Professor Philip Nolan
@PhilipNolan_SFI
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Director-General @scienceirel | Scientist, teacher, passionately interested in many things, and a cyclist | directorgeneral @sfi .ie | Personal account
Dublin, Ireland
Joined September 2018
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If we can only have 6 people in our houses, how can we have 30 children in a classroom? It’s a reasonable question. But it’s not a contradiction; in fact, these measures are connected and coherent. The following explanation is a simplification, but illustrates the principle. 1/8
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It is reasonable to ask: why close restaurants and pubs if there are so few outbreaks associated with those environments? However, this is misreading and misinterpreting the data on outbreaks and clusters. 1/10
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It's impossible to express how impressed I have been by the professionalism, endurance and courage of
@CMOIreland
, but his qualities are captured in this message, full of care and tenderness, for an entire nation, and for those closest to him.
From today, I will be taking time out from all of my work commitments to be with my family.
I would like to thank everyone for their support, understanding and respect for my family’s privacy and would wish that to continue.
Continue to stay vigilant and look after each other.
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And so, 501 days after the SARS-CoV-2 viral genome sequence is published, and having happily waited until over 1.8m more vulnerable adults in this country were vaccinated, it is with joy and gratitude that today I got my COVID-19 vaccine. 1/5
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The last physical copy of the
@IrishTimes
to be delivered to the office before we closed on 13 March 2020, discoloured by the sun of two summers. 27 new cases, 70 in total, 6 in ICU. Little did we know what was ahead of us.
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Cases are growing, but from very low numbers. Our estimates of the rate of growth are very uncertain. Hold firm. We can suppress the virus again with simple measures: limit our contacts; physical distancing; hand hygiene, don't congregate indoors; wear a face covering.
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Closing the door on the ten happiest and most rewarding years of my professional life as President
@MaynoothUni
, privileged to lead this vibrant, diverse and scholarly community. A true public university. I look forward to the great things it will achieve in the years ahead.
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Stay home. 581 people in hospital with COVID-19 this morning, up from 255 on 24 December. Positive tests, cases and hospitalisations are doubling every 7-10 days. We can stop this, but it's essential that each and every one of us plays our part to turn the tide. Stay home.
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If a neurologist breezed in and confidently advised a change in the treatment of my asthma, I'd be polite but ask a respiratory physician. Public health, epidemilogy, virology and immunology are very different disciplines. Listen to the right expertise at the right time.
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New travel-related COVID-19 infections a grave concern. A surge seeded by travel is a risk to public health, to healthcare workers, to the vulnerable in our community. We can protect them by foregoing our holiday abroad. A useful question for any activity: luxury or necessity?
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92 new cases today. It's 59 days since
@hpscireland
last reported fewer than 100 cases (18 Mar, 74) and that was only 18 days after our first case. 9 days later we saw 300 per day. My thoughts are with those affected by COVID-19. This number gives us hope.
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Not the week we wanted, but the week we got. An increase in cases, but mostly in outbreaks; not much growth in sporadic cases / community transmission. What stands out is the extraordinary work of (exhausted) public health colleagues, managing these outbreaks, keeping us safe.
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One can argue that social distancing alone would have been enough to suppress the spread of COVID-19 in Ireland; but in w/b 20 March, the number of people in ICU was doubling every 3.5 days, and 4214 new cases were detected. It was no time for half measures, or experiments.
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Congratulations
@SimonHarrisTD
on your appointment as Minister for Higher Education, Research and Innovation; it was a pleasure to work with you as Minister for Health, and I look forward to working with you in this new role, which is vital to our recovery and our future.
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I've noticed
@ronanglynn
is pretty busy at the moment. If I can free up time I'd be happy to explain
@officialgaa
. A start. Games and training continue, the measures are designed to limit congregation, and limit mixing between households. And save lives.
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My father was one of 58115 live births in Ireland in 1936; there were 345 deaths from diphtheria. He faced a roughly 1 in 170 chance of dying of that disease. We had our last death in 1967, the year I was born.. A great reminder from
@ronan_glynn
of what vaccines have given us
News on
#vaccines
against
#COVID19
is very encouraging. Its timely to remember the fantastic impact that other vaccines have had over the last 200 yrs in Ireland - apart from clean water, vaccines have saved more lives than any other public health intervention
@HSEImm
@RCPI_news
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We need to limit the number of close contacts we have each day and each week. SARS-CoV-2 transmits through prolonged close contact. What do we mean by close? The virus is transmitted through direct physical contact or over short distances by expelled respiratory droplets. 1/17
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We end the week at an average of 270 cases per day, down from 350 last Sunday, 1200 six weeks ago. Your hard work means restrictions can be eased. The central phrase for me in the Taoiseach's speech: "Every contact counts". Limit contacts to a small group. Be careful. Be safe.
