Steven Wood
@GWInvestors
Followers
14K
Following
6K
Media
499
Statuses
3K
Founder of GreenWood Investors
š½š§³āļø
Joined November 2012
Going to weigh in on $TWTR only because I love pain. 1/ Today's reaction on $TWTR reminds me a lot of May 6, 2014. I was in Detroit. $FCAU unveiled its ambition to grow volumes from 4.4 million to 7 million. The stock closed down 11.7%. Sergio bought shares that day.
13
34
261
Working on finishing a white paper with @FactorInvestor and this chart always leaves me speechless no matter how we slice the data. #SkinInTheGame
26
62
250
When quality becomes the primary focus, returns get diluted. Value investing generates the returns that builds reputations. But after those reputations are built, a shift to quality ensues w/ less alpha. We detail some high profile case studies here.
11
41
189
So weāve moved from earnings multiples ā> EBITDA multiples ā> Sales multiples ā> now weāre on to TAM multiples. I have never used $SNOWās tech, but 0.84x TAM = musical chairs is almost over in the market.
13
20
175
This interview is fantastic, and amen to this quote: āWhat matters most is that in 10 yearsā time our brands are as desirable as they are today. Profit is a consequence of what we do well; it should never become a goal.ā -Bernard Arnault:
4
34
146
Just got off the $PTON call and Iām considering throwing in the towel on value and only going with momentum from here on out. The dopamine hit feels so good. ***This means momentum is over. Iāve almost capitulated.
11
8
143
Very few people (including me) remember this part highlighted in yellow below. Things ex-US don't need to be great, they just need to be a smidge above despair to do extremely well.
10
11
147
I get asked all the time what are my favorite investing booksā¦ Theyāre not even investing books. How about David Ogilvy on a big idea, doesnāt this sound eerily similar to a great investment? Sounds like WB on the punch card technique. Wise words for the frenzied trading world.
8
17
142
In the next couple of months, Iām hoping to have time to finish the book that started with an outline 2 years ago. 1 year ago I gave a talk with these 2 slides in Luxembourg, and curious, do you have any similar managers to share that I need to include?
10
15
124
Don't get me wrong, I'm SO happy to have Ackman involved with UMG, but PSTH is spending ā¬3.3B to acquire 10% of UMG, when $BOL.FP's entire market cap (using net shares) is ā¬5.9B and it's about to own 19% of UMG. So @ a slight discount to $PSTH's px & everything else is FREE
9
11
122
Last tweet on Sergio until my book comes out - I just finished all the material for his chapter. Honestly, screw the grim reaper, at his rate (17.8% compounded) he was only 3.7 years away from hitting a career 100x #SergioIsGod
4
18
119
I thought this was interesting about market leadership- only unknowns unknowns drive the ends of these leadership themes, but weāre getting closer. Still frustrating for value, is we can see this can still double on a relative basis. I think thatās probably a safe assumption RN
10
32
116
I know this seems to be simple but Elkannās view how the best value creators balance competing dualities is one of the most enlightened things Iāve ever heard, it applies everywhere and is actually Buddhist (non-duality). Heās compounding knowledge as quickly as his NAV.
6
15
118
Our longer-than-normal first quarter letter contains a bunch of confessions, a couple of ideas, explains why we've been in Portugal & Spain so much, and has a theory on the psychology of value creation. Click here to read.
8
6
107
Scott (@GreenhavenRoad) is perhaps the best example of a kickass investor who is relentless in his drive for performance but also incredibly patient. Honored to partner with him, despite me being "an under-performer," as he articulated in this letter.
3
6
102
If you still haven't read Railroader by @howardgreennews, buy it now. I broke my "only audible" rule for this one, well worth it. Hand delivering to my favorite CEO this week. I love how relentless he was, so did his shareholders.
5
5
103
Mini $BOL.FP #chartstravaganza. Allons-y! . 1 / $VIV.FP buying back ~1.5% shares / week at a stub enterprise value of. 0. In next 2 months, self-buyout via ORPA should launch.
