PipeDream💤
@yeticapital99
Followers
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Following
1,523
Media
2,636
Statuses
26,046
#corn #soybeans #wheat #fertilizer #coal #cokingcoal #coaltwitter #oil #naturalgas #copper #nickel #zinc #steel #ironore #aluminum
Not investment advice
Joined July 2009
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Passion, persistence, and cold calling took me everywhere I ever wanted to go. Ace inspired me. I felt I had a chance to make it here, so I called him up. Had a job the next day. I’ll never forget the culture and meeting him on the 5th Floor. Magical, if only I could go back.
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We all hear the FCF, FCF Yield, EV/EBITDA, EPS stuff. These all matter in companies with consistent earnings like branded products. They do not even enter my analysis of resources. Why? Peak earnings in shortages do not last for long. What does matter is Macro. That’s 🔑
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A recession will end the boom in most resources before supply ever catches demand. Europe by all accounts is headed squarely in that direction right now. Manufacturing is contracting and the energy crunch just started. Position risk accordingly.
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1/n A quick informational thread on Yara, the largest
#Ammonia
producer in Europe. Yara restarted most production in Europe after prices spiked, indicative of a market that needs all available production running at full tilt.
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A stimulus induced commodity rally is NOT a legitimate supercycle as stimulus quickly fades. Demand must be a structural feature as it was in the early 2000’s supercycle.
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My days of active twittering are coming to an end y’all. I have found everything & more that I was looking for in terms of meeting great people & to further my career potential. I’ll mostly be a casual observer from this pt fwd & from time to time a host/co-host/guest on spaces.
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I have decided to leave twitter indefinitely. The negativity has outweighed the positives, so I decided there’s more positive ways to spend my time. I enjoyed meeting lots of you and hope to keep in touch with many of you. DM for contact info to stay in touch.
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You can't have a supercycle without China demand. It just isn't there and won't be, so what we have is a one off pandemic stimulus rally that absolutely will not have any legs long term as a super cycle. 100% certain. Fixed asset investment in China is required for a supercycle.
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100% loss is a probability here. Dust storm winds hit up to 110 mph. Storm hit 50% of USA
#wheat
acreage. This wheat was planted into a nice thick oat cover crop. Now it looks like clean bladed fallow and will probably die.
@respeculator
@dburner996
@BurggrabenH
@RoryDeverell
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I filed the 2000+ accounts I was following into lists to keep up easier. If you want to follow good accounts for grains, tin, dry bulk, etc it simplifies the feed into what sectors you want to read about. You can follow the list and the accounts in the list in one click. Enjoy
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Oil bulls rarely understand how to shift gears from bullish to bearish. Numerous experts I know were still looking for demand destruction when the signs were everywhere. Don’t get married to your position and look ourside your sector for weakness in the economy. This isn’t hard.
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~10 years ago an abusive boss destroyed my career. It took me a long time to bounce back from that for a number of reasons. I have twitter & many great people I met on here for helping on a new start. I am very thankful for all that. I now have renewed optimism about my future.
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NatGas &
#Ammonia
are going to continue to fly if Europe wants to subsidize NGas bills. There is one way out. A recession that starts in Europe. China by all measures is in the same boat because if they stimulate to try to offset the fixed asset developers, resources go bonkers
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I am not an
#oil
expert but this isn’t rocket science. What’s bad for freight, is bad for oil, is bad for the economy. I am 100% sure we have a recession coming. Look no further than the transportation sector for a pulse on consumer spending/economic health.
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Who wants to listen to a panel of fertilizer/grains/ngas/coal experts on a spaces call sometime soon? List in the comment section who you want me to have on.
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Sometime in May
@sohaibab9
and I are going to do an
#oil
spaces with
@BurggrabenH
and
@UrbanKaoboy
, will keep y’all posted when we set a date for it stay tuned
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Mark your calendar Sunday, we are delighted to have a fantastic group to discuss current events in Resources
@mfwarder
@C_Rich81
@YellowLabLife
@markfny
@cberry1
@acosgrove003
@WillisThomas
@nikosbits
@JimmyWar77
@CommoditiesGuy
@RoryDeverell
@WheatWatcher
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$CENX is my top pick in the
#Aluminum
sector. Aluminum is not my forte, but I wanted to take this sector as an example that knowledge in multiple resources can transfer into other resources. In situations where structural shifts are at play, SnD & Macro drive exceptional returns.
