Blue Duck Capital Partners
@BlueDuckCap
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L/S Hedge Fund. Blue Duck Capital, LLC is soliciting no action or endorsement based upon tweets, retweets, likes. Do your own due diligence.
Manhattan Beach CA
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Pinned Tweet
"The Indian called Blue Duck was frightening. Now that he stood close to them his head seemed bigger than ever, and his hands too. He held the rifle in the crook of his arm, handling it like a toy."
- Larry McMurtry, "Lonesome Dove", 1985. Pulitzer Prize for Fiction 1986.
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Folks here’s a look inside a real life hedge fund. Glamorous isn’t it?
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The $MRNA CEO has sold ~$80,000,000 worth of stock in January so far.
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Fun fact: $TSLA and $SNAP spent about the same amount on R&D in the quarter. The former is supposed to be creating a fleet of self-driving cars which will revolutionize transportation and the latter makes pictures that disappear on your phone.
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@BillMelugin_
Nothing unfortunate about it. You abandon all journalism ethics and this is what happens. Karma.
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@SallyGold
@NYCMayor
@errollouis
I actually think the ONE thing liberals and conservatives agree on is that
@NYCMayor
is a joke.
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Incredible. Adam Jonas has identified $500B in hidden value at $TSLA based on a "super computer" which was not even mentioned ONE TIME in the 2022 10k. Incredible sleuthing.
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$SNAP appears to be running an employee enrichment scheme financed by shareholder capital. They certainly are not running a viable for profit business.
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At 19-20x PE vs historical median of ~23x we think the market is not giving $MCD proper credit for a phenomenal and relatively new business feature (customer mousetrap) which is it's mobile app.
In 2022 there were 127million downloads of the MCD app which far surpassed other
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@GavinNewsom
Population 40 Million. How many of those lost are over the age of 80? How many are in nursing homes? How many had serious other medical issues? We flattened curve. That was the deal. Now end the tyranny.
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@GavinNewsom
With everything going on - all the problems we all face - THIS is what you are proposing? What is wrong with you, sir?
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Bob Iger just got paid $31mn. $DIS stock is down 9% over the past 12 months, massively underperforming the market.
Disney will not have ONE new movie or show debuting over the next 3 months. Zero. This company is a joke and so is the valuation.
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Well deserved. "Parag Agrawal, 37, who took over as Twitter CEO less than three months ago, announced his plans to take parental leave during a meeting with Twitter employees last week, the Post reported."
$TWTR
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@WhitlockJason
She has good hands, touch in the paint. Can bang down low. Scrappy. Terrible from the line though.
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@dbongino
Revenge for what? Beating Isis? Getting the economy ripping? Making progress w/ N. Korea? Standing up to Iran? Making peace deals in the Middle East? Operation Warp Speed that will get us a vaccine in a week? What does he want revenge for?
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$DIS is our biggest short. They are in deep trouble. More a fair warning to the many longs than anything else - def not advice. But this theme remains under-researched by buyside and all but ignored by sell side. Thus there's opportunity.
$DIS $CMCSA $WBD $PARA $NXST $SBGI $LGF $NYT
The Musk spaces with Faber and BBC have already changed the game in our view. Desantis event today a further watershed. Musk is one of the better interviewers and interviews around. Tucker going direct. Bari Weiss Free Press and
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1. What $GOOGL's management needs to do asap:
First, Follow $META's lead on guidance. META used to not guide at all. Then they began offering annual Opex guide. Then some color on annual revenue. Now they give detailed quarterly top and bottom-line guidance which has been very
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Kinda feels like Covid is over. Anyone else think that?
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@dannykanell
@DeionSandersJr
Danny playing for clicks as usual bc that's all he can do these days.
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The Democrats, the media, and the deep state have been propping up a senile Puppet President for 4 years. We don’t know who is calling the shots. Think about the magnitude of that lie. How can they ever be trusted on ever again ? Don’t let them swap out the puppet and try and
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@1881MorrisBrown
Masks make people more at risk of getting sick. Constant touching of the mask is akin to touching one's face over and over. Shake hands with someone, touch a door knob, touch the mask. Rinse and repeat. That's how germs spread. Masks are also bacteria traps.
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$tslaq delivery PR word count:
2019q1: 363 words
2018q4: 553 words
2018q3: 617 words
2018q2: 495 words
Today’s report: 144 words.
