Gerard Brady
@GerardBrady100
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Head of National Policy and Chief Economist @ibec_irl . Member of @NESCIreland . Longford exile. Views my own.
Joined April 2014
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80% of the world's cardiovascular stents.
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My strong economic prediction is that 2022 will be a huge year for pints.
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Some people have a warped sense of reassuring. The Taoiseach took out a piece of paper to make sure he didn't give people the wrong information on an important subject, rather than bluff it. He wasn't taking the leaving cert.
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I'm deeply worried about what reasons the other 18 per-cent of young people are drinking for.
Leaving Cert students urged to celebrate results safely after research reveals 82pc under 25s drink for 'fun'
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€6 a month per person - for the single market, freedom of movement, cross-border consumer rights, etc, etc. Our best value subscription.
A report from the European Court of Auditors shows Ireland paid €360 million more into the EU budget in 2020 than it received
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Today, in a national newspaper, I read a complaint about hyrbid working being bad because it would allow young people to live in rural towns and villages, should they choose - because it would result in "rural gentrification". Honestly, I haven't laughed as much in a long-while.
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The best part about this is that a random woman called Theresa May Scrivener, with 6 followers. just received a diplomatic correspondence by tweet from the US President
#Trump
#TrumpTweets
#specialrelationship
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House price-to-income ratios below 3
Oasis are trending. What else from the '90s should make a comeback?
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Describing Ireland as "deeply Catholic", at this stage, is kind of like describing Russia as "deeply communist"
In deeply Catholic Ireland, two citizens' assemblies showed that the public was in favour of legalising abortion and same-sex marriage
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Really striking in the RedC/BP poll that (MoE aside) Sinn Féin are within 4 points of FF & FG among ABC1 voters. That same gap was 13 & 22 points respectively in November. Difficult to explain it any other way than a lot of young middle class renters feel
@EOBroin
has the answers
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Here's one for nothing.
@TG4TV
consistently does some of the most interesting television available to Irish viewers, in both languages. Particularly great at documentaries and social history.
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There needs to be a vacant housing tax, with teeth, particularly in rent pressure zones. Levels of dereliction in urban Ireland are a joke.
Mountjoy Square + Gardiner St. Fine architecture, lovingly cherished by Dublin
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I'm starting to worry that Twitter might not be reflective of the general population
#GE2019
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In the past decade, Irish people abroad have sent over €7 billion home in remittances. Not to mention the many tens of billions over previous decades which helped make this country. Anyone supporting capital controls on remittances is pulling the roof in on their own head
Questions by independent TD Noel Grealish about personal remittances sent from Ireland to countries both within and outside the EU have led to controversy in the Dáil. |
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It's housing. The answer is housing. It's not nationalism. It's housing. They want to pay reasonable rents and have a chance at owning their own home.
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A week ahead of advisors running around Departments shouting:
"do we have any Green stuff? Where do we keep the bloody green stuff!! GET EVERYONE WHO CYCLES TO WORK INTO MY OFFICE NOW"
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Local politicians, of all parties and none, who pander to misinformation rather than show leadership are damaging the future of their communities. Simple as that.
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It's a bit technical, but it's worth recognising the good MEPs can do. His work as the lead negotiator on the Building Energy Performance Directive will have a major impact on the European building stock - particularly commercial - for the next decade and more.
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There's a lot of focus on the States failure to prepare for an 'outdoor summer'. But, let me ask this, where is the personal responsibility from these young people who could have invested in their garden decking or a nice veranda extension?
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One of the many projects (like the Luas, T2, etc) that was opposed as a waste of money or a 'white elephant' when it was being built but is now difficult to imagine the city working without it. The importance of taking a slightly longer view of infrastructure needs.
The Dublin Port Tunnel is Ireland's grandest civil engineering project. 5,000 workers laboured about 8 million man-hours on the mega-project. The mechanical stars of the Port Tunnel were Gráinne and Megan, two giant tunnel-boring machines.
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Imagine an Irish Government low in the polls and deciding to get themselves out by picking a massive row with Marty Morrissey.
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The travel advice seems clear enough to me, or am I missing something?
• Should I travel? Not unless it is essential.
• If I travel do I have to quarantine when I return? Yes, unless you travelled to a country on the green list.
The only ambiguity is what 'essential' means.
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The Examiner often has great front pages. Few more powerful than tomorrow's.
