Angel Ubide
@AngelUbide
Followers
7,070
Following
638
Media
41
Statuses
3,571
Back in markets, global macro. Author of "The Paradox of Risk". Former Senior Fellow @piie & economist @IMFnews . Views my own. Soccer player & coach, A license.
Washington DC/NYC/London/Spain
Joined April 2012
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
North Carolina
• 890417 Tweets
Hurricane Helene
• 654944 Tweets
#JACKANDJOKEREP4
• 409840 Tweets
EP4 U STEAL MY HEART
• 367259 Tweets
FEMA
• 306232 Tweets
#FreeMoraraKebaso
• 195015 Tweets
Dikembe Mutombo
• 117072 Tweets
Meat Eaters Will Go To Hell
• 99778 Tweets
Valdosta
• 95706 Tweets
National Day
• 57109 Tweets
Mets
• 53522 Tweets
Verizon
• 46852 Tweets
MertRamazanDemir AfraSaraçoğlu
• 44159 Tweets
Indigenous
• 42716 Tweets
HAPPY JIMTOBER
• 41996 Tweets
#ゆうぴー愛してるぞ
• 38346 Tweets
Braves
• 34650 Tweets
Andrés Manuel López Obrador
• 31051 Tweets
#النصر_الريان
• 30203 Tweets
RIP Legend
• 30070 Tweets
スレッタ
• 28402 Tweets
#الاهلي_الوصل
• 28393 Tweets
MANTRA IS COMING
• 23396 Tweets
Semih
• 15055 Tweets
#KYSvBJK
• 13077 Tweets
MANTRA BY JENNIE
• 12854 Tweets
Kademeli Emeklilik Mitingi
• 11013 Tweets
There's a big misunderstanding in
#eurobond
discussion. It isn't about immediate crisis management, national govs & ECB do that. It's about economic reconstruction after the recession & that implies designing and funding, together, a multi year, EU wide, public investment plan
12
97
289
Abenomics is working. Fiscal policy with smart incentives for labor supply leads, while monetary policy supports keeping r<g. We are seeing the future in Japan.
Japan is defying its demographic destiny. Since 2012, working age pop is down 4.7mn, but employment is up 4.4mn. How? by recruiting millions more elderly, female and foreign workers. Big & positive lessons for an aging world. My article:
26
519
921
10
97
259
The French opposition to the Single Market. Spain freely allows French high speed train operators, France barely allows Spanish operators in France. It was the same story with gas interconnections. Maybe more actions, instead of grand speeches, is what Europe needs.
La “falta de reciprocidad” de 🇫🇷 con 🇪🇸:
1️⃣ Renfe intenta desde 2022 llegar a París. Hoy sólo opera Marsella y Lyon [¿alta velocidad?]
2️⃣ Ouigo opera aquí sin restricciones y con precios muy bajos.
📌 Puede ser motivo, incluso, de conflicto diplomático.
7
113
305
4
85
262
The market reaction to Lagarde's unfortunate comment reveals an uncomfortable truth. The euroarea has wasted a decade debating risk reduction, debt restructuring, and sovereign exposures, while it should have worked on building a common budget and eurobonds.
13
101
253
This is a must watch, by
@AranchaGlezLaya
. Clear and to the point. In one sentence: trade deals are about managing interdependence, and thus they can't possibly be about asserting sovereignty. The rest is a waste of time.
This, by Spanish Foreign minister
@AranchaGlezLaya
, is absolutely superb. The clearest expression of the problem I've heard. The UK is trying to use a trade deal to do something it's not designed to do. This, fundamentally, is why negotiations have failed.
Well worth sharing.
738
9K
27K
2
66
239
This blog post by
@ecb
Philip Lane is, by far, the best analysis of eurozone inflation that has been done so far. Relative price shocks, uninformative core inflation, one-off nominal wage catch up, and much more.
7
79
235
This chart speaks for itself. The Netherlands receives large transfers every year from other countries, including from the rest of the EU.
The symbolism of the Netherlands leading a group of 'frugal' countries, as they seek to deny EU solidarity to those who have suffered most both from
#COVID19
*and* from Dutch tax havenry, is painful. And Ireland has leadership of the
#Eurogroup
.
Will this hypocrisy stand?
