Connor Meissner
@ConnorMeissner1
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Data Analyst | @SyracuseU ‘22 G’23 | 2024 #FPLUSA Champion (World Rank: 278) | #SFB12
North Carolina, USA
Joined August 2019
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An added layer to my GW29 fixture analysis. The simulation produced 116 possible GW29 fixture combinations, here are the 10 most likely
Any other insights people are interested in seeing from the simulation?
#FPL
GW29 Fixture Probabilities after Blackburn's win and the release of R4 Replay odds today
Not many changes as our replay estimates were pretty spot on, only surprise was expected AVL-CHE to be closer to 50-50
Hoping to build out the sim for GW34 postponements tomorrow night
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236
#FPL
GW36
124 pts
🌎: 483 -> 162
124 points in a single gameweek?? Can you believe it??? It’s a full house of returns and I couldn’t be more excited! 162nd in the world and 6th in the USA!
Can we hold on during BB37? We’ll find out
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#FPL
GW26
🌎: 691
Surprise! WC Activated
Is this when the all the cool content creators say “play your own game”?
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@FPL_Brandon
All valid points, but people often take these points and think you need a 0.1% owned player to win FPL. It’s a very long season, you can differentiate yourself with smaller risks that don’t blow up your entire season
TL,DR: Yes, but you can still choose your battles
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@CFBRep
I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if the books would have Washington as underdogs to Oregon if they played a 3rd time
1
0
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#FPL
GW24
79 pts
OR: 679 -> 458
Really into the grind now. Decent week considering how template I was, finally getting hurt a little by Saka but the differential defense made up for it
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1
44
#FPL
GW7
74 pts
🌎: 1.7m -> 478k
There we go. Eze to Bowen would’ve made this week so much better, but we’ll take the FT into the likely WC
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42
#FPL
GW23
92 pts
OR: 1.8k -> 679
Squad morale is through the roof atm
2 FTs, 2.2m ITB, very important week ahead
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38
#FPL
DGW25
TC Active
TAA -> Bradley
First time I’ve waken up early for the 5am lineup leaks, back to bed for me 😴
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35
#FPL
GW3
85 pts
🌎: 2.7m -> 1.3m
Mbeumo transfer did wonders, glad to see Eze punish sellers as well
Patience starting to pay off
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#FPL
GW1
Ranked 287th last season, what can we cook up this year?
Really excited for this season!
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Just got this awesome jersey from
@SurpriseShirts
for winning
#FPLUSA
this year! One of the oldest teams in the world!
Thank you to
@FPL_BlackWolf
for running
@FPLUSALeagues
, such a fun league and great community
Setting up my SofaScore alerts for
@StranraerFC
now 😂
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@SeanStats
3am could arguably be better than 6am
If you’re not waking up early regardless, you’re going to bed 3 hours closer to the deadline
5:30pm price changes sound brutally annoying tho
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Every time I’m worried about overly boasting my 287th rank last season, I’m going to think about this guy
I’m 129th in the World. 28th in England.
I’ve only made one transfer.
I don’t watch any content creators.
A tip: balance premium with solid players. 4.5m players will get you no where.
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48
3K
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#FPL
BB37
🌎: 162
MGW -> Gordon
Ruben -> Burn (-4)
Saka -> Foden (-4)
No Ruben news scared me into a -8 less than a minute before the deadline. On the bright side, reduced my exposure to some chasers
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Odds are only giving MU a 59% of beating NFO, with the loser of that game determining the 4th fixture assuming MC beats LUT
The fifth fixture comes in if one of NEW, CHE, or LIV are upset or if BOU is upset and BHA beat WOL. 63% chance at least one of those 4 events occur
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#FPL
BB37
131 pts
🌎: 162 -> 195
🇺🇸: 6 -> 6
The 6am -8 decision cost me 10 points. Sometimes the xMin risks play after all.
A fairly expected tiny red arrow. One more week to bring it home
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22
@SethWalder
Well the Bills are one of the 7 best teams in the AFC, so they should be placed in. No need to play the rest of the season
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#FPL
GW22
OR: 4.1k -> 1.8k
Despite an awful start with a triple CS lost in the 89th, potential target Eze hauling and 82% EO Saka hauling...
WE BOUNCED BACK TO MY HIGHEST RANK EVER
Fantastic week I'd say
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#FPL
GW38
🌎: 195
Gordon -> Luis Diaz
Final gameweek of the season! Been an amazing season!