4
14
103
$PDD +1% on a day where operating profit (+237%) beats by 89% speaks volumes about the lack of interest in anything Chinese. To most itās a āfraud.ā Well to us, itās a freight train. This is a Madrid sorting center 2 months ago, operating at Black Friday levels in March.
12
12
96
Our second quarter letter discusses what has been the largest factor driving performance lately- the notable gap between market expectations and reality. Read it here:
4
13
97
1/ Itās been just over a year since $LDO.IM shareholders, humbled us by electing all 4 of our director nominees to the board. As weāre buckling into the next phase of the plan, it felt like a good time to share observations from this journey that has exceeded all expectationsš§µ
4
9
89
Pretty incredible here, vacation rental bookings +20% Y/Y (not sequential!) in the most recent month. Air BNB would definitely not have guessed that when it issued the 10% paper 2 months ago. Also affirms OTAs saying travel is not a wish but a need
10
12
90
Itās been a couple weeks since BAML put this out, but I canāt get it out of my head. USD & equity market sucking the wind out of the world with a 3 standard deviation distortionā¦ and the herd keeps going the wrong way. š¦¤š¦¤š¦¤
8
14
89
I got a little personal in the Q4 letter and talk about reverse-engineering life for a mic drop at 66 just in cases. š¬ Race to 100x
5
6
87
After hearing the 22nd presentation about buying high quality compounders at a good price, I'm nearly ready to launch this puppy.
4
11
86
Just posted fresh research on spinoffs in collaboration with @FactorInvestor . Spoiler alert: returns from spinoffs are no longer categorically great, but when they work, they WORK. Read here:
2
21
80
Many watching this donāt realize $AMZN is simply arbitraging pockets of margin out of the chain- it handles urban high margin routes and gives low margin suburban/rural to USPS. Any smart postal carrier would differentiate pricing based on density. Few do.
2
7
79
Am always asked where we find ideas- we hunt everywhere. For instance, stumbled on this "most loved brands" survey, and there are some interesting mismatches in here between market perception and customer perception. Hard to find a better place to start.
2
10
78
There are a LOT of things on sale right now, $AML.LN is in our top 5 & agnostic to market rotations occurring. What other co. profit warns & goes up (yesterday) because it's so washed out? Letās take a (fast) lap šš. Aston Martin mini-thesisš§µ.
5
4
74
We posted our 31-page research on $TRIP and a 9-min video here. Come to Paris for a quick TRIP & Enjoy!
4
20
73
2023 letter to investors here. Updates on the 3 board mandates ($CTT.PT, $LDO.IM, $MEIP) plus updates on 2 longer term holdings, $NXE & $BOL.FP. Lastly discuss 2 new positions from 2023: $PDD & $RTO.
5
5
74
The world of luxury is very subjective, as is art (which is luxury), but Luxury Strategy does a great job demystifying the value drivers. Here's useful delineation of 3 categories often used as synonyms- clearly very different. Cc @couttsoncapital. Thank Sergio we inherited $RACE
4
14
71
āYour candle burned out long before your legend ever did.ā A sad day for achievers and builders around the world. #SergioIsGod
1
14
71
How to start a >$1T asset management firm: travel. A lot. Take your AirPods out. Meet people, hopefully a Builder. There are countless stories of transformational moments that took place on a plane or airport. This is in Sam Waltonās own words. ā¤ļø the humility.
2
10
69
Amazing how uncle Warren brought up $RACE 2x yesterday, and no one brings it up. The oracle is watching Maranello ššļø.
6
8
67
We posted recent research on $RR.LN on our site below. While we were at it, added notes on $TRIP, $EXO.IM and $TIT.IM. Hope it's helpful for those looking to be opportunistic right now. The registration is only to collab on diligence, we don't market.
11
7
68
For any aviation industry followers, we released some conclusions from a data set that took us nearly a year to build. Excited to share here-
4
11
67
š© is so intense in the world right now, I think we'd all do well to pause & remember what Sergio said as he was rescuing Chrysler from the abyss. Overcoming difficulty is the key to happiness. and value creation.šŖš»
2
3
65
Yeah discounts keep getting wider, yada yada yada. But now backing out the value of $VIV.PA, $BOL.PA is now a negative EV. An irreplaceable network of African ports & logistics business has. a negative value. The Chinese would certainly disagree with that appraisal.