24
470
625
2
97
181
As Spain goes to the polls, compare and contrast. One has a concrete and detailed set of achievements and policies to be deployed. The other is cherry picked statistics and the standard litany of generic and empty “reforms” that could apply to any country in the world.
Both Pedro Sánchez and Alberto Núñez Feijóo, Spain's prime minister and its leader of the opposition, have written By Invitation pieces for
@theeconomist
, setting out their cases ahead of Sunday's election.
4
46
99
3
61
152
This can’t be said often and louder enough: without a Eurobond, the Eurozone will never be stable - and, as a result, the cost of capital will always be too high. Fully agree with
@EuroBriefing
2
64
134
Spain, “The world’s most liveable country”. We must be doing something right. Good piece
@KuperSimon
.
4
33
121
Bravo
@sanchezcastejon
- Now is the time to look at the post recession period to ensure the recovery is strongest possible and economic damage is transitory. We need a large, multiyear public investment plan in the Eurozone, financed with Eurobonds. If not Eurobonds now, when?
5
57
107
The fear of some that the US policy mix may lead, ex-ante, to inflation > 2% shows why the 2% target has been, de facto, a ceiling: caution led to targeting <2% inflation. A 2% symmetric target requires the risk to be accepted & managed. Which is what today's US policy mix does
6
18
105
What’s really remarkable of German bonds at zero yield is that this is due, mostly, to the German government’s refusal to invest in projects with positive rates of return, depriving German citizens of a higher potential growth rate and creating a pernicious race to the bottom
Remarkable and in many ways hard to fathom: German 30-year (!) government bonds now yield zero, nothing, nada.
#in
4
24
49
7
47
100
Enough said: "Other capitals might ask if their public finances would be in better shape if The Hague did not poach their tax revenues through a highly favourable corporate tax regime."
4
47
98
La UE tiene dos opciones: seguir siendo una union de campeones nacionales; o crear campeones europeos, y bienes publicos UE financiados con eurobonos, para poder tener la escala suficiente para aumentar la productividad y competir con EEUU y China
@el_pais
10
59
99
A perfect example of German reaction: avoid the hard questions in Draghi's report. The issue is the investment needs to meet the EU objectives, not the funding. All Draghi says is it's unlikely these investment needs will be met without new sources of funding. Prove him wrong.
Based on first reading of the Draghi report: Strong belief in the magic of financial engineering.
1/Some national governments in the EU have exhausted their own fiscal capacity.
2/So we need more common debt issuance to increase the EU's fiscal capacity, according to the
13
43
157
6
29
95
This by
@VMRConstancio
raises a key question for economic policy: how to stabilize inflation when it’s driven mostly by persistently higher markups? Should economic policy create the conditions for the labor share to recover some of the lost ground? How, and by how much?
The FAO Food price index dropped sharply in March (-20.5% yoy!), but that had no impact on the unit profit-driven increase in Food prices in the Euro Area. 1/
8
109
278
9
44
95
This is a no brainer - the EU should go big on fiscal. In fact, it should go bigger than the US, as the recession has been deeper and inflation is lower.
1
44
92
Italy has many problems, like every economy in the world. But the deep misinformation about the Italian economy is probably also one of those problems. This thread is a must read.
Politicians, economists and the media have been using distorted images of Italy and the Italian economy. How do we reduce these distortions? Niki Kowall and I make an attempt by writing about seven ("surprising") facts about Italy's economy. A thread: /1
51
981
2K
2
39
91
Otro ejemplo, junto con el superávit externo estructural, de la positiva transformación de la economía española y del éxito de las políticas económicas post Covid, que han evitado la histeresis y muy probablemente aumentado el crecimiento potencial.
España reduce a un mínimo histórico la proporción de jóvenes que ni estudian ni trabajan, por
@Emi_SanchezH
vía
@el_pais
5
184
314
2
48
89
Good decision: extend suspension of EU fiscal rules to 2021 (my rule: fiscal policy must remain expansionary at least until the 2019 GDP level is restored) & review EU fiscal rules to eliminate the damaging procyclical influence of output gap estimates
1
30
85
This is exactly what the euro area needs now. A German initiative in favor of Eurobonds to facilitate a strong recovery from the recession in ALL the euro area. Politics is the art of the possible. Let’s all work together to make it happen. Well done!