So appreciative of everyone in the FPL community I’ve had the chance to interact with, y’all are fun!
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#FPL
GW33
93 pts
🌎: 3.3k -> 1.3k
Great week leading into FH34, highlighting the lift FH gives in the weeks surrounding it as much as during it
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#FPL
GW26
42 pts
OR: 691 -> 1.9k
By far my worst negative variance of the season according to FPL Optimized. Scored 6 points less than what my non-WC team would've been
Replacing Douglas with Rashford last minute looms large
All eyes on the FA Cup now
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20
#FPL
GW29
Rashford -> MGW
Kerkez -> Pedro Porro (-4)
No FH, just my third hit of the season instead. A week of survival
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0
19
#FPL
GW4
56 pts
🌎: 1.3m -> 1.1m
Points on the bench hurt, but a fine week to a conservative start to the year
3 FT, might be time to make an aggressive move…
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My first year in
@FPLUSALeagues
and it's been super fun! Highly recommend for any USA based FPL managers next year!
Looked at what rank makes each league. Some interesting finds! Rough year for Gold and it's harder to get out of Bronze than it is to win Gold or Silver!
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2
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#FPL
GW2:
79 points
🌎: 4.4m -> 2.7m
Was around this spot at this point last year iirc
2 FT’s and I might actually have to make a decision this week
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An absolutely amazing group of people. Grittiest team in the league no doubt. Very proud to work with such a great team alongside such a great coaching staff. Slambury’s been waiting for this moment for a long time!!!
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Final day of
@TheNECBL
Regular Season and the Southern Division is still up for grabs! With the last two games left to play between Danbury-Newport and Valley-Mystic, here are the possible seedings for all 4 scenarios!
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#FPL
GW31
🌎: 2.2k
Watkins -> Darwin
Had my heart set on switching Pau out this week, but the Watkins injury gave me an excuse to get a SHU (H) matchup in this week
There’s potential here
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A more comprehensive review later, but for now, a small red arrow to end the year at 278
My third year of FPL in the books, couldn’t have imagined a Top 300 campaign would be in the cards, ending 7th in the USA
A proud moment and super excited for next year!
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@BenCrellin
Probability of X numbers of blanks:
2 - 0.1%
3 - 1.5%
4 - 12.7%
5 - 41.3%
6 - 43.7%
7 - 0.6%
85% chance of 5-6 blanks is the big takeaway
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#FPL
GW29
18 points
2.5k -> 3.2k
Lowest point total of the season and I loved every moment of it
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Awoniyi casually tripling my rank in the 89th minute 😕
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#FPLUSA
Champion! Incredibly honored to end up on top in such an amazing community! Watch out ELITE division!
#FPLUSA
OVERALL 🇺🇸
🏆 CHAMPION 🏆
@ConnorMeissner1
- 2655 🥉
2.
@FPLFutbolmetrix
- 2647 💠
3.
@fpl_flair
- 2631 🥉
4.
@VicAlvira
- 2615 🥉
5.
@fpl_nando
- 2601 🥉
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Had an absolute blast preparing for and competing in the inaugural
@CuseAnalytics
Blitz this week! Fantastic competition and very impressed with all of the work produced across the 20 teams!
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Eclipse was absolutely incredible, truly truly a once in a lifetime experience
10 out of 10
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@BigGameBoomer
Crunched some numbers (thread in my bio) but I had them at 15 and Auburn at 16. Lower than the committee but still deserved to host
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#FPL
FH34
🌎: 1.3k
Balanced maintaining EV and trying to chase some rank, stayed relatively safe but will have nightmares if White outscores Gabriel
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@bfreshdangz
@domluszczyszyn
Nope, Canes were the better team in the ECF. But that’s playoff hockey, you can outplay your opponent and get swept
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Betting odds were released and they're giving a lot of hope to the underdogs, so some fixture probabilities have moved around a bit
Odds say Man Utd is in for a fight vs Forest
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BB37 Bus Team
Rank: 162
FT: 1 ITB: 1.1m
One move is straightforward. After that, it’s a bit of a mess thanks to a certain someone
What do y’all think?
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#FPL
GW35
84 pts
🌎: 674 -> 483
Right back to where I was when I played WC26. Truly grateful for how great of a season it’s been so far. Just 3 more gameweeks to go 😢
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Using some newly learned probabilistic pairwise modeling techniques, I’ve started to create my own resume rankings for college basketball bracketology. I put the link in my bio and will tweet periodic updates on changes that occur as results happen. March is coming 👀
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Looking forward to presenting my research at such an amazing conference! Should be a great day of presentations!