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98 cases. It's been 77 days since we had this many (22 May, 115). Then, cases were distributed across the country, and declining. Today, the cases are concentrated in growing outbreaks in three counties. It's tough but we had to act. We can, together, stop further transmission.
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The estimated prevalence of COVID-19 in Ireland, based on the cumulative number of cases over the last 14 days, is low: about 1 in 25,000 down from a peak of 1 in 650. Community cases about 1 in 40,000 down from 1 in 1,200. Let's be careful, as we open up, to keep it that way.
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It has been a difficult and disappointing week for many, as the rise to dominance of the delta variant has delayed plans for wider reopening; but the likely impact of delta is stark, and caution is well advised. 1/36
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I've been spending an exponentially increasing amount of time in this place in recent weeks
@roinnslainte
and
@HSELive
. A talented hardworking team helping you keep us all safe. Please stay home, keep your distance, wash your hands, self-isolate immediately if you have symptoms
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Yes, to be honest, this felt awkward. But we know there is increased risk of viral transmission on public transport. So let's wear face coverings* to protect others in enclosed spaces where safe distance cannot be maintained (*more stylish options available, apparently)
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Feeling optimistic as we approach the weekend. The average number of new cases per day stable, perhaps decreasing. We can, by limiting contacts, physical distancing, hand hygiene and face coverings, do many things, together, without transmitting the virus. Stay safe this weekend
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A crystal-clear explanation of the measures introduced last night, and the underlying rationale. The number of cases and pattern of transmission is a big concern, but concerted action now is the only path to safety
The number of
#COVID19
cases that we have now in Ireland is substantially more than we were seeing even just a few weeks ago.
On average over the past 5 days we have reported 96 new cases. Our 14 day incidence now stands at over 23 per 100,000. 1/12
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We face difficult decisions if we are to suppress again the spread of SARS-CoV-2, and different voices should be heard. However, such contributions should be grounded in the facts, and public health expertise and experience. This article is neither. 1/12
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My doctoral supervisor, and mentor, Professor Ronan O’Regan, MRIA, died yesterday morning. A remarkable man. He gave me so much, but more than anything the confidence I needed to become a researcher, and a network that befriended and guided me. I never thanked him enough. RIP
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Back in the office
@MaynoothUni
after 18 months working and teaching from home; we’re making final preparations for the coming academic year and looking forward to welcoming students back to campus. Learning together.
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Barely a moment in the last two weeks to look up from our COVID-19 epidemiology work on behalf of
@CMOIreland
, but what a privilege it has been to lead an exceptional team doing brilliant modelling, and to work with extraordinary public servants in
@roinnslainte
and
@HSELive
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I'm really pleased to be appointed Director-General
@scienceirel
. Science and engineering will help us shape a future that is healthier, sustainable, equal and inclusive.
@scienceirel
is key to our research and innovation system, it will be a privilege to lead this great agency.
Delighted that Professor
@PhilipNolan_MU
has been appointed Director General of
@scienceirel
from January.
Read my statement here:
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Dr. Mina, you have inferred a great deal about my knowledge and motivation from one tweet; fair enough, it may not have been my finest moment in pandemic communications. Nonetheless, a few points of clarification and response. 1/15
@President_MU
For an advisor to your government - you don’t appear to know what you are talking about
@President_MU
wrt rapid tests.
The comment adds nothing of benefit and further sows confusion.
You should be ashamed of your demeanor here.
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My term of office
@MaynoothUni
ends in August 2021. It has been my privilege to lead this wonderful institution, and extraordinarily rewarding, personally and intellectually. If you care for scholarship, people and ideas then this is the place for you.
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For the first time in 3 months we report improvements in levels of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Ireland. Case numbers decreasing for 10 days. It should encourage us to maintain our efforts, stay the course, suppress transmission, and get the level of infection as low as possible. 1/6
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The emergency response to a pandemic - speed trumps perfection on the way in, caution saves lives on the way out. We have effectively suppressed the virus, but model projections show what a second wave would look like if R rises above 1. Work by
@_jimduggan
@gleesonj
+ IEMAG team
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Good news. We were worried about test positivity, which seemed to have plateaued, but the 5-day average test positivity from public health laboratories has fallen from 8% to 6% in one week; and the positivity across all labs has been under 5% for 5 days (4.2% today)
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We have seen case numbers at this level and rising this rapidly only twice before: in March and in October. We have gone from a (5-day) average of 260 cases per day to 469 cases per day in one week. It's a cause for grave concern. Stay well. Stay safe. Stay home.