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Interesting. At first was struck by Dublin being the 6th largest city in Europe in 1800. Easy to forget that at the time we were 1/2 the size of Britain or Spain and twice the population of any of the Nordics, Netherlands, Austria, or Bavaria.
Largest cities in Europe in 1800: London and Paris are obvious but Naples at
#3
causes a double take! Far ahead of Vienna and twice the size of Amsterdam.
Bairoch’s data.
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Irish twitter seems to be splitting into two camps. People with friends and people who have never been wrong about anything.
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I must be missing something. The prom is a potentially incredible amenity for families, currently being wasted as Ireland's wettest car park. More broadly, if we can't even try temporary cycleways what chance for the massive modal shift needed in the next decade.
Plans to install a temporary cycleway along the Salthill promenade in Galway has become a deeply divisive issue in the local community. | Read:
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Doing some maps for a presentation. The one below shows the median household income in each of the 3,400 Irish electoral divisions as a % of the national average. Joins a long list of maps showing the
@shannonsidenews
& North West regions lagging the rest of the country.
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Eurostat have some interesting new experimental data from their joint analysis of the household budget survey & SILC (link ).
A chart below, on direct & indirect tax as a % of gross household income across a number of EU countries. Ireland a standout.
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While we're all talking statues. My favourite is the emigrant one in Longford town which looks the spit off Mark Hughes.
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The table below shows the annual increase in residential rents across a group of EU comparators and Ireland between 1997 and 2022.
Red = average annual rents up by 5% or more
Green = increasing by 2% or less
Yellow = rents falling
Spot the outlier.
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They should be encased in gelignite. Dublin's weird obsession with these industrial eyesores is a form of Stockholm syndrome.
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Good sense here from the Taoiseach.
"280 materials go into making up the Pfizer vaccine. There are 86 suppliers of those materials, from 19 countries around the World. You start putting up barriers, other countries may follow suit in terms of some of those vital raw materials."
Taoiseach Micheál Martin says he is against the EU placing export bans on Covid-19 vaccines, describing it as a 'retrograde step'. He says it is vital that supply chains are kept open |
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Excellent conversation earlier on inclusive growth.
Still struck by this chart from Prof. Brian Nolan versus what we sometimes tell ourselves.
From 1987 to 2019 Ireland had the largest growth in median real incomes and the largest fall in inequality of any developed economy.
A good day for
@ESRIDublin
. New research on income inequality and child poverty, funded by
@CommunityFound
, was launched by
@rodericogorman
. We then hosted an excellent discussion with
@Kathleensf1
,
@Tanya_Ward
,
@GerardBrady100
,
@TomAMcDonnell1
,
@NiamhAGarvey
and
@triciakeilthy
.
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Bit late for it now - but the chart below shows the difference between the three main party manifestos on income tax. People talk a lot of raiméis about there being no ideological divide in Irish politics. Left, right, and centre very clearly deliniated on this issue.
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Completely personal one here. But an idea also worth considering is to start paying Child Benefit during pregnancy. Was trialled in the UK in 2009, during the third trimester. Very good evidence of positive outcomes for mother and child. Relatively small cost here - €20mn or so.
Varadkar considering top-up child benefit payment on means-tested basis
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A chart below showing why Ireland's income tax take only fell by 1% in 2020 despite massive unemployment?
- The workers most likely to lose their jobs due to COVID were lower earners.
- Our very progressive tax system, means low earners pay a small % of total income tax/USC
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I'm no political strategist. But if I were the government, I wouldn't take on the very popular president on an issue the public agrees with the very popular president. Irrespective of the constitutional questions.
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"This tweet cant be replied to, retweeted, or liked due to risk of violence"
The President of the United States.
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Four really important and interesting charts below in this mornings
@fiscalcouncil
paper. On Ireland's infrastructure levels relative to the EU15:
Low housing stock.
Low on health infrastructure.
Low on transport infrastructure.
Only middling on education infrastructure.
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"Where's my €5 a week in a broad tax cut/pension increase?"
We are facing two years of €20+ billion deficits. There is half a million people unemployed, tens of thousands of SMEs on the brink, an ongoing housing crisis & a no deal Brexit in January.
Maybe sit this one out.
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It's probably trite to repeat this, but its all over my timeline. If you rage-share a video from a person who makes videos of themselves being awful, you aren't calling them out. You are not just platforming them. You are their business model & are actively funding their idiocy.