One day away from
#MSAM22
and there's still time to register so you can see folks like
@didonatoollie
,
@JohnnyAsel
,
@greveanalytics
,
@ConnorMeissner1
,
@hassanrafique_
, and
@bburkeESPN
speak!
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#FPL
GW22
OR: 4.1k
9.3 ITB
Roll
Was very tempted to bring in a midfielder like Eze so I didn’t have to start Palmer this week, but think it’s best to hold for info, particularly Haaland info
I’m ready to be hurt again by captaining Alvarez
Chip strategy in the air rn
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0
10
#FPL
GW30
70 pts
3.2k -> 2.2k
Pleasantly surprised, differentials put in the work. Will be very interesting to see if I can hang with the people wildcarding
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0
10
#FPL
GW36
🌎: 483
ITB: 1.1m
Solanke -> Isak
Less and less permutations to consider and decision making becomes much more straightforward for the rest of the season (at least until I'm solving game theory equations GW38 to try to win certain mini-leagues)
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@BenCrellin
A lot of people are saying it’s an amazing video game ending but not a great show ending and that actively playing the game as the character vs passively watching changes the ending’s effect
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0
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Early chip strategy thoughts for my team:
TC25 or 28🔒
BB37 likely
If only 4 fixtures, FH29🔒
If FH29, then WC34
If there’s 5 fixtures, considering FH34
If FH34, WC29 could work better than WC30/31 in some cases
WC27 should be considered regardless, can’t commit to it yet
Possible combos down from 116 to 63
Great reminder as you plan that the most likely scenario only has a 1 in 4 chance of happening. If you plan for the "predicted blanks", you leave yourself a ~75% of changing gears GW27
What could happen is as important as what should happen
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Joined the FPL Analytics Discord recently. Noticed a lot of work I do and post here is usually being done simultaneously or a little after on there. Seems like I’m wasting my time a little in that regard
Also interesting to see how my content influences other people’s content
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@BenCrellin
2020 - Bill O’Brien was fired from the Texans on October 5 and Slaven Bilic was sacked from West Brom on December 16
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@SurvivorQuotesX
@itsyamilpr
Revote with just Maryanne and Yam Yam to get a distinctive majority?
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@CTowersCBS
And this is why I think removing kickers (and other variance reducing rules) depends on the league
Serious leagues full of strong competitors (where skill level margins are razor thin) should reduce variance
Unbalanced “home leagues” could benefit from the extra variance
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@MatthewBerryTMR
My friend had to go on a date with this Squishmallow 😂
I’d say the date went well, Squishmallow looks happy!
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#FPL
GW28
70 pts
🌎: 4.2k -> 2.5k
Back on track, ending the red arrow streak. This week had my most neutral variance of the season so far
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0
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Now that I’ve seen people discussing this topic more openly this season, I feel comfortable revealing this was one of the ways my team differed from many analytically based teams last season
I’m sure many people factor price changes in their EV, but it didn’t seem widely known
Sure! Right now in FPL, you can purchase about 0.3-0.35 points each GW for every £1M you spend.
This means that avoiding a £0.1M drop before GW2 should yield an average of comfortably more than 1 point across the rest of the season.
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135
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The US Government failed their people today. Simple as that.
0
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@fplreview
@FPL_Gundo
I was thinking the same thing, but I couldn’t phrase it as eloquently as you
1
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GW35
🌎: 674
Darwin -> Jackson
Into the home stretch. Feel like I’m the only person not on WC or taking hits
Considered a hit to do MGW -> Newcastle mid in case Haaland is out, but decided to take my chances
0
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Quick
#EuroFantasy
R16 update
🌎: 12k
Still got WC in my pocket
I do enjoy how easy it is to play this game casually, especially when budget is never a problem
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@BenCrellin
And AFCON and Asia Cup will be halfway through the Round of 16, meaning we’ll have a better idea when Salah and Son return
0
0
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After all of our whining and complaining, the two most deserving teams end up making the title game after all
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#FPL
GW5
🌎: 1.1m
3 FT
ITB: 0.8m
Haaland -> Solanke
B. Fernandes -> Salah
Van de Ven -> TAA
(All before price changes)
Played conservative to start, now this is the first big move in the quest for another Top 300
0
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@JayCuda
I was wondering how you’d classify the “city center” of New England. Makes sense it would just default to the largest New England city
1
0
7
The odds of a 44.6% 3-pt shooter going 25-27 (92.6%) is 0.00002%. We just witnessed a literal one in a million performance.