5
11
66
Just posted the Q2 letter. Outlines irrationality from a new perspective, the fundamental growth of the portfolio and the signficant pent-up alpha we have on the eve of new investors coming in. We Ready.
5
4
66
In case you missed the BollorĆ© @TwitterSpaces (Twitter team - please add recording function!)- here were my take-aways. Once again, thanks to @off_the_run @FoxCastlehold, @ValueWolf for sharing the thoughts & intel.š§µ.
6
10
65
We just penned an article in conjunction with our research note on Ocado exploring "White Space" investments and how they are routinely undervalued. Read it here, and let us know if you have any favorite white space stocks!
1
10
66
1/ the next big trade seems almost too obvious that itās going to be a boring company / value revival. Iāve been debating with friends (@GreenhavenRoad @AboveAvgOdds @LaughingH20Cap @Dan_Roller @macrotwain) over the past couple of days, and most are skeptical, so hereās my case.
5
5
64
Our Q3 letter discusses how we've evolved our thinking about "special situations." Stock performance exceeds fundamental performance when companies can migrate up to a more positive market narrative. Mentions $SFOR.LN $PTON $EXO.IM $CTT.LS. Read it here:
3
4
64
Q2 Letter out- this one picks apart covid exposures & factor drivers. I explain why weāve chosen companies off the beaten path, yet remain exposed to many of the same drivers that make Big Tech great. Discusses $PTON $OCDO.LN $CTT.PT $TWTR $VRT $BOL.FP etc.
1
4
62
Weāll gladly take the other side of this trade, Grazie. JPM: āThe bubble of low volatility stocks vs value stocks is now more significant than any relative valuation bubble the equity market experienced in modern history.ā
3
15
60
Iām listening to Crossing the Chasm for the 1st time (better late than never?) and itās eery how much this parable resembles the $PTON story thus far. If they can make it through the chasm, a large āearly majorityā audience awaitsā¦
4
0
61
Loved @RobertIger's new book. There are a lot of hidden investment lessons in it, for instance he's more patient on story development & cares less about quarterly deadlines. For my book, I looked at film ROIC under his leadership: less films, bigger, more convicted bets,ā¬ļøROIC
1
2
59
Learning great investing from great families. Lessons from EXOR's 1st ever investor day this week.
2
6
59
Updated our retail disruption chart to include more retailers here - @ChrisPavese added the dollar stores. Will prob blog next week on this
2
14
58
$VIV.FP giving us a major Valentineās Day treat a day early. $UMG spin! Get it done!
3
3
59
Our 3rd quarter letter written by Chris is an entertaining look at two business dichotomies on both the long & short side of our portfolio. We're long pubs and short tourists.
1
4
57
We penned our thoughts on $WFM - $AMZN for all of you headed to emergency board meetings being called this weekend!
3
11
58
$TRIP monetization gap now less than 50% on mobile vs. desktop. Mobile app engagement = bye-bye $GOOGL paid traffic. Can't come soon enough.
1
16
57
Amazing, the Marelli purchase price is >30% more than the market cap of $FCAU when we first built the position in 2011-2012 and is a drop in the bucket now. This deal also proves that the value creative management didn't end with the heroic sweater man. .
Yes, this is a "big check" for @fcagroup:.#Fiat Agrees to Sell Parts Unit #Marelli to KKR's #Calsonic Kansei w @ManuBaigorri @kielporter @business @markets.
3
1
55
I often wish our fund was publicly traded and I could boost NAV per share by 50% by simply buying back stock. I guess weāll have to just be happy coinvesting with Elkann. Everyone long $FCAU or $RACE, this is going to outperform.
