Zach from Ohio (in chicago)
@zach_from_ohio
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Your #1 source for political and urbanism takes from Ohio, Chicago, & beyond!
Chicago, IL
Joined August 2020
After visiting nearly all 88 counties, I decided to create a thread showcasing some of my favorite urban neighborhoods & small towns across Ohio!. I'll be updating this thread over time & will start out with a place from each region of Ohio!š§µ
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Tim Walz had so much potential to pull over young men, but we didnt take advantage of it at all. Walz shouldve been on Rogan, every Barstool podcast, hell even explicitly right wing podcasts. He is 100% able to shine in those environments but we didnt do it.
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All we need is for Texas to randomly flip blue once and the GOP will go into full panic mode. Itāll be a colossal disaster for them if they have to start treating Texas like a swing state & diverting tons of resources to what used to be their flagship state.
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@PopulismUpdates The fact that a huge chunk of America said āYa know, I like both of these guys!ā is really a sad sign of the times.
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I heard you guys like decaying Appalachian urban centers with weird transit infrastructure. Well, meet Johnstown, PA!. This former steel city has lost **73% of its population** declining from 67k to just 17k - Yet it still maintains one weird quirk - A funicular commuter rail!
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Gee, it's a shame we never had a candidate who had insane levels of Latino support along with white working class support in this time of dire need for the Democratic Party!
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Potentially big development: If the Philly turnout tracker is accurate, Puerto Rican turnout, which is traditionally very low, may already be reaching total 2020-level turnout. at 11:30am. Is the hype real?
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āAppalachian liberal urban enclaves arenāt real, they canāt hurt youā. Appalachian liberal urban enclaves:
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@ParkAveLoafers He can talk about football without sounding like a dweeb, thatās already better than 90% of Democrats.
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Good news: Urban turnout seems very high. Bad news: Rural turnout seems high.
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Today I visited Huntington, West Virginiaās 2nd largest city, & it blew me away in 2 ways:. 1. Very vibrant downtown & walkable neighborhoods w/ historic architecture and a ton of āmissing middleā.2. The worst most visible drug problem Ive seen in ANY city. Read below for more!š§µ
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Current prediction that Iāll likely flip flop on before the end of the night:. Kamala will win and it wonāt be particularly close. Sheāll outperform Biden in states like Georgia, Michigan, & PA, and in retrospect it will be incredibly obvious that was always gonna happen.
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@Yanakovich No oneās fighting for illegal immigrants to vote besides a few nutjobs. Thatās not, nor has ever been, legal. Legal immigrants that become citizens on the other hand have always been able to vote. And citizenship is a *long* process, itās not like they just get here and vote.
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@qlzsu Real ones remember when Georgia moved to tilt Biden and we all stepped away from the ledge.
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The point people are missing:. Obviously Iowa wonāt vote for Harris. The poll almost certainly canāt be right. But anything short of a 9%+ polling error from one of the most consistently accurate pollsters in the nation would mean Trump is almost certainly losing.
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@AlexSpeaksFacts People keep saying this but I genuinely have no idea how you could perceive him as weird on a personal level. He gives very strong dad/uncle energy. I know tons of guys that remind me of him. Iām genuinely interested in hearing your reasoning.
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The craziest part about this system? You can drive your car onto it. It's like a ferry on rails! . Correct me if I'm wrong but I can't think of any other rail transit in America quite like this
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So does Sherrod Brown, who over-performed Harris by 7.5%, run in the Ohio Senate special election? I feel like he wont but to me it seems really winnable.
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You just know the Tim Ryan ads wouldve been WILD if his campaign found this.
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@bo_austin_ Itās crazy the lengths Black Rifle Coffee has to go to in order to prove liking good coffee isnāt gay.
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This is gonna end up being a huge PR nightmare for Ohio State. I wonder if they regret forcefully cracking down on the tiny protest this morning, because this definitely ballooned into something much bigger.
Chaos on the @ohiostate campus as police drove demonstrators off the green and made well over a dozen arrests.
