Conor Ryder
@ConorRyder
Followers
41,487
Following
718
Media
274
Statuses
705
Head of Research @ethena_labs | Prev. Research @KaikoData | CFA
Joined October 2011
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Edmundo
• 263422 Tweets
CHARLOTTE X TIKTOKLIVE99
• 228971 Tweets
#Narin
• 226687 Tweets
ANILPIN WE ARE THE ONE
• 194506 Tweets
#ปิ่นภักดิ์EP6
• 186729 Tweets
#光る君へ
• 108845 Tweets
KIM TAEHYUNG
• 54227 Tweets
プロジェクトKV
• 53756 Tweets
Zapatero
• 50873 Tweets
東京ドーム
• 39376 Tweets
İdam
• 30738 Tweets
Kostic
• 29906 Tweets
ポルノグラフィティ
• 27650 Tweets
SEVENTEEN AT LOLLAPALOOZA
• 21604 Tweets
NFL Sunday
• 15407 Tweets
ماهر الجازي
• 15325 Tweets
源氏物語
• 15153 Tweets
#降り積もれ孤独な死よ
• 14706 Tweets
LESSONS FROM BIU
• 13654 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
A lot of new eyes on Ethena today and people are right to point out the risks involved
I wanted to take a sec to highlight some of the extensive work we've done surrounding the risks of the design, and specifically addressing funding risk
Before I get into the meat and veg
62
327
690
The liquidity situation in crypto is worsening after the banking fears this month 📉
I dived into several liquidity metrics to give an update on all things crypto liquidity🧵
First, $BTC liquidity has dropped to 10 month lows as market makers lose access to USD payment rails👇
74
339
1K
How did USDe handle the last 24 hours?
Some context:
1/ Largest $ daily drawdown in open interest across major exchanges for ETH contracts ever (excl. FTX)
13
46
278
2/ US exchanges have been hardest hit due to the closure of USD payment rails and crypto banks
Market makers in the region facing unprecedented challenges to their operations
4
10
170
5/ Coinbase have struggled from a volumes standpoint too despite the launch of its Layer 2 Base and fear around USD pairs
Binance have gained 20% marketshare since July thanks largely to their zero fee pairs
3
5
154
6/ Zero fee pairs have made up 61% of Binance's volumes but they have now officially removed zero fees for all pairs except btc-tusd
The importance of this is not to be understated — Binance is the most liquid exchange and the btc-usdt pair is the most liquid pair in crypto.
2
9
149
4/ Same story for slippage
On a $100k sell order, Coinbase's btc-usd pair has increased by 2.5x the slippage it started the month at
Binance's btc-usdt pair's slippage meanwhile barely moved
2
7
152
10/ To tie a bow on this thread, and to end on a more optimistic note:
Volumes have at least picked up off the multi-year lows at end of 2022
With volumes picking up, just waiting on liquidity to improve for a sustained uptrend in crypto
Otherwise be prepared for volatility ⚡️
2
5
139
3/ Spreads for USD pairs have displayed a similar trend, suffering more volatility as a result of the uncertainty in the US
2
5
139
11/ Full Deep Dive with some more long-form analysis below 👇
4
11
121
9/ Volumes wise, USD pairs are being phased out in favor of stablecoins
This dulls the impact of US banking issues, but as we've seen is impacting liquidity in the US which will indirectly hurt investors there
Stablecoins now have 95% share of volumes vs USD
2
5
113
8/ Having to offer tighter spreads means market makers profitably is hurt
This results in them offering less liquidity on Binance, moving to more profitable exchanges/pairs
As the only zero fee pair, btc-tusd may see a huge influx of liquidity
BTC-USDT pair depth down 70%
3
2
113
7/ The removal of zero fees means market makers on those pairs have to reduce their wide spreads, as investors won't pay for a taker fee and higher spreads
$BTC spreads corrected yesterday to the new norm on
#Binance
with fees
4
3
108
Epic spaces incoming…
Can’t wait to host this panel tomorrow for
@ethena_labs
featuring quite possibly the most stacked DeFi panel ever 👀
Featuring:
@kaiynne
@StaniKulechov
@samkazemian
@RuneKek
@leptokurtic_
@svobodamichael
@mrblocktw
9
29
77
I ranked the top 30 tokens by volume and depth, as part of a wider asset liquidity ranking model dropping Thursday for
@KaikoData
👇
For now, provided without comment 😶
7
21
66
$BTC correlation with European stocks is at its lowest level in over two years
BTC/Nasdaq correlation reaches second lowest level in over a year
Crypto starting to diverge from stocks ✅
5
13
59
Some thoughts on the state of DeFi today for
@CoinDesk
This is my counter point to the adoption of RWA's in DeFi
Decentralized Finance has become Blockchain Finance, but stETH and crypto native yields could reverse that trend
DeFi redux?