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Don't spend a ton of time making comp sheets but did a $GOOGL one today and the relative value appears notable: 10.7x 2025 ebitda vs 19.8x mean for group. 15% expected next 24 month rev cagr vs 16% for group. $AAPL gets near 2x the ebitda multiple v GOOG w/ worst expected growth
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@Pjely1962
@maggieNYT
Full quote: "I want them to be appreciative. I don't want them to say things that aren't true. I want them to be appreciative. We've done a great job. And I'm not talking about me. I'm talking about Mike Pence, the task force, I'm talking about FEMA, the Army Corps of Engineers"
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*MUSK: `TESLA TEAM IS THE STRONGEST IT’S EVER BEEN'
He's panicking guys
$TSLAQ
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@GavinNewsom
So you've officially closed the state longer and harder than any other state and here we are - in WORSE shape than before. So what do you do - you double down of course! Worst governor in the country!
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@BillFOXLA
Ned Lamont in CT, also Dem, just re-opened the whole state. More so than TX even. What the fck is Newsom's deal?
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@BillFOXLA
No. George Soros and Hollywood "elites" elected him. Or should I say, got him "elected".
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@GavinNewsom
California: we (well, not me) voted this clown in. This is on us. Now we need to vote him out.
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If $DIS goes to $45, that is still a $85B market cap.
$FOXA is $15B, $WBD is $30B, $PARA is $10B, $AMCX is $600mn.
We think $DIS structural earnings power is $2-3. So 20x that = $40-60 PT.
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*FACEBOOK STOPS REMOVING CLAIMS COVID-19 WAS MAN-MADE: POLITICO
So brave. A full 14 months later. What about election fraud claims? When will those be eligible for the sanctity of $FB's hallowed pages?
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We pitched $amps long at Sohn this afternoon. One of the few winners in the alternative energy space with an excellent r/r skew. 200% upside. Happy to share the deck with anyone that messages me.
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Iger to stay on at Disney through 2026. A few thoughts:
1. Disney is not getting acquired. Period. So throw that nonsense out.
2. They cannot find anyone else to take the seat - not a bullish development.
3. Iger thinks he needs at least 3 years to fix it. That's not a quick
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@CDCgov
Why do you keep lying? Better to come clean, be honest, slowly rebuild trust though that will take years.
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Looked into this one today - spent half the day on it. Cohodes is right. Dumpster fire. Top ticked bad acquisitions. No competitive advantage. High debt. Poor quality of earnings and accounting. They in trouble. $hele
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Disney's biggest failure has been one of capital allocation. They spent good money after bad on profitless DTC subs inherently likely to churn. They spent $71B on Fox assets that are in secular decline. They continue with a failing content production playbook which prioritizes
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@iammsuzy
CU has a national championship, Heisman, Thorpe, Butkus, winners. Awesome uniforms. Best entrance in college football in the best overall atmosphere in country. Boulder is a great town. CU is a good academic university also. Pac-12 is winnable.
@DeionSanders
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Spent some time on $GOOGL Gemini. It's actually an amazing product. Great answers to questions like "what is the difference between levered and unlevered FCF" and describe "Telematics for me". The non answer when asking about DJT's "best qualities" is bothersome - but not really
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@josh_newberg
Mocking a woman who has been THE biggest Buffs fan (along with her twin, RIP) for about 7 decades is a pretty weird flex.
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Good to keep it simple.
$DIS is a content company that makes bad content.
$MRNA is a vaccine company that makes crap vaccines.
$FOXA is a news and sports network that has pissed off a lot of its customers and lost it's star.
$PTON is a stationary bike company that makes no
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Marvel has collapsed. This is a disaster for $DIS
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It was this chart + the obvious fact that the $MRNA "vaccine" didn't work that got us looking at this name and ultimately short. The year+ of ensuing research has us convinced that this is the most damaging fraud in human history and so far the perpetrators of it have only gotten
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$GEO and $CXW trade at discounted multiples bc they do not jibe with much of the "ESG" ethos. With that said - they also provide critical infrastructure which state governments are no longer willing to provide themselves. In a normal world, their cashflows would get a PREMIUM
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Shorted more $DIS today. We have seen this story at least five times since we started shorting the stock in 2015. What typically occurs is that the perma-bulls always dream the dream and get encouraged by some near term financial or KPI engineering at the hands of Iger. The stock
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Turns out the rip in $META over the past year was all thanks to TEMU going HAM on performance ads.
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@HedgeyeComm
The $10 was just given to me by my 6 year old bc he owed me $10. I was pretty proud he paid me back. Maybe I should redact some of the other stuff in the photo?
