Bree
@DofConsequence
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Only in my pain, did I find my will. Only in my chaos, did I learn to be still. Only in my fear, did I find my might. Only in my darkness, did I see my light.
Joined May 2008
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I'm kind of 😡 that some accounts I rely on to have accurate data jumped on the rumor mill yesterday. It caused me to waste a bunch of time writing irrelevant tweets.
From now on, posting rumors gets you hit with the naughty stick. Unless you like it, in which case you won't.
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1/ I haven't written about the Svatove-Kreminna axis because the fog of war is thick. Now that 🇺🇦 is knocking on Kreminna's door, we're getting clarity. Here's a short 🧵 explaining what's going on, & why it's a big deal.
h/t
@AndrewPerpetua
@BruckenRuski
@Suriyakmaps
for maps
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@RALee85
I'm waiting to see Ukraine hit Moscow. It doesn't have to be big. The psychological impact would be similar to what Germans felt in WW2 the first time Berlin was bombed. I don't think it will happen, but it would be awesome.
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14/ On the south (if they continue to advance) they put Russia in the position of having their backs forced against both banks of the river. That's a terrible tactical situation, and would almost certainly result in Russia retreating from one or both banks.
/end 🧵
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5/ Why is Ukraine throwing everything into Svatove-Kreminna despite devastating casualties in Bakhmut? Because taking Svatove & Kreminna is a game changer. Let me explain why. (Hint: It's all about logistics.)
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4/ You CANNOT understand what's happening on the ground unless you take bridges, waterways, rail lines, and other critical infrastructure into account.
Why is 🇷🇺 hammering Bakhmut) aside from the mines)? To try to force Ukraine to redeploy from Svatove-Kreminna axis to Bakhmut
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2/ The first thing to understand is that this war is all about logistics. Ukraine's strategy has been to interdict GLOCs (ground lines of communication, aka supply lines), until 🇷🇺 is forced to retreat or die. That applies to Kharkiv too. It was only possible because of Kherson.
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13/ One other point: Today,
@Suriyakmaps
reported Ukrehas made gains north / northeast of Bilohorivka in Luhansk. If confirmed, it means Ukraine is now advancing up both banks of the Siversky Donetsk River. On the north, they're threatening Kreminna with encirclement.
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12/ I don't know which option they'll choose, but either way, if they capture Svatove & Kreminna soon then they'll be in an excellent place to consolidate gains and weaken Russia's supply lines while they prepare for a spring offensive.
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3/ Most people look at Google maps and wonder why Ukraine doesn't so things that seem obvious. The reason is usually because they're looking at the wrong map.
@BruckenRuski
tracks bridges & other infrastructure on the second map in his bio. Follow him if you don't already.
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10/ When Ukraine captures Svatove and Kreminna, it will give them a foothold to put Starobil's'k under fire control. (Technically it's within range of HIMARS now, but they can't just drive them to the front line.)
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9/ Ukraine has been hammering that defensive line ever since, all the way from Kup'yans'k down to Svatove & Kreminna. They haven't broken through yet, but they did put Svatove under fire control almost immediately. That has left Starobil's'k as the primary way to resupply 🇷🇺
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11/ Once that happens, Ukraine has options. They could move east to take Starobil's'k, or they could hammer that GLOC into oblivion like they did at Kherson, while attacking another section of the line.
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1/4 This is how RUMINT spreads. You take one or two tweets that are true and are great news. But that's not enough the big accounts. It has to be even better.
Tweet 1: An Iranian drone is downed or crashed intact. This is TRUE (as far as I know).
#UkraineRussianWar
🕶️⚡️ Николаев. Пиздец шахидам. В руки наших специалистов попал неповрежденный образец дрона. Думаю "кулибины" быстро поймут немудреный алгоритм работы и придумают способы противодействия.
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6/ Before the Kharkiv counter-offensive, there were 3 main GLOCs to supply the front around Lysychans'k and Severodonetsk. They were Kup'yans'k, Svatove, and Starobil's'k. Svatove & Starobil's'k were also used to repair damaged equipment.
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7/ During the Kharkiv offensive, Ukraine captured Kup'yans'k. That forced Russia to retreat from Izyum, because there wasn't a way to supply it. (Izyum was supplied by roads from Kup'yans'k, by the way, not rail).
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8/ The next logical target was Svatove. There are some indications that Ukraine *almost* routed them past Svatove into Starobil's'k, but Ukraine had to stop and consolidate their gains. That gave Russia an opportunity to setup a new defensive line west of Svatove.