@ConorRyder
argues Ethereum staking provides a crypto-native, yield-bearing instrument that can support a host of novel financial systems and stablecoins, putting the “De back in DeFi."
Opinion for
#StakingWeek
, presented by
@FoundryServices
20
7
23
5
29
61
I ranked the top 30 tokens in crypto by liquidity using:
1. Market Depth
2. Volumes
3. Spreads
Using those ranks I arrived at an overall asset liquidity score, which can then be compared to its market cap to find most misleading tokens ✍️
Results in a short 🧵 below
10
15
48
12/ And subscribe to our free weekly newsletters to get more articles like this from the Kaiko team
6
2
48
Coinbase launching an offshore exchange in response to their declining market share of volumes
Their share of total spot volumes has been halved in the last two years from 10% to 5%
With no regulatory clarity in the US, I'd expect many more US exchanges will make move offshore
4
10
45
Worth flagging this campaign will only last 3 months, or until USDe supply hits $1bn
We recognize people are feeling the points fatigue at this stage and we have zero interest in running a long drawn out points program
I've been farmed for 9+ months on some points programs.
Our Shard Campaign Overview is published here
Steps to participating in Epoch 1 of the shard campaign:
1. Enter your referral code on the landing page
2. Go to the app and on the Buy tab acquire USDe
704
41K
7K
3
10
37
$ETH options markets offering interesting insight into sentiment pre and post Merge
Investors looking to hedge their risks with puts pre Merge. 42% of volumes were puts=highest % I saw across expiries
More bullish call options dominate post merge, 73% in Sept and 84% after Sept
5
8
35
Ethena Reserve fund up to $32.6m after a $5m distribution from weekly revenues
7
4
40
tldr:
- min 15% of total $ENA supply allocated to points programs, 2.25m ENA
- new sats calculator on our app on Monday
- at the current USDe growth rate, sats campaign would end in July
- new Karak, Infinex and Bouncebit integrations next week
- now 4th largest USD asset in
3
9
39
#Uniswap
weekly trade volumes bouncing off the 2-year lows, up from $2.8bn to start the year to $7.2bn last week
4
9
34
When liquidity is low, as it is right now, prices have less support to both the upside and downside
That's being reflected in $BTC volatility, which has reached its highest mark this year and climbing ⚡️
1
8
33
We've got a new most liquid pair in crypto ⚠️
TUSD-USDT
Someone's come in with a huge liquidity injection of $200mn in the last day.
Biggest injection of liquidity I've ever seen - TUSD continues to force itself into stablecoin conversation
3
7
27
People spotting a BTC premium on Binance US and seem to be jumping the gun saying its a big market maker pulling funds
No change in market depth on the exchange makes me nearly certain this isn't the case yet
IMO more likely Binance US offering slower USD withdrawal times after
5
8
24
Token Unlocks aren't all cut from the same cloth 💡
Noticed $AXS and $SAND pumping before unlocks, outperforming $ETH by 50% and 45% YTD
Unlocks are supposed to be bearish catalysts, so I looked into the data to find why some are more bearish than others 👇
🧵1/11
3
13
33
A 🧵 on perpetual futures and options in crypto:
Perpetual futures are increasingly driving price action
Perp to spot volume is at highest point in nearly 2 years and price discovery is happening in derivative markets
So which way are markets pointing? 🧐
1
4
24
Great to work with
@WClementeIII
and
@ReflexivityRes
Using
@KaikoData
we pulled together a report on the State of Liquidity in Crypto Markets, check it out 👇
Excited to share our latest report on the State of Liquidity in Crypto Markets, thanks to data provided by
@KaikoData
Can check out the full (free) report below.
Let's dive into the most significant takeaways: 🧵
6
26
78
4
4
27
11/ USDe and DeFi stay strong
Meanwhile tardfi crumbles
Big month ahead
JUST IN: The following trading platforms are reportedly down:
• Charles Schwab
• TD Ameritrade
• Vanguard
• E-Trade
• Fidelity
1K
3K
15K
1
1
32
For anyone needing a positive note to end the year on in crypto, look at its usage in developing economies.
Countries like Brazil are turning to stablecoins to peg their savings to USD.
50% of Brazilian Real (BRL) volumes now involve a stablecoin, compared to just 5% for USD.