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A thread 🧵on
#Fertilizer
market structure, via the
@NutrienLTD
$NTR 2020 Fact Book
#Potash
#Phosphate
#Ammonia
#Urea
#Nitrogen
#Corn
#Wheat
#Soybeans
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Wow, what a great group today to chat with - Big thanks to
@MassifCap
@mfwarder
@YellowLabLife
@acosgrove003
@JimmyWar77
@BurggrabenH
@RussianGrainTra
@CommoditiesGuy
@WillisThomas
@cberry1
for making this call happen and a joy to listen to :)
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Thread 🧵 on why Macro is so important and valuable to your market skillset. If anyone has any questions am happy to help you learn. Macro is the most important skill you can develop in markets. Here is why:
We all hear the FCF, FCF Yield, EV/EBITDA, EPS stuff. These all matter in companies with consistent earnings like branded products. They do not even enter my analysis of resources. Why? Peak earnings in shortages do not last for long. What does matter is Macro. That’s 🔑
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~ 5 years ago CCP China was trying to force the price of
#coal
up, today they’re trying to keep it down.
#CoalTwitter
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@DrTedros
@MoetiTshidi
@IlonaKickbusch
@JeremyFarrar
@DrTomFrieden
@Chikwe_I
@FitzGab
@RaymondChambers
@tfrabiah
@allafrica
@africaupdates
Resign, CCP Puppet
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The next leg down in broader markets will be faster and deeper than what’s went on so far. It will put pressure on most resources as the market starts pricing in global recession probabilities more seriously.
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I spent 20 years doing markets all day everyday thinking someday I would run a hedge fund. While I succeeded in creating the skillset I needed, ultimately I don’t think it was worth it even if I raised the capital. Time is money and your youth is priceless. You can’t get it back.
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So much remarkable timeless wisdom and he did it with such unique humor
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Many of u sent msgs, it will take time 4 me to respond to each. Lots of things going on right now. I believe I made the right choice on my time. I was just here for marketing my work/employment potential & put out enough material 4 that. Cheers y’all, appreciate the support :)
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Y’all ready to dig in the dirt a bit for more detail on 🇨🇳 flooding? We know in China we won’t ever get the full truth on grain production isues(or coal stockpiles for that matter). So let’s do some digging. A thread 🧵 on China’s flooding/wheat production
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2.)Resources are meant to be bought long in shortages & sold when the macro turns negative. Macro drives all of this. What’s macro? The health and growth prospects of the global gears ⚙️ that drive the economy. SnD also more important. I am not trying to peoject earnings at all.
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🇷🇺had already banned exports on ammonium nitrate(Feb 2 - April 1) One source importing European fertilizer said that the news "had already been in the pipeline, and stocks had been built."
🇷🇺 represents ~2/3 of the world's annual 20 million mt
#ammoniumnitrate
production.
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Three hottest commodities as of today
1. Wheat
2. Aluminum
3. Coal - All types
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People will assume for example that if Oil goes up, their analysis was right. Let me tell y’all something. It’s not always your analysis that was right. It could be a # of things that caused it to go your way that you didn’t consider. All we have to work with is probabilities
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Whoever thinks this market is even close to a bottom needs to go to the casino where they have higher odds
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Debt is too high for rates this low. Resources/shipping are too jacked up for inflation to remain low. Low rates and
#inflation
can’t coexist, 1 has to give. The market is telling u it’s low rates. Given low rates are going to give, higher rates and a bubblemania can’t coexist
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When looking at the impact of
#Russia
combined with energy short induced European curtailments AND China energy constrained
#Urea
exports - the shortage of
#Nitrogen
#fertilizer
is very concerning
#UAN
#AmmoniumNitrate
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Ultimately,
#fertilizer
prices will push grain prices higher - which creates a loopback feed until there is demand destruction in grains. New record high prices are coming in
#Corn
#Wheat
and
#Soybeans
as fertilizer prices will ultimately reduce yields through demand destruction
CHART OF THE DAY: Fertilizer prices climb to a fresh record, as sales from Russia (one of the world's top producers) are disrupted, and super-expensive natural gas in Europe curtails output. The chart below is New Orleans urea price from 1977 to date |
#OATT
🌽🚜👩🌾🌾⚗️
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2K
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Does anyone want to hear me talk
#oil
and macro on a spaces call. Like if so, comments turned off
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Thermal
#Coal
is structurally more bullish than
#oil
. Most of everything about it is bullish, except the global economy is slowing down.