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@mtracey
Fun fact: Good leaders let the generals run the military while they (gasp) focus on myriad PR initiatives.
Bad leaders run things themselves and inevitably fluff it up.
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@nolanwpeterson
That's what happens when you start the war with few precision weapons then use almost all of them on civilian targets.
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@YaKiss7
@Nrg8000
@Militarylandnet
The surprise isn't that they're still resisting, it's the area of Mariupol are resisting in. Everyone thought they had no armor and were fighting in the city. Instead they apparently have armor and are in some suburbs. It's going worse than I thought for Russia.
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@NicksNikon
@DefenceU
@INTERPOL_HQ
I don't think they're going to have to worry about entering another country again. They won't be leaving Ukraine unless it's as a prisoner or in a body bag.
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"Ukrehas" should have been "Ukraine." Damn you autocorrect.
13/ One other point: Today,
@Suriyakmaps
reported Ukrehas made gains north / northeast of Bilohorivka in Luhansk. If confirmed, it means Ukraine is now advancing up both banks of the Siversky Donetsk River. On the north, they're threatening Kreminna with encirclement.
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1/3 Random thought: Ukraine has put the Biden administration in the position of having to support them as long as Ukraine fights. Anything less would be a political disaster. The 2024 election will heat up soon. I think we'll see lots of arms to Ukraine this spring and summer.
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1/ This thread 👇 really took off, so I want to address a few points people have raised. They are: 1) why doesn't 🇺🇦 go for Troits'ke; 2) is the 🇷🇺 offensive at Bakhmut really designed to pull 🇺🇦 troops away from Svatove-Kreminna; 3) what about other supply lines into Luhansk? 🧵
1/ I haven't written about the Svatove-Kreminna axis because the fog of war is thick. Now that 🇺🇦 is knocking on Kreminna's door, we're getting clarity. Here's a short 🧵 explaining what's going on, & why it's a big deal.
h/t
@AndrewPerpetua
@BruckenRuski
@Suriyakmaps
for maps
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@IAPonomarenko
Ukraine can just tell Putin that the residents of Belgorod Oblast held an independent forum and requested Ukraine support their vote for independence. I'm sure Putin will be fine with that. He's all about protecting freedoms, right? 😎 (/s)
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4/4 John then retweets it. My assumption is that he didn't check the source because he and Chuck know each other. He should be more careful.
And that's how RUMINT spreads.
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@HowlCrypto100k
@kamilkazani
If you think America fought for 20 years and pulled back in shame then you know nothing about history, tactics, strategy, or anything else.
America's goal of creating a democracy that could fight the Taliban failed. Their military did not fail. Not even close.
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@WxSynopsisDavid
@TrentTelenko
Why do people keep spreading this ridiculous take? Did we send our worst vehicles and troops to Normandy on D-Day so they could loosen up the Germans? No.
The Russian military sucks. We all bought into their propaganda, myself included. We were wrong. It's that simple.
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I'm 🇺🇸, and I'm proud in many ways about how our government has aided 🇺🇦 in 2022. But one day, when the true cost in 🇺🇦 lives is known, there will be a reckoning. We should have done the right thing in 2014. Enough is enough. Just send 🇺🇦 what they need to reclaim their land.
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@pmakela1
Yeah they've been counter attacking for several days. They're getting stronger while the Russians get weaker, thanks to all the captured equipment. I think there's a legitimate chance they'll route the Russians around Kyiv. If they do, it's game over.
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@noclador
Possible sequence of events:
Blinken: HI, Zelensky
Zelensky: Sup. Got any weapons?
Blinken: << hands missile to Zelensky >>
Zelensky: << blows up Druzhba pipeline >>
Germany: We have decided out of the goodness of our hearts and for no other reason to sanction Russian oil.
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@ChristmasFreud
@KyivIndependent
If this is indeed the deputy commander of the 41st combined arms army, then he will be the 2nd highest. Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky, the former commander of that army, was killed by a sniper last week.
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@Blueelectron4
@EliotHiggins
Not only did they get obliterated, but any that were in range of shrapnel will be effed up for a while. They'll have to check every inch of the frame, test all the avionics, etc. The shock wave can do a number too if they're too close.
Hits on airbases are awesome 😈😈❤️
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@DarthPutinKGB
's book is amazing. I scored 100 on the chapter 1 quiz 💪. I am a good little tankie.
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@IAPonomarenko
Use Google folks. The pilot is real. He was reported KIA in March. No mention of him being the Ghost of Kyiv until a few days ago. I didn't see it from any Ukrainian sources. Looks like it started with a tabloid and for some reason The Times picked it up.