3
12
28
Just published my latest deep dive for
@KaikoData
looking at the lack of stETH liquidity right now and the trouble that's causing the likes of Celsius.
I also looked at the avenues Celsius and others might be going down as we speak with their stETH
Time for a thread 🧵👇
3
13
28
6/ USDe handled almost $100m of redemptions while peg remained within ~30bps throughout
Almost $100m (~3% of supply) in direct redemptions, handled smoothly with the teams ops replenishing the mint/redeem contract readily
1
0
11
2
1
29
#ETH
derivative markets are heating up ahead of the Merge 🧵
I looked at the biggest trends in futures and options markets two weeks out from the big day 👇
First, my favourite trend I found, showing Perp/Spot volume ratio
ETH perps volume rising from 4x spot to 7x today
3
7
26
My last day with
@KaikoData
was a week ago - sad to leave such a team of gigabrains and some of the best people in the space
But don't worry anon, I'm staying in this beautiful industry and v excited to share my new role soon 🫡
3
5
25
1/ Delighted to share that I'll be leading the Research team
@ethena_labs
Crypto needs a scalable, onchain stablecoin that can serve the masses & legitimise crypto as an alternative financial system
USDe aims to solve that and I couldn't be more excited
3
8
24
3/ ETH Funding rates dipped as low as -35% but rebounded intraday, reverting to their positive mean in a trend we’ve highlighted in the past.
Negative funding has historically yet to persist for longer than 13 days. Only 9 days of negative funding this year out of ~220.
1
3
25
Definitely one to keep an eye on, but so far no change in BTC liquidity on Binance, despite withdrawals from some of the biggest market makers
Jump has net outflows from Binance in excess of $146 million on the week, and no inflows
If Binance books look like they're completely drained of all liquidity, the exit of possibly the largest MM is probably a good reason why
Source:
13
25
150
1
6
22
USDe about to hit $100m today
Protocol currently earning >30% yield with funding elevated
Not even launched to the public yet
We talked about the opportunity for most of last year but still surreal to see it play out so quick
Big month ahead
@ethena_labs
0
0
22
Spent the last few days making a model to rank the liquidity of crypto assets.
Each token gets a rank from least liquid to most using this system.
I went on to compare each ranking to that token's market cap, showing some big outliers.
Here's how I ranked them: 🧵
3
10
21
Fastest to $3bn and highest earning app
Study
USDe is now the fastest USD asset to reach $3b in crypto history
47
114
644
7
2
21
Two big $USDC markets on exchanges seeing heavy sell pressure and huge volumes in last 24 hours
Despite plenty of reassurance on crypto twitter, most investors still selling USDC at a big discount
2
7
20
Huge day for the team and hopefully the industry
Public launch of USDe & shard campaign kickoff
A new dawn 🌅
Announcing the
@ethena_labs
public mainnet 🌅
Details on our "Shard Campaign" in the following tweet
2K
40K
44K
2
4
14
Allowing $DAI to be minted with $MKR would be a huge mistake, opening up Maker and DAI to a bank run
If MKR is used as collateral for DAI, that MKR may have to be liquidated someday
$MKR has awful liquidity at only $2m, worse than $AAVE and $LDO
Good luck liquidating $100m
3
9
20
After launching in August 2022, Coinbase's cbETH is now approaching a 50% volume share of ETH liquid staking derivatives
With a 25% fee on staking rewards, LSD's are shaping up to be a big revenue driver for $COIN: Q3 staking represented 8% of their revenue. I'd bet Q4 is higher
3
4
19
Interesting dynamic here that in the event of a Lido slashing, node operators are compensating stakers
Don't believe that's happened before, Lido have an insurance fund to cover slashing events
Shows how valuable Lido are for node operators + might set new precedent
@launchnodes
immediately expressed their desire to compensate stakers at the soonest possible time, and so disbursed 25.663 ETH prior to today’s rebase, which means that stakers will see no reduced rewards for the day resulting from the outage and slashing.
3
3
21
4
4
19
Bullish $ATOM and
@cosmos
after diving more into the project ahead of the
@CosmoverseHQ
announcements next week
$ATOM sounds like it will accrue more value with the new tokenomics, driving new demand for the token
Markets have loved it, here's a quick thread explaining why 🧵👇
4
9
17
A story of 📈 bond yields vs 📉 DeFi yields
MakerDAO are investing $500m into US Treasuries
This was a no-brainer for a no. of reasons:
1. Yields
2. Competition
3. Compliance
A quick 🧵 with some thoughts/charts 👇
And no, adding US govt assets isn't as bad as it sounds:
2
7
18
Thanks to
@CNBC
and
@CNBCJulianna
for having me on last week!