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I'm trying not to tweet casually about the horrific events over the past week. But just to say, the Irish government has represented us well, speaking with moral clarity and consistency.
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Even his detractors can't deny that he will leave office with one of the most durable policy and legislative delivery records of any Minister in the recent history of the State. On things he believed in too - from the Climate Act to big improvements in rural public transport.
‘An absolute privilege’: Eamon Ryan steps down as Green Party leader and will not run in next election
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I have a lingering suspicion that a large part of the electorate took nothing from the financial crisis and would happily return to the days of a narrowing the tax base, 100% mortgages, NY shopping trips & helicopters to the races. This isn't disabusing me of that notion.
🚨POLL🚨
Ireland Thinks / Mail on Sunday
Q. Do you support the abolition of the Property Tax?
Yes: 51%
No: 42%
Unsure: 7%
19th June 2021
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Re, this 'do people from the South know anything about the North' discourse. If it helps my Northern followers feel better, I've met people in Dublin who thought Longford was in Connaught/near Kilkenny/beside Lucan/a town in Westmeath.
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I'm not complaining here, the platform is free. But just as an observation, Twitter is now utterly useless for engagement and the timeline is full of brain poison and culture wars rubbish.
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I see lots of people in my thread, understandably, asking why renewable electricity is seeing increases in price too.
It's to do with how pricing works in the wholesale electricity market. It operates in the EU on what's known as a 'marginal' pricing model.
Very quick thread:
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It would be good for Irish society if this fell quite a bit.
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@Stag442
@jonnyfallon
This is the total remittances from Ireland to other countries in each of the past three years we have data. The source is Eurostat and the CSO. Total remittances to Nigeria are €16 million per annum or about €950 per head.
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I'd like to once again propose the constituencies be redrawn to align with the local radio stations.
(Weird Shannonside in Galway and Midlands 103 in Longford overreachs in the map below aside)
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This reminds me of this table, which is both amazing and tragic. In 1800, before the famine, Dublin was the 6th largest city in Europe. Ireland was ½ the pop of Britain and twice the size of Netherlands or any of the Nordics.
Map shows the 17 largest cities in Europe as of 1600 AD. Source:
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Rents are starting to slow down in Ireland. But it is still worth reflecting on how different (being kind) our market is. The table below is annual changes in rents in all EU15 countries since 1999.
Red = rents growing by more than 5% annually
Yellow = falling rents
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Looking back on it now, I think Enda Kenny's 'St Patrick was an immigrant' speech might have been the high point of the Trump Presidency. The best & most coherent thing to happen while Trump was on a platform.
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I imagine the author finished this piece, took a satisfying sip from a cup of tea, and thought to himself: "Now to fix Kashmir".
Only by forgiving – and forgetting – can Ireland move on from its past | Simon Jenkins
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That signature remains the basis for much of the improvements in life and living standards in Ireland since.
🇩🇰🇮🇪 50 years since Denmark and Ireland joined the EU.
Denmark, Ireland and the United Kingdom joined the European Communities on 1 January 1973, raising the number of member countries to 9.
#EUarchives
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I don't know if the Late Late Show having a woman on, right now, to talk about seeing "guardian angels" is really capturing the national zeitgeist
#repealthe8th
#latelate
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Universal hot school meals by 2025 is very good policy.
Not just because it is popular. There is also evidence it has strong positive outcomes for children in other countries. No means-test sensible too - avoids stigmatisation and unnecessary incentive cliff edges for families.
The Hot School Meals Programme has been expanded with 900 more primary schools joining the scheme
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I've read this article twice now and honestly words fail me. The breaches of trust and ethics.
The Department of Health has been secretly using information from private doctor consultations to build and maintain dossiers on children with autism who were involved in legal actions against the State,
#rteinvestigates
has learned
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Government capital spend will be above €10bn for the first time ever. This is the first time in modern history that the Irish State has done the right thing and leaned into capital investment as the economy slowed. Really welcome.
@ibec_irl
#Budget2021
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@rodericogorman
Best of luck in the new role. Its a shame you've had to spend your first week dealing with this garbage from anonymous trolls, but hopefully you'll have lots of opportunities to progress real, and important, issues ahead.
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Worth emphasising, because people often worry about this. If you get vaccinated, 95% efficacy doesn't mean 5 in every 100 of you will get Covid anyway.
It means a 95% reduction in the risk of infection, relative to the risk had you not been vaccinated.
