AnilVohra1962 🇬🇧🇨🇦🇺🇸
@AnilVohra1962
Followers
6,439
Following
462
Media
1,368
Statuses
12,319
Retired rates options (gamma) trader. Macro & markets. Tri National. Devout foodie. Neapolitan Pizza, Focaccia. MAGA BLOCKED.
Victoria, BC (Ex Westport, CT)
Joined January 2021
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Garbage
• 856596 Tweets
River
• 311445 Tweets
Valencia
• 309719 Tweets
Yankees
• 209724 Tweets
Dodgers
• 196182 Tweets
SÃO PAULO TOMORROW
• 133133 Tweets
Gaga
• 131417 Tweets
Mineiro
• 100227 Tweets
#WorldSeries
• 95330 Tweets
Luka
• 82672 Tweets
Monumental
• 69505 Tweets
Freddie Freeman
• 56519 Tweets
Borja
• 43315 Tweets
#WWENXT
• 41350 Tweets
Camila
• 39562 Tweets
ヤンキース
• 38861 Tweets
フリーマン
• 37392 Tweets
Gallardo
• 37071 Tweets
ポケポケ
• 36924 Tweets
#RoçaAFazenda
• 35901 Tweets
Copa Libertadores
• 35900 Tweets
#DWTS
• 33526 Tweets
Pity
• 32751 Tweets
Volpe
• 30584 Tweets
Mookie
• 25920 Tweets
#超特急DayDay
• 21246 Tweets
Luana
• 16018 Tweets
Sidney
• 15542 Tweets
Colidio
• 13502 Tweets
Meza
• 13319 Tweets
Hudson
• 13157 Tweets
Deyverson
• 12676 Tweets
Kyrie
• 12212 Tweets
Everson
• 10157 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
Investing vs trading (Thread)
1/x
A) Investing and trading are not the same.
B) Split your investable assets into three portfolios:
1) Core/LT
2) Trading
3) Speculative
How much you put in each portfolio depends on your ability to replace it (ie age and income)…
3
19
126
Locals barely escape from being buried alive at a Chinese cobalt mine in DR Congo, the entrance of which got sealed off in a landslide. Such accidents are common at Chinese run mines in Africa.
120
590
2K
Option Market Anomalies (Thread)
250 million contracts traded hands this week, the highest weekly volume in history. What you’ve got is a situation where the tail is wagging the dog.
This is a significant event that deserves close attention.
1/
46
299
1K
There’s a lot of misinformation about cross border flows and SWIFT. Here’s a clarification
SWIFT is a secure messaging system.
If you want to send USD from Chase NY to TD Toronto here’s the process:
1) Chase sends a message via SWIFT instructing where the funds are to be sent
13
187
893
Insider Sales to Buy ratio hits 63!
Insiders are dumping but you should buy because you know more than they do about their companies. 😂😂😂
via
@hmeisler
33
158
614
When the basic set of assumptions on which the market is based are violated, funky things happen. Remember XIV?
How about negative oil prices?
Gentlemen, strap on your seat belts. It’s going to be epic.
24/END
24
24
443
According to the Q ratio, developed by James Tobin who won the Nobel prize for it, equities with a current Q ratio of 1.90 are overvalued by 156% to the long term mean (Q ratio 0.74) making it the first time to be overvalued by 3 std dev, the greatest amount ever.
2/2
14
79
279
Pro Tip: if you need to transfer money across borders, don’t transfer round numbers, since everyone does that. Instead transfer an oddball number, with pennies, say $101,234.56
That’s likely the only such transaction amount hitting the bank that day so it’s much easier to find.
8
25
264
Druckenmiller
May 1st, 2023
USC MBA Graduation
Time: 1h 6m
Guide to the video
0m - 14m
Generational change
Baby boomer retirement
Declining birth rate
Spending on entitlement up
Contributors down
Fiscal gap
Interest expense makes matters worse
1/
6
43
247
He is not buying TWTR. He doesn’t have the cash (stocks yes, cash no).