Really enjoyed chatting about crypto markets, crypto's credit crisis and parallels to 2008 🥲
Hopefully next time there'll be some good news to chat about!
5
3
16
One theory why $LDO is surging: illiquidity
Only $500k-$1m of depth on centralized exchanges within 2% of price - yesterday LDO saw $110m of volumes
Market couldn't keep up with spike in demand 👇
1
4
16
7/ stETH depegged ~2%
LST’s as a % of USDe backing assets is only 8% today to contain exposure to what would need to be a (much) bigger stETH depeg
1
0
18
Make up your own mind, but I found what looks like potential wash trading on several BitForex markets
Taking $LTC as an example:
Green circles are buys, red crosses are sells
A crosshair means a buy and sell occurred seconds apart🚩
Here's how I spotted it + more examples🧵
2
8
16
Crypto exchanges have responded to volume slowdowns with widespread layoffs. Volumes down between 40-90% in 2022 vs 2021.
Interestingly,
#Binance
haven't made any public layoffs
For comparison, Coinbase laid off 40% of staff after a 50% decrease in volumes
3
7
14
Some crackers in here that'll get the people going and a great discussion all round
1/ Some highlights from our DeFi Spaces a couple of weeks ago 🧵
ft.
@kaiynne
@RuneKek
@StaniKulechov
@samkazemian
@svobodamichael
@mrblocktw
@leptokurtic_
First, Ethena founder
@leptokurtic_
on how Ethena thinks about a RWA yield vs. a crypto native yield
3
46
112
0
6
17
Put together 5 charts you need to see as the Merge approaches 🧵👇
First up,
#ETH
open interest hit record highs recently.
News like CPI from yesterday, at this level of open interest, have an outsized effect on prices with this much capital in system
OI is nearly 3x last year
1
7
15
Proud to say we delivered here
6 weeks later and $ENA is dropping
Worth flagging this campaign will only last 3 months, or until USDe supply hits $1bn
We recognize people are feeling the points fatigue at this stage and we have zero interest in running a long drawn out points program
I've been farmed for 9+ months on some points programs.
3
10
37
2
1
17
$DOT, $LTC and $BCH are included in some of the top crypto indices, satisfying Hong Kong requirement and potentially allowing retail there to invest in the tokens
Looking at their liquidity, $BCH ranks poorly - probably shouldn't be considered
1
7
16
8/ For clarity, Ethena's only active hedges are on Binance, Bybit, OKX and Deribit, with a small amount on Bitget today
Real time view of the positions here
2
0
17
🚨 Major liquidity drop in crypto markets overnight, particularly on US exchanges
Depth for $BTC pairs on Coinbase down 45%, down 42% and Kraken down 35% since start of March
Binance also saw big drop but still up on the month
0
6
16
Reason no.47563543 why you shouldn't trust Market Cap
$OKB ranked No.10 on
@coingecko
with a $12bn market cap
$OKB ranked No.25 on
@CoinMarketCap
with a $3bn market cap
Former uses the 300M minus burn circulating supply on OKX website
Latter uses 60M figure on exchange sites
2
5
16
9/ Ethena protocol also surpassed $100m in cumulative revenue generated last week
3
0
17
The Chinese narrative looks overblown... 🇨🇳
In 2023, trading volumes for Asian-linked tokens during US hours continue to outpace volumes during Asian hours 👇
What will a crypto friendly Asia mean for markets? 🤔
This week's Deep Dive debunks the narrative that Asia is driving markets now & explores the long term impacts of the Hong Kong proposal 👇
0
9
19
2
3
13
$BTC, $ETH and $BNB due for some positive inflows as $985mn conversion of $BUSD looks like it's yet to happen 👇
The conversion of $985mn $BUSD to $BTC, $ETH and $BNB looks like it's yet to start.
Sell orders on those
#Binance
pairs still outweigh buy orders in the last 24 hours, with no outsized buy orders
0
2
7
0
2
14
Very interesting implication of Silvergate issues:
Euro share of $BTC volumes has spiked in the last few days vs. USD.
Up 3x since November as regulatory ambiguity continues to hurt the US.
1
8
13
One interesting result of the timing of Mr. Gensler's iron fist 🫤
Binance reintroduced fees for most $BTC pairs last month, levelling the playing field for exchanges.
That led to a 20% loss of market share for Binance, a huge opportunity for its competitors to finally catch
1
4
10
I don't know who needs to hear this, but the Merge won't solve Ethereum's scaling problems
In the meantime we need to focus on rollups and Layer 2
Rollups, Layer 2s and their effect on DEXs were the topics of my Deep Dive for
@KaikoData
this week
Time for a thread 🧵👇
2
6
13
Exactly this. I imagine I’m sounding like a broken record but you just can’t trust any price rally these days.