Sabrina Ionescu (
@sabrina_i20
) just set the all-time record for NBA or WNBA with a score of 37 PTS in the FINAL ROUND of the
#Starry3PT
Contest to be crowned the NEW 3-PT CHAMPION 🏆 |
@starrylemonlime
884
10K
40K
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0
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Fantasy Football season officially starts now! The slow drafts are underway for
#SFB12
and I’m so excited so be participating in the Rochester Division! I’ll be posting periodic updates in this thread as I draft from the first overall slot. So with the first overall pick…
1
1
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#FPL
GW30
Rank: 3.2k
Doughty -> Ruben
Going to be fairly differential from here to the end it looks like. What could go wrong?
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Hey all, today is National Girls and Women in Sports Day!
Sports are powerful, sports are for everyone, and as female participation in sports continues to increase year after year, it’s important to recognize the leaders and participants in our life that are making it happen
0
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@JrockBones
@minakimes
I successfully convinced myself to not waste my time optimizing this game because the time for data collection wasn’t worth it. Now that data is here…
0
0
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Using past years to look at the quality of teams that would be added to the UCL Group Stage as a result of the expansion from 32 to 36 teams in 2024. I like it. Brings in elite teams normally squeezed out in elite countries while still giving a couple spots to lower leagues
1
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#FPL
GW24
Szobo -> Jota
Solanke -> Darwin
A very template team for my first deadline in the top 1k
Let’s ride
0
0
6
#FPL
GW27
🌎: 1.9k
Hwang -> Palmer
Fernandes -> Maddison (-4)
No key cup upsets puts my early WC strategy in a tough spot, paired with poor GW26 variance… we’re in a tough spot… second hit of the year
0
0
6
For context, 10.9 seconds would rank you 1,379th in the NCAA last year
0
0
6
#FPL
GW25
OR: 433 -> 691
First red arrow of the new year. Just kind of a meh GW
Solanke to Darwin a couple weeks ago really hurt, heart told me not to do it, but I don't play the game with my heart
I anticipate the next 3-4 GWs making or breaking my season
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Hey all, not posting GW29 fixture probabilities tonight. No point given they will be confirmed tomorrow
If you’re still curious to see updated percentages, I believe some bigger accounts that started posted them recently will likely continue to do so
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@philipgalati4
Syracuse also beat VT, who beat UNC, who beat Wake, who beat Syracuse, showing that Syracuse is better than Syracuse
0
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NHL is back! With the 24-team playoff officially announced, I looked how it affects the playoff odds around the league. After running nearly 100,000 simulations using
@masseyratings
, it became apparent the new format may be a lot more unfair than expected. Comment what you think!
1
0
6
#FPL
GW25 Bus team
1 FT, 0.6 ITB
Had a general idea of what I wanted to do but now idrk, probably not looking at concrete decisions until Friday night
0
0
6
Having
@fpl_flair
and
@sertalpbilal
2 and 3 right behind me is a little intimidating ngl 😅
#FPLUSA
OVERALL 🇺🇸
1.
@ConnorMeissner1
- 1568 ➖ 🥉
2.
@fpl_flair
- 1554 ➖ 🥉
3.
@sertalpbilal
- 1538 🔼 💠
4.
@SetiBurna
- 1533 🔼 🥉
5.
@FPLfrasier
- 1531 🔼 💠
Drafthound Managers of the Week -
@fpl_flair
🥉 &
@FplRuso
🥇 (98)
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1
0
6
@BenCrellin
538 Preseason Expectation vs Current Projection:
Arsenal: 5th -> 2nd
Brighton 8th -> 6th
Fulham 18th -> 10th
Newcastle 13th -> 3rd
2
0
6
The officiating in this Cuse-FSU game has been absolutely terrible. You can NOT miss that obvious of a hold on such an important play.
0
1
6
#FPL
GW29 Fixture Probabilities after Bournemouth's 5-0 win over Swansea
Surely going to shake up everyone's strategy...
0
0
5
@BenCrellin
Arsenal: 61 -> 85 (+24)
Brighton: 54 -> 62 (+8)
Fulham: 36 -> 53 (+17)
Newcastle: 47 -> 73 (+26)
1
0
5