He’s creating a bid for it into which he will unload his 10% holding for 50% gain and leave the muppets holding the bag.
Those who don’t understand his tactics deserve what they get.
🤯
@elonmusk
:
“Twitter needs to be transformed as a private company. (…) I am offering to buy 100% of Twitter for $54.20 per share in cash, a 54% premium over the day before I began investing in Twitter and a 38% premium over the day before my investment was publicly announced”
1
25
250
19
24
232
@MichaelAArouet
5. Largest producer and exporter of both oil and gas
6. Strongest military with largest supply of nuclear weapons
7. Most global trade is done in EUR
8. Reserve currency not just for the world but the entire universe
9. Largest producer and holder of gold
10. 😂😂😂
12
4
227
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index rises to 1.57 (0 is neutral), a level seen in only four times during the last 30 years:
1) LTCM collapse
2) Dotcom bubble bursting
3) GFC
4) Covid
In every case VIX hit atleast 45. During the last two spikes, it hit 80.
14
62
224
Bull’s 4 Stage Strategy for dealing with Recessions:
1) A recession is not likely, SO BUY. 😂
2) If there is a recession, it’s likely to be a soft landing, SO BUY. 😂
1/2
3
34
217
Every cross border transaction must be cleared by the central bank of the country whose currency it is in. Given that 88% of global transactions are in USD, the Fed has a huge involvement with settlement of global trade.
12
26
190
China to lose manufacturing to other Asian countries for the same reason it gained it from the West.
via
@TheEconomist
12
71
189
Apple Halted M2 Chip Production in January Amid 'Plummeting' Mac Sales. So much for the big ramp up.
11
40
176
@EffMktHype
Market will gap sharply at some point. My guess is down, but that reflects my bias.
3
5
167
Priorities
My boss used to regularly remind us that:
“It’s not about being right, it’s about making money.”
He said, “the biggest problem with smart people is that they get too caught up in being right often at the expense of making money.”
5
17
165
Options theory assumes that the actions of the option trader don’t affect the underlying. Given banks delta hedging of options risk, this is clearly not true.
However, if the scale of options trading is small relative to that in the underlying,…
2/
2
11
150
What’s going to happen when all the recent inflows, which exceed the combined inflows since 2001, get nervous and decide to exit?
What happens if they do it when the bid isn’t very deep (which is very likely)?
The investment landscape is set up for a wipeout.
4
25
146
By far the most beautiful wedding I’ve ever seen. The couple is my daughter and her new husband.
39
0
133
like it has been historically, the assumption is largely true. Funky things happen when these oft forgotten assumptions underlying the market are violated.
Let me give you an example.
In the early 90’s, I remember a client asking us for a bid on a $200m call..
3/
1
8
122
@EricTopol
Really? India is mostly vegetarian. Perhaps you’ve forgotten how badly they got hit with Covid.
11
4
123
My boss asked why I was losing so much money. I explained. He didn’t care. He wanted it to stop and was really pissed that some client had outsmarted the street.
That’s what happens when the options volume exceeds that in the underlying.
14/
2
4
120
Pension Fund Hedging (Thread).
US pension funds have had an assumed return of 6% since the late 90’s.Getting such returns in USTs was impossible. That pushed them further into equities. They also began utilizing more aggressive derivative strategies in fixed income.
1/
4
27
117
My dream trade had turned into a nightmare.
The client had used the violation of the principle that option trading doesn’t affect the underlying against us by making us fight each other. Between us, we had eliminated the very volatility we has paid for.
13/
1
5
112
Perma Bull Macroeconomics
2000 - 2020
The economy runs on trucks. Truck tonnage is the best gauge of the economy. SPX makes sense given truck tonnage.
Post 2020
Truck tonnage means nothing. The market is all tech.
Now I understand the change.
via
@ISABELNET_SA
10
27
106
10dma of SPX Net New Highs (pink) hits level (red) that has often marked peaks of Bear Market Rallies. SPX (black) for comparison.