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1/3 If I hear "🇺🇦 can't get F-16s cause maintenance" one more time, I'm going to scream. Yes, 🇺🇸 trains support crews for 18 months. That's why some have suggested 🇺🇦 use contractors who are experienced and still proficient. There are thousands available.
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1/ I agree. Here's how I feel about Abrams, F-16s, and everything else Ukraine has requested. There are people far more qualified than me to discuss the technicalities. The problem is, they disagree. So I say, let Ukraine be the tie breaker. Here's why. (a short 🧵)
@DofConsequence
Can’t wait to see your threads on combined arms.
All this crap about Abrams is a distraction.
Ukraine will be most effective when they’ve reached a balance between, IFV’s, Tanks, MLRS, and combined maneuvers. Really think F-16’s would s what completes the package
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@cyberslooth75
@Arslon_Xudosi
No, the first group of trainees is already back in Ukraine along with about half the howitzers. That's per the Pentagon. I'm sure they aren't announcing it until equipment has reached its destination. They're probably lagging the info by at least a week.
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3/4 Then it's picked up by Chuck's RUMINT mill. He also links the source, but he changes the claim. In his version, the technology has ALREADY been reverse engineered,which is WHY Ukraine is able to interdict 80-85% of the drones.
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@HerrOafScholz
@ChuckPfarrer
It's even more funny that they think they can manage river crossings.
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@RALee85
Fun fact: the lifespan of that bomb after impact is almost exactly as long as the lifespan of a VDV paratrooper after they exit the helicopter.
🌻🌻🌻🏃♂️🏃♂️🏃♂️ 🚁
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@IAPonomarenko
The wording from both Ukraine and US is super cagey. I think Ukraine got some new toys that they don't want the Russians to know about. At least I hope so.
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@JapsonFrank
@UAWeapons
They're trying to get anti-aircraft on it. The Moskva was a big part of their air defense in the region, and now its missiles are part of the giant aquarium under the sea. So, they keep going to Snake Island and keep getting blown up.
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@trbrtc
@UAWeapons
If those photos are a week old, then Russia is much more screwed than I thought (and I already thought they were pretty screwed).
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@CovertShores
@detresfa_
@AuroraIntel
@AlexLuck9
@COUPSURE
@sbreakintl
@mupper2
@hoje_no
@samlagrone
@CavasShips
Amphibious landings under fire are incredibly difficult to pull off. They're some of the most complex operations. If that's what's happening, I predict it will not end well...for the Russians.
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@JayinKyiv
And what exactly do they think that bombing an American Embassy would have solved 🤦🏼♀️. 90% of the support they have in America would evaporate over night. America would do some sort of limited military response.
Everything would be fine, just not for Russia.
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@SMilesi81
@experementsfor1
@Carnage4Life
I think it's genius too. Syntax highlighting confuses me. When I print my code out in black and white it makes so much more sense.
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3/3 A negotiated peace would work politically (for Biden), but I don't see Ukraine accepting that (nor should they), even if Putin offered it. Support for Ukraine is strong in America, so a total victory for Ukraine is a political win for Biden. Fingers crossed that I'm right 🤞
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@majvan_
@AndrewPerpetua
@BruckenRuski
@Suriyakmaps
If the trains are amphibious, sure. Russia's supply lines are more fragile than most realize. The northern front is supplied through Starobil's'k, and most of the rest is trucked along the M14. Some comes from Crimea (more will come from there once the bridge there is repaired).
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@mean_nothink
@Osinttechnical
Those silly Poles, leaving their Migs unlocked with the keys in the ignition. 😎
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@mhmck
I don't think the Russians realize yet what a bad spot they're in. They brought troops down to Izyum using the highway east of Kharkiv. Ukraine now controls part of that highway. That makes it harder for Russia to retreat and opens the possibility of cutting off the Izyum salient
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@kylesellers
@PokerPolitics
American journalists can and do go over there and embed with troops, and the BBC does a lot more. That's not the point, though. The point is that there are a TON of Ukrainian media embedded with their troops--Flynn just doesn't believe them.
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Hitler - a monster who killed up to 1.6 million 🇺🇦 Jews
Stalin - a monster who killed 3.5-5+ million Ukranians
We in the West just remember the former. We're quick to judge Ukranians who fought for the Nazis, but slow to remember that most wanted to kick out Stalin then Hitler.
It's unbelievable how dumb and reality-defying propaganda can be.
It's based on and spread via incredible ignorance, lack of understanding of basic facts of general knowledge from the secondary school curriculum, and incredibly shameless display of the Dunning-Krueger effect.
