Unlocks Calendar
@UnlocksCalendar
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Want to copy the trades of profitable crypto wallets on chain?
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Tired of VC Funds dumping on your tokens?
> take note of Token Unlocks dates
> anticipate VCs funds selling on those dates
> avoid riding your token to zero
We have Token Unlocks dates for >150 coins here
👇👇👇
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We saw a lot of interest on the unlock schedule of the assets of 3 Arrows Capital, which is now in liquidity shortfall and might need to fire sell some of their holdings
Here a brief description of the vesting schedule of each one of the coins showed in the picture below
👇👇👇
Keep an eye on these assets.
These are 3AC’s primary holdings.
They’ll presumably look to dump during upcoming unlocks.
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1K
4K
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Some projects where Seed / Private investors are still up a lot on the investment
$SAND, $LIDO, $AXIE and $STEPN investors are up more than 50x
Be careful on unlocks dates of these projects
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We came across very interesting data from
@PanteraCapital
They back-tested tokens performance based on their vesting schedule, in order to empirically come up with the optimal vesting structure
Here what they found out:
👇👇👇
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$AXS - Tokens unlock / vesting schedule
@AxieInfinity
Date: 4-May-22
% of total supply unlocked: 3% 🚨🚨
(c.8,411,250 tokens)
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$IMX
Around the 5th November 2022, $IMX will unlock c.350m tokens, higher than current circulating supply and c.18% of total supply 🚨🚨
Selling pressure should be massive as private sale is up >8x on the investment: be careful friends
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$APT
@AptosLabs
tokenomics
Upbit accidentally leaked the structure in their Aptos PDF report
Major date to watch is 1st October 2023, when investors and key contributors will unlock their allocation
(The chart excludes validator rewards)
Source:
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353
$SUI vesting schedule looks like as if was made by Alameda
You dont want to be invested on 3-Nov-23 cliff unlock, when circulating supply will 3x
Also, MMs now hold 54% of circulating supply, very concentrated and at high risk of dump - they also seem in the money currently
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Tired of VC Funds dumping on your tokens?
> take note of Token Unlocks dates
> anticipate VCs selling
> avoid riding your token to zero
We have Token Unlocks dates for >70 coins here
👇👇👇
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$LOOKS First major unlock is across today and tomorrow. Be careful friends.
$LOOKS - Tokens unlock / vesting schedule
First major unlock date: 9-July-2022 (team, treasury and "strategic investors")
% of total supply unlocked: 14% 🚨🚨
(c.80,000,000 coins)
Note: Volume and staking rewards also inflate supply (i.e.36% is released from Jan22 to Jun22)
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We prepared a spreadsheet with all $SOL unlocks dates of 2023
Helpful to protect yourself from further dumps in the short term
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$LOOKS - Tokens unlock / vesting schedule
First major unlock date: 9-July-2022 (team, treasury and "strategic investors")
% of total supply unlocked: 14% 🚨🚨
(c.80,000,000 coins)
Note: Volume and staking rewards also inflate supply (i.e.36% is released from Jan22 to Jun22)
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Easy to guess which was one of the top coins accumulated by SMART MONEY (mix of wallets of whales and institutional investors tagged by Nansen) over the last week
$PEPE, with net inflows of ~$1.2m
Also, they accumulated ~$160k in the last 24h
Interesting times
#memecoins
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We got hit extremely hard by $UST collapse. Hope you guys are doing better
Still, back to buidling
As suggested by many, we are also screening the best coins in terms of tokenomics to consider when the dust settles and outlook improves
First of many $GMX
@GMX_IO
(Thread)
Need to find alts with high floats and 0 remaining unlocks
Think alts have a lot more downside stikk, but I’m starting to build my stinkbid list
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#WallOfShame
: coins with poor unlocks disclosure
$GALA
i) Info difficult to find (very well hidden in the "support section" of the website)
ii) No info on start and end of unlocks schedule
iii) No info on allocation
iv) No info on seed / private rounds (if relevant)
Pls fix
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$LDO
@StaniKulechov
, founder of $AAVE, has been selling all its seed allocation as soon as it was unlocked
Average selling price is $1.21
His entry price (i.e. seed price) was $0.01
This tells a lot on incentives to dump at unlocks (up 121x)
Stani Kulechov(
@StaniKulechov
) sold 715,000 $LDO($667,269) 16 hours ago.
Stani Kulechov is one of the seed round investors of
@LidoFinance
.
And he has sold out all the 2M $LDO allocated on December 17, 2020 now.