2
13
105
Tesla is dead
🤖 Mercedes has certified that their technology meets the Nevada 'minimal risk condition' requirement that requires a Level 3 or higher 'fully autonomous'.
Note: Tesla's Autopilot or General Motors' Super Cruise are only classified up to SAE Level 2.
1
18
80
6
9
100
Beware of the disconnect. Either the economy has to take a huge jump, or SPX will realize the vacuum below it. This relationship suggests SPX <2500.
Via
@ISABELNET_SA
7
26
102
In a Bear market, the majority of the decline comes AFTER the Fed begins to cut rates.
3
20
101
He said it was just guys like me. How many, I asked. All five of you. We were the rates options traders of the five Canadian chartered banks.
We were stepping in front of each other so much, this bond never moved. Though the market was moving 30bps a day, this bond never moved.
1
5
100
Yes, the system is very cumbersome and outdated which is why cross border transfers are so slow.
3
10
96
Dollar strength is inversely proportional to SPX earnings because:
1) foreign sales decline
2) competition from foreigners for domestic customers increases
3) earnings from foreign operations translated back into USD are lower
via
@ISABELNET_SA
3
26
94
Stanley Druckenmiller interview with
Tony Pasquariello , head of Goldman’s hedge fund coverage.
Thanks to
@Muggs00454738
for bringing the clip to my attention.
2
20
95
Equities are more overvalued now than at the Dotcom peak.
With the Q1 GDP third estimate and the June close data, we now have an updated look at the popular "Buffett Indicator" -- the ratio of corporate equities to GDP.
The current reading is 162.5%, up from 152.5% the previous quarter.
1
6
22
7
16
92
on a Canadian way off the run short bond. Like today, because of Fed activity short rates were volatile. Canadian rates were more volatile than those in the US.
This being an off the run meant it was even more volatile than the benchmark. The entire issue was only $1.1b in size.
1
5
89
he began to buy to cover his outstanding calls. It was wild. Some mornings, I’d start the bid 10 points higher than last night. On the way up, I sold out some of my longs, but I still held $300m at the end.
On expiry, we exercised our call giving us $1.3b of a $1.1b issue.
22/
1
3
89
Two of the three components of GDP have rolled over. If the consumer goes, so does the economy.
Via
@RobinBrooksIIF
5
22
86
Per
@hussmanjp
, stocks need to decline:
30% to have SPX return match UST10Y
55% to have SPX return = UST10Y +5% risk premium
60% to have SPX return = UST10Y +10% risk premium
He correctly called the extent of declines in 2000-2002 and 2007-2009
8
19
86
He said yours even before I got the price out.
I now owned a call on $1b of a $1.1b issue. No one would touch this orphaned bond.
I started driving the price down. The puzzled client asked what’s going on. Everyone told him they were out. He asked me.
19/
1
4
85
My losses were mounting, but my boss hung by me.
The heads of the 3 other banks were happy to have gotten rid of the dog. The head of the desk of the 4th bank was ready to kill his options trader. The trader called and said he’d sell it my price. I told him I wasn’t there.
17/
1
5
85
Delivery kept failing. Slowly, we’d put out a bond here or there. Sometimes, it would get lifted before the price made the screen. We came out just fine though we had to hold the bonds till maturity.
23/
2
3
85
I told him it felt like others had the same trade. Silence.
The client who was long this bond had found a way to pocket the premium and dump his bonds on us. When the price started plummeting, he began dumping the bonds. I was the only buyer. Once I bought a few hundred million,
1
3
85
Financial liquidity defined as major CB (Fed, ECB, BOJ) balance sheets in USD - RRP - TGA
versus SPX.
All it takes now will be a prick to pop the bubble. When it happens, no one remember this instead citing seasonality, chart patterns and the prick that set off the decline.
11
29
82
SPX is near 4 standard deviations, or 131%, above its detrended regression, the highest such deviation ever (since 1871)
Part 2 of 2
4
29
78
the issue sprung to life, but it wasn’t dealers short desks trading it. It was guys like me, derivatives traders.
