David Kudla
@David_Kudla
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CEO & CIO of Mainstay Capital Management, LLC. Tweet content is not investment advice. For personal advice, contact MCM. Retweets & Likes are not endorsements.
Grand Blanc, MI
Joined June 2012
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Stocks look fine now. I think I will go wading back in now… Damn!
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This is when it all went south. Jerome Powell mistakenly heard that markets were higher and he proceeded to read a greatest hits of hawkish comments, including comments that were in direct contradiction to the FOMC official statement released earlier.
The pivotal moment in
#Fed
press conference:
When (incorrectly) told the market had reacted positively, Jerome Powell seems frustrated and lists ONLY reasons why this is the wrong interpretation.
Very telling for
#stocks
.
$QQQ $SPY
#macro
#inflation
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Capital markets behavior in a nutshell
“In Brazil, a group of people doing CrossFit passed by outside a restaurant, but those eating thought they were running away from something and decided to run away with them”
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When the
#Fed
uses the Fed Funds Rate to tighten, they put the strain on Main Street. When they use the balance sheet, they put the strain on Wall Street. Guess which one they have been using?
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More capital flowed into global equities in the past year than the total of all previous 19 years combined. If you were wondering where all that Fed liquidity ended up that was created over the past 20 months, there’s your answer.
Just to put things into perspective: Global inflows into equities have surpassed $1tn in the past year, exceeding the combined total from the past 19 years, Goldman has calculated.
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Second worst start to a year in history for the S&P 500 Index. This is a generational moment for stocks and bonds performing so badly together in 2022.
The S&P 500 is down 16% in the first 88 trading days of 2022, the 2nd worst start to a year in history. $SPX
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Like it or not, believe it or not, central bank liquidity (particularly the Fed) has become the single most important factor in pushing stocks higher. If the rate of current QE continues, fundamentals can never catch up to stock prices inflated by so much money supply.
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This is the true irony in all this hawkish Fed talk. We have rate hike bidding wars. A Fed president calling for a pause in rate hikes that haven’t even started. But, the ONLY ACTION right now by the Fed is continuing QE, even after last week’s FOMC meeting. Keep that in mind.
2/2
Market pricing is not close to a 50bps hike (orange)
How screwed up is Fed policy when they are STILL DOING QE (!), another $30B in Feb, while Fed talk is about hiking 50 in March!
One foot still on the gas while debating when to use the other foot to slam on the brake.
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Valuations don’t matter. Earnings don’t matter. Fundamentals don’t matter. Stock returns are being driven by one primary force right now - Fed liquidity.
Based on current valuation, the future expected return on the S&P 500 is pretty muted! ht
@ISABELNET_SA
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Powell is describing the economy as “Goldilocks” and the markets like his message as they rally even higher today than before his presser.
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This is truly a mess.
American families are cutting their food budgets mostly by changing the types and brands of food they've bought, but food bank usage and skipped meals are also on the rise.
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The hiring rate at 3.4% is the lowest in over a decade, with the exception of the pandemic period. Labor is softening at a faster rate now.
Yesterday's JOLTs data - plus consumer confidence - has some worried about a faster pace of labor-market deterioration.
@MacroClaus
wrote "Bye bye soft landing, it was nice knowing you." The hiring rate fell to 3.4%, the lowest in over a decade if you exclude peak pandemic months
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I have said the Fed would wait too long to start easing. They have waited too long and are incurring yet another policy mistake.
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Here it goes
🚨Update: US Deploys 12x warships to the Middle East!
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JPMorgan to pay $920 million for manipulating precious metals, treasury market | Reuters
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Looking forward to joining you on the show
@MariaBartiromo
See you bright & early 6-9am et. Start smart
@MorningsMaria
@FoxBusiness
@dagenmcdowell
@BrianBrenberg
@realamymholmes
@scaramucci
@RepDeSantis
@TomLydon
@gen_jackkeane
@David_Kudla
@dfstrigl
@jalak
@TheJuanWilliams
@ChrisHogan360
@RajShah45
@Varneyco
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#EngageUIC
is the largest student stock pitch competition & conference in the world. American Beacon is banned from participating in this conference. This conference is about teaching students about leadership in our industry.
