Reflexivity Research
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.
@vechainoffical
is one of the oldest players in the enterprise blockchain space. Let's take a look at Vechain's architecture and developments around the Vechain ecosystem throughout the bear market:
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Bitcoin price drawdowns from all-time highs:
2011: -93%
2013: -74%
2015: -85%
2018: -84%
2020: -76%
Currently: -73%
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.
@MultiversX
Q2 2024 Update:
After the cryptocurrency bull cycle of 2021, the crypto space has experienced a notable shift in the discussions around scalability and blockchain architecture. As opposed to the early “first generation” design ideas around a single monolithic
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Enhanced RWA Transparency and Tokenization with Cross-Verified ETF Data by
@Jiritsu_Network
:
Jiritsu Network aims to revolutionize the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) by streamlining off-chain asset registration, verification, and tokenization. To encourage broader
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Bitcoin's hash rate has soared to new all-time highs, now 3X from the lows reached during the China mining ban.
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Over the past few months,
@FantomFDN
has been building in stealth and continuing its march towards cementing itself as one of the premier layer 1s. Let’s take a closer look at what’s been happening behind the scenes throughout 2023:
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Wow, Bitcoin transaction fees just hit their highest level of all time.
$23.6 million of fees in one day.
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Chart of the week:
Bitcoin's hash rate has reached a new all-time high. This means that the security of the Bitcoin network is stronger than ever before.
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Overview of
@FantomFDN
's Q1 Developments:
Fantom has long been part of the L1 smart contract “wars,” finding success with its Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) compatibility and novel consensus mechanism that has remained robust and reliable over the years, whereas other L1s have
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Overview of
@MultiversX
's Recent Q4 Developments:
MultiversX’s recent xDay Event has spotlighted MultiversX's commitment to pushing the technological frontier in the blockchain world, announcing a series of performance enhancements and product updates poised to rival any smart
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In case you missed it, be sure to check out our recent overview of
@Aleph__Zero
.
Don't feel like reading the full report? Don't worry we've got you covered:
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Funding in crypto is now down to ~$500 million per month from its $7 billion per month peak in late 2021
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One of the clearest use cases for crypto we foresee achieving product-market fit is in the gaming sector.
Merit Circle offers one of the most interesting ways to gain exposure to this ecosystem
[THREAD]
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A record 67% of Bitcoin's supply hasn't moved in at least a year despite macroeconomic uncertainty
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The second half of 2023 was a major period for
@FantomFDN
. With the Sonic Upgrade enabling faster smart contract execution & synchronization speeds, an accelerator program, and much more; 2024 looks promising for Fantom.
Read our full free H2 overview:
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Here's an overview of fees for each respective Bitcoin ETF filing.
Let the games begin.
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We are excited to announce our partnership with
@tradingview
to bring fundamental crypto research to the platform's userbase of 50 million+ traders/investors:
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The
@0xPolygon
team continues to ship throughout the bear market with new integrations, zkEVM gaining traction, and the announcement of Polygon 2.0.
Let's dive in:
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Overview of Anyone Protocol (
@AnyoneFDN
):
In the nascent field of DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure), the Anyone Protocol (formerly ATOR) stands out thanks to its emphasis on enhancing internet privacy and building out its own decentralized network of relay nodes
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Our FREE 2022 Year in Review/2023 Outlook Report is now live on our website!
40 pages of everything you need to know about the digital asset landscape.
You can also view it by clicking here:
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A record 53.3% of Bitcoin supply has not moved in at least 2 years
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.
@Chainlink
recently launched its Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP), marking not only a significant advancement in its own roadmap but also for the DeFi economy at large.
Let's dive in:
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Overview of
@Aleph__Zero
's Developments Throughout Q1 2024:
Aleph Zero stands out as a cutting-edge, scalable Layer-1 blockchain infrastructure, known for its swift transaction completion, advanced privacy capabilities, and emphasis on attracting businesses. The platform
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In last week's report, we described how Bitcoin miners are under extreme stress.
This morning Core Scientific announced a bankruptcy warning -- plunging the miner's equity down over 75%.
Miners remain the biggest intra-Bitcoin risk to the market in our view.
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.
@Aleph__Zero
Q4 2023 Overview:
Aleph Zero represents an advanced, scalable Layer-1 blockchain platform, characterized by its rapid transaction finality, enhanced privacy features, and focus on both enterprise adoption as well as DeFi and GameFi use cases. The protocol
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There were several big developments for
@avax
in Q4, including an expansion of RWA efforts, a surge in transactions/token burns, and the launch of Project Guardian with JPMorgan.
