Eduardo Vanin
@EduardoVanin4
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Soybean Analyst for Brazilian Market.
Curitiba, Brazil
Joined October 2019
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Those are not sand dunes!! Cargill facility at Boa Esperança MT
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Agrinvest Weekend. Destaques:
- China: A demanda interna continua fraca (Capa)
- Inflação no Brasil está comportada
- Trigo: A Rússia está perdendo força no Mar
- Ucrânia: Dados de exportação de grãos
- Fertilizantes: Resumo semanal das Matérias-Primas
- Complexo Soja: Farelo na
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Agrinvest Weekend. Destaques:
- a safra de trigo no Brz
- a logística da Ukr
- as tendências para o óleo de soja e do farelo
- o que esperar do câmbio
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Agrinvest Weekend
- Programas americanos de exportação
- Movimento dos preços dos fertilizantes
- Evolução dos programas na UKR
- Mercados na Ásia - encerramento da semana
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AGRINVEST WEEKEND - *Enviado do meu APP Agrinvest GO... Informação Rápida, Direta e Simples*
Assuntos:
- A inflação no Brz;
- A UKR ainda não está fazendo falta para o milho;
- Mercado do óleo de soja;
- Mercado do trigo;
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Agrinvest Weekend. Temas:
- Qualidade do trigo;
- A UKR voltou a embarcar navios panamax de milho;
- Fertilizantes;
- Programa americano da soja;
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It was an active day for
#soybean
New crop in Brz. Premiums for New Crop are testing new lows.
DM me if you would like to receive daily prices from Brz mkt.
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Who shared this video quoted "this farm in Nova Mutum city - Mato Grosso - has
#corn
produced in 2022 storaged in vertical silos and 2023 safrinha storaged in bags". This show how late is the farmer selling in Brz. Basis remain under pressure.
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We have adjusted our soybean production forecast, reducing it from 149.7 million tons in January to 147.9 million tons this month. This revision reflects mixed regional prospects; while production estimates for Mato Grosso (MT) have been increased, we have scaled down projections
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Take a look at the weekly variation. Soybean premiums have dropped, but meal and soybean oil haven't. Looking back at last year, it seems only a matter of time before soybean products also follow the soybean trend.
DM me if you want to receive daily prices and a daily report.
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Fertilizer purchases in Brazil for soybean 2024-25. The pace is ahead of LY, mainly for Potash, which is a good proxy for acreage increase. Some takeaways:
1) producers are doing more barter this year due to the more restricted credit availabity
2) more barter = strongher farmer
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Brz
#corn
premiums are rising out of the Northern ports like Barcarena. The offers there, are more expensive today than Santos, which is a very uncommon.
If want to receive Daily corn and soybean cash prices DM me.
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I'd like to share a few takeaways from a call I had this morning with our brokers and traders. The subject was Arc Norte Logistics.
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Talked to a big farmer this morning (186k acres). He is going to put his corn in bags and hold it till Feb next year. Many farmers in Brz are doing the same.
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Paranaguá Port blocked. Nominations at Paranaguá port, 550k of sb, 270k smeal and 660k of corn.
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This is not pineapple crop. Its corn in the south of Brazil. They say 40% crop fall... at least.
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Brz Market Report.
Discover the latest trends in the Brazilian and international grain markets! Click here to start your trial and access daily price updates and insightful market analyses.
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Soybean premiums Fob Paranaguá closed firmer today, but the week was negative. CFR China down 30 c/b Friday vs Friday.
Follow the latest trends in the Brazilian and international cash grain markets! Click here to start your trial and access daily price updates and insightful
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Daily Brz cash market report. For those interested in receiving it, please let me know.
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South of Mato Grosso and parts of Mato Grosso do Sul are blocked. Soon corn shipment will be affected.
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BRZ
#corn
futures hit limit up. National safrinha corn seed purchases is way below the average. Brz farmers up North will reduce the seed quality and the use of P and N. Input dealers are reporting sales cancelations due to the lower profitability and the window risk.
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Within just two days, Mato Grosso has seen two new bankruptcy filings, involving over 100 million Brazilian Reais. The table below shows that at the current prices, farmers are losing $100 per hectare.