@AmBeacon
has no place teaching students anything.
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Congratulations
@MariaBartiromo
!!!
FOX News has re-signed Anchor & Global Markets Editor
@MariaBartiromo
to a new multiyear deal.
“FOX News and FOX Business have afforded me the opportunity to grow as a journalist and stretch myself in ways I’ve never imagined. I look forward to many more incredible years ahead.”
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Read
@DaisyMaxey
@WSJ
excellent article on Bill Gross PIMCO departure & impact on 401ks. See my input on
@Ford
plan.
http://t.co/RXYir5JiDN
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Why do some investors believe the
#Fed
will rollover on rate hikes?
#Powell
said that
#inflation
is the priority. And, inflation is at 8.5%. They may hike us right into into a recession or bear market or both. But, they are definitely hiking rates. A lot.
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This is my friend Seth. He is an Olympic Athlete. He is a Special Forces combat veteran. He sustained lifelong injuries fighting for our country. Now, he is working to help those left behind in Afghanistan. He is a true American Patriot.
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Do not underestimate the power of AI to transform industries and the work place.
Generative A.I. will upend the workforce, McKinsey says, forcing 12 million job switches and automating away 30% of hours worked in the U.S. economy by 2030
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An epic rout in the bond market indeed. I just penned a report to clients on why we have avoided interest rate sensitive bonds. The carnage since the beginning of 2022 alone has been staggering.
the 10-year yield is up 30bps since late Monday (36 hours). This is becoming an epic rout in the bond market (on a total return basis).
When do we start asking about financial stability concerns?
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I’m sure they harbor no resentment.
Taliban unveils new Afghan government, posts filled by former US prisoners
@MorningsMaria
@FoxBusiness
@generalkellogg
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It’s the same thing we do in the U.S. for a virus outbreak. Nothing to see here. Kindly move along.
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My good friend
@KennyPolcari
is the very best
@NYSE
tour guide. Here he is giving a tour of the
#NYSE
to a group of high school students. He has also helped with my college student investment conferences over the years. The world needs more Kenny Polcari’s.
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Countdown to the Closing Bell with
@LizClaman
on
@FoxBusiness
on a great rebound day for the markets!
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Honored to have been a guest several times in the best quarter for
@FoxBusiness
. Pleased to be on at 6 am ET Wednesday with
@MariaBartiromo
to kick off the new quarter!
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There are many financial services companies that partner with me in my philanthropy in providing experiential learning for students. I choose these companies because of their standard of excellence in what they do. American Beacon falls far short of that standard.
@AmBeacon
#EngageUIC
is the largest student stock pitch competition & conference in the world. American Beacon is banned from participating in this conference. This conference is about teaching students about leadership in our industry.
@AmBeacon
has no place teaching students anything.
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Great segment this morning with
@MariaBartiromo
@dagenmcdowell
@FreemanWSJ
@lh_carter
on
@MorningsMaria
. Thank you all!
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A global energy crisis could spell doom for this bull market in stocks. OK, I said it.
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Congrats Gary!!
@MariaBartiromo
FOX BUSINESS NETWORK PROMOTES GARY SCHREIER AND TOM BOWMAN
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Leading Economic Indicators forecasting GDP growth slowing to 2% by the end of 2019. Slower, but certainly not recessionary.
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Policies that are not communicated. Something acceptable one day and then a problem a problem later. Terrible internal and external communication at American Beacon. Avoid
@AmBeacon
#investment
products.
Warning for RIAs and brokers: Avoid American Beacon products. Their communication and operations are the worst in our experience. Avoid a headache, by avoiding
@AmBeacon
!
