Alex Kolicich
@AlexKolicich
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Founding GP @8VC Former @PalantirTech , @Google , Clarium, @UWaterloo Interested in IT, BioIT, Macro, Public Equities
San Francisco, CA
Joined February 2014
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Gemini is wild. These are real people who actually existed.
I guess they fine-tuned the wokeness in at the end and so it forgot elements of reality
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Reality: the Traitorous 8 who founded Fairchild Semiconductor
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SFO is the GOAT of airport food
The best:
Bun Mee - Pho or Vietnamese Sandwiches
Dogpatch Bakehouse and Caffè - Healthy salads
Klein’s Deli - Sandwich
The Plant - bowls
Starbird Chicken
Napa Farms Market or Ritual Coffee - Coffee
Sidewalk Juice - Juice
Miss anything?
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This SF political ad has to be satire.
A 'Pissed Off Voter Guide' backing the same supervisors who drove the city to rock bottom—with no self-reflection that those supes may be to blame?
And Lady Liberty still masked, a strange tribute to the 'golden age' of lockdowns?
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Just walked into the 8VC office! E/acc accelerate or die
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SF events are different
No alcohol at the
@ollama
meetup. Just La Croix, Water, Celsius and Red Bull
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Carta launches a startup shutdown service
Damn that's cold-blooded
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Imagine living so good you can get paid 2 & 20 on this portfolio
Better hope LPs don't find out about $QQQ
Coatue Management files its Q2 13F:
Top 5 Positions:
1. $META, 8.21%
2. $AMZN, 8.10%
3. $TSM, 7.71%
4. $NVDA, 6.61%
5. $MSFT, 6.44%
-Top Buys: $CEG $GEV $DELL $APH $QCOM
-Top Sales: $AVGO $CRM $CART $GOOGL $NFLX
-New Positions: $GEV $APH $UNH
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Happy Fourth to all my fellow Americans!
Thank you for adopting me!
First in my family to go to college, my parents grew up having everything stolen from them by the Nazis/Ustase/Communists.
Only in America (and Canada!) can you rise from nothing in a single generation.
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Southern Ontario (Toronto/Ottawa/Waterloo) is the biggest sleeper corridor in the History of Computation.
Pioneered: first internet search engine (OpenText), compilers (Watcom), Elliptic Curve Cryptography (Certicom), GPUs (ATI), smart phones (RIM/Blackberry), Optical Networking
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Sushi is not a particularly difficult culinary craft, nor does it lend itself well to fine dining. It's raw fish on rice.
That's why it tastes the same at every sushi restaurant you go to
Unpopular opinion but I have the courage to say it
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Data from Carta suggests seed valuations are very near all-time highs
We see this ourselves, despite the Seed-> Series A conversion being at all-time lows
Wacky market
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You can send Term Sheets from anywhere
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OpenAI's unique structure could drive this strange decision-making
The for-profit is an LLC, LLCs are not governed by Delaware C-Corp law
The for-profit is governed by the non-profit board, which is bound by the charter. One of the charter principles is long-term safety.
It
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One of the more surprising things I've learned in venture is that "reputation" often doesn't catch up to you
I know many VCs who act unethically, lie, or abandon companies that I see with a good brand and winning competitive deals
Few people do real reference checks
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Excited to be investing again in
@ScottWu46
and the
@cognition_labs
team after knowing Scott for nearly a decade
Have been blown away by the product. The capability slope is incredible, and believe the UI will inform how future AI-native apps are built
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My advice to new investors: Prioritize opportunism to secure investments in top-tier companies by any means necessary
I see too much focus on valuation caps or ownership targets. If you find a generational company; just get in. Be flexible with ownership stakes, consider
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Our goal at 8VC is to "increase the total factor productivity of the economy" with our investing
Of particular concern is that real wages have been stagnant since early 2021
We need to accelerate onshore investment in tech to increase productivity/real wages
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@secretsqrl123
Did their part to fight the Nazis with the Allie’s in WW2 (most Neighbours did not, before Russia did)
Did well fighting with the entente in WW1
Nikola Tesla invented AC electricity
Kept a cohesive Christian culture over 500 years of Islamic conquests in the region
You just
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Greg is one of the greatest technologists of our time. This is a monumental loss to the company, which was perfectly positioned to capitalize on the defining tech of our generation
It suggests there probably isn't a huge *for cause* scandal
Greatest own-goal in startup history?
After learning today’s news, this is the message I sent to the OpenAI team:
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@McFaul
Michael, this is a silly argument and you know it. US Citizens should have an interest in what their government does more than what another does.
You know “whataboutism” is a poor argument. Do you think the use is a war crime? As someone who has family in a prior war zone, I do!
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We’re in the “grind it out” phase of the venture market.
Let’s see who on both sides of the table has the stamina and expertise to really build for the long-term.
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Moves like this cement the fact that
@anduriltech
is a generational company.
Defense is complex. You should be a multi-product company to recognize maximum value.