Coal's blistering price rally will continue into next year, says an Australian producer 🪨📈
Asian consumers including Japan are avoiding contracts for new cargoes from Russia, and a lack of alternatives is keeping the market tight, said Whitehaven Coal
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I will be removing all anon accounts who I do not know who they are. So if you want to stay following DM me. I will keep it private. Am eliminating the bad actors so this is necessary unfortunately.
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If y’all are enjoying
@sohaibab9
hosting oil conversations, tip the man and support his work/time. He didn’t put me up to this. Just see a young man working hard and right out of college that could use our support in whatever way you might be able to.
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#Wheat
has broken out to the upside. Dry weather in the USA compounds the Black Sea supply issues. I suspect new highs are yet to come.
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Shorting everything real estate/housing related. That’s the trade.
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I have debated whether or not to use twitter anymore. At this pt, the only way I am willing to continue to use the platform is w/ the comment section turned off. It’s unfortunate, but the amount of mental illness that reflects itself in the comments I don’t care to deal with.
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4.) How do you develop macro? Read the
@WSJ
macro type stuff everyday for years. Interest rates, currencies, political structure, infrastructure spending, free market structure, resources. These macro gears are all more important than running models.
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I came to twitter last fall to display what I believe to be the best returns in the world. I didn’t know how long it would take for someone to figure that out that could empower my skillset, but I believed what I built would ultimately be discovered for its true value & potential
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My mentor in markets has cancer and not much time left to live, the best trader I ever saw and also an overall good person. Life is a bitch sometimes. You leave this world the same way you came in, with nothing. Life is what’s priceless.
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A SWIFT block should have been put on every one of these Dictatorship Kleptocracies a long, long time ago. Sending our factories to the CCP was the dumbest thing America ever did.
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There will be a twitter spaces call soon to discuss this thread and questions people may have to help everyone that wants to learn about Macro/Resources. Please submit questions here as timezone differences globally might make the call unavailable to some of you. Thanks!
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A BIG Thanks to all that made this call possible!
@aquiferts
&
@WillisThomas
had exceptional insights on
#fertilizer
mkts, as did
@BurggrabenH
on
#NGas
,
@mfwarder
on
#coal
,
@6dollarwheatguy
@rgstone1
on farm level insight, and
@RoryDeverell
for Co-Hosting
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@MPelletierCIO
Buying oil stocks in front of a recession is a risk that shouldn’t be taken by any professional money manager. Risk 1st, profit potential 2nd.
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3.) There is an extreme weakness of Macro analysis talent coming out of the banks. Why? Probably too busy plugging models. That results in uncreative thought. It doesn’t ever develop macro skills unless they’re reading stuff off the job that will develop the macro skillset.
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For too long I was addicted to cannabis that kept me on the couch way too much instead of at the gym. I quit it and I naturally feel much better now and look better than when I was 25. About anything that’s good in life you have to work for.
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In 2006
#Coal
was booming, booming so hard they didn’t have the railcars to transport it all. It was China China China is industrializing that would last for years and years. We all know how that ended up 18 months later. Don’t get mesmerized by your bullish thesis. Be careful.
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1.) The way I am able to cover oil, copper, coal, grains, zinc, among other resources all at the same time is by understanding the basic macro structure of each resource along with global macroeconomic structure with a close eye on transportation. I also watch key sector analysts
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Y’all give
@agnostoxxx
a follow, one of the few I saw that steered clear of the selloff. He’ll show ya how things work if you pay attention to his tweets.
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A lot of people have dunked on $BTU. YTD it’s up 54%, even better than $AMR at 34%. Don’t lose sight of one simple fact. The world is still short all forms of energy and met coal.
#CoalTwitter
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Where did the
#oil
bulls go wrong?