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JPMorgan to pay $920 million for manipulating precious metals, treasury market | Article [AMP] | Reuters
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American Beacon is a train wreck. Do not learn the hard way like
@MainstayCapital
did.
@AmBeacon
,through their negligence,has created serious problems. Heed my advice. Stay clear of this train wreck of a company.
Warning for RIAs and brokers: Avoid American Beacon products. Their communication and operations are the worst in our experience. Avoid a headache, by avoiding
@AmBeacon
!
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Mortgage rates hit 7.2%. A 22-year high. The housing market is not going to just roll over, it’s going to cave.
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Looking forward to joining
@MariaBartiromo
&
@dagenmcdowell
on
@FoxBusiness
@MorningsMaria
show on Monday at 6:20 am ET to kick off the week
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Congrats to
@FoxBusiness
anchors, reporters, producers, bookers, and on-air guests!
@MariaBartiromo
@LizClaman
@TeamCavuto
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I will admit that this chart is worrying me more and more.
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Getting ready for
@MorningsMaria
show on
@FoxBusiness
and my interview with
@MariaBartiromo
at 6:20 am ET to talk markets, the Fed Chair decision, and
@MainstayCapital
Management’s investment strategy through year-end. Tune in!
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Thank you
@MariaBartiromo
for having me on the show this morning.
Powell will come out more hawkish than previous testimonies: David Kudla
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As I forecasted on
@MariaBartiromo
’s show,
@MorningsMaria
on
@FoxBusiness
, on Friday morning, President
#Biden
reappointed
#Powell
to
#Fed
Chair and appointed
#Brainard
to Vice-Chair of the Fed.
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Great show this morning
@MariaBartiromo
I don't like the market impact, but would take trade sanctions on China to force their help on N Korea rather than a military strike later.
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Video of bond market pricing dislocations over the past two weeks.
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Spot on. So many (and
@elonmusk
) think $TSLA owns EVs, autonomous, ride sharing... Honda teamed up with GM on EV battery modules and autonomous. Now this with VW and Ford. The future belongs to the strong and stable, not a sleep deprived, stock manipulator. $TSLAQ
Volkswagen and Ford close to EV/AV partnership
EV's are much bigger than just $TSLA. Staying long $ALB, $SQM, $PLLL, and $LTHM
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The dollar might be a crowded trade
@CNBCClosingBell
@Kelly_Evans
@BillGriffeth
, but it will only get more crowded due to global mon policy
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Instant Super Bowl hangover cure! Watch as I join
@MariaBartiromo
at 6:20 am for market insights
@dagenmcdowell
@MorningsMaria
@FoxBusiness
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On my way to the studio to discuss $TSLA with
@MariaBartiromo
and
@dagenmcdowell
at 7:20 AM ET on
@MorningsMaria
on
@FoxBusiness
.
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Recession worries, yen carry trade unwind, and more to unpack. What’s the right investment strategy now? Find out in my discussion with
@LizClaman
on Thursday’s
@ClamanCountdown
on
@FoxBusiness
.
Catch our CEO, David Kudla, with
@LizClaman
on
@FoxBusiness
@ClamanCountdown
this Thursday, August 8th at 3:55 pm ET. Tune in for insights on the markets and his investment strategy!
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Looking forward to it.
Tune in to your favorite business network on Wednesday, March 21st, to catch our CEO,
@David_Kudla
, ringing the closing bell at the
@Nasdaq
Stock Exchange.
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Discussing the markets, economy, and Fed policy early this morning with
@MariaBartiromo
on
@FoxBusiness
.
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Warning for RIAs and brokers: Avoid American Beacon products. Their communication and operations are the worst in our experience. Avoid a headache, by avoiding
@AmBeacon
!
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The worst thing you can do is find out you took on too much risk for your tolerance when you are 15% or 20% into a pullback and then panic and go to cash near the bottom, then afraid to get reinvested, “until things look better”.