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First day as Director-General, Science Foundation Ireland. I look forward to working with Government, the SFI and SFI team, our many partners, and the wonderful talent of the research community, towards our vision: a global innovation leader in science and engineering research.
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We, as citizens, are tired and demoralised as the virus increases. We need leadership and solidarity. If you are questioning the decisions government must make, ask yourself a question: are you holding them to account, or spreading confusion and division for political advantage?
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Packing for some long distance cycle touring….1650km over 11 days…Dublin to Cork and then working my way down the French Atlantic Coast…a little anxious about the heat.
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No it’s not. It’s much more like pausing for a moment to check you have the right fire extinguisher before spraying an electrical fire. Good pharmacovigilance makes for high vaccine confidence in the medium-to-long term. 1/5
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We have a clear early warning. We gave the virus too many opportunities to spread, and have a sharp rise in cases, who became infected around 4-10 December. It's hard, but we can turn this around, stay well, and protect the vulnerable by cutting our contacts to a minimum. Now.
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This is impressive from
@hselive
and
@roinnslainte
. They worked hard to deploy contact tracing technology that fully addresses questions of privacy and surveillance. We now have a world-class tool for public health. It’s gratifying to see the rapid and extensive uptake. Sign up!
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We see further increases in numbers in hospital (673) and ICU (62) this morning. The rate of growth is a major concern and there will be further increases before we turn this around. A clear signal to all of us of the need to protect ourselves and each other by staying home.
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The idea of screening at airports for SARS-CoV-2 is problematic. RT-PCR is a diagnostic test, not a screening test. Given reasonable assumptions for sensitivity (85%) and specificity (98%), for every 50 cases we would detect only 30, miss 20, and generate 1000 false positives
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It's hard, unpopular even, to ask that we do more. We did so much to get from > 6000 cases per day to < 600. A small increase in mobility and contact has stalled our progress. We have to highlight this, and yes, encourage each other to do a little bit more to suppress the virus.
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Case numbers are rising rapidly (5-day average now 557 cases per day) and test positivity increasing (over 5% in the public health labs). Let's rethink our plans for Christmas: protect those we love by staying away, so we can be together, safely, next year.
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A few principles that help me understand the approach to containing the current outbreaks of COVID-19. 1. Outbreaks can grow explosively in some settings due to 'super-spreader' events, and have many cases by the time one case is detected.
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The move to Level 5 restrictions was a difficult decision for Government, and is very hard for people whose lives and livelihoods are most affected, but it was necessary to interrupt uncontrolled exponential growth of the pandemic. 1/5
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A lot of comment on the number and severity of cases being detected now compared to the peak of the pandemic; the commentary is underestimating both the effectiveness of surveillance in April, and the seriousness of the situation now. 1/13
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Simply put, if older adults starve the virus of opportunities to transmit (limiting our contacts and being careful) the young can have the higher numbers of contacts that classroom education requires; the sum total of all contacts for the population level remains low. 7/8
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I’ve cleared the decks (and the desk)
@scienceirel
, and off on my first proper holiday since 2019. It’s been a great first six months at SFI, but I’m really looking forward to the break!
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A privilege to be admitted Honorary Fellow, Faculty of Public Health Medicine
@RCPI_news
. Gratitude to IEMAG whose work I represented. Proud to share a conferring with
@marietcasey
@NICU_doc_salone
@louisehendrick
@ronan_glynn
and Abbey Collins. Dedicated to my parents.
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A landmark day. Our first doses of the vaccine are here: well done and fair wind to all involved. We also reported our highest daily cases: 1296. The first, a ray of hope. The second a reminder of the hard work needed to suppress the virus until the vaccine affords us protection.
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Can I get some snake oil with that? It makes for a great salad dressing with a pinch of salt and something acerbic. Stay safe when socialising outdoors over the next few weeks. Small numbers, distance, masks. These antigen tests will not keep you safe.
Weekend Super Savers! Pick up a pound of sausages, charcoal for the BBQ and antigen tests for €31 👀
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One fundamental message today. The virus is spreading. The rate of spread depends on the number of close contacts we each have per day. Sadly we need to reduce our social and recreational contacts to a minimum, in small groups, so we can be together for caring, learning and work.