His average selling price is $1.21.
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Jump and Jane Street are thinking about an exit from Crypto
Guess this means... selling their current positions?
Here their wallets and portfolios to keep track of their movements:
🧵👇
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Tokens with big inflation (as % of total supply) in the next 6 months
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$CANTO
A summary on Cosmos layer 1 that everybody is talking about
> What is $CANTO
> How does it work
> Tokenomics assessment
> How to use
A thread 🧵👇
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Even if Binance bails out FTX, Alameda can still blow up (was never mentioned by CZ)
You can have a look at their portfolio live at the links below to keep track of their holdings: it Alameda gets liquidated, you might see it in advance
(1/2)
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Hi everybody!
We have a Substack where we provide comprehensive data and detailed analyses on the unlock schedules of >40 coins
We provide monthly updates + we add c.10-30 new coins per month to the database
Feel free to subscribe and support us 🙏🙏
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We compiled a [non-exhaustive] list of cryptocurrency VCs / investors from Crunchbase; goal is tracking the top 30/40 investors and track their investments.
Can you help us identify which major funds we are missing from the list?
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18M $SOL waiting to be deactivated from the staking pool
Will be then available in the free market while people are desperate to reduce exposure to
@FTX_Official
related coins
Not sure if this will end up well
Source:
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We took the first 1,000 coins on Coingecko and ordered them by Circulating Supply %, so that you can find coins with close to 100% circulating supply (no future unlocks) and do your own research on them
Making a list of projects with 0 upcoming unlocks, IMO those are the ones you want to bid heavy when it’s time to buy some blood
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The anatomy of a pump and dump
$ASX
@AxieInfinity
what a coincidence, 2 announcements that caused 20% and 40% price increase respectively, just before 4-Nov-21 and 4-Feb-22 unlocks
I wonder what happened next...
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Have been digging in $CANTO ecosystem for a while, and can share the excitement of CT timeline
However, cannot avoid being worried about the 130m $CANTO allocated to insiders (30% of circulating supply) with no lockup period
Concentration risk
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$APT
@AptosLabs
Private sale / seed price are not available
But you can use valuation at which the project raised money to infer at which price the VCs will probably dump
Valuation range was $800m-$1.85bn
Trade accordingly
(data from our database)
$APT
@AptosLabs
tokenomics
Upbit accidentally leaked the structure in their Aptos PDF report
Major date to watch is 1st October 2023, when investors and key contributors will unlock their allocation
(The chart excludes validator rewards)
Source:
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Smart money flowing heavily into $UNIBOT
New narrative?
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$OXY unlock in Dec. 2021
"Oxygen will be the most sophisticated risk management tool in DeFi — with a strong team, growing liquid ecosystem and large potential user base we believe this is the next step in mass adoption"
@AlamedaResearch
dunno, looks like a pump and dump to us
Sure would be a shame if someone started plotting bullish VC tweets on a chart and superimposing the coin unlock dates of all their seed bags.
The bottom isn’t in and 99% of you (me included) are not going to profitably scalp these conditions.
There’s a reason I’m still around.
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$OP will unlock 9% of total supply tomorrow (30th May)
This will be first unlock for i) core contributors, and ii) investors
Potential selling pressure will be ~$600m
Will release a newsletter article on likely price impact this evening
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If you are looking for an internship / first job in a crypto fund, might be helpful to email / DM them directly
We compiled a Master Contact list (on Excel) with ~8,000 Crypto Funds emails, twitter and LinkedIn address you can use
Click here 👇👇👇
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Backtesting
@GiganticRebirth
trading strategy based on our data
$FLOW
Exactly 1 year after launch (launched on 16-Oct-2020), VCs finished their 1year cliff and 50% of their bags unlocked
Result? $FLOW -37% in a day
May2022 report disclosing unlock dates coming in few days 👀
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Below the projects with the highest Valuations compared to their annualised revenue
(FDV / Revenue multiple)
Helpful to have a look at that multiple before investing in any of those projects. The multiple also represents incentive to dump at unlocks dates
Source:
@tokenterminal
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$ROSE
Unlock today 🚨🚨🚨
In November 2021, $ROSE had similar unlock in terms of size, and price decreased -50% in the next 10 days
See below our article showing details on future unlock schedule, VCs investment details and more
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$METIS
Interesting chart
Major unlocks are all gone, should be free to ride if $BTC behaves
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Reminder:
$sand unlock on 14th February (Valentine’s day! ❤️), 8% of supply will come to circulation
Careful:
$Sand seed investors are up 200x from 0.0036 seed price
$sand strategic investors are up 150x from 0.005 strategic price
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$ROSE
This is happening on the 18th of May and will represent c.9% of circulating supply [i.e: very big]
Be careful friends
$ROSE - Tokens unlock / vesting schedule
@OasisProtocol
Unlock is delayed from Apr-22 to May-22 (uncertain date). They will notify it on Telegram: will keep you updated
Date: May-22
% of total supply unlocked: 9%
(900,000,000 tokens)
Apr-22 circulating supply: 35%
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Last minute update from $ALICE team, today in their TG: unlock is not happening anymore today, but on the 15th.
