling out other pumpers for pumping!. 😂.
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We had to say goodbye to our best friend of 14 years today. Words can't describe how blessed we are to have had him in our lives for so long. Everything was better because of him. He was our soul dog. Thank you Kolby. We love you.
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"If I had to bet, I'd say that this might be one of the worst downturns that we've seen in recent history," Zuckerberg told workers in a weekly employee Q&A session, audio of which was heard by Reuters. $META $FB.
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$META is going to spend $174B - $184B in combined total expenses and capex in 2025. They are going to spend more in 2025 than they did in total revenue in 2024 of $164.5B!. That is insane!.
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Tweeting our entire $NFLX Short Black Book from March 2019. Part 1: Industry Overview + Competition.Part 2: Addressable Market Analysis.Part 3: Content Accounting + Valuation. Part 1 is below, Part 2 and 3 coming shortly. Link to slide deck + video:
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You know who loses if $GOOGL is forced to sell Chrome?. Consumers. Great job Government.
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$SNAP now at $16. $FB $TWTR $PINS have all round-tripped since the pandemic. Here's looking at you $GOOGL 👀. (Don't @ me about how cheap it is, FCF yield, buyback, etc. your numbers are wrong).
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1/ Thoughts on this @Forbes $FUBO article - . The author makes some interesting points but appears to lack an understanding of the media industry, MVPD (not mVPD!) competitive landscape, pricing, and how programming costs and sports rights actually work.
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$NFLX exit survey of why folks canceled their Netflix subscription 👇
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Something tells me Elon is not paying a royalty to $DIS - lawsuits are going to be fun to watch!
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From our Short $META presentation on Monday:
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Hot take. $TWTR won't be a public company this time next year.
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I am seeing many tweets:. 1) ridiculing shorts.2) criticizing financial analysis.2) shorts questioning why they short .3) valuation doesn't matter (stories do).4) cycle doesn't exist . "Those who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it.". cc @WallStCynic @Hedgeye.
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Funny thing is. If we woke up tomorrow and @sundarpichai announced:. 1) 20% Headcount reduction.2) Accelerated share repurchase .3) New $100B buyback program.4) Small Dividend. $GOOGL would be pushing $200 and the narrative re #AI and search disruption would completely shift.
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Cheap can always get cheaper and we are in a risk-off market. but $ROKU at $60!. This thing should still grow platform revs 30% per year, for the next 5-years and come out a disproportionate winner from the collapse of linear TV.
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$GOOGL looks like a miss to me. Revenue (Pod 1). ❌Search/other +4% vs Consensus +8%.❌YouTube -2% vs +3%.❌Network -2% vs +3%.❌Total Advertising +3% vs +6%. Profit (Pod 2). ❌EPS $1.06 vs $1.26.❌Operating Margin 29.9% vs 33.9% .❌EBIT -19% YoY vs -7%.❌FCF $16.1B vs $18.9B.
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Here is the basic problem $GOOGL faces. They have 90% share of search. If $MSFT Bing with a better mousetrap (ChatGPT) is able to double or triple market share in site traffic/ads. it is all downside for $GOOGL.
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Fed: . We are fighting inflation to protect you, the American family. Also Fed: . We are going to destroy your life savings that is mostly in equities after a decade of ZIRP/TINA.
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They get big so fast! And always ready with the right hook!. No matter what side of the trade your on remember what's important!
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I am pretty confident $FB is exaggerating the IDFA hit to their business. Self serving narrative that takes antitrust pressures off. It had an impact for sure. but a lot of other factors at play here.
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$GOOGL that was not a good quarter. Search/Other -1.6% YoY.YouTube -7.8% YoY.Total Advertising -3.6% YoY.Operating Income -17% YoY. And we know 1Q23 trends are worse than 4Q22!. Numbers are going lower!.
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Cities are burning. Real economy is on life support. And here we are. Debating whether the $SPY holds $3k and when the next round of stimulus / easy money is coming. Divergences everywhere.
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I just stumbled into a place where I never want to be again. a land of fomo, momo, and bubbles where storytelling and confirmation bias reigns supreme and facts are blinded by egos.
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This is AWESOME! Going to save it. Thanks for sharing.
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At this point. anyone analyzing $NFLX and streaming industry economics without taking into account cash content costs / amortization, and just looking at the IS needs to get their head checked and excel license taken away.
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$AMZN $AAPL $GOOGL $FB report Q2 earnings that crush expectations. The day after an anti-trust hearing. And. The same day the U.S reported:. 1) GDP -32.9% YoY.2) 1.4M Jobless Claims. Oh the (sad) irony!.
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I don't think investors are appropriately evaluating the post-crisis capital structure of many businesses that are raising tons of debt to stay alive. Not good for equity value. .
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40% of $NFLX U.S. subs say they are likely or extremely likely to subscribe to the Disney+ service and are willing to pay more for $DIS than $NFLX @ballmatthew @Variety @Recode @RichBTIG
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IF we are being real. $META guided:. 1) 1Q25 revenue below (Factset consensus).2) 2025 expenses way above.3) 2025 operating Income/EPS below. But hey. AI!. Oh and they said they have NO idea on the level of investment required on a go forward basis. .