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Ok but for real, the fact thereās an actual sign in Youngstown for New York City is hilarious
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Although it is now mostly a tourist gimmick, the Johnstown Inclined Plane once acted as a crucial commuter link between Johnstown's hilltop neighborhoods & the many factories below. It's a miracle it survived deindustrialization while most similar systems failed
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I know itās extremely broken and probably wont last too much longer, but the fact Morgantown, WV has more commuter rail infastructure than Columbus and Cincy is quite sad. And a great testament to the power of Robert C Byrdās ability to secure porkā¦
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Something that always shocked me about Cleveland is how much old-money vibes there are. I'm sure Columbus suburbs are wealthier now, but the sprawling country estates & old mansions in places like the Chagrin Valley & Shaker really show just how wealthy Cleveland was in its prime
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Another observation:. Low white working class turnout while black turnout is almost up to 2020 levels already š.
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By the 1960s, the system had begun taking quite heavy financial losses, but the city realized the value in keeping it alive for tourism. Today, you can still take the funicular to the top of the hill to visit an upscale restaurant or take in the breathtaking views of the city!
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To win, the Democratic Party needs to start meeting Trump where he's at. More disinformation, more muddying the waters. We live in a post-truth society where people believe facebook posts your nutjob aunt posted more than real news. We have to start doing what the GOP does.
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The 2020 ā 2024 shift in the "Hawk Tuah" Precinct:. Biden +18.3% ā Harris +2% (Shift: R+16.3%). Nashville's one of several southern cities whose urban core's rapidly shifting right. They even had a Trump precinct in Downtown this year! The Hawk Tuah effect is real.
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@TulsiGabbard @JDVance1 Your grift has absolutely fallen apart to the point where youāre endorsing standard establishment Republicans and pretending theyāre some outsider heroes. It makes no sense even by your own morally-bankrupt standards.
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@hprescott1991 @ChristianWalk1r Why do so many so-called conservative Christians care more about the political ramifications than the fact that the man is a hypocrite who has repeatedly hurt his family and done things which are staunchly forbidden in the bible?.
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Although the US used to have a decent amount of funiculars/inclined railways, most have closed down & the remaining ones are almost exclusively for tourism, such as Pittsburgh's famous inclines. Nearby cities such as Cincinnati, Altoona, & Beaver Falls have lost theirs to time
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Either Ann Selzer found 808 of the most insane Iowan voters to poll, or the late undecideds breaking to Harris by double digit anecdotes we keep hearing are real
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The Republican Party is simply not prepared to deal with the prospect of a Democratic Party that embraces patriotic aesthetics.
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@TomJoudrey Obviously this is a terrible world salad but *please* tell me you arenāt actually a college professor who thinks āmankindā is sexist lol.
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@RightWingCope Kaitlyn and Joel Patrick came to my school's campus last year. Joel was so much worse than her, just yelling at black students for their parents being lazy. He kept saying how he's "not black, Im American.".
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@stephoneybunny @GubbaHomestead For them to be lies, you actually need proof that theyāre lies. Some idiot telling you to feed your baby honey online isnāt a valid source.
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Remember that Spongebob episode where Squidward moved to Columbus?
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You just know this small Arizona town went 75% for Kari Lake
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Downtown Tampa:.Biden +15 ā Trump +10 (Shift - R+25%!!). I don't think I grasped just how Joever it is for Florida Democrats until now! This level of density, with a streetcar network, should not be voting for Republicans!
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Assuming Marcy Kaptur's lead of ~1,000 votes holds, Ohio Democrats actually did a great job. Sherrod --> 7.5% overperformance (!!!).OH-1 --> Landsman (D) +8.OH-13 --> Sykes (D) +2.OH-9 --> Kaptur (D) +0.32.
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@_hinomotoani @yhdistyminen @iluminatibot Thatās not what a 15 minute city is lolā¦ It takes an extremely easy google search to see that it means ābeing able to reach all necessities within a 15 minute walkā - theres nothing about not being allowed to go more than 15 minutes away. Thatās completely nonsensical.
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While rural West Virginia has nearly completed its transition from safe Dem to safe GOP, the state was so blue that one notable straggler still lags behind. Meet Montgomery WV, an old coal town of 1.2k (w/ no college or tourism population) that's 75% white but voted Biden +7.6!
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@eyepatchjack Iām sorry but anyone who thought Trump won on election night was clearly not paying attention. Everyone under the sun was talking about the āred mirageā that would happen from counting election day votes first, it was a surprise to no one paying attention.