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@VsimPohuy
This has absolutely nothing to do with Biden, and everything to do with hardcore right-wingers who are controlled by Putin or Trump.
Biden could make his case all day long to the American people, but it wouldn't matter. We're not the ones voting on the bills.
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@VsemPohuy
And any time someone says that this crisis is America's fault, remind them that America voiced opposition to the EU's reliance on Russian natural gas starting with Reagan and ending with Biden. Even the Trump administration opposed Nord Stream 2.
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@RALee85
To those claiming it's junk, the 300 is designed for small targeted strikes with minimal collateral damage. That's a feature, not bug. Also, it appears it did hit its target. It detonates its warhead like a shotgun blast as it strikes. They hit the bunker.
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2/4 It's retweeted in English by
@CasualArtyFan
, and it confirms the Google auto translation of the original tweet. This is also TRUE (as far as I know), and the source is linked.
Iranian Shahed-136 Loitering Munition captured mostly intact today in Ukraine. While they’ve been intercepted 80-90% of the time, reverse engineering one will help UA better understand how to defeat the few that get through.
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@JenMcPherson55
@RALee85
How is it sad? The VDV and GRU have committed war crimes in Ukraine and Syria for years. He was at *best* complicit in them.
It is sad that his daughter lost her dad, but he helped cause a lot of daughters to lose dads, and a lot of dads to lose daughters. I won't agreed a tear.
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Here's a crazy thought: We could have spent the last 6 months training Ukrainians and setting up the infrastructure for Abrams instead of mansplaining to Ukraine why they don't need them.
If true -and I believe it is- it will take significant time to not just train the crews & units (as stated in the article) but also even more time to “set” logistics & support infrastructure. This is part of long-term plan to help transform Ukraine’s Army.
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@NOELreports
I don't think it signifies anything new. They say this stuff every now and then because it gives Tucker Carlson and other tankies more excuses to call for Ukraine's surrender--I mean, to "negotiate"
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@KyivIndependent
It was a little concerning when he threatened Lithuania, because there was a small chance he would gamble that NATO wouldn't respond for such a small country (they would). But threatening London... nobody believes that.
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2/3 If 🇺🇸 pulls support, 🇷🇺 will eventually win. If it turns into a stalemate, 🇺🇸 has to continue to support through at least 2024. Open-ended support isn't sustainable, so the best option for Biden is to help Ukraine achieve victory as soon as possible. Their futures are linked
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@dubcave
@LucasFoxNews
They said he had a heart attack. Heart attacks in Russia are weird. You can get them 5, 6 or sometimes 7 times in a row. The attack usually happens with a knife. It's a very strange phenomenon.
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@TrentTelenko
@RALee85
My guess: after 9/11 there was a shortage of Arabic speakers in the intel community and HUMINT in the Middle East. We went all in with shifting our focus from Russia to the Middle East & China. I don't think we ever recovered. Maybe we will now.
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Pentagon: "Hey world, just want to let you know that Russia has taken 200k casualties. Have a nice weekend."
Twitter: "Look at the balloon!!!!!"
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@tomekplewa
@konrad_muzyka
No, the situations are in no way similar. Ukraine bypassed Balakliya, but left some troops behind to pin down the defenders until they fled or surrendered. They took Lyman through hard fighting in the surrounding villages. The campaigns are different in every way imaginable.
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@MaroonedUSA
@Horesmi
This is Liza. She was 4 years old. She didn't have a choice on whether to be in a war zone. The monster in the video above did. Now Liza's dead. I suggest you save her picture and look at it every time you have the urge to feel sorry for the Russians.
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@KyivIndependent
I used to serve in the U.S. Army. They told us we fought for freedom. We rarely did. Now, we have a chance to use our military in the way it was meant: to stop an aggressor that is fighting a war of aggression against democracies. And what do we do? Nothing. 😡😡😡
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@JughaFedayi
@RALee85
Oh it's a big score. They just made it harder for Russia to move troops to the Eastern front.
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@KyivIndependent
Is it just me or does it seem like the U.S. & UK got tired of waiting on EU countries to do the right thing and arm Ukraine? I'm glad that Canada, the U.S., & the UK decided to be on the right side of history.
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1/ Yesterday, the New York Times wrote that 🇺🇸 intel believes 🇷🇺 KIA/WIA are approaching 200k. This confirms Ukraine's estimates--a topic that has faced serious scrutiny. But what about air losses? In this 🧵I'll explain why 🇺🇦's estimate is reasonable.
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@WarObserver14
@Osinttechnical
The only message it's sending is, "We're out of tanks."