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$NFLX longs watching the credit markets freeze up knowing the business model is:. 1) completely dependent on capital markets. and the level of cash burn is:. 2) Not sustainable/irresponsible. Tick tock. Who shoots first?
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$NFLX better than feared. but let's think about something. Netflix just LOST 1.3M subscribers UCAN Q2. Even with 'Stranger Things' outperforming to become their biggest season of English TV ever.
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@BlueDuckCap So many things that I love about this photo. The "don't chase" post it. (I have one that says "it's never all priced in"). The Bayer aspirin. The $10 bill. .
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Tough couple of days for the $ROKU bull case. Thought I would share our thoughts we published last night on recent developments:. WSJ reported on 2/13 that $WMT is in talks to acquire $VZIO. The Walmart / Roku relationship has been strategic – where Roku powers Walmart’s ONN.
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Long $ROKU . "We see a path to $300 over the next 12-24 months as revenue growth accelerates and estimates move higher.". Institutional Call 8/20 at 12:30pm ET. New data and analysis. Contact sales@hedgeye.com for details. Cc @HedgeyeDJ @Hedgeye.
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Sticking with the same playbook:. Stage 1: Panic/Sell-Everything (Timing Late March). Stage 2: Big Bounce on "Return to Normal" / Govt Intervention (Late March -> Early April). Stage 3: Earnings Season Reality Check / Sell-off (early-mid May). June/July = Bottom of sorts?.
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I understand the saying "don't fight the fed". but if combined fiscal and monetary policy is enough to offset economy gravity and trajectory of corporate earnings, then I probably should take out a second mortgage at 0%, quit my job and just buy $TSLA $NFLX $QQQ !!!.
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Communications Pro @Hedgeye. Internet. Media. Telecom. ✅Top Long and Short Ideas.✅Sector and Security Level Analysis.✅Industry Field Notes.✅Alternative Data.✅Proprietary Surveys. Click Here: Be the first notified when the service goes live!
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Rumor has it that @Hedgeye may be hosting an #exclusive event for @F1 in Las Vegas 11/16 - 11/18 next year. (And for those who know us, we don't disappoint.). Hit the like button on this tweet if you have interest in attending and watching the race with us!.
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I'm only going to use $MSFT Bing for the next 60-days. No $GOOGL. Record every minute of the experience. The highs and the lows. Already sold the idea to $NFLX for a fall release (documentary only available on ad supported tier). What should the title be?.
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I don't talk about my personal account performance often here. But between my personal and retirement accounts, I was up 57% in Q1 while maintaining an average 60% cash position. And I was up 75% last year. #blessed.
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I think Zuckerberg will ultimately have to choose between 1) competing with #TikTok and 2) building the #metaverse. It seems increasingly unlikely (absent a TikTok ban), they will be able to succeed at both while also creating shareholder value. $META.
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$NFLX $1B lower content spend YoY driving most of the FCF beat. not sustainable, and increases risk of content gap go forward.
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If you take the time to read $NFLX SEC filings (10-k/10-q) it tells a more sober version of the prevailing bull thesis. Apparently, no one reads financial statements anymore. Many just parrot management talking points. Think for yourself. Think differently. Do your own work!.
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Hired a company to come out and test for mold. Inspector asked what I did for a living. told him I was in investment research. Without hesitation he told tell me all about his crypto portfolio and how he was using KuCoin to bypass NY state laws. We are so back!.
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$TWTR
Hot take. $TWTR won't be a public company this time next year.
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Something tells me there are going to be A LOT of $NFLX this earnings season. .
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Received some constructive criticism today from #FinTwit. Apparently, I need to focus more on the story and "big picture", and how consumers "feel" about a specific product. and less so on. Financials, valuation, my models and data. can't make this stuff up.
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Hot take. $NFLX will be the target of an activist investor/campaign in the next year.
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I'd ignore these $GOOGL downgrades. Time to get cautious on search + competition was last year going into Q4/Q1 - when we were short, growth was slowing, and top-line estimates were too high. Not when staring at 4 quarters of easier comps and my data continues to get better.
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Nothing triggers me more than when excel crashes and a file doesn't recover.
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So I may have missed my 7am flight. but now I get to travel with these guys!. @HedgeyeIndstrls @Hedgeye_Staples
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Someone may want to inform the author of that article that $NFLX is not available in China.
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I am clearly on the wrong side of this business. how do I get paid to tell everyone to buy at any price, blame market sell offs and factors for when stocks go down, act like a guru when stocks go up and take no accountability for my work?.
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Amazing to me how the street still sleeping on what $ROKU is building in #CTV . That WILL NOT last for long.
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$TWTR 🚀🚀🚀. 1) Double development velocity by end of 2023.2) Reach at least 315M mDAU in 4Q23 (~20% CAGR 4Q19).3) At least double revenue to $7.5B by 2023 (consensus $6.5B) / CAGR ~27% from 2020. Reiterates long-term 40-45% adjusted EBITDA.
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