Europe needs to stay united in difficult times
Seven German economists (
@MSchularick
@GFelbermayr
@michael_huether
@PeterBofinger
@SDullien
#Trebesch
& myself) ask for 1trn€ common💶 bonds
Our piece will also appear in major 🇫🇷🇮🇹🇪🇸 outlets
#Covid_19
36
353
708
1
24
84
This is key. The reason it's confused is that some still see what's going on as a standard recession. It is not. It's an induced economic coma driven by health restrictions. All the fiscal support is doing is keeping the patient alive. There has been very little net stimulus yet
Important note: relief $ is not stimulus. You can’t compare to the size of the current output gap to know if it is “too big”.
Relief money prevents the output gap from getting bigger, can prevent permanent damage, and is important.
Stop judging it as stimulus.
15
219
869
1
24
81
20 years of zero interest rates in Japan! That's why we must stop calling QE, fwd guidance or negative rates "unconventional" policies. They are all monetary policy tools. Calling them "unconventional" creates stigma, a rush towards "normalization" & bias towards too tight policy
It's been 20 years since Japan radically adopted zero interest rates. Here's what the world learned since via
@economics
6
68
101
4
39
79
It's a great honor to serve in the new Spanish Advisory Council on Economic Affairs, chaired by VicePresident
@NadiaCalvino
Se constituye el Consejo Asesor de Asuntos Económicos, compuesto por expertos de reconocido prestigio en materia de política económica.
Presidido por la VP
@NadiaCalvino
y la SE de Economía y Apoyo a la Empresa
@AnadelaCuevaF
, como vicepresidenta.
📎
32
60
280
12
8
78
Spanish employment is up 9% since 2019Q4 - despite a pandemic, a brutal energy and food price shock, and the sharpest increase in interest rates in decades. Something is going well.
Estos dos gráficos del Ministerio son también impresionantes.
La evolución del empleo en este periodo es completamente insospechada. Mas si nos ponemos por ejemplo en mayo/2020.
1
18
40
4
31
76
An important chart, which may help explain why US longer term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2% despite the very large spike in prices.
0
16
76
An example of the EU's key weakness as a global power and indirectly, of the euro as a global currency: instead of solving the EU budget for the objectives & then decide on the cost, the "frugal four" want to keep the cost constant and cut the objectives
2
39
75
I’ve been arguing all year for clear, state-contingent forward guidance in fiscal policy, of the type “keep fiscal policy expansionary at least until the 2019 GDP level is regained”. Happy to see
@TheEconomist
joining the call.
3
17
75
Spain and Italy are doing something right. A fast and effective vaccination campaign is the economic policy with the highest possible multiplier. Let's not forget, economic policy goes well beyond "structural reforms" and "frugality".
1
34
75
We have a
#eurobond
, in whatever name you want. Finally.
🇩🇪🇫🇷 propose 500bn in EU budget spending, skewed towards the most affected, re-distributive (get according to need, pay according to GNI key), financed by what is effectively federal issuance integrated in MFF. That's bigger than Karlsruhe.
#HamiltonDream
2
68
146
2
27
75
Inequality due to corruption is bad for growth. Ending corruption is a key structural reform for any economy.
2
58
68
Bravissimo Mario Draghi! He leaves the perfect legacy for Christine Lagarde at
@ecb
: open ended QE explicitly contingent on realized inflation, and a public plea for a more expansionary fiscal policy and a fiscal union in the euro area.
3
22
73
Recordatorio de fin de año: los modelos de crecimiento que aumentan la desigualdad típicamente fracasan, fomentando el extremismo político. Y, por si quedan dudas: la desigualdad no se reduce bajando impuestos.
1
46
72
Así fue con Trump en 2016. Los Republicanos aceptaron todo el Trumpismo, incluyendo las mentiras y la erosión de las instituciones, para que ganara “uno de los suyos”. Fox lo alentó, el resto de la prensa fue equidistante. Y la historia la sabemos. Que luego nadie se sorprenda.
2
60
72
A country that won't be on EDP tomorrow: Spain. Strong activity, robust employment, improving public finances, very good energy mix. Despite internal and external criticisms, it seems that the post Covid polices are working. We may be doing something right. cc:
@robin_j_brooks
‼️Heads of Cabinet
@EU_Commission
have just agreed to start process tmrw to put France into EDP as Fr deficit > 3%GDP.