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Brz-US spread for Feb and March CFR China increased this week by 15 c/b. Freights are the reason.
For full report:
If you want a tryal, send me a DM.
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Brz Markets - Recap: This week brokers say Sino have bought 8-10 cargoes. Today brokers mentioned rumors at +200h for Jan out of the PNW. Private crushers purchased Brz soy for Dec ystd and for Jan overnight. Brokers said Sino is rotating its stocks. For corn market, players in
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The great doubt: Did the recent rains and dropping temperatures arrive too late for many parts of Mato Grosso? 5% yield loss is consensus for MT for while, but I heard from producers and agronomists -15% is possible for many regions. Let's see what IMEA say after the next week.
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Floods in Brz. There were some soybean trades reported in the CFR China – no DCE till Monday. Levels are close to the recent highs. Today we may see FX in Brazil dropping, following the stocks rally and Moody´s revision for Brz credit note – from stable to positive. Yesterday,
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#Corn
Futures in Brz jumped today due to the weather. A heat dome will take temperatures to over 40 °C (>104 F) this week, which is linked to El Niño presence.
The map Shows the Max Temps today. The heat dome will persist up to the weekend.
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The total fertilizer in the lineup in Brz indicates a decrease in urea imports and an increase in potash supplies. This is an indication that Brz farmers are going to use less N in the safrinha crop and is going to increase soybean area for 2024-25.
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Besides the rains, temperatures remain extremely high in the center of Brz. More reports in Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul about cotton producers giving up from beans in favor to cotton. They should replant beans, but they don´t want to risk the cotton window.
>> 46°C = 115F
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Soybean basis bounced on Fob and also in the CFR. Fob March shipment traded 20 cents above vs yesterday. In the CFR China, bids climbed by 10 cents vs overnight. Flat price rose by 4 BRL per sack, the best day of the year for Brz farmers. Even though, Farmer selling was not great
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Safrinha Corn seed sales pace. In the latest update, sales reached 66%, 26 p.p. behind the 3Y average.
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#corn
ethanol margins in Brazil are sinking. For the first time since april 2020 margins are negative in MT. Ethanol prices keep falling.
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The soybean export program reached 67.8 million tons by June 12, 0.2 million tons above LY.
- Ports are more efficient this year. Corn program finished earlier and less rain in Santos and Pagua ports.
- The sb harvest was much faster than normal.
- Exporters anticipated
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Yesterday in Brazil, another significant wave of soybean farmer selling was reported, with volumes mentioned at 900,000 tons and some estimates reaching as high as 1.1 million tons. FOB premiums declined by 10 cents for both crops. Regarding CFR trades, more trades for April were
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Due to the drop of the input costs, the current profitability for soybean 2024-25 is not bad. According to Embrapa, Brz still has 28 Mi hectares of degradeted pastures, while at least 20 Mi has intermediary fertility, are close to roads and have minimum rainfall requirement per
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The soybean paper market surged last week, witnessing increased trading activity for March, April, May, and June contracts. The upward trajectory of the flat price curve signals a growing aggressiveness in the market, prompting heightened interest in ownership. Notably, premiums
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Soybean premiums Fob Brz are heavy today for New Crop. Chinese demand is larger and Sino should buy more this season. Brz Crop will be smaller than the LY (my view) and basis are way cheaper than the LY at the same time of the year. Ocean freight is bit cheaper and cbot is lower.
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Brazilian soybeans are becoming more expensive. The past week has seen a significant increase in activity, with farmer selling doubling compared to the previous week, alongside an improvement in flat prices. May futures have risen by 9 cents, and the basis in the CFR China market
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Soybean premiums fell again. Crushing margins in Brazil are improving. However, Farmer selling remains very slow.
If you want to receive daily prices DM me.
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Soybean Shipments: Brz shipped 100.1 Mi t of sb in 2023 up to Dec 26th. There are still 900k tons in nominations for Dec...
Corn Shipments: Brazil shipped 48.9 million tons of in 2023 up to Dec 26th. There are still 1.5 Mi t nominated for Dec and 2.6 Mi for Jan. At the current
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Dalian soybean meal hit limit up of 8%. Chinese crusher have a difficult task. Cover up 22-26 Mi tons of soybean till the end of July.