Not super transparent tbh….
$ALICE - Tokens unlock / vesting schedule
@MyNeighborAlice
Date: 8 June 2022
% of total supply unlocked: 4% 🚨🚨
(c.3,700,000 tokens)
Pre-Unlock circulating supply: 17%
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#WallOfShame
$FLOW
@flow_blockchain
They deleted the vesting schedule from the website
Here the link to it, in case it is needed
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UPDATE:
@arbitrum
DAO votes overwhelmingly to lock up $770 million in $ARB Tokens! 🔥
Bullish tokenomics upgrade
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As we experience positive market momentum, teams with upcoming unlocks will release good news that they withheld for months when market was dead
Goal would be riding positive market moves to pump the price just before unlocks
Keep an eye on coins like $DYDX (Unlock on 3rd Feb)
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$ALICE - Tokens unlock / vesting schedule
@MyNeighborAlice
Date: 8 June 2022
% of total supply unlocked: 4% 🚨🚨
(c.3,700,000 tokens)
Pre-Unlock circulating supply: 17%
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$APE 👀👀
> 3 key unlocks dates in the next months, where Founders, contributors and Yuga Labs will have their vesting period end
> 29% circulating supply, $6.4bn FDV (fully diluted valuation)
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For our soccer fan friends:
$LAZIO token, listed on Binance, (the fan token of one of the football teams in Rome) has YEARLY massive unlocks and on 21st October will unlock 12% of total supply
Selling pressure should be big, be careful
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$ARB
@arbitrum
How to claim $ARB token from smart contract if the website is down:
1/ Go here
2/ Click "connect to Web3" to connect your wallet via Metamask
3/ Click "write" to claim your allocation (maximise gas in Metamask, 50/50)
Worked for us!
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Need to Add $LUNA to the calendar :)
The details I have heard but might not be final:
- Jump, Celsius and Jane St. committed already, Alameda not yet
- targeting $1B - $1.5B raise
- 50% discount to LUNA spot with 1yr lock + monthly linear vest over 1yr
- total of ~$700M in commitments as of morning
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$GRT
Great example how to *NOT* structure tokenomics
> 60% distribution to insiders and VCs
> Sizable unlock 3 month after lunch where circ. supply went 4x
> Price action followed consequently and "community" was dumped on
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Be careful frends
$KSM unlocks 10% of supply on May 15th
not sure if this is bullish..
❓ So what is “The Big Unlock”?
Around May 15th, ***1.1 MILLION $KSM*** from the first batch of parachain crowdloans will be unlocked. That means ~10% of the supply will be back in circulation.
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$METIS
Another solid project where big unlocks are gone and should be free to run with low inflationary selling pressure
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$ROSE pumping
Expected, in sight of upcoming cliff unlock (2% of total supply) on 18th February 2023
Team is pushing with AI narrative, and will likely release more news
Would be careful getting closer to the date
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Next steps of our journey
1) Report on upcoming unlock dates of >60 coins available in c.2 days on Substack
2) Discord with unlock alerts by the end of the week. Initially available to Annual Substack subscribers to test it
3) User friendly repository website by the end of May
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As an update, June-22 report on upcoming unlocks of >70 coins will be available by 5th of June on our Substack 👀👀
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The projects with the highest Price / Revenue ratio (source: Token Terminal)
Imagine these multiples for "normal" businesses or public companies..
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Is Solana gonna make it?
Some views on the current situation and future of $SOL after FTX collapse🧵👇
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Another one: $FIDA Dec 2021 unlock
Well, I guess
#ThreeArrowsCapital
and
@cmsholdings
did it again
Dumped hard at the end of the 1year lock-up
“Bonfida has built a (top) full-featured exchange(..), said CMS cofounder Bobby Cho"
You sure bro? Seems like you were not invested LT
Sure would be a shame if someone started plotting bullish VC tweets on a chart and superimposing the coin unlock dates of all their seed bags.