This is a super strategic and smart acquisition that will enable many more products.
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@aish_caliperce
I think this very well could be the case. We will demand ever more powerful and vertical software
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Startups who were able to maintain a war chest have had their runways extended meaningfully by high interest income
Really incredible how material it is to many companies
You can run a medium-sized team on the interest from a Tiger round
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Happy July 4th to everyone! Incredibly proud to be an American this 4th. Still love Canada too :). Both countries have been foundational to me.
But American has given me opportunities I could have never dreamed of and today is it's day. Unapologetically proud. 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
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Doesn’t matter if you’re in SF, NYC, LA, or whatever.
Just get back to work
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Oat milk is gross and tastes like chemicals
The fact that Blue Bottle defaults to using oat milk and accidentally prepares my latte with it, despite my requests otherwise, makes me not want to go there
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The nativist reporters at
@Forbes
think American immigrants should be evaluated based on where they come from rather than their ability. Shame on them
We don't do that at
@8vc
America is a place we all come together. E pluribus unum
We are lucky to have Jack and Denis
After it came out that I’m supporting Trump this election, it was no surprise to be attacked by lefty journalists on multiple topics. The far-left Rolling Stone’s hit piece on me a few days ago based on our policy org Cicero’s success - we’re helping several states reduce
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Last week the head of Gradient Ventures announced she will be leaving
There is a ton of hidden VC turnover that is not yet announced
Firms are bloated with the new normal in dealflow. Some GPs don't want it grind it out in a new cycle
Big changes ahead
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Every quarter I’ll be publishing my thoughts on the venture funding markets + macro + startup musings. For Q3, I outline how I think our new normal is just the old normal of 2018 — we are unlikely to see any improvement in funding markets for some time.
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@DavidSacks
Find it quite distasteful to see foreign dignitaries criticizing American citizens for sharing what they see is the American interest. Americans are the right to debate the predominant American interest in this situation, whatever it may be, without foreign influence
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There's wild 2021-level stuff going on in the growth markets
Huge amounts of dry powder are meeting a (lower) supply of great companies, and it's 2021 multiples all over again
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Seeing more multistage VC funds invest in direct competitors to other portfolio companies
This behaviour used to unheard of but is now becoming common in AI
Multistage funds in a seed round was never really bad signaling, let me assure you this is
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@SCOTUSblog
Seems like a poor decision, I only consume your content via Twitter. I hope you reconsider or offer a subscription offering to offset the $8/month.
Or you can use the platform without the blue check!
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Excited to present my latest Q4 2023 - State of Venture Update & 2024 Outlook: "80% Growth is the New 200%".
In this update, I explore the dynamic shifts in AI, inflation outlook, changes in the Venture Capital market, and BioTech as we enter 2024.
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Have to say my favorite thing about NewSF is that it’s highly technical engineers/founders on the grind again
Get excited on a weekly basis with people just hacking cool shit
Not as many tourists as we had peak bubble
Back to like when I moved here 15 years ago
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We need to fix this.
The deindustrialization of Europe is coming about due to the Ukraine war. It's external.
Canada by nature should be a rich country. Natural resources, stable institutions, education, free access to the largest economy
Canada should be as rich as the US
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Peter Thiel interview just dropped on Joe Rogan
Half-way through and it’s amazing
“The rough model I have for California is that it’s *kind* of like Saudia Arabia”
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Protectionism/cronyism in Canada is something I've fought for many years. Canada is a great but has policies which protect the establishment over average Canadians and immigrants.
The dairy quota is one of the most egregious. They'd rather dump milk than feed hungry families.
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Sometimes it's so hard to find a Diet Coke in SF/Marin because everything is so yuppy.
Very frustrating.
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This is a pretty pivotal and important moment. Contracts like this don't often go outside of the major primes.
Anduril is a category leader, and doing it in style!
The
@usairforce
has selected Anduril to design, manufacture, and test production-representative Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA).
In this era of great power competition, there is no time to waste on business as usual. We look forward to delivering CCAs on schedule, within
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Best clip from Peter’s Rogan interview
The best way to think about California is like Saudi Arabia
Wokism vs Wahhabism
Big Tech vs Big Oil pays for everything
Bloated government
Heated real-estate market redistributes wealth
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If you have this in your office I’m bullish on your company
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@jeremys
I live in this part of the city and it's a vital roadway during rush hour.
Like most SF road closures it will lead to a decreased quality of life due to increased congestion for people who live here!
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Posted my Q1 2024 State of Venture Update - From Devin to Robotic Foundation Models: AI's Transformative Potential
I give updates on the venture market, what Devin teaches about AI-first application software, Robotics, LLM model convergence, and more...
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Difficulty hiring engineers in the SF Bay Area has continued to increase exponentially. I’ve never seen it this bad, almost every company I know has opened a second engineering office which grows significantly faster than SF. It’s becoming table stakes.
@JoinTerminal
@jackabraham
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@emcotjoka
@secretsqrl123
You've truly got a twisted revisionist view of history.