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Monday Talk with Brz Farmers: Highlights
+ Scattered rains for most part of Mato Grosso (MT) in the last 7 days;
+ The soybeans from highway 163 are the earliest planted, the best region till now. However, this soybean is now in the reproductive phase, when water demand more than
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Soybean basis CFR China is facing renewed downward pressure. Rumors on Friday at +5/+0sh for March in the CFR. In the Fob Paranaguá market, trades for March at -125sh, surpassing the previous low of -123sh observed in August last year... On the demand front, soybean meal on the
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Soybean premiums dropped today for both crops. It was one of the most active days for farmer selling I have ever seen. The FX reached its highest level in 30 months, and the approaching deadline for input purchases contributed.
Send me DM if you want to receive daily cash prices
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Soybean premiums in Brz made new highs today. Farmer selling was strong for both crops. FX hit 13 months high at 5.29.
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Do you still Believe Mato Grosso will plant
#corn
in 2024? The table shows the profitability in $/hectare for different combinations of flat price for September shipment and yields - 120 sacks per hectare is a very optimistic view for running conditions.
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The only way to cool off in Brazil on these very hot days. This is my third son, Antonio. He turned 2 on Jan 27th.
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Soybean Shortage Becoming More Evident
Farmer selling of soybeans and corn yesterday was very disappointing in Brazil, not because farmers were unwilling to sell, but due to the widening bid/offer spread. Few trades reported in MT at 122 BRL per sack along Highway 163, 120 BRL in
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West of Mato Grosso. The
#soybean
sanitary void in MT was anticipated by 15 days. There will be soybean in Mato Grosso before Christmas.
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Soybean yield in Mato Grosso is surprising upwards (76,82 b/a)
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Farmer selling in Brazil remains strong
Another week of strong farmer selling in Brazil – Corn at 1.8 million tons and soybeans at 3 million. For corn, last week represented the strongest week since September last year. In the past two weeks, a rising FX and falling corn flat
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#Soybean
Harvest in Mato Grosso reaced 65.2% and truck freight rate is 20% lower than the LY. How to explain that? The table below shows truck freight Sorriso-Santos. Another anomaly: the spread between Mato Grosso and Parana is 6 BRL per sack, or 55 c/b. This spread should be at
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Soybean harvest delay. I have spoken today with a coop in Mato Grosso, with 270k acres. They say harvest reached to 7% so far. The average is 30%. They say it's too early to talk about yield losses. They expect 3 to 5 bushels more than LY. This group sold 35% vs avrg of 60%.
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The Brz Soybean export program is losing rhythm. Up to March 13th, the total committed to export reached 27.77 Mi t vs 27.9 Mi t LY. This difference will grow fast in the coming weeks. The main reason is the very expensive replacement cost CFR China.
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Purchases of fertilizer for the soybean 24-25 crop in Brazil have reached 69%, ahead of last year. This aligns with faster farmer selling, as the forward sales for the new crop are close to 10%, which is 5 percentage points ahead of last year. On the demand side, Chinese crushers
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The soybean export program is still above last year, but daily shipment is losing rhythm. Total nomination is 2 Mi tons below LY. Soon, the export program will be smaller. This trend will confirm whether USDA is wrong about Brz crop size and export figure.
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Soybean premiums and meal prices continue to ascend. While farmer selling has notably improved, this uptick appears insufficient to fully satisfy the domestic and Chinese demand.
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Brz Soybean for Aug CFR China just have become more expensive than PNW for Sep-Oct.