Fr will now need to deliver a fiscal consolidation next yr. No chance
@J_Bardella
, popular front or hung parliament can do that
A major fiscal fight is coming
12
124
318
4
16
65
It seems that, as some of us have suspected all along, there's huge demand, including from global reserve managers, for a european safe asset (aka eurobond). Maybe euroarea governments will finally understand the advantages of the exorbitant privilege?
3
33
64
As Draghi finally tells EU leaders, just a reminder of why a much more active fiscal policy is badly needed
@voxeu
2
38
63
Ahora consideremos que la población activa - el denominador de la tasa de paro - ha aumentado respecto a Sept 2008. Por tanto, la situación del mercado de trabajo es mejor que en Sept 2008 - pero sin burbuja, y con superávit por cuenta corriente. Avanzamos.
El paro registrado disminuyó en el mes de abril en 60.503 personas respecto al mes anterior (27.748 en términos desestacionalizados) y se situó en 2.666.500 personas, la cifra más baja desde septiembre de 2008.
3
13
20
1
46
64
I think this piece misses a critical point. The Fed needs some constrained discretion to be able to respond to an unexpected shock. Which is why it doesn't, and it shouldn't, define overshooting with more precision. Because the answer is, it depends.
3
13
62
I would recommend to stop talking about fiscal space. It is a concept as undefined as the concept of output gap. And it only leads to confusion and bad policies. We should talk about the quality of fiscal policies, and about the policy mix, not about fiscal space.
Ultimate test of fiscal space: foreigners want to buy your debt in a bad shock, i.e. just when you're about to issue more debt. That happened for Germany (blue) & Japan (black) in 2020, but not the US (red). Low yields don't signal this, but US fiscal space may be deteriorating.
5
20
73
5
13
61
The US trying to imitate the Eurozone
Cruz "Congress should not be bailing out fiscally irresponsible states on the backs of taxpayers in more fiscally prudent states, but instead should provide additional flexibility for states to use funds they’ve already received on law enforcement"
2
0
3
2
18
62
It should be clear by now that agreeing to have
#eurobonds
was a very good idea, not only it made the euro area much more stable, but there is also a very large demand for them. Time to move to the next step and make the RRF permanent.
It’s not just Biden in Brussels today - the Commission tapped markets with the inaugural sale of its Next Generation EU joint debt. It’s attracted 140 billion euros. I’m told *largest single tranche syndication ever *
It’s huge
1
34
102
2
23
59
Bravo Powell - more fiscal stimulus is needed to avoid hysteresis: "And the consequences of not borrowing enough, not spending enough in your view is what? POWELL: the risk is that there could be longer run damage to the productive capacity of the economy and to people's lives"
2
16
57
One has to wonder: why has adherence to an arbitrary 3% deficit rule been more important than ensuring a fair single market? "Article 116 of the EU treaty gives Brussels the powers to correct “distortions” in the single market, but has never been used."
2
20
57
Nostalgia de la antigua "normalidad" es mala consejera para la politica economica. EEUU lo ha entendido, la Fed ha revisado su estrategia & la politica fiscal no se obsesiona con niveles de deficit y deuda. Ahora toca el turno a la Union Europea
@el_pais
2
30
57
The EU has two options: remain a union of national champions; or create European champions, complemented by EU public goods partly financed with Eurobonds, so that firms have sufficient scale to increase productivity and can compete with the US and China
4
22
56
Nostalgia of the old "normal" is a bad guide for economic policy. The US gets it, the Fed has reviewed its framework towards max employment & fiscal policy looks beyond debt & deficit levels to focus on improving its quality. It's now the turn of the EU
4
23
56
My new piece: "Fiscal Policy at the ZLB". 4 principles: bygones are bygones for d/y; Golden Rule; PAYGO for non-investment budget; spending reviews. Focus on quality, not quantity of deficit & debt. If r=0 & inf<inf*, fiscal policy must be expansionary
1
27
55
Panetta's speech
@ecb
must be read in full - beyond the Daft Punk lines. It has 2 statistics that must be the anchor of ECB's policy for years to come: the level of inflation is <10pp below the 2% trend line; and the level of GDP is 14% < 2008 level
1
18
54
A truly bad idea, a lower inflation target
@ECB
. It will increase future expected output gaps. In plain English, it will reduce future expected growth by reducing the ability of the ECB to cut real rates.