Not only that but futures are becoming more and more responsible for price discovery
Illiquidity = Volatility
Hilarious seeing both bulls and bears euphoric on 15 minute timeframes, with futures traders getting rekt both ways.
$BTC market is very illiquid these days, in both directions...
92
70
1K
0
6
11
Can confirm my X account was hacked last night, if you got a DM from me please ignore.
If you were affected by the link please DM me.
fwiw it was via a phishing link in a fake suspicious login email, that was sent a minute after a real attempted password reset email
24
1
11
10/ The amount of USDe on Bybit increased to $180m to take advantage of our latest campaign
Introducing USDe as reward bearing stable margin collateral with
@Bybit_Official
:
As of August 2nd, all Bybit users will be able to earn up to 20% APR, paid daily, for simply holding USDe, or trading derivatives with USDe collateral, in your Bybit accounts
Details below:
61
99
548
2
0
16
13/ As liquidity worsens, opportunities arise💵
US banking fears have resulted in greater disparity in price of BTC-USD pairs
Compared to the avg on 10 exchanges, pricing more volatile than this time last year
USD pairs becoming easier to arbitrage ✍️
5
2
10
Great presentation from
@Clara_Medalie
on the
@EthCC
main stage just now, talking about the role of DEXs in the Terra collapse as well as the stETH discount
If you've 15 mins to spare today watch this!
0
6
14
Wrote
@KaikoData
's first Deep Dive this week focusing on stablecoins
Here's a quick thread with some of the key points for the lazy folk 🧵👇
3
5
13
Best to trade on $USDT pairs going forward
As panic dies down, so do spreads 📉 but...
Seeing a new norm with $BUSD vs. $USDT spreads on
#Binance
, moving and remaining wider since the news this week as $BUSD liquidity worsens
0
5
12
Chad moves
@MacroMate8
has seen the light
Big personal news: I am joining
@ethena_labs
as Head of Growth
This is going to be my single largest bet this cycle as it aligns all the major themes: LSTs, yield-bearing stablecoins, Institutional inflows and a team capable of execution with backing from every major CEX and
66
21
452
0
0
13
Forced liquidations have been one of the main stories in crypto this last month
Crypto miners selling holdings and Mt.Gox maybe unloading $3bn
#BTC
have us asking what affect this would have on prices
@riyad_carey
and I looked into this in this weeks
@KaikoData
Deep Dive
🧵👇
1
3
13
Binance and Bybit have captured FTX's market share of
#BTC
perpetual future volumes
FTX had 10% of volumes to start November - Binance takes 7% while Bybit takes 3%
No change for OKX or Bitmex. Deribit gained and lost their share to remain flat on the month.
1
4
13
Funding rates for $BNB perpetual futures dipped sharply negative this morning - hitting their lowest levels this year
Traders getting very bearish $BNB
0
4
10
On our first monthly
@KaikoData
analyst call yesterday, I was asked for my outlook on liquidity in crypto markets over the next 6-12 months.
Clipped my response below 👇
Sign up for next month's webinar here:
2
3
10
In summary, I would say thing to watch with unlocks is % to investors: if c.50% expect heavy sell pressure
Big shoutout to
@Token_Unlocks
and
@UnlocksCalendar
who were 🔑 to this research
Full article for
@KaikoData
👇
🧵11/11
2
2
11
$BUSD discount looks to have bottomed thanks to arbitrageurs
More volume buying $BUSD at a discount than selling since the announcement - can still redeem 1:1 with Paxos for now
13th Feb: $1.85bn buys vs $1.53bn sells of $BUSD on Binance's Tether pair
2
3
11
The stETH discount has improved from 3.5% to 1.5% post-Merge and a big reason for that is liquidity returning to the pool
We see a clear change in behaviour immediately after the Merge this morning, with mints (liquidity adds) dominating for both tokens
0
6
12
Joining
@CoinDesk
TV at 3pm EST to talk $BTC liquidity and why I'm slow to trust any rally in markets right now 🫡
1
3
11
Lots of new short $BTC positions entered into over the weekend
Funding rates were at their most negative this month as open interest built up again
Might help explain today's move higher, possible short squeeze taking place
1
4
9
Worth noting here that this is specific to the US which is hardly surprising
Been flagging worse USD liquidity vs USDT for months now, wouldn’t be surprised if they phased out liq months ago
Another L for crypto in the US
1
4
7