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January ⁦@NewYorkFed⁩ 1y inflation expectations at 3% for second consecutive month

This week’s data dump

Joining @bsurveillance very shortly on @BloombergTV

Performance: index tables and Mag7 chart/table updated thru Friday’s close

MA breadth charts updated thru Friday’s close

As of 3Q24, 83.8% of Americans had a mortgage rate <3% ... but "lock-in effect" is starting to ease, given that percentage was 92.7% in mid-2022 ⁦@DataArbor⁩

Consumers’ buying conditions for vehicles, large household durable goods, and houses deteriorated in February per UMich sentiment data

Going back to spring 2022, there is only one month in which temporary help services employment has grown

Slight tick down in % of consumers expecting to see higher unemployment rate in next year as of February UMich update

Using pandemic as a starting point, gap between establishment (blue) and household (orange) employment surveys has started to close—thanks to upward revision for latter

Trends in permanent (blue) and temporary (orange) layoffs have stabilized lately … both have avoided kind of spike typically seen in a recession

Prime-age labor force participation rate rose to 83.5% in January … stabilizing over past year

Per Clever Real Estate, American homeowners spend nearly $25k on home expenses in addition to mortgage payment ... maintenance and utilities expected to make up >50% of expenses in 2025 ⁦@DataArbor⁩

Full-time employment rose in January to a new all-time high

December’s upward revision of 51k payrolls was the third in a row … haven’t seen that since the end of 2021

Cons Discr fell most today and is only beating Tech YTD; Financials continues to lead, followed by Comm Serv and Health Care … given big-tech and tech-related weakness, NASDAQ fell most today and is in last place YTD

December consumer credit +$40.847B vs. +$14.55B est. & -$5.371B prior (rev up from -$7.489B)

GDPNow for 1Q2025 at +2.9% (q/q annualized) per ⁦@AtlantaFed⁩

Big jump in February UMich 1y inflation expectations, up to 4.3% vs. 3.3% est. & 3.3% prior; 5-10y inflation expectations up to 3.3% vs. 3.2% est. & 3.2% prior

February UMich Consumer Sentiment Index down to 67.8 vs. 71.8 est. & 71.1 prior; current conditions down to 68.7; expectations down to 67.3