It took courage to stand up to the Nazis and the country paid dearly for it. Other than the Greeks, none of our neighbours had the courage to do it.
If the country collaborated with Axis powers it wouldn't have been
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Very excited for the
@blendlabsinc
team on their IPO. Fun to have been involved in here since day 1! 🚀🚀🚀
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Truly perplexed at the lack of direction from the Fed/FDIC about SVB and their deposits.
Speed matters here
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Just left my car door slightly open for an hour on the street in SF and nobody stole anything.
SF is so back
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Late in my career, I learned the power of a good board: it can be a competitive advantage
Focus adding independent members that value, and you'll gather a team that boosts your company in ways you couldn't by hiring alone—offering guidance, connections, and credibility
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@ylecun
@altcap
@boztank
@PalmerLuckey
I am an extreme admirer of your work in AI and views on risks/balancing concerns. I read and listen to most of your work here and think it’s brilliant.
Your Elon vendetta reallly cheapens your stellar reputation. Political fueds like this often lead us to lower our bar for
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New post: Q2 2024 Venture State - Unpacking AI's uncertain value capture and the defense tech boom.
Thoughts on AI capabilities vs. expectations, SaaS valuations, and how policy shifts are fueling a renaissance in defense startups
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With these new model releases, we're seeing some serious convergence in LLMs across providers. That's making switching costs near 0.
Let's say this continues (it may not with GPT-5 or more infra built by providers), what's the right analog for the business?
I always thought
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Market has been down for two days straight. We should see the Fed intervene soon.
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@BillAckman
@MIT
Could probably do this pretty easily with a good developer, some AWS credits, and access to OpenAI API
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Seeing “building in-person in SF” in pitch decks now
Nature is healing
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Alloy is building the platform layer to democratize drug discovery (antibodies today). It has a broad and positive-sum mission to make development partnerships high-impact and low-friction. So happy to be involved, may the best drug win!
@errikanderson
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Thought I'd try this myself and it's pretty funny.
As a student of Serbian history I can tell you there are some errors here, haha.
I'm 100% bought into the intent, but something went wrong in the training steps.
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Uber needs a “fastest to arrive vehicle of any type” option. How did this get overlooked for so long?
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Big if true
i am hearing reports that the personnel issues that led to the board's actions involved discovery of a group of researchers secretly training the new GPDeez model without the board's knowledge. the board reportedly went nuts after finding out about this
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Contrary to popular belief, AI is likely to boost all wages, not decrease
In AI-enhanced sectors wages will rise as wages follow the marginal productivity of labor
In non-productive sectors, Baumol’s Cost-Disease means those wages will also rise
AI will be wage-enhancing
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"If you’re going to lose a deal, lose efficiently"
- Recent board meeting wisdom
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The "let it fail" crowd neglects to understand that we all know there are a few banks "too big to fail"
Inaction leads to concentration in big banks at the expense of regional banks
Actions can be taken that will cost taxpayers nothing but save the system, but window is closing
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So generative AI just saved SF right?
Befitting a gold rush town.
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SF Is back and seems like it got an upgrade. Everybody is here or always coming through town, yet there's very little traffic and you can always find parking.
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Our co Dren Bio announces a $150m upfront/$2.85b total partnership with Novartis
Dren's Targeted Myeloid Engager Platform uses bispecific antibodies to engage the patients immune system to deplete pathogenic cells
This novel platform has broad potential to improve human health!
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I'm going to be disrupted!
Today is my birthday, so I decided to birth something fun and useful we’ve been working on.
Introducing
@MeetBoardy
, the AI board member you deserve.
Over the years, I’ve had great board members and not so great board members, but one thing was always true: every single one was
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Wow Tiger raised a new fund! Have to respect the hustle and ability to stay in the game.
Venture fund brands may have a longer tail of life than mainframes or legacy dbs. There truly is no such thing as bad publicity.
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This is a sick ad, we need these for Polymarket in SF
On every street corner about even the more esoteric markets
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First time voting today as a US citizen. Thanks to everyone for all the reminders!
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Wow, Devin from
@cognition_labs
is impressively good/capable
The knowledge-work that will be addressed by AI-enabled control panels in the next decade are going to be incredible
Like looking into the future
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Building product is one of the more sustainable and least-recognized moats in software. Above switching costs & other types of vendor lock-in. Launch good product at a fast pace over time and your competitors can never catch up without a major platform transition.
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Immigrants are the most dynamic part of our economy and the current administration seems to prefer hollow rhetoric over action.
Almost every single aspect of the system has unreasonable delays (Visas, Naturalization, Residency) and quotas are unchanged.
We can do better!
Thread: for 2+ years the State Dept. has been bungling the US visa system. The wait time in New Delhi for a tourist visa is >800 days!
Are we supposed to just accept gross government incompetence nowadays?
In tomorrow’s
@WSJ
I argue that we shouldn’t...
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