The bottom isn’t in and 99% of you (me included) are not going to profitably scalp these conditions.
There’s a reason I’m still around.
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$STG
@StargateFinance
First unlock on 18th March: team and investors will start unlocking linearly at 4% total supply per month (quite sizable) 🚨🚨
How are whales / smart money preparing?
We screened movements onchain today, and will continue doing so till key date
👇👇🧵
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Pretty crazy what is happening on $ARB
Supposed to have 4y lockup but tokens were distributed 2 weeks after airdrop
1/ 2.694B $ARB(distributed to Offchain Labs Team and Future Team + Advisors) was transferred to ～140 EOA addresses yesterday via address "0x1e70".
#Arbitrum
But according to the docs, all investor and team tokens have a 4-year lock-up period.
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Given $SAND unlock has conflicting sources, we collected some relevant wallets to track, so that you can get notified when it will happen
As a reminder, unlock is very sizable and VCs are up >200x. Given market conditions, a big dump is not unlikely
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$OP
This is crazy
Unlocks were 10x more than reported because of a “mistake”
Crypto space never stops to surprise us
When we first launched the OP token, we announced that the total supply would inflate at a rate of 2% per year. However, when we deployed the contract, the rate was mistakenly set to 20%. Later today, we’ll be updating the contract logic to the intended 2%.
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Saw lot of people talking about a $SUI unlock in a week
That is *wrong*
$SUI unlocks **LINEARLY** until 3rd November 2023 where $SUI will have an Alameda style cliff unlock which will 3x the circ. supply
Check the website
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Seems ouflows from Binance are not massive
Stablecoin balance on the CEX is just -2.92% compared to last week
Four.
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#WallOfShame
: coins with poor unlocks disclosure
$ELFIN
@elfinkingdom
Public sale is today, but team has not shared the vesting schedule of seed and private rounds (confirmed in their Telegram).
Backed by Alameda and Binance Labs
pls fix
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on $GALA pump
If looking to buy for the long term, would still be careful of FDV of ~$2bn
Vesting schedule is linear, with daily distribution halving the 21st of July every year
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Projects we screen where VCs are up the most on their investment
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$AXS
Recent unlock distributed old ERC20 $AXS, which do not trade and cannot be converted to Ronin $AXS as the bridge has been on maintenance for weeks
Selling pressure has yet to come
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Bullish news on $WOO
> burned 705mn $WOO tokens, i.e. over 24% of the total supply
> Team, advisors, investors will vest linearly over 5 years (i.e., vesting period is now ~3 years longer)
$WOO price has moved consequently, demonstrating how much people care about tokenomics
A new era for the $WOO token
As a first step in a series of improvements, WOO Network has burned 705M $WOO tokens - over 24% of the total supply.
Here’s a breakdown of how we are propelling $WOO into a position of strength in the market (1/4)
👉
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Crypto VCs screening by
If we bounce, it might be useful to track their portfolios in case any of them have your coins
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We read
@6thManVentures
report on how token price is impacted by token unlocks
They analyzed 20 protocols yielding over 5000 different unlocks
The chart below shows how price behaves when unlock is close
Also, we summarized in the thread below their main conclusions
🧵🧵🧵
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$NYM
good news today that pumped the price +40%
Be careful friends, tomorrow (3-May) there’s first token unlock ()
#PumpAndDump
? Let’s see
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$IMX - Tokens unlock / vesting schedule
@Immutable
Date: 5-July-22 (today)
% of total supply unlocked: 1% 🚨🚨
(c.15,000,000 tokens)
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New Substack article on $GMT
@Stepnofficial
🏁
Buyers in Private Sale are up 700x on the investment (🚨)
Private Sale tokens will unlock in few months
Supply will increase 1% in May to support "move and earn" program
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In summary, Ava Labs paid a law firm 1% of the AVAX supply to promote litigations vs. competitors like $SOL; through litigations, the law firm gathered private info, then shared to Ava Labs
“Litigation is a competitive tool”
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Interesting stats on $SOL
Ask not for whom the 🔔 tolls.
The avg
@solana
VC is 🆙 4000% ROI.