7
5
55
In a market full of land mines, nice to see a positive catalyst for once. Merci beaucoup, Vincent! $BOL.FP
4
0
56
Companies withdrawing guidance left and right have an incredible opportunity to never resume quarterly guidance. One of the biggest differentiators between builders & administrators is that founder-led & owner-led businesses shun quarterly guidance. cc @FactorInvestor
3
5
55
We penned a quick piece discussing auctions & the distribution of power. While relevant for many industries and companies, it's a portion of the analysis on $TRIP that's now available on our public research page.
3
11
55
Just wrapping up my chapter on Sam Walton, and I realize I basically nearly plagiarized him in our quarterly letter. š¬ Amazing how you sort of become what you study. Also highlights the importance of checking Glass Door before you invest in anything. It's REALLY important.
3
7
54
While many words & frustrations have been published on the investor shift from active to passive funds, we are aware of none that examine the psychological shift that occurs as investors load into ETFs. We study worrying evidence on the trend in this post.
8
10
54
Tomorrow we're going to open up a portion of our Superforecasting trial to friends and readers on a top position of ours. In order to prepare for it, we put together a few of our favorite highlights from the conversation with @PTetlock this September.
0
1
53
On my >30th iteration of this white paper on owner operators, and I'm surprised that so many of these data sets have never been put out. Like this one - insider ownership of the S&P 500 has been more than cut in half since CapIQ records start, while SBC is flat / up š¤¦š»āāļø
4
4
48
Learn from our mistakes here - where we discuss process improvements and a few investment lessons learned. In short - don't be a boiled frog.
1
3
52
Tonight's space w/ @AndrewRangeley & @SleepwellCap was my 1st- so good it made me a smidge proud to own the clown car that fell into the goldmine. Posting a few notes on our research page on $BOL.FP & $VIV.FP- trying to find more with deeper UMG color.
2
4
52
EXOR's cost of debt now negative for a part of the capital structure, meanwhile the cost of equity (thanks to the discount) >15%. Makes a ton of sense - good job Mr. European Market. #FTW $EXO.IM
4
10
51
Europe: consensus short. Also: trough multiple. Not a bad comboā¦
3
3
49
If you're into behavioral economics (should be 99% of friends on here), give yourself the gift of listening to @rorysutherland this Friday at Nudgestock. I have been physically a couple times, but now it's digital & far larger. 14 hours of bliss here:
4
7
47
A lot of weirds things happening, but this is actually not even surprising at this point. MAGAF eating the world.
7
15
49
Q3 letter up- discusses defense, offense & conviction. Includes a preview of a white paper on owner operators & commentary on $CTT.PT, $TWTR, $SDRY.LN, & $PTON (just asking for trouble).
1
1
50
Inspired by the research report we put out this morning (to investors) on $TRIP, we wrote a (hopefully) controversial article defending thesis creep: a monster that haunts investors' nightmares. Read "The Wandering TRIP" here:
4
5
47
Our latest note on $RR.LN is here - be sure to manipulate the fundamental drivers after you read the note (part of our superforecasting trial). And Happy Thanksgiving!
4
3
49
After a month of business travel, finished the quarterly letter from paradise. Guilty šš»āāļø. Read it here-
1
5
49
At $RR.LN investor day where people are still doubting Ā£1B FCF target, whereas they just laid out a path to get north of Ā£3B in 4 years, in line with what we started saying in 2015. what multiple do you put on that business which looks a lot like SAAS?.
4
5
48
Inspired by a talk given by @ExploreCookson CEO Adam Sebba last month, of which the full text is included in the post, we penned an article discussing the major consumption shift from stuff to experiences. Relevant for $TRIP, $LYV and $RACE
2
14
47
Every person entering this business for the first time should watch this. itās not as easy as Uncle Warren makes it look. but it sure has incredible outcomes & benefits. From HBO Hacks
1
8
43
Our much delayed quarterly letter is oriented around timelines: both short & long, and styles: both value & growth. Discusses current environment as well as $CTT.LS, $APPS, $TWTR, $SFOR.LN, $BOL.FP, $PTON, $VRT and of course. SPV2.
6
0
46
Thanks to my colleague Kveta, we conducted the first large-scale study correlating customer satisfaction to stock price performance. This article is the 1st in a 6-part series on how ESG fails to adequately define sustainability. The customer matters most.
