AGTRADER
@Ag_trader89
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Yes its me. “Impatience is an argument with reality.”
Joined April 2023
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@DonMiami3
@MacroEdgeRes
And they wonder why people are upset...their two biggest expenditures have done nothing but go up.
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Senator Kennedy just hit it on the head... if we dont have a recession, and a bad one, prices will never come down.
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Did Powell just say... the effects on housing will be quite significant???
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Has oil ever made a 52 week high the same day $VIX made a 52 week low?
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If we ever start to really melt.. u now see the playbook,.. theyll close the option mkt to stop the waterfall of hedging?
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If the price of oranges go from $3 to $8... then stay at $8 for a year, theres 0% inflation. Nobody should be confused about why people are angry.
Inflation might be rolling over but consumers say it doesn't matter … per
@UMich
consumer sentiment survey, high % of individuals still saying financial situation is worse due to higher prices, despite headline CPI (orange) having eased considerably in year/year terms
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@disclosetv
So Israel knows for sure it was Hamas, yet didnt see the entire Hamas invasion coming? Can you have the IDF investigate the Nordstream pipeline next pls?
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Bullish....can only get less dangerous
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warns this is ‘the most dangerous time’ for the world in decades.
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the individual company "fundamentals" all kicked in at the same time.
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ugh i cant stand seeing these " If you bought the dip and held" posts.
here i have one too....
fun fact: since 2021, if you shorted each time NQ hit 16200 and held for at least 2000 points of profit, youre up $80,000 per contract on 2 trades and just started your third short
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I've spent 8 straight hours dissecting todays index move after the noon bond auction....and i've come to the same conclusion as always:
bonds matter
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Jesus... just looked at the dow... what is that...4000 points in a month? who's opening a long position here?
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I dont care if its a week from now.. a month from now.. or after the new year... this gap on bad data will fill imo.
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Its one thing to manipulate the CPI inputs... its another to get people to line up for those 30yr auctions.
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So the mkt has fully priced in all of the 2024 cuts... just like they priced in all of the 2023 cuts. remember those?
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Why the NQ isnt testing last years low is beyond me. everything is worse.
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After trillions of dollars pumped into the economy... Rusty is testing pre-covid highs.
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The memory of free money has been burnt into their heads. They cannot shake it... even after its gone.
Much like your grandparents couldnt shake their memories of the great depression... long after it ended.
#doomer
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They used duct tape and matchsticks to hold the mkt together until Vixpiration yesterday. Market internals were getting progressively weaker for days.
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burn. it. all. the entire crypto space.
Caroline Ellison testified that FTX paid a $150 MILLION bribe to the Chinese government to try and unlock some frozen accounts.
But SBF didn’t want her to put things like that in writing.
So they just called it “The Thing.”
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Yen cant take much more of this steepening. cracks forming everywhere
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I tried watching CNN for the first time in about a year. Two minutes in, felt like I was 100% being lied to. Had to turn it off.
They really messed up with Covid.
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As long as CSCO stays above $50 the economy is fine- 2001
2023 $47
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One more day like today.. and theyll be selling all of the FANGs and locking in that sweet risk free 2yr.
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I've never felt the mkts more disconnected from oil / rates / low vol than now.
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since when is Ukraine our homefront??!
NEW - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen: "We can’t allow Ukraine to lose a battle on the homefront."
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Doesnt Israel have the most sophisticated spying apparatus on the planet? Watching every inch of Gaza at all times? Yet no idea?
Pearl harbor vibes. Somebody wants war.
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Ive never ever seen anything like these Nikkei moves. You couldnt give that pos away 2 weeks ago! Now its just rallied 2000 points in few days
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If the treasury mkt "collapses" , I will be on the next day, locking in sweet sweet 10% interest rate payments for the next 30 years.
hint: it won't
We are going to see the treasury market collapse.
Then the stock market..
I don't believe anything Powell or the Government says.
Protect your assets now!
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I wish the Fed would just target stocks... then the prices on everything else could come down.
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Wellness check on the "I'm bullish, because everyone is bearish" crowd
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The Fed should just come out and say, "Listen..until the post pandemic wealth effect is gone..we can't stop. We need to force prices down. We're using the Nasdaq as a proxy"
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cant even imagine what happens on a jobs number blowout to the upside.
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Can we get Trump back in there to negotiate before WW3? (cant believe im saying this)
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see.. .dont worry about filling the SPR.... a recession will let us top it off really cheap.
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the Nikkei 🤡 market was up 570+ from the open... now +70
doesnt bode well.
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Bulletproof Texas brisket
1. Trim, salt and HEAVILY pepper
2. In smoker until 190 degrees internal.
3. Wrap in tallowed butcher paper and place in covered foil pan with one cup of water. Set your oven at 150 degrees for 10 hours.
Omfg.
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Friday was the worst divergence Ive seen yet between NQ/RTY and 2yr rates.
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Every time i look at this..... i just cant.
People buried in TLT calls(eventually this works after many expire worthless?) but buying FANG stocks for safety because they have cash?
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Everyone long bonds:
*BIDEN WILL MAKE COMMENTS ON JOB DATA FOLLOWING REPORT RELEASE...
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@RobertKennedyJr
yes! lets throw more cheap money at the current cheap money problem!! 🤦🤦🤦🤦🤦🤦
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What's the endgame with this migrant thing?
Chicago building a 29 million dollar tent city. Its going to be freezing here soon??
How did this all of a sudden explode?
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After a day like today, I always think bulls will finally wake up and say, "Maybe I shouldnt buy stocks at these levels. Lets wait for a 10% correction first."
it never works.
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he is 10000% selling into this
Bill Ackman says Treasury yields are going higher in a hurry, and that investors should shun US govt debt. His short bet on 30y Treasury bonds paying off in dramatic fashion over the past few weeks.
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If we do the whole xmas rally later this year, remember what you felt today... because everything that caused it, will still be there.
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Keep thinking...bulls better make as much as they possibly can before election season. Theyre probably cooking up something worse than a virus for Trump's 2nd term.
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"Everyone's bearish, so I must be bullish!"
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Remember when we were running out of Oil and Cattle last week? good times.
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This is easily going to be the most fucked up presidential election of all time.
Still bullish though?
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How is Japan going to pay for their oil with toilet paper for a currency?
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if the bulls were smart.. they would let this selloff all night, and let the gamblers load up on 0DTE calls at the open
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The same mechanism happens almost daily now in $SPX/SPY. Most people are oblivious.
Where else can u turn 4 into 40 in a few hours? The MMs that sold these calls have no choice but to keep buying the futures throughout the day.
#JustDarioDaily
⭐️PUT OPTIONS ARE SOOOOO
#BULLISH
! 🥳 ⭐️
What would be your reaction if I told you that, according to $SPY put options brokers pricing, there is a 20% probability that $SPY will trade above $480 by the end of the year? And what about $QQQ? It's slightly less
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Ahhh... I wish we could go back to that Covid overnight.
Skipping 2-3 handles between bid and offer. 0% rates forever.
Now look where we are.... and you still think stocks stand a chance at making new highs by year end due to seasonality?
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Jay could end inflation expectations tomorrow with one little .50 and a quick mic drop.
Prices would drop everywhere on everything.
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If you dont think 0DTE is running this mkt right now.. youre wrong
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My guy needs to be in a rubber room.
I can't think of ANY scenario where the spx gets to 6000 with the 10yr at 2.5% by eoy. I'm really trying.
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