You can read our full free overview of Avalanche throughout Q4 2023 here:
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We just released our latest report on Microstrategy in a joint effort with the great folks over at
@blockworksres
. Be sure to check it out!
The elephant in the room...
Is MicroStrategy and Saylor's levered BTC bet in trouble?
@WClementeIII
and
@swmartin19
break it down 🧵👇
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2K
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Bitcoin’s price on Black Fridays:
2011: $5
2015: $350
2019: $7,000
2023: $38,000
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Vechain Continues Push for Sustainability
In the ever-evolving world of blockchains and cryptocurrency, VeChain remains consistent in its vision, but nimble and adaptable in its implementation. Throughout its evolution, VeChain has consistently tackled the challenges impeding the
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The Fed is Unable to Cause a Recession. Risk Assets are Yet to Realize This.
Guest report: written by
@rpgoyal_
Markets are always pricing in a range of outcomes for the economy. That pricing bakes in the likely effects of monetary and fiscal policy. The post-Covid cycle in
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One of the areas of the digital asset ecosystem that has seen the most innovation over the last two years is cross-chain interoperability
One of the most interesting projects in this realm is Synapse (SYN)
[THREAD 1/15]
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.
@VechainOfficial
Launches New Marketplace and Governance Developments:
Intro
Over the last few years, one of the driving narratives in the crypto world is how the blockchain world will intertwine with the traditional financial space. Recent developments like the BTC ETF and
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Enterprise blockchains and permissioned dApps have yet to deliver but
@avalabsofficial
’s recent launch, Evergreen Subnets, is both novel and promising:
[THREAD 1/7]
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Last week Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced over $1.1 billion of net inflows.
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.
@Avax
has partnered with
@LegitimateTech
, kicking things off with the launch of NFC-authenticated sneaker collection "Evolution of the Mixtape" with
@PUMA
and
@RocNation
.
Let's dive in:
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One of the most discussed names in the wake of FTX's collapse is Silvergate Bank.
Is there any concern around Silvergate? Let's dive in.
[THREAD 1/15]
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We are excited to share our latest, a 40-page overview of Stablecoin Architecture!
Let's dive into the key takeaways from the report:
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.
@Aleph__Zero
Q2 Overview:
Aleph Zero is blockchain infrastructure unique for its speed and scalability and ZK privacy features. While launched as a Substrate-based layer 1, it is now expanding to the EVM.
In June 2024, the Aleph Zero Foundation launched the testnet for its
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Gaming enthusiasts, be sure to check out our free overview of
@StarAtlas
and dive into the first self-sovereign intergalactic MMO crypto-game:
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.
@WClementeIII
explains why this Bitcoin rally appears to be driven by underlying spot buying
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Overview of
@avax
's Q1 2024 Developments:
Avalanche stands as a foundational L1 protocol offering the necessary framework for the development of performant, low-cost, highly customizable, interconnected blockchains. In 2023, the Avalanche blockchain saw impressive growth, both
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Incredibly excited to release our collaboration with
@ARKInvest
on their Bitcoin monthly report!
1/ Bitcoin's short-term holder cost basis has crossed below its long-term holder cost basis for only the 4th time ever.
This cross historically marks a cyclical bottom.
New edition of The Bitcoin Monthly is officially out, feat guest author
@WClementeIII
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While the crypto market has been moving upward thanks to the news of institutions making a push into the space,
@avax
has been continuing to push out new upgrades, exciting collaborations, and a series of impressive metrics across the board:🧵
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.
@WClementeIII
explains how smaller Bitcoin wallets are accumulating at record pace and Bitcoin’s supply distribution is now healthier than ever before
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Throughout the bear market,
@NEARProtocol
has made strides to solidify itself as one of the most competitive layer-one protocols.
Let's dive in:
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The percentage of Bitcoin futures open interest collateralized with crypto is down to 35% from 70% at its peak.
This is a healthy development for the derivatives landscape as long liquidation events have less convexity.
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How should investors shape their investment frameworks around BTC and ETH correlations to traditional indices/benchmarks and valuation?
[THREAD 1/20]
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Analyzing the current Debt Ceiling debacle and its impact on liquidity over the next few months - a thread:
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Overview of
@OndoFinance
: Future of RWAs?
What is Ondo Finance?