Much more powerful.
Why would this happen if everyone is vaccinated? Vaccines offer extraordinary protection, but not perfect. We have almost 500,000 people aged 70 and over; even if the vaccine is 95% effective in preventing severe disease, 25,000 people remain vulnerable. 26/36
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It's very unclear to me why these headers were allowed to shut a public library without intervention from the
Gardaí.
The City Library was forced to close today due to public safety concerns.
As part of a protest on Grand Parade a banner was mounted across the entrance without permission.
Please find below a statement from Cork City Libraries:
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Worth remembering, regardless of the merits of the scheme itself, when groups like this say 'we are against transients in our community' they mean young people and others without the means to buy.
This objection to rental housing in Ranelagh would be rejected from a Ross O'Carroll Kelly column for being too much.
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A lot of comment on this - some fair, some not.
One observation. ~Half the €20bn is equalising NI public sector pay and welfare up. But there is no corresponding rise in the tax take.
So, it assumes a 0% marginal income tax on the pay rise and no VAT/Excise on higher spending.
A new paper 'Northern Ireland Subvention: Possible Unification Effects' authored by Co-Chair of the
@IIEA
Economists Group, John Fitzgerald and Member of the Economists Group Professor
@MorgenrothEdgar
has been published. Read the full paper here:
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After years of inspection I've deduced the hierarchy of trains getting into Connolly:
1. Dart
2. Belfast intercity
3. Dundalk commuter
4. Newbridge commuter
5. Stray leaves
6. A ghost train
7. Early mass
8. Grand funk railroad
9. Soul train
10. Any Maynooth/Sligo commuter
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I don't think this got enough love because of Raab's, eh, admission
"Don't panic, we have at least six weeks medicine in the country before we have to think of something else real quick'" -
Is the least reassuring line to stop people stockpiling humanly possible
The Health Secretary
@MattHancock
calls on the public not to panic and stockpile medicines out of fear of a no-deal Brexit
#Peston
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The people who do this are the lowest. Ringing in a threat against a house with young kids in it. Pitiful behaviour by miserable shites.
Bomb threat made on home of Taoiseach Simon Harris while wife and children present
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This chart, on regional growth at a global level, is fascinating. I've never seen the full global data before.
Regions in black have seen per capita GDP fall over 20 years.
Yellow, weak growth.
Green, fairly good growth.
Blue, very strong growth.
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Very true. On average companies I've talked to are facing a 3 to 5 times increase in energy bills. For most, their choice is to fix at today's record price or pay the wholesale price. Example of a small shop going from €50k annual bill to €150k in 2022 and worse likely ahead.
Reminder: in many European countries, electricity prices are "capped" or "managed" for households. But that's not the case (generally) for businesses. Small and medium enterprises are getting the full fare. Bear that in mind when thinking about inflation |
#EnergyCrisis
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The NTMA raised €6 billion at 0.32% today.
When borrowing costs are this low, the risk of doing too little to combat the current crisis is always going to carry a higher risk than extending too much.
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Deferring the carbon tax increase would save the average household €1.40/month off the gas bill. I get the political urge - but it would be untargeted, too little to be meaningful & create a bad precedent. There are better ways.
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Some professional news: Bit of a change in the old title.
Will hopefully be a help to the radio producers who previously had to ask: "Can we just call you economist instead of Head of Tax and Fiscal Policy".
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Setting up an Irish equivalent of the UK's ISA saving regime would have the advantages of being:
a) straightforward
b) good policy
c) popular
d) likely to cut through with the public
Perfect opportunity to make the leap with the ongoing Funds Review.
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If you were going to do this I don't understand why you would limit this to first-time buyers ONLY, rather than any owner-occupier.
Our next scandal will be families trying to trade-up boxed out of new estates while houses lying empty for lack of FTBs.
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Countermotion: Close Strasbourg.
French politicians propose a parliamentary resolution for French to become "the only" working language of the European Union.
They describe Brexit as a "unique opportunity" to reverse the encroachment of English and its attendant "Anglo-Saxon culture"
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We collect ~€4,000 per person more than a normal country in Corporate Tax. Not by our own making. Without that subsidy, we are running a big fiscal deficit.
We also lose c.€5 billion annually in carbon related taxes this decade.
A debate on abolishing the USC is fantasy land.