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Soybean Farmer selling in Brazil is more active. Soybean premiums in Paranaguá fell ystd, with rumors of April at -45sk, a 12-cent drop compared to last Friday. This drop is attributed to the increase in farmer selling. Our assessment pegs the volume at 600k tons yesterday,
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The soybean crop failure in RS could be greater. The discussion continues to focus on the soybean crop failure in Rio Grande do Sul. The south of Brazil was once again hit by torrential rain this weekend. Estimates for soybeans that have yet to be harvested are at around 18%,
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Soybean premiums FOB continue to strengthen. Farmer selling of soybeans and corn was minimal ystd. Bean oil prices in Brazil are crazy, with Mato Grosso trading eq. Fob at +400Q for spot delivery... Smeal and soil sales in China remain very thin. Soybean and meal inventories at
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Soybean premiums Fob Paranaguá fell by 10 cents ystd, due to better farmer selling. Farmer selling yesterday reached 600k tons, the doubles the daily average for this month... In the cash market in Mato Grosso, trades were reported between 102 BRL to 105 BRL per sack for April
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The flat prices for soybean and corn at Brazilian FOB ports are on a downward trend, exacerbating the challenges of origination and compressing margins further. There were rumors of additional soybean trades to the US yesterday – the calculation seems good... The corn market in
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Soybean-corn ratios in Brazil. Producers keep selling beans and holding corn. The silos bag imports reached new record high in 12 months till May, same pattern of the LY.
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Soybean premiums in Paranagua renew the highs of the season. June traded at +17sn. Brz soybean is getting expensive, but it is still the cheapest CFR China for JJA.
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Chinese buying shifted to Brazil this week. Traders reported at least 10 cargoes @ +420X for oct. Traders also reported very few cargoes ou of PNW for dec @ +370F. The US is losing very important chunk of their expo program.
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Too much rain in the west of Paraná state, the 3th largest soybean producer. Paraguay is in the same situation. More rain is coming for the next 5 days. There are farmers talking about replant already.
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Soybean trades reported out the US overnight. Rain reports in the central part of Brazil in the last 48 hours. Temps should rise again, and rain should again concentrate down the South for 7 days. Many reports of improving conditions for Northern states after the 7 last days of
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#Soybean
market very firm today. Farmer selling losing steam. If you want prices and comments about Brz market during the day send me a DM. Thanks.
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The
#soybean
basis in Sorriso-MT stands as the firmest in comparison to the 5Y average, which is primarily due to crop failure and the significant reliance of exporters on the state to fulfill their export programs.
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Flat prices for soybeans and corn at Brazilian FOB ports are experiencing a downward trend, further complicating origination efforts, and squeezing origination margins. Market participants estimate that 15 soybean cargoes were traded on CFR China last week – even though lower
1
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#Soybean
basis rose in the CFR market, following Fob Brz levels. Last week was the season's peak for soybean farmer selling, with 3.55 Mi tons. Despite strong FS, soybean premiums closed the week at the season's high... In China, soybean stocks at ports increased by 600,000 tons
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110 bags of
#corn
. Equivalent to 21.7k tons. This is the largest elevator in the North of Mato Grosso. IMEA estimate 33% of harvest till last friday. Corn flat price in Mato Grosso went down, but basis is way up the bottom.
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2nd corn crop failure in Rio Grande do Sul, the largest summer corn producer in Brasil - 6 Mi t. Consumers estimate 30% so far. Maps are not friendly for 15 days.
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Soybean premiums in Brz and Arg are firmer this week. In both cases, slow farmer selling and bad margins are the main reasons.
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This chart shows the comparison between safrinha
#corn
2024 profitability (gray line) and cotton profitability (dark line) in Mato Grosso. Both in BRL per hectare.
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An important debate for
#corn
market in 2024. The safrinha acreage... The latest corn seed sales assessment showed 22 percent points behind the 3-Y average.
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A farmer of east of Mato Grosso (Canarana city) reported to me burning fields cause of lack of rain. Soybean fields burning... crazy season.
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Soybean premiums Fob are firmer again. Stronger Real and absent farmer selling. Rumors of trades CFR China for Feb this afternoon (no datails yet).
2
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Maps show dry weather across Brazil for the next 7 days, followed by more rains favoring the South – this week tradings and local entities will have a better idea about the soybean crop failure in Rio Grande do Sul state. Till now the average estimate is 1.5-2.0 Mi tons. The
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US beans are becoming cheaper than Brz. Trades reported ystd afternoon USG for Sep shipment cheaper than Brazil – commercial crushers. Today, trades reported from Brz for Sep 5 c lower than ystd. FOB premiums in Paguá closed the day higher. Farmer selling was minimal—the week's
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