The crypto economy has seen remarkable growth, propelled by the evolution and increased integration of stablecoins like Tether (USDT) and Circle’s USD Coin (USDC). These digital currencies, pegged to stable assets
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In collaboration with
@forestroadco
, we've created a short report covering the events that have transpired in the crypto space with FTX over the last 72 hours:
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Our team just released an overview of
@SkaleNetwork
. Let's take a look at some highlights from the report below:
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Bitcoin transactions with a notional value of $100K or less have been in a steady decline since the exuberant period of early 2021.
We view this partially as a reflection of diminishing retail interest in BTC.
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With just hours left, the past month has been the 2nd strongest for Bitcoin of 2023, with October currently having returned over 25% for holders of BTC.
Let’s unpack what’s going on underneath the hood in the derivatives and market structure landscape - powered by
@VeloData
:
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Overview of
@StarAtlas
:
Since we released our Star Atlas report last month, the team has announced a full 2024 roadmap, including details on their highly anticipated R2.2 release schedule. Here's our latest overview of what the team is building:
In today’s ever-increasingly
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Leveraging
@Avax
’s Subnets,
@avalabsofficial
is building highly customizable, enterprise-ready blockchains today with their new solution,
@AvaCloud
.
Let's dive in:
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Comparing Capital Efficiency on
@Solana
to Ethereum:
The boundaries of technology and finance are being pushed in today’s DeFi sector, catalyzing a transformative era in which protocols look to leverage blockchain technology to outcompete on speed, fees, and efficiency. Within
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Overview of
@NEARProtocol
Recent Developments:
In 2023, the NEAR ecosystem navigated a challenging market landscape while still shipping key technical improvements and furthering its mission of widespread Web3 adoption with several notable applications boasting over a million
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October's CPI breakdown and it's impact on markets - a thread.
This week saw the first substantial miss on projected CPI to the downside and the market reacted with fervour.
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.
@StarAtlas
Q2 Update:
Star Atlas represents a pioneering metaverse initiative developed on the Solana blockchain. It transcends the conventional scope of blockchain-based gaming, presenting a fully immersive virtual universe. This system features multi-dimensional play-to-earn
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With the debt ceiling raise behind us, many participants have been citing this chart of the S&P diverging from "net liquidity" to say that the stock market is overextended, but we believe this is a lack of nuanced understanding.
Here are our thoughts on the state of liquidity:
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Yesterday
@THORChain
crossed $500m in daily trading volume -- here's our Q1 overview:
Intro
The rapid growth of alt layer 1 (L1) blockchains, which began in 2016-2017, has created a huge market opportunity for innovations that enable seamless blockchain interoperability.
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What Constitutes Money Printing?
In 2020, the meme of money printer go brrr took hold of the investment world, spurred by huge amounts of Quantitative Easing occurring from the Fed, leading to M2 Money Supply going higher.
Many viewed this as direct money printing/creation and
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What happened with SVB?
Are there other banks in the same situation as SVB?
What does this all mean for monetary policy?
Find out in our latest (free) report:
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When we hear that the Fed is “hiking rates”, this represents a simplistic explanation.
There are a variety of different market rates representing different sections of the short term funding market. This week we break down the different rates, and what they represent.
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The US trading hour premium that drove Bitcoin higher after Blackrock, Fidelity, and other institutions filed for Bitcoin ETFs, is now gone.
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We just released our latest, an overview of Bitcoin's Q3 performance across both shifts in network activity as well as market structure.
Looking for the main takeaways? Don't worry we've got you covered:
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The Ordinal Effect:
- Higher Taproot Adoption
- Fuller Mempool
- Higher Fees (revenue) for Bitcoin miners
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The long-awaited Fed Pivot is here. Now the important question: What does this mean for asset prices?
We discuss in our latest:
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Q4 was a massive quarter for
@SeiNetwork
. With the launch of their v2 upgrade, Sei is set to shake up the L1 landscape.
You can read our full free quarterly overview here:
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Overview of
@ThenaFi_
:
Over the years, the DeFi sector has witnessed exponential growth, propelled by the advent of liquidity mining programs and the proliferation of DEXs based on the UNI V2 protocol. Despite this progress, the allocation of liquidity incentives has encountered
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2023 was one of the most exciting years for Bitcoin in its 15-year history.
Be sure to check out our free Q4 2023 overview:
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After a regime of Opensea dominance, there have been some interesting developments in the NFT Exchange Landscape:
[THREAD 1/16]
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Recently launched,
@SeiNetwork
has taken steps to separate itself from the pack of alt L1s and L2s by attempting to tackle the trading side of blockchain activity first and foremost.