3
23
55
More evidence that fiscal policy is very effective at the ZLB: government spending multiplier of 1.5 in Japan at the ZLB, also increasing expected inflation.
2
23
54
Closing the gap vs the level of pre-pandemic GDP trend is a fiscal policy choice. The US has chosen to do it, the EU is choosing not to. Another example of why "sound fiscal policy" is not always the same as containing debt and deficits.
0
17
54
This is a great note by
@AntonioFatas
- because unexpected shocks happen, policy makers must let the high pressure economy last longer.
4
14
51
La recuperacion de esta recesion puede ser diferente y evitar una perdida permanente de PIB. Para ello la politica economica debe ser ambiciosa, evitar el fatalismo, manteniendo el estimulo hasta el final. EEUU lo ha entendido. Hara lo mismo la eurozona?
4
23
52
I very highly recommend this interview
@SPIEGEL_English
with
@VMRConstancio
. A very important message for the German audience: very low or negative rates are not the fault of the ECB, but of the excess savings of some euro area governments.
0
27
52
Como muestra la inflación ya por debajo del 2%, España ha conseguido controlar el impacto inflacionista de la crisis energética mejor que la media europea - y ademas, como muestra el IMF, con un coste fiscal mucho más bajo de la media europea.
A thread:
[1/6] Many euro area countries implemented 'unconventional fiscal policies' in 2022. Designed to offset the energy crisis, but also to reduce inflation.
3
57
179
2
37
51
As
#eurobonds
(finally) move to center stage, I re-up my
@piie
"stability bonds" proposal: transfer 5% gdp of VAT receipts to back 25% GDP of eurobonds, senior to national bonds. Simple, based on political commitment, no financial engineering.Details here
2
22
50
Another reminder, specially for eurosceptic Italians, that having your own currency doesn’t help - and can make it way worse - if you don’t adopt good economic policies.
5
30
48
Another reminder that reforms without demand policies that create a hot economy will likely fail to boost productivity growth. Both, supply and demand, are needed.
The Secret of Productivity Growth Is Not Technology via
@darioperkins
Technology is the fuel, but tight labor markets are the spark of productivity growth
5
71
128
1
15
49
Why do countries borrow? Why do they overborrow? Does debt matter for economic growth? A great paper by
@upanizza
@a_presbitero
@AntonioFatas
& Atish Ghosh
2
17
47
As Morningstar lifts Spain from stable to positive, S&P downgrades France while Germany is stuck in a structural economic & political funk. The balance of EU economic forces is changing fast, a healthy reminder that EU solidarity is always cyclical & that more EU is the way ahead
🔴 ALERTE INFO
Finances publiques: l'agence S&P dégrade la note de la France de "AA" à "AA-"
173
263
565
3
16
49
The
@IMFNews
is right: "Advanced economies should worry less about their public debt, but instead take advantage of historically low borrowing costs to increase spending on infrastructure maintenance immediately"
2
21
43
The most important sentence of today's
@ECB
press conference: "So now it is high time for fiscal policy to take charge". In a year's time let's assess governments' performance in delivering a well designed expansionary fiscal policy that lifts growth and inflation prospects.
Watch again: Draghi on the importance of fiscal policy
17
127
239
2
16
47
#Eurobonds
were never about mutualizing existing debt, but about creating a forward looking common fiscal policy that improves the euroarea policy mix. This isn't Hamilton, but it's still a very important step in the right direction.
@Sam1Fleming
3
14
48
Bravo
@ecb
, short, sweet and to the point, QE as it should be. The end of the "program mentality". Finally.
Press release: ECB announces €750 billion Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP)
289
2K
3K
3
17
48
Macron is right Europe must be strategically independent. The question is how to achieve it. Surely not by returning to a “debt reduction first”policy, as Germany proposes. Strategic independence requires investment, not savings. Fiscal policy is now part of national security.
Macron: “Is it in our interest to accelerate [a crisis] on Taiwan? No. The worse thing would be to think that we Europeans must become followers on this topic and take our cue from the U.S. agenda and a Chinese overreaction”
32
50
234
5
13
47
La notable diferencia en la evolución del PIB entre Espana y Alemania post COVID, a pesar de la ventaja alemana en el diferencial de tipos de interés: ventaja española en estructura económica, políticas económicas y, si, también reformas.