A new Red C poll shows that seven out of ten support the abolition of the Universal Social Charge – but the government has mentioned plans to reduce it, not end it
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The chart below shows the evolution of real wages in Ireland & the UK over the past decade. It really is exceptional how poor the UK performance has been relative to us, despite an enormous financial crisis. Also, that divergence since the Brexit vote!
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Gonna go against the consensus here and say no to the National Park idea. It should be bought by a yank from under a local hot head, lead to a murder and a tragic ending where Sean Bean and a hape of cattle get driven off a cliff.
The Conor Pass is for sale - 1,400 acres of it including Pedlar’s Lake.
Asking price of €10m.
It should be a National Park!
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@andrew_lilico
Did you look at the other results of that poll or just selectively quote the part that suited the self-serving narrative you have tied yourself to?
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A tax increase on myself, that I'd support: It's meant to end this year (but we've heard that before) but the exemption from the property tax for any home bought in 2013 and all new builds since 2013 is now 8 years in and a bit of a joke.
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Average rent increases across Europe in the first 11 months of 2017 vs same period in 2016. Oh, to be a Frenchman!
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So, patronising. Ah, like:
"Sorry Sur, shera musha we did never hear of coffee down here until ye young people does be coming along and gentrifty us. We were happy in our poverty, eating raw turnips, until young people had the choice to move home from the big schmoke"
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I'm torn on the potential reintroduction of mortgage interest relief. On one hand, evidence suggests it would be mostly capitalised in higher house prices and it would further widen the inequity between renters and homeowners. On the other hand, it would benefit me personally.
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Here's a chart from a presentation I did recently. 5 year employment growth across a bunch of developed economies. Ireland is in green.
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Just an observation from a user perspective. The COVID tracker app is really intuitive and neat. A credit to the team in
@nearform
who built it. The company is a really interesting regional suceess story too.
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Countries which went through crisis programmes will better understand the feeling if slights, stereotypes, & dumb morality tales, came during a public health tragedy.
We can argue about policy, but the Dutch have been tone deaf. Their standing diminished.
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Calling in a bomb threat against any home, not least against one with two young kids in it, is the lowest of the low. It is hard to comprehend the callous mindset behind it.
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He deserves a lot of credit for his stint in Enterprise from 2011. The Action Plan for Jobs was a really well constructed and executed policy campaign. Made a big difference to job creation at a time it was needed.
Former Cabinet minister Richard Bruton is to stand down as a Fine Gael TD at the next general election, the Irish Independent can reveal
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I look forward to the supplements.
"What will €5,000 buy your eternal soul in Ranelagh, Spain, Jamaica, Norway and Donegal?"
The Irish Times Group acquires online death notice platform
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This is a really significant piece of work by
@CSOIreland
.
ESB connections overestimated new dwelling completions by 31,576 or 59% between 2011 and 2017.
Vindication of
@lorcansirr
& others in flagging the issue & terrific work by the
@CSOIreland
team
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There has been little enough done to create capacity in public spaces for an 'outdoor summer'. And many young people in urban areas don't have gardens. So young people congregating in popular, accessible, areas which remain open isn't in the least bit surprising. Not even a bit.
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Non-indexation of tax bands is a decision to increase taxes in real terms.
Chart shows the standard rate band value since 2002, versus what it would have been indexed to wages. Kept pace(ish) in the 2000s, but since the crisis cut in Budget 2011 it has fallen well behind.
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Covid-19 liquidity support schemes, in mid-sized EU economies, signed off under the temporary state aid framework in the last week.
Poland €22 bn (4% of GDP)
Portugal €13 bn (6%)
Sweden €9 bn (2%)
Greece €2 bn (1%)
Estonia €1.75 bn (6%)
Ireland €0.2 bn (0.09% of GNI*)
#EUStateAid
#coronavirus
Commission approves €13 billion Portuguese schemes to support economy in coronavirus outbreak
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Can't imagine it will have the mass appeal of 'Emily in Paris' but who am I to tell.
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Like, they're one of the largest mech/elec engineering firms in the State. It'd be news if they weren't winning public contracts.
Michael Stone’s Designer Group, which helped minister in general elections, won tenders for work at Finance, Health and Housing
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Was asked this Q recently and thought the answer is interesting. One-in-every-four millennials (25 to 39, in case you're asking) in the Irish workforce come from abroad. The EU average is one-in-every-ten workers.
We're not a small open economy, we're a small OPEN economy
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