Let's dive into what they're building:
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One DeFi project that has gone under the radar but has quietly been building throughout the bear market is
@redactedcartel
-- including a governance product, liquid staking offering, and recently announced stablecoin.
Let's dive in:
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.
@BitTorrent
offers an interesting on-chain solution to the realm of file-sharing.
You can read our full free overview here:
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Join us this afternoon for a live Twitter discussion with the Jiritsu team:
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The second quarter was very interesting for Bitcoin with numerous developments across the regulatory landscape, market structure, and core network.
Let's take a look at the key charts/takeaways from our recent Bitcoin quarterly report:
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Curious about the ongoing debt ceiling crisis and what its resolution could mean for markets?
We've got you covered 👇
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Monetary Plumbing and Liquidity Update
Mapping the route out of QT and into an ample reserve regime
As the Fed continues its QT program of removing bank reserves from the system to return to what it deems as being an “ample reserve regime”, the Fed is now beginning to discuss
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.
@Avax
Q2 Overview:
The Avalanche blockchain is looking to continue pushing the Layer-1 (L1) landscape in scalability and sustainability via its subnet ecosystem. To that end, the Avalanche developer community is proposing significant changes to the subnet design with the
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SKALE’s innovative model eliminates the need for gas fees, a common pain point for the Ethereum ecosystem. Instead, the platform employs a subscription-based model where developers pay a fixed fee to access SKALE’s resources (blockspace).
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Aggregate stablecoin supplies are now up $11.87 billion from their October 2023 lows
This signals crypto capital inflows and increased on-chain liquidity
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As part of a push for industry-wide transparency, moving forward Reflexivity Research will be disclosing all positions in any assets covered by our team including Bitcoin.
We also have no outside funding and/or external interests that would potentially alter our objectivity.
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Excited to share our latest report on the State of Liquidity in Crypto Markets, thanks to data provided by
@KaikoData
Can check out the full (free) report below.
Let's dive into the most significant takeaways: 🧵
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Despite turbulence for global financial markets in the first half of the year, TRON remains one of the most widely used layer 1s in crypto.
Let's take a look at developments throughout the first half of the year for
@trondao
:
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Ever since the banking crisis, there has been a clear divergence between USDC and USDT in circulation.
Tether's market share continues to grow as Circle's market share continues to decline.
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You've likely heard market participants refer to the "4-year cycle"
In this free report, we discuss the diminishing effect of the halving, behavioral dynamics, and macro factors that drive Bitcoin's cyclicality.
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Join us on March 22nd in NYC for our first annual Bitcoin Investor Day!
Tickets:
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QRA Update and Implications
As we have entered an era of Fiscal Dominance, the degree to which we run deficits during times of economic expansion, the amount of debt in the financial system, and that higher interest rates make the volatility of fixed income duration higher,
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Last week, the Bank of Japan shocked markets by announcing it would widen its Yield Curve Control policy band from 0.5% on the 10y JGB bond, up to 1%.
What does this mean for financial markets broadly?:🧵
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We have just released our fourth research report, covering: Oil and energy markets, Inflation, Bitcoin volatility, ETH MEV, Decentralized exchanges, and more.
If you aren't signed up, join hedge funds & family offices who subscribe to our research here:
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.
@SeiNetwork
's role in the L1 landscape:
Before diving into Sei, their recent v2 launch, and other recent developments, let's first take a step back and look at the L1 landscape broadly.
To date, Ethereum has established itself as a leading platform indevelopment the smart
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.
@VechainOfficial
July Update: Exploring RWAs
Real-world assets (RWAs) have long intrigued cryptocurrency investors and developers, owing to the vast potential of global markets and the enhancements achievable through tokenization. Traditional markets, characterized by high
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Following the ability to unstake being enabled by the Shapella Upgrade, the percentage of ETH supply that is staked has accelerated to over 22%
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June 2024
@vechainofficial
Update:
Blockchain and the Sustainability Movement
Web3 and blockchain technology have opened up unique economic opportunities, initiatives, and incentive structures in recent years. Cryptocurrency is now a global topic, enabling users to operate
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Exploring Gaming on
@Avax
:
The gaming industry stands at the cusp of a revolution fueled by the principles of Web3 technology. The ability to program and compose virtual gaming goods is reshaping the very foundation of online gaming, hinting at a future where these elements
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The excitement around Blur has catalyzed an NFT resurgence
NFTs have jumped to over 27% of all ETH gas usage
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