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@JDVance1 Imagine the outrage if someone pointed out the shooter was white and said āwhite people need to do some soul searchingā - Be a good Christian JD and focus on the victims who need support, not creating new hatred in a time of tragedy.
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I know itās technically unconstitutional, but realistically itās like 50/50 whether Trump runs again in 2028.
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Joe Bidenās about to be our generationās Jimmy Carter. A one term unpopular president who did everything right but got crucified for it anyways.
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Kamala having the number of Polish Americans in PA in her head really shows just how much debate prep she mustāve done - because that is a rather obscure topic to prepare to hit Trump on. But it was also very effective & delivered amazingly.
Kamala Harris: Why don't you tell the 800,000 Polish Americans in Pennsylvania, how quickly you would give up for the sake of favor and what you think is a friendship with what is known to be a dictator, who would eat you for lunch?
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@JeanlucBB0 @RichardHanania @BlueRocketParty I canāt imagine just how cooked someone would have to be to unironically think that.
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@OneNationCon @archit_703 The balls on that guy!. But what's the story here. ? Like a small island military outpost or something?.
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Here we go, the official Zach From Ohio 2024 OH Senate prediction!. Brown (D): 50.05%ā
.Moreno (R): 49.95%. Here's a county & swing map showing how I think it'll play out. I have a *lot* of thoughts behind this in the thread below!š§µ
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One of the most impressive overperformances of 2022 came from longtime incumbent Marcy Kaptur (D) who won the Trump +3 OH-9 by a staggering 13%!. Kaptur managed to flip Erie County, overperforming Biden by 18%, due to strong support in Sandusky, Perkins Twp, Vermillion, and Huron
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But for real, Democrats need to realize this is the era of populism. They're idiots for not going with Bernie in 2016. His presidency probably would've been lackluster but he almost certainly would've knocked Trump out of politics before he even started.
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What are some examples of urban neighborhoods that vote Republican?. One example is Charleston's South of Broad. Once the center of Southern slaveholder wealth, the neighborhood votes reliably GOP despite being very educated, wealthy & urban.
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Am I the only one that feels like weāre kinda phoning it in for Issue One? Weāre a month out and thereās no yard signs and nowhere near as much enthusiasm as there was for summerās issue one.
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Everyone's talking about NY-19, but NY-23 is shaping up to have an even more impressive overperformance for Democrats. 2020: 57.7R - 41.1D (R+16.6).2022: 53.3R - 46.7D (R+6.6)
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Yesterday, moderate Republican Jason Stephens managed to win an upset victory against Derek Merrin to become Ohio's next Speaker of the House, winning 54-43. Despite being in the superminority, Democrats were able to push Stephens to victory by throwing all 32 votes behind him.
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The difference 10 years makes in Cleveland's neighborhoodsš§µ. 2014 ā 2024 in Downtown (Euclid Ave):
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If she sings Womanās World,. Pennsylvania: Lean D ā> Safe R.
Katy Perry to appear at Kamala Harrisā rally in Pittsburgh tomorrow, November 4th.
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There were entire corners covered with people actively nodding-off from heroin creating scenes reminiscent of LAās Skid Row, but in a town of only 40,000. I was going to post them here but out of respect for drug abuse victims, I decided not to.
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I think itās safe to say her reputation is either ruined forever or sheāll go down as the only madman that predicted a silent 2008 Part 2.
WTF (I try to keep it professional here but this is crazy). Selzer poll in Iowa:. Kamala: 47%.Trump: 44%.
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Indianaās what people whoāve never been to Ohio think Ohio is.
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Broke: "The Bay Area is so expensive! I'll never be able to afford a San Francisco painted-lady!". Woke: "My brother in Christ, we have affordable San Francisco in Ohio"
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Downtown Huntingtonās one of the more successful examples of integrating shopping malls into downtowns. Opened in 2004, Pullman Square is an outdoor mall that blends into the city blocks around it. Ironically the mall areaās struggling now compared to the older downtown around it
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My thoughts are:. 1. Rurals are bad but we really don't know what urban turnout looks like.2. I still have some hope that Election Day turnout will be unexpectedly good in states like GA or PA.3. What the hell happened in Virginia.