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@senatormelendez
@lalovestrump
@GavinNewsom
Yes. It's been depressing seeing sheeple wearing 2 masks in their cars. Its also been depressing seeing no end in sight with totally political, opaque, and seemingly arbitrary decisions effecting so many. Disrupted my kids' schools...our local economy...our downtown...
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@GavinNewsom
REMINDER: COVID is NOT a risk for violent protesters. That activity will continue to be permitted.
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@Garrett_FoxNews
@JackPosobiec
lol. Keep defunding police and letting criminals run amok - will work out well.
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Here's the thing(s) on $SPOT:
1. Rapid premium sub growth puts them on a path to 300mn Premium Subs by 2025. They just took price by $1 which means the current ~4.30 ARPU should be on a $60-70 annualized runrate by 2025, conservatively.
2. 300mn x ~$63 ARPU = ~$19B Premium
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I don't believe that Gates or Fauci ever got vaxed and I would bet the farm that $PFE and $MRNA CEOs never did. Saline solution was made available for the "elites".
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@BillFOXLA
Bill you must be doing a good job is all that means. Keep it up. Appreciate your real journalism. Rare these days.
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Rules that have worked for us:
1. whenever $PTON rips on a deal with some ancillary partner look to buy puts.
2. Whenever Gene Munster says "Apple will buy so and so" and the stock rips bc he said it, buy puts in that stock bc $AAPL never buys anything.
3. When $MRNA has to
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@Jason
@RobertIger
Disney is bleeding cash with $50b in debt and a collapsing linear tv business and stagnate DTC business. Oh and their content has sucked for 3 years now.
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OMG $DIS recasting their segment results once again. They do this every 24 months or so. It's a major red flag. And a nightmare for analysts.
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1. Last week I tweeted that we shorted more $DIS. Here is the thinking:
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$GOOGL is the ultimate AI company. Lets put it in terms a 8 year old can understand (my preferred language).
AI is only as good as the data that informs it and sustains it.
The data is like gasoline for AI.
GOOGL has monopolies (or close to) on massive everyday consumer
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@TomFitton
@Twitter
@jack
@nypost
I'm not a lawyer, but I'm pretty sure Jack just committed a felony. Will there be any consequences or nah?
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@WhitlockJason
I would have agreed with you other than the fact that the kid just had a heart attack and the NBA/USC did mandate it, essentially, at one point.
Your take would be quite a coincidence.
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I've been doing this for 10+ years...not that long, but not for nothing. And I can say that I've never seen anything like $TSLAQ. So obviously a fraud and right there in plain sight. Yet it continues. Unimpeded.
@elonmusk
you're some sort of genius, but not the kind people think.
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Here is the section of our Q1 letter were we discuss our new position in Evolv Technologies, $EVLV. Not advice - obviously.
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@nntaleb
@JegErAlan
@PeterSweden7
Yeah I mean
@Pfizer
only wanted to keep the trial data under lock and key for 75 years. I'm sure it's nothing. Same with the countless 20 somethings who are dropping dead all of the world. Probably some sort of Paradox like you say.
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The fact that so many “talking heads” are tweeting authoritatively and knowingly about the recent events in Russia - in just a 12 hour span - should immediately discredit all future and past tweets of theirs.
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Our thoughts on $DIS - in short form prose.
NET - Parks going negative (which it likely will soon) is bad news. NBA costs step up in 2026 derail earnings growth. Not good.
Obviously none of this is advice and we are probably wrong. No clue what will actually happen.
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$TSLAQ Norway update: We are now 72 days into Q2 and can observe that S/X registrations are pacing down 78% YoY and down 44% QoQ. Model 3s paced at 139 cars / day in Q1. Through June 11, we’re pacing at 26.7 cars / day for Q2.
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Hats off to $TSLAQ. I cover a lot of stcks, but none have a TWTR community that's even in the same stratosphere as $TSLAQ in terms of knowledge, rigor, and breath. In fact, no other stck is worth even spending 30 secs on TWTR as a part of process. But $TSLAQ demands it. Very cool
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$DIS has about 4 quarters of cash left at the current burn rate. Let that sink in.
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Wow. $CHTR got $DIS to cave and is getting Disney+ for FREE for it's entire footprint within the basic TV offering. Major coup for CHTR and now Disney+ will lose a lot of paying subs, I think.
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@Oldmanriver05
@adamcarolla
Won't stop until the perpetrators of the most damaging fraud in human history are brought to justice. Thanks Adam for the work you do.
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$TWTR management won't be getting up for another 2-3 hrs. And they don't really work on Mondays. They may not see the news until tomorrow.
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Translation: We have no buyer for the whole thing; we need money; please give us some money.
$PTON
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