"It’s important for people to take a step back and just look at their portfolios and assess what their personal risk tolerance is”
@David_Kudla
via
@detroitnews
@BreanaCNoble
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Crude Oil at $100 is a foregone conclusion at this point. The question is how much further does it go beyond.
#OOTT
@JavierBlas
@chigrl
@ericnuttall
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Uh oh.
CHART OF THE DAY: U.S. gasoline inventories have now dropped outside the seasonal range for 2015-2020, with 4-week rolling average demand holding above 9.3 million b/d (above pre-covid levels) |
#OOTT
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Prepping for my segment this morning on
@MariaBartiromo
’s show. Be sure to tune in at 8:20 am ET on
@FoxBusiness
for our discussion on the markets, Fed, economy, and of course, $TSLA
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US second quarter
#productivity
down -4.6%. First quarter productivity revised down -7.4%, the biggest decline since 1947.
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Great segment today. Thank you
@CoryTV
and
@carolmassar
@David_Kudla
@carolmassar
@GM
@BloombergRadio
That was good stuff man! Check out the full interview in our podcast download at .
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Excellent call by the
@TheChartress
less than one month ago on Bloomberg TV showing how the stock market was setting up for a 10% correction.
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This is their problem and trap
@dlacalle_IA
. Why on earth would a central bank be tapering as growth is slowing. They taper, stocks fall, reverse wealth effect takes effect, economy slows even faster. This will not go well and the
#Fed
will reverse course, as in the past.
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The
#Fed
has never stopped a hiking cycle with headline and core inflation above the Fed Funds Rate. They have always gotten to a positive real rate.
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Bitcoin has embarked on an enduring rally on PayPal and further institutional acceptance.
@MarkYusko
and other
#Bitcoin
bulls will be proven right over the long-term.
An excellent summation of where
#bitcoin
is, why it is doing what it’s doing, and it’s unique characteristics. Check out this excellent interview from my partner
@MarkYusko
at Morgan Creek Digital below🔥🚀🔥
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It’s a good day when you open up Barrons and see your new National ranking as an investment advisor has improved on one page and the announcement for the student investment conference you sponsor on the other page.
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It is so nice when floor traders like
@KennyPolcari
and others take time out of their busy day to spend time with students at the
@NYSE
.
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We are working with exceptional students, professors, and administrators at the University of Michigan on the world’s largest annual student stock pitch competition and conference -
#EngageUIC
. Join us Oct 12-14.
@engage_iies
@UMich
@MichiganRoss
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Don’t miss
@Kathleen_Hays
interview of Federal Reserve President
@neelkashkari
on
@BloombergTV
today live from
@QuinnipiacU
University’s GAME Student Investment Conference.
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Thank you
@adsteel
and
@ptsweeney
for having me in the show.
Our CEO, David Kudla, joined
@ptsweeney
and
@adsteel
for a
@BloombergRadio
discussion on the financial markets, corporate earnings, and where investors may be able to find opportunities.
Catch David's insights in the link below.
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The US 10-Year Treasury yield is now below 1.5%.
Let that sink in.
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Spot on
@MarkYusko
. Don’t be penny wise and pound foolish when it comes to your investment style.
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Looking forward to joining
@CoryTV
and
@carolmassar
in one hour to talk
@GM
earnings, outlook, and the overall auto industry on
@BloombergRadio
Catch our CEO,
@David_Kudla
, Tuesday on Bloomberg at 2:15 PM ET for a discussion on
@GM
earnings and an outlook for General Motors and the auto industry.
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Thank you
@adsteel
and
@ptsweeney
for having me on the show today for our discussion on CPI, the Fed, and our investment strategy going forward.
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Can’t think of a better way to start my morning. Thanks
@MariaBartiromo
@David_Kudla
@FoxBusiness
Thanks so much
@David_Kudla
kicking off
#3Q
with you
@MorningsMaria
@FoxBusiness
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