7
24
48
2 yrs ago I wrote
@voxeu
in favor of more active fiscal policy, including multi-year public investment plans, to boost potential growth, support monetary policy, & reduce income inequality. With the
#GreenNewDeal
this may become reality, I hope EU follows
2
30
45
Mi tribuna de hoy
@el_pais
. La eurozona debe cambiar de mentalidad para afrontar el futuro con exito: abandonar la obsesion con el ahorro y la restructuracion de la deuda; y enfocarse en la inversion y la solidaridad.
1
24
45
Leaked Eurogroup statement shows Euro exit has officially become a negotiating tool. Big mistake. They'll regret it.
http://t.co/RkiPpsYAvo
2
59
45
This is a very good economic program, for France and for Europe.
@EmmanuelMacron
@pisaniferry
2
34
43
The Fed is about to embark in a strategy of "opportunistic reflation", in order to re-anchor inflation expectations at 2 percent. Long overdue.
3
14
45
Recordemos que durante 2021-23 la economía sufrió un doble shock negativo de precios y tipos de interés. Es normal, por tanto, y deseable, que el consumo público cumpla su papel estabilizador en esas circunstancias. Es lo que una política económica eficaz debe hacer.
España | Con la revisión al alza del crecimiento de 1T2024 del 0,7% al 0,8%, el PIB se sitúa un 3,8% por encima de su nivel prepandemia, gracias al consumo público y exportaciones, pese al lastre del consumo privado y, sobre todo, la inversión
6
26
61
1
19
43
Do you want to read about the increase in economic inequality, why it happened, and how to fix it? Here the ultimate source
@piie
4
14
43
A reminder that “fiscal space” is, most of the time, not about levels of debt and deficits, but about the quality of fiscal policies and the policy mix. Debt & deficits should be policy instruments, not policy targets, especially at the ELB.
@bhgreeley
1
12
44
Ideas para reforma de la eurozona: un BCE simetrico y sin restricciones arbitrarias, un marco de politica fiscal riguroso pero flexible y adaptado a la situacion ciclica de la economia, y un fondo europeo de recuperacion y resiliencia permanente
@el_pais
1
17
44
Spain leads the way with the
#nextgenerationeu
, the first EU country to complete the arduous process of defining projects and meeting initial targets and reform objectives. A successful deployment of
#nextgenerationeu
is key to its sustainability. A very good first step.
🇪🇸 The first payment under
#NextGenerationEU
, €10 billion for Spain, is now on its way!
Felicitaciones a España.
I hope to have more good news for other EU countries very soon.
918
2K
6K
4
15
42
Japan, once again, leading with the right policy response - a fiscal policy insurance for the real economy, supported by monetary policy. Next step must be a multi year fiscal boost to push up inflation. Not just in Japan, everywhere.
Japan’s government says it will offer interest-free loans to small businesses affected by the coronavirus outbreak, part of a second round of stimulus measures
6
162
237
2
13
42
Estaba claro desde el principio que la recuperación española era tan solo cuestión de tiempo, y el tiempo lo esta confirmando. España tiene problemas estructurales, como todos, pero lidera en Europa el crecimiento y la creación de empleo
España adelanta finalmente a la eurozona en la recuperación del PIB tras la pandemia.
El PIB de España acumula un crecimiento del 3,6% desde los máximos prepandemia. En el último año España ha crecido seis veces más que Europa
79
265
606
5
20
43
The regular reminder that competitiveness isn't about exchange rates & countries can thrive inside the euro if they adopt the right policies. Still work to do, of course, but here Spain today, the economy that, may said, couldn't survive inside the euro
Spain’s economy is changing
High-tech companies with global ambitions are emerging
www.economist.com
2
27
42
An intriguing economic policy experiment. The US chose unemployment (which breaks the employment relationship) + income support. The EU chose furlough (which doesn't break the employment relationship). The US suffers now the friction of job matching. Will the EU recover better?
The slow pace of the US labor market recovery might be the right thing in the long run. More productive workers mean a more productive economy, but getting workers into the jobs in which they can be most productive will take time,
@betseystevenson
writes.