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If we don’t, this virus will kill some of us, saturate our health system, close schools, and create a bigger shock to our economy. It’s devastating for those businesses affected, but we must act now, while targeted measures might still get the virus back under control. 10/10
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Outstanding work by
@AIRO_MU
(especially Justin Gleeson)
@OrdnanceIreland
and
@CSOIreland
. New
#COVID
-19 dashboard presenting
@hpscireland
and
@HSELive
data clearly and vividly to keep us alert. Watch for updates and new features.
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If the basic facts are so badly incorrect, how valid and useful is the opinion? 12/12
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We must protect the vulnerable in our communities from SARS-CoV-2. It is our responsibility more than theirs, because the primary means to protect them is for the rest of us to suppress transmission of the virus and keep circulating virus at very low levels. 1/8
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The exponential growth in SARS-CoV-2 infection in Ireland should make each and every one of us stop, think, and resolve again to do our part to suppress the virus, now and quickly. 1/7
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Green shoots! Small green square bottom right of heatmap shows
#VaccinesWork
- infection now at very low levels in older vaccinated cohorts. Given the pace of vaccination, if we stay careful and take the vaccine, this chart will progressively turn green in the coming months
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We are still making progress: look at the case count (7-day avg) each Monday since the peak. A very rapid early fall, slower now, but consistently down 10-15% per wk for the last 3 wks
11-Jan6345
18-Jan3192
25-Jan2011
01-Feb1232
08-Feb988
15-Feb861
22-Feb771
01-Mar654
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We are seeing very rapid increases in incidence in 16-18, 19-24 and 25-34 year olds. The rise in those aged 16-18 years is exceptional. Please do everything you can to stay safe, and to encourage and support those around you to stay safe too.
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A setback: case counts have stopped decreasing over the last 6 days. These infections probably occurred 2-9 Nov. What we do now determines where we will be in early December. It's hard, but focus on the basics: minimise our social contacts, keep our distance, hand hygiene, masks.
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When we started this phase of our COVID-19 response three weeks ago, we could not be certain that we, collectively, would get where we are today: R safely less than 1.0 and close to 0.5; daily case numbers less than 400 and decreasing at -5% to -7% per day. 1/3
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1151 people in hospital, 109 in ICU. We can turn this around. What we are doing now, and what we do over the coming weeks, will determine the course of some peoples lives, and the impact on our health services. Stay home, follow public health guidance, protect each other.
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We have made extraordinary progress over the month of January, but let’s
#holdfirm
. We still have weeks to go to suppress the virus and get the level of infection and case numbers as low as possible. We’ve shown we can do it; let’s keep it up. 1/10
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Last week was challenging for the people of Kildare, for the entire country, and for public health colleagues. 723 confirmed cases. The optimist in me sees this coming under control, with modest levels of community transmission. We can do this.
#HoldFirm
.
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We have had bumps on the road before, in July and November 2020. 11 Nov we had 369 cases a day, with incidence falling 7% per day - four days later we were at 416 cases per day, but we regained control and suppressed further to 250 cases per day by 29 Nov. We can do it again.
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We are in a third, and more dangerous, wave of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The second wave started in young adults; after several weeks delay we saw a much smaller increase in incidence in older persons. Now, incidence is rising early and rapidly in those aged 65 and older.
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A lot to reflect on and take on board in this piece. But to have “kept things simmering along at Level 3” (1000 cases/day) would have resulted in at least 1200 hospitalisations + 150 deaths a month; and things kept simmering tend to boil over.
@IrishTimes
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The number of people in hospital with COVID-19 is increasing; and it's earlier and faster in the third wave compared to the second. 360 in hospital today; the October peak was 354. It's really hard, but protect each other and our health services: cut your contacts to a minimum.
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Finally for tonight, on a very personal level, much love and congratulations to my partner Dr Sophia Pallaro, who successfully defended her PhD thesis today (better still, gave her examiners something original and stimulating to read). It's just .... great.
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Positive signs of an early partial protective effect of ongoing vaccination. Compare wk 4 (w/b 14 Jan) with wk 7 (14 Feb): cases down from ~8900 to ~5500 (38%); LTRC cases down from ~1250 to ~200 (84%); HCW cases down from ~1400 to ~280 (80%). Great work
@roinnslainte
@HSELive
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We know that in Dublin at least one in three cases are community transmission. Where is this happening? Wherever we mix socially: our houses, gyms, bars, restaurants. Sadly, unless we stop mixing in these settings, we know the disease will spiral out of control. 7/10
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The risk is even lower if (i) the level of disease in the community is minimised (ii) appropriate precautions are taken in schools. We can all contribute to the first, and teachers and principals have done extraordinary work to make schools as safe as possible. 8/8
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My warmest congratulations to Professor Eeva Leinonen on her appointment as the next President of
@MaynoothUni
, a great institution and a wonderful community, which it has been my privilege to lead for nearly 10 years. I wish her every success and good fortune in the role.