$SOL seed = $0.04; later rounds = $0.20-$0.25
VCs have EVERY reason to lock in profits & dump:
👉$25m (2.5m $SOL) unlocks on 1/21/23
👉TVL is $300m but MC = $3.6B
👉Highly inflationary emissions = $5B FDV
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$METIS
Major unlocks are gone, hopefully this is ready to fly
Next unlock will be on 13th of August, 1.6% of total supply
Seed / private investors are still up 13x on their investment, but price went down a lot. Not expecting major dumps
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Why tokens unlock / vesting schedule of your coins are so important
Here a thread with some insights (pls note that sometimes we oversimplify)
👇
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People like when projects aren't backed by VCs ["Nobody will dump on us"]
The reality is that most crypto projects require high CapEx for growth and to ensure proper development
Absence of VCs money increases delivery risk and likely reduces investors' IRR [delayed returns]
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$CAW
Key date is LP lock expiration on 17th July
Difficult to understand what will happen (migration? market dump? re-lock? burn? other?)
#CAW
#cawarmy
#ahuntersdream
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Would be careful shorting $SAND anticipating the unlock around the 23rd of February
Liquidity is super thin and price action can easily behave like the last few days
btw, correct source for $SAND unlock data is Huobi and not Binance launchpad
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$DYDX
Agree - 22 February 2023 might be a bloodbath
Dydx absolutely kills it on the revenue side and could get some extra monetary premium running on their own chain, but their inflation schedule makes them uninvestable
Look at this cliff
The dydx token supply basically doubles in Feb
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$APE - Tokens unlock / vesting schedule
@apecoin
Date: September 2022 (first major unlock)
% of total supply unlocked: 3% 🚨🚨
(c.33,000,000 tokens)
Current circulating supply: 28%
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Useful tip:
You can track Alameda $SOL unlock here
You can see the biggest unstaked amount, which could be sold on the market
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Interesting to have a close look to those projects whose price barely move at unlock dates
Sign of strength: evidence that investors / team are fully confident in project future
Currently compiling a list
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Remember tomorrow's $ALICE unlock, which the team tried to obfuscate 😉
Shall we expect another last minute change?
Last minute update from $ALICE team, today in their TG: unlock is not happening anymore today, but on the 15th.
Not super transparent tbh….
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It is not clear how the information showed by $GRT
@graphprotocol
regarding their token unlocks in their website matches with what is happening on chain
Are they acting not transparently?🧵
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Useful tip:
You can easily track the portfolios of main crypto VCs via
@ArkhamIntel
You can use the dashboard below which summarizes VCs portfolios very well, and tracks live any changes they make
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For everybody asking about $SAND upcoming unlock, the date seems unclear as there are 3 conflicting data sources:
1) (the source we used)
2)
3) rumors on TG channel
Would be helpful if
@TheSandboxGame
team could clarify
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Important summary of $FIL balance between inflation and reduction of supply
Circulating supply is only 20% at the moment, but if team nails the "token outflow" part project is destined to be successful
This was heavily requested by community too
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$WLD
@worldcoin
tokenomics
Unlocks of investors and team will start on 24th July 2024 (linear)
Most of the supply will be released between Jul-2024 and Jul-2025 (~40% of total)
For the first year, $WLD should be almost unlocks-free
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Check out our latest update on $METIS unlocks
In May 2022 there will be the biggest unlock left in the vesting schedule and buyers in private / seed sale are up 50x
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Interesting movements on $SAND addresses
Address which received tokens from Genesis allocation (i.e. insiders) moved 21.6mln $SAND to Binance ($15mln) on 9th of January
Price pumped a lot afterwards: would track this wallet to anticipate insiders dump
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Have few invites for
@ArkhamIntel
(Free platform for onchain analysis) to share to followers, so that you can skip the waitlist period
Feel free to comment below if interested
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$ARB
@arbritrum
: vesting schedule
>Team / investors: 1y cliff and 1.2% monthly unlocks each 23rd of the month for 3y
> DAO & users: fully unlocked at Airdrop
>Treasury: depends on governance
🚨First unlock will be on 23-Mar-2024
😲1.2% of tot. supply
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We screened the portfolio companies / investments of the top 15 most active crypto VC funds from 2017
These were seed / private / strategic round investments
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$ARB
@arbitrum
To prepare for the airdrop tomorrow, keep in mind the $ARB implied price if it is valued at $OP FDV
$ARB TVL is ~2x $OP TVL (with part of it related to airdrop farming tho), so $1.14 should represent a sort of a floor price: below that should be a buy
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$WLD
@worldcoin
Interesting disparity in team/investors vesting (3y) vs. community (15y)
Due to low float, FDV is insanely high and bounded to go down with time
Presumably, Team / investors will have opportunity to monetize at higher prices vs. community
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