There's no grander message or symbology behind it. They're just getting their asses kicked. It's really that simple.
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@GlasnostGone
@OSINT88
Sure. And the Tvir fire was an accident. As was the propellant supplier burning down. As was this dam flooding. All within about 36 hours. Russia is sure accident prone lately.
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@KofmanMichael
Michael has been dead accurate about everything as far as I know, so I trust him. The only thing I'm skeptical of is that Russia still has time. I've read a few of the accounts of fighting written by Russian soldiers. If they're accurate, attrition is higher than we realize
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1/ Today I tried to review
@DarthPutinKGB
's book "How to Tankie: The Anti Imperialist's Guide to the Modern World," but Amazon wouldn't let me--probably because I ran out of adult accounts and added myself as a teen. I'm not a teen so I'm reviewing it here
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18/ The closest recent comparison is Vietnam, but we at least had air parity, if not superiority. We'd have to go back to Korea to find a situation that was comparable to Ukraine's. Yet we think we know what they need better than they do?
Just give them the tanks.
/end 🧵
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@_Z__
@TrentTelenko
@RALee85
Some serious copium. His claim is that Russia is *choosing* to fight a ground war without air support, because (supposedly) they planned to do that against the U.S.
It's absurd. Russia doesn't have air superiority because they can't achieve it, not because they don't want it.
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@joeys312
@kaitlancollins
Nope. And he shouldn't have to, because the U.S. would end up fighting Russia if they steam rolled Ukraine. Putin was open about moving on to other countries. Europe hasn't invested enough in defense, so we'd end up fighting WW3 for them. We owe Ukraine, they don't owe us.
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@viau_bam
@wartranslated
He's a war criminal who started this whole mess. He thinks Russia isn't going far enough. He sees Mariupol and says, "Cool, that's how it's done." He also thinks mass mobilization will fix their problems, so he's not as smart as he thinks. But he is right about Bakhmut.
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1/2 This is exactly right. Unlike many, I'm not convinced this war will lead to the collapse of 🇷🇺 or the fall of Putin. Maybe it will, but I think it's just as likely that they will frame defeat as victory
That is exactly how they will claim "victory" in Ukraine even if they are kicked back to 1991 borders.
"We prevented a NATO invasion on RU territory by stopping them already in Ukraine, once again our heroic army have stopped a Nazi opponent trying to destroy Russia."
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@ChuckPfarrer
The only thing that would make this better is if the rumors of the TikTok Battalion getting taken out are true.
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@KyivIndependent
@AnnaMyroniuk
Don't feel sorry for him. Every soldier can make the choice to disobey an unlawful order. Many are even awarded it for it later. 21 is old enough to make that choice. I went into the military at 18 and I wouldn't have murdered a civilian.
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Pro-tip: Never argue with trolls, and never insult them. Bait them into insulting you over and over. That will get them shadowbanned. It takes a while if they have a lot of followers, but smaller accounts will get slapped with one pretty quickly.
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@kamilkazani
Great thread. Also, "Ghost soldiers" don't get a lot of attention, but the rumor is that Russian units have a lot of them. If true, Russia has fewer soldiers in Ukraine than we think. How much fewer is anyone's guess.
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@DesdeEUaSV
@RALee85
I highly doubt the Chinese military is any more competent than the Russian one. They're both very good at beating up people who can't fight back. But against a western military? Not so much..
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15/ The point is this: 🇷🇺 logistics are in a mess. Repairing the Crimean 🌉 will help, but they're still forced to transport ammo & supplies by 🚚 through miles of partisan activity. Starobil's'k makes it much easier to supply the northern front. Losing it will hurt.
/end 🧵
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@wartranslated
So they're saying that it's not their fault that they retreat, it's the fault of the Ukrainian tank crews who allegedly surrendered.🤔
Sure, that makes sense. All good armies retreat from the people surrendering to them. 🙄
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@clivelatt
@AseyevStanislav
Especially since anyone who replaces Putin will probably be someone who was part of this fiasco. If they withdraw troops (including previously occupied territories), great. They still can't be allowed to remain in power.
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@HorstvonHorst1
@DefMon3
It can't be the HIMARS, because Russia has destroyed 18 out of the 4 Ukraine received! /s
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@igorsushko
This morning I thought the Tvir fire was a coincidental but unrelated accident, but there's no way that both of these facilities were randomly destroyed within hours of each other. Sabotage is a much more likely explanation.
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@Flash43191300
Looks like that bottom of the bin ammo doesn't work as well as the top shelf stuff. Maybe they shouldn't have wasted it all on hospitals and shelters housing kids.
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