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Well I did it. I made the worst GOP gerrymander of Ohio possible, a 14-1 map with only 1 remotely competitive, but trending red, district. This map packs the majority black areas of Cbus & Cleveland together in an "I-71 COI" district to keep the required majority black district
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@RightWingCope He made some girl start crying because he told her his mom was lazy for taking food stamps despite working two jobs. He just made it his goal that day to antagonize black kids for their experiences. What a piece of shit, he actually made Kaitlyn sound normal in comparison!.
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Another cool downtown urban renewal project is Heritage Station, a renovated train station home to gift shops and, believe it or not, the best gumbo Ive ever had! I highly recommend checking out Gumbo Stop Cafe!
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Despite Huntingtons many economic & social issues its downtown is one of the healthiest in Appalachia, likely due to Marshall Universityās 13,000 students just to the east. You can also tell the city was built to be much bigger with several huge skyscrapers for a city of just 40k
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The fact we actually need to defend New Jersey in 2028 now is one of the worst parts of this election. It was a *very* unexpected and devastating shift in a place we traditionally take for granted.
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@PeltolastanAlt True but Morgantownās the only one with a weird rapid transit system that weaves through the hills.
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"It's too expensive to buy a big historic house in a walkable neighborhood close to nature!". My brother in Christ, it's time to move to Northwest Akron, Ohio
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A year ago I divided Ohio into urban, suburban, rural, & small town precincts to analyze how candidates did in each .Let's compare Vance's performance to Trump's to see how he may affect the GOP's chances this November. Here's the map & one with swings, more detail below!š§µ
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@ConSelfOwns This is very true though. Before all the blue lives matter BS, most of those same people would trash talk cops all the time. No one liked the cops until recently. Respect? Yes. But everyone loved to complain about them being ridiculous.
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I hate to be that guy but. are we *sure* Rueben Gallego actually won? . This margins getting tight and it seems like the votes just keep being Republican
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Outside of Downtown, the crown jewell of the city is Ritter Park, which is one of the highest regarded urban parks in the country. It was extremely active & provides a variety of amenities from hiking to gardens to tennis courts
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@dawginhim For a while they were showing Pigeon Forge, TN as bigger than Nashville and Atlanta.
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I hate to admit it but the worst people I know were right. Trump was correct to campaign in places like New Mexico, Virginia, and New Jersey. They saw it coming and Democrats were caught sleeping. Including the Senate.
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Where Huntington really shined for me is in its neighborhoods around Ritter Park - These are home to stunning historic homes & a shockingly healthy mix of single-family & multi-family residential, giving it more āmissing middleā than many much larger cities
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This is gonna be the hottest take I'll ever publicly post, but here's my predictions for the August 8th referendum and the Protect Choice Ohio referendum. I predict a ~60% victory for No on Aug 8th with a pretty unpolarized map and a ~53% victory for pro-choice in November
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My Roman Empire is that thereās a major city of over 400,000 only 75 miles from Ohio that almost nobody living in Ohio has ever heard of
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Since this is popping off, make sure to follow if you wanna see more weird urban planning/transit anomalies - Ive especially been posting a lot of Appalachian cities recently!.
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For anyone wanting to learn more about the PRT, I recommend Tom Scottās video on it where he goes over the many challenges it faces
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Arizona really be like:. Centrist Kamala Harris? No thanks. Woke leftist Reuben Gallego? Ā”Viva la revolucion!.
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The fact remains that Ohio is still the best ābang-for-your-buckā state in the country. 1. Three major cities, all of which are undervalued, affordable, & increasingly walkable.2. Very close proximity to hills & the Great Lakes.3. Culturally & politically diverse across the state
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Why do I keep seeing BART trains going both directions on I-71 and I-76 between Akron and Columbus?. I have to have seen at least 20 over the past few years!
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@Vanoffanelia @jamie2181 You seriously believe that if kids donāt know who Helen Keller is that they actually will remember literally anything from the ā1619 Projectā either. ? Not to mention, barely any schools, if any, even teach that.
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On one hand, Huntingtonās one of the prettiest urban areas in Appalachia with a vibrant downtown & strong business community. Itās also a rare progressive & LGBT-friendly city in the region. But the dark undertones are present in the background (or foreground) everywhere.
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