4
6
45
Great article on $VIV.FP bull thesis, @EvermoreGlobal! IMO, UMG carve out not a matter of if but when.
1
6
45
Our very delayed quarterly letter "Building Gamma" talks about significant evolutions at our firm, our largest position, and our portfolio. It can be summarized by the Maserati Super Bowl commercial: "We have prepared. Now we strike."
3
4
44
In my head I remind myself daily of this, and just as a PSA, remind yourself right now that, āmediocrity is not worth the effort.ā -Sergio.
2
10
38
That was fast, $BA seeking "tens of billions" in credit, likely because >$20 billion in customer deposits can now be refunded thanks to the Max non-delivery. It's clear $BA is the $AIG of this crisis (with -95% left), but what's the next $LEH? (for millennials, that was Lehman).
1
7
42
3 reasons why we think $TRIP was nearly bought out. Thankfully, our Barron's piece & stock being up may prevent it.
6
8
39
Was chatting with an old friend on $EXO.IM yesterday and he made a good point, the old buy 3 get 1 free is now most relevant to $FCAU. It's definitely worth more than zero (at least Jeep and Ram) but I don't mind owning it for free. 38% discount to NAV, and FCAU is 38% of NAV.
5
2
41
Given $BOL.FP and $VIV.FP reported earlier this week - took the chance to update the NAV and stub charts. Ex VIV/UMG, stub nears it's all time negative valuation just as most of this NAV converts over to cash. Fire up that share consolidation already! (note, uses net shares)
1
4
41
Best part of Sergioās memorial was that half the attendees were assembly line workers in their uniforms. So glad Iām on the record in the FT defending his reputation with employees. who all have jobs today thanks to him. #SergioIsGod
1
5
41
Our year end letter discusses $CTT, $LDO.IM and lessons weāve taken in as weāve had to adapt to current marketsā¦
3
2
42
Capital allocation, responsibility, humility. words you would never associate with a mining company. Found a uranium unicorn in @NexGenEnergy_. check out parts of our CEO conversation here, and major thanks to @JekyllCapital for upgrading the chat!
0
3
39
Kept the quarterly letter shorter in Q1, we have our heads down on some things which weāll be sharing in the relatively near future. Talks about where and how weāve been reallocating capital.
9
5
39
$UMG revenues growing >20% & margins approaching >20% threshold. The fun is just beginning. Can't wait for this to be stand-alone!
3
0
38
Hereās an interesting way to look at the $RR.LN current share price: using competitors' multiples on the Defense business + Power Systems, the civil aerospace division, with an installed base of 14k engines, is worth -Ā£0.95 per share (-Ā£1.49 on Friday). Incredible.
4
4
39
This is excellent, @SamWalkers - just ordered your book! Why the future belongs to āchallenge-driven leadersā
2
6
39
Just posted our quarterly letter on our site - link below. Took almost a day to come up with this chart underlining the whole letter, but it was totally #worthit. The slope steepener.
6
1
39
Yeah but NOW we have recurring revenue models = āthis time is differentā¦ā
0
3
39
If you care about valuation & downside protection, you're likely being forced to go global, where you can probably throw a dart. US can't actually go to 100% of the global index, so while it has all the momentum today, the days are numbered. Just sayin'
S&P vs. rest of world ratio now 3.8 standard deviations above the inception-to-date average. YTD +1.0 standard deviation. Keep calm and carry on.
2
4
38
$BOL.FP getting ready to fire up its buyback at a record 75% discount to NAV. Every share repurchased has a 4x immediate ROIC. It has cash + untapped credit lines equal to the market cap today, so theoretically, it could buy 99.9% of shares outstanding. Punch it.
5
3
38
Our Q3 letter which asks, who's on the other side of the trade? A useful question to ask, esp. w/ mkt robotization.
4
6
37
About to drop a note to our investors on our Exor, and it just staggers me that Mary (with Buffett support) rejected this proposal from $FCAU. On the eve of the FCA-RNO deal, the economics are staggering. The share price result has also been staggeringly disappointing for $GM.
2
2
38