The Governing Authority of Maynooth University today appointed Professor Eeva Leinonen to be its next President effective from 1 October 2021.
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A lot to reflect on in this thoughtful and balanced thread, from a public health doctor with extensive experience and expertise. It’s really difficult to chart a path through this pandemic; we need to listen to, respect, support and resource the specialism of public health
The pandemic response in Ireland has understandably led to quite a bit of confusion and things are changing rapidly, from lockdowns to school closures. So I thought I’d write a thread on what might, and might not, work well in a country like Ireland with over 1000 cases per day..
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A privilege to be appointed by
@SimonHarrisTD
as CEO-designate of the new research funding agency amalgamating
@scienceirel
and
@IrishResearch
. A once-in-a-generation opportunity to drive a step change in public investment in research, and innovation.
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...for clarity on above, of course our colleagues in public health would track down the source if they had the resources to do so, but they don’t, and must prioritise the management of cases, outbreaks and onward transmission.
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85 cases is a signal to be very cautious. Many are in clusters that public health doctors are working hard to control. We know we can prevent onward transmission, so let's keep it up: self-isolate and ask for test if symptomatic, careful hand hygiene, maintain physical distance.
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An important update from
@CillianDeGascun
- preliminary data on the likely prevalence of the UK SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant in Ireland - detected in about 10% of samples. Thanks to the NVRL team of medical scientists for this work.
Further testing this week of
#SARSCoV2
samples dating from
#December
23rd to 29th has detected 9 additional
#UKvariant
cases in
#Ireland
. This brings the total number of cases identified
@nvrlucdireland
to 16 (of 169 tested to date) 1/2
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My sincerest thanks to the many colleagues who have done extraordinary work of international quality over the last 15 months, but with particular intensity over recent weeks, to provide valuable tools to support a critical and very difficult decision. 36/36
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We have breached 2000 cases per day, 2074 cases today, the first time we have had more than 2000 cases since 21 January. We have had more than 2000 cases on only 21 of the 532 days since we reported the first case here. 1/9
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The decision in October to adopt very strict public health measures, and our collective response, stopped a surge of infections and saved lives. If we compare our incidence and mortality with the average across the EU 27 and the UK, we see the difference. 1/7
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We should not ignore or dismiss the rising numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections. We monitor hospitalisations, intensive care admissions, and with great sadness, deaths, and we know where these numbers will go if we do not suppress transmission of the virus. 1/9
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We would like to go back and find out where people are getting the virus, but we don’t have the time or resources to pursue this academic exercise. 5/10
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A note of appreciation to the principals, teachers, staff, administrators, public health doctors, parents and students who have worked hard to make our schools as safe as possible and are looking forward to a full return to in-person schooling. 1/15
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We have lots of international evidence from better resourced systems on how the virus transmits: we know that social settings, including bars and restaurants, drive community transmission. 6/10
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What we need to do, and why we need to do it, from
@ronan_glynn
As
#COVID19
is on the increase,
@ronan_glynn
is appealing to you to decrease your social contacts by half for the coming weeks and explains why this is being asked. [For subtitles/Closed Captions, select "cc".]
#StaySafe
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While progress has slowed, we are still making progress. Cases last week down 8% on the week before, under 700 in hospital this morning; importantly the number of symptomatic cases is falling, while we see more asymptomatic + contacts. It's really hard, but we have to keep going.
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#VaccinesWork
. The increasing proportion of cases and hospitalisations in fully vaccinated people is in line with expectations, and tells us vaccines are working, are highly effective, and are preventing a very large number of infections and hospitalisations. 1/6
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Let’s not be fearful, or despair, but care for each other by committing again to do everything in our power to stop the virus spreading. It’s more than individual responsibility: who can you support, encourage or influence? “The sun rises in spite of everything”
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Great news here.
#VaccinesWork
. We saw “green shoots” a few weeks ago as incidence in those aged 85 and older fell below 10 cases per week per 100,000 population as vaccines took effect. We can now see this happen in those aged 65 and older as they become protected. 1/5
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This is why I limit my social contacts, avoid congregation and crowded spaces, wash my hands, keep my distance, wear a face covering. If I don’t, I constrain and risk the lives of valuable, valued, but vulnerable members of our society. 8/8
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How are we doing? The number of new cases per day remains high. It’s possible that incidence is rising more slowly in recent days, but it’s too early to tell. If we are starting to suppress the virus again, take this as encouragement to maintain and redouble our efforts. 1/7
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