We, derivative traders, were always the outsiders in the bond market. Did I know him, I asked. He said, very well. I had to know. So, I pressured him further.
9/
1
3
82
I asked him, was it one guy stepping in front, or a bunch of people. He said it was just one. I asked him who. He said he couldn’t tell me. But he added that it was weird. This was an off-off-off the run issue that just didn’t trade. Then suddenly last week,…
8/
1
5
82
I began to march up the price of the bond.
On days the market was up, this was up more. When the market was down, this was up. At first he kept selling. I bought, selling futures against it to keep my rate risk in line. As bond prices rose (rates fell),
21/
2
3
81
He wrote a common abbreviation for a first name on his napkin, turned it over and slid it to me. He got up, said good night and left.
I flipped over the napkin. It was my buddy, the options trader at the bank across the street.
Why was he stepping in front of me?
10/
1
3
81
2) Chase sends the USD to the Fed via the Fedwire.
3) Fed collects all payments sent to it and sorts them by country destination
4) On the basis of the SWIFT instructions in 1, Bank of Canada makes a claim at the Fed.
5) when the amount given to the Fed destined for Canada
1
8
82
That’s exactly what the client counted on. But, that’s not the way it ended.
In speaking to his counterparts, my boss found out that the options desks of all the other banks were hurting too. He asked me how I’d do if my position was $1b and no one else had it.
15/
1
5
79
I bid up for it. Not surprisingly, we won. I was young and cocky figuring I was a total genius buying this thing. It was going to be a money machine.
Things started out well, but then something started to go wrong. One morning, the market shot up violently,
6/
1
4
78
I told him, I’d make a killing.
He suggested I approach my counterparts and buy them out.
First two paid me money vs the mark to take it off their hands. 3rd wanted mid. Done. 4th figured out my game and wanted more. I told him he risked screwing himself. A week went by.
16/
1
4
78
He asked where I was. I showed him a price way back. He told me there had to be mistake. I told him that was my price and he could leave it if he didn’t like it.
I thought he was going to cry. I told him I’d show him mid for a yes or no.
18/
2
4
78
Nasdaq price is not supported by breadth.
It reminds me of Wylie Coyote having run past the edge of the cliff, his feet spinning furiously in mid air, till he realizes that there is nothing below him, his face saddens before the inevitable happens.
Via
@ISABELNET_SA
9
22
76
Given the small size of the issue and its off the run status, it didn’t trade continuously. It gapped.
I figured that owning a good chunk of a small issue would give me effective control, so rather than fading my price for the relatively large size (about a fifth of the issue),
1
3
76
Equity bulls don’t realize how harmful this powerful rally is to their long term interests. The Fed is on a mission to tame wild animal spirits. This week has only proven that they are alive and well. This will only harden Fed’s resolve to bring it under control.
9
5
77
Chinese PPI:
- is a big concern since it feeds into the West’s CPI
- is down for the 2nd month, suggesting same will happen to West’s inflation, though there is a lag
via
@Sino_Market
5
24
74
Bullish 😂
$SPX is expected to report a Y/Y earnings decline of -6.6% for Q1 2023, which would be the largest decline since Q2 2020 (-31.8%).
#earnings
,
#earningsinsight
,
8
55
149
7
9
75
He must have done the same trade. Evidently, I didn’t get quite the exclusive deal I thought I had. Soon, that one issue froze. Yields went up and down.
It was pandemonium. Yet the bond I was long was stuck. I ask my bond broker who else was involved.
11/
2
3
73
When things are good, he’s all for capitalism.
When things go wrong, he’s all for socialism.
Basically, the gains are all his, the losses should be shared by all of us.
The failure of
@SVB_Financial
could destroy an important long-term driver of the economy as VC-backed companies rely on SVB for loans and holding their operating cash. If private capital can’t provide a solution, a highly dilutive gov’t preferred bailout should be considered.
3K
887
5K
8
7
70
I put up a cheap offer to get the party started. But,rather than getting lifted immediately, someone offered lower.
It didn’t feel right. Every time, I’d put in a bid or offer someone would step in front of me. Frustrated, I told my bond broker we needed to go out for a drink.
7/
1
3
69
matches the amount claimed by the Bank of Canada, the Fed transfers the fund.
6) the Bank of Canada sends the aggregate owed to each chattered bank to that bank
7) each bank uses the SWIFT messages it received to allocate the money to each of the correct accounts.
4
8
71
The widening separation of these two lines, like crack cocaine, is very appealing at first but eventually leads to the destruction of society.
Via
@EpsilonTheory
4
11
72
Since the use of implementation of Quantative measures by global CBs, the balance sheets of the CBs have been the predominant driver of equity markets.
Blue: Assets in USD of:
Fed - TGA - RRA
BOJ
ECB
Red: SPX
Focus on the CBs; the rest doesn’t matter much right now.
4
18
70
Tell me you don’t understand derivatives without saying that.
The global derivatives market is a $2+ QUADRILLION (2,000+ TRILLION) ticking time-bomb. When banks fail, derivatives won't just unwind in an orderly fashion. Few people understand this.
These are some of the top U.S. banks ranked by derivatives exposure (double-digit TRILLIONs).
222
1K
3K
5
4
70
Stanley Druckenmiller says he'd be 'stunned' if recession doesn't happen in 2023, adding that “our central case is for a hard landing”.
Watch the 2m clip here:
7
19
67
Bank credit growth (red) turns negative for the 2nd time in 50 years. The other time was the GFC.
Traditionally, expansions see easy money and recessions see tight money. But, it doesn’t go negative.
Buckle up for a bumpy 2024.
8
11
69
In 1970, a home cost 1.7 times the annual income.
In 2022, a home cost 7.1 times the annual income.
Over the 52 years, homes have gone up four times as much as incomes.
1970 Median Home Price: $17,000
1970 Median Income: $9,870
2022 Median Home Price: $440,000
2022 Median Income: $61,937
🧐
229
782
5K
14
13
68
There is a BIG gap there yet to be filled.
And that’s assuming no recession.
via
@ISABELNET_SA
4
13
66
Opinion:
If the US had three things, it could be the greatest country on earth:
1) universal healthcare
2) reasonably priced higher education
3) common sense gun control
I am a US citizen and have lived there for over 20 years.
18
4
65
Fed data updated today (Wednesday)
Fed liquidity (blue) vs SPX (red). Gap is getting to level seen in August.
Fed liquidity = Fed balance sheet - Treasury General Account (TGA) - Reverse Repurchase Agreements (RRA)
5
9
64
Remember the much touted Golden Cross (50dma crossing above 200dma) at the start of the month.
It occurred the day before the Bear market rally hit its peak of 4180. Since then SPX is down >4%.
3
8
62
Bear Porn:
The 150y mean of real SPX prices shows the current mean to be 1300. That’s just to give you an idea of how far from the historical norm we are.
via
@ISABELNET_SA
3
18
64
Owner’s Equivalent Rent (OER) is a measure of how much a home would rent for. The gap between it and house prices is a measure of how rich home prices are. By this measure, home prices are more overvalued now than at any point in the last 100 years.
Via
@LoganMohtashami
6
10
63
If today was so bullish, why were SPX net New Highs (pink) at -3 and look like they are rolling over?
8
7
63
Blackrock’s NVDA stake:
182m x $470 = $85.5b
Gain on revenue beat:
$85.5b x 11% = $9.4b
Cost of loan to facilitate revenue beat: $2.3
Return on $2.3b loan = 409%
Assumes BlackRock sold its stake at the peak.
Wall Street trading at its finest.
SORRY FOLKS 🤯🔝
CoreWeave:
Is backed by $NVDA
Buys $2.3B in $NVDA chips
With $2.3B LOC financed by Blackrock
Using the the $2.3B $NVDA chips as collateral
Blackrock owns 182M shares of $NVDA
$NVDA claims $2.3B data center beat
$NVDA gaps up 11% in AH - of which ALL was unwound
185
481
2K
3
14
63
10 Rules for investors
By Bob Farrell
Head of Research
Merrill Lynch
1) Markets revert to mean over time
2) Excess one way leads to excess the other way
3) Excesses are never permanent
4) Market corrections don’t go sideways
1/
2
3
60
Fed, asset values and inflation (Thread)
Since 2009, investors have assumed that the Fed is their friend and that it had written a put providing a floor to asset values. That has all changed now. The Fed has done an about turn and is now investors enemy.
From Credit Suisse’s Zoltan:
Powell’s Volcker Moment
Bill Dudley, former president of NY Fed, the Fed’s market facing arm:
“The Fed will have to shock markets to achieve the desired response”
“It’ll have to inflict more losses on stocks and bond investors than it has so far”
2
4
39
5
9
60
Perma Bulls will tell you that it’s a broad based rally. If you call 3% of the stocks accounting for over 100% of the market gain a “broad based rally”, then they are right.
3
10
57
REMIDER
The Dotcom Crash saw the Nasdaq mount eight bear-market rallies of at least 18%, including four gains of at least 30%, and one 56% advance, all of which ultimately proved temporary.
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”George Santayana
4
7
59
The Bear market hasn’t begun. So far, we’ve just gone sideways for two years.
Guess where the SPX was at the end of April a year ago. Then guess where the SPX was at the end of April a year before that...
#ViolentlySideways
88
207
1K
11
3
58
The most important chart right now.
The amount of money (M2) in the economy has DECLINED for the first time in atleast 60 years. It is now down 2.5% YOY. As prices are rising (inflation), the total amount of money is declining. What do you think will happen to asset prices?
5
9
57
What if SPX collapsed all the way back to its 20y trend?
#AskingForAFriend
via
@ISABELNET_SA
6
12
57
Cathie’s math:
Powell’s hikes (1.5%)
are three times greater than
Volker’s hikes (10%)
Math like that might explain why her ARKK is sinking (down 75%)
Volcker doubled the Fed funds from 10% to 20% in less than a year. Powell’s Fed has increased the funds rate 7-fold in the last year and is pointing to another double from here. Its moves already are more draconian than Volcker’s.
353
64
850
9
1
55
Yet another warning sign.
It does NOT mean that a correction is imminent,
just that the odds of one is rising.
via
@jsblokland
3
18
55
How many of them had the Fed hiking rates and reducing its balance sheet at the same time?
Answer: zero
Focus on what is relevant not on cherry picked events in hindsight.
After a >20% drop, the 200-d inflected upwards this wk, with the 50-d above it. Here are the 8 prior times in the past 40 yrs
9
37
170
5
8
55
From spending over 20y as a derivatives trader, I can tell you that the most common error most good traders make is over trading. The risk/reward for retail traders is much worse. The ONLY exception is trading the underlying when you are long gamma and delta hedging your risk.
4
4
56
Believe it or not, I agree with his call for SPX 6000.
The only difference is the timetable. He says it’ll happen in a couple of months (which he has been saying since 2021). I say it’ll be in a decade.
7
2
56
ProTip:
Anytime he says,
“Cash is trash”,
get into cash immediately.
(You’re welcome)
6
3
52
Cathie’s investment strategy unmasked.
One of these is Goldman Sachs’s non-profitable tech index.
The other is $ARKK.
22
59
416
5
4
52
Bank Deposits (Red) have fallen sharply.
Many people are interpreting this as a weakness in the banking system. That is wrong.
Note that most of the decline is coming from the largest 25 banks (blue).
Bank deposits are declining because of a few reasons:
1/
3
4
55
The Dollar, the world’s reserve currency (Thread)
I have read much recently about the impending demise of the Dollar as the world’s reserve currency that I want to address.
To replace the USD as the world’s de facto Reserve Currency, it takes two things:
1/
15
11
54