1
27
84
1
10
41
Well done Australia, adopting a smart fiscal policy rule. With rates at zero, & thus fiscal policy the main demand policy, it commits not to start focusing on deficit reduction until U rate down to at least 6%. My rule is not to do it until gdp is at least back to 2019 levels.
2
19
42
If you are interested in economic policy, this is the book you have to read, by
@pisaniferry
, Benoir Coeure,
@agnesbq1
and Pierre Jacquet. Economic rigor, policy experience, and an understanding of both global and European idiosyncrasies.
After you’ve worked on a book for years the moment it lands on your desk is inevitably emotional. On the rational side, this second edition is largely a new book cos so much has changed since the previous one. We cover what has transformed the economic policy landscape.
5
49
218
1
15
42
This is an important result on the macro impact of carbon taxes: "zero to modest positive impact on GDP and total employment growth rates. More importantly, we find no robust evidence of a negative effect of the tax on employment or GDP growth"
0
21
42
Bravo
@ECB
! Open ended QE to create fiscal space and support growth. As good as it gets. Now governments have to deliver on fiscal policy.
0
14
41
Great piece by
@greg_ip
. It can't be more clear, a key source of lower income inequality is hysteresis that keeps low skilled workers outside the labor force for too long. Therefore, it is critical to reduce as much as possible the length of recessions, whatever it takes.
Most of the rise in bottom-half inequality has occurred around recessions. If the pandemic hadn't happened, a lot of this inequality may have reversed. This underscores the urgency of returning to full employment as quickly as possible. My latest column.
14
51
126
2
18
41
If eurozone is serious about strengthening the international role of the euro, it must start with two actions: reform the SGP, removing the 60% debt/gdp target; and making the EU Recovery Fund permanent, as the seed for
#eurobonds
. Marginal actions won't do anything.
More than 20 years since its creation, the euro has struggled to establish itself as a true reserve currency that can overshadow the dollar. Strengthening the international role of the euro must be a priority, writes
@AngelUbide
for
@elpais_opinion
1
1
7
3
21
41
The virus resurgence shows why "state-contingent fiscal forward guidance" is needed, of the type:"keep income & liquidity support for as long as Covid-related restrictions are in place". More effective than fiscal policy with calendar end-dates. Same as monetary policy, after all
2
12
41
La economia española sigue, y seguira, sorprendiendo al alza - porque esto no es un ciclo economico al uso, como explique aqui. Las politicas adoptadas post Covid han aumentado el tipo de interes de equilibrio y la resiliencia de la economia.
2
22
41
Fiscal policy in many countries is making the same mistake that monetary policy made back in 2010 - worry about level/size of instrument and talk about exit well before the work was done, thus denting its effectiveness. Fiscal policy must be state contingent, whatever it takes.
0
15
41
A good thread. At the core, the issue is this: in a world of zero interest rates, the
@ecb
must act along the yield curve to fulfill its mandate. The Court wants to limit that, even if that implies not fulfilling its mandate. Instrument over mandate. It isn't sustainable.
The German Constitutional Court ruling (
#BVerfG
). Summary thread.
1) The main implication is not at the surface. ECB can continue quantitative easing and Bundesbank will in all likelihood continue to participate. What has changed today is the independence of the ECB.
1/8
32
879
1K
2
22
41
Con tipos cero, la politica fiscal va a ser determinante. Los paquetes fiscales son complejos, con multiples efectos. Hay que valorarlos en su conjunto, no se fien de analisis parciales o titulares impactantes. Y los gobiernos deben explicarlos bien.
1
10
37
Important paper. New r* estimates using forward looking inflation expectations measures (instead of backward looking as in Laubach-Williams) show r*<0 over last decade in the US, as low as -1%. This would explain why inflation has been persistently <2%
1
16
39
Fully agree with
@VMRConstancio
. We have to stop thinking that monetary policy is the only cyclical stabilization policy. At the ZLB, fiscal policy must lead, and monetary policy must accommodate.
The ideas of Kimball, Rogoff and Goodfriend to embark into ever more negative interest rates ( in order to avoid fiscal policy..) should be resisted and debunked. In the present situation,if the downturn becomes serious, a more active fiscal policy will be indispensable 8/8
9
48
140
1
9
40