1.) Demand was artificially distorted higher by the massive stimulus
2.) Macro turned down decisively in April
3.) Russia war premium evaporated
4.) Demand destruction was sped up by the refinery shortage
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T’was the night before Christmas 🎄 not any 🌾was in sight, but we all broke 🍞 after getting stupid long one night. Not any coal could be found, thanks to
#CoalTwitter
we all slept sound. Soybeans in the teens, life is good by all means. Long steel, for one more good meal 🥘
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We need a real estate crash to wipe out the froth and leverage that sent prices to unaffordable levels. Then we need to ban dictatorship jurisdictions and mega funds from purchasing our real estate. Problem would be solved.
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9.) If you enjoyed this thread, circle back to the beginning of the thread and Retweet to support my work :) Thank you!
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All the economic data that’s going to come out going forward for the foreseeable future is going to be worse than what the market understands. Shorting every bear rally.
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If
#Oil
was really that tight, we would be at $125+ right now. It’s moderately tight at ~ $80.
It’s not tight enough according to the market for me to get excited about it as a long. Oil bulls will debate this but that’s the pricing reality against negative European macro.
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So grateful for my twitter friends that have backed my work. Am doing backflips right now over a couple fantastic opportunities. That’s all a guy can ask for, opportunity.
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A thread of my notes. There is no way, no chance the
#Russia
#wheat
crop is even anything close to 70mt. A 25% cut from 80mt is being optimistic considering the regions affected by record heat and a drought. Going into the season, it was largely dry from last years record heat
Kazakhstan reported a 24% decline. Russian consultants are in the 76mt🥴 range, 5mt off Kremlin #’s. Look at both the maps where production is concentrated. There is too much wheat in dry hot areas. A lot was also planted into dust. The USDA needs bigger scissors
@SethMeyerMU
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The energy crisis will last for years. This and the rate hikes will pressure broad markets deeper and for longer than any period in our lifetime.
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Margin calls forced
#wheat
below the risk that the market has to price in. That dip was a gift. Have a good weekend y’all. Tune in Sunday for our Resources Roundtable. See you then :)
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The Macro skillset value isn’t in selling tops or buying bottoms primarily- it’s about avoiding catastrophic risk to your capital
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Lots of hedge fund manager careers were ended in 2008 because they weren’t cautious about the recession potential resources posed leading up to it in 2006/07. Its far better to be too early on risk positioning for a recession than it is to be bullish when the macro is bearish.
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We’re ALL blessed by creation and have unlimited potential if we realize that. Happy Holidays y’all, am signing off over the break. Will be back at it in 2022.
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The economy can only recover when resource, housing, and transportation prices come down. There is no such thing as a soft landing, that means the deck absolutely must be cleared first. A recession was inevitable because of the shortages and sky high prices in these key sectors.
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Time to close this positioning out except for the $ARKK short, it’s been a good run. Macro has turned too much for the risk profile.
$ARKK ~25%
$AA ~25%
$CENX ~50%
$AMR ~100%
$ARCH~ 50%
$HCC ~45%
$TECK ~30%
$AFM.V ~20%
$FCX ~15%
$X ~50%
Short $ARKK, long $AA $CENX $AMR $ARCH $HCC $TECK $AFM.V $FCX $X $GLEN.L
Hedged Bullish
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What are
#cokingcoal
markets telling us? If demand was super strong & the global economy was healthy these prices would also be near highs or setting new highs. This aligns with
#oil
price action. When things align you can continue to form a view of what the market is telling you
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I’m not wrong on oil, just early thus far. Nobody hits everything perfectly on timing, the important thing is to be right at the end of the trade & to avoid holding a bullish position in a declining macro environment. Lots of these famous oil bulls have a history of big losses.
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#wheat
is undervalued here, Russia isn’t telling the truth. Let’s do a fresh dig, gonna be a multi day/week thread once I get going on this one. It’s time to be a buyer below $6 with a sell point of $6.50-7.
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Y’all give
@YellowLabLife
and
@twebs
a follow. Both kindly helped me out with some financial modeling work. If you’re into resources/markets they are both a must follow. Both have lots of great experience and you’ll learn a whole